Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

NCAA Saturday Night Football: Alabama/Florida Preview

Friday, Dec 18, 2020

Alabama plays Florida for the SEC Championship on CBS at 8 PM ET. The neutral field site for this game is the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Alabama is the top-ranked team in the college football playoff rankings with a 10-0 record. They closed out their regular season schedule last Saturday with a 52-3 victory at Arkansas. The Crimson Tide is third in the nation by scoring 49.5 points-per-game, and their 537.7 yards-per-game average is fifth in the FBS. The 'Bama defense is holding their opponents to 16.8 points-per-game and 340.1 yards-per-game, ranking 11th and 27th in the country.Florida endured a tough-luck 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last week as a 24-point favorite. The Gators outgained the Tigers by a 609 to 418 margin. Yet the defending national champions scored on a 68-yard interception return for a touchdown and then later given a reprieve from a failed third-down conversion late in the game by a Florida personal foul stemming from one of their players throwing an LSU to celebrate the defensive stop. The ensuing 15-yard penalty kept the Tigers’ drive alive, which ended with a 57-yard field goal that decided the game.The Gators have an 8-2 record, with their second loss being by three points to Texas A&M. Florida’s signature victory was their 44-28 win against Georgia. They are 12th in the nation by scoring 41.2 points-per-game, and their 513.5 yards-per-game mark is eighth in the country. The Gators allow their opponents to score 26.3 points-per-game along with 384.7 yards-per-game. A subplot to this game is the battle between the Heisman Trophy contenders opposing at quarterback. Alabama’s Mac Jones is completing 76.4% of his passes for 3321 yards with 27 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. Kyle Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for Florida for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and just five interceptions.This game will have significant ramifications for the college football semifinals on January 1st. An Alabama victory ensures them a spot in the playoff and the likely top seed, which brackets them against the final fourth-seeded team. It remains possible that the playoff committee would still rank the Crimson Tide no lower than fourth even with a loss in this game, although with controversy. The Clemson-Notre Dame loser could be on the outside of the top-four, and the Tide has a 52-24 win over Texas A&M that currently ranks fifth. Florida ranks seventh, but their two losses likely mean finishing in the top-four even with an upset victory would be a bridge too far. Yet an Ohio State loss in the Big Ten championship game and an Aggies loss to Tennessee could make things interesting if the Gators win this game.The last time these two teams played was in the SEC championship game in 2016. The Crimson Tide won that game handily by a 54-16 score. Jim McElwain was the Gators coach that season. In his third season as the Florida head coach, Dan Mullen will be looking to stymie Nick Saban this time. Alabama is a 17-point favorite at BookMaker, with the total set at 74.5.

NCAA Basketball: Kansas/Texas Tech Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 17, 2020

The Thursday night game on ESPN is a heavyweight Big 12 battle between Kansas and Texas Tech, who are ranked 5th and 14th in this week’s Associated Press poll.Kansas lost their opening game of the season against number-one ranked Gonzaga by a 102-90 score. The Jayhawks have since rattled off six straight victories, including signature non-conference wins against Kentucky and Creighton. Kansas last played on Friday when they hammered Nebraska-Omaha by a 95-50 score as a 29.5-point favorite. Bill Self was on track to leading his team to a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament last March before the COVID shutdown. That team finished with a 28-3 record, but the Jayhawks lost their top two players from that group in Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. Kansas still has three starters back along with a few reserves that have been bolstered by another strong freshman class led by five-star prospect Bryce Thompson who takes over for Dotson at point guard. The defense was the hallmark of last year's team as they were ranked second in adjusted efficiency according to kenpom. The Jayhawks go into this game ranked sixth in the nation by kenpom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Redshirt freshman Jalen Wilson leads the team with a 15.3 points-per-game scoring average while adding 8.7 rebounds-per-game. Junior guard Ochai Agbaji is scoring 14.1 points-per-game average and making 45.9% of his shots from 3-point range.Texas Tech has won four games in a row with their 77-57 victory over Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Saturday. That win raised the Red Raiders’ record to a 6-1 mark, with their lone loss being a 64-53 setback against Houston. This group has quickly gelled into another typical Chris Beard team in his fifth year with the program as they lead the nation in kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.After losing in the national championship game two seasons ago, Beard’s team took a step back last year with an 18-13 record. The Red Raiders have more production returning this year than they did after their superb 2018-19 season, including two starters in Kyler Edwards and Terrance Shannon that appear ready for breakout seasons. Edwards leads the team with 25 assists while contributing 11.3 points-per-game. Shannon is scoring 11.8 points-per-game and pulling down 4.87 rebounds-per-game.Beard also brought in a top-ten recruiting class along with four transfers. Mac McClung from Georgetown leads the team with a 14.1 points-per-game scoring average. Marcus Santo-Silva, a graduate transfer forward from VCU, has added 8.1 points-per-game along with 7.6 rebounds-per-game. The Red Raiders' have not been tested this season outside their loss to the Cougars. Texas Tech's most competitive victory was a 51-44 triumph over Abilene Christian as a 15-point favorite. Kansas won six of the last eight meetings between these two teams, with their most recent encounter being on March 7th when the Jayhawks won by a 66-62 score as a 3-point favorite. BetAnySports lists Texas Tech as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 135. Tipoff is at 7 PM ET.

