For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves hit rock bottom in head coach Butch Jones' third season after early 73-0 and 37-3 losses to Oklahoma and Memphis. But turning to Jaylen Raynor saved the 2023-24 season as Arkansas State reached a bowl game. Last season, Arkansas State finished 8-5 after beating Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl by a 38-31 score. Raynor passed for 2783 yards and added another 387 yards on the ground. He orchestrated three game-winning drives with less than two minutes left in the game — and now he returns for his junior season. Give credit to Jones for staying resolved to building this program patiently by focusing on developing his good recruiting classes. Arkansas State is one of just three FBS programs that have seen their win total increase for three straight years (which does speak to how far they fell in 2021 when they finished 2-10). But while Raynor returns to lead the offense, only four other starters come back on both sides of the ball. There are some red flags. Despite going 5-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, they got outgained by -61 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play. They won all seven of their games decided by one scoring possession. BYU: After a 5-7 season two years ago, where the Cougars only finished 2-7 in their first season in the Big 12 conference, I was concerned that they would continue to struggle departing their independent status and competing in a Power Four conference. But BYU combatted those concerns last season with an 11-2 campaign that ended with a 36-14 victory against conference rival Colorado in the Alamo Bowl. They finished 7-2 against Big 12 opponents. It turns out that the Cougars’ physical style of play on both sides of the ball presented an interesting contrast to the offensive-minded spread attacks that dominate the conference. I have been skeptical for years, but respect must be afforded to head coach Kalani Sitake after nine seasons with the program. He is finding success by cultivating a culture that emphasizes development from within. Nine starters return from that group — but there are issues at quarterback. After senior starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff was issued a civil lawsuit for rape, BYU suspended him for violating their moral code that prohibits pre-marital sex, an indiscretion the Mormon institution could not ignore even after the legal charges were dismissed. In response, Retzlaff transferred to Tulane in New Orleans, where such moral codes do not exist. Sitake is expected to turn to true freshman Bear Bachmeier as his starting quarterback. The Cougars’ defense was outstanding last season by holding their opponents to 308.8 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 19.6 Points-Per-Game, ranking 13th and 18th in the nation. But that unit lost defensive end Tyler Batty to the NFL and then linebacker Harrison Taggart in the transfer portal after spring practice. This is a team that survived a +2 net win margin in games decided by one-scoring possession. Four of their 11 victories were decided by just 13 combined points. DELAWARE: The Blue Hens make their debut at the FBS level after going 26-11 in the first three seasons under head coach Ryan Carty in the FCS. They come off a 9-2 campaign last year, which included a 6-2 record in the Colonial Athletic Association. Carty played the redshirt game by using many of his better players in only three games to preserve their eligibility for this important first season in Conference USA. Fifteen starters are back from that group. On defense, coordinator Manny Rojas operates a 3-3-5 scheme. Seventeen of the 22 players who registered at least double-digit tackles are back. Size up-front will be an issue with only one defensive lineman weighing more than 2800 pounds. Carty was the former offensive coordinator for Sam Houston before taking the Delaware head coaching job. Offensive coordinator Terence Archer and Carty deploy a spread offense with RPO principles. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL: I was worried about Mike MacIntyre being on the hot seat after two straight 4-8 campaigns as the Golden Panthers head coach. After another 4-8 season, FIU did move on from MacIntyre after a snake-bitten year. They outgained their Conference USA opponents by +15 net Yards-Per-Game but lost four of their five games decided by one scoring possession. This is a tough place to win. In their 21 years as an FBS program, they have enjoyed only four winning seasons — and they have a 13-40 mark in the last five years. Now, after two reasonable hires in MacIntyre and Butch Davis previously, who both had success revitalizing Power Five conference programs, the administration went into a different direction by hiring former Florida A&M head coach Willie Simmons. In six seasons there, he posted a 66-24 record. He has posted a winning season in all eight of his years as a head coach. After serving as the running backs coach at Duke last year, Simmons returns to Florida, where he knows the high school ranks very well after his six years leading an HBCU program in the state. The hope is that recruiting will improve, yet developing an NIL program seems essential. MacIntyre was losing too many players in the transfer portal — and seven players left in the offseason for Power Four conference programs, which suggests the problem is not talent on the roster. Simmons was aggressive, bringing