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The Cincinnati Bengals Laying More than a Touchdown? A Brave New World!

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Oct 01, 2021

Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. That is what I told clients on the last day in September with the Thursday Night game to begin Week Four in our play on the Jacksonville. Admittedly, anyone betting this game was forced to invest in a bad team since the Jaguars were playing the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals’ faithful saw their team in a situation that they have not enjoyed in many years. With the Bengals laying 7.5-points in most spots, it was just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals that his team was the point spread favorite — and it was the first time that Cincinnati was every laying more than a field goal in Taylor’s tenure. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this was a different Jacksonville team who went into halftime with a 14-0 lead before losing by a 24-21 score. Meyer’s decision to forego kicking a field goal at the end of the first half may have won him fans from the football analytics community live-tweeting during the game, but Jacksonville could have sure used three more points at the end of that game. Frankly, the Bengals were primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals were able to pull off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary for once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. Who knows what the future will hold this season regarding how I feel about this Bengals team. Bettors and handicappers make a mistake to get stuck in preconceived notions. Some teams improve, while other teams falter. However, I do not see myself backing Zac Taylor’s team too often if they find themselves laying more than a touchdown again this season. I don’t think I have the courage quite yet for that Brave New World.Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL 2021: Early Season Reads

by Power Sports

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

It feels like the 2021 NFL season just started. But, believe it or not, we’re about to be four weeks in. It used to be that marked the quarter post. But now we’ve got 17 regular season games. Still, I thought this would be a good time to make some early assessments on who is likely to make the playoffs in the two conferences.Buffalo was a surprise loser in Week 1. Since then they’ve outscored two opponents 78-21. Even with the loss, the Bills are tied with the 3-0 Broncos for the best point differential through three weeks (+50). Expect them to run away with the AFC East. The Tua-less Dolphins are going to regress, the Patriots aren’t going to be better than middle of the road with rookie QB Mac Jones and the Jets are awful.Tennessee should also be a runaway division winner in the AFC. Not nearly as impressive as Buffalo so far, the Titans will instead benefit from a weak South Division. Houston and Jacksonville are two of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis, off to an 0-3 start, looks like one of the big regression teams this year.The AFC North will likely produce two playoff teams and I’m talking about Baltimore and Cleveland. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, both the Ravens and Browns will be favored in all of their remaining games except one - when they visit one another. Pittsburgh’s streak of non-losing seasons, which goes back to 2003, could be in jeopardy. Big Ben is toast and the team has lost seven of nine games going back to the end of 2020. Cincinnati, off to its first 2-1 start in three years, is improved but not yet ready to contend for the playoffs.The West is definitely going to produce multiple playoff teams, likely three, but all four are thinking playoffs this year. Shockingly, the two-time defending AFC Champion Chiefs are the team in last place right now. They are a dreadful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games. Regression was due after an extremely fortunate record in one-run games last year. The Raiders and Broncos are the two 3-0 teams in the division. But two of Las Vegas’ three wins came in OT. Denver’s first three opponents are a combined 0-9. Don’t look past the Chargers’ improvement either as they thankfully rid themselves of the odious Anthony Lynn. My guess is that the Raiders will be the “odd team out” come playoff time.Tampa Bay is probably the most certain division winner in the NFC. The Saints aren’t as good as they used to be. Carolina is off to a 3-0 start, but Christian McCaffery is hurt. It’s hard to envision a team with Sam Darnold at QB making the playoffs. Atlanta just isn’t very good.I think Dallas might be just as likely to win the East as Tampa Bay is to win the South. For the Cowboys, it’s very similar to what I talked about with Tennessee in the AFC South. The rest of the division stinks. Washington is a clear regression team while the Eagles and Giants are both bad.After a disastrous Week 1 showing, Green Bay has won two straight and Aaron Rodgers has the Cheeseheads R-E-L-A-X-I-N-G. I’d still make the Packers the favorite to win the NFC North, but they definitely aren’t winning as many games as they did last season. If the Vikings can get their act together, they will challenge the Pack. They might be 1-2, but Minnesota could easily be 3-0 right now. The Pack and Vikes need not worry about the Bears and Lions as the latter two seem destined for double digit losses.That brings us to the NFC West, which is pretty easily the best division in football. Three teams will definitely make the playoffs and it could be all four. The Rams already beat the Buccaneers and could end up as the #1 overall seed. Matt Stafford is a clear upgrade over Jared Goff. I like Arizona too as long as Kyler Murray stays healthy. San Francisco was on everyone’s shortlist for most improved teams in 2021. Even with some early attrition and question marks surrounding Jimmy G, I think the Niners win 10 games. So Seattle could be the odd team out come playoff time, which sounds shocking. They will battle with the Saints and the second place team in the North for that 7th playoff spot.See you next month!  

