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The Giants' Underrated Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood and Alex Cobb

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

We backed the San Francisco Giants (our National League Game of the Month) in their opening game at home against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. Manager Gabe Kapler was turning to Alex Wood who had been quite good all month after finding some extra zip on his sinker. In four July starts, the lefty has a 1.31 era and a 0.87 whip. He has struck out 25 batters yet walked only three in 20 2/3 innings. Wood rewarded these observations from our research by taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning before he got into some trouble and gave up two hits including a two-run homer from the Cubs’ Patrick Wisdom. Yet Wood only gave up two hits and two runs in 6 2/3 innings to get his seventh win of the season. For the season, he now has a 7-8 record to go along with a 4.11 era and a 1.16 whip. Yet those numbers probably fail to do Wood justice for what he can do for the Giants for the rest of the season. In his five July starts, the left-hander has a 2-1 record with a 1.65 era and a 0.80.Yet Wood is not the only San Francisco starting pitcher who is pitching better than his season numbers would suggest. Kapler gave the starting pitching assignment to Alex Cobb in Game 2 of their weekend series with the Cubs. The right-hander had a 3-4 record with a 4.26 era and a 1.33 whip in fifteen starts. Cobb had been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season with a strand rate of 58.9%, far below the MLB average for runners left on base which usually hovers in the low 70% range. Yet he is seeing much better results lately. In his seven starts since the beginning of June, Cobb had a 2.82 era and a 1.17 whip. After striking out a career-high 24.9% of the batters he faced last season with the Los Angeles Angels last year, his velocity has been good this year and his strikeout rate of 22.8% is still the second-highest in his last eight seasons. Opposing hitters have a hard-hit rate of 23.3% against him which is the lowest mark in his career. In his nine starts at home at Oracle Park this year, Cobb had a 3.02 era. The 34-year-old right-hander may have pitched even better than Wood did the previous night. Cobb struck out 11 batters in his six innings of work while allowing only three hits and one run. Yet Cobb did not get any run support from his team against Chicago’s Marcus Stroman. Cobb left the game with San Francisco trailing, 1-0, before the Cubs scored three times in the top of the ninth inning. The Giants rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth yet it was not enough and Cobb took the tough luck loss. The Giants had everything go right for them last year in winning 107 games in the regular season. With a 49-51 record going into the final day in July, their management may be tempted to be sellers before the trade deadline. Yet with undervalued starting pitchers in Alex Wood and Alex Cobb joining Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb (and Jakob Junis with his 2.98 era), San Francisco might be better served by adding more bats and riding their pitching staff. With the third wildcard spot added for both leagues for the playoffs, the Giants are still only 4 1/2 games behind Philadelphia to qualify for the postseason. Good luck - TDG.

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The Surging Seattle Mariners Just Added Luis Castillo

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

The Seattle Mariners had a 29-39 record on June 20th which was worrying bettors who purchased over 84.5 win total tickets at the Westgate in Las Vegas. Yet the Mariners started playing better baseball which culminated with a fourteen-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break with a 43-39 record. Suddenly, Seattle was a serious contender to make the postseason in the American League.The Mariners are led by their rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez who was introduced to the national MLB audience with his breakout performance in the Home Run Derby before running out of steam in the finals against Juan Soto. He is the first player in the history of Major League Baseball to smack 15+ home runs, drive in 50+ runs, and swipe 20+ stolen bases in his first ninety games. The frontrunner to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award has 18 home runs, 57 runs-batted-in, and 21 stolen bases. It turns out he injured his wrist in Seattle’s win against Texas the day before the Home Run Derby which led to him not playing in their three-game series against Houston the weekend after the All-Star Game. The Mariners lost all three games to the first place team in the American League West division. He returned to the lineup on Tuesday of this week and promptly homered in consecutive games against the Rangers. Seattle swept their three-game series with Texas to set up a weekend series rematch with the Astros. The Mariners lost the first two games against Houston, yet these upstarts demonstrated their moxie by rallying from a 4-3 deficit on Saturday by scoring two runs in the top of the ninth inning to steak a 5-4 victory against them. Seattle goes into the last day of July with a 55-47 record, and they have an impressive 26-8 record since June 20th. They may still be eleven games behind the Astros in the division, yet they currently hold the second wild card spot in the American League, with a three-game cushion against Cleveland for the final wildcard spot. The Mariners signaled their commitment to putting all their energies into making a playoff run when they traded significant future assets to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo. The right-handed starting pitcher has a 4-4 record this year with a 2.86 era and a 1.07 whip this season. Shoulder surgery delayed the start of this season for the 29-year-old, yet he is clicking on all cylinders now. In his four starts this month, Castillo had a 1.93 era and a 0.89 whip. He has struck out 90 batters this season while walking only 28 batters, and he has 30 punchouts to just seven walks in his 28 innings this month. In his six seasons with the Reds, he has finished with a sub-4.00 era five times. He joins Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert to give Seattle as good a trio of starting pitchers as any team in MLB. This surging Seattle team has suddenly become a legitimate threat to win a World Series. Buy your future tickets while there is still value!Good Luck - TDG.

