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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 04, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.Week 14 in the college football season concludes with nine games. Two games kickoff the NCAAF card at noon ET. Oklahoma State plays Baylor on ABC in the Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Cowboys are a 6-point favorite with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Kent State faces Northern Illinois on ESPN in the Mid-American Conference championship game at Ford Field in Detroit. The Golden Flashes are a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 74.5.San Diego State hosts Utah State on Fox at 3 PM ET in their temporary home in Carson, California in the Mountain Western Conference championship game. The Aztecs are a 6-point favorite with a total of 49.5. Appalachian State plays at Louisiana-Lafayette on ESPN at 3:30 PM ET in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Mountaineers are a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 52. Georgia plays Alabama in the SEC championship game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on CBS at 4 PM ET. The Bulldogs are a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 48.5. Cincinnati plays at home against Houston on ABC at 4 PM ET in the American Athletic Conference championship game. The Bearcats are a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53.Two more NCAAF conference championship games start at 8 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays Wake Forest in the ACC championship game at Bank on America Stadium in Charlotte on ABC. The Panthers are a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 71. Michigan plays Iowa at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in the Big Ten championship game. The Wolverines are an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. California is at home against USC on FS1 at 11 PM ET in a make-up game from a postponed regular season contest. The Golden Bears are a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Seven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. New York is at home against Denver at 1:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 212. Two games tip-off at 8:10 PM ET. Brooklyn hosts Chicago as a 3-point favorite with a total of 220. Milwaukee is at home against Miami as a 5.5-point favorite at BetRivers with an over/under of 216. Two more games in the NBA start at 8:40 PM ET. Dallas plays at home against Memphis as a 5-point favorite with a total of 215. Golden State hosts San Antonio as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 219. Two games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Boston visits Portland as a 1-point road favorite at BetRivers with a total of 217 at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Clippers play at Sacramento as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 215. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Florida is at home against St. Louis as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 6. Six games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. Washington plays at home against Columbus as a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Nashville hosts Montreal as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Toronto plays at Minnesota as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Boston hosts Tampa Bay as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Colorado travels to Ottawa as a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders visit Detroit as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 5. Carolina plays at home against Buffalo at 7:38 PM ET as a -300 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers are at home against Chicago at 8:08 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh plays at Vancouver as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Sixteen games are on national television in college basketball. Four games tip-off the card at noon ET. Villanova plays at home against Saint Joseph’s on FS1 as a 22.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Memphis travels to Mississippi on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Seton Hall hosts Nyack College on FS2. Milwaukee is at home against Robert Morris on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 138.6. Wisconsin plays at home against Marquette on Fox at 12:30 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Michigan hosts San Diego State on CBS at 1 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 126.5. Four games begin at 2 PM ET. Tennessee travels to Colorado on FS1 as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 137. Auburn plays at home against Yale on ESPNU as a 15-point favorite with a total of 149. Providence is at home against Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Louisville is at Michigan State on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 138.5. Four more games in college basketball start at 4 PM ET. BYU visits Missouri State on the CBS Sports Network as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 140. Connecticut is at home against Grambling on FS2 as a 26-point favorite at William Hill with a total of 137. Loyola-Chicago travels to DePaul on FS1 as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 143. Temple is at home against Pennsylvania on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 135. Gonzaga hosts Alabama on ESPN2 at 8 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 160.5. Creighton plays at home against Iowa State on FS1 as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 138.5.Matchweek 25 in the English Premier League begins with five matches. Chelsea visits West Ham United on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -0.5 road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Three matches begin at 10 AM ET. Newcastle United plays at home against