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The Detroit Lions: For Those Who Bet Numbers (Not Teams)

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

The betting public tends to want to bet for or against teams. Those looking to share the perspective of the oddsmakers look at the numbers before assessing a team’s ability to cover that point spread. These bettors may develop the habit of consistently backing the Detroit Lions this season.After 33 losses in Matt Patricia’s three seasons as the Detroit head coach, it is of little surprise that bettors are not fond of betting on the Lions. Detroit has been an underdog of more than a touchdown in each of their first three games. Dan Campbell is the new head coach after serving as the interim head coach for the Miami Dolphins in 2015 after Joe Philbin was let go after four games. Campbell led the team to win five of their remaining twelve games while drawing national attention for doing gimmicky things like bring the Oklahoma drill to practices. After serving on Sean Payton’s coaching staff as the tight ends coach, Campbell got hired by the Lions in the offseason. His eccentric nature was ridiculed by the sports media when he talked in introductory press conferences about his team biting knee caps to demonstrate the fight and resolve he expects from his players. Yet these comments may have hit the right cord for the fans (and players) in Detroit who found Patricia aloof and a beneficiary of being a former defensive coordinator for Bill Belichick. Campbell knows the city and the mentality of the fanbase as a former player for the Lions himself.Campbell has assembled an intriguing coaching team around him. Anthony Lynn is a good offensive mind at offensive coordinator who is now being rumored as a candidate for the heading coaching job at USC. Lynn’s biggest failing as the head coach of the Chargers was his game management late in games. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is one of the hot young coaches in the game. After being a leader for many of Bill Parcel’s defenses for the New York Jets and later the Dallas Cowboys, he shined as the defensive backs coach at New Orleans, where he first worked with Campbell. Veteran defensive coach Dom Capers is a special consultant. Campbell is a Bill Parcells-disciple, as well, who is taking on the role of CEO head coach. The national media may not have bought in right away, yet the players seem to have become believers in Campbell. It would be easy for the Lions to fold after falling behind to San Francisco, 38-10, midway through the third quarter in their opening game of the season. Yet Detroit kept fighting by outscoring the 49ers 23-3 the rest of the way including making both of their 2-point conversions to put the game within one scoring possession before losing 41-33. The Lions then held a 17-14 halftime lead in Green Bay on Monday Night Football. A failed fourth-down attempt deep in Packers’ territory early in the second half changed the momentum of that game. The final score, 35-17, does not accurately reflect how competitive that game was. Detroit won the yardage battle, 344-323. Detroit then rallied from a 10-0 halftime deficit to take a 17-16 lead against Baltimore last week before the Ravens’ kicker, Justin Tucker, kicked an NFL record 66-yard field goal to win the game. Perhaps it was only a former Lions’ player who could appreciate the bad turn of events for the club when replays revealed that the referees failed to call a delay of game penalty on Baltimore that should have nullified the successful kick. Campbell acknowledged the error, dismissed any eventual apology from the league as useless, and then got his team focused for their next game. It is going to take some time to rebuild the roster that Patricia left behind. Yet what this team may lack in talent, they will make up for by being prepared and not giving up. Detroit will probably be underdogs in most of their games this season. For those who bet numbers not teams, the Lions will present some interesting possibilities as the season moves forward.Good luck - TDG.

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Dan Quinn's Immediate Impact on the Dallas Cowboys' Defense

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Mike McCarthy knew the Dallas defense needed all the help it could get after allowing 29.8 points per game last season. His new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has energized the unit. Even after three games this season, his impact on the defensive unit is quite apparent.After getting fired as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Quinn conducted a self-assessment of his defensive principles from his time as the defensive coordinator for Pete Carroll in Seattle to update his ideas for the ever-evolving offenses in the NFL. Quinn became the head coach for the Falcons after serving as the Seahawks defensive coordinator for two seasons culminating with their Super Bowl victory in 2014. His reputation as a defensive mastermind only strengthened with the steady improvement of the Atlanta defense in their Super run in the 2016-17 season, which ended in their epic fourth-quarter collapse to New England. Disappointing play from his defenses since that year and three straight losing seasons eventually led to owner Arthur Blank letting Quinn go in the off-season. McCarthy quickly scooped him up to replace his defensive coordinator last year, Mike Nolan.Quinn has played less cover-3 defense with the Cowboys with more single-high safety or two-zone safety looks. He is adapting to the talent he inherited, and he is simplifying schemes, so his players play fast. One of the problems that Dallas had last year was the system change to a 3-4 under new coordinator Mike Nolan. The COVID pandemic made that transition more challenging, and Nolan did not adjust well to teaching his concepts from zoom meetings. The Cowboys signed six new defensive players in free agency and drafted eight rookies to contribute to the defense, including their top-six picks. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones hit a home run in the drafting of linebacker Micah Parsons out of Penn State. After the injury to DeMarcus Lawrence, Quinn moved Parsons to defensive end, a position he had not played since high school. Parsons has thrived in that role. Quinn’s defense is making big plays. They have forced eight turnovers in their first three games, with three of them in the red zone. Dallas may be allowing over 400 yards per game, but they have played against two strong offenses in the Buccaneers and Chargers. They held those two offenses to 24.5 points per game. They only allowed 14 offensive points to Philadelphia on Monday, with the Eagles’ third touchdown being from a Dak Prescott fumble that they recovered in the end zone. The Cowboys were second-to-last in the NFL last season by allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Four opponents gashed them for over 200 yards on the ground. This year, they have not given up 100 or more rushing yards in a game while holding their three opponents to 70 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL with ten different players all moving at a speed of at least 19 miles per hour. Quinn deserves the credit. His schemes are helping his players play faster, with less thinking and more instinctual reacting. Good luck - TDG.

