Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Articles

The Sacramento Kings Are Still Playing Hard (and Covering)

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The Sacramento Kings may be out of the playoff race, yet they are offering some point spread value down the stretch as they play hard for head coach Alvin Gentry. They played Houston as a small road favorite on Wednesday in a game between two teams playing for next year in the Western Conference. The Kings were on a two-game winning streak before losing at Miami to an angry Heat team desperate to end a four-game losing streak in a 123-100 loss on Monday. Because they are not going to make the playoffs this year, they appear to have shut down De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis for the rest of the season with their nagging injuries. Yet the team is still competitive with rookie Davion Mitchell being given the keys to lead the offense. When they drafted Mitchell with the ninth pick in the first round out of Baylor, many observers were scratching their heads considering they already had Fox and Tyrese Haliburton as starting guards. Yet after Haliburton was traded to Indiana with Sabonis coming over in return, Mitchell has been given the room to develop. In the last five games since Fox has been out before Thursday’s game, Mitchell was averaging 22 points per game with 7 assists per game, 3 rebounds per game, and 1 steal per game. Sacramento beat the Rockets, 121-118, with Mitchell scoring 24 points while adding 8 assists and 5 rebounds. Sacramento cannot do too much to help their ping pong ball odds for the upcoming NBA draft lottery. Having the sixth-worst record in the league, they are losing ground quickly against the Indiana Pacers who are in complete free-fall after that trade. The Kings began the last day of March remaining 5 1/2 games above Oklahoma City who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. At this point, Gentry probably wants his team to continue to play well and build positive momentum for the future while seeing what Mitchell can do. Our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month was with Sacramento in that Wednesday game in Houston. Bettors who had had -2.5 tickets won, yet there -3s out there with those punters having to settle for the push. The Kings will remain an interesting option for the rest of the regular season. They have covered the point spread in sixteen of their last twenty-five games in the second half of the season along with nine of their fourteen games this month. They are 5-1-1 ats in their last six games on the road, and they have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road against teams not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Good luck - TDG.

