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Ness Notes: G.O.A.T. vs G.O.A.T in Waiting

by Larry Ness

Friday, Feb 05, 2021

I was born in 1953 and while my boyhood hero was Johnny Unitas, the QB who set the standard for "winning championships" during my personal "Wonder Years,' was Green Bay's Bart Starr. Starr led the Packers to NFL titles in 1961 and 1962, then suffered a two-year 'drought,' when the Bears won in 1963 (George Halas' last championship team) and the Jim Brown-led Cleveland Browns won in 1964 (Browns haven't won an NFL championship since!).  Starr and the Packers were back to winning another title in 1965 and followed with NFL titles in 1966 and 1967. Green Bay's 1966 and 1967 seasons were capped off by the Packers winning the first two Super Bowls, giving Starr FIVE titles in a seven-year span. Was he a better QB than Johnny U? I doubt many (if any) would say that but those five rings in seven years speak VOLUMES!Tom Brady gets set to participate in his 10th Super Bowl, having won SIX of his previous nine tries. In the Super Bowl era, Bradshaw and Montana have each won four Super Bowls but when Brady earned his SIXTH Super Bowl title, it was Starr's record of five NFL titles that he broke. Let's start with Brady's regular season numbers. He's got 230 wins as an NFL starter, 44 more than the 186 wins owned by Farve and Peyton Manning, who are tied for second-best. 17 QBs have won at least 100 regular season starts and only THREE own winning percentages of better than .700.  Peyton (186 wins) owns a .702 winning percentage and Montana (117 wins) has a winning percentage of .713. As for Brady, his winning percentage is a mere .769! Moving to the postseason, Brady's 33 playoff wins are more than double his nearest competitor, as Montana owns 16 postseason victories. Only NINE other QBs have as many as 10 postseason wins. Bradshaw (4 Super Bowl wins), Elway (2) and Peyton (2) have 14 playoff victories. Big Ben (2) and Favre (1) have 13 wins, postseason wins while Aikman (3), Wilson (1) and Staubach (2) have 11. Who am I leaving out? The legendary Joe Flacco with 10 postseason wins, four coming in Baltimore's run to a Super Bowl 47 win. Returning to winning percentages, Brady's 33-11 (.750) is again tops, followed by Terry Bradshaw (14-5, .737) and Troy Aikman (11-4, .733) . Montana falls just short of "The 700-Club" at 16-7, .696.You want to argue that Jim Brown or Jerry Rice deserve to be ranked No. 1 all-time among NFL players, you can make that case (go for it!). However, love him or hate him, I don't see how anyone can seriously argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. when one is discussing QBs in NFL history. So what's all this talk about a "G.O.A.T. in Waiting?" Quoting Rod Serling (of Twilight Zone fame for those too young or without cable TV), "Let me submit for your approval" the name Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes played just one game as an NFL rookie (in a meaningless Week 17 contest) but 'exploded' on the NFL scene in 2018 with 5,097 passing yards, 50 TD passes and just 12 INTs (QB rating of 113.8). He was named the NFL's 2018 MVP and led KC to an AFC championship showdown with New England, which the Chiefs lost in OT (at KC) to the Brady-led Patriots. Mahomes threw for 4,031 with 26 TDs and 15 INTs (105.3 QB rating) last season and more importantly, to a 31-20 Super Bowl win over the 49ers. Mahomes threw for 4,740 yards in the 2020 season with 38 TDs and six INTs (108.2 QB rating) and has the Chiefs back in the Super Bowl again. Before going any further, let's look at the start of Mahomes' regular season career.He made one start in his rookie season (a win) and has made 45 starts the last three seasons. His record is 38-8 (.826) with 114 TD passes and 24 INTs (108.7 rating). How does that compare with Brady's first-three seasons as a starter (2001-03). Brady didn't make a start in his rookie season of 2000 (attempted THREE passes) but took over early in the 2001 season after Bledsoe got hurt. Brady never gave up the starters job. Brady would go 34-12 (.739) as a starter with a much more modest TD-to-INT ratio of 69-38 (see above for Mahomes' TD/INT ratio). Brady's highest QB rating in his first three seasons was 86.5, compared with Mahomes 108.7 three-year average. Brady did lead the Pats to Super Bowls wins in 2001 and 2003 (missed the postseason with a 9-7 record in 2002), building his incomparable postseason record (see above) by starting 6-0. For the record, Brady won a THIRD Super Bowl title in his fourth season (2004) and won his first 10 postseason starts, before losing 27-13 at Denver in the 2005 playoffs' Divisional Round. I guess one could look at Brady's Super Bowl record and say after a 3-0 start, he's just 3-3 in his last six Super Bowl appearances but c'mon!!Getting back to Mahomes. He wins the comparison between the two QBs over their respective first three regular seasons but he will need to beat Brady and the Bucs on Sunday to match Brady's two Super Bowl titles in his first three seasons. As noted, Brady missed the playoffs in his second full season but then won it all again in his fourth. So, in Brady's 9-0 run to his first three postseasons, he averaged 216.8 YPG passing with 11 TDs and just three INTs. Mahomes has one more game left to complete his first three postseasons and will enter Sunday's game 6-1 as a playoff starter (lone loss to Brady's Pats in 2018) but again, has much gaudier stats than Brady had in a comparable span. Mahomes has averaged 293.4 YPG passing in his seven postseason starts, throwing 17 TD passes with just two INTs in 252 attempts. His QB rating is 109.8! I mentioned earlier that just three QBs have  postseason winning percentages of better than .700. Brady's tops at .750 and his QB rating is 89.9, Aikman is second at .733 and his QB rating is 88.3 and Bradshaw is third at .737 and his QB rating is 83.0. In his modest seven-game playoff career so far, Mahomes' winning percentage is .857 pending Sunday's and again, his QB rating is 109.8, FAR above the competition.Mahomes could sure use a win over Brady on Sunday, as a SEVENTH Super Bowl win for Brady seems an unreachable target. What's more, it would make Brady 2-0 in playoff showdown with Mahomes and who knows what Brady's plan for the future is? Is this last meeting between the two? Mahomes has had a spectacular start to his career and seems to be with the perfect team and perfect coach. That said, let me remind all Andy Reid fans that before Mahomes lined up as his starting QB, Reid's postseason record stood at 11-13 and just one Super Bowl appearance (a loss to Brady and the Pats in the 2004 season), including a 1-4 record with the Chiefs. However, Reid's become a much SMARTER coach with Mahomes at QB (6-1).  Mahomes talent is undeniable and he's a worthy choice to fill the role of "G.O.A.T. in Waiting" but staying healthy and 'good fortune' will likely define his career. In case you don't remember, Brady's first three Super Bowl wins came by exactly THREE points. His fourth win came in a four-point win over Seattle when Pete Carroll made one of the stupidest play calls in Super Bowl history. His fifth win came in the greatest collapse in Super Bowl history, as the Falcons led 28-3 in the third quarter, only to lose 34-28 in OT. Win No. 6 came in a 'snooze-fest' over the Rams 13-3, a game that was tied 3-3 entering the fourth quarter.One last thing (I rarely leave well enough alone)...Otto Graham entered Northwestern in 1940 on a basketball scholarship but football soon became his main sport. After a brief stint in the military at the end of World War II, Graham played for the Rochester Royals of the National Basketball League (the precursor to today's NBA) in the 1945-46 season. The Royals won the championship that season. However, Paul Brown (the founder of the Cleveland Browns and its head coach) signed Graham to play QB for the Browns in the All-America Football Conference (AAFC) for the start of the 1946 season. The league featured two, four-team divisions (East and West). The Browns would win the West at 12-2 that season and then beat the East champs (NY Yankees, yes that's right) 14-9 to capture the first AAFC championship over. Graham's 1946 NBL and AAFC titles made him the first person to have won championships in two of the four major North American sports (neither Brady nor Mahomes can match that!).The AAFC would exist for four years (1946-49) and Graham led Cleveland to a championship in all FOUR seasons of that league's existence. The Browns joined the NFL in 1950 and went on to win the NFL championship that year when they beat the LA Rams 30-28. Graham and the Browns were "just getting started," as the newcomers from the "upstart league" would play in SIX straight NFL championship games (1950-55). The Browns lost 24-17 to the Rams in 1951, to the Lions 17-7 in 1952 and 17-16 to the Lions (again) in 1953. However, the 'third time was the charm' for Graham and the Browns in 1954, beating the Lions 56-10. Graham was talked out of retirement in 1955 for ONE last season and he capped his career with a 38-14 championship game win over the Rams in 1955.Doing the math, Graham led the Browns to 10 straight championship games (four in the AAFC and six in the NFL), winning SEVEN! A check of the NFL record book reveals that Graham's statistical accomplishments have long been surpassed in the modern era but he still holds the NFL record for career average yards gained per pass attempt (8.63) plus owns the highest career regular season winning percentage of any NFL starting QB at .810 (57-13-1). His record in AAFC and NFL postseason games is 9-3 (.750), which matches Brady's postseason winning percentage mark (see above) heading into Super Bowl 55.10 seasons, 10 championship games and SEVEN championship game wins. Is he the G.O.A.T.? Has anyone ever known long-time New York Yankees owner George Steinbrenner to be wrong about anything? He once called Graham "as great of a quarterback as there ever was." My opinion? I will say this much. Graham sure earned his nickname of "Automatic Otto!"Enjoy Super Bowl 55...Good luck, Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NBA, and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 05, 2021

The Friday sports card features college basketball with additional action in the NBA and the NHL.The college basketball card tips off at 2 PM ET with North Dakota visiting Denver as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 144  (all odds from BetOnline). The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 7 PM ET. Dayton hosts George Mason on ESPN2. The Flyers fell to 10-5 in a 69-64 loss at Duquesne as a 1-point underdog on Tuesday. The Patriots come off an 84-67 loss at Saint Bonaventure as a 10.5-point underdog on Saturday. Dayton is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 131.Penn State plays at home against Maryland on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Nittany Lions, 6-8, have lost two of three after their 72-56 loss at Wisconsin as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Terrapins, 10-8, have won four of six with their 61-60 win against Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Penn State is a 3-point favorite with a total of 143. Kent State plays at home against Akron on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Golden Flashes are 10-4 with wins in seven of their last eight games after their 77-68 victory at Miami (OH) as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Zips, 10-4, had a six-game winning streak snapped with a 91-76 loss at Toledo as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. Kent State is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.Boise State visits Nevada on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Broncos, 13-2, avenged a loss against Colorado State with an 85-77 victory on the road as a 3-point favorite last Friday. The Wolf Pack improved to 11-7 with their 72-62 win against UNLV on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Boise State is a 4-point road favorite with the total at 145.5.Monmouth plays at Manhattan on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Hawks, 8-5, had their five-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with an 83-74 upset loss at Niagara as a 3.5-point favorite. The Jaspers fell to 5-6 with a 68-54 loss at Saint Peter’s as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Monmouth is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 139.5.Nine games are on the NBA schedule headlined by a doubleheader on ESPN. Brooklyn hosts Toronto in a rematch of their Eastern Conference playoff series at 7:35 PM ET. The Nets have won five of their last six games with their 124-120 upset victory against the LA Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Tuesday. The Raptors have won two in a row after their 123-108 win at Orlando as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. The nightcap on ESPN has the Los Angeles Clippers hosting Boston at 10:05 PM ET. The Clippers have won four of five with their 121-99 win at Cleveland as a 9-point favorite on February 3rd. The Celtics have lost three of four after getting upset at Sacramento on Wednesday as a 1-point favorite. Los Angeles is a 5-point favorite with the total at 221. The NHL has five games on the schedule. Three of the games have the puck drop at 7 PM ET, with the final two games starting at 10 PM ET. None of the games are on national television.