in players through the portal, but at least he did not have to worry about his quarterback. After initially considering entering the portal, Simmons convinced junior Keyone Jenkins to return for his third year as their starting quarterback. In his two previous seasons, he has thrown for 4971 yards with 33 touchdown passes, 19 interceptions, and eight rushing touchdowns. GEORGIA STATE: Considering the circumstances that rookie head coach Dell McGee inherited last year, the Panthers’ season was a moderate success. The Panthers’ previous head coach, Shawn Elliott, left to take the linebackers coaching job (and back with his family) at South Carolina two days into spring practice last year. Predictably, there was a mass exodus of players entering the transfer portal after spring practice. But McGee led Georgia State to an upset victory against Vanderbilt in September. The Panthers finished 3-9 last year with only one victory in their eight games in the Sun Belt Conference, but they were only outgained by -47 net Yards-Per-Game against those conference opponents. The program was hit hard once again in the transfer portal with nearly 40 players exiting the team, but perhaps McGee was fine with that exodus since he is committed to revamping the roster. He was active in the transfer portal, bringing in a wide range of players from the SEC to FCS programs to the junior college ranks. McGee also brought in one of the best high school recruiting classes of all the Group of Five programs with the benefit of a full offseason. The defense needs to improve after they surrendered 418.7 total Yards-Per-Game and 33.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 113th and 116th in the nation last season. McGee replaced both coordinators with more time to investigate potential candidates. The defense will be run by Travis Pearson, who is a veteran who coached cornerbacks at Coastal Carolina the last three seasons and previously was the DC for South Alabama a decade ago. He tapped former Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns head coach Hue Jackson to take over the offense. He has multiple stints in the NFL and in college as an offensive coordinator. The roster is almost entirely new, but McGee has assembled an intriguing coaching staff and seems committed to developing this program the right way. LIBERTY: The Flames took a step back last season following a 13-1 campaign two years ago. They finished with an 8-4 record after a listless 26-7 loss against Buffalo with a depleted roster in the Bahamas Bowl. The trials for third-year head coach Jamey Chadwell continued in the offseason after quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley transferred out of the program — and they lost T.J. Bush, their leading sack artist last season, who transferred to California after spring practice. Chadwell was aggressive in the transfer portal to replenish the roster. He looked back to his previous team to bring in junior Ethan Vasko to run the offense. The athletic runner may be a better fit for Chadwell’s offense than Salter was — but he completed only 54.8% of his passes last year. That 13-1 season came from a roster built primarily by previous head coach Hugh Freeze. With Chadwell now becoming so dependent on the transfer portal, this may be the result of one step forward after two steps, given the departures occurring on his watch. And with all programs that bring in a high number of new players from other teams, establishing team chemistry is never a given.LOUISIANA TECH: After three straight 3-9 seasons, head coach Sunny Cumbie did just enough to keep his job for a fourth season, with the team going 5-7 in the regular season, before losing by a 27-6 score in the Independence Bowl to an Army team that had just played two weeks prior. The Bulldogs were probably better than their record when considering that they outgained their Conference USA opponents by +79 net Yards-Per-Game. They lost three games in overtime. The big improvement came on defense under first-year defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson. After ranking 114th and 117th in the nation by giving up 33.4 PPG and 418.2 YPG two years ago, they gave up only 308.4 total YPG, which resulted in 21.0 PPG, ranking 12th and 26th in the FBS. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, eight starters from that unit are gone — and Johnson left the program to take the same position at Coastal Carolina. The biggest losses were on the defensive line, with eight of the 11 players who logged in at least 200 snaps gone. But the back seven does return seven of the eight players who played at least 250 snaps last season. The offense returns five starters, including sophomore quarterback Evan Bullock, who completed 65.8% of his passes in nine starts. What was most impressive about his season was that he threw only three interceptions in 300 pass attempts. But Cumbie needs to fix his side of the ball. The former TCU and Texas Tech offensive coordinators’ Air Raid attack only generated 332.9 total YPG and 20.9 PPG, ranking 111th and 118th in the FBS. Louisiana Tech has not won more than five games in a season since 2019. Losing 12 of the 16 games decided by one scoring possession since 2022, Cumbie took over is not helping matters. But with an 11-26 record in his three seasons, Cumbie remains on the hot seat this season with urgency that the offense improves. MARSHALL: The Thundering Herd enjoyed their best season in head coach Charles