Read more

Gaming Out Some Game Theory Under the New NFL Overtime Rule

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

I have previously offered my proposal for a change to the NFL overtime rules: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeI have also written my thoughts about how the recent NFL change to the overtime rule may only kick the can regarding the problem they are attempting to solve: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/nfl-overtime-rule-change-kicking-the-can-or-game-theory-lollapoloozaIn that second article, I identified some interesting Game Theory circumstances that coaches will now have. These decisions do not solve the inherent structural problem from the advantage of winning the coin flip award, but it does offer some avenues for good or bad coaching decisions to determine the ending of the game. I see three questions that head coaches will now encounter.(1) We just won the flip — do we want the ball first or second?The answer to this one may initially seem pretty straightforward since years of the college football overtime system have provided many examples to analyze how this dynamic plays out. Most college football teams who win the right to choose the first option in overtime choose the second possession. The logic is that the offense that understands exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game has an advantage. What should an offense do if confronted with a fourth down? The team with the ball first may decide to simply kick the field goal. But this could be a mistake since their opponent now knows they can win the game with a touchdown — and change their play-calling to be more aggressive. On the other hand, if the team with the ball first attempts to go for it on fourth down — and fails — then their opponents seize a huge advantage since they can play conservatively and win the game with a short field goal. An important concept within Game Theory is this: it is disadvantageous to make the first critical (potentially game-defining) decision. Why is this? Putting yourself at unnecessary risk foregoes the opportunity for your opponent to offer you an advantage, free of charge (without taking a risk). Think of these scenarios as a game of chicken — the first one that blinks puts themselves at a disadvantage. This is the strategic foundation in chess to delay the deployment of the queen (with the Game Theory exceptions of this norm, notwithstanding). This is why college football teams choose the second possession in the overtime period. This is (one of the reasons) why it is more successful to avoid choosing big underdog upsets in the first round of your March Madness bracket (for every Saint Peter’s Hail Mary, there are far more misses — so let everyone else choose UAB while you retain the sizable haul from Houston). This is also a foundational reason that aggressive play in poker is advantageous when it forces your opponent to put all their chips at risk. Yet the “obvious” Game Theory decision within the new NFL overtime rules is not so obvious in practice. While the college system rotates who gets the ball first and last from round to round, the NFL system maintains the same order from round to round — but without a guarantee that that the team going last in round one will ever get the ball again (if their opponent scores first in that hypothetical round two). Opting for the ball last in the first round might doom that team to never getting a second chance at the football. This brings us to the second question.(2) If trailing by seven points in overtime, should you attempt a two-point conversion if you score a potential game-tying touchdown. If the team chooses (to attempt) to simply tie the game with an extra point, then all their opponent needs is a field goal to win the game. Is the team better off by simply trying to win the game with a two-point conversion now? The real question is simple: does the team have a higher chance of successfully converting the two-point conversion than they do in stopping their opponent from scoring a touchdown or field goal? In practice, determining the true answer is very hard. Game Theory suggests the more opportunity you offer your opponent to make a mistake, the more likely they will. But the margins are getting thinner. (3) Should the team getting the ball first in overtime attempt a two-point conversion after their touchdown with the knowledge that their opponent could hypothetically win the game with a two-point conversion if they counter with a touchdown?The real question posed to this team seems to be: are their odds of missing the two-point conversion lower than the risk assessment of (a) the probability that their opponent would choose to win the game with a two-point conversion rather than tie with an extra point (question (2), above; there is no risk of going for the two-point conversion if your opponent will always play for the tie) and (b) the probability of the success your opponent has in converting this two-point conversion. In poker, these risk assessments take place all the time in assessing pot odds regarding staying in a hand or folding. This is getting pretty complicated. Game Theory suggests that the more complicated the situation gets, the more likely someone will make a mistake. I don’t know how this will play out (besides knowing what Brandon Staley will choose in every instance). And the sample sizes are small. Even if the success rate of two-point conversions drops to 35% in overtime given the pressure of the moment, the depletion of a team’s best plays (that were already burned), and injuries impacting optimum effectiveness, teams that go for two will find some success. After playing these scenarios out, I still tend to defer to the assumption that the team that provokes their opponent to blink first will then be at an advantage. We have five months to game this out some more, maybe my thoughts will evolve?Best of luck — Frank. 

Read more

NFL Overtime Rule Change -- Kicking the Can or Game Theory Lollapalooza?

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The NFL changed their overtime rules this week after the outcry from the AFC Divisional playoff run where Kansas City beat Buffalo by a 42-36 score. I wrote about my modest proposal to change the overtime rules at the time here: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeNot surprisingly, the league has voted to ensure each team gets one possession in overtime. Atlanta Falcons President Rich McKay inadvertently offered some comedy to the situation by citing that the decision was “data-driven” since the team who won the coin toss to begin overtime went on to win the game in 10 of the 12 playoff overtime games since the rule was initiated. That’s quite a sample size over a 13-year period since the New Orleans Saints were the first team to benefit from that rule change in the 2009 playoffs (Drew Brees versus Minnesota). Seven teams won the game in the first possession which seemed compelling to folks like McKay and NBC Sports’ journalist/pundit Peter King. If one less team would have clinched the game with an opening drive touchdown in the overtime over these 13 years, would the data no longer have supported the change? What exactly did the NFL, McKay, and King think was going to happen when the winner of the coin toss is given such a strong incentive to not bring out a kicker of any kind since a touchdown successfully ends the game for them?This reform does not solve the problem. It merely kicks the can. Peter King and the 24-hour Hot Take Industry will have plenty to still talk about with the next dozen NFL playoff games that go to overtime over the next dozen or so years. If Josh Allen would have countered the Chiefs' initial overtime touchdown with a Bills’ touchdown, then Kansas City gets the ball back with the opportunity to simply win the game via a field goal. The inequity stemming from the arbitrary coin flip emerges once again, albeit delayed. King can cite the statistics that the team that won the coin flip continues to be more likely to win in overtime. Surprise!As I mentioned in my previous thoughts on this matter, this change in the rule does create the opportunity for some interesting game theory. The team getting the ball second may choose to attempt to end the game right then and thereafter score their potential game-tying touchdown by attempting a 2-point conversion. Of course, if they fail, they lose the game. This possibility may convince the Brandon Staley’s of the world to attempt 2-point conversions if they score the first touchdown in overtime, which will be hilarious/infuriating depending on where one's money is invested. It will be like Lollapalooza for the NFL Analytics Twitter (once they decide where the Group Think answer is).This will add drama to the proceedings. The college football overtime format has drama — and the NFL has little interest in adopting their proposal. This reform by the NFL attempts to obscure the inherent problem that a coin flip gives one team a structural advantage. Layered within this change is the incentivizing for one or both teams bypassing the extra point for a two-point conversion. The first team to miss a two-point conversion probably loses. Sounds like the college system. My earlier proposal was to replace the coin flip with the awarding the structural advantage of getting to choose the first or last possession that generated the most total yards in the game (and add special teams yards!) with the choice of first or last possession. Some coaches may determine that getting the ball last becomes the more strategic option since that offense will know exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game. Peter King at least has to change his talking point to “the team that gained the most yardage during the game most often wins in overtime.” Rich McKay can continue to claim this is all “data-driven!”It will be interesting to see how this plays out in practice. One thing we probably can already conclude is that a dozen examples in a dozen years probably does not offer enough of a sample size to make responsible conclusions. But that will not stop us!Best of luck  — Frank.