Burnley on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion travel to Southampton on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool plays at Wolverhampton on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Manchester City is at Watford on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -2 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 03, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and NCAAF.Week 14 in the college football season has two conference championship games. Western Kentucky visits the University of Texas-San Antonio on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET in the Conference USA championship game. The Hilltoppers won their seventh straight game with a 53-21 victory at Marshall as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. The Roadrunners lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite last week. Western Kentucky is a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 72.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).  Utah plays Oregon on ABC at 8 PM ET in the Pac-12 championship game on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip in Paradise, Nevada. The Utes won their fifth straight game with a 28-13 victory against Colorado as a 24-point favorite on Friday. The Ducks defeated Oregon State, 38-29, as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Utah is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5. Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Indiana hosts Miami as a 5.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Washington plays at home against Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 208. Two more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Atlanta is at home against Philadelphia on ESPN as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 213.5. Brooklyn hosts Minnesota as an 8-point favorite at BetRivers. Houston plays at home against Orlando at 8:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Dallas is at home against New Orleans at 8:40 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 218. Utah hosts Boston at 9:10 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. Golden State plays at home against Phoenix on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 216. The Los Angeles Clippers are the technical road team against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2-point favorite with a total of 214.5.The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The New York Rangers are at home against San Jose at 7:08 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg hosts New Jersey at 8:08 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Vegas travels to Arizona at 9:35 PM ET as a -220 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games complete the NHL card at 10:08 PM ET. Calgary visits Anaheim as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Edmonton plays at Seattle as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games are on national television in college basketball at 7 PM ET. Kansas is at St. John’s on FS1 as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 157. Illinois hosts Rutgers on ESPN2 as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 133.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NCAAB, NHL, and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 02, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.Week 13 in the National Football League kicks off with Dallas visiting New Orleans on Fox and the NFL Network at 8:20 PM ET. The Cowboys lost their third game in their last four with a 36-33 upset loss at home to Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite on Thanksgiving. They fell to 7-4 with the setback. The Saints lost their third straight game with a 31-6 loss at home to Buffalo as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. New Orleans has fallen to 5-6 after this losing streak. Dallas is a 4.5-point road favorite with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:40 PM ET. Chicago travels to New York as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 214. Milwaukee plays at Toronto as a 4-point road favorite. Memphis is at home against Oklahoma City at 8:10 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 215. Phoenix plays at home against Detroit at 9:10 PM ET as a 13-point favorite. Portland is at home against San Antonio at 10:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Five games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. Colorado visits Montreal as a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Tampa Bay hosts St. Louis as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida plays at home against Buffalo as a -300 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Washington is at home against Chicago as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina hosts Ottawa as a -300 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against St. Louis at 7:38 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games start at 8:08 PM ET. Boston travels to Nashville as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Minnesota plays at home against New Jersey as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 6. Dallas hosts Columbus at 8:38 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary visits Los Angeles to play the Kings as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games are on national television on college basketball at 9 PM ET. Utah State plays at home against Saint Mary’s on the CBS Sports Network as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Drake hosts Valparaiso on ESPNU as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches on Peacock. Tottenham plays at home against Brentford at 2:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United is at home against Arsenal as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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NFL Week 13 Breakdown