Huff’s four years with the program as they finished a 10-2 campaign by crushing UL-Louisiana on the road by a 31-3 score to win the Sun Belt Conference championship game. But within the next week, Huff left the program to take over at Southern Mississippi, with many of his Marshall players entering the transfer portal to join him. When the dust settled, 47 players left the program in the offseason. The Marshall administration seemed content to let Huff leave the program in what appeared to be a contentious relationship. They quickly tapped North Carolina State defensive coordinator Tony Gibson as their next head coach. He brought in 62 players in the portal. Establishing a new culture and finding team chemistry will be a challenge for this program, which has more continuity at Southern Mississippi. But Gibson is well-respected in coaching circles, and he should be given the time to build this program in his image. MEMPHIS: The Tigers enjoyed another top-level performance for a Group of Five program by finishing 11-2 after their 42-37 victory against West Virginia in the Frisco Bowl. Sixth-year head coach Ryan Silverfield has developed one of the best non-Power Four conference programs. He brought in the top-rated recruiting class for Group of Five programs — and the financial support from FedEx has helped them compete in the NIL world. But Memphis lost 35 seniors to graduation, so the foundations of this program will be challenged this season. On defense, 19 of the 22 players who logged in 100 or more snaps are gone. On offense, the Tigers must replace four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, who passed for over 14,000 yards in his career. Silverfield tapped dual-threat quarterback Brendon Lewis from Nevada as his next starting quarterback. Memphis is clearly at the top of the food chain when it comes to Group of Five programs. Whether it can extend to an American Conference championship or even an appearance in the college football playoffs is another question altogether. In Silverfield’s tenure, they usually fall a game or two short. MIDDLE TENNESSEE: The Blue Raiders struggled in their first season under head coach Derek Mason. They finished with a 3-9 record — and it could have been worse since they won three of the four games they played that were decided by one scoring possession. They got outscored by a 41-17 margin in their nine losses. This year’s team does have more continuity than many of their Conference USA rivals. Six starters are back on an offense that did not score 24 or more points against an FBS opponent. Senior quarterback Nicholas Vattiato is back to lead the offense for the third straight season. He once again passed for exactly 3092 yards last year — but the offensive line needs to improve. The defense has seven starters back from a unit that ranked 121st and 119th in the FBS by surrendering 449.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.3 Points-Per-Game. Mason brought in three transfers and two junior college players to boost the talent on that side of the ball. Mason demonstrated he is a good head coach in his seven seasons as the head coach at Vanderbilt. He is trying to build this program patiently — and his commitment to player development should produce improvements on both sides of the ball. Whether or not there is enough talent to reach a bowl game remains to be seen. NEW MEXICO STATE: In hindsight, the opportunity to hire Jerry Kill, whose potentially brilliant career as a head coach has been held back by his health issues, offered the Aggies a great opportunity to advance this football program that reached the Conference USA championship game two years ago under his guidance. After he left to become the chief consultant to the head coach and senior offensive advisor at Vanderbilt last year, New Mexico State elevated wide receivers coach and former UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez as their next head coach. The team went 3-9 overall and 2-6 in Conference USA play. Seven starters return from that group. The question becomes: was this football program simply the beneficiary of the positive Kill bounce — or are there foundational reasons why we should expect the Aggies to return to competing for a Conference USA title? Having to use four quarterbacks last year did not help the cause. Sanchez brought in former Montana quarterback Logan Fife to compete for the starting job. After taking over halfway through the season last year, he passed 1890 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions last year for the Grizzlies. SOUTH ALABAMA: The Jaguars performed well under first-year head coach Major Applewhite. They won five of their last seven games, including winning the Salute to Veterans bowl game against Western Michigan by a 30-23 score. It could even have been a better season when considering they blew three fourth quarter leads. They lost four of their six games, which were decided by one scoring possession. Admittedly, they are getting crushed in the transfer portal — they lost 11 expected starters in the offseason this year. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Gio Lopez transferred to North Carolina after spring practice. The secondary lost four cornerbacks in the portal. The defensive line replaces more than 100 starts from either graduation or the transfer portal. But Applewhite gets back junior quarterback Bishop Davenport, who was the MVP of their bowl game — and he usually oversees productive offenses. Last year, South Alabama generated 442.2 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 18th and tied for 19th in the nation. But can the defense keep up, given all the attrition?TEXAS STATE: It was deja vu all over again for the Bobcats last season as they finished the year with an 8-5 record after a win in the First Responder Bowl, this time defeating North Texas by a 30-28 score. They did win one more game in Sun Belt Conference play — and after outgaining their conference opponents by +50 net Yards-Per-Game two years ago, they led the conference last season with a +134 net YPG mark. Third-year head coach G.J. Kinne was once again hit hard in the transfer portal by Power Four conference programs — almost 20 contributors from last season left the program. Another 22 seniors graduated. But Kinne continues to be aggressive in the transfer portal himself as he brought in 36 new players, mostly from Group of Five programs or smaller schools, but he did add a handful of former blue-chippers from Power Four conference teams. Kinne’s explosive up-tempo offense has become pretty much plug-and-play reliable. The Bobcats generated 476.9 YPG, which resulted in 36.5 Points-Per-Game last season, ranking fifth and seventh in the nation. The defense was better last year — but they can still get pushed around at the line of scrimmage against opponents determined to impose their will. Second-year defensive coordinator lost 14 of the 18 players from last year that logged in at least 250 snaps. UTEP: The Miners might have been the unluckiest team in the FBS last season in the first year under head coach Scotty Walden. They went 3-9 with two net close losses in games decided by one scoring possession — and they ranked 105th in the FBS close game fortune. They ranked 101st in turnover luck. They also ranked 124th in lineup stability — due to injuries, they used 44 different players as a starter, with only three players on offense and three players on defense able to start all 12 of their games. Walden is committed to being patient in developing his young roster — so it is encouraging that they, after losing their first six games, split their final six games, including winning two of their last three games. Walden is doing a fantastic job in recruiting. Not only has he brought in the top two recruiting classes in program history, the 2024 class was ranked the second best in Conference USA, and this year’s class is considered the best in the conference. UTEP’s roster this season is faster, bigger, and stronger on both sides of the ball. Depth remains an issue for this program, which has enjoyed only two winning seasons since 2005. UTSA: After quarterback Frank Harris led the Roadrunners to 32 victories in the previous three seasons, this team struggled out of the gates by losing five of their first eight games. But they won four of their final five games, including a 44-15 victory against Coastal Carolina in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Head coach Jeff Traylor has led this team to a 16-3 record in November as he begins his sixth year with the program. Despite a 4-4 record in the American Athletic Conference, they outgained those opponents by +96 net Yards-Per-Game. The offense should be loaded with 11 starters back, led by junior quarterback Owen McCown who threw for 3424 yards with 25 touchdown passes. He will be protected by an experienced offensive line that brought back four starters from last year, another two starters from 2023 who missed last year because of injuries, and a former starter from Georgia State in the transfer portal. The wide receiver room is loaded with five targets returning who caught at least 28 balls last season. But the defense is inexperienced, with no starters back and only six players returning from the 19 who logged in at least 200 snaps. UTSA lost all three of their games decided by five points or less last season. If fifth-year defensive coordinator Jess Loep can get the defense playing reasonably well, then the Roadrunners should be in the mix to compete for an AAC title.WEST VIRGINIA: Last offseason, the Mountaineers’ previous head coach, Neal Brown, was given an extension after a 9-4 season that ended with a win in their bowl game. But after a 6-6 campaign in the regular season last year, the administration finally cut bait and let him go before their bowl game. West Virginia then lost to Memphis in the Frisco Bowl by a 42-37 score. The administration took a big swing last offseason by bringing back former head coach Rich Rodriguez. In seven seasons leading the team in the early oughts, he led the Mountaineers to a 57-18 record before taking the job at Michigan in 2007. That stint in Ann Arbor was a disaster. Rodriguez then served as the head coach at Arizona in another bumpy ride before resurrecting his career at Jacksonville State. In his two years as their head coach, the Gamecocks posted an 18-9 record. With only four starters back, Rodriguez is undertaking an almost complete reboot of this program. He brought in 52 players in the transfer portal — yet two dozen players left in the winter, and another two dozen then left after spring practice, so a lot of work was left to do in fall practice. Rodriguez remains a brilliant offensive mind 20 years after bringing West Virginia to prominence. But rebuilding this program will take time — especially on both sides of the line of scrimmage.Best of luck — Frank.
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