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2022 New Mexico Lobos Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

New Mexico Lobos2021-22 Season Record 3-9 (1-7 MWC Mountain) - 1-11-0 ATS - 3-9-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 8OverviewSince entering the MWC in 1999, New Mexico has had its share of good seasons only to be followed up by a long string of bad seasons and it is entrenched in the latter right now. The Lobos had a run of five bowl games in six years between 2002 and 2007 then came seven straight losing seasons with a combined record of 18-67 then went to the New Mexico bowl two straight years and now is in the midst of five losing campaigns in a row and a 13-42 record. Third year head coach Danny Gonzales has been given one more try to form some sort of semblance of a football team after what was an utter disaster last season. New Mexico went 3-9 which is not the worst of records but being outscored by an average of 28-12 including 31-8 over the final eight games tells the story. There is not much help in returning players or incoming players so the writing is on the wall. OffenseThe worst offense in the country will be getting a full makeover this season with just five starters coming back. The Lobos were ranked No. 130 in both total offense and scoring offense, averaging 235.3 ypg and 12.2 ppg respectively and those were not even close to second to last. The quarterback situation was an absolute mess as eight different players threw a pass and it is likely none of them will be the starter this season as Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick has the job to lose. Who he throws to is the question as leading receiver Luke Wysong is back but he had just 224 yards on 9.3 yards per completion and no touchdowns. The running game was better but the two top rushers are gone and taking over will likely be Nathaniel Jones who missed all of last season. The offensive line is another work in progress with two starters back after their top guy transferred out. DefenseThe defense was not half bad as the Lobos were No. 47 overall but that should include an asterisk as opposing teams knew they did not have to do much on offense as two touchdowns were likely enough to win so they went vanilla. But still, it was something and New Mexico brings back eight starters and has a solid No. 48 ranking in returning production. The strength is in the secondary where the top three returning tacklers are back led by safety Jerrick Redd II who had 88 tackles that led the Lobos. They had only nine interceptions which was tied for No. 80 in the nation and that should improve based on their talent and an increased pass rush as they had 25 sacks but nearly a third of those are gone so the experience up front will need to step up. The linebacking crew is nothing special but all three projected starters have a ton of experience and will be better as well. 2022 Season Outlook13 wins over the last five years is not going to bring a lot of excitement from fans, alumni and anyone else vested into this program but it has to get better at some point. Maybe? The good news is that the offense cannot be any worse and more returning starters might have stalled them even more so some fresh faces could be exactly what they need. The defense has a lot of experience coming back and while last season could have been a façade because no one needed to challenge them, the guess is they will be better. They started 2-0 last season but no repeat of that this year as they host Maine to open and then have Boise St. at home six days later. After that, there are a couple of home and road win possibilities but it will not be easy. The O/U win total is 2.5 and there are likely only four other winnable games after Maine so all it takes is two but is far from a guarantee. 

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July National League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