Read more

MLB 2022: NL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

NL East Division Preview for MLB 2022Atlanta Braves – The Braves are projected by most to land at around 90 wins this season and battle it out with the Mets for the top spot in this division. However, they are the defending champs and it so tough to repeat and teams can slump some after winning it all. Not only that, as stacked as this team is, the loss of Freddie Freeman, a Brave for so long, could really impact the heart and soul of this team to an extent. Miami Marlins – The Marlins are expected to finish in a range of mid-70s in wins this season. They have a solid rotation really when you look at it. But the bullpen is solid yet not truly dominant and then this lineup is just not that strong. That is why this team again finishes below .500 and perhaps looking at unders when some of Miami’s top starting pitching is out there will be the way to go with this team. New York Mets – The Mets are projected by most to land at around 90 wins this season and battle it out with the Braves for the top spot in this division.  In my opinion this is the team to beat in the division. However, they will have to improve their road play to win the division as they won just 30 of 81 road games last year! But I like the looks of this lineup and certainly this team is loaded top end talent in the starting rotation too. Solid bullpen as well so this team has the makings to hold off the Braves and Phillies at the top of the NL East as long as they get more road wins which I fully expect this season. Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies are certainly still a threat in this division but likely to fall into the mid-80s for a win total and fall just short of both the Braves and Mets. Defense matters and the Phillies were one of the worst teams in the majors defensively last season. However, if Nola bounces back and this solid-looking rotation holds up and the bullpen is decent, this team will be tough to beat. They have a rock-solid lineup of hitters and absolutely could make a push this season. The key will be avoiding the dreaded late season fade that tends to plague this team annually in recent years. Washington Nationals – Projected to be in the 70-range for their win total this season as Washington continues its slide that began when the Nats finished below .500 in the shortened 2020 season. This team could have quite a few overs in my opinion. They still have a solid lineup but have a lot of question marks in the starting rotation and this season the bullpen is relying a lot on guys that are not 100% proven just yet to say the least. Remember this team had 34 blown saves last year and that is the most since they moved from Montreal over 15 years ago! This year’s bullpen also looks shaky. Strong hitting, subpar pitching combine for a team likely to be good to lack out for considering overs depending on the pitching match-ups. 