Ness Notes: Thursday, Dec 17

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Dec 17, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."College hoops: There were again no games between ranked opponents on Wednesday but there were four games between ranked and unranked ones. No. 7 Villanova beat Butler 85-66 to move to 6-1, No. 11 Texas (now 6-1) beat Sam Houston St, No. 20 Ohio St lost at Purdue, falling to 5-1. No. 21 Duke, which opened No. 9 in the preseason poll, got a much-need 75-65 win at Notre Dame, after losing at home to Michigan St and Illinois (Blue Devils are just 3-2). Ranked teams were 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on Wednesday against unranked opponents.We finally get a ranked vs ranked matchup on Thursday, as No. 5 Kansas (6-1) visits Lubbock to take on No. 14 Texas Tech (6-1). It's the Big 12 opener for both schools, the earliest Big 12 opener for either team since the conference formed 24 years ago. Kansas and Texas Tech are two of the league's FIVE ranked teams and, because of a COVID-19 cancellation, their matchup is the only opener pitting two such teams against each other. Kansas has claimed 15 of the last 16 Big 12's regular season titles but is a small underdog here, as Texas Tech is favored by (higher ranked teams are 9-5 SU but 6-8 ATS on the season). There is just one contest in which a ranked team is playing an unranked opponent. No. 9 Creighton (4-2, 0-1) blew a second-half lead Monday night to lose its Big East opener at home to Marquette 89-84, while St. John's (5-3, 0-2) suffered a 97-94 overtime setback Sunday at Georgetown. The Bluejays are favored by 7 points but note that St John's has opened 4-0 at home. Ranked teams are 91-13 (.875) SU but a more modest 58-44-2 (56.9%) ATS against unranked opponents Y-T-D.NFL Week 15 kicks off with a Thursday night game between the LA Chargers and the LV Raiders. The Chargers and Raiders are original members of the AFL, which began in 1960. The Raiders played in Oakland from 1960 through 1981, winning two Super Bowls. They moved to LA from 1982 through 1994 (won a third Super Bowl title), before returning to Oakland from 1995 through 2019. The Raiders are now based in Las Vegas. The Chargers spent their first season in LA but moved to San Diego the very next season, staying through 2016, when they moved back to LA and now share SoFi Stadium with the Rams. The Chargers do not own a Super Bowl title but the 1963 team which was 11-3 won the AFC championship game 51-10 over the Pats, was one of the best teams of the 1960s, AFL or NFL. CFL castoff Tobin Rote stepped in at QB and had one of the greatest WRs ever in Lance "Bambi" Alworth plus a RB duo that included Paul Lowe and Keith Lincoln (note: Lincoln rushed for 206 yards on 13 carries, led the team with 123 yards in receiving on seven catches and completed a pass for 20 yards). For those of you too young to have seen it, you really missed something. Suggested reading: The Lost Super Bowls 1961-65 (A Fictional Scrapbook). Spoiler alert: Sid Gillman's 1963 Chargers beat George Halas' 11-1-2 Chicago Bears in that 1963 'Super Bowl.' Fast-forwarding to 2020, the 4-9 Chargers have been eliminated from the playoffs, while the 7-6 Raiders are currently on the wrong side of the playoff 'bubble' (9th, with only seven getting in). The Chargers may just have found a franchise QB in rookie Justin Herbert (66.3% for 3,467 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs) and Raiders QB Derek Carr is "on pace" for the best season of his career (68.2% for 3,343 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 102.1). Las Vegas is favored by three points (over/under is 53 1/2).Week 15 also features two Saturday games, the 10-3 Bills at the 5-8 Broncos and the 4-9 Panthers at the 10-3 Packers. The Bills sit atop the AFC East (two-game lead over the 8-5 Dolphins), looking to win the division for the first time since 1995 (Buffalo is favored by six points and the over/under is 50). The 10-3 Packers currently own the NFC's No. 1 seed (own tiebreaker over the 10-3 Saints) and are favored by 8 1/2-points (over/under is 51 1/2). Moving on to some notable Sunday games, starting at the bottom (where else?) with the 0-13 Jets and 1-12 Jags, who have lost 12 straight since a Week 1 win over the Colts.The Jets have now lost a franchise-high 13 straight and are unlikely to win Sunday in LA against the Rams, who at 9-4 are in first-place in the NFC West only because they own the tiebreaker over the 9-4 Seahawks. The Rams are favored by 17 1/2-points and the over/under is 44. The Jags will be at the Ravens, who after going an NFL-best 14-2 in 2019, are currently 8-5, with the 8-5 Dolphins owning the tiebreaker which would give Miami the 7th and final playoff berth in the AFC. The Ravens are favored by 13 points and the over/under is 47 1/2. The defending champion KC Chiefs now own the league's best record at 12-1, after the Steelers have lost two straight, after an 11-0 start. The Chiefs are in New Orleans against the 10-3 Saints, who can pretty much be assured that the Packers will beat the Panthers, meaning a loss would put them ONE game back of Green Bay for the NFC's No. 1 seed with two games left PLUS the Packers owning the tiebreaker. The Chiefs own just one-game lead over the 11-2 Steelers for the AFC's No. 1 seed, with Pittsburgh playing the 2-10-1 Bengals in Cincinnati on Monday night. KC is favored by three points and the over/under is 51 1/2. Pittsburgh is favored by 13 points and the over/under is 40. SNF features the 9-4 Browns at the 5-8 NY Giants. The Browns are currently the AFC's No. 5 seed, as Cleveland looks to make the postseason for the first time since 2007. In a 'normal' year, the Giants' would be counting the days until the end of the regular season but thanks to playing in the NFC 'Least,' New York is just one game behind first-place Washington. The Browns are favored by five points (over/under is 43 1/2) but the Giants are hopeful that 6-7 Washington will lose earlier in the day to 9-4 Seattle, as Seattle is favored by five points (over/under is 44 1/2).Friday's Notes features CFB's Championship Game weekend.Good luck...Larry