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Joe Judge on Analytics (and the Self-Own of his Critics)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

New York Giants head coach Joe Judge got in trouble with the self-professed smartest guys online when he failed to demonstrate proper deference to the Analytics God. Here were Judge’s comments in a press conference earlier this week. "Analytics is just a tool. It’s nice to look at the numbers and how they go through the flow of the game, but the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game, and how the flow of the game is going, too. You can look at a stat sheet all ya want. I promise ya if Excel was gonna win football games, Bill Gates would be killing it right now. But you've got to take those numbers as a tool and go ahead and factor in how your team's playing at the time and how the opponent is as well. You’ve got to measure your strengths and weaknesses against the opponent every time and then also in terms of the flow of the game.”Judge’s tone and suggestion that analytics can be expressed by a simple Excel one-sheet have been ridiculed by many who profess to be devotees to football analytics, whatever that means (more on that below). Football statistics and metrics are attractive for a variety of reasons. One of the appeals for those who like to invoke “The Numbers” is that it offers the allure of a superior intelligence without having to do the work of province a warrant to defend the claim. And when capital-A “Analytics” is used as the cover, then the individual gets hide find the protection of the mob. “Joe Judge doesn’t believe in analytics, what an idiot” is the perfect sentiment for those whose deepest thoughts come in 280 characters or less. As an aside, those familiar with my work know that I value analytics. It was the addition of basketball analytics into my handicapping toolbox that helped conclude the 2010 NCAA Tournament on a 20-4 ATS run after the first day of the Big Dance. Sabermetrics has been a foundational aspect of my handicapping of MLB regarding the respective starting pitchers since Day One in the field. Expected goals (xG) play a critical role in my handicapping of soccer and the NHL. Analytics plays a role in my football handicapping, but I consider much of that work so fundamentally flawed that I take many of their predictive numbers with a large grain of salt. I am not anti-analytics. I am anti-lazy thinking (and making claims without warrants). Interestingly, the criticism of Judge’s comments exposes some assumptions many (not all) in the football analytics community make that would probably not withstand scrutiny if put under a microscope. Many football analytics adherents seem to advocate that there is a One Truth exposed by analytics as The Way. “The numbers say go for it on fourth-and-one.” Well, where did those numbers come from? League-wide data? What years? Does it include the pandemic season without fans in the stands? How big is the sample size? How big should the sample size be? Does that league-wide data treat Derrick Henry’s fourth-and-one numbers as equally relevant to those numbers for, say, Theo Riddick? Is Judge wrong when he argues that “the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game and how the flow of the game is going, too”? Do the football analytics folks really want to suggest that there is no statistical difference between Saquon Barkley rushing the football on 4th-and-one versus Gary Brightwell, their sixth-round pick from Arizona? Is there no statistical difference between attempting a fourth-and-down rushing play against the Tampa Bay run defense as opposed to the Detroit run defense? Another assumption many in the analytics community makes is that every statistical moment is the same. Many in the analytics basketball community presume this when defending the use of shooting tons of 3-pointers. They are later surprised when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight 3-pointers in Game Seven of the 2018 NBA Western Conference Finals. Too many in the quantitative field rigidly support the belief that those 27 misses could have just as easily happened on a Tuesday night in February of the regular season. To suggest otherwise is to expose a fundamental problem with their project: that the numbers may not apply as nicely to the situation at hand. For those interested in nuance and perspective, this revelation is not threatening. For those who have a vested interest — financial or otherwise — this proposition is an existential threat. It is not a radical idea to offer that basketball teams not good at shooting 3-pointers should shoot less of them (in place of higher percentage shots for their team’s skillsets). This is probably true even after confronting the fact that 3-point baskets offer 50% more value than 2-point baskets. Is it a radical idea by Judge that perhaps the percentages for his team on 4th-and-one may not be as prolific as that of the Kansas City Chiefs?And is it a radical idea that going for it on fourth-and-one (to continue using this one example since it most often gets deployed by the football analytics folks as if there is capital-t Truth answer to this question that can fit on an Excel sheet) that the answer may change based on field position, game score, and how much time is left in the game?The other major sports are getting better at appreciating that rather than establishing an Analytics Department to expose the Truth, instead the use of numbers and statistics is fluid that can be exploited for a strategic advantage. All numbers are not created equal because all formulas are not created equal. Some analytics are simply more illuminating. While yards per game offer some value, yards-per-play may offer a more insightful perspective. Just like the NFL has 32 unique scouting departments that make different evaluations, the league will eventually have 32 unique analytics departments that have differing views — and this is before head coaches then interpret that data based on his available personnel, the score of the game, and the moment in the game. Just using the analytics umbrella does not provide invincibility against potential critique. The audience is not privy to the NextGen formulas used to develop their stats ESPN hawks (in partnership) regarding what a coach should do in a certain situation. The broadcast is not a math class, but it is theater. It’s a smaller narrative within the bigger story. Many statistical models in football do not put any value on first downs and time of possession. Do they do this because they disagree with many football coaches who find both those aspects of the game critical? Or, do they do it because it is more convenient to ignore those facets of the game? Using Yards-Per-Play as the base unit of efficiency is easier than the messy work of determining how to value the reset of downs offered by generating 10 yards in four plays. There are many differences between Joe Judge and his critics, but one I would like to close with is this: it is only Judge that risks losing his job if gets a football decision wrong. His critics risk nothing. Many of his critics have a vested financial interest in presenting their criticism since that it is the foundation of their business model. When contemplating going for it on fourth-and-one (to torture this one example), I suspect there would be a quick about-face in opinion if the critic were to lose their job if they got the decision wrong. In fact, I suspect all it would take for many of his critics to demonstrate caution and nuance would be the mere threat of being blocked or unliked if their opinion from the cheap seats turned out to be correct. Best of luck — Frank.