Read more

MLB 2022: AL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

AL East Division Preview for MLB 2022Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are projected by most to finish with a win total in the low-60s. Baltimore only won 52 games last season and will again be one of the worst teams in the majors. This team has been so focused on player development and the farm system that they continue to struggle to put together a competitive team. It is particularly tough because they play in such a strong division with each of the other 4 teams likely to have winning seasons this year! Boston Red Sox – Boston is projected to finish a little above .500 this season with a win total in the mid-80s. The Red Sox won 92 games last season but are stuck in a division that, outside of Baltimore, is filled with top competition. The concern for the Red Sox is with their bullpen but they are still a strong team in terms of their lineup and I will be looking for overs when the right pitching match-ups present themselves involving Boston and their opposition. New York Yankees – The Yankees are expected to challenge win this division and get to a win total in the low-90s but the Rays and Jays are likely to have something to say about that. One of the two could emerge as a challenger to the Yankees absolutely. What would be a weakness with the big bankroll Yankees? It just seems that health issues creep on key players for the Yankees almost always. I do like their bullpen and overall this is a stacked team once again so I will be looking for value line spots to back them but those will be few and far between because they are usually a popular choice in the betting markets.Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays should get into the upper-80s for a win total this season. Amazingly so often one of the lower payrolls in baseball but Tampa Bay still finds a way. They are so competitive. A small market team that is easy to like based on the competitive level they bring despite not having a lot of star power. The Rays won 100 games last season but the key arms of their 2021 rotation (Baz, Patino, McClanahan, Rasmussen) were guys without starting pitching experience at the MLB level and yet the Rays survived that. I am expecting a sophomore slump of sorts in that regard. This is still a strong team but they will ended up in the mid to upper 80s for win total rather than near the century mark. Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are expected to get into the low-90s for their win total this season. I like the fact that this team is so strong and continues to trend upwards and the young corps is growing up together in Toronto and it is building a solid clubhouse. That counts for sure and this team will challenge the Yankees for the top spot in the division. By the way, a quirky stat but certainly worth noting as this was over the course of the entire season last year: the Blue Jays were actually 2 games below .500 in night games but won 70% of day games last season on their way to a 91-win season. Keep an eye on that trend possibly continuing early on in 2022 as you look for spots to back or fade the Jays.

Read more

A Look at the 2022 MLB National League Pennant Odds

by Oskeim Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

 Once again, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers who stand out in the National League. It’s really no secret since the Boys in Blue have been favored to win not only the National League but also the World Series for the last several seasons.   Last year, the Dodgers were the favorite all the way up until Atlanta beat them 4-2 in the National League Championship series. The roster has changed slightly, but Los Angeles will still field a lineup full of All-Stars and a pitching staff full of Cy Young-caliber pitchers.  There are a number of teams that made some offseason moves to put themselves in position to challenge L.A. Can any of them overtake the Dodgers? Here’s a look at the 2022 MLB National League pennant race.  Favored Again  It’s like déjà vu all over again as Yogi Berra used to say. The Dodgers are the overall betting favorite to win the NL pennant at +240. L.A. is an overwhelming favorite despite losing a former NL Rookie of the Year and former World Series MVP. SS Corey Seager is now a Texas Ranger, but the Dodgers still have a lineup full of All-Star talent.   Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Gavin Lux, Will Smith, and Trae Turner are all All-Star worthy. Then, the Dodgers went out and inked another former NL MVP and World Series champion Freddie Freeman. From top to bottom in the batting order, the Dodgers don’t have a weakness.  Then, there is the pitching. Even if Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw (two Cy Young winners) do not return, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Dustin May. It’s easy to see why the Dodgers are favored to win the NL pennant again.  Mets on the Move  The way oddsmakers see it, the New York Mets' offseason was enough to propel them into the role of top challenger to the Dodgers' NL supremacy. The Mets are given +500 odds to win the NL pennant after they acquired such players as P Max Scherzer and OF Starling Marte.   Scherzer wound up 15-4 last season with a WHIP of 0.86. Opposing hitters hit just .186 against Scherzer last season. He will pair with a healthy Jacob deGrom to form the best No. 1-No. 2 pitching combination in the majors. The Mets also have Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt, and Carlos Carrasco in their rotation.   The offense still has former NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso who hit 37 homers last season as well as Marte, SS Francisco Lindor, and DH Robinson Cano.  Contenders  You can’t count the defending champion Braves (+500) out of the mix. Despite losing Freeman, the Braves did sign slugger Matt Olson to replace him. Their lineup is pretty deep with Marcell Ozuna, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley. Plus, the Braves get a healthy Ronald Acuna Jr. back and the pitching rotation features Max Fried and Charlie Morton and Atlanta added closer Kenley Jansen.  The Padres were a contender last season until injuries ruined their chances. A healthy Fernando Tatis along with Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado gives the Padres plenty of power. The pitching rotation includes former Cy Young winner Blake Snell plus Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. If San Diego (+850) can stay healthy, they should contend for the NL pennant.  Watch Out  At +700, it’s hard to call Milwaukee a sleeper, but the Brewers get left out of the discussion when it comes time to talk NL pennant. The Brewers have exactly what it takes to win championships – pitching. Both Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes finished in the top five in the NL Cy Young race. Burnes won the award after finishing with an NL-best 2.43 ERA. Woodruff’s was 2.56. With a former NL MVP in Christian Yelich as well as Kolten Wong and Hunter Renfroe, the Brewers are another strong candidate to battle for the NL pennant. 