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Dec 01, 2021

BEST GAME – New England at Buffalo (-3)New England 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATSBuffalo 7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATSAfter a year of calm, petrified townsfolk are seeing lights on again in Dracula’s castle. The Patriots head to western New York having taken over first place in an AFC East that they have owned for most of the past two decades. Can Buffalo, which has a top 5 offense and the best defense in the NFL, derail a Patriot train that has won all five of its road games? The Bills seem trapped in win-one, lose-one mode, but they have a little momentum of their own after a solid T-Day win over New Orleans. This could be the biggest – and most interesting – AFC East game since NE started dominating at the turn of the century. Bills opened as a -3.5 favorite, but the half-point was dropped soon after the Patriots’ dominating victory over Tennessee. If you never bet on a streak to end, consider that the Pats have six straight wins and six straight covers.WORST GAME – Philadelphia at New York Jets (+7)Philadelphia 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATSNew York 3-8 SU, 3-8 ATSSecond straight game in New Jersey for the Eagles, who are probably one loss away from playing out the string. Philly will spend this week trying to fix whatever is wrong with Jalen Hurts, who tossed three interceptions this past Sunday in a devastating loss to the Giants. They hope he’ll find the spark against the woeful Jets, who have been as godawful SU (3-8) as they have been ATS (also 3-8) this season. The rest of the year will be devoted to the development of rookie QB Zach Wilson. Bettors will be keeping an eye on the 7-point spread to see if it moves a half-point either way.LARGEST POINT SPREAD – Jacksonville at Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)Jacksonville 2-9 SU, 4-7 ATSLos Angeles 7-4 SU, 4-7 ATSThree straight defeats have sobered up Rams fans in a hurry, and the last thing they need at this point is an upset loss to the Jaguars heading into their showdown with NFC West-leading Arizona on Dec. 13. The Rams offense completely collapsed in the third period of this past Sunday’s game at Green Bay, and LA needs to just keep things simple and avoid mistakes against the nothing-to-lose Jaguars. Despite the heavy line, early bettors are all over the Rams.SMALLEST POINT SPREAD – Washington at Las Vegas (-2.5)Washington 4-6 SU, 3-7 ATSLas Vegas 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATSBeating the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving has breathed life into the Raiders, who went into the game with consecutive losses to the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. A loss wouldn’t terminate LV’s playoff chances in a tight AFC, but it would probably force them to win four of their last five (including road games at Kansas City, Cleveland and Indianapolis) to earn the right to play into mid-January.  Washington deserves some credit for not laying down after a 2-6 start.LARGEST TOTAL – Tampa Bay at Atlanta (50.5)Tampa Bay 8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS, 6-5 O/UAtlanta 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/UThe Buccaneers have scored 30 or more in six games this season, and assuming they can keep Tom Brady upright this coming Sunday, the odds are decent that they’ll go 30+ again. The real question here is whether Atlanta’s offense has recovered from a Week 10/11 stretch in which it put up a grand total of three points in eight quarters. The Falcons did find the end zone three times this past Sunday against the Jaguars, so there’s that.SMALLEST TOTAL – New York Giants at Miami (42)New York 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-7-1 O/UMiami 5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS, 5-7 O/UA four-game winning streak may not have salvaged their season, but the Dolphins have to like their offense after a solid win over Carolina. The Miami defense did score once (blocked punt return), but Tua Tagovailoa at least temporarily tamped down the DeSean Watson-to-South Beach talk with a decent effort – 27 of 31 passing. No such luck in the Meadowlands, where the Giants struggle to score almost every week.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 01, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Indiana hosts Atlanta as a 1-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Denver visits Orlando as an 8-point road favorite. Washington plays at home against Minnesota as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 215.5. Two more games start at 7:40 PM ET. Boston is at home against Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite. Miami hosts Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at home against Charlotte as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 229. Dallas travels to New Orleans as a 4-point road favorite. Oklahoma City is at home against Houston as a 3-point favorite with a total of 213. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Sacramento at 10:40 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The New York Rangers are at home against Philadelphia at 7:08 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The puck drops at 7:38 PM ET for three games. Toronto hosts Colorado as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vancouver visits Ottawa as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Detroit plays at home against Seattle as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6.Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:08 PM ET. Vegas travels to Anaheim as a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Edmonton is at home against Pittsburgh on TNT as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Nine games are on national television in college basketball. Xavier hosts Central Michigan on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 25.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143. Seton Hall plays at home against Wagner on FS2 at 7 PM ET as a 15-point favorite at William Hill with a total of 135.5. Three games in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge tip-off at 7:15 PM ET. Michigan State is at home against Louisville on ESPN as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. North Carolina State hosts Nebraska on ESPNU as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 147. Maryland plays at home against Virginia Tech on ESPN2 as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 132. Texas Tech travels to Providence on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5. Three more games in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge start at 9:15 PM ET. Wisconsin plays at Georgia Tech on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Michigan visits North Carolina on ESPN as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 148.5. Penn State hosts Miami (FL) on ESPNU as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Four games begin at 2:30 PM ET on Peacock. Leicester City visits Southampton in a pick ‘em matchup at Play MGM with a total of 2.5. Chelsea travels to Watford as a -1.5 goal line road favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 2.5. West Ham United is at home against Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.5 goal line favorite at Play MGM with a total of 2.5. Wolverhampton plays at home against Burnley as a -0.5 goal line favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 2.5. Two more EPL games begin at 3:15 PM ET. Manchester City travels to Aston Villa on Peacock as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Liverpool plays at Everton on the NBC Sports Network as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3. 

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The Buffalo Bills' November Paradigm Shift on Offense