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NCAA Thursday Night Basketball: Ohio State/Iowa Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 04, 2021

A college basketball showdown between two Big Ten teams ranked in the top-eight teams in the country takes place on ESPN at 7 PM ET.Ohio State has won three straight after defeating Michigan State, 79-62, as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. E.J. Liddell led the team with 20 points. The sophomore has scored at least 20 points in four of his last five games. He leads a team that can go eleven deep on their bench with a 15.3 points-per-game scoring average. Head coach Chris Holtmann returned five of the nine players that played at least 10 minutes per game last year for the group that finished 21-10 with nine wins in their final twelve Big Ten games. Holtmann then added three impact transfers in the offseason. Abel Porter was the starting point guard at Utah State. Justice Sueing scored 14.6 points-per-game as a sophomore at California. Seth Towns is a former Ivy League Player of the Year at Harvard.The Buckeyes opened the Big Ten season by losing two of their first three games. Yet Holtmann has seen his team win six of their last seven games to rise to fourth place in the highly-competitive conference with an 8-4 record. Ohio State has lost to Minnesota, Northwestern, and twice to Purdue. The Buckeyes have defeated Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers twice. They also have a resume-building victory against UCLA in non-conference play. With a 14-4 overall record, Ohio State ranks seventh in the current Associated Press poll. The Buckeyes are fourth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the numbers at kenpom. They are 19th in free throw rate. Ohio State is just 66th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Holtmann’s team is second in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to 29.7% shooting from 3-point land. Iowa improved their record to 13-4 on Tuesday in an 84-78 victory against Michigan State as a 9.5-point favorite. Luka Garza led the way with 27 points and 12 rebounds. The senior All-American is scoring 26.5 points-per-game while adding 8.8 rebounds-per-game. Head coach Fran McCaffery returned all five starters while getting three additional players back from injury from the team that finished 20-11. These Hawkeyes are ranked 8th in the nation by the AP with a 13-4 record. Iowa has high-profile wins against Purdue, Rutgers, and North Carolina. Their four losses are against Gonzaga, Minnesota, Indiana, and Illinois. They are in third place in the Big Ten with a 7-3 record.The Hawkeyes are the number one team in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They make 38.2% of their 3-point shots, 29th, while posting an effective field goal percentage of 55.9%, 17th in the country. But Iowa is only 117th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They allow their opponents to make 35.5% of their 3-point shots, 248th.Iowa hosts this game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where they are 10-1 while scoring 90.8 points-per-game. Ohio State is 5-3 on the road.BookMaker lists Iowa as a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 156.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAA Basketball and EPL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 04, 2021