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. Philadelphia visits Detroit to tip off the card at 7:10 PM ET as a 10.5-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. Two games start at 7:40 PM ET. Atlanta is at home against Cleveland as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5. Brooklyn hosts Milwaukee in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Nets won their second game in their last three with their 130-123 victory against Detroit as a 14-point favorite on Tuesday. They raised their record to 40-36 with the win. The Bucks won their third game in their last four with a 118-116 win at Philadelphia in a pick ‘em contest on Tuesday. Milwaukee has a 47-28 record. Brooklyn is a 1-point favorite with a total of 238.Chicago plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 8:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223. Utah is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Jazz lost their fifth straight game with a 121-115 loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Tuesday. They have a 45-31 record. The Lakers lost their third straight game and seventh of their last nine in a 128-110 setback in Dallas to the Mavericks as a 12-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles’ record fell to 31-44. Utah is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 225.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Five games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. Boston hosts New Jersey as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Toronto plays at home against Winnipeg as a -205 money line favorite with a total of 6. Florida is at home against Chicago as a -350 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The New York Islanders are at home against Columbus as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina hosts Montreal as a -400 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Minnesota plays at home against Pittsburgh at 8:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two more NHL games start at 9:07 PM ET. Colorado is at home against San Jose as a -320 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Calgary hosts Los Angeles as a -280 money line favorite with a total of 6. Dallas travels to Anaheim at 10:07 PM ET as a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Thursday college basketball card has two games. Texas A&M plays Xavier on ESPN at 7 PM ET in the championship game of the National Invitational Tournament at Madison Square Garden in New York. The Aggies won their 11th game in their last 12 in a 72-56 victory against Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite in the NIT semifinals on Tuesday. They have a 27-12 record. The Musketeers won their fifth game in their last six with an 84-77 upset victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point underdog in their NIT semifinals contest on Tuesday. Xavier improved their record to 22-12. Texas A&M is a 4-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Coastal Carolina hosts Fresno State in the championship game of The Basketball Classic at 7 PM ET. The Chanticleers upset South Alabama on the road, 69-68, as a 1-point underdog in the semifinals of this tournament on Monday. Coastal Carolina has a 19-13 record. The Bulldogs won their third straight game to reach the finals with a 67-48 victory against Southern Utah as a 7-point favorite on Monday. They have a 24-13 record. Fresno State is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 126.5.

Read more

The Final Four is Finally Here!