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score to begin the month of November, the Bills made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Breida in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. Breida ran the ball only three times but it was the first time he got touched the football since September 12th. His 28 yards on those three carries earned him more playing time.The game script the following week kept the Bills from continuing their ambition to run the football more. They fell behind Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter before going into halftime trailing by a 24-7 score. Perhaps an early score to pull within 10 points could have allowed head coach Sean McDermott to get back to running the football to open up the ancillary benefits to that tactic. But the Colts scored 14 points in the third quarter to take an insurmountable lead that could only be overcome by scoring quickly in the passing game. In the end, the Bills ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Breida’s contributions were encouraging moving forward as he gained 51 rushing yards on five carries.Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. I expected this formula for success to be what McDermott strived for in their bounce-back game in New Orleans against the Saints. Sure enough, the Bills ran the ball 32 times for 113 yards in a 31-6 victory against the Saints. Allen was only asked to throw the ball 28 times. He completed 23 of these passes. Breida ran the ball nine times for 26 yards. Interestingly, McDermott opted to have Zack Moss placed as a healthy scratch in that game leaving the primary rushing duties to Breida and David Montgomery. Buffalo held New Orleans to only 190 yards. The Jets gained 366 yards in the first game after McDermott had Daboll redesign the offense, but much of that was in garbage time. The Colts game got away from the Bills early, but expect McDermott to continue having Allen play under center with a renewed commitment to relying on their running backs as their primary ball carriers. Asking Allen to do less may be the most beneficial aspect of this change of tactics. Allen has rushed the ball 69 times for 382 yards this season. He only had two rushing attempts in the games against the Jets and Colts respectively before running the ball ten times in New Orleans. But running backs (or wide receivers in specialty plays) ran the ball 20 and 24 times in those games. McDermott will still want Allen to take advantage of his legs -- especially when the team needs a big play. But expect the running backs to take a higher load of the rushing attempts moving forward.Best of luck — Frank.  

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Joussiance and the Stagnation of Sean McVay

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

Jouissance is defined as a physical or intellectual delight, pleasure, or ecstasy. I first stumbled upon the concept in film school when the discussion of the dream state that the viewing experience inside a movie theater ventured into the work of French psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan. For Lacan, his use of the term had a sublimated sexual component in its expression in a subject. Lacan who I began to think about when watching Sean McVay embark on his 50-yard dash to celebrate Matthew Stafford’s successful long pass to DeSean Jackson during their prime-time victory against Tampa Bay earlier in the season. The dopamine was definitely triggering with the successful execution of that play. Big plays will do that. But I still found McVay’s (over)reaction surprising. We don’t see Andy Reid break out into a full sprint whenever Patrick Mahomes connects a deep ball with Tyreek Hill. Perhaps McVay was trying to offer support for a disgruntled Jackson unhappy in not being involved enough in the offense. If so, McVay’s player-management skills failed to please Jackson who asked for his release soon after. Los Angeles may be tied with the Dallas Cowboys to lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record was that triumph against Buccaneers. After their 36-28 loss at Green Bay as a small favorite on Sunday (our NFL Game of the Month, by the way), the Rams have lost three games in a row. I argued in my defense of taking the Packers that I thought “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In general, I think McVay is a fine young coach. I cringe when the “offensive genius” moniker seems to be a mandatory modifier to his name. I find the hiring trends involving anyone who once sat at the lunch table with him to be desperate. And I appreciate McVay when he admitted he prepared his team incorrectly in the Super Bowl loss to New England when his offense managed only three points. But I was very disappointed to see McVay throw Jared Goff under the bus after the blockbuster trade with Detroit to acquire Stafford. McVay never mentioned Goff by name. However, when a teenage boy breaks up with his girlfriend to start dating something new and then raves about how good a dancer she is and how nice her breath smells, the implication is obvious: the previous GF had no moves and pretty much stunk.In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 68 yards against Green Bay after managing only 52 rushing yards against the 49ers in their upset loss to San Francisco two weeks ago. I worry that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long-ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the franchise where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him? Or maybe, just maybe, Beckham is part of the problem? Granted, they need Beckham now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. The Rams have lost three straight games despite being favored in all three games (the losing streak started with their loss to Tennessee on Sunday Night Football). Stafford five interceptions in those three games after throwing only four interceptions in his first eight starts with his new team. Even more concerning, Stafford has thrown a pick-six in each of these three games. He has also been sacked nine times in these three games. That is a problem that I think speaks more to play-calling than it does the quality of the offensive line or Stafford’s elusiveness in the pocket. McVay seems to have discovered the lost tapes from the Mike Martz offense. Jay Cutler got sacked a lot in that offense waiting for receivers to run 40 yards downfield. McVay’s effusive early praise of Stafford comes across as if his “brilliance” can finally be unleashed by running a Martz-inspired attack. I would like to see Stafford operate the play-action offense that Goff operated under. I do think Stafford was an upgrade to Goff but he needs a coach, not a cheerleader.Maybe Goff’s lack of preparation at times last season warranted McVay’s frustration with him. Perhaps the divorce was in the best interest of both parties? But McVay and the Rams were coming off a bye week on Sunday in their showdown against the Packers — and they got owned. The “offensive genius” seems stagnant. There are other quarterbacks and offensive head coaches who would face holy hell after three straight games with pick-sixes in what were all upset losses.Perhaps the offensive genius should take another lesson from Bill Belichick who has demonstrated from Tom Brady to now Mac Jones: be happy with what the defense offers (and the receiver will break out with a nice yards-after-catch one out of three times!). Interestingly, being enamored with the long ball was a challenge Patrick Mahomes faced earlier in the season. Or perhaps McVay should bypass his mid-game dopamine hits to instead take the advice from Joe Burrow who made these comments after Cincinnati’s blowout win against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Burrow commented on his renewed focus: “Just take care of the ball better. Eliminate some turnovers. We kind of fell in love with the big play, speaking of myself. The last two games, I’ve really just taken what the defenses have given me and stat lines aren’t dotty or impressive but it’s getting the job done. That’s all I care about is W’s, and whatever it takes to get the job done.”Best of luck — Frank.