The Thursday sports card features college basketball with additional action in the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off at 2 PM ET with SIU-Edwardsville hosting Tennessee State as a 1-point favorite with the total set at 133 (all odds from BetOnline). The nationally-televised college basketball schedule begins at 7 PM ET. ESPN features a battle of two Big Ten teams ranked in the top-eight in the nation, with Iowa hosting Ohio State. The Hawkeyes are 8th in the Associated Press poll with a 13-4 record. They come off an 84-78 victory against Michigan State as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The AP has the Buckeyes 7th with their 14-4 mark. Ohio State is on a three-game winning streak after defeating Michigan State, 79-62, as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. Iowa is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155.Cincinnati visits Temple on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Bearcats, 3-7, take the court for the first time since January 10th, when they defeated Wichita State, 82-76, as a 0.5-point favorite. The Owls fell to 4-5 with their second loss in three games with their 81-64 upset loss to Tulane as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Cincinnati is a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 139.5.Arizona plays at Utah on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Wildcats, 13-4, have won four of five with their 71-50 win against California as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Utes improved to 7-7 on Saturday with their 77-74 upset win at Colorado as an 8-point underdog. Arizona is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Gardner Webb plays at home against Presbyterian on ESPNU at 7 PM ET.  The Runnin’ Bulldogs, 6-11, have lost their last two games after being upset by High Point, 72-69, as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. The Blue Hose, 5-9, come off a 66-53 upset win against Longwood as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Gardner Webb is a 10-point favorite with the total at 132. Stanford plays at California on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Cardinal, 10-7, last played on Tuesday when they lost to USC, 72-66, as a 3-point underdog. The Golden Bears, 7-12, have lost four in a row with their 70-51 loss at Arizona as a 9.5-point underdog on Saturday. Stanford is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5.Rutgers plays at home against Minnesota on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Scarlet Knights, 10-6, have won their last three games after a 64-56 victory at Northwestern as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Golden Gophers, 11-6, have lost four of five after their 81-62 upset loss at Purdue as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Rutgers is a 5-point favorite with the total at 138.5.Oregon hosts Washington State on FS1 at 11 PM ET. The Ducks, 9-3, have lost two of three after a 75-64 upset loss at Oregon State as a 9-point favorite in their last game on January 23rd. The Cougars, 10-7, ended a six-game losing streak on Saturday with their 77-62 upset win at Washington as a 1.5-point underdog. Oregon is a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 135.Four games are on the NBA slate, including a doubleheader on TNT. Golden State plays at Dallas at 7:35 PM ET. The Warriors come off a 111-107 loss at home to Boston as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. The Mavericks ended their six-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 122-116 win in Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. The nightcap on TNT has the Los Angeles Lakers hosting Denver. The defending NBA champions, 16-6, return home to the Staples Center after a seven-game road trip that ended on Tuesday in a 107-99 win at Atlanta as a 7-point favorite. The Lakers are 5.5-point favorites, with the total at 219. The NHL has a busy nine card schedule with four games dropping the puck shortly after 7 PM ET. Colorado plays at home against Minnesota to conclude the card at 9 PM ET.The English Premier League concludes Matchweek 21 with Chelsea visiting Tottenham at 3 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. The match is on the NBC Sports Network. 

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Is Mahomes a Hall of Famer Right Now?

by ASA, Inc.

Wednesday, Feb 03, 2021

Patrick Mahomes: Youngest Hall of Famer Ever?  With a win this coming Sunday, Patrick Mahomes will vault himself into elite company with two Super Bowl wins. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and Big Ben are the only recent QBs to have two or more SB wins. Mahomes has arguably put together three of the best years by a quarterback in NFL history. He recently passed Aaron Rodgers for the all-time lead in passer rating as well as TD/INT ratio. He simply needed to accumulate enough pass attempts to finally qualify this season.   If Mahomes won the Super Bowl and then for some reason walked away from the game after this season, would he have had a Hall of Fame career? He already holds numerous records for efficiency along with having a league MVP. The stats are terrific but the eye test would make it even more obvious for anyone on the fence. Mahomes has made some of the most ridiculous throws in the history of the NFL. On the move, fading away, throwing across his body, and into tight coverage is something the Chiefs quarterback has made his living doing. The only comparable players to him are Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers (Maybe Josh Allen). Favre was a true gunslinger and ended with 336 INTs in his career and Mahomes has proven more efficient than Rodgers so far in his career. If Mahomes walked away after this season (hypothetically) he would already have one of the craziest highlight tapes ever. No offense to the GOAT but very few people have probably said “Throw on some Tom Brady highlights.” The one argument against Mahomes is that he has had elite weapons in all three of his seasons so far. Having offensive genius Andy Reid doesn’t hurt either. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been fantastic and deserve credit, but maybe Mahomes has just made them look good. The Chiefs have made the most of having a great QB on a rookie contract, but will surely have to sacrifice some key pieces moving forward since Mahomes is due half a billion dollars over the next 10 seasons. Either way, Mahomes has set the stage to be a Hall of Famer whenever he retires, even if it is after a Super Bowl win this season. 

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NCAA Wednesday Night Basketball: TCU/Oklahoma State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 03, 2021