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Basketball and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 17, 2020

The Thursday sports card features the last NFL Thursday night game for the 2020 season, along with the final matches in the English Premier League's midweek schedule and another afternoon and evening slate in college basketball. The college basketball tips off at 2 PM ET, with Southern Illinois hosting North Dakota as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 135 (all odds from BetOnline).Three games are on national television for the Thursday college basketball card. Kansas travels to Texas Tech for a 7 PM ET tip-off on ESPN in the opening Big 12 contest for both teams. The Jayhawks have rebounded from losing to Gonzaga by a 102-90 score in their opening game to win six straight games. They last played on Friday when they defeated Nebraska-Omaha by a 95-50 score as a 29.5-point favorite. Kansas ranks fifth in the nation in the Associated Press poll this week.Texas Tech is ranked 14th in the AP poll after winning four straight games to raise their record to a 6-1 mark. The Red Raiders come off a 77-57 victory against Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Saturday as a 27-point favorite. Their lone loss was a 64-53 setback to Houston. Texas Tech is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 133.Creighton visits St. John’s for a game at 7 PM ET on FS1. The Bluejays are ranked ninth in the AP poll despite losing two of their last three games. Creighton was upset at home in their game against Marquette on Monday by an 89-84 score as an 8-point favorite. They are 4-2 so far this season.St. John’s has lost two games in a row after their 97-94 setback at Georgetown on Sunday. The Red Storm return home with a 5-3 record on the season after playing their last two games on the road. Creighton is a 7-point road favorite with the total at 160.5.The nightcap on FS1 at 9 PM ET features Seton Hall playing at Marquette. The Pirates have won three games in a row with their 77-68 win over St. John’s on Friday as a 6-point favorite. Seton Hall brings their 4-3 record to Milwaukee to face a Golden Eagles’ team that has won three of their last four games.Marquette raised their record to a 5-2 mark on Monday with their 89-84 upset win at Creighton as an 8-point underdog. The Golden Eagles are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.Matchweek 13 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches on Thursday that will be on the NBC Sports Network. At 1 PM ET, Aston Villa hosts Burnley as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total at 2.5. At 3 PM ET, Manchester United visits Sheffield United as a -1.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.The last Thursday night game in the NFL season involves a clash between AFC West rivals with one team still fighting for the playoffs. Las Vegas has lost three of their last four games but remains alive in the AFC playoff hunt. With their 7-6 record, the Raiders are in ninth place in the AFC standings behind Miami and Baltimore with 8-5 records. Las Vegas comes off a 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The Raiders were held back by a -3 net turnover margin with quarterback Derek Carr throwing two interceptions while fumbling another three times. Carr completed 31 of 45 passes for 316 yards, but his turnovers continue to hurt his team. He has 11 fumbles on the season, along with seven interceptions. These mistakes threaten to overshadow his 68.2% completion percentage that has resulted in 3343 passing yards with 27 touchdown passes.Los Angeles is playing out the string with a 4-9 record, but they did win for the third time in ten contests decided by one scoring possession last week. The Chargers pulled out a 20-17 win at home over Atlanta as a 1-point favorite. Fourth-year head coach Anthony Lynn continues to face scrutiny with clock management and special teams.Las Vegas needs to win this game to maintain their playoff hopes while the Chargers are relegated to the spoiler role and perhaps salvaging Lynn’s job for next season. The Raiders are a 3-point favorite with the total set at 53.5. NBC has the broadcast with the kickoff shortly after 8:20 PM ET.

NFL Thursday Night Football: Chargers/Raiders Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 17, 2020