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Is Justin Herbert in a Sophomore Slump?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season by winning four of their first five games. Justin Herbert picked up right where he left off after his spectacular rookie season in leading the team to this hot start. In those five games, he averaged 315.2 passing yards per game. He threw 13 touchdown passes to just three interceptions in those games with three games where he tossed at least three TDs. His 139 completions in 207 pass attempts were good for a 67.1% completion percentage. He completed at least 60.5% of his passes in all five starts.Yet Herbert has since taken a step back as the Chargers have lost four of their last six games. It all started in Baltimore on October 10th in a 34-6 loss to the Ravens. Herbert completed just 22 of 39 passes for 195 yards for a 56.4% completion rate in the loss. He only threw one touchdown pass and added an interception.Los Angeles returned home the next week to lose to New England, 27-24. Herbert completed just 18 of 35 passes for 223 yards and a 51.4% completion rate. He did throw two touchdown passes but he had two passes picked off as well. Herbert rebounded by completing 33 of 38 passes for 356 yards in a 27-24 victory at Philadelphia. He had two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory. After getting sacked five times in the previous two weeks, he was not sacked by the Eagles. Perhaps Herbert’s success can be attributed to facing a Philadelphia defense coached by defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Coming over from Indianapolis where he was an assistant coach along with the Eagles’ rookie head coach Nick Sirianni, the zone coverage that the Colts and Eagles play was not difficult for Herbert to solve. New England’s Bill Belichick has a well-established reputation for making things difficult on young quarterbacks. Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh started as a defensive coach and has one of the best defensive coordinators in Wink Martindale who commits to pressuring the opposing quarterback. Herbert faced another well-respected defensive head coach the following week against Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings. In that 27-20 loss, he completed only 20 of 34 passes for 195 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His 58.8% completion percentage in that game was the third time in a four-game stretch when he did not complete at least 60% of his passes. Herbert played better against a Pittsburgh Steelers team missing T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick the following week. He completed 30 of 41 passes for 382 yards in the Chargers’ 41-37 victory. However, after having success against Mike Tomlin’s depleted defense, Herbert struggled last week in a 28-13 loss in Denver. He completed 28 of 44 passes for 303 yards against head coach Vic Fangio’s defense yet he threw two more interceptions in the setback. The downward trends are clear. In his last six starts, his completion percentage has dropped to 64.9% with Herbert averaging 276 passing yards per game. He has just 11 touchdown passes in those games along with seven interceptions. The numbers become even starker when removing the games against the Eagles and injured Steelers. Against Fangio, Zimmer, Belichick, and Harbaugh-coached teams, Herbert completed only 57.9% of his passes for 224 yards per game. He has only six touchdown passes against those four defensive coaches with five interceptions. Those four coaches saw their defenses sack Herbert ten times. Herbert had a historic rookie season where he completed 66.6% of his passes for 4336 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Perhaps being coached by a new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi and head coach Brandon Staley threw off his early opponents. Yet it appears that the better defensive coaches in the league have discovered some tendencies in the second-year quarterback. They call it a sophomore slump for a reason since it is not uncommon for rookies coming off breakout seasons to maintain that level of excellence. The competition catches up.Herbert appears to have the talent and work ethic to make adjustments. However, it may take him some time to figure out the best way to counter the defensive looks that Fangio, Zimmer, Belichick, and Harbaugh have used to frustrate him.Good luck - TDG.