A college basketball doubleheader on ESPN2 concludes at 9 PM ET in a rematch between two Big 12 teams.TCU pulled off their best win of the season on December 16th when they upset Oklahoma State on the road, 77-76, as a 5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs were down by 8 points with under two minutes to go but completed their comeback victory when R.J. Nembhard made the winning basket with 7.6 seconds left in the game. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team blew a 12-point lead with under five minutes to go on Saturday in a 102-98 loss in overtime at Missouri as a 10-point underdog in their Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup. Nembhard scored 15 points in the losing effort. The junior leads the team with a 16.6 points-per-game scoring average, and he is adding 4.4 rebounds-per-game and 3.9 assists-per-game. Mike Miles scored a career-high 28 points against the Tigers. The freshman guard is the team’s second-leading scorer with a 14.6 points-per-game average, and he is contributing 3.6 rebounds-per-game and 3.2 assists-per-game.Dixon returned two starters and six rotational players from the group that finished 16-16 last season. He also brought in former five-star recruit Chuck O’Bannon as a transfer from USC. TCU is on a five-game losing streak in the gauntlet that is the Big 12 this season. The Horned Frogs have lost to both Kansas and Oklahoma twice, and Baylor for their 2-5 record in the conference. TCU is 9-7 overall with their seventh loss against Providence. All seven of the Horned Frogs’ losses are against teams ranked in the kenpom’s top-64. TCU ranks 89th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 112th in adjusted defensive efficiency by kenpom. The Horned Frogs are second in the Big 12 by holding their opponents to 32.2% shooting from 3-point land.Oklahoma State raised their record to 11-4 with an 81-77 victory against Arkansas on Saturday as a 2-point favorite in their Big 12/SEC Challenge contest. Cade Cunningham returned to action in that game to score 14 of his 21 points in the second half to lead the Cowboys to win the victory. Cunningham had not played since January 4th, with Oklahoma State postponing two games because of COVID issues with him quarantining for an additional two contests. The freshman phenom is scoring 18.1 points-per-game with 6.2 rebounds-per-game and 3.8 assists-per-game. The 6’8 freshman point guard might be the number one pick in the NBA draft in June. Last year’s leading scorer, Isaac Likekely, is the second-leading scorer on the team with an 11.2 points-per-game average while adding 7.5 rebounds-per-game and 4.0 assists-per-game. The victory against the Razorbacks is the Cowboys’ best win against a non-conference opponent. They also have registered high-profile victories against Kansas and Texas Tech. Oklahoma State has a 4-4 record in the Big 12 with losses to Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, and their December loss to the Horned Frogs. The Cowboys rank 50th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency by kenpom. Their 53.6% shooting mark inside the arc is 57th nationally and second in the Big 12. They rank 32nd at kenpom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 48.6% in the Big 12 is the second-best in the conference.BetAnySports lists Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 141.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAA Basketball, NHL and EPL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 03, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features college basketball with additional action in the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off a 4 PM ET with James Madison hosting Elon at 4 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 141 (all odds from BetOnline). The nationally-televised schedule begins at 7 PM ET. Missouri hosts Kentucky on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Tigers rank 18th in the Associated Press poll with an 11-3 record. They have won four of their last five games after defeating TCU, 102-98, as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. The Wildcats, 5-10, have lost four of five after their 70-59 loss at Alabama as a 7-point underdog on January 26th. COVID complications have kept John Calipari’s team off the court since that setback. Missouri is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5.Alabama plays at home against LSU on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Crimson Tide rank 10th by the AP and are an 8.5-point favorite with the total at 163. Seton Hall visits Providence on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Pirates are a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 141. Oklahoma State travels to TCU on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Cowboys, 11-4, have won their last two games after defeating Arkansas, 81-77, as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. TCU has fallen to 9-7 with five straight losses after losing at Missouri, 102-98, as a 10-point underdog on Saturday. Oklahoma State is a 5-point road favorite with the total at 140.5. Villanova visits St. John’s on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Wildcats rank third in the AP poll. They are 8.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 152. Creighton plays at home against Georgetown on FS1. The AP has the Bluejays ranked 15th, and they are a 13-point favorite with the total at 149. SMU travels to Tulsa on ESPNU as a 2.5-point road favorite with the total at 135.San Diego State travels to New Mexico on FS1 at 11 PM ET. The Aztecs improved to 13-4 with their fourth straight victory on Saturday with their 98-71 win against Wyoming as an 18-point favorite. The Lobos, 5-11, have lost their last three games after a 65-55 loss at Fresno State as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. San Diego State is a 19-point road favorite with an over/under of 128.Ten games are on the NBA docket, headlined by a doubleheader on ESPN. Milwaukee hosts Indiana at 7 PM ET in the first game. The Bucks defeated Portland, 134-106, as a 10-point favorite on Monday. The Pacers had been upset in two straight games after their 119-110 loss to Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday, but bounced back strong at home last night with a 134-116 rout of the red-hot Memphis Grizzlies (who came in on a 7-game SU/ATS win streak). Milwaukee is an 8.5-point favorite, with the total at 232.5. The nightcap on ESPN has Phoenix visiting New Orleans at 9:35 PM ET. The Suns have won three in a row with two straight upset victories after they defeated Dallas on the road as a 2-point underdog on Monday. The Pelicans have lost two in a row with their 118-109 upset loss to Sacramento as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.Two games are on the NHL slate, with both televised on the NBC Sports Network. Tampa Bay plays at home against Detroit at 5:30 PM ET as a -293 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Boston visits Philadelphia at 8 PM ET as a -131 road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The English Premier League has five matches on tap for Wednesday, with two games beginning the action at 1 PM ET. Liverpool plays at home against Brighton and Hove Albion on the NBC Sports Network at 3:15 PM ET as a -1.25 goal line favorite with the total at 2.75.

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Ness Notes: The Super Bowl (A Look Back)