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The NBA Is Back! 

by Ben Burns

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

After closing out the playoffs on a 14-2 run, I'm pretty excited to have the NBA back. The preseason starts this weekend. The Nets and the Lakers tip things off, Sunday afternoon. Regular season action begins on October 18th. Opening night includes a pair of intriguing matchups. Once again, both the Nets and the Lakers are featured. Brooklyn visits Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Lebron and co. will host Curry and the Warriors.  A few months later, the Nets and Lakers will meet in primetime, on Christmas Day.With the extra TV time being awarded to them, it's not surprising that Nets and Lakers are the two favorites to take home the title. As of this writing, Pinnacle has the Nets listed at +217 and the Lakers at +355. Not much value there. At +837, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks are the only other team being given much of a chance. Given that the Bucks are playing in a far less competitive division than the Nets, they seem like a relative bargain. Check out the list below.There are also odds for which player wins the MVP award. There are a number of players in the running. At +487, Luca Doncic is the favorite. He's a great player and is an excellent position to put up huge stats. Perhaps, this will be his year. Still, in my estimation, there's much better value on the board. Young stars like Trae Young, Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum are all being offered at better than 20-1. You'll also find those odds below. October 18th will be here before you know it. Make sure to use the next couple of weeks getting caught up on what's been going on and learning the current state of the teams. Until then, enjoy the baseball and football! Odds To Win TitleAtlanta Hawks +4318Boston Celtics +3527Brooklyn Nets +217Charlotte Hornets +8029Chicago Bulls +8633Cleveland Cavaliers +26959Dallas Mavericks +3672Denver Nuggets +2165Detroit Pistons +26959Golden State Warriors +1267Houston Rockets +26959Indiana Pacers +10789Los Angeles Clippers +2165Los Angeles Lakers +355Memphis Grizzlies +10478Miami Heat +2810Milwaukee Bucks +837Minnesota Timberwolves +26188New Orleans Pelicans +11526New York Knicks +10789Oklahoma City Thunder +26959Orlando Magic +26959Philadelphia 76ers +2261Phoenix Suns +1516Portland Trail Blazers +8093Sacramento Kings +25882San Antonio Spurs +13484Toronto Raptors +8124Utah Jazz +1516Washington Wizards +18874Odds To Win Regular Season MVPLuka Doncic +487Giannis Antetokounmpo +710Joel Embiid +812Kevin Durant +754Stephen Curry +812Damian Lillard +1217LeBron James +1419Nikola Jokic +1622Trae Young +2129James Harden +2029Anthony Davis +2837Devin Booker +2837Jayson Tatum +2538Donovan Mitchell +3040Paul George +3648Russell Westbrook +3648Zion Williamson +4256Kyrie Irving +4256Bradley Beal +5573Ja Morant +5573Domantas Sabonis +7599Julius Randle +6587Karl-Anthony Towns +6587Jimmy Butler +6587Zach Lavine +7093Chris Paul +7093

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NHL Metropolitan Division Preview 2021-22

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Metropolitan Division 2021-22 Point Total PredictionsWith last season being just 56 games, the first point total listed is the number of points the team earned in the standings last season but extrapolated over a normal 82 game season. Then the second total listed is my prediction range for this season. Carolina Hurricanes – 117 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. Now have veterans at the goaltending spot but a lot of things fell into place for Carolina in the regular season last year. Very strong club but drop off expected and now playing in tougher division after moving to the Central for last season only. Columbus Blue Jackets – 70 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 70s this season. This team is better than it has shown on the ice and I feel strongly that the underachieving stops this season but also playing in a tougher division this season and points will be tough to come by. New Jersey Devils – 66 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 80s this season. This team should be much improved because I liked what I saw from this team as the season went on. The late season Devils were much better than the early season Devils and they’ll carry momentum here and be an improved team this season. New York Islanders – 104 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. Just need a little more offense as this team relies so heavily on Mathew Barzal in that regard. But great defense and solid goaltending make this one of toughest teams in division. New York Rangers – 88 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 80s to low 90s this season. Lafreniere is the key in his 2nd season as the Rangers improvement will go hand in hand with his improvement. Solid club but just not quite there yet and this division so tough. Philadelphia Flyers – 85 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 80s to low 90s this season. Carter Hart’s inconsistency in goal is a big concern with this club and they did have a 2nd season slump with their head coach after so  much success in his first season. Quality club but still missing something here unless Hart has a phenomenal season. Pittsburgh Penguins – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 90s this season. Likely to be a drop-off here. Still questions in goal. Lost some solid contributors off the roster in off-season. Also, dealing with some early season injury issues already to guys like Malkin and Crosby which is always concerning. Washington Capitals – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 90s this season. Getting Anthony Mantha was big for this club and they have the pieces in place to make another run at the cup one more time for Ovechkin. Trouble is there is so much competition in this division and Carolina back in it too after a season away in the Central Division. We’ll see some drop-off for Washington this season and note goalie Samsonov struggled as the season went on and this is also concerning. 