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022

Favorites were 36-15 SU (.706) but 24-27 ATS (37.1%), or -5.7 net games (one contest closed at pick), heading into last weekend's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games. Baylor was the only No. 1 seed to not advance to the Sweet 16 but come Sunday night, the lone No. 1 seed advancing to the Final 4 was Kansas. The tourney's overall No. 1 seed (and the AP's No. 1 team in its final regular season poll) was Gonzaga but the Bulldogs lost 74-68 to Arkansas (a No. 4 seed). Once again, Mark Few's team will head home without an NCAA title. The "big news' of the Sweet 16 was St Peter's beating Purdue (a No. 3 seed) 67-64 on Friday, to become the first 15th seed to reach the Elite 8. Kansas ( No. 1 seed in the Midwest) beat Providence 66-61 and No. 10 Miami-Florida beat No. 11 Iowa St 70-56. Favorites would go 3-4 SU (Texas Tech-Duke closed at pick) and 2-5 ATS. Favorites were 3-1 SU & ATS in the Elite 8 games, although note that the higher seeds went 4-0 SU and ATS. No. 5 Houston was a small favorite over No. 2 Villanova but it's hard to win when a team makes ONE of 20 three-point attempts as the Cougars did last Saturday. Also on Saturday, No. 2 Duke beat No. Arkansas 78-69. On Sunday, the two double digit seeds (No. 15 St Peter's and No. 10 Miami) were outclassed and outplayed by North Carolina and Kansas, respectively. Heading to the Final 4, favorites have gone 42-20 (.677) and 29-33 (46.8%) or -7.3 net gamesKansas may be the only No. 1 seed to make 2022's Final Four but it is full of college basketball Blue Bloods. Two No. 2 seeds (Duke and Villanova) plus No. 8 North Carolina join Kansas in New Orleans. For the record, Kansas was ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll, Villanova No. 4, Duke No. 9 and North Carolina No. 19. Kansas ranks No. 1 all-time with 2,328 wins, North Carolina checks in at No. 3 with 2,294 wins, Duke at No. 4 with 2,214 wins and Villanova at No. 19 with 1,817 wins.North Carolina is the lowest seed at No. 8 but is in its 21st Final 4, the most of any school in history. Duke is playing in its 17th Final 4 (tied for 3rd most) and Kansas in its 16th (5th-most). FYI...The last time Duke, Kansas and North Carolina all made the Final Four was 1991, when Duke shocked the 'unbeatable' UNLV Runnin' Rebels then beat Kansas (coached by Roy Williams) for Coach K's first title. North Carolina owns SIX national championships, Duke owns five (ALL under Coach K) plus Kansas and Villanova each own three.The Villanova-Kansas game will play "second-fiddle" to UNC-Duke, as that rivalry is over 100 years old but the schools have never gone head-to-head in the NCAA tournament until now. It comes in Mike Krzyzewski's final season (you can't make this up!). Meanwhile, Coach K's "opposite number" will be UNC's Hubert Davis. He is the first first-year head coach to make the Final Four since Bill Guthridge, who also did so with UNC after taking over for Dean Smith in 1998 (can't make that up, either). However, don't sell the Villanova-Kansas game short, as Kansas opened the season at No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll and Villanova at No. 4. Bill Self's Kansas team is the lone No. 1 seed left and while Villanova head coach Jay Wright can't match Coach K's resume (five national championships and an appearance in the Final 4 in each of the last FIVE decades), Wright is looking to win a national championship for the THIRD time in the last seven years ('Nova won in 2016 and 2018).At DraftKings, Duke (+155) is the title favorite, followed by Kansas (+185), Villanova (+450) and UNC (+500). In Saturday's games, Kansas is favored by 4 1/2-points over Villanova, with a total of 133, while Duke is favored by four points over North Carolina, with a total of 131.Good luck...Larry

