Premier League Futures (Updated)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Jan 30, 2023
The Premier League is more than halfway through the season now and teams are really starting to round into their season form as the contenders look to make a big push in this 2nd half of the year. The Winter Transfer Window is also coming to a close soon and teams have had plenty of opportunities to boost their squads and make some big moves that could help with a big run down the final stretch of the season. The true contenders to win the league title this year are a lot different than the clubs that were expected to have good seasons at the beginning of the year and now it is time to see which of these clubs still has a real shot at making a big run down the stretch and coming away with the title. 

To Win Outright

Arsenal -138: Arsenal is the current leading favorite on the board to win the Premier League title this season and this was a team that really flew under the radar at the beginning of the season. They made some big moves to boost their squad and brought in some new management but they are exceeding expectations this year as they sit 5 points above the 2nd place club and still have a match in hand as well. Arsenal has by far been the most dominant team this year with only 2 draws and 1 loss in their 19 matches and they are on pace to surpass the best season this Arsenal club has had in its history. They even suffered a big blow when they lost their star forward in the World Cup, Gabriel Jesus, and yet they have still managed to stay in such great form without picking up a replacement. They have not only been averaging over 2 goals scored per match this year with their very potent attack, but they also have the 2nd best defense in the Premier League with only 16 goals allowed in their 19 matches. Arsenal has shown this year that they are a club that is here to stay and even though they will have Europa League matches near the end of the season which will be a bit of a distraction, they may have such a big lead in the league by then that it may not even matter though. Arsenal is a true contender to win the title and has been the most dominant team in the Premier League all season.

Manchester City +125: Manchester City is the 2nd biggest favorite on the board to win the Premier League title as they currently sit in 2nd place right now but they have fallen quite a bit from the beginning of the season. Man City was the big favorite at the beginning of the year as they were the only team that had odds that were not +$ and it was pretty much expected of them to win the title again with the dominance they have shown over the last few years. As deep as Man City is with their 2 full squads of players that could be starters on countless other teams in the Premier League, they did lose some big talent in the summer and so far they have not been having the greatest season. They did add Haaland to their squad who has been a scoring machine for them all year but in the few matches where he has struggled to create chances for himself the team as a whole has struggled to score goals in those matches which has led them to drop some points in their matches. Man City has been a lot more inconsistent as a team this year than they have been in previous years but this is a lot of value for them to win the title at +$ and even though they are 5 points behind the league leaders with Arsenal having a match in hand as well, they also still have both fixtures against Arsenal left this season so they have a chance to make a run at the title still. Man City could run into issues down the stretch though as they have bigger things to worry about with the next round of Champions League starting soon and that will be a big distraction to this team since that will be their main focus and they are still desperately looking for a Champions League title after years of league dominance. Man City does have some value at this price to win the title as they have the talent and squad depth to do it but it may be a very tight race in the end with Man City focusing their efforts elsewhere depending how deep a run they can make in Champions League.

Manchester United +4000: Manchester United comes in as the 3rd biggest favorite to win the Premier League title this year but there is a very large gap between them and the 2nd biggest favorite. With these odds it seems like there is almost no chance of Man Utd making a run at the title this year and that will likely be the case as they currently sit in 4th place with 39 points, just 11 points behind the league leading Arsenal, but Arsenal also has a match in hand on Man Utd and with no more fixtures against them this season Arsenal would have to drop some serious points for Man Utd to get back in this. Of all the teams below the top 2 right now, Man Utd does have the best shot to pull it off though as they have been in great form for a majority of the season and are finally starting to figure things out on the pitch between their starting talent and management. Man Utd is also in the middle of a club sale right now as well so even if Arsenal did drop some major points and Man Utd continued on their run, they still do not have the depth to make a run like that and would be very content with just a top 4 spot this year to get back in Champions League as they look to really boost their squad in the summer with their new influx of cash. Man Utd may not have the squad to make a run this year and win the title but this is a club that is on the rise right now and they will only get better in the summer as they look to win a title next year,

Newcastle +8000: Newcastle is the 4th biggest favorite on the board to win the title but a favorite they are definitely not. They have been having a great year as they currently sit in 3rd place with 39 points, but they are still 11 points behind the league leading Arsenal and Arsenal still has a match in hand as well. Newcastle really jumped out to a great start which propelled them up the table but they have been slowing down recently and will not be able to keep up the pace they have been on. They have the best defense in the Premier League as they have allowed the least amount of goals all season with just 11 goals allowed in their 20 matches, but as well as their defense has been playing it has led to them leaning on their defensive play more and even though they are not allowing many goals, it is not translating into wins either. They have only lost 1 match this year in their 20 matches which is very good as Arsenal is the only other team in the league with just 1 loss, but Newcastle has also only won 10 matches with 9 draws in their 20 matches played. No other team in the top 4 right now has more than 3 draws while Newcastle has 9 draws and a lot of them have come in matches where they were the dominant team but just could not score any goals. Finishing has really been a problem for them recently but this is a club that has a lot of money to buy players in the summer and they are already way ahead of schedule this season so they would be very content with just finishing in the top 4 and then addressing their needs in the summer to make them a real title contender next year. Newcastle does have a very good team this year but they have no shot at winning the title if they continue to play the way they are playing with an attack that is lacking heavily.


We have covered the top 4 teams in the Premier League right now and their odds to win the Premier League title with the way things have gone so far. There are a number of other big clubs that were not mentioned like Tottenham, Liverpool, and Chelsea but the reality is that those clubs are too far down the table to make a big enough run and all 3 clubs are in total disarray as they have all been trending in the wrong direction, spiraling toward self-destruction. The 4 clubs we discussed are the 4 clubs with the best chance of making a run for the title but at this point in the season with the way every team has been playing, this is pretty much a two horse race to the finish line as Arsenal and Man City look to battle it out down the stretch for the title. The best way to go with placing a future still is on Manchester City at +125 as this is a lot of value for them with the depth of their squad and the talent they have. They are also only 5-8 point behind Arsenal depending on what Arsenal does with the match in hand and they still have 2 matches against them this season so there is plenty of opportunity for Man City to make a comeback and take advantage of any slip ups that Arsenal may have down the stretch. 

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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