The last Thursday night game in the NFL season involves a clash between AFC West rivals with one team still fighting for the playoffs. Las Vegas has lost three of their last four games but remains alive in the AFC playoff hunt. With their 7-6 record, the Raiders are in ninth place in the AFC standings behind Miami and Baltimore with 8-5 records. Las Vegas needs to pass both teams to claim the final seventh spot in the playoff bracket. Yet the tie-breaker possibilities offer hope. The Raiders own a better conference record with the Ravens, and they have the opportunity to earn a head-to-head tie-breaker with their game against the Dolphins pending next week.Las Vegas comes off a 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The Raiders were held back by a -3 net turnover margin with quarterback Derek Carr throwing two interceptions while fumbling another three times. Carr completed 31 of 45 passes for 316 yards, but his turnovers continue to hurt his team. He has 11 fumbles on the season, along with seven interceptions. These mistakes threaten to overshadow his 68.2% completion percentage that has resulted in 3343 passing yards with 27 touchdown passes.The Las Vegas defense has also been an increasing concern for head coach Jon Gruden as they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week. That was the final straw for Gruden who fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther and replaced him with defensive line coach Rod Marinelli. On a short week, there is not much he can do to fix what plagues the Raiders’ defense. Marinelli was previously the head coach of the Detroit Lions team that finished 0-16 before he later served as the defensive coordinator in Dallas. Los Angeles is playing out the string with a 4-9 record, but they did win for the third time in ten contests decided by one scoring possession last week. The Chargers pulled out a 20-17 win at home over Atlanta as a 1-point favorite. Fourth-year head coach Anthony Lynn continues to face scrutiny with clock management and special teams. This week, the controversy involved an ill-advised run play called late in the first half on the Falcons' eight-yard line. Being out of time outs, the Chargers failed to score on the drive as time expired for halftimeRookie quarterback Justin Herbert has been a bright spot. He completed 36 of 44 passes against Atlanta for 243 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Herbert is completing 66.3% of his passes for 3467 yards with 25 touchdown passes and ten interceptions. The Raiders will be without four starters in this critical game due to injuries. Safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, and cornerback Damon Arnette are in the concussion protocol while defensive end Clelin Ferrell deals with a shoulder. Cornerback Nevin Lawson is questionable with an illness. The Chargers have right tackle Bryan Bulaga out with his concussion issues. Linebacker Denzel Perryman and safety Nasir Adderley are doubtful with injuries. Three key players on offense are questionable, with wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams dealing with a hamstring and back while running back Austin Ekeler dealing with a quad. All three players did take part in limited practice this week. Los Angeles also has eight players either out or on their Injured Reserve list, including defensive stalwarts Derwin James and Melvin Ingram, who have been out all season.Las Vegas needs to win this game to maintain their playoff hopes while the Chargers are relegated to the spoiler role and perhaps salvaging Lynn’s job for next season. BetAnySports lists the Raiders as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 53. NBC has the broadcast with the kickoff shortly after 8:20 PM ET.

Duke/Notre Dame Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2020

The Wednesday nightcap on ESPN features the ACC debut between the Duke Blue Devils and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.Duke has stumbled off to a 2-2 start this season. The Blue Devils have victories over Coppin State and Bellarmine while losing their high profile games to Michigan State and Illinois. Their last time Duke was on the court was against the Illini on December 8th, which ended in an 83-68 upset loss as a 3-point favorite. Both of those losses were at home at Cameron Indoor Arena, which has drawn attention for many observers that this will be a down year for head coach Mike Krzyzewski.Duke’s most significant problem has been on the offensive end of the court. The Blue Devils failed to reach 70 points in either game against the Spartans or Fighting Illini. They did not shoot better than 40% from the field against either of those opponents. Duke ranks 126th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 50.6%. The challenge for Krzyzewski is heightened with Jalen Johnson out for this game. He may be the most talented player on the team. The freshman has a foot injury that will keep him out a few weeks. Johnson was the top recruit from a freshman class considered Krzyzewski’s lowest-rated in the last five years. Yet for Coach K, that still means he has three remaining five-star freshman recruits available for tonight’s game. Perhaps what this Blue Devils team lacks in star power will be made up for in-depth and balance. Duke returns Wendell Moore and Michael Hurt amongst four players in the regular rotation from last year’s team that finished 25-6. Krzyzewski added a class of six freshmen that most programs would cherish. After the loss to Illinois, Coach K made headlines by declaring that his team would bypass the remainder of their non-conference schedule given COVID concerns. Alabama head coach Nate Oats criticized Krzyzewski for pulling out of games after losing twice at home. Yet those losses were against two teams ranked in the top-13 in the current AP poll. The Blue Devils currently ranks 17th in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency at kenpom based on their first four games.Notre Dame comes off upsetting another blue blood program in their last game on Saturday in their 64-63 upset victory against Kentucky at Rupp Arena. The Fighting Irish raced out to a 31-9 lead in the opening ten minutes of that game before holding on for the victory. Mike Brey’s team begins ACC play with an identical 2-2 record as the Blue Devils. Notre Dame’s other victory was against Detroit, while their two losses were against Michigan State and Ohio State. The Irish are led by point guard Prentiss Hubb. The 6'3 junior tops the ACC with a 21.3 points-per-game scoring average along with a 4.3 assists-per-game clip. He is joined by the 6’10 junior Nate Laszewski, who scored 21 points and added nine rebounds in the upset against the Wildcats. The stretch-four is pulling down 9.5 rebounds-per-game while making 57.1% of his shots from 3-point land. The Fighting Irish are an experienced group with four juniors and a senior in the starting lineup. Brey has assembled a roster that is the seventh-tallest in the nation. Yet they lost three of the most productive contributors from their 20-12 team last year with a .500 record in ACC play but likely needed to make a deep run in the ACC tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament. For fans of handicapping using transitive properties, Notre Dame lost on the road to Michigan State by an 80-70 score on November 28th before the Spartans defeated Duke at Cameron Indoor by a 75-69 score three days later. BookMaker lists the Blue Devils as a 2-point road favorite with the over/under set at 146. The ESPN broadcast starts at 9 PM ET.