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The Washington Football Team's Rushing Attack is Revitalizing their Defense

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The Washington Football Team has pulled off upset victories in three straight games after their 17-15 win against Seattle for Monday Night Football on the last Monday in November. After starting the season losing six of their first eight games, head coach Ron Rivera has this team in contention once again to win the NFC East against a faltering Dallas Cowboys team that has lost three of their last four games. At 5-6, the Football Team is two games behind the Cowboys in the division standings yet they still have both their games with their NFC East rivals on deck in December. Washington won the NFC East last season despite starting the year with a 1-5 record. The foundation for success for Rivera this season has been a renewed commitment to run the football coming off their bye week.The Football Team’s first game after the two weeks off and self-audit of their own tendencies when they hosted Tampa Bay. They shocked the defending Super Bowl champions three weeks ago with a 29-19 victory. The Football Team held Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense to just 273 yards. Washington was able to contain Brady by being on offense for over 39 minutes in that game. They ran the ball 34 times for 94 yards. Washington then upset Carolina on the road two weeks ago with a 27-21 win as a field goal underdog. They held the Panthers to only 297 yards with them being on offense for just over 24 minutes in that game. The Football Team’s offense was on the field for 35:53 minutes. They ran the ball 40 times for 190 yards. On Monday, the Football Team ran the ball 43 times for 152 yards. They controlled the clock on offense for 41:40 minutes after keeping Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the field for less than ten minutes in the first half. Seattle only gained 267 yards in the game. The success in the Washington ground game has come from the spectacular play of Antonio Gibson. The second-year running back has rushed the ball 72 times in the last three games for 270 yards. He has 81 touches in those three games when including catching the ball out of the backfield. He ran the ball 29 times for 111 yards against the Seahawks. Running the football to win the time of possession battle has helped to revitalize the Football Team’s defense that struggled early in the season. They allowed 424, 391, and 481 yards in their first three games of the year. The 432 yards per game those first three opponents averaged far eclipsed their 305 yards per game defensive average last year, the second-best mark in the league. Washington has held their last three opponents to 55 combined points, similar to the defensive run they went on last season when they held their last seven opponents to 20 points or less with a 15.0 points per game opponent average from week 11 to the end of the regular season. Their opponents during their winning streak have averaged only 279 yards per game with none gaining more than 297 yards. Being on offense for about 16 more minutes per game keeps the defense fresh while frustrating quarterbacks like Brady and Wilson. With this commitment to run the football and control the time of possession, Rivera may be poised to lead the Football Team to a second-straight playoff run despite a slow start to the season.Good luck - TDG.

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NCAA Top 25 Review: Overrated & Underrated

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

College Basketball is one of my favorite sports to handicap, so each month I plan on taking a look at who’s underrated and overrated in the Top 25:UnderratedHouston - The Cougars are currently 15th in the AP Top 25 and 14th in the Coaches Poll. I’ve got them in the top four of my power rankings and ESPN has them third in their BPI. This was a Final Four team last year, remember. The Cougars only loss was by two to Wisconsin in the Maui Invitational. They hold blowout victories over Oregon, Butler and Virginia, all by 18 points or greater. Per KenPom, UH is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. A team that should clearly be ranked higher. Arizona - The Wildcats are 6-0 and have risen to #11 in the poll. BPI is actually a bit lower, but my power ratings are very high on them, calling them one of the top teams in the entire country! Without question, Zona’s most impressive win came against Michigan, who was ranked #4 in the country at the time. The Wildcats won 80-62 (I had them) in Las Vegas, holding the Wolverines to 1 for 14 from three-point range. Their six wins have come by an average of 33.8 points/game. OverratedDuke - The Blue Devils just beat Gonzaga, which was just the second loss for the Zags in the last two years (the other being the National Championship Game). But I do not think Coach K’s team is really the best in the country. I’d say top six, but definitely not first. BPI is even less bullish, putting them at #11. Coming off the huge win over Gonzaga, it might be a good idea to fade Duke their next time out. They play Tuesday at Ohio State as part of the Big 10/ACC Challenge. Arkansas - The Razorbacks are considered Top 10 by both the AP and Coaches Polls. I’m not sure they are one of the Top 25 teams. BPI is also unconvinced. The Hogs are 6-0 SU, but have had a couple single digit victories thus far. The upcoming schedule is not all that challenging with games against Central Arkansas, Little Rock and Charlotte. But fading the Razorbacks (who will be big favorites) might be a good idea in those games. You can at least get an ATS win.Should Be InLSU - The Tigers are 7-0 SU. They are also 6-1 ATS. They are the team I played against with my *10* Game of the Month (for November) as I took the points in their matchup with Penn State. LSU needed OT to win that game and it’s the only time they didn’t cover. Still, I have much respect for this team, which belongs not just in the Top 25, but the Top 15. Iowa - Another team not currently in the Top 25, but they should be. The Hawkeyes moved to 7-0 with a 75-74 win at Virginia on Monday, part of the Big 10/ACC Challenge. There is a huge showdown looming with #2 Purdue this Friday. Win that game and the Hawkeyes are definitely going to be in the Top 25. As long as they aren’t blown out, they still deserve to be in (my view) as my power ratings say they are Top 20 team right now. 