Read more

Final Four Facts

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022

Final Four Facts Villanova vs. Kansas - Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. The Under is 3-1 for them. Same for ‘Nova with the Under cashing each of the last three. All four tourney opponents have shot worse than 35.7% against KU. Nova has held its last two opponents to 34.4% and 29.8% from the field. At the same time, the Wildcats have shot 37.3% and 28.8% in those same two games. Houston made just 1 of 20 three-point tries against ‘Nova in the Elite 8! Villanova’s own three-point shooting percentage has decreased every game in the tournament, going from 46.4% to 34.8% to 30.0% to 23.8%. Kansas’ last two opponents combined to go 7 of 44 on 3PA.  The Wildcats aren’t just the best free throw shooting team in the country, they are one of the best FT shooting teams in the history of college basketball. Kansas shoots just 72% from the charity stripe. Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is 7-5 ATS. The Under is 9-2 in those same 11 neutral site games for ‘Nova. But the Over is 5-1 this year for KU following a game where they gave up fewer than 60 points. They allowed 50 vs. Miami.The highest seeded team Kansas beat was Providence (#4). The highest seeded team beaten by Villanova was Houston (#5). Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. The initial line move went Kansas’ way. The total is also up half a point.Head to head, Villanova has covered the last five meetings. That goes back to 2013. The last time the teams played was December 2019. Two of the five games were in the NCAA Tournament. North Carolina vs. Duke - UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. After North Carolina’s first two tournament games both went Over (they scored 90+ both times), the Under has hit in each of the last two. They’ve gone from averaging 94 PPG the first two (including OT vs. Baylor) to 71 PPG the last two. Duke has scored at least 78 in all four of its games with the Over sitting at 2-1-1. The Over is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. Duke is shooting well over 50% for the NCAA Tournament, but UNC has held three opponents to 35.6% or worse. After facing a 9-seed, 1-seed and 4-seed in the first three rounds, the Tar Heels were a bit lucky to get a 15-seed in the Elite 8. Duke’s journey began by facing a 15-seed. Since then, they’ve gone up against a 7, 3 and 4 seed. Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. The last six times these long-time rivals have met, the Over has hit. This O/U line is right in the same neighborhood as those last six. The Tar Heels are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings, but just 5-5 straight up and Duke has come out ahead on the scoreboard in five of the last seven. The Over is 46-18 the last 64 times Duke has taken on a team that has a winning record. The Over has hit six straight times for North Carolina in that very situation.Obviously, Unders dominated in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, going 10-1–1.  See you Saturday!

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 03/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA and NHL action.The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket. Three games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Dallas visits Cleveland as a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 214 (all odds from DraftKings). Denver plays at Indiana as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Washington is at home against Orlando as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 221. Three more games start at 7:40 PM ET. Charlotte plays at New York as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. Toronto hosts Minnesota as a 3-point favorite with a total of 229.Boston plays at home against Miami in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Celtics had their six-game winning streak end in a 115-112 loss at Toronto as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. Their record fell to 47-29. The Heat ended their four-game losing streak with their 123-100 victory against Sacramento as a 13.5-point favorite on Monday. They raised their record to 48-28 with the win. Boston is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Sacramento plays at Houston as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 233. Atlanta travels to Oklahoma City as a 12-point road favorite with an over/under of 229. Memphis is at San Antonio at 8:40 PM ET as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 233. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. New Orleans plays at Portland as a 13-point road favorite with an over/under of 229. Phoenix travels to Golden State for the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Suns are on an eight-game winning streak with their 114-104 win against Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. They improved their record to 61-14. The Warriors have lost three straight and six of seven after their 123-95 setback at Memphis as an 11-point underdog on Monday. Golden State’s record fell to 48-28 with the loss. Phoenix is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 225. Six games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET, with Winnipeg playing at Buffalo as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers visit Detroit in the first game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:37 PM ET. The Rangers won their fourth game in their last five with a 5-4 victory against Buffalo on Sunday. The Red Wings are on a three-game losing streak after an 11-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. New York is a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Edmonton hosts Los Angeles at 9:37 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Three more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. Vancouver plays at home against St. Louis as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6. San Jose is at Arizona as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Vegas visits Seattle in the second game on TNT at 10:07 PM ET. The Golden Knights won their fourth game in their last six with a 5-4 victory against Chicago on Saturday. The Kraken won their fourth game in their last six with their 6-1 win in Los Angeles on Monday. Vegas is a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 6.

Read more

NIT Tournament Championship Games 1991-2021

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022

The #1-seeded Texas A&M Aggies and #2-seeded Xavier Musketeers have reached the NIT Tournament Championship game, in Madison Square Garden.Let's take a look at how the NIT Tournament's title games have gone since 1991 -- from a point spread perspective.Favorites:  15-15 ATSUnderdogs:  15-15 ATSTeams priced from -1 to -2.5 points (8-9 ATS)Teams priced from -3 to -4.5 points (6-6 ATS)Teams priced from -5 to -6.5 points (1-0 ATS)Teams off ATS win (vs. foes not off ATS win):  4-3 ATSTeams off double-digit win (vs. foes not off double-digit win):  9-8 ATSTeams that covered the spread in their previous game by 10+ points (vs. foes that did not):  10-3 ATSTeams off an upset win (vs. foes not off an upset win):  9-7 ATSTeams playing with revenge:  1-4 ATS (1-3 Underdog; 0-1 Favorite; 0-2 Conference; 1-2 Non-Conference)Teams with a better W/L percentage:  16-14 ATSTeams seeded better than their opponent:  8-4 ATS#1 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #1):  2-3 ATS#2 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #2): 3-2 ATS#3 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #3): 3-2 ATS#4 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #4): 4-2 ATS#5 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #5): 0-1 ATS#6 seeds (vs. teams not seeded #6): 0-2 ATS(The NIT tournaments from 1991 through 2005 were not seeded.)Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Read more

