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Super Bowl Autoposy: In-Denial or Don't Believe the Philly Hype?

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

For the first time in four seasons, we lost our NFL Game of the Year — each selection in the Super Bowl — when the Philadelphia Eagles thumped the Kansas City Chiefs by a 40-22 score. I concede that the score was not indicative of how much of a blowout that game was. However, three weeks later, I remain steadfast that it was an outlier game and score. I admit that I could be in complete denial. If so, I hope I discover enlightenment in my deep dives on both the Eagles and Chiefs in late summer when I do my foundational work for the 2024-2025 NFL season. Admittedly, something was nagging me about the situation for this game. I usually post my Report the morning after the championship games but this year only posted them the Friday late night two days before. Despite that, I remain convinced that ff these teams played ten times, I think we saw the outlier worst case scenario for KC. In hindsight, I think I may have underestimated the negative impact of complacency from defending champions — but I convinced myself the opportunity to three-peat overwhelmed those concerns regarding how defending champions can tend to let their guard down. Watching the game, I think Mahomes played the worst game I have ever seen him play — even after the offensive line issues. I do not even pretend to be an Xs and Os expert — but the play-calling had me scratching my head to address the offensive line issues and I have since read commentary from more informed sources sharing this view. I was well aware of the offensive line issues all season. But when they moved Joe Thuney to left tackle, the protection got significantly better (albeit at the expense of their elite inside running since Thuney was no longer at left guard). I double-checked afterwards: Kansas City had given up six sacks combined in their previous four games (excluding the Denver Week 18 game when the starers rested) before the Super Bowl. If Jayden Daniels could put up 36 points (and the Rams put up 405 yards with their suspect offensive line in the playoffs), then I thought Kansas City with two weeks to prepare would be fine. I was convinced Kansas City would play up-tempo to tire out the defensive line that started playing better only when Fangio cut down the snaps of all the Georgia draft picks who had been underachieving. But it didn’t happen. And Marquise Brown did not get as many snaps. I know Fangio’s two-high safety look takes away the deep ball, but you need Brown out there for it to take away the damn deep ball to open up space in the middle. I considered the officiating narrative to be 95% Hindsight Bias and 5% “Michael Jordan Knows How to Play the Refs”. I still do. I argued in my Report for the Super Bowl that the close wins were a feature rather than a bug (for starters, at worst, it's an argument that KC should have lost more games — not that they were due to get blown out). I thought the collection of skill position talent that was all finally healthy was the best Mahomes had at his disposal since the Tyreek Hill days — so I did not even think the “too many close wins” narrative applied to what was going to happen in February football. New England, the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson Seahawks, and the Jordan Bulls all made a living winning close games. Those dynasties were operating at a different level where they were confident that they had the talent and brain trust to win close games.Finally, I remain steadfast that Philly is mediocre — and one of the worst Super Bowl champions in our lifetime. I know there is talk about a dynasty already, so I may be anxious to fade them (unless my summer sober deep dive illuminates something I missed very badly). I think the Eagles got lucky to avoid Detroit. Their best win was against Baltimore before the Super Bowl —  and they avoided Kansas City, Buffalo, Detroit, and even Minnesota. To quote my Super Bowl Report after doing a bunch of work to expose all of the Eagles' close wins: "Their losses were to solid but flawed playoff teams, Washington and Tampa Bay, along with Atlanta early in the season. I appreciate their defense became better when rookie Cooper DeJean was inserted into the starting lineup with their base defense shifting to a 4-2-5 nickel look. But their season-long defensive stats benefitted from two games apiece against the New York Giants and Dallas (combined 10-24 record) along with contests against cupcakes like Cleveland, Carolina, New Orleans, and Jacksonville who combined for a 17-51 record. The season-ending injury last month to Nakobe Dean should not be underestimated either since he was the jack-of-all-trades linebacker that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was featuring in his blitz packages. Quarterback Jalen Hurts will be healthier with two weeks to rest — but I am not sure he will be at full strength still regarding his mobility (outside the tush-push) given the knee injury he suffered in the playoffs. I worry that the Eagles' passing game is limited — they only passed for more than 236 yards five times this season (and two of those games were in the first month of the season). What if Hurts is only a B+ passer? Sure, I don’t want to punish Philly for evolving into a run-first team when Saquon Barkley had a career year. But if Philadelphia gets into a situation where they have to pass — either because they fall behind by more double-digits (remember their scoring woes in the first quarter) or because it is late in the game — can Hurts win the game with his arm in a facet of his game that has been off going back to the second half of last season? And this raises another point: I’m not sure this Eagles squad is battle-tested. While they were 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession, only four of their victories were against teams who made the playoffs (Washington twice, LA Rams, Green Bay). Remember all those cupcakes they got to play? Their remaining five wins decided by eight points or less were against New Orleans, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Carolina, and the New York Giants who all failed to win more than five games. I worry that after playing five straight games at home, the Eagles are playing their first game away from Lincoln Financial Field since December 22nd (a loss at Washington).”I would like to see these teams play a few more times. What happens if Mahomes does not spot Philly 14 points in the first half? That was all but insurmountable. If Kansas City had the opportunity to tie or take the lead in the opening possession of the second half, is the game script simply adhering to how they win most of their games? How does the first quarter go if, after admittedly getting a favorable initial call from the officials, the next five or so coin-flip decisions from the officials do not all go the Eagles' way? Two weeks of working the refs — which is not to say that the Chiefs may have been due (but Hindsight Bias from haters) — but it does question the validity of the blowout. It was a nightmare first half and Mahomes was uncharacteristically awful with his accuracy in those opening three drives even before the pick-six and all-but second pick-six. When Kansas City cannot run the football,  they start panicking, the Eagles front smells blood, cue the blowout. Maybe that is lots of Copamine. Thank God the Over cashed. But I am not ready to overreact to that final score when it comes to assessing these two teams next season. Best of luck — Frank.