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NHL Atlantic Division Preview 2021-22

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Atlantic Division 2021-22 Point Total PredictionsWith last season being just 56 games, the first point total listed is the number of points the team earned in the standings last season but extrapolated over a normal 82 game season. Then the second total listed is my prediction range for this season. Boston Bruins – 107 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 90s to low 100s this season. Just such a consistent franchise for many seasons now. This team is built so well. Very strong top line many consider the best in the game but the 2nd line will be the key this season because David Krejci not coming back. That means Charlie Coyle will have to try to fill that spot. Buffalo Sabres – 54 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to uppers 60s this season. This will be Don Granato’s first full season as head coach of the Sabres. Should be improvement here as a result but how will they get over the Jack Eichel situation? Should see marked improvement this season but of course Buffalo still has a long way to go.  Detroit Red Wings – 70 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 60s to low 70s this season. The youth rebuild continues. The Red Wings are starting to make some positive steps after being patient with the youth rebuild. That continues this season and Detroit is still a year away from post-season contention but at least they are no longer a doormat for the rest of the league. Losing Jacob Vrana to shoulder surgery right before the season hurts this team. Florida Panthers – 116 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. The Panthers surprised with how strong of a season they had last year but their goalie situation is a concern as Sergei Bobrovsky can run hot and cold and that includes from season to season. This team has to drop down some this season in my opinion after overachieving a bit last season. Montreal Canadiens – 86 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 80s this season. Keep in mind the Canadian teams all played together in the North Division last year due to the pandemic. I think that helped some of the teams like the Habs who are now back in a division battling with the likes of Florida and Tampa Bay and Boston plus Toronto comes back to Atlantic from the North as well. That is why, though Canadiens still look solid for this season, I can not predict anything more than staying about level on with last season’s point production.Ottawa Senators – 75 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 70s this season. Like Montreal, now playing in a tougher division. Like Florida, goalie concerns with Matt Murray being the guy. Ottawa will have to battle hard just to have a season that is level on with last season’s production. Like Buffalo and Detroit, this is another team that will not threaten the playoffs this season but is trying to rebuild slowly. Tampa Bay Lightning – 110 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 100s this season. Lost some good players so could drop a little but it is the systems in place here that make this team so strong each and every season in recent years. Strong coaching and a lot of talent coming up through the minors, this team is build way to be strong each and every season and will battle Boston for the top spot in division in my opinion. Toronto Maple Leafs – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 90s to low 100s this season. Maple Leafs did benefit some from a North Division last season which they were a part of but now instead of beating up on Calgary and Vancouver they are back in Atlantic Division with the likes of Boston and Tampa Bay plus a Florida team off a big season. It is only natural to expect the Leafs to regress some as a result and plus their goaltending is a concern as they got more than was expected from that position last season. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 09/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and WNBA.The fourth week in the NFL kicks off with Cincinnati hosting Jacksonville on the NFL Network at 8:20 PM ET. The Bengals improved their record to 2-1 with their 24-10 upset victory at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Jaguars fell to 0-3 on the year with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog last week. Cincinnati is a 7-point favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The fifth week of the college football season begins with Miami (FL) playing at home against Virginia on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Hurricanes raised their record to 2-2 with a 69-0 victory against Central Connecticut State as a 46.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cavaliers got upset last Friday, 37-17, at home to Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 63. Twelve games are on the MLB docket. St. Louis plays at home against Milwaukee at 1:15 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. J.A. Happ pitches for the Cardinals against Brett Anderson of the Brewers. St. Louis is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels play at Texas at 2:05 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Angels pitch Alex Cobb against the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. Los Angeles is a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs are at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Justin Steele pitches for the Cubs against Miguel Yajure of the Pirates. Chicago is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 8.Boston plays at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Red Sox pitch Nick Pivetta against the Orioles’  Alexander Wells. Boston is a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Toronto is at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. Robbie Ray pitches for the Blue Jays against Corey Kluber of the Yankees. Toronto is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against Miami in the fourth game of their four-game series. The Mets pitch Rich Hill against the Marlins Edward Cabrera. New York is a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Houston plays at home against Tampa Bay in Game 3 of their three-game series. Lance McCullers pitches for the Astros against Collin McHugh of the Rays. Houston is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Atlanta hosts Philadelphia at 7:20 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. The Braves pitch Ian Anderson against the Phillies’ Kyle Gibson. Atlanta is a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota plays at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Joe Ryan pitches for the Twins against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Minnesota is a -195 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Cleveland plays at Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Indians pitch Shane Bieber against the Royals’ Angel Zerpa. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. San Francisco plays at home against Arizona at 9:45 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Scott Kazmir pitches for the Giants against Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks. San Francisco is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Diego at 10:10 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Dodgers pitch Tony Gonsolin against the Padres’ Vincent Velasquez. Los Angeles is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The semifinals continue in the WNBA on ESPN2 in the second games in both series. Connecticut plays at home against Chicago at 8 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at William Hill with a total of 156. Las Vegas hosts Phoenix at 10 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 170.