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November Check-In: Europe's Big 4

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

It’s time for a monthly review of what’s been going on in Europe’s “Big 4” football (soccer) leagues and what might be on the horizon. Here, I’ll be looking at who’s in the top four of each league, who might be moving up/down and the battles to avoid relegation. Premier League (England)Chelsea (30 pts), Manchester City (29), Liverpool (28) & West Ham (23) are the top four here. Beyond them, no one else in the Premier League even has a positive goal differential! The top three have been dominant and it’s going to be one of those sides that wins the EPL. Chelsea has the most points right now (30), which is what matters, but Manchester City is ahead on expected points (xPts) and Liverpool has the best GD (+28). There is a big gap (-6.92) between the number of goals that Chelsea has allowed vs. what you’d expect them to have allowed. In fact, it’s the largest such gap in the league. However, my money is still on the Blues - the reigning Champions League holders - to win the Premier League title this seasonRemember that the top four teams in each domestic league qualify for next year’s Champions League. With the top three in the EPL being so dominant this year, the only question seems to be whether or not West Ham can hold on to the coveted fourth spot? West Ham’s YTD GD of +8 is not on par with the top three teams (all of who are +20 or better). But there’s not exactly a litany of obvious contenders who can overtake them. Arsenal is level on points, but the Gunners are 0-3 against the top three while being outscored 11-0. I actually think Crystal Palace is the side with the best shot of moving up. The Eagles are 5th in xPts and have been beaten only three times. But you have to wonder if a league-leading seven draws will come back to hurt them. As of now, I’d expect West Ham to hold onto fourth position, although the gap will widen between them and the top three.Down at the foot of the table, Norwich City and Newcastle are the locks for relegation. Newcastle has yet to even win a single match while Norwich has the worst GD (-20). As for who will be the third side condemned to relegation, I think the “best bets” would be either Burnley or Watford. Burnley only has one win while Watford is tied with Norwich for the most losses (8). La Liga (Spain)The top four here are currently: Real Madrid (33 pts), Atletico Madrid (29), Real Sociedad (29) and Sevilla (28). Important to note is that Sociedad, who I think is the shakiest of the four, has played one more match than the other three. The Spanish top flight is not as “top heavy” as it’s been in recent years, meaning none of these top four sides are locks to stay in their current position (well, maybe Real Madrid is). When looking at who could move up into the top four, I’d look past 5th place Real Betis and 6th place Rayo Vallecano and instead consider 7th place Barcelona or 8th place Athletic Bilbao. Barca was written off by many early on, but is actually second in the league in xPts. Bilbao, like Crystal Palace in the EPL, is hurt by being the “kings of the draw.” They’ve shared the points a league-high eight times. Still, I’d expect them to finish in the top six by season’s end. What’s interesting about La Liga this season is how all three of the newly promoted sides (particularly Rayo Vallecano) are performing better than expected and none are really a threat to be relegated. Poor Levante is currently in last place and winless, but they are actually 12th in xPts! Getafe and Granada are actually the bottom two in xPts, but Cadiz and Elche were last year’s bottom two (in xPts), suggesting that maybe it is they who deserve condemnation to the Segunda Division.Bundesliga (Germany)Going off goal differential and xPts, Bayern Munich is going to win this league for a 10th straight season. I said that last month and feel even more strongly about it now. I know Borussia Dortmund is only one point behind, but their GD is only +14 (compared to Bayern’s +29) and the gap in xPts is 11. Again, like I said last month, Dortmund is a lock to finish in the top four. But they will not overtake Bayern.Of the four leagues we’re discussing, the Bundesliga is the one where I think we could see the most change in the top four. Third place Bayer Leverkusen and fourth place Freiburg both seem a little shaky. In last month’s update, I mentioned how Freiburg was the Bundesliga’s only unbeaten side. Well, now they’ve dropped three straight fixtures. As for who could move into the top four, I’m still a believer in RB Leipzig, even though they’ve yet to win a single away match this season! Leverkusen is the only team still without an away loss, but that can’t possibly continue. Both Mainz and Hoffenheim are darkhorses as is Gladbach.No side in all of Europe is a bigger lock to be relegated than is the Bundesliga’s current last place team, Greuther Furth. They are not only still winless, but have lost 12 of 13 matches. Bet against them at will. Believe it or not, Arminia Bielefeld is actually lower on xPts than Greuther Furth, which is shocking. So those two are the obvious choices for automatic relegation. Whoever finishes third from the bottom has to play a relegation playoff against the third place team from the Bundesliga 2. Augsburg and Hertha Berlin seem like prime candidates for that spot.Serie A (Italy)The top four here are Napoli (35), AC Milan (32), Inter Milan (31) and Atlanta (31). Napoli is looking especially dominant this season with a 11-2-1 record and +23 GD. But Inter is actually higher on xPts. I think AC Milan is the shakiest of the top four, even though they were unbeaten after their first 12 matches. They are only sixth in the league in xPts. Atalanta should finish in the top four.While none of the top four teams have lost more than twice, everyone else in Serie A has at least five losses. So there’s a gap forming. Roma would be the obvious candidate to possibly replace AC Milan in the top four. I also think Juventus has played better than most realize, but it may just not be their year.Cagliari probably doesn’t deserve to finish in the bottom three, yet they probably still will. To me, Salernitana and Spezia are the two most likely teams to be relegated at season’s end. Empoli is nowhere near as good as its record, but has probably done enough to avoid finishing in the drop zone. Genoa and Venezia are other possible candidates to be playing in Serie B next season. 

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What If? College Football Playoff Scenarios Ahead of Championship Weekend

by Oskeim Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

On Sunday, the College Football Playoff Committee will announce its final Top 25 poll which will include the top four and the programs that will play for this season’s national championship. The current top four – Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Alabama – looks solid, but nothing is set in stone as all of the FBS conferences will tee up their championship games this weekend. And anything can happen. Best Case Scenario There are a few best-case scenarios for the CFP committee. If Georgia, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win their respective conference championship, all three will make the playoff. The only issue would be the fourth spot. If current No. 5 Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 championship game, the Cowboys would likely move up into the spot vacated by Alabama. Remember, the Crimson Tide plays Georgia in the SEC title game. If the Cowboys lost to Baylor, then No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1) could move into that fourth spot. Regardless, the committee’s job would be much easier if the top three win this weekend. The Chaos Factor If the top three winning is the best-case scenario for the committee, all three of those teams losing is probably the worst-case scenario. Add in an Oklahoma State loss and you have essentially created complete chaos.Imagine, Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC. Michigan loses to Iowa to become a two-loss team. Cincinnati loses to Houston in the AAC championship and Oklahoma State falls to Baylor preventing the Cowboys from moving up. Now what?That whole scenario is probably the committee’s worst nightmare. What if Oregon stomps Utah in the Pac-12 title game? What if Baylor puts on a show against Oklahoma State to become the Big 12 champ? What if the SEC championship game comes down to the final minutes? Could both Alabama and Georgia make the top four? Somewhere in Between This college football season, we have seen plenty of chaos. There have been some monumental upsets and it would be safe to assume that we see at least one this weekend. That means the likely outcome for the CFP committee probably lies somewhere in between the best-case and worst-case scenarios. Oklahoma State will make the top four if it wins the Big 12 and one of Alabama, Michigan, or Cincinnati loses their conference championship. If Georgia loses to Alabama, there is still the possibility of a two-loss Alabama in the playoff. Remember, the committee leans SEC.  Notre Dame only makes the playoff if Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State lose. The Fighting Irish do have nine wins over Power 5 programs but wins over teams like Duke and Georgia Tech just don’t carry the same weight as Oklahoma State’s four wins over Top 25 programs, for example.  The interesting thing heading into this weekend is that Cincinnati already has a win over their AAC title game opponent – Houston. The same is true in the Big 12 where Oklahoma State beat Baylor 24-14 earlier this season. It’s hard to beat a team twice in one season.  Imagine a scenario where the Bearcats and Cowboys both lose. The SEC championship game ends up close. That would probably result in both Georgia and Alabama making the cut. If Michigan won the Big Ten, it would be in and the committee would have to once again decide on the fourth spot.  

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