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Feb 02, 2021

The AFL and NFL announced that the two leagues had agreed to a merger on the evening of June 8, 1966. Under the agreement, the leagues maintained separate regular-season schedules for the next four seasons (from 1966 through 1969) and then officially merged before the 1970 season to form one league with two conferences (AFC and NFC). An AFL/NFL championship game would begin at the completion of the 1966 season (AFL champ vs NFL champ) through the 1969 season, then would continue beginning in the 1970 season with the AFC champ meeting the NFC champ.The first championship game between the AFL and NFL was played on January 15, 1967 at Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Green Bay Packers (the name Super Bowl was not adopted until SB III). Vince Lombardi's Packers beat Hank Stram's Chiefs 35-10. Green Bay beat the Oakland Raiders 33-14 the following season but then Namath and the NY Jets shocked the football world with their 16-7 win over the Baltimore Colts on January 12, 1969 (1968 season). The final Super Bowl before the official merger was played on January 11, 1970, when Hank Stram's Chiefs beat Bud Grant's Vikings 23-7.While the Chiefs played in two of the first four Super Bowls, they didn't make a "return engagement" until last season. The Chiefs took on the SF 49ers last January and celebrated the 50th anniversary of the franchise's only Super Bowl victory with a 31-20 win (trailed 20-10 midway through the fourth-quarter). Entering championship Sunday of the current season (January 24, 2021), the defending champions Chiefs were set to host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC's title game, while the Packers were set to host the Bucs in the NFC. The Chiefs and Packers were both three-point favorites and if the two No. 1 seeds had won, it would have set up a rematch of the very first Super Bowl. The Chiefs held up their end with a 38-24 victory over the Bills but the ageless Tom Brady led the Bucs to a 31-26 upset of the Packers, ruining a KC/GB 'reunion!' However, I doubt the NFL, the media or the fans are upset with a Tampa Bay/Kansas City Super Bowl, a showdown between the "G.O.A.T." (Tom Brady) and the "G.O.A.T. in Waiting," Patrick Mahomes. In fact, that will be the title of my next article, posted on Friday. The established NFL won the first two Super Bowls but the upstarts from the AFL evened it at two-all with wins by the Jets and Chiefs. The first post-merger Super Bowl was after the 1970 season and over the next 11 seasons, AFC teams won NINE of the 11 Super Bowls. However, there is a caveat. The Baltimore Colts (Super Bowl V winners) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (winners of four Super Bowls in six seasons from 1974-1979) were two of three NFL teams that had agreed to move from the "Old NFL" to the AFC, not remain in the NFC. The third franchise to move to the AFC (from the NFL) was the ever-lovable Browns, who are still waiting for that franchise's first-ever Super Bowl appearance, no less a Super Bowl win.Traditional NFL fans may just question if those FIVE Super Bowl wins by the Colts and Steelers (as AFC teams) deserve an asterisk. However, there can be NO doubt about the NFC's dominance over the AFC from Super Bowl 16 through 31. In that 16-year span, NFC teams won 15 of the 16 Super Bowls, as only the then-Los Angeles Raiders broke through with a 38-9 win over Washington in SB 18 (1983 season). Following that win by the Raiders, NFC teams won 13 straight Super Bowls, with 11 coming by double digits. The exceptions were San Francisco's 'John Candy' SB 23 win 20-16 over the Bengals (hope readers get it) and the NY Giants' SB 25 "Wide-Right" 20-19 win over the Bills (sure all will get that reference!). The other 11 wins in that 13-0 run by the NFC saw an average margin of victory of 17.6 PPG.The AFC has had the better of it since ending the NFC's 13-0 run when the Broncos beat the defending champion Packers 31-24 in SB 32. Entering Sunday's game, the AFC has captured 15 of the last 23 Super Bowls, with the Patriots accounting for SIX of those wins during that span. New England's six titles puts them in a tie with Pittsburgh, while San Francisco and Dallas have each won five Super Bowls. Only NINE franchises have won at least three Super Bowls, meaning the Chiefs can make it 10, if they can repeat as champs. However, only SEVEN franchises have won consecutive Super Bowls, one of which (Pittsburgh) has accomplished it twice. The most recent team to win back-to-back Super Bowls were the Patriots, who beat the Panthers (2003 season) and then the Eagles (2004). Of course, Brady was New England's QB for those back-to-back wins but some may not remember that Andy Reid was Philadelphia's head coach when the Eagles lost 24-21 to the Pats in SB 39. He'll be on the sidelines for KC come Sunday, looking to join an elite group of head coaches to have won consecutive Super Bowl titles. That group includes Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Chuck Noll (did it twice!), Jimmy Johnson, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick. Think I missed one? Think again. The 49ers won back-to-back Super Bowls (23 & 24) but while Bill Walsh was the team's head coach in the first, George Seifert had taken over the following season when Walsh retired after earning a third Super Bowl titleCheck back Friday for my Brady vs Mahomes article. Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Tuesday Night Basketball: Baylor/Texas Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 02, 2021