July National League Overachievers   Four months through the Major League Baseball season it is clear there are some overachievers on the mound. Some pitchers may be having career seasons, but others may be worth fading in August and September at favorable prices. Here is a look at a few National League starters to avoid playing on down the stretch.   Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins: Alcantara is about even-money in NL Cy Young futures, and he deserves the attention with nearly 150 innings under his belt in 21 starts to boost his WAR. He ultimately has a nearly identical xFIP to last season when he finished 9-14 and his K/9 and BB/9 rates are slightly worse this season compared to his 2021 line. The difference has been cutting his HR/9 nearly in half this season along with a career low .245 BABIP. The huge innings count in the first half of the season may be adding up as he has had a pair of marginal starts out of the break with six runs allowed and six walks allowed in just 11 innings. The Marlins also have a tough August schedule ahead including facing the Dodgers seven times while also facing Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Diego. Alcantara is going to command pricing he doesn’t deserve the rest of the season while he is still pitching for a losing team.   Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers: An All-Star with an 11-1 record through 18 starts it has been a career year for Gonsolin, who wasn’t even expected to be in the rotation to start the season. He has been a huge overachiever with a .202 BABIP and an over 84 percent strand rate, currently the most favorable rates in both of those categories among all qualified NL starters this season. Gonsolin took the loss in the All-Star game and has turned in marginal starts on both sides of the break, his first two starts in which he allowed more than two earned runs all season. Pitching for the Dodgers with a glowing record and a 2.26 ERA, Gonsolin is commanding prices like the elite starters for the Dodgers the past few seasons like Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. He isn’t in that category and currently owns an xFIP that is nearly twice as high as his ERA. Gonsolin has made two thirds of his starts this season vs. losing teams and he is already over his career high in MLB innings in a season as the late-season returns could suffer.  Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres: In his first 11 starts of the season Musgrove had a 1.50 ERA while going 7-0 for a simply incredible run. In six starts since he has a 4.82 ERA, even with little change in his strikeout and walk rates. The difference has been home runs, with six allowed in his last six starts. He did pitch in Colorado in a recent start and has faced road starts vs. the Mets and the Dodgers as ultimately his path the final two months will likely land in the middle of those two stretches. Musgrove has seen his strikeout rate shrink significantly in consecutive seasons and he is still getting away with a career low HR/9 at this point in the season. Musgrove is still listed as a top three Cy Young threat in the NL odds, but the Padres still have 12 games remaining with the Dodgers and a very difficult September schedule overall as a late season slide for Padres and Musgrove’s numbers seems very possible.  Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona has been playing rather competitive ball of late and Kelly has been a big part of that, going 4-0 in his last five starts with a 1.57 ERA. His xFIP in that span is 4.05 and he has just a 6.6 K/9 in that span, catching some big breaks with a .204 BABIP. Kelly is 10-5 this season in 20 starts and he has been a pitcher that often beats his ERA estimators since joining Arizona after four years in the KBO. Kelly has a career low K/9 this season and a career low HR/9 by a wide margin at 0.53 compared to a career average of 1.14. Not surprisingly his recent run of success has come with three starts against the sinking Giants while he has been hit hard against quality teams this season including allowing 14 runs over three starts vs. the Dodgers. Kelly has been a streaky starter in his career and ultimately the current run is not likely sustainable. Arizona has two upcoming trips to Denver plus several more series vs. NL playoff threats as Kelly won’t be able to match his July pace the rest of the way.

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July American League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

July American League Overachievers   Four months through the Major League Baseball season it is clear there are some overachievers on the mound. Some pitchers may be having career seasons, but others may be worth fading in August and September at favorable prices. Here is a look at a few American League starters to avoid playing on in most situations down the stretch.   Justin Verlander, Houston Astros: As one of the most recognizable pitchers in baseball and a two-time Cy Young winner, Verlander’s pricing has already gotten a bit out of hand. His win count is at 14 in 19 starts for incredible results while his ERA is just 1.81. By many measures Verlander isn’t having one of his better seasons in a Hall of Fame career however as his K/9 of 8.8 is his worst since 2015 and he is on pace to have his worst xFIP since 2017. Home runs have always been part of the equation for Verlander, but he currently has his lowest HR/9 since 2014 for some great fortune while his BABIP of .233 is well below his career average of .279. A pitcher of Verlander’s ability and experience can continue to succeed, but his current six-start run with a 0.86 ERA has been one of great fortune, including a strand rate of nearly 94 percent. The Astros have an 18-8 record in one-run games and have kept winning even with a decline in the offensive production for the team in recent weeks. Houston is cruising to the AL West title and is going to face steep pricing with Verlander on the mound, even though he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as his best seasons.   Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees: The Yankees have received incredible starting pitching this season, but the numbers are the most suspicious for Taillon, who entered this season with a rather average career path through five seasons. Taillon had a much better K/9 and a lower xERA last season when he went just 8-6 but with a great Yankees team this year, he has a 10-2 record in 20 starts. Taillon has one of the lowest groundball rates of his career going despite his success but after a charmed first two months, his profile is eroding. His ERA Is 5.36 over his last 10 starts even while only picking up one loss and he has a 1.79 HR/9 in that span while his groundball rate fell to just 35 percent. He has had some breaks in the schedule facing a lot of the weaker lineups in the AL this season and he has not pitched well on the road where far fewer of his innings have taken place. Taillon is the pitcher in the New York rotation to target to fade in most series as he is still drawing pricing equivalent to starters with much more proven potential.   Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians: McKenzie has a 3.24 ERA for Cleveland but with a 4.15 xFIP. He has a modest K/9 at just 8.4 and he has allowed 17 home runs in 18 starts. McKenzie had a big month of July that included three scoreless outings, but he faced Kansas City and Detroit in two of those games. He has very poor numbers against Minnesota this season and he is likely to see the Twins again in September while Cleveland has a difficult August schedule ahead facing several playoff threats. McKenzie is just 24-years-old with a thin frame as a career high in innings is approaching and so far in 52 career MLB appearances, he owns a .226 BABIP, an average really no starter has ever maintained. McKenzie will likely face teams that now have some experience against him the rest of the way and he could prove to be the more erratic starter Cleveland saw early this season in August and September.   Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays: 20-7 in 40 career starts and an All-Star this season at age 24, Manoah is on the fast track to stardom. His ERA is 2.43 this season but nothing else in his numbers suggests that he is an elite AL starter. His xFIP is 3.84 and his K/9 just 8.1 He has been fortunate with a low BABIP while stranding over 81 percent of his baserunners. He has already surpassed a career high in innings and Manoah did not pitch in 2020 as a minor leaguer at the time. He has shown signs of trouble ahead with three recent starts allowing four or more runs. He has allowed elevated hit counts in several recent outings with July so far being his worst month in most categories by a significant margin. Manoah was a 2019 1st round pick and still has great potential but with the elevated pricing Toronto’s offense commands, he isn’t worth the cost right now as really a slightly above average starter disguised as an ace thanks to his 11 wins and low ERA. Toronto has a lot of games remaining with Tampa Bay and New York and will play 16 of 22 on the road in the heart of August as the current grip on a wild card spot could loosen for the Blue Jays with Manoah numbers also likely to deteriorate. 