2020 Heisman Predictions

by Doc's Sports

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2020

To say this season of college football has been a weird and wacky one would be a massive understatement. The COVID pandemic has wreaked havoc on the entire college football season, with teams playing anywhere from four to 12 games on the season. To understand that to the fullest, you must look no further than the AP Top-25 list as both Alabama and Notre Dame have 10 games under their belts and will be featured in their conference championship. Third-ranked Ohio State will have played just five games this season – pending a conference title game (still TBD) and still has a shot at making the College Football Playoff. I won’t be getting into that debate in this piece, but what I will be doing is praising the players for overcoming this weird, unprecedented season and providing us with entertainment for nearly four months. There are a handful of players that deserve a little more attention than others, and we start in Tuscaloosa with a pair of Alabama teammates that have been torturing opposing defenses all year long. Quarterback Mac Jones and his go-to receiver, DeVonta Smith, are one-two in the Heisman race, with Florida’s Kyle Trask right behind them. The FavoriteMac Jones, Quarterback, Alabama Crimson TideOdds: -275 It really shouldn’t come as a surprise that an Alabama player is currently the front-runner for the Heisman. Alabama has been nothing but a juggernaut over the last decade, churning out NFL player after NFL player en route to winning National Championship after National Championship. This year, Jones was given the keys to the Ferrari, and he has not disappointed. Jones has his Crimson Tide sitting pretty at 10-0, en-route to a conference title and a spot in the CFP. Jones has thrown for 3,321 yards this season to go with 27 touchdowns and just three interceptions, for what is the third-highest scoring program in the nation. Jones has been relatively hot over the last little while, tossing nine touchdowns over his last 3 games and 15 over his last five. Jones has plenty of offensive weapons to help his case, and we don’t see how he relinquishes the Heisman lead this late in the season. The Contender: DeVonta Smith, Wide Receiver, Alabama Crimson TideOdds: +250 As for Smith, it’s going to take something crazy for him to overtake his teammate, especially considering the Heisman is typically a quarterback award. Smith is going to need to go off for 200+ yards and a bunch of scores in his remaining games in order to have a sniff at the award. It’s possible if you look at Smith’s recent stat lines. He’s topped 200 yards twice over the last five games and topped more than 144 yards in four of the last five. He’s also notched a total of 15 touchdowns this season, with 11 of those coming in his last five contests. If the Heisman is really an MVP award, Smith should get serious consideration as he stepped up for his team in a big way after the team lost Jaylen Waddle early in the year. The DarkhorseKyle Trask, Quarterback, Florida GatorsOdds: +350 Another player that’s been the most valuable player to his team is Kyle Trask. Trask has shot to the spotlight this season after putting together a very impressive regular season. Trask leads the nation with 40 passing touchdowns – which is 10 more than second place – and has tossed just five interceptions all season long. He’s also thrown for just five interceptions and has the most passing yards in the country with 3,717. He tends to do his great work in bunches as he has thrown at least four touchdowns in all seven of his team’s 10 games this season. That’s an impressive resume. And if it weren’t for the Alabama duo above him, Trask would be an overwhelming favorite at this stage in the game. So, what’s been his undoing? Well, Trask simply couldn’t beat the teams he should have beaten. A loss to Texas A&M is excusable, but a loss to LSU is not. He did his part in both games. However, in a sport where the season is extremely short and wins are of the utmost importance, Trask’s slip down the Heisman board is justified based on results. Honorable Mention: Trevor Lawrence, Quarterback, ClemsonOdds: +1100 It’s hard to put into words what Trevor Lawrence has done during his time at Clemson. He has just one college loss to his name and has led the Tigers to two National Championship games, winning it as a true freshman and falling last year to LSU. In a normal year, Lawrence would have been atop this board, or close to the top. Instead, COVID struck and knocked Lawrence out for two games. If history is any indication, the only player to win the Heisman while missing games was Charlie Ward in 1993 (missed one) and Charles White in 1979 (missed two). It’s unfortunate that we’ll see the likely No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft end his college career on a wonky note thanks to a global pandemic. However, Lawrence’s value to the Clemson Tigers is unmatched, and we should appreciate all that he’s done for the ACC and college football in general.