A college basketball doubleheader on ESPN tips off at 7 PM ET with a Big 12 battle between two of the top six teams in the nation.Baylor ranks second in the Associated Press poll with a 16-0 record. The Bears defeated Auburn, 84-72, as a 14-point favorite in their Big 12/SEC Challenge matchup on Saturday. Head coach Scott Drew got key contributions from his bench in the victory, with Adam Flagler leading the way with 19 points and Mathew Mayer adding 13 points in just 15 minutes of play. Jared Butler contributed 16 points with five assists. Butler is the team’s leading scorer with a 16.0 points-per-game average. Butler is amongst six players that score at least 8.2 points-per-game for the Bears. Head coach Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging at least 13 minutes per game. Drew had six players return from the rotation that finished 26-4 last year.Baylor has high-profile victories against Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the win against the surging Tigers over the weekend. Baylor has the third-best offense in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the numbers at kenpom. They lead the nation with a 43.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Bears rank fourth by rebounding 38.2% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is also the third-best in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 26.0% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking fifth. If there was a weakness to this team, it might start with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 29.9% of their missed shots, 241st in the nation. The Bears do not get as many freebies on the charity stripe given a free throw rate that is 264th.Texas takes the court for the first time since January 26th, when they were upset at home against Oklahoma as a 3.5-point favorite, 80-79. The Longhorns’ showdown with Kentucky on Saturday in their Big 12/SEC Challenge contest got canceled due to the Wildcats' inability to field a team given COVID issues. Head coach Shaka Smart’s team was not going to be at full strength in that game against John Calipari’s group. Starters Courtney Ramey and Jericho Sims were unavailable due to COVID protocols. Smart was also in quarantine with COVID symptoms and not going to be on the sidelines for that non-conference game. All three individuals expect to be on the court tonight. The Longhorns have lost two of their last three games to fall to 11-3 this season. They rank sixth in the AP poll. Texas has several impressive victories against Indiana and North Carolina en route to winning the Maui Invitational while adding wins against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia. Their three losses to Villanova, Texas Tech, and the Sooners were all at home to nationally-ranked teams by a combined seven points. Smart’s job was in jeopardy last season. The team hit a low point in an 81-52 loss at Iowa State. Yet Smart rallied his team to win five of their last six games to finish with a 19-12 record in a season interrupted to COVID. Texas was on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. Smart's team has won 16 of their last 20 games since that drubbing to the Cyclones. The Longhorns returned twelve players, including all five starters from last year. Smart added a likely one-and-done freshman in Greg Brown, who is contributing 11.8 points-per-game and 8.0 rebounds-per-game. Texas has five players scoring at least 9.0 points-per-game, led by Andrew Jones with a 14.3 points-per-game average.Texas ranks 18th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. On defense, the Longhorns are fourteenth in adjusted defensive efficiency fueled by their half-court defense as they hold their opponents to a 43.8% effective field goal percentage, eighth-best in the country. BookMaker lists Baylor as a 5-point road favorite with the total set at 144.5.

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Get Chiefs +550 To Win the Super Bowl Right Now!

by Will Rogers

Tuesday, Feb 02, 2021

Like the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl? You can get them at +550.Wait, what?There’s a catch, as there always is. We’re talking about NEXT YEAR’S Super Bowl. William Hill and a few other sites have futures odds already posted for Super Bowl LVI – and in a move that surprises absolutely no one, the Chiefs are heavy favorites.Setting odds for a Super Bowl 12 months in advance is as precarious as betting on it, especially when those in the know are predicting that as many as 10 to 12 teams will have different starting quarterbacks when the new (hopefully Covid-free) season kicks off in September.Barring injury or something unexpected, KC will not be one of the teams in QB transition and will have MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes under center for the fifth season of what should be a long career in the Midwest.After that, things get interesting.***Green Bay, where Aaron Rodgers is making noise about not being all that happy with management, is at +900. That ticket could either be gold or fool’s gold, depending on how angry Rodgers is, and whether he demands to be traded or he and the Pack kiss and make up.***Tom Brady will be entering his age 44 season when his Bucs begin their quest to make it two Super Bowls in succession, and right now William Hill will sell you that ticket at +1000. That number could fluctuate considerably depending on how he looks in this Sunday’s SB.***Buffalo (+1100), Baltimore (+1200) and Seattle (+1600) have QB stability on their sides. Cleveland does as well, but books apparently aren’t sold on Baker Mayfield as the Browns can be had at +2500. Miami is also at +2500, perhaps a reflection of the uncertainty about Tua Tagovailoa’s long-term job security.***Three franchises that have been playoff staples over the years – New England, Pittsburgh and New Orleans – are either in QB flux or may be. The Patriots, who will be QB shopping for the second straight season, are a +6000 long shot; no one really knows what will happen in Pittsburgh (+2500) as Ben Roethlisberger and the team stare at the abyss after that stunning playoff loss to Cleveland; and the Saints (+1600) have a smidgeon of stability as they expect to turn things over to backup Jameis Winston.***Remember Joe Burrow? The future of the Bengals franchise was sidelined for the season last November, but word out of Cincinnati is that he’s recovering quicker than expected from that ACL tear and may even be ready for at least part of training camp. Unimpressed with that news, William Hill lists Cincinnati at +10000.***Finally, there is the hot mess that is the Houston Texans. In a case of unrequited love, the Texans heart Watson but the feeling isn’t mutual. Figuring that Watson will have to be traded sometime before next season, the Texans are also at +10000.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NHL, NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 02, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features college basketball with action in the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 5 PM ET, with Marquette hosting Butler on FS1. The Golden Eagles, 8-9, have lost three in a row after getting upset on Sunday at home to St. John’s, 75-73, as a 3.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs fell to 5-9 with two straight losses with their 68-65 upset loss against Xavier as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Marquette is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 130 (all odds from BetOnline). Baylor visits Texas at 7 PM ET on ESPN in a battle of two of the top six teams in the nation. The Bears’ 16-0 record puts them second in the Associated Press poll. They defeated Auburn, 84-72, as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. The Longhorns, 11-3, are sixth by the AP. They have lost two of their last three games after their 80-79 loss to Oklahoma as a 3.5-point favorite on January 26th. Baylor is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. Iowa plays at home against Michigan State on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Hawkeyes rank 8th by the AP with a 12-4 record. They have lost their last two games after losing at Illinois on Friday, 80-75, as a 3-point underdog. The Spartans fell to 8-6 with their third straight loss as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Iowa is a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5.Tennessee plays at Mississippi on ESPN2 at ESPN2. The Volunteers are 11th in the AP poll with a 12-3 record. They defeated Kansas by an 80-61 score as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. The Rebels dropped to 8-8 with a 71-61 upset loss at Georgia as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Tennessee is a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 124.Illinois visits Indiana on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Illini rank 12th in the nation with an 11-5 record. They won their second straight game on Friday by defeating Iowa, 80-75, as a 3-point favorite. The Hoosiers fell to 9-7 with a 74-70 upset loss to Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite on January 24th. Illinois is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 143.USC is on the road at Stanford on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Trojans improved to 13-3 after their 75-62 victory as a 13.5-point favorite on January 26th. The Cardinal fell to 10-6 on Saturday in a 79-75 loss at Arizona State. USC is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 139.Nevada hosts UNLV on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Wolf Pack, 10-7,  defeated the Rebels on Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. UNLV fell to 6-8 with the loss. Nevada is a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 143 in the rematch. Dayton plays at Duquesne on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Flyers improved to 10-4 with their 67-56 victory against Rhode Island as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Dukes, 6-6, won their third game in their last four with their 67-50 win against St. Joseph’s as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. Dayton is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 130.Six games are on the NBA schedule. A doubleheader on TNT begins at 7:35 PM ET, with the Los Angeles Clippers playing at Brooklyn. The Clippers improved to 16-5 on Sunday with their 129-115 win at New York as a 9.5-point favorite. The Nets fell to 13-9 after losing at Washington, 149-146, as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The nightcap on TNT has Boston visiting Golden State at 10:05 PM ET. The Celtics fell to 10-8 after losing to the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Warriors improved to 11-9 with their 118-91 victory against Detroit as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Boston is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 224.5.Ten games are on tap in the NHL. The NBC Sports Network has a doubleheader starting at 6 PM ET with the New York Islanders hosting Buffalo. New York has lost five in a row with their 4-3 loss at Philadelphia on Sunday. The Sabres lost to New Jersey by a 5-3 score on Sunday. The Islanders are a -134 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Minnesota plays at Colorado in the second game on the NBC Sports Network at 8:30 PM ET. The Avalanche defeated the Wild on Sunday by a 4-3 score.Four matches take place in the English Premier League to being Matchweek 22. Arsenal visits Wolverhampton on the NBC Sports Network at 1 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.25. Manchester United hosts Southampton on the NBC Sports Network at 3:15 PM ET as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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NHL Monday Night Hockey: Penguins/Rangers Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 01, 2021