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2022 Nevada Wolf Pack Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

Nevada Wolf Pack2021-22 Season Record 8-5 (5-3 MWC West) - 8-5-0 ATS - 9-4-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 2Defense - 4OverviewTalk about being thrown into the fire. First year head coach Ken Wilson, who was in the program for 21 years, inherits a team that was the most experienced in the country heading into last season with 22 returning starters to the least experienced coming into 2022 with only six starters back. Former head coach Scott Norvell left for Colorado St. and it seems as though he knew what was on the horizon in Reno so he took off when he could in a lateral coaching move. Nevada has had four straight winning seasons including an 8-5 record last season that included three losses by two points apiece and those eight wins are tied for the most since 2010 when the Wolf Pack went 13-1 and finished No. 11 in the AP Poll, the only time they have been ranked to end a season. This year looks to be a rebuild from the start especially with an incoming recruiting class ranked No. 116. OffenseThe Nevada offense did a lot of good things last season as they were No. 32 in total offense, No. 5 in passing offense and No. 15 in scoring offense but now it is basically starting over. Two starters are back, the running back and an offensive lineman and every other position will be up for grabs. Quarterback Carson Strong threw for 4,175 yards with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions and will be impossible to replace and it will likely be either Shane Illingworth from Oklahoma St. or Nate Cox who threw only 43 passed last season for the Wolf Pack. The top five pass catchers are all gone and while there is some experience leftover, transfers will likely be called on to fill in. Running back Toa Taua led an anemic running game with 704 yards but popped with 5.1 ypc and was a great receiver out of the backfield. The offensive line will be filled with transfers as well. DefenseThe defense is not in as bad of shape but it is close. They were not asked to do much last season because of the potent offense and the Wolf Pack finished No. 83 in total defense and No. 51 in scoring defense, just enough to let the offense do its thing. Now it will be up to this side to try and lead the team until the offense can find its rhythm, it that will be even possible. Nevada was solid against the pass as it was No. 35 in passing efficiency defense which was No. 3 in the conference and this is the most experienced of the three levels which is a positive in the MWC. The safeties are fine and cornerback Darion Warren-Green is a great get from Michigan. The best returning player is defensive tackle Dom Peterson who is a fifth year starter with 150 tackles, 41.5 for loss, and 22 sacks. The rest of the line has to step up while the linebacking corps will be brand new. 2022 Season OutlookA fifth straight winning season is unlikely but Wilson was around these parts for a while from 1989-2012 and gained great experience at Washington St. and Oregon for the last decade so while it will take time, he can succeed here. The fact he got 12 transfers to come to Nevada, the ninth most in the country, definitely says something and he can build on that moving forward. The schedule is in the favor of the Wolf Pack where they could steal a couple wins and remain competitive at home. They open at New Mexico St. and then host Texas St. and Incarnate Word so a 3-0 start would not be impossible and then they close out the nonconference slate at Iowa. There are three winnable MWC road games and they get Boise. St., Fresno St. and Diego St. all at home. The O/U win total is 5 and it is unplayable either way with no experience but a doable schedule to make up for it. 

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2022 Nebraska Cornhuskers Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