NBA: Assessing The Playoff Picture

by Will Rogers

Tuesday, Mar 29, 2022

NBA: Assessing the Playoff PictureEastern Conference Last month, I told you that Boston would move up the standings and they have. The Celtics are 11-2 in March and both losses came by only three points each. They have the best point differential in the conference and #1 in the entire league in defensive efficiency. It will be interesting to see where Boston finishes, because I think a lot of people will be betting them to come out of the East. Statistically, they are the best team.It’s a four-team race for first with the Celtics, Heat, 76ers and Bucks all separated by just one game in the standings. There’s never been a race that close involving so many teams. The Celtics did just lose their defensive anchor, Robert Williams III, to a knee injury and he’s out for the rest of the regular season, if not longer.Boston has as many 20-plus point wins since January 23rd (12) as any other team from the East has all season! I expect the current top four teams to be the conference semifinalists come playoff time.Chicago and Cleveland, the league’s two biggest surprise teams in the first half of the season, have fallen. At the same time, Toronto has risen, already passing Cleveland and pulling into a fifth place tie with Chicago. Looking at some key numbers, the Bulls fall short of the Raptors and even the Cavaliers. As for which of these three teams end up out of the top six (and in the play-in round), I point to Chicago (although the list of injuries in Cleveland is growing). In addition to telling you Boston would rise last month, I did mention Chicago would falter.Brooklyn, Charlotte and Atlanta will get the other play-in spots. Brooklyn is obviously the most dangerous from that group as Kyrie Irving is now eligible to play home games. The Nets are a league-worst 8-27-1 ATS in home games, but are the one team that could go from the play-in round and make a deep run in the playoffs. Atlanta has been playing better of late (7-3 L10) and is capable of winning two play-in games, if necessary. Western ConferencePhoenix has already clinched home court advantage. What has been most surprising is the Grizzlies, now 18-2 this year when Ja Morant DOESN’T play, solidifying themselves as the second best team in the West. They’ve clinched a playoff berth and with a five game lead over third place Golden State, Memphis should be the #2 seed. After that is where it gets interesting. The Warriors have lost three in a row and are without Steph Curry. They have a 1.5 game lead over Dallas, who just overtook Utah for fourth place. The Jazz have lost four in a row, going cold at the worst possible time. The Mavs and Warriors are two of the league’s very best defensive teams. The Under is 26-11-1 in Dallas home games. The Mavs have also won 18 of their last 22 home games, huge because right now they would be in line to have home court advantage over the Jazz in the first round. Those teams played four times in the regular season and the home team was 4-0. You also can’t rule out Denver, who is sixth and sitting just a half game back of the Jazz. The Nuggets already have a franchise record 23 road wins this season. Minnesota is worthy of moving up into the top six, but faces a two-game deficit with only six to play. The Timberwolves have a better point differential than either the Mavs or Nuggets. They also have the second best net rating in the league since the All-Star Break. At the very worst, the T’wolves should win their first play-in game to qualify for the playoffs. The Clippers, even with five straight losses and no Paul George or Kawhi Leonard, seem to be safe for the play-in round. But I could see them losing twice and not making the final eight.The Pelicans, Lakers and Spurs will compete for the final two play-in spots. With LeBron James’ ankle bothering him, the Lakers are in major trouble. I like the Spurs to jump either the Pelicans or Lakers for a play-in spot. It’s crazy that one of these three teams, or the Clippers, will be the 8-seed. Whoever it winds up being will be “mince meat” for the Suns in the first round. 

Read more

Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Links

Big Al's Sports Picks Info

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2025 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.