Ness Notes: Wednesday, Dec 16

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2020

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 16, 2020

The Wednesday sports card features another six matches in the English Premier League's midweek schedule, along with an afternoon and evening slate in college basketball. The college basketball tips off at noon, with UMass visiting LaSalle as a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 141 (all odds from BetOnline).Six games are on national television for the Wednesday college basketball card. Villanova hosts Butler on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Wildcats won three games in a row after their 76-63 win at Georgetown last Friday as a 10.5-point favorite. The lone loss for head coach Jay Wright’s team in six games was an 81-73 loss at Virginia Tech. Villanova ranks 7th in this week’s Associated Press poll. Butler only played once this season on November 25th when they defeated Western Michigan by a 66-62 score as an 18.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs have since had four straight games either canceled or postponed after one of their players tested positive for COVID. Villanova is a 12.5-point favorite in this Big East battle with an over/under of 130.5.Cincinnati plays at home against South Florida on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Bearcats have lost two of their last three games after their 65-56 loss at Tennessee on Saturday. The Bulls have raised their record to a 4-2 mark with three straight victories. South Florida last played on Saturday when they squeaked by Wofford on a neutral court by a 58-56 score as a 1.5-point favorite. Cincinnati looks to improve their record to 3-2 as an 8-point favorite in this American Athletic Conference contest with the total at 132.TCU visits Oklahoma State on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Horned Frog snapped a two-game losing streak on Saturday with a 73-55 win in Atlanta against Texas A&M as a 1-point favorite. The victory improved head coach Jamie Dixon’s team to a 5-2 mark. The Cowboys have opened their season with six straight victories after their 67-64 win at Wichita State on Saturday as a 3-point favorite. Oklahoma State is a 5-point favorite in this Big 12 showdown with an over/under of 133.5.Mississippi travels to Middle Tennessee on the CBS Sports Network for an 8 PM ET tipoff. The Rebels have won their first three games of the season after their 68-54 victory against Central Arkansas on Monday as a 23-point favorite. Middle Tennessee has won two of their last three games with their 73-57 victory over Covenant on Saturday in a non-boarded contest. The win raised the Blue Raiders' record to a 2-3 mark. Ole Miss is a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 135.Duke visits Notre Dame in an ACC clash on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Blue Devils lost their second game in their last three games after their 83-68 loss to Illinois last Thursday as a 3-point favorite. Duke is just 2-2 on the season, with their other setback being a 75-69 loss at home to Michigan State. They will be without their star freshman, Jalen Johnson, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. Notre Dame has won two of their last three games after they upset Kentucky in Rupp Arena on Saturday by a 64-63 score as a 7.5-point underdog. The Blue Devils are 4-point road favorites with an over/under of 145.5.Tulane hosts Memphis in an American Athletic Conference clash on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Green Wave have won their first four games of the season after they defeated Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Saturday by a 67-56 score as an 18.5-point favorite. The Tigers had their three-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 74-71 upset loss to Auburn in Atlanta as a 7.5-point favorite. Memphis is a 10-point favorite with the total at 135.5.Matchweek 13 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Three matches take place at 1 PM ET. Arsenal hosts Southampton on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Leeds United plays at home against Newcastle United as a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Leicester City hosts Everton as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the over/under at 2.75.The final three matches start at 3 PM ET. The NBC Sports Network has the premier contest of the week, with Liverpool hosting Tottenham at Anfield in a showdown of the top two teams in the English Premier League table. Liverpool is a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Brighton plays at Fulham in a pick ‘em matchup with the over/under at 2.25. West Ham United plays at home against Crystal Palace as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the total at 2.25.

Ness Notes: Tuesday, Dec 15

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."NFL Week 14 recap: I think we all have a tendency to bemoan our "bad beats," while taking for granted our "lucky wins." That being said, I don't remember an NFL season (this is my 37th as a professional handicapper) with more 'fantastic finishes' and while I've had my share of 'bad beats' in 2020, I sure got a 'lucky' win last night with the Ravens. The Ravens and Browns will forever remain a great rivalry, as Art Modell moved the Browns out of Cleveland prior to the 1996 season to become the Baltimore Ravens, while the Cleveland franchise, after a three-year hiatus, returned in 1999 retaining the Browns name and history. Last night's game was a classic, with the Ravens prevailing 47-42. Baltimore entered the fourth quarter leading 34-20 but two lead changes and then a tie at 42-all with just 1:04 left, set up a bizzaro ending. I'll leave it at that, as you either watched it live or in replays via your cable outlet or device of choice. When all the 'dust' from Week 14 had settled, home teams were just 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS (San Francisco again