Nebraska Cornhuskers2021-22 Season Record 3-9 (1-8 Big 10 West) - 6-5-1 ATS - 6-5-1 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 7Defense - 5OverviewIt has been a forgettable run for the once proud Nebraska football program as it has had five straight losing seasons, the last four under current head coach Scott Frost. Prior to that, the Huskers had a run of nine straight regular seasons of .500 or better under Bo Pelini and Mike Riley and while the real glory days are long gone, Frost was supposed to be the guy to get them back on top but it has been just the opposite. They have gone 13-31 in the Big Ten during this five-season slide and while the 3-9 record last season was the worst of them all, it was arguably the best of them all as far as competitiveness. All nine losses were by single digits and by an average of 6.2 ppg so Nebraska was painfully close to putting together a winning season. Despite a returning production ranking of No. 102 and just 12 returning starters, expectations are high in Lincoln for a turnaround. OffenseAdrian Martinez seemed like he was at Nebraska forever as he was a four-year starter who compiled 10,792 all purposes yards which is the most in program history and he is now a graduate transfer at Kansas St. but the offense that ranked No. 24 last season should be just fine. The Huskers managed only 27.9 ppg which was No. 71 in the country as they were not clutch when it counted. Taking over at quarterback will be Casey Thompson who transferred in from Texas following a great season where he threw for 2,113 yards with 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. The top two receivers are gone and while there are a few holdovers, three solid transfers enter the picture. The running game was above average thanks to Martinez so now it will be a traditional back that steps up behind an offensive line that has three starters back and will improve from a subpar 2021.  DefenseThe defense finished No. 50 overall and No. 38 in scoring and will be plugging in new players but there is a lot of experience and transfer help to make this a better unit. The Huskers were unable to take the ball away as their 13 turnovers were tied for No. 112 in the country and that will get better as will getting to the quarterback after registering only 20 sacks, tied for No. 98 in the nation. The sacks should spike as the Huskers welcome defensive end Ochaun Mathis where he started 34 games at TCU and had 15.5 sacks. The defensive front did ok in stopping the run and that should also get better especially with Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich at linebacker, the two top tackling leaders, where they combined for 208 stops as a sophomore and freshman respectively. The secondary is going to be relatively new but experienced with plenty of transfer help behind corner Quinton Newsome. 2022 Season OutlookThis could be the final season for Frost to make something happen after taking a pay cut for another shot of rejuvenating this downward trend. He hired five new assistant coaches and has relieved himself from the play calling duties which indicates that even he knows this is the last gasp. The pieces are in place with a slew of transfers to make this a big year and reverse all of those close losses from last season. The schedule is never easy in the Big Ten but it does not get better than this. The Huskers open in Ireland against Northwestern and then are home for four straight games that includes a doozy against formal rival Oklahoma. Four conference road games include Michigan and Iowa but they miss Ohio St., Michigan St. and Penn St. altogether. The O/U win total is set at 7.5 which is big after a three-win season but getting over that is doable as a 5-1 start can get them there. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

The Saturday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians at 1:10 PM ET. Corey Kluber takes the ball for the Rays to pitch against Zach Plesac for the Guardians. Tampa Bay is a -120 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The New York Yankees play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 2:05 PM ET. The Yankees tap Nestor Cortes in their starting rotation to battle the Royals’ Jonathan Heasley. New York is a -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Detroit Tigers at 3:07 PM ET. Ross Stripling takes the mound for the Blue Jays to duel against Drew Hutchison for the Tigers. Toronto is a -265 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers visit Boston to play the Red Sox in the opening game of a doubleheader on FS1 at 4:10 PM ET. The Brewers tap Eric Lauer as their starting pitcher to face the Red Sox’s Nick Pivetta. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 10. The New York Mets travel to Miami to play the Marlins at 6:10 PM ET. Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for the Mets against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Marlins. The Cincinnati Reds host the Seattle Mariners at 7:10 PM ET. The Astros tap Framber Valdez to pitch against the Mariners’ Chris Flexen. Houston is a -195 money line favorite at Caesars with a total of 8. Four games throw out the first pitch at 7:15 PM ET, with the first three games part of Fox’s regional coverage. San Diego plays at home against Minnesota, with Joe Musgrove pitching for the Padres against Sonny Gray for the Twins. The Padres are a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Philadelphia visits Pittsburgh with the Phillies sending Ranger Suarez to the mound to pitch against the Pirates’ Mitch Keller. The Phillies are a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. St. Louis plays at Washington with Dakota Hudson pitching for the Cardinals against Erick Fedde for the Nationals. The Cardinals are a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The fourth MLB game beginning at 7:15 PM ET has the Chicago White Sox hosting the Oakland A’s. The White Sox turn to Johnny Cueto to pitch against the A’s Paul Blackburn. Chicago is a -175 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:20 PM ET. Ian Anderson takes the hill for the Braves to pitch against Corbin Martin for the Diamondbacks. Atlanta is a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:10 PM ET. The Dodgers tap Clayton Kershaw to duel against the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland. Los Angeles is a -230 money line road favorite with a total of 11.5. The San Francisco Giants are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 9:05 PM ET. Jakob Junis takes the mound for the Giants to pitch against Drew Smyly for the Cubs. San Francisco is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Angels host the Texas Rangers in the nightcap on FS1 at 9:07 PM ET. The Angels pitch Chase Silseth against the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. Los Angeles is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 8.Week 8 in the Canadian Football League continues with the Calgary Stampeders playing at home against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Blue Bombers won for the seventh-straight time to start the season in a 24-10 victory at Edmonton as a 7.5-point favorite last Friday. The Stampeders had their four-game winning streak to start the year end with a 26-19 loss on the road against this Winnipeg team as a 3-point underdog on July 15th. Winnipeg is a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5.