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NFL Review: 5 Undefeated Teams

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

NFL REVIEW: FIVE 3-0 TEAMS Five teams have made it to 3-0 in the NFL and only one of those teams were among the top dozen or so favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started. There is good reason to be skeptical of all five of those teams and being 3-0 this season is not quite as valuable as in past seasons with the move to a 17-game schedule. This is a breakdown of the chances to remain on a playoff path in the 2021-22 NFL season for the five 3-0 teams through Week 3.  3-0 DENVER BRONCOS (76-26 scoring) The Broncos are tied with the Bills for the top scoring differential in the NFL and with just 26 points allowed no defense has had a better start through three weeks. Denver had quite a buzz in the off-season as one of the few logical fits for Aaron Rodgers as the discussion of his possible departure from Green Bay was a common focus in the NFL media for several months. Once Rodgers reunited with the Packers, Denver was mostly a forgotten squad in a difficult AFC West with several high-profile teams.  Many did peg Denver for the playoffs however and a big factor in that logic was a rather favorable schedule which the Broncos have made good use of so far. The three wins for Denver have come against a trio of 0-3 teams and arguably the three worst teams in the NFL right now. Two of Denver’s opponents have featured rookie quarterbacks, but Denver has had convincing results in all three games while picking up two road wins as plenty of teams do not take care of business in favorable opportunities.  Teddy Bridgewater was picked up in the off-season after an uneven and mostly mediocre season for the Panthers in 2020 and he won the job over Drew Lock in August. Bridgewater has played exceptionally well through three weeks, featuring a top five QB Rating and QBR and still without an interception. He has taken seven sacks but has terrific numbers against the blitz and is averaging over 275 yards per game as he hasn’t simply been a game manager. Known for his accuracy, Bridgewater has completed nearly 77 percent of his passes and the Broncos have had adequate balance in the running game as well.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Denver has been favored in all three games as they have not done anything noteworthy yet and the schedule in October is very difficult as four of five foes made the playoffs last season while the other is their fellow 3-0 division leader Las Vegas.  The Broncos have six difficult AFC West games remaining while also drawing all four teams in a deep AFC North. Denver does have enough winnable games remaining on the schedule for this team to stay in the playoff race all season, but this squad has been hit hard with injuries of late. KJ Hamler joined Jerry Jeudy on injured reserve last week to take two receivers out of the equation while the offensive line and linebacker group also has been thinned out. Denver should not be dismissed completely due to the early schedule, but this is not a team that should be confused for a serious AFC championship contender.  3-0 CAROLINA PANTHERS (69-30 scoring) The Panthers may be the biggest surprise to be 3-0 as this was a 5-win team last season now in the second season under Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold’s NFL track record was about the worst of any regular starter in recent years. Darnold is producing in the passing game and has only one interception so far as the Panthers have won even with limited production on the ground. Christian McCaffrey has 201 rushing yards but left the Week 3 win over Houston and will be out for several weeks for a Panthers team that is gaining just 3.4 yards per rush.  In wins over New York and Houston the Panthers faced rookie quarterbacks including facing Davis Mills on a short week Thursday night game, meaning that two of three wins have been in the first NFL start for a pair of rookie quarterbacks. The win over New Orleans deserves praise however as it was a dominant defensive performance. It was perhaps a poor scheduling spot for the Saints, but the Panthers have been very impressive defensively through three weeks, leading the NFL in yards per play allowed while second in scoring defense.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Carolina’s schedule should remain rather favorable in the coming weeks. They will face three NFC East teams in October while also drawing Minnesota and Atlanta teams that have losing records this season after having losing records last season. Two games with Tampa Bay are not until late in the season as the Panthers have a good chance to produce a playoff caliber record this season. The final four weeks are a beast however with three of four games on the road playing at Buffalo, home vs. Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, and then at Tampa Bay. A collapse in the final month to lose out on a postseason spot might be the most likely scenario for this group depending on how important those late season games are for the expected contenders.  3-0 ARIZONA CARDINALS (103-65 scoring) Arizona has risen in stature significantly with a 3-0 start as the Week 1 performance against Tennessee was a dominant outing that may wind up as one of the more impressive game scores of the season. The Cardinals managed to survive the home opener against Minnesota as the Vikings missed a 37-yard-field goal at the end, while the team took care of business in Week 3 vs. Jacksonville. Arizona is tied with Tampa Bay for the most points scored in the NFL through three weeks and Kyler Murray is now the betting favorite for MVP.  