The NBC Sports Network on Monday features a rematch of East Division rivals from their Saturday thriller. Pittsburgh won their fifth game in their last seven contests with their 4-3 victory over the Rangers in overtime. Trailing 3-2 in the third period, Jake Guentzel tied the game at the 9:18 mark of the third period. Sidney Crosby then won the game at the 2:27 mark in overtime to pick up the two points. The Penguins began their season with two losses at Philadelphia. Since that slow start, Pittsburgh has gone 5-1-1, with their 11 points putting them in fourth place in the East. They tie with Toronto with five victories decided by just one goal. Crosby’s team has been living on the edge this season. They are 3-3-1 when trailing after two periods. Pittsburgh has won four times in overtime already this year, including twice against the Rangers. The Penguins defeated New York at home by a 4-3 score on January 22nd via the shootout. Pittsburgh is thin on their blue line right now, with defenseman Kris Letang suffering a lower-body injury in the first period of the game on Saturday. He is out for tonight. The Penguins already placed defensemen Marcus Pettersson, Brian Dumoulin, Juuso Riikola, and Mike Matheson on their Injured Reserve last month. New York is just 1-3-2 in their last six games after the overtime loss on Saturday. All six of these games were decided by one goal. The Rangers are struggling to protect leads. They blew three leads against the Penguins on Saturday. They are also just 2-1-2 in games when entering the third period with a lead. New York had playoff aspirations to begin the season after drafting the number one player in the 2020 draft, Alex Lafrenierre. Yet the Rangers find themselves in last place in the eight-team East Division with only six points. Head coach David Quinn has been rotating his two goaltenders this season with Alexander Georgiev between the pipes in the loss on Saturday. Igor Shesterkin should get the start tonight. He last played on Thursday in a 3-2 win in Buffalo in overtime where he allowed only two goals. Shesterkin has a 2.73 goals-against-average with a .894 save percentage in five games and four starts.Penguins’ head coach Mike Sullivan will keep Casey DeSmith in goal tonight after he allowed four goals in holding on to the victory on Saturday against the Rangers. DeSmith is 3-0-0 this season in four games and three starts. He has a 3.05 goals-against-average with a .875 save percentage. New York has won only one of their four games at Madison Square Garden this season. They shutout the Islanders on January 16th, 5-0. Pittsburgh’s lone victory this season away from home in five games this season was their triumph in MSG on Saturday. BetAnySports lists the Penguins as a -108 money line road favorite with the total set at 6.5. The NBC Sports Network broadcast starts at 7 PM ET.

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