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MLB: Most/Least Profitable (Through July)

by Will Rogers

Friday, Jul 29, 2022

We’re almost through July, so let’s check on which teams have been the most profitable to bet on (and which have burned bettors the most).  Most Profitable (All numbers accurate as of 7/29) Baltimore (+20.8 units) - Not only have the Orioles been the best team to bet during the 2022 MLB season, but they have a winning record! This despite having a payroll (excluding money still owed to Chris Davis) that is lower than Max Scherzer’s 2022 salary! Where have the O’s excelled most? Well, at home, where they are up 16.7 units. They’ve also lost just five times in the last 20 games. Oddsmakers have had them favored in only 16 games all season, but that could start to change. They’ve actually been an underdog of +200 or more 18 times, a greater number than how many times they’ve been favored. Take those games away (they are 5-13) and they are even more profitable. Except when they face the Yankees on the road, Baltimore isn’t likely to be +200 or higher on the money line many more times. NY Mets (+16.7) - Last August was when the Mets tanked and ceded the NL East to the eventual World Series Champion Braves. It remains to be seen if NY can capture the pennant this season, but I do expect at least a playoff berth. Unlike Baltimore, the Mets haven’t been very profitable as underdogs, but they are 49-23 as favorites (+15.3), which accounts for most of the profitability. They are also 28-12 vs. the rest of the division. The fact the Mets are 9-1 in games decided in extra innings shows there’s been a little bit of luck going their way. NY Yankees (+15.3) - The best team in baseball has also turned a nice profit. The Yanks have actually lost money on the road, but are 38-12 at home. They’ve lost money facing National League teams and the Astros, so keep that in mind come the postseason. It’s very impressive that of the 31 games the Yankees have played that were decided by four or more runs, they’ve won 27 of them. You’re almost always going to have to lay a steep price to play the Pinstripes (they’ve only been underdogs in eight games), but so far it would have been worth it to bet them every game. Of course, almost no one bets the same team in every game, so perhaps it’s best to tread lightly?  Houston (+11.4) - The second best team in the American League is also in the top five in profitability. When NOT a -200 or higher favorite, the Astros are up 18.4 units. So maybe just avoid them as big favorites? They just dumped a bunch of units last week in Oakland, twice losing as a -200 favorite. It was the first time the ‘Astros were swept all season. Like the Yankees, the ‘Stros are basically this high on the list because they win a lot. You would have to routinely bet them (almost every game) to make money. Beware the runline as well. They are 18-8 in one-run games and if you’re laying the -1.5 in those games, you’re losing money. (I’ll note the Yankees have 21 one-run wins and only one team has more. That is …)  Seattle (+10.0) - The Mariners have rocketed up the list by virtue of going 17-4 over their last 21 games. No team has more one-run victories than their 23. The difference between them and the Astros/Yankees is that the Mariners have obviously not been favored in the majority of those one-run games. Seattle has been an underdog more times (55) than they have been favored (45). Interestingly, in their last 11 games, Seattle is 7-0 vs. Texas and 0-4 vs. Houston. This would be a Wild Card team were the season to end today. I’m very skeptical they stay in that position. Multiple starters are headed for regression, most notably Marco Gonzales, who has the worst FIP of any qualified starter! Least Profitable  LA Angels (-24.8 units) - YIKES! This club has fallen off the proverbial cliff. Reportedly, the Angels are now willing to listen to offers for Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout’s back condition is said to be “rare.” In other words, there will be no turnaround in Anaheim over the next two months.  Consider this: On May 24th, the Angels’ were 10 games over .500. So since then they are 25 games below. Day games are the only situation where the team has turned a profit and that profit is slight. As an underdog, the record is 8-30.  Washington (-17.1) - This team stinks and the oddsmakers know it, so the value in playing against them blindly is probably gone. It’s a slight profit on the road for the Nationals, but they are a dreadful -17.8 units at home. Against the NL Central and NL West, the Nats are actually profitable. The problem has been division games where they are 8-36 and down 22.1 units!  San Francisco (-16.4) - A far cry from last year when the Giants had the best regular season record and were the most profitable team. Regression has been more severe than expected at the betting window. Losing the first seven games after the All-Star Break certainly did not help. All seven games were on the road though. Now they are back in San Francisco for the next week. The Giants have a winning record at home, but are still money losers there. Take away games where the Giants were favorites of -200 or more and they are eight games below .500 overall. Don’t see them getting back into the postseason. Kansas City (-13.2) - Another team that is just plain bad. The Royals haven’t even scored a single run in their last three games heading into Friday. They are slightly above water the 26 times they’ve been favored on the money line (15-11). But other than that, they basically lost two out of every three games.  Chicago Cubs (-12.0) - Always overrated and typically bad, the Cubs have not been a good team to put your money on in 2022. The confines of Wrigley have not been so friendly as the team is -12.9 units there. They’ve been outscored by a lot on the road, yet are basically break even there. Night games have been unkind (-15.8 units). Division games have gone alright (+3.0 units), but what’s surprising is that they have a better combined record against the Brewers and Cardinals than they do against the Reds and Pirates. 

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2022 NC State Wolfpack Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 29, 2022

NC State Wolfpack2021-22 Season Record 9-3 (6-2 ACC Atlantic) - 7-5-0 ATS - 7-5-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 7Defense - 10OverviewHead coach Dave Doeren took over the reigns at NC State in 2013 and stumbled to a 3-9 record but over the last eight seasons, there has been just one losing record which came in 2019 when the Wolfpack bottomed out late in the season by losing their last six games. They have been to 15 bowl games since 2000 and were eligible last season for the Holiday Bowl but it was cancelled by UCLA because of COVID. However, there have been no major bowls and since 2003, they have never finished a season ranked inside the top 20 and in the history of the program, they have never finished ranked in the top 10. While it has been a steady run, there has been only one double-digit winning season and with what Doeren has put together, this could be the year they clear those hurdles as the schedule sets up well and the Wolfpack are ranked No. 12 in returning production. OffenseThe offense improved slightly from 2020 as they averaged 26 more ypg and finished No. 58 in the country in total offense but did finish No. 32 in scoring offense with 33.1 ppg. The passing game was sensational behind quarterback Devin Leary as the Wolfpack finished No. 19 in passing offense and No. 22 in passing efficiency offense, second best in the ACC. Leary threw for 3,433 yards with 35 touchdowns and just five interceptions and should be just as solid this season. Gone is his leading receiver Emeka Emezie who had 802 yards but Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter combined for 1,152 yards and both are back along with many others. Now, NC State has to get a running game going that was nonexistent and lost its top two backs so someone has to step. Whoever that is will run behind a very solid offensive line that brings back four starters and has a lot of depth. DefenseThe defense was rock solid as it allowed 331.7 ypg which was No. 23 in the nation and improved by over 84 ypg from 2020. The Wolfpack cut down their points allowed by nine ppg and finished No. 19 with 19.7 ppg. They allowed 33.3 ppg in their three losses and two of those were four points combined and now they have 10 starters back led by a linebacking corps that is the best in the conference. Leading tackler with 99 stops Drake Thomas is back, as well as Payton Wilson and Isaiah Moore who were the two top tacklers from 2020 and both missed all or most of last season so this unit is loaded. The defensive line is deep and disruptive that was stout against the run and the front seven finished tied for No. 34 in tackles for loss with 6.5 per game. The secondary was excellent and could be even better with four starters back that finished No. 9 in passing efficiency defense. 2022 Season OutlookNC State will come into the season most likely ranked inside the top 20 and after a likely 4-0 start depending how other top teams do, it could vault into the top 10. Should it start 5-0, the Wolfpack definitely will be in the top 10 as that fifth game comes against Clemson on the road. While it is not a make-or-break year for Doeren, his team is loaded and could be one of the best he has had here and expectations will be high. Overall, the schedule is not horrible as NC State has seven home games that includes two different three-game homestands and while Florida St. and Wake Forest will be difficult games, they should go 7-0 at Carter-Finley Stadium. Besides Clemson, they have Louisville and North Carolina on the road to close out the season. The O/U win total is 8.5 and the over is very attainable as long as upsets are avoided to go along with a big win or two on the road. 

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2022 Navy Midshipmen Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 29, 2022

Navy Midshipmen2021-22 Season Record 4-8 (3-5 American) - 8-4-0 ATS - 5-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 6OverviewNavy has gone 7-15 over the last two seasons which is its worst two-year run since 2001-2002 when it went a combined 2-20 in the last season for head coach Charlie Weatherbie and the first season for head coach Paul Johnson. Johnson completely turned the program around by going 43-14 after that first season before leaving for Georgia Tech and Ken Niumatalolo maintained that success with winning seasons in nine of his first 10 years but times have gotten tough with a 21-27 record from 2018-2021. The Midshipmen have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball over this stretch but have faced a brutal schedule over the last two years and last season could have been better as four of eight losses came by one possession although three of the four victories came by four points or less so it does go both ways. This is a big swing season for Niumatalolo who is feeling some heat. OffenseNavy struggled mightily on offense as it finished No. 126 overall and No. 118 in scoring and it was the second straight season where it averaged 285 total yards or less. The rushing game has been the forefront for years and while Navy finished No. 7 in the country with 225.9 rushing ypg, that was deceiving. It averaged only 4.0 ypc and in comparison, it averaged 6.1 ypc during its 11-2 season in 2019. Now it is a complete turnover of running backs as Isaac Ruoss, Carlinos Acie and James Harris II have moved on after running for 1,594 yards and the leading returning rusher is quarterback Tai Lavatai who gained 371 yards but on just 2.2 ypc. The Midshipmen will be smaller but quicker in the backfield and it will be up to the offensive line to improve after injuries really hurt the unit last season but because of that, there is a ton of experience with the interior the biggest question. DefenseThe defense helped keep games competitive as the Midshipmen finished No. 40 in total defense but No. 84 in scoring defense as too many big plays were allowed at the wrong time. A big problem was that Navy took the ball over only 13 times which was tied for No. 102 in the nation so gaining more turnovers is vital which of course helps any defense. Additionally, Navy registered only 16 sacks which was tied for No. 118 so these two intangibles need to get better quickly. Three of the top four tacklers are gone with the biggest losses coming at linebacker with Diego Fagot and Johnny Hodges taking 144 tackles out of the mix but John Marshall and Tyler Fletcher return after 101 tackles so it will not be a huge drop off and they need to get into the backfield. The cornerback situation is unsettled which is a really giant concern after finishing No. 111 in passing efficiency defense. 2022 Season OutlookNiumatalolo turned this team around in 2019 following a 3-10 season in 2018 so getting back on track is a good possibly especially after facing the third hardest schedule in the country. The bad news is that it will be just as tough this season as their opponents went 100-52 with only two teams that had losing records and one of those is from the FCS. The Midshipmen open with a pair of home games against Delaware, which is an important first game to see where they stand before hosting Memphis is the AAC opener. Three of the next four games are on the road and all against teams projected for winning records before a pair of home games. Navy spends all of November away from home against Cincinnati, Notre Dame, UCF and Army. The O/U win total is set at 4.5 and with a schedule set up like this, that is going to be a very tough number to surpass unless the luck goes their way. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 29, 2022

The Friday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. New York visits Miami with Chris Bassitt taking the ball for the Mets to pitch against Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins. The Mets are a -130 money line road favorite with the total set at 7 (all odds from DraftKings). Cincinnati plays at home against Baltimore, with the Reds turning to Mike Minor in their starting rotation to pitch against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Orioles. Three MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Philadelphia travels to Pittsburgh with Bailey Falter taking the hill for the Phillies to go against Jose Quintana for the Pirates. The Phillies are a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. St. Louis is at Washington, with the Cardinals tapping Miles Mikolas to take the mound against the Nationals’ Anibal Sanchez. The Cardinals are a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 9. New York plays at home against Kansas City with Gerrit Cole on the hill for the Yankees against Kris Bubic for the Royals. The Yankees are a -345 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Detroit is at Toronto on Apple TV at 7:07 PM ET, with the Tigers turning to Bryan Garcia, who got called up from the minor leagues yesterday to pitch against the Blue Jays’ Alek Manoah. Two MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Milwaukee visits Boston with Brandon Woodruff taking the ball for the Brewers to pitch against Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. The Brewers are a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Cleveland plays at Tampa Bay with the Guardians using Shane Bieber as their starting pitcher against the Rays’ Jeffrey Springs. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 6.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:20 PM ET. Kyle Wright takes the hill for the Braves to duel against Madison Bumgarner for the Diamondbacks. Atlanta is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Oakland, with the White Sox turning to Lance Lynn to pitch against the A’s James Kaprielian. The White Sox are a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston hosts Seattle with Justin Verlander on the mound for the Astros to pitch against Robbie Ray for the Mariners. The Astros are a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET. The Dodgers tap Julio Urias to take the hill against the Rockies’ Chad Kuhl. Los Angeles is a -225 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Texas Rangers at 9:38 PM ET. Patrick Sandoval takes the mound for the Angels to battle against Martin Perez for the Rangers. Los Angeles is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Minnesota Twins at 9:40 PM ET. The Padres tap Blake Snell to pitch against the Twins’ Joe Ryan. San Diego is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants host the Chicago Cubs in the night cap on Apple TV at 10:15 PM ET. Alex Cobb is on the hill for the Giants to pitch against Marcus Stroman for the Cubs. San Francisco is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Week 8 in the Canadian Football League continues with the British Columbia Lions playing in Saskatchewan against the Roughriders on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Lions won for the fourth time in their first five games this season with their 17-12 victory against Hamilton as a 9.5-point favorite on July 21st. The Roughriders are on a two-game losing streak after getting upset at home to Toronto, 31-21, as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. British Columbia is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 49.5. 

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