Articles

CONCACAF Gold Cup Preview: USA vs Mexico - 08/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Aug 01, 2021

Sunday CONCACAF Gold Cup Finals Preview: Mexico versus the USA.The knockout stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup concludes on Sunday with the championship match between Mexico and the United States. The game is on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is the site.Mexico advanced to the finals with their 2-1 victory against Canada in the semifinals on Thursday. Orbelin Pineda got El Tri on the scoreboard in the second minute of stoppage time in the first half. Les Rouges leveled the score in the 12th minute into the second half with Tajon Buchanan’s goal. The match appeared destined for a 30-minute extra period before Hector Herrera scored the dramatic game-winning goal in the ninth minute of stoppage time in the second half. El Tri reached the semifinals with a 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. Rogelio Funes Mori opened the scoring with a goal in the 26th minute. Jonathan dos Santos added a second goal five minutes later. Pineda gave Mexico their final goal seven minutes later. Manager Gerardo Martino’s group won Group B with a 1-0 victory against El Salvador in their final group stage match. Mexico opened their defense of the 2019 Gold Cup title with a 0-0 draw with Trinidad and Tobago. They followed that up with a 3-0 victory against Guadeloupe. El Tri has scored nine goals and had not conceded a goal in their first four matches before Canada blemished their perfect defensive record on Thursday. Martino has assembled most of the nation’s top players to compete in this event. The notable exceptions on the roster were forwards Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Raul Jimenez, and goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa. Mexico lost for Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano for the tournament after incurring a head injury in the opening match against Trinidad and Tobago. Mexico is led by Porto forward Jesus Corona, Atletico Madrid midfielder Hector Herrera, and Ajax defender Edson Alvarez. El Tri is ranked 11th in the world by FIFA. The ELO ratings place them 15th. The US Men’s National Team advanced to the finals with their victory against Qatar in their semifinal match on Thursday. Gyasi Yardes scored the lone goal for the Americans in the 86th minute. The Stars and Stripes beat Jamaica, 1-0, in the quarterfinals last Sunday. That match was deadlocked until the 83rd minute when Matthew Hope scored the lone goal for the Americans. The Yanks began the tournament with a 1-0 win against Haiti before a 6-1 thumping against Martinique in their second match. They got their lone goal from Shaquell Moore in the first minute against Canada to give the USMNT their third victory in their three group stage matches. The USMNT has scored ten times and conceded only one goal. Team USA claimed the CONCACAF Nations League title last month with a 3-2 victory in extra time against Mexico. This rematch offers the Stars and Stripes the opportunity to win the Gold Cup for the eighth time after last winning the first place trophy in 2017. They finished in second place to Mexico in the 2019 Gold Cup. Manager Gregg Berhalter is testing his B team at this event, with many of the players that lifted the trophy last month now training with their professional teams. Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic, Borussia Dortmund’s Giovanni Reyna, Werner Bremen’s Josh Sargent, and Manchester City’s Zack Steffan did not compete. Nineteen of the 23 players on Berhalter’s roster play on an MLS squad, led by Orlando City striker Daryl Dike. The Yanks are on a 13-1-1 run in their last 15 matches. They have not lost on home soil since an upset loss to Venezuela in a friendly on June 9th, 2019. In their most recent 14 games in the United States, the USMNT has scored 50 goals and has conceded only five times, with ten clean sheets. FIFA ranks the USA at 20th in the world. The ELO ratings place them 22nd. MGM lists Mexico as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 08/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Aug 01, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in MLB and the CONCACAF Gold Cup.Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Two games start at 1:05 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at Pittsburgh to conclude their three-game series. The Phillies pitch Kyle Gibson in his debut with the team after he was acquired at the trade deadline from the Texas Rangers. The Pirates pitch Mitch Keller. Philadelphia is a -145 money line road favorite with the total set at 9 (all MLB odds from DraftKings). Washington hosts the Chicago Cubs in the final game of their three-game series. Erick Fedde pitches for the Nationals against the Adbert Alzolay of the Cubs. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Toronto is at home against Kansas City at 1:07 PM ET. The Royals pitch Brad Keller against a Blue Hays starting pitcher yet to be determined. Toronto is a -280 money line favorite with a total of 10.Three games start at 1:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees play at Miami in the final game of their three-game series. Jordan Montgomery pitches for the Yankees against a Marlins pitcher yet to be named. New York is a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The New York Mets are at home against Cincinnati in the third game of their three-game series. The Mets pitch Marcus Stroman against the Reds’ Vladimir Gutierrez. Detroit hosts Baltimore in the final game of their four-game series. The Tigers send out Tyler Alexander to face the Orioles’ Spenser Watkins. Detroit is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 10. Atlanta plays at home against Milwaukee at 1:20 PM ET. Charlie Morton pitches for the Braves against Brett Andersson of the Brewers. Atlanta is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Cleveland on TBS at 2:10 PM ET. The White Sox pitch Dylan Cease against the Indians Cal Quantrill. Chicago is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. St. Louis hosts Minnesota at 2:15 PM ET. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals against Michael Pineda of the Twins. St. Louis is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Seattle concludes their three-game series at Texas at 2:35 PM ET. The Mariners pitch Marcos Gonzales against the Rangers Mike Foltynewicz. Seattle is a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 9.San Francisco plays at home against Houston at 4:05 PM ET. Logan Webb pitches for the Giants against Luis Garcia of the Astros. San Francisco is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against Oakland at 4:07 PM ET. The Angels tap Reid Detmers to make his professional debut against the A’s James Kaprielian. Los Angeles is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 10. Two games start at 4:10 PM ET. San Diego hosts Colorado in the final game of their four-game series. The Padres pitch Chris Paddack against the Rockies Austin Gomber. San Diego is a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Arizona in the third game of their three-game series. Julio Urias pitches for the Dodgers against Caleb Smith of the Diamondbacks. Los Angeles is a -250 money line road favored with a total of 9. Boston plays at Tampa Bay on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Nick Pivetta against the Rays’ Shane McClanahan. Tampa Bay is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup take place on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET. Mexico reached the finals with their 2-1 win against Canada in the semifinals on Thursday. The United States joined them with a 1-0 win against Qatar on Thursday. MGM lists Mexico as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas is the site of the match. 

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Combating Losing Streaks: My Self-Audit Process

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

Losing streaks are inevitable. If a bettor is making one to four bets a day on average (and more during football and college basketball season), then there are going to be some dry stretches over those 1000 or so tickets. The key to long-term betting success is not avoiding losing streaks as much as how to handle losing streak. First and foremost, do no harm. Don’t chase bad money with good money. Now is the time to remain ever-vigilant in maintaining your standards regarding what is a worthwhile situation for investment and what is not. Stay consistent. For me, if I am not handicapping well, it is because I have lost the balance between my qualitative analysis and my handicapping fundamentals. By qualitative analysis, I mean my understanding and appreciation of what is going on between the two teams in question. Do I have the right take on a team being undervalued or overvalued? Am I missing information regarding injuries? Are there changes in tactics that are impacting things? Have I fallen into the trap of accepting conventional wisdom?By handicapping fundamentals, I mean remaining sensitive to the betting situation independent of the particulars of the two teams in question. Am I investing in situations that I would otherwise draw red flags? Am I ignoring situations that I would otherwise jump on? I am betting on too many plays? Am I not getting enough action out there?When I am most successful, the decisions I am making on a daily basis take into account the specifics of the two teams in question and then balancing those thoughts with the handicapper situational perspective independent from the two teams in question. When the qualitative assessments and handicapper instincts are in unison, that should lead to strong plays. If those two perspectives are in conflict, I should be passing. When the picture is muddier, I should be weighing evidence and making decisions to play or pass. After losses, I conduct autopsies to discern if I made a judgment mistake. If the losses coincide with ignoring some of the handicapping fundamentals I have accrued over the years, then it is a pretty easy fix to get back to prioritizing those values. If the autopsy exposes that I did not know as much about the issues that would decide the game, then I need to get in the trenches and learn more about the teams. Sometimes that is simply a function of harder work. But sometimes this work requires the difficult decision that the sources I am leaning on are not making a winning difference. That requires me to dump sources of information in the search for better analysis to help inform my conclusions. More often than not, if I get stuck in a losing streak in a sport, it is because the research I conduct is not providing enough actionable information. As the years have gone by, I rely less and less on ESPN (TV and their print/web) sources to help inform my thoughts. 538.com has all but dropped off the planet for me. In an ideal world, I could read it all. In practice, I need to make choices in a 24-hour day. Making better choices as to where I get my supporting research is often the solution to losing streaks. But given all this, sometimes the best response to a losing streak is not change anything. Sometimes the breaks don’t go our way. It is called bad luck. It happens. Sometimes well-informed choices backed by sound handicapping fundamentals do not lead to a winning ticket. Successfully identifying those situations — and then not changing course — is the best route to long-term success. The most important quality to embrace when conducting a self-audit is brutal honesty. Perhaps the choices are bad? Or perhaps the knowledge of the teams is simply rudimentary. But if conducting an autopsy of past losses leads to the conclusion that the choice was sound and the handicapping of the situation was spot-on, then perhaps the best conclusion is to simply accept that we can’t win them all. And regarding the losing streak, this too shall pass.Best of luck — Frank.

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Starting Pitcher Observations from July

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

What started as a hot month for TDG in baseball carried through until the final few days of July where we have gotten stuck behind some teams that hit below our expectations. Bad days at the plate will happen. If we continue to identify starting pitchers of value opposing starting pitchers with red flags, we should see good results.Our July Game of the Month was on Saturday, the 31st, on the Milwaukee Brewers. Brandon Woodruff had only allowed one run through five innings before getting in trouble in the top of the sixth with Atlanta scoring two more runs. Yet it was the Brewers' offense that was the bigger disappointment as they managed to score only once against Braves’ rookie starting pitcher Kyle Muller. The Milwaukee bullpen then gave up another five runs in an 8-1 loss. Woodruff will remain on our radar despite the setback. Woodruff entered the game with a 7-5 record with a sparkling 2.14 era and a 0.84 whip. The right-hander was striking out 30.4% of the batters has faced due to a nasty combination of a curveball and changeup that keeps batters chasing. In his previous start against the White Sox last Sunday, he induced 22 swinging strikes with 45% of his pitches resulting in a called-strike or a swinging strike. He combines his elite strikeout skills with a ground ball rate of the balls he allows into play of 45.6% before the start against the Braves. Woodruff’s hard-hit rate of the balls allowed into play of 25% is a career-best. Woodruff had been even better when pitching on the road where he has a 1.96 era and a 0.72 whip in ten starts. Milwaukee had won eleven of their last twelve games when Woodruff is pitching in a game where the oddsmakers install the over/under at 9 or 9.5. He should be fine. We will monitor Eduardo Rodriguez closely after getting burned with him in our American League Total of the Month on Thursday. With hindsight, perhaps Rodriguez was rusty after only pitching one inning in his previous start due to a migraine headache. Reports coming out of Boston is that he felt fine. Yet he struggled in the opening frame against Toronto before leaving that game on Thursday, July 29th, after allowing six runs in 3 1/3 innings. We thought the 5.23 era and 1.38 whip he had at the time was sending the wrong message to bettors. The left-hander did not pitch last year due to COVID, and he started slowly in spring training. Yet he was striking out 27.4% of the batters he faces while walking just 5.8% of the batters he had faced before that final start of the month. The hard-hit rate of the balls he was allowing into play of 27.8% is the second-lowest in his career. In his four previous starts, Rodriguez had a 2.15 era and a 1.08 whip as he appeared to have found his stride. Opponents were hitting just .209 against him this month. He had struck out 20 batters and walked five in his 17 2/3 innings in July. If his start against the Blue Jays was just one of those things after not pitching much, there could be quite a bit of value with him in the next two months (and playoffs).We looked poised to win our FS1 Game of the Month on Saturday, July 24th, in part because of the value we identified in Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. He allowed only two runs in 7 2/3 innings of work. Yet the Boston bullpen allowed four runs in the eighth inning and failed to rally in the bottom of the ninth inning in a 4-3 loss. Eovaldi began the game with a 9-5 record with a 3.57 era and a 1.20 whip in 19 starts this year. The right-hander had a 2.55 era and a 1.01 whip in his previous four starts which did not include the scoreless inning he pitched against the National League in the All-Star game. Over those 24 2/3 innings, he had struck out 28 batters and walked just two. He is combining his elite strikeout-to-walk ratios with a hard-hit rate of the balls he is allowing into play of 26.3% which is the lowest mark in his last nine seasons. Some tough luck results. Yet we begin August on a 39 of 51 (76%) MLB run. Good luck - TDG.

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The Underlying Greatness of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s NBA Title Run

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

Giannis Antetokounmpo deserved to win the Most Valuable Player award of the NBA finals. He put up incredible offensive numbers. He averaged 35.2 points per game, rebounded 13.7 boards per game, and added 5.0 assists per game in their triumph against the Phoenix Suns in six games. For the entire postseason, Antetokounmpo averaged 30.2 points per game, 12.8 rebounds per game, and 5.1 assists per game. Antetokounmpo was a force on the defensive end of the court as a rim protector and defender throughout the playoffs. He took away the Suns’ Deandre Ayton in the finals as that series moved on. Yet perhaps the more impressive aspects to Antetokounmpo’s first NBA title go beyond those numbers. For starters, the fact that Antetokounmpo evened played in the NBA finals was extraordinary. When he hyperextended his knee in the Eastern Conference finals, his ability to even compete for a championship looked in doubt. He was questionable up until tip-off for Game 1 of the finals against Phoenix. But not only was he able to play, but he also seemed to have no ill effects with that knee injury. The physical and mental conditioning he went through to prepare to play through that injury was incredible. Antetokounmpo worked through a mental battle with his free-throw shooting. He lost his confidence at the free-throw line somewhere in the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Brooklyn Nets. After making 67.5% of his free throws in the opening round against Miami, he made only 6 of 19 free throws in the first three games against the Nets. Then came the jeering from fans and his taking all ten seconds at the line as his battle with what the golfers call the yips was for all to see. Antetokounmpo missed more than half his free throw attempts in both the Brooklyn and Atlanta Hawks series in the Eastern Conference finals. Removing Antetokounmpo from the game in clutch situations became a topic of conversation. Yet he worked through the problem. Free throw shooting has never been the strength of his game, yet he recovered to shoot 62% from the charity stripe on his 85 free throw attempts in the NBA finals. In the Game 6 clincher, Antetokounmpo nailed 17 of his 19 free throw attempts. His success over this mental battle was critical in leading his team to a championship. Antetokounmpo led his team to a title by accepting his limitations. After struggling with his 3-point shooting despite defenses begging for him to take open 3s, he changed his game and shot fewer 3s. After going 1 of 8 from 3-point land in Game 4 of the Brooklyn series, he does not even attempt a 3-point shot two games later in a critical Game 6 when they are down 3-2 in the series. In his ten games against Atlanta and Phoenix, only once does he attempt more than three shots from 3-point land. Antetokounmpo also accepted not being the primary ball-handler in crunch time as the playoffs went on with Kris Middleton having success making key shots. Antetokounmpo’s offensive numbers and outstanding play on defense made him the obvious choice for the NBA finals MVP. Yet what may have been more impressive during this championship run was his perseverance, his success in confronting adversity, and his growth as a player by accepting his limitations. These are all qualities that will serve him quite well as his career continues to progress.Good luck - TDG.

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Someone, Please Kill the “Mike Budenholzer Won’t Make Adjustments” Narrative.

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

OK, I’ll do it. The notion that Mike Budenholzer lacks the wherewithal to make adjustments on the fly or from game to game in the NBA playoffs was always a tired and lazy criticism. It is the American pastime to second-guess coaching decisions — it is the sports equivalent of the joy audience members have in ridiculing the bad singer on American Idol or the craven power-hungry losers on Survivor. The programming serves the self-satisfying ego of the viewer by offering a few fleeting moments of superiority. The same dynamic works in sports with sports radio, the 24-Hour Hot Take TV Industry, and much of the color commentary in-game focused on the mistakes made by the coaches and players. And when the drive to feel superior to someone on TV can combine with the beehive mentality of jumping on an establishing bandwagon for some good ole confirmation bias feedback loops, the makings of conventional wisdom form. It is not uncommon for this conventional wisdom to be flat wrong that is beside the point. Flattering the ego of the individual presenting the Hot Take is the medium and the message. I don’t know how good of a basketball coach Mike Budenholzer is. I am not qualified to assess his tactical decisions. I also lack the inside knowledge regarding what his realistic options were at hand when a chance in tactics was perhaps needed. But I did take careful notes of the adjustments he made in the 2021 postseason which ultimately led to his Milwaukee Bucks winning the NBA title. I’ll identify a few.(1) Played his best players for more minutes in the playoffs. A common criticism Budenholzer received during the NBA playoffs in the bubble last year was that he was not playing his Big Two of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton's higher minutes. In Games One-Three of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against Miami, Antetokounmpo averaged 37.9 minutes per game before getting injured in Game Four which completed the Heat’s four-game sweep. Middleton averaged 39.2 minutes per game in those four games. This critique is always troublesome for outsiders who lack the inside knowledge regarding how comfortable the player is in playing extended minutes. Interestingly, Budenholzer appeared to give Antetokounmpo the green light to take himself out of the game in this postseason. Perhaps that was seen as a necessity since Antetokoumpo was playing through injuries? Despite acquiring Jrue Holiday in the offseason to give his team a Big Three, Budenholzer did play those stars for longer periods in this postseason. Antetokounmpo averaged 40 minutes per game in the Brooklyn Nets series before average 39.8 minutes per game in the NBA Finals. Middleton averaged 42.5 minutes per game in the NBA Finals. Holiday averaged 41.7 minutes per game in the Finals. Predictably, I recall seeing some who criticized Budenholzer for not playing his stars enough last postseason now blame him for overworking his Big Three in these playoffs. Once the conclusion is determined (Budenholzer Bad!), the most important thing for some becomes confirming one’s prior assumptions. (2) Break the Giannis defensive wall by putting the ball in Middleton’s hands. Much was made of the defensive strategy that the Miami Heat deployed last year where they positioned three or four players into a wall-like formation to take away Antetokounmpo’s driving ability. In theory, the Bucks “adjustment” is simply for Antetokounmpo to drive-and-dish to an open shooter behind the arc to punish the tactic with 3-pointers — but the shooters need to make shots. It is hard to blame Budenholzer for shots not falling. However, this might be an offensive strategy that works better during the regular season rather than during the pressure of playoff basketball (see the James Harden Houston Rockets). Budenholzer’s adjustment in the playoffs this season was to take the ball out of Antetokounmpo’s hands as the primary ball-handler and let Middleton dictate the offense. Not only did Middleton thrive in this role with clutch baskets, but it allowed Antetokounmpo to crash the glass for second-chance scoring opportunities. (3) Pairing Bobby Portis with Antetokounmpo. Budenholzer did this early in the playoffs but got away from him in the Nets series since Portis was a liability on defense. But after falling behind 0-2 to the Suns in the NBA Finals, Coach Bud got back to getting Portis on the court with the Greek Freak. Portis was a three-point shooting threat that Phoenix had to respect. As opposed to when Brook Lopez or P.J. Tucker is on the court when Budenholzer could give Antetokounmpo stretches of the game where he was surrounded by four shooters to create more space for him to drive to the hole. When coaches like Ty Lue make elementary adjustments like this, they are lauded as geniuses. (4) Pick-and-roll defensive subtleties. It seemed like it was June of 2021 when many in the analytics community were introduced to the concept of drop coverage defense against pick-and-rolls. Rather than engage in a full-on switch to combat the offensive team’s pick, drop coverage has the switching defender accept the new defensive assignment but play off the ball. This move temporarily takes away a driving lane or a cut by the picker while giving time for a potential switch-back. But the drop does give space to the ball handler for an open jump shot. Chris Paul punished this tactic in the opening game of the Finals with his great mid-range game. It was a fascinating development to watch many in the analytics community calling the 2-point midrange shot the worst shot in basketball now blasting Budenholzer for a defensive tactic that lulled the opposition into taking this very shot. OK, whatever. Brook Lopez is an outstanding defensive player on drop coverage. Rather than completely abandoning this defense, the Bucks had Lopez just not drop back so much and play a step or two closer to the potential CP3 jumper to offer more resistance — and hand closer to the face. Paul was never as effective on these shots the rest of the series. (5) Deploy Holiday to start defending Paul in the backcourt. A question the Bucks’ brain trust had entering the NBA Finals regarded how to use Holiday as their best on-the-ball defender. Should he draw the assignment against Paul or Devin Booker? In Game One, Holiday defended Booker — and Paul had his big game. In Game Two, not only did Budenholzer switch assignments, but he had Holiday begin his defensive assault on CP3 as soon as he got the ball in the backcourt — forcing the veteran to exert more energy just to get into their half-court offense. Within three games of this tactic, Michael Wilbon was reduced to making excuses for his self-proclaimed best friend regarding a secret injury that we must not know about. These adjustments are just from my notes. I am sure there is more than those with a more sophisticated knowledge of the game appreciated. But coaches should not necessarily be judged on the adjustments they make. Sometimes the best tactical decision is to resist the urge to abandon ship on the strategies that have succeeded in the past. And every adjustment comes with a tradeoff. The Bucks led the league in defensive free throw rate in the regular season and the playoffs. That was not an accident. It was by design. Drop coverage on pick-and-rolls helps to lower foul rates since it is disincentives the player with the ball to drive the lane. Shooting midrange jump shots are less likely to draw fouls. And when your team is so dependent on Antetokounmpo, perhaps ensuring he does not get into foul trouble is a smart tactic? I don’t know if drop coverage on pick-and-rolls is better than switching with tight coverage or even not switching and fighting through the pick. I do know that if Wilbon or any of the other ankle-biters on the bandwagon want to criticize a tactic, they should at least engage the argument regarding why the tradeoff from the adjustment does not make things worse. Unfortunately, the notion that Budenholzer does not make adjustments will likely continue. Zombie narratives continue even after championships. But, those who continue to make the argument do serve a public good by telling on themselves. Best of luck — Frank.

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These NFL Teams Will Improve, But Will They Go Over?

by Power Sports

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

Based on Vegas win totals, the four teams expected to improve the most this NFL season are: the 49ers, Jaguars, Falcons and Cowboys. My metrics are in line with these assessments by the oddsmakers. But can these teams exceed their rather lofty win projections? Let’s break them down on a case-by-case basis:Jacksonville - Record Last Year: 1-15 | 2021 Win Projection: 6No team is expected to improve more than the Jaguars. This may seem shocking to you. Obviously, improvement is all but guaranteed after a one-win season that allowed the team to land QB Trevor Lawrence in the Draft. But first year head coach Urban Meyer inherits a team that is on a 15-game losing streak and has gone an NFL worst 39-105 straight up over the last nine seasons. Meyer strangely signed Tim Tebow. As far as former Heisman winners go, Lawrence’s game is much better suited to the pros than Tebow’s ever was. It should be noted that the Jags only win last season (27-20 in Week 1 vs. the Colts) came in a game where the defense failed to force a single punt! There is not much talent on hand. But … the last seven coaches who made the transition from college to the pros have improved their NFL team’s win total by an average of four wins in year one. The Jaguars had six one-score losses last year. Lawrence is probably the most talented QB to come out of college since Andrew Luck. The AFC South is not going to be all that good this year. But I still think seven wins is a lot to ask from the 2021 Jaguars. San Francisco - Record Last Year: 6-10 | 2021 Win Projection: 10.5Another team expected to improve by a lot this season is the 49ers. No team dealt with more injuries last season. They had a -11 turnover margin. Now they are expected to be healthier and face the easiest schedule in the league this year. It was just two years ago that they made the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers currently have them as the favorite in 14 of their 17 regular season games! But despite a schedule that’s perceived to be easy, the Niners do play in the NFL’s toughest division where both the Rams and Seahawks are also expected to make the playoffs. Arizona is not “slim pickings” either. In three of Kyle Shanahan’s four years here, the team has won six games or fewer. The health of QB Jimmy Garoppolo is huge. Shanahan is 24-9 straight up with Garoppolo as his starting QB, but just 7-27 SU without him. Rookie Trey Lance now waits in the wings. There is no doubt in my mind that the Niners will improve on last year’s disappointing win total. After all, the same plexiglass principle that predicted they would regress in 2020 says they will improve this year. But getting to 11 wins will be difficult in the ultra-tough NFC West. Dallas - Record Last Year: 6-10 | 2021 Win Projection: 9.5 The Cowboys are expected to improve along the same lines as the 49ers and for many of the same reasons. They too were immensely banged up during the 2020 season. The biggest injury was the one that ended QB Dak Prescott’s season in Week 5. I think Mike McCarthy is a pretty bad coach, but this is a win total I would bet Over. I have Dallas winning the NFC East, which has two weak teams (Giants, Eagles) and last year’s division champ (Washington) isn’t likely to be as strong on the defensive side of the ball. The Cowboys’ offense, when healthy, is among the most efficient in football. They had the worst fumble luck in the entire league last year and much of that can be tied to Prescott being out. Remember that there are 17 regular season games now. Dallas going 10-7 (or better) seems rather reasonable. Atlanta - Record Last Year: 4-12 | 2021 Win Projection: 7.5I also like the Over on this win total. The Falcons were perhaps the unluckiest team in the NFL last season. They led in 13 of 16 games. They led at the half nine times. Only six teams in the last 30 seasons blew more halftime leads. They were 2-8 straight up in games decided by eight points or less and 0-4 in games decided by three or less. They were only outscored by 18 points despite being 4-12. Over the first three quarters of their games, they were +28 in point differential. They blew five leads in the final two minutes. It was a tough schedule. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 4,000+ yards in 10 consecutive seasons. Though he loses WR Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley will step up and Kyle Pitts is one of the top TE prospects EVER. Only 7 of their 17 games this year will be played at home (lose one to London), but the Falcons can absolutely finish second in the NFC South. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jul 31, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in MLB. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket.Three games take place in the afternoon. Toronto hosts Kansas City in the second game in their three-game series. Alek Manoah pitches for the Blue Jays against Mike Minor of the Royals. Toronto is a -210 money line favorite with the total set at 10 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Houston plays at San Francisco at 4:05 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Astros pitch Zack Greinke against the Giants Alex Wood. Houston is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Oakland is at Los Angeles against the Angels on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET in the third game of their four-game series. Cole Irvin pitches for the A’s against Jaime Barria for the Angels. Oakland is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5.Three games start at 6:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees play in Miami in the second game of their three-game series. The Yankees pitch Domingo German against a Marlins starting pitcher yet to be determined. New York is a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Detroit is at home against Baltimore in the third game of their four-game series. Matt Manning pitches for the Tigers against Jonathan Means of the Orioles. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9. Tampa Bay plays at home against Boston in the second game of their three-game series. The Rays pitch Ryan Yarbrough against the Red Sox’s Nathan Eovaldi. Both teams are listed at -110 with a total of 8.Three games start at 7:05 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at Pittsburgh in the second game of their three-game series. Aaron Nola pitches for the Phillies against J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates. Philadelphia is a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Seattle is at Texas in Game 2 of their three-game series. The newly acquired Tyler Anderson pitches for the Mariners against Kyle Gibson of the Rangers. The Chicago Cubs are at Washington in the second game of their three-game series. Kyle Hendricks pitches for the Cubs against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Nationals. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox host Cleveland in the second game of their three-game series. The White Sox pitch Dallas Keuchel against the Indians Triston McKenzie. Chicago is a -170 money line favorite with a total of 9. The New York Mets play at home against Cincinnati in the second game of their three-game series. The Mets pitch the recently acquired Rich Hill against the Reds Wade Miley. New York is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota plays at St. Louis on FS1 at 7:15 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Twins pitch Bailey Ober against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Cardinals. Milwaukee is at Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Brandon Woodruff pitches for the Brewers against Kyle Muller of the Braves. The Brewers are a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Arizona at 8:10 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. Merrill Kelly pitches for the Diamondbacks against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Dodgers after they traded impending starter Josiah Gray to the Washington Nationals in the haul that brought back Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. Los Angeles is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. San Diego is at home against Colorado at 8:40 PM ET in the third game of their four-game series. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres against German Marquez of the Rockies. BetOnline lists San Diego as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 7. 

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NFL Futures Wager: Seattle Seahawks Season Wins

by ASA, Inc.

Friday, Jul 30, 2021

NFC WEST TOTAL WINS BEST BET – Over 9.5 Seattle Seahawks No matter what the circumstances entering the season, Seattle always seems to get to at least 10 wins.  In fact, since Russell Wilson took over at QB in 2012, the Seahawks have failed to win 10 games just ONCE and that was a 9-7 season in 2017.  They have averaged 10.9 wins per season during Wilson’s 9-year run as starting QB.  Seattle won the tough NFC West last year with a 12-4 record and it was no fluke as they led the division in point differential at +88.  The offense will be very good again with Wilson and his playmakers on the outside (Metcalfe & Lockett) who are among the best in the NFC.  They have the ability to outscore teams when the defense comes up short which it did a lot early last season.  The Seahawks scored 30 or more points in 6 of their first 8 games when the defense was playing poorly.  Despite the defense, they were 6-2 in those games.  The defense improved by leaps and bounds in the 2nd half of the season allowing just 15.8 PPG after giving up an average of 30.3 PPG over their first 8 games.  If the defense can pick up where they left off, this team will be very good.  We have them currently favored in 10 games this season and their underdog roles will all be small numbers (most +3 or less).  All of their road games are winnable and the Hawks face 3 of the worst teams in the NFL in non-division play (Jags, Lions, and Texans).  As we mentioned, Seattle and double digit wins have been the norm for almost a decade.  Now with an extra game added in the regular season, we see no reason this team doesn’t get to at last 10 wins again in 2021.    

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 30, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in MLB. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket.The card starts with two games at 7:05 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play at Washington in the first game of their three-game weekend series. The Cubs pitch Trevor Williams against a Nationals pitcher yet to be named with Max Scherzer traded to the San Diego Padres. Chicago is a -130 money line road favorite with the total set at 9. Philadelphia visits Pittsburgh in the first game of a three-game series. Vince Velasquez pitches for the Phillies against Wil Crowe of the Pirates. Philadelphia is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Toronto hosts Kansas City in the opening game of their three-game series. The Blue Jays pitch Ross Stripling against the Royals' David Lynch. Kansas City is a -200 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. Four games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees travel to Miami for the first game of their three-game series. Jameson Taillon pitches for the Yankees against Zach Thompson of the Marlins. New York is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Detroit plays at home against Baltimore in the second game of their four-game series. The Tigers pitch Tarik Skubal against the Orioles Matt Harvey. Detroit is a -150 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Tampa Bay is at home against Boston in the opening game of their three-game series. Josh Fleming pitches for the Rays against Martin Perez of the Red Sox. Boston is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets are at home against Cincinnati in the first game of their three-game series. The Mets see the return of Carlos Carrasco, who faces the Reds’ Sonny Gray. New York is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.Milwaukee travels to Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET for the opening game of their three-game series. Corbin Burnes pitches for the Brewers against Touki Toussaint of the Braves. Milwaukee is a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Seattle visits Texas in the opener of their three-game series at 8:05 PM ET. The Mariners pitch Logan Gilbert against the Rangers Kolby Allard. Seattle is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Cleveland in the first of a three-game series. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox against J.C. Mejia of the Indians. Chicago is a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota travels to St. Louis at 8:15 PM ET to begin a three-game series. The Twins pitch Jose Berrios against the Cardinals Wade LeBlanc. Minnesota is a -125 money line road favorite with the total at 8.5.Oakland plays at Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET in the second game of their four-game series. Chris Bassitt pitches for the A’s against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. Oakland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Arizona at 9:40 PM ET in the opening game of their three-game series. The Dodgers pitch Tony Gonsolin against the Diamondbacks Zac Gallen. Los Angeles is a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. San Francisco is at home at 9:45 PM ET in the first game of their three-game series. Kevin Gausman pitches for the Giants against Framber Valdez of the Astros. San Francisco is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. San Diego is at home against Colorado at 10:10 PM ET in the second game of their four-game series. The Padres pitch Ryan Weathers against the Rockies Jon Gray. San Diego is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.

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CONCACAF Gold Cup Semifinals Preview and Odds - 07/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jul 29, 2021

Thursday CONCACAF Gold Cup: Semifinals Preview.The knockout stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup continues on Thursday with the semifinal matches on FS1.The United States plays Qatar at 7:30 PM ET at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas. The Stars and Stripes beat Jamaica, 1-0, in the quarterfinals last Sunday. That match was deadlocked until the 83rd minute when Matthew Hope scored the lone goal for the Americans.The Yanks began the tournament with a 1-0 win against Haiti before a 6-1 thumping against Martinique in their second match. They got their lone goal from Shaquell Moore in the first minute against Canada to give the USMNT their third victory in their three group stage matches. The USMNT has scored nine times and conceded only one goal. The Stars and Stripes claimed the CONCACAF Nations League title last month with a 3-2 victory in extra time against Mexico. The USMNT won the Gold Cup for the seventh time in 2017. They finished in second place behind Mexico in the 2019 Gold Cup. Manager Gregg Berhalter is testing his B team at this event, with many of the players that lifted the trophy last month now training with their professional teams. Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic, Borussia Dortmund’s Giovanni Reyna, Werner Bremen’s Josh Sargent, and Manchester City’s Zack Steffan will not compete. Nineteen of the 23 players on Berhalter’s roster play on an MLS squad, led by Orlando City striker Daryl Dike. The Yanks are on a 12-1-1 run in their last 14 matches. They have not lost on home soil since an upset loss to Venezuela in a friendly on June 9th, 2019. In their most recent 13 games in the United States, the USMNT has scored 49 goals and has conceded only five times, with nine clean sheets. FIFA ranks the USA at 20th in the world. The ELO ratings place them 22nd. Qatar advanced to the semifinals with a 3-2 victory on Saturday. The Maroon opened the scoring in the fifth minute with Almoez Ali’s goal. Abdulaziz Hatem followed that up with Qatar’s second goal three minutes later. Ali gave the Maroon a 3-0 lead with his penalty kick goal in the 55th minute of the second half. Things then got nervy for Qatar after El Salvador’s Joaquin Rivas scoring twice in five minutes to pull La Selecta to within one goal with 22 minutes left in regulation time. The Maroon claimed first place in Group D with a 2-0 victory against Honduras in their final group stage match. Qatar opened the tournament with a 3-3 draw with Panama. They defeated Grenada, 4-0, in their second group stage match. The Maroon leads the tournament with 12 goals scored. They have conceded goals five times.  Qatar is a guest to participate in this North American tournament as preparation for their squad when they compete and host the 2021 World Cup next November. Most of the roster consists of club-level players in Qatar. Manager Felix Sanchez’s squad is led by forward Akram Afif, who has scored 19 goals in 64 caps for the national team. Forward Hassan Al-Haydos is the all-time leader in caps with 141. The Maroon entered the event with four straight victories from friendlies and World Cup qualifying matches. FIFA ranks Qatar 58th in the world. The ELO ratings place them 45th in the world. MGM lists the USMNT as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.5.Mexico plays Canada in the second semifinal match at 10 PM ET at NRG Stadium in Houston. El Tri advanced from the quarterfinals with a 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. Rogelio Funes Mori opened the scoring with a goal in the 26th minute. Jonathan dos Santos added a second goal five minutes later. Orbelin Pineda gave Mexico their final goal seven minutes later. El Tri won Group B with their 1-0 victory against El Salvador in their final group stage match. Mexico opened their defense of the 2019 Gold Cup title with a 0-0 draw with Trinidad and Tobago. They followed that up with a 3-0 victory against Guadeloupe. El Tri has scored seven goals and has yet to concede a goal in their four matches. Manager Gerardo Martino has assembled most of the nation’s top players to compete in this event. The notable exceptions on the roster were forwards Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and Raul Jimenez, and goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa. Mexico lost for Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano for the tournament after incurring a head injury in the opening match against Trinidad and Tobago. Mexico is led by Porto forward Jesus Corona, Atletico Madrid midfielder Hector Herrera, and Ajax defender Edson Alvarez. El Tri is ranked 11th in the world by FIFA. The ELO ratings place them 15th. Canada advanced to the semifinals with a 2-0 victory against Costa Rica on Sunday. Junior Hoillet got the Canucks on the board with his goal in the 18th minute. Stephan Eustaquio added the second goal in the 68th minute in the second half. Les Rouges opened the tournament with a 4-1 victory against Martinique. They followed that up with a 4-1 win against Haiti. The Canucks have scored ten times in this event while conceding three goals. Canada won the Gold Cup in 2000, and they find themselves amidst a golden generation of talent. Les Rouges had not lost to a team from the CONCACAF region since 2019 before their loss to the Stars and Stripes last week. They entered this event with six straight victories with a 31 to 1 goal margin. Manager John Herman is without two of his best players for this tournament. Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies and Lille’s Jonathan David are training with their professional teams. The Canucks suffered another loss after Turkish Super League star Cyle Larin left the tournament with a muscle injury after the group stage. Canada ranks 70th in the world by FIFA and 41st in the ELO ratings.MGM lists Mexico as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 07/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jul 29, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in MLB and the CONCACAF Gold Cup.Twelve games are on the MLB docket. Seven games take place in the afternoon. Washington plays at Philadelphia at 12:05 PM ET in the opener of their seven-inning doubleheader. After Wednesday’s game got rained out, Max Scherzer is slated to pitch for the Nationals against Vince Velasquez of the Phillies. The New York Mets are at home against Atlanta at 12:10 PM ET in the getaway game of their five-game series. The Mets pitch Taijuan Walker against the Braves Drew Smyly. New York is a -145 money line favorite, with the total set at 8.5 (all MLB odds from DraftKings). The New York Yankees play at Tampa Bay at 1:10 PM ET in the getaway game of their three-game series. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Luis Patino of the Rays. New York is a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox are at Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET in the getaway game of their four-game series. The White Sox pitch Carlos Rodon against the Royals’ Carlos Hernandez. Chicago is a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 10. Cincinnati concludes their four-game series with the Cubs in Chicago at 2:20 PM ET. Luis Castillo pitches for the Reds against Alec Mills of the Cubs. Cincinnati is a -125 money line road favorite. The final game of the four-game series between the Nationals and Phillies concludes with the second game of their doubleheader at 3:05 PM ET. The Los Angels Dodgers is at San Francisco in the final game of their three-game series at 3:45 PM ET. The Dodgers pitch David Price against the Giants Johnny Cueto. Los Angeles is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Milwaukee is at Pittsburgh at 7:05 PM ET for the final game of their three-game series. Freddy Peralta pitches for the Brewers against Chad Kuhl for the Pirates. Milwaukee is a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. Detroit hosts Baltimore in the opening game of their four-game series. The Tigers pitch Casey Mize against the Orioles Alexander Wells. Detroit is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Boston plays at home against Toronto in the final game of their four-game series. Eduardo Rodriguez pitches for the Red Sox against Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays. Boston is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 10.The Los Angeles Angels host Oakland at 9:38 PM ET in the opening game of their four-game weekend series. The Angels pitch Alex Cobb against the A’s Frankie Montas. Los Angeles is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. San Diego is at home against Colorado at 10:10 PM ET in the first game of their four-game weekend series. Joe Musgrove pitches for the Padres against Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. San Diego is a -280 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup take place in an FS1 doubleheader. The United States plays Qatar at 7:30 PM ET at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas. The Stars and Stripes are a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Mexico goes against Canada at 10 PM ET at NRG Stadium. El Tri is a -1 goal line favorite with the total at 2.5.

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