by Al McMordie
Saturday, Apr 15, 2023The NBA's 1st Round of the Playoffs tips off today, so let's take a look at the match-ups and the pertinent stats.
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 1:00 pm
Line: Philadelphia -8.5, O/U 213.5
Series Odds: 76ers -1120; Nets +715
Season Series: Philadelphia 4-0
Season Over/Under Results: Over 3-1
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Atlanta Hawks
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 3:30 pm
Line: Boston -10, O/U 231.5
Series Odds: Celtics -1250; Hawks +820
Season Series: Boston 3-0
Season Over/Under Results: Over 2-1
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 New York Knicks
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 6:00 pm
Line: Cleveland -5.5, O/U 216.5
Series Odds: Cavaliers -195; Knicks +180
Season Series: New York 3-1
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#3 Sacramento Kings vs. #6 Golden State Warriors
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 8:30 pm
Line: Sacramento -1, O/U 237.5
Series Odds: Warriors -265; Kings +225
Season Series: Golden State 3-1
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 3:00 pm
Line: Memphis -3.5, O/U 227
Series Odds: Grizzlies -145; Lakers +125
Season Series: Los Angeles 2-1
Season Over/Under Results: Under 3-0
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #8 Miami Heat
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 5:30 pm
Line: Milwaukee -9, O/U 218.5
Series Odds: Bucks -905; Heat +645
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#4 Phoenix Suns vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 8:00 pm
Line: Phoenix -7, O/U 225.5
Series Odds: Suns -510; Clippers +405
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#1 Denver Nuggets vs. #8 Minnesota Timberwolves
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 10:30 pm
Line: Denver -7.5, O/U 224.5
Series Odds: Nuggets -540; Timberwolves +425
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: Over 3-1
Based on my research, an important predictor of NBA Playoff series success is (not surprisingly) regular season series results. As you can see above, there were two series sweeps this season: Boston defeated Atlanta in all three games (including two in Atlanta), while Philadelphia was 4-0 vs. Brooklyn. I would favor taking the Celtics and 76ers to win their respective series. Admittedly, one has to lay a huge price on each of those series, but sometimes, one should go after the low-hanging fruit. An alternate strategy might be to lay 1.5 (or 2.5) games with a series prop bet. That way, one could get a better return on the wager, but one would lose if his team won the series 4 games to 3 (or 4 games to 2 if laying 2.5 games).
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #6 Brooklyn Nets
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 1:00 pm
Line: Philadelphia -8.5, O/U 213.5
Series Odds: 76ers -1120; Nets +715
Season Series: Philadelphia 4-0
Season Over/Under Results: Over 3-1
#2 Boston Celtics vs. #7 Atlanta Hawks
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 3:30 pm
Line: Boston -10, O/U 231.5
Series Odds: Celtics -1250; Hawks +820
Season Series: Boston 3-0
Season Over/Under Results: Over 2-1
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 New York Knicks
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 6:00 pm
Line: Cleveland -5.5, O/U 216.5
Series Odds: Cavaliers -195; Knicks +180
Season Series: New York 3-1
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#3 Sacramento Kings vs. #6 Golden State Warriors
Game 1: Saturday, April 15, 8:30 pm
Line: Sacramento -1, O/U 237.5
Series Odds: Warriors -265; Kings +225
Season Series: Golden State 3-1
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 3:00 pm
Line: Memphis -3.5, O/U 227
Series Odds: Grizzlies -145; Lakers +125
Season Series: Los Angeles 2-1
Season Over/Under Results: Under 3-0
#1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #8 Miami Heat
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 5:30 pm
Line: Milwaukee -9, O/U 218.5
Series Odds: Bucks -905; Heat +645
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#4 Phoenix Suns vs. #5 Los Angeles Clippers
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 8:00 pm
Line: Phoenix -7, O/U 225.5
Series Odds: Suns -510; Clippers +405
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: O/U split, 2-2
#1 Denver Nuggets vs. #8 Minnesota Timberwolves
Game 1: Sunday, April 16, 10:30 pm
Line: Denver -7.5, O/U 224.5
Series Odds: Nuggets -540; Timberwolves +425
Season Series: Teams split, 2-2
Season Over/Under Results: Over 3-1
Based on my research, an important predictor of NBA Playoff series success is (not surprisingly) regular season series results. As you can see above, there were two series sweeps this season: Boston defeated Atlanta in all three games (including two in Atlanta), while Philadelphia was 4-0 vs. Brooklyn. I would favor taking the Celtics and 76ers to win their respective series. Admittedly, one has to lay a huge price on each of those series, but sometimes, one should go after the low-hanging fruit. An alternate strategy might be to lay 1.5 (or 2.5) games with a series prop bet. That way, one could get a better return on the wager, but one would lose if his team won the series 4 games to 3 (or 4 games to 2 if laying 2.5 games).
Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie
