Final Four Facts
Villanova vs. Kansas - Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. The Under is 3-1 for them. Same for ‘Nova with the Under cashing each of the last three. All four tourney opponents have shot worse than 35.7% against KU. Nova has held its last two opponents to 34.4% and 29.8% from the field. At the same time, the Wildcats have shot 37.3% and 28.8% in those same two games. Houston made just 1 of 20 three-point tries against ‘Nova in the Elite 8! Villanova’s own three-point shooting percentage has decreased every game in the tournament, going from 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0% to 23.8%. Kansas’ last two opponents combined to go 7 of 44 on 3PA. The Wildcats aren’t just the best free throw shooting team in the country, they are one of the best FT shooting teams in the history of college basketball. Kansas shoots just 72% from the charity stripe.
Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is 7-5 ATS. The Under is 9-2 in those same 11 neutral site games for ‘Nova. But the Over is 5-1 this year for KU following a game where they gave up fewer than 60 points. They allowed 50 vs. Miami.
The highest seeded team Kansas beat was Providence (#4). The highest seeded team beaten by Villanova was Houston (#5).
Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. The initial line move went Kansas’ way. The total is also up half a point.
Head to head, Villanova has covered the last five meetings. That goes back to 2013. The last time the teams played was December 2019. Two of the five games were in the NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina vs. Duke - UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. After North Carolina’s first two tournament games both went Over (they scored 90+ both times), the Under has hit in each of the last two. They’ve gone from averaging 94 PPG the first two (including OT vs. Baylor) to 71 PPG the last two. Duke has scored at least 78 in all four of its games with the Over sitting at 2-1-1. The Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games.
Duke is shooting well over 50% for the NCAA Tournament, but UNC has held three opponents to 35.6% or worse. After facing a 9-seed, 1-seed and 4-seed in the first three rounds, the Tar Heels were a bit lucky to get a 15-seed in the Elite 8. Duke’s journey began by facing a 15-seed. Since then, they’ve gone up against a 7, 3 and 4 seed.
Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. The last six times these long-time rivals have met, the Over has hit. This O/U line is right in the same neighborhood as those last six. The Tar Heels are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, but just 5-5 straight up and Duke has come out ahead on the scoreboard in five of the last seven.
The Over is 46-18 the last 64 times Duke has taken on a team that has a winning record. The Over has hit six straight times for North Carolina in that very situation.
Obviously, Unders dominated in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, going 10-1–1.
See you Saturday!