The Cardinals were 8-8 last season as it is not a surprise that this team is already in the NFC mix as the off-season brought the team a few notable additions. Murray has already thrown for over 1,000 yards but he does have four interceptions and is not close to last season’s rushing pace with only 70 yards so far, although he has rushed for three touchdowns already. Arizona does have an excellent group of wide receivers and star players on both sides of the ball as this is a team that can stay in the spotlight. Arizona allowed 7.0 yards per play vs. Minnesota and last week the Cardinals allowed 361 yards against Jacksonville while falling behind 19-10 late in the third quarter vs. the winless Jaguars. A pick-six late in the fourth quarter helped keep Arizona in the win column in a game they were +3 in turnovers in, as this group hasn’t looked like a serious NFC contender outside of the opening week.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Tennessee and Minnesota could wind up as quality wins for Arizona as the team deserves a great deal of credit, but it is hard to envision this team staying undefeated much longer. Difficult division games are up the next two weeks while games with Cleveland and Green Bay also lurk in October as this group is much more likely to be 4-4 by the end of the month than 8-0. Playoff hopes will hinge on winning games in the very difficult NFC West as the Cardinals might still wind up right near the cut, just like last season. 3-0 LOS ANGELES RAMS (95-62 scoring)  The Rams are the one team in this quintet that most expected to have a good chance to be 3-0 as one of the highest regarded teams in the NFC. The Rams are 3-0 through a difficult schedule facing three 2020 playoff teams including last week’s big win over Tampa Bay for the current notion of NFC supremacy. The opening week win over the Bears may not be that valuable while the Colts are 0-3 as those two teams could be headed for seasons of decline. The Bears moved the ball fairly well against the Rams while the Colts were in a position to win vs the Rams even while having to play a backup quarterback at the end of the game.  Overall there is a lot to like about the pairing of Matthew Stafford with the Rams so far as he has nine touchdowns and one interception and the top QBR in the league at this point. The Rams have allowed just over 20 points per game this season but the defense did allow a great deal of yardage last week and has rather average defensive numbers overall, even with Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz accounting for two thirds of the statistics. Last season’s elite defensive numbers were likely a bit overstated with a few scheduling breaks as this squad risks being overvalued.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: The Rams don’t look likely to go anywhere as a top NFC threat as while they could certainly take a loss in division games the next two weeks facing Arizona and Seattle, they also have upcoming games with the Giants, Lions, and Texans. The late season schedule is quite difficult however as this is a group that might hit the Week 11 bye week at around 8-2 but then could take several losses in the final seven. That closing stretch includes three division games plus games on the road vs. Green Bay and Baltimore in potential late-season conditions for the southern California squad. Things look good so far for the Rams, but this team should not be the favorite for the #1 seed in the NFC just yet.  3-0 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (scoring 90-72) The Raiders have had a lot go right to reach 3-0 as both home wins have required overtime. It has been a quality schedule however beating Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, three winning teams in the AFC from last season and expected AFC playoff threats. Pittsburgh may be in a great decline however and Miami played with a backup quarterback as there are some potential reasons for caution with the start for Las Vegas.  The Raiders have continued to win with Josh Jacobs injured however and Derek Carr has the most passing yards in the NFL by a significant margin. While the Raiders have allowed decent scoring, they are actually a top 10 team in yards per play allowed and the suspect offensive line has played better than expected so far. Las Vegas is not allowing many big plays in the passing game and while the run defense has been poor on a per carry basis, the Raiders have pushed the scoring pace in most games to make the running game less important.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: The 3-0 start is certainly unexpected for the Raiders as it came through what looked like a rather difficult stretch of the schedule. The path before a Week 8 bye week to close October is reasonable as the Raiders should pick up a few more wins and ultimately the schedule is well-balanced as Las Vegas rarely has consecutive games against top teams outside of facing the Chiefs and Browns in back-to-back road games in December. The Raiders have likely boosted their season projection the most of these five 3-0 teams and Las Vegas should now be considered a very realistic playoff threat in the AFC even in a loaded AFC West.  3-0 teams have done quite well in Game #4 in the NFL historically, going 116-80 S/U and 101-90-5 ATS since 1980. Last season seven teams reached 3-0 and six of those teams made it to 4-0, going 6-1 S/U and 6-1 ATS in the fourth games. 3-0 teams fare best at home with an over 62 percent ATS rate historically though that edge has lessened since 2000. When 3-0 teams face 3-0 teams, the host has gone 12-4 S/U and 13-3 ATS since 1986 as the Rams may have a favorable opportunity this week to reach 4-0. 