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The Roller Coaster Ride of Aston Viilla in the English Premier League

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Aston Villa is underachieving in the English Premier League relative to the deeper metrics. They are tied for ninth place in the table with 42 points (albeit with one more match played than Fulham who shares that spot)— but their expected points rise to 42.40. They have scored 40 goals — but their expected goals (xG) rise to 48.990. They have surrendered 45 goals — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is slightly lower at 44.58. Aston Villa has performed better in their return to the UEFA Champions League this year where they earned one of the top eight seeds and a bye into the Final 16 Knockout Stage — and they have a very winnable showdown with Club Brugge on deck so a Quarterfinals or better finish is very much in the card for Emery’s men. The Villans are relatively healthy right now — and they added an important cog for their attack last month by acquiring forward Marcus Rashford on loan from Manchester United with the option to buy. He gives the starting XI another viable scorer to complement Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers. Aston Villa has been very tough to beat at home where they have lost only once in their last 24 matches in the EPL. This season, they have an W7-D7-L1 mark at home against EPL competition — and their 28 points betray the expected 31.06 points from the predictive analytics. They have 25 goals at home — but their xG is 31.94. They have surrendered 18 goals — but their xGA drops to 15.77.  Aston Villa wanted to avenge a 3-0 loss at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea back on December 1st — but that was at the peak of the Blues best stretch all season when they were in much better health. The Villans had won seven of their last 11 matches at home at Villa Park with the other four matches resulting in draws. They came away in that showdown against the Blues with a 2-1 upset victory on February 22nd. Aston Villa surrendered the first goal in the ninth minute but finally leveled the score in the 57th minute in the second half when Marco Asensio scored from a Rashford pass who had just come on as a substitute. Asensio then scored the game-winner from another assist from Rashford in the 89th minute. But they followed that up with a 4-1 loss at Crystal Palace in EPL action on February 25th. The Villans have a W4-D2-L7 mark on the road in the English Premier League with 14 points. Their expected points drop to 11.33 in their 13 matches on the road in the EPL. Aston Villa did return home to beat Cardiff City by a 2-0 score in their latest match in the FA Cup on Friday, February 28th.These recent results only continue to suggest that the Villans are dangerous at home but reckless when on the road. They play their opening round match in the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League on the road against Club Brugge on Tuesday. Best of luck — Frank.