played a 'home game in Glendale, making it a neutral-site contest), while home dogs checked in at 3-6 and 4-5 ATS. The 16 contests averaged 48.0 PPG but just FIVE games went over the total, meaning 11 stayed under. Doing the math, home teams are 102-103-2 (.498) SU and 98-106-2 (48.0%) ATS. NFL totals have seen 98 overs, 105 unders and five pushes.We can always seem to count on the Jets for consistency and their 40-3 loss at Seattle gives them a franchise-record 13 straight losses (4-9 ATS). However, the Jets had better not slip up and win a game, because the Jags are 'right on their tail,' losing for the 12th straight time (Jags beat the Colts 27-20 in Week 1) in a 31-10 home loss to the Titans (Jags are 6-7 ATS). Speaking of ATS records, the Cowboys are an NFL-worst 3-10, while the Dolphins are an NFL-best at 10-3. Note that no other team is better than 8-5 ATS.Once upon a time the Steelers were 11-0 but a second straight loss (26-15 at Buffalo on SNF) has allowed the defending champion Chiefs to take over the NFL's best record (and No. 1 seed in the AFC) at 12-1. The Chiefs ended the 2019 regular season on a six-game winning streak and then won three postseason games on their way to winning the Super Bowl. Throw in 2020's 12-1 record and KC is a pretty 'sweet' 21-1 SU over its last 22 games. However, after going 8-0-1 ATS in 2019's finishing run of NINE straight wins, the 2020 Chiefs are just 6-7 ATS in going 12-1, the same point spread mark as the 1-12 Jags (see above). Need a more stark reminder that the NFL point spread is "the great equalizer?"The Saints entered Sunday with the NFL's longest-active winning streak (NINE in a row) but lost 24-21 at Philadelphia, as Jalen Hurts made his first NFL start. Hurts was 17 of 30 for 167 yards (one TD and zero INTs), while rushing for 106 yards on 5.9 YPC. Can you say Lamar Jackson? Is the "Wentz era" over in Philly? Coupled with Green Bay's less than impressive 31-24 win at Detroit, the Saints loss dropped them to 10-3 and tied with the Packers for the NFC's best record. However, with the Packers having won in New Orleans in Week 3 (37-30), Green Bay currently owns the NFC's No. 1 seed.NFL Week 15 kicks off on Thursday (Chargers at Raiders) plus also has two Saturday games, with the Bills at the Broncos and the Panthers at the Packers. I'll move my NFL preview to Thursday and my CFB preview to Friday. CFB updates from Monday: Oregon will replace Washington as the Pac-12 North representative in the conference championship football game on Friday. It was determined the Huskies would be unable to field the 53 scholarship players needed to play because of positive cases for COVID-19 and the related contact-tracing protocols. The Huskies were also below the required number for a specific position group. 3-2 Oregon will square off against 5-0 USC which moved up to No. 13 in the latest AP poll at the LA Memorial Coliseum (USC's home field). Another major development came with the NCAA Football Oversight Committee announcing Monday that Football Bowl Subdivision teams will be able to replace canceled bowl games after Dec 19 .These matchups must replace a previously scheduled bowl game and will have to feature teams from the originally contracted conferences AND these contests will have to be played prior to the conclusion of the calendar year. I'll comment on these developments plus the new CFP standings (which come out tonight) in Wednesday's Notes.The new college basketball AP poll came out Monday afternoon and the top-5 remained the same. No. 1 Gonzaga (54 first-place votes) and No. 2 Baylor (7) have been 1-2 in each of the four polls this season. The Bulldogs are 3-0 and haven't played since Dec 2, having had FIVE games postponed or canceled due to COVID-19 protocols. Gonzaga is scheduled to face No. 3 Iowa in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, this coming Saturday. Iowa is 6-0 and the owners of one first-place vote. The Bears announced last Saturday that they would pause team activities as well and are also scheduled to visit Kansas State this coming Saturday. 6-0 Michigan St is No. 4 and 6-1 Kansas is No. 5 (lone loss is to No. 1 Gonzaga).No. 6 Illinois fell to 13th after losing at Missouri with that Tigers win catapulting them into the top-25 at No. 16. Missouri was last ranked back in the 203-14 season. Joining the Tigers as 'newbies' to this week's top-25 are 5-0 Clemson at No. 24 and 6-0 Michigan at No. 25. The Wolverines were No. 25 preseason poll but dropped out in the first regular season poll (Nov 30) but I guess a 6-0 start gets them "back to where they started." Duke is just 2-2 and is down at No. 21 (was No. 10) and 4-2 North Carolina is ranked 22nd, down from No. 16 There were no Monday games between ranked opponents (higher ranked teams are 9-5 SU but 6-8 ATS) but No. 9 Creighton hosted Marquette and No. 19 Rutgers opened Big Ten play with a game at Maryland. The Bluejays lost 89-84 at home, while the Scarlet Knights won 74-60. Both winning teams had HUGE second halves as Marquette outscored Creighton 54-40 and Seton Hall outscored Maryland 47-32. There are again no games between ranked opponents on Tuesday, although there are FIVE games featuring a ranked team vs an unranked opponent. No. 10 Tennessee (2-0) is home to 4-1 Appalachian St and is favored by 18 1/2 points. No. 12 Wisconsin (4-1) is home to 3-0 Loyola-Chicago and is favored by 8 1/2-points. No. 13 Illinois (4-2) is coming off a rollercoaster 11-day span (Dec 2-12) in which the Fighting Illini lost to No. 2 Baylor, won at then-No. 10 Duke and then lost their Braggin' Rights game at Missouri. Illinois welcomes 6-0 Minnesota to State Farm Center tonight as an eight-point favorite. No. 15 Florida St (3-0) hosts 2-2 Ga Tech and is favored by eight points plus No. 24 Clemson (5-0) has a real challenge playing at 4-1 Va Tech, where the Hokies are a one-point choice. Ranked teams enter Tuesday 84-11 (.884) SU but a much more modest 52-41-2 (55.9%) ATS vs unranked opponents.Good luck...Larry

NFL MVP Odds

by Doc's Sports

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

There are just three games left in the 2020-21 NFL regular season, and to say the MVP race has sorted itself out would be uncalled for. This year’s MVP race is a two-horse race with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers battling it out for the prestigious award. Should Mahomes win, it would be his second MVP in three seasons, while Rodgers would be winning the award for the third time in his career and first since 2014. Both quarterbacks have their teams primed for a deep playoff run and have gotten to this point in the season in a different fashion. Rodgers has been lights out all season long, while Mahomes, only recently (six games or so), has ascended to the top of the MVP odds boards. With three games left, Mahomes is the favorite, but I wouldn’t rule out Rodgers overtaking him if a few things break the right way. Beyond them, you’ll notice that six of the top seven favorites are quarterbacks, with Derrick Henry being the only other offensive player listed (+10000). Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt (+12500) and Los Angeles’, Aaron Donald (+15000) are the only defensive players to crack the top 12 at this late point in the season. The FavoritePatrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City ChiefsOdds: -275 It’s really not all that hard to believe that Mahomes has ascended to the top of the MVP race and is the odds-on favorite to capture his second MVP award in three years. Mahomes has the Chiefs in first place in the AFC and they look poised to make a deep playoff run and defend their Lombardy Trophy. Mahomes ranks first in passing yards by some 500 yards over second place (Deshaun Watson) and by 600 yards over the third-place guy (Aaron Rodgers – who we will talk about later on). Mahomes currently sits third in touchdown passes with 33 and second in QBR at 84.7. To say he’s been on fire lately would be a massive understatement. Over his last six games, Mahomes has tossed 17 touchdown passes. His team has gone 6-0 in that span, and it’s going to take a massive collapse by the Chiefs over the final three games against the Saints, Falcons and Chargers, for Mahomes to fall out of the MVP lead. However, if the guy below can put up even more gaudy numbers than he’s already done, it could be a closer final vote than we might think. The Contender: Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay PackersOdds: +200 I said it back in April after the draft, I said it again when I did my division previews and I’ll say it again for those of you who didn’t hear. Aaron Rodgers took the Packers’ decision to draft quarterback, Jordan Love as a sign of disrespect. I understand that the NFL is a business and it’s important to have an heir apparent at the quarterback position and that Love could learn plenty from a guy as gifted as Rodgers. However, Rodgers wanted reinforcements on the offensive side of the ball and never got it. I said that to begin the year, and Rodgers’s season has played out exactly how I thought it would. Through 13 games Rodgers has thrown just four interceptions this season and has 3,685 passing yards under his belt. He ranks first in touchdown passes with 39 and leads the NFL in QBR at 84.8. He’s essentially on an “EFF YOU” tour and has obliterated every defense he’s come up against to date; the Packers are averaging 273 passing yards per game and 31.5 points per game. The Packers are also in prime position to capture their division title and possibly finish with the best record in the NFC. The only possible knock on Rodgers’ MVP train is the fact that he comes up against some good defenses over the final three games in the Panthers, Titans and Bears. The Darkhorse Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills Odds: +2500 As far as Josh Allen goes, it may be too little too late for the product out of Wyoming. Allen had a blistering start to the year before fading in the middle quarter of the season, only to come on strong over his last five games. During that span, Allen has posted 12 touchdown passes and added three rushing touchdowns while leading his team to a 4-1 record. Allen has the Bills in prime position to capture their first division title since 1995 when the team won the wild-card round but lost in the division game to the Steelers. When you look at the individual statistics that Allen has put up, he doesn’t exactly jump off the page at you. Allen ranks sixth in passing yards (3,641), T-6 in passing touchdowns with 28, and sixth in QBR at 75.9. He’s also tossed nine interceptions which has him T19. Nonetheless, if you take Allen off the Bills, you have a Bills squad that is well below .500 regardless of who replaces Allen (Barkley, Webb, Fromm). You could argue that with the lack of explosive weapons the Bills have in comparison to the Packers and Chiefs, Allen is the MVP of the league. Unfortunately, I think it’s too little too late for the Bills pivot, but I’m sure he’d much rather take a deep playoff run than garner individual accolades.

Potential Nightmare Playoff Match Ups for NFL Top Seeds

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

Currently the top four seeds in the NFL playoff picture are pretty distinguished with the Chiefs and Steelers in the AFC mirrored by the Packers and Saints in the NFC. With four games left in the NFL regular season there is still plenty of time for seeds to move and teams to sneak into playoff contention. Only one first round bye is available this year and depending on who can secure it means that any of the top 4 teams could get pushed into a nightmare matchup in the Wild Card round. Current Playoff Seeding: AFC 1. Chiefs, 12-1 (1st Round Bye) 2. Steelers, 11-2 3. Bills, 10-34. Titans, 9-4 5. Browns, 9-4 6. Colts, 9-47. Dolphins, 8-5 NFC 1. Packers, 10-3 (1st Round Bye)2. Saints, 10-33. Rams, 9-4 4. Redskins, 6-75. Seahawks, 9-46. Buccaneers, 8-57. Cardinals, 7-6 Chiefs (SB Odds +180): The Chiefs are widely considered the best team in the NFL and seem to be utterly unstoppable on offense. They have a very intriguing match up with the Saints this weekend. Losing that game could prove costly with a number factors still in play in regards to a tie breaker for the top seed. Nightmare Matchup: Titans If the Colts win the AFC South, we could see Chiefs vs Titans in the first round if KC loses the #1 seed. Tennessee causes problems because their ability to put points on the board while chewing the clock at the same time. They have quietly surged into a top 3 scoring offense this season, only one place behind Kansas City. Steelers (SB Odds +1200): With their loss @ Buffalo on Sunday, the Steelers drop to the #2 seed in the AFC for the time being. Their remaining schedule is tough with the Colts and Browns still on the docket. After losing to the Washington Football team and Buffalo in back to back weeks, they have currently lost their first round bye. Nightmare matchup: DolphinsPittsburg’s inability to run the football is a major issue. The Dolphins have an outstanding secondary with Byron Jones and Xavien Howard to handle Big Ben and the Steelers one dimensional offense. Packers (SB Odds +700): The Packers have jumped the Saints to the #1 seed in the NFC. If they finish with the same record as the Saints, the Packers will win the tiebreaker because of their head to head matchup. That win in week 3 is arguably Green Bay’s only impressive victory on the year. They finish out favored in all their games and only the Titans in week 16 might give them trouble. Nightmare Matchup: RamsIt seems unlikely they meet based on the standings right now, but if it does happen the Packers are in trouble. An elite pass rush with Jalen Ramsey shadowing Davante Adams could spell trouble in Lambeau and lead to an early exit for the Packers. Saints (SB Odds +775): New Orleans has turned up the heat in the second half of the year and made life for opposing quarterbacks dreadful. They host the Chiefs on Sunday and a loss their probably takes them completely out of the #1 seed conversation. Losing to the Eagles last Sunday is probably going to come back to haunt this team. Nightmare Matchup: Vikings – if they get inNo matter how good of a season the Saints have, the Vikings always seem to be their kryptonite come playoff time. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook will not be a welcome sight to Sean Payton as he tries not to remember past heartbreak. If they Vikings get in and match up with New Orleans, watch out Saints **Super Bowl odds are from BetOnline**

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