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Ness Notes: CFB's 'October Morn'

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

OK, so Neil "Sweet Caroline" Diamond sang September Morn but it's MY column and I get to claim "literary license!" The AP poll (established in 1936) released its preseason poll on August 16 (AP began its preseason rankings in 1950) and naturally, Alabama was No. 1. Who could have guessed. Nick Saban has won SIX national championships over the last 12 seasons, including in 2020 when The Tide crushed Ohio State, 54-24. Alabama's No. 1 ranking was its EIGHTH preseason No. 1 all-time, tying Ohio St. However, both schools trail Oklahoma's 10 preseason No. 1 rankings. Just 11 schools in AP history have opened No. 1 and ended No. 1, the most recent being Alabama in 2017. Only TWO schools have gone through a season as the AP's No. 1 team wire-to-wire, Florida State in 1999 (rest in peace Bobby Bowdon) and USC in 2004 (Pete "I know nothing about violations" Carroll). More on Alabama. Alabama has opened 4-0 and has now won 18 straight games, the longest active winning streak. With its No. 1 ranking on September 26th, the Crimson Tide have now been ranked in 218 consecutive weekly AP polls, a streak that began back in 2008. However, the Alabama streak is only the second-longest streak in history, as Nebraska was ranked in a hard-to-believe 348 consecutive weekly AP polls from 1981-2002. Yes, the pollsters got it right with Alabama so far (Ole Miss may have something to say about that this Saturday) but things have NOT gone as planned for more than just a few preseason top-25 teams. Actually, that's a HUGE understatement.The Tide's dominance contrasts with the struggles of other ranked teams, as 25 have lost already this season, the most through four weeks in the AP poll era (since 1936). In fact, 12 teams that began the season in the top-25 are no longer ranked as October opens. Here's a list of preseason top-25 teams that were "nowhere to be found" in the most recent AP top-25 (as of Sep 26).Read 'em and Weep.No. 7 Iowa St, No. 10 North Carolina, No. 12 Wisconsin, 14 Miami-Fl, No. 15 USC, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Washington, No. 21 Texas, No. 23 ULL, No. 24 Utah and No. 25 Arizona St. Clemson, the only team to appear in each of the last six CFP, has fallen from No. 3 (preseason ranking) to No. 25, barely extending its streak of 107 consecutive weeks as a ranked team. The Tigers own the second-longest active streak (behind Alabama), although the Ohio State Buckeyes have been ranked in 150 consecutive weekly polls, if one doesn't count the polls last season in which Ohio State wasn't eligible. Remember, the Big Ten originally said it was going to cancel its 2020 season (due to COVID) before changing its mind in late October. Let's give Ohio St a Roger Maris asterisk.However, when Clemson fell from No. 9 to No. 25 after its loss this past Saturday at NC State, the Tigers run of 97 weeks inside the top-10 was snapped. Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 team but while the Sooners are 4-0 (12 straight wins going back to 2020), Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS against its three FBS opponents, Oklahoma eked out a 40-35 win over Tulane, a 23-16 win over Nebraska (on the 50th anniversary of The Game if the Century from 1971) and just this past Saturday, beat West Va 16-13 with a game-winning FG on the game's final play, Really, Oklahoma is ranked 6th???This weekend's schedule features four matchups between ranked opponents. No. 1 Alabama is home to No. 12 Ole Miss, No. 2 Georgia is home to No. 8 Arkansas, No. 7 Cincinnati is at No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 19 Oklahoma St is home to No. 21 Baylor. The remaining 17, top-25 teams are all in action, playing unranked opponents. I'm assuming if you are reading this, you may just be interested in some ATS numbers. There have been 12 matchups between ranked opponents so far, with the higher ranked team not faring well by going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS. Will the higher ranked teams improve on their records as the season goes on? I guess we'll have to wait and see. Here's something that may surprise some but NOT regular readers of Ness Notes. Ranked opponents are 59-13 (.819) SU when playing an unranked opponent but are a MONEY-BURNING 26-43-3 (37.7%) ATS. Quoting Matt Damon from Good Will Hunting. "Do you like apples? I got her number. How do you like them apples?" Ranked teams have a L-O-N-G way to get back to the infamous 'Mendoza Line.' Check back next Wednesday for my recap of the NFL's first four weeksGood luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 09/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the MLB and the UEFA Champions League.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Colorado hosts Washington at 3:10 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. The Rockies pitch Paul Lambert against the Nationals’ Paul Espino. Colorado is a -115 money line favorite with the total set at 12. Pittsburgh plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 6:35 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Roansy Contreras pitches for the Pirates against Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Pittsburgh is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston plays at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the Orioles’ Zac Lowther. Boston is a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The New York Yankees are at Toronto on ESPN at 7:07 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Jose Berrios of the Twins. New York is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets host Miami at 7:10 PM ET in the third game of their four-game series. The Mets pitch Taijuan Walker against the Marlins’ Elieser Hernandez. New York is a -170 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta plays at home against Philadelphia at 7:20 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Max Fried pitches for the Braves against the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. Atlanta is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Minnesota is at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Twins pitch Michael Pineda against the Tigers’ Casey Mize. Minnesota is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. St. Louis hosts Milwaukee at 7:45 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Miles Mikolas pitches for the Cardinals against Adrian Houser of the Brewers. St. Louis is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Texas plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 8:05 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Rangers pitch Taylor Hearn against the Angels’ Janson Junk. Texas is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. Three games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Houston hosts Tampa Bay in the second game of their three-game series. Luis Garcia pitches for the Astros against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen. Houston is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox plays at home against Cincinnati in the final game of their two-game series. The White Sox pitch Carlos Rodon against the Reds’ Sonny Gray. Chicago is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. Cleveland plays at Kansas City in the second game of their three-game series. Zac Plesac pitches for the Indians against Daniel Lynch of the Royals. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. San Francisco plays at home against Arizona at 9:45 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Giants pitch Alex Wood against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. San Francisco is a -280 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games begin at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Diego on ESPN in Game 2 of their three-game series. Max Scherzer pitches for the Dodgers against Ryan Weathers of the Padres. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland plays at Seattle in the second game of their three-game series. The A’s pitch Frankie Montas against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. Oakland is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Matchday 2 in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Atalanta hosts the Young Boys as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.25. Zenit Petersburg plays at home against Malmo as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Six matches begin at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich is at home against Dynamo Kyiv as a -2.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 4. Barcelona plays at Benfica in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.75. Manchester United hosts Villarreal as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Sevilla travels to Wolfsburg in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.25. Salzburg is at home against Lille as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Chelsea travels to Juventus as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.25. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games.

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