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Portland State is a Dark Horse Candidate to Win the Big Sky Tournament

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Portland State is a dark horse candidate to win the Big Sky conference tournament. They begin March in a tie for third place with Idaho State in the conference with a 9-7 record.The Vikings had been on a two-game losing streak after losing at Weber State, 60-58, as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday, February 22nd. They hosted Montana State on Thursday night, who beat them, 74-73, on the road on February 1st at the beginning of the month. Portland State has covered the point spread in six of their seven games this season when playing with revenge from a loss to their opponent earlier in the season. They come back home where they have a 10-1 record with a net point differential of more than 22 points. They are averaging 82.2 points per game at home on 51% shooting from the field. They hold their opponents to 60.1 points per game at home on 37% shooting. The Vikings had covered the point spread in twelve of their last eight games at home going into that game, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. They had covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Portland State had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against opponents winning 40% to 49% of their games.It shaped up to be a good matchup for the Vikings. Montana State had won two games in a row before an 89-85 loss at home to Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats had a 12-16 record this season going into the game, and their loss to their in-state rival Grizzlies lowered their conference record to 7-8. They had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. Montana State has a 10-3 record at home, yet they were only 2-13 on the road with a net point differential of more than -7 points per game going into that game. They were averaging only 68.3 points per game on the road from 42% shooting. They had covered the point spread twice in their last ten games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last nineteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. The Vikings shoot 48.1% from the field, yet the Bobcats had covered the point spread in seven of their last nineteen games on the road against opponents who are making 45% or more of their shots from the field. Montana State had not covered the point spread in four straight games against opponents winning 51% to 60% of their games. They had covered the point spread just once in their last six games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to three points or as a favorite of up to three points. Sure enough, Portland State cruised to a 79-62 victory against Montana State (in what was our NCAA-B Game of the Month). The Vikings made 45.9% of their shots in the game and held the Bobcats to 42% shooting. It was an easy victory for Portland State because they pulled down 15 offensive rebounds and forced eight turnovers. Their ability to produce additional scoring possessions is why they should be considered a threat to win the Big Sky conference tournament. The Vikings lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank second in the Big Sky by rebounding 33.5% of their missed shots. With a 17-12 record overall this season going into March, they will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament. Yet their ability to force turnovers and create second shots on the offensive glass should not discounted in a one-and-done conference tournament. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Re-Emergence of Team USA in International Hockey

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

The United States national team recorded their biggest victory in decades in their 3-1 win against Canada in their second game in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Beating Team Canada is a big challenge for any national team. Canada had not lost in a best-on-best competition in international play since February 21st, 2010 before that setback. They had won twenty-six games in a row in international play when Sidney Crosby was on the roster. Yet Team USA constructed one of its best-ever rosters under Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin who has the same responsibilities for this team. Any doubt about the ability of the Americans to compete should have been dispelled in their 6-1 victory against Finland in their opening game in the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. The American roster can match the Canadians' top-end scoring talent with Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes leading the way. The Americans bottomed out in their last international event eight years ago in the World Cup of Hockey when they lost all three of their group-stage games. That roster consisted of many gritty two-way players who thrived during the Stanley Cup playoffs yet were not as good of fits in international play that features speed and skill with a different set of rules. That USA team did not have up-and-coming talent either like Matthews, Eichel, Johnny Gaudreau, and Dylan Larkin who played for 21-and-under North American squad. Guerin compiled a roster that emphasizes speed and skill now. The heart and soul of this team are the Tkachuk brothers, Brady and Matthew, who are playing together on a line centered by Eichel. Their energy and physicality were the controlling factors in the first game against the Canadiens (and it started when they both initiated the first two of the three fights in those electrifying opening nine seconds). Yet the big edge for Team USA remains in net with goaltender Connor Hellebuyck who may be the best goaltender in the world right now. He has a 2.07 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage for Winnipeg in the NHL this season. He stopped 25 of 26 shots against Canada including 10 of the 11 high danger chances the Canadians mustered. Hellebuyck stopped 45 of the 47 shots he has faced in this tournament for a .957 save percentage and a 1.00 goals-against average before the championship game. In his two games before the rematch against Canada, he had saved 16 of the 17 high-danger shots for a .941 save percentage. He also stopped all eight of the shots he has faced from midrange. The Americans’ 2-1 loss against Sweden in their final game before the finals should not have been considered a red flag since head coach Mike Sullivan was able to rest key players. Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk did not play dealing with minor injuries. Brady Tkachuk did not play after the first period after suffering a minor injury. Jake Oettinger was in the net with Connor Hellebuyck getting the night. The intensity of the game was not the same since the Americans' victory on Saturday clinched their spot in the championship game. Despite the loss, the USA registered 4.07 expected goals and held the Swedes to 2.42 expected goals. Even a 3-2 loss in overtime in the championship game to Canada should not detract from the threat Team USA should present in international play for the rest of the decade. The USA outshot Canada, 33-27. Matthew Tkachuk only played 6:47 minutes in the game before not being able to return due to the injury he suffered early in the tournament. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy was also out for the entire game with a shoulder injury. Vancouver defenseman Quinn Hughes did not play in the entire tournament because of an injury as well. Certainly, the Canadian roster will be stacked for the 2026 Olympics. They will probably have a goaltender who is more reliable than St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington. Yet the Americans have too many players in the prime of their careers to not be a serious threat to lift trophies in international events for the next several years. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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2025 NFL Draft Prospects: Who Drafts Cam Ward?

by Oskeim Sports

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Jeff Keim explores the 2025 NFL draft board and discusses the needs of various teams.  This year’s NFL draft is loaded with talent at every position, but which prospects will be taken in the first round of the NFL draft? First-Round Draft Prospects At the NFL Scouting Combine, hundreds of prospects hope to increase their draft status with impressive workouts and interviews in Indianapolis. However, one week in Indiana won’t determine someone’s fate in such an expansive class. Running backs and edge defenders dominate the projected NFL draft board, providing evaluators with ample opportunities to find future starters early in the draft process. The Washington Commanders need additional pass rushers, and Texas A&M edge rusher Shemar Stewart possesses excellent closing speed and lateral quickness.  Stewart flashed his ability to sack quarterbacks as an inside and outside linebacker in 2024, and his versatility should propel him early into the first round.  The Arizona Cardinals are another potential home for Stewart as the Cardinals finished last season ranked 28th in the league in pass rush win rate at 33%.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass rush ranked 13th in pressure rate (31.9%) last season but needs depth off the edge as their top two pass rushers – Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea – play inside. James Pearce Jr. has a quick first step and recorded 7.5 sacks last season.  Many scouts believe Pearce possesses the highest upside among edge rushers in this year’s NFL Draft. The Giants Should Draft Cam Ward Many teams need an answer at quarterback this year, but the free agency market nor the draft offers many promising options. However, there are some viable candidates for teams in need of a quality quarterback.  The two teams in most need of an upgrade at quarterback this offseason are the New York Giants and Oakland Raiders, Miami quarterback Cam Ward threw for the most touchdown passes (39) and finished with the second-most passing yards (4,313) in the FBS.  The Giants finished 28th in QBR (44.9) and managed only two more touchdown passes (15) than interceptions (13). The Pittsburgh Steelers should consider adding another young signal-caller in this year's draft to ensure sufficient competition and depth at quarterback.  Jaxson Dart’s delivery and efficient footwork would work well in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy system. Over the past two seasons, Dart had 7,633 passing yards, 51 touchdown throws, and 11 interceptions. He’s a capable thrower outside the pocket and on the run.Kyle McCord spent 2021 to 2023 with Ohio State before transferring to Syracuse in 2024.  McCord’s career-high 4,779 passing yards and 34 touchdowns have positioned him to jump into the top five quarterback prospects with a strong Combine performance.  The Broncos Should Draft Ashton Jeanty Last season, the Denver Broncos ran screen passes frequently and needed a receiver who could stretch the field on such plays while providing yards after the catch. Luther Burden III excelled at both tasks, leading Power Four wide-receivers in both receptions and receiving yards for screen passes last season. However, the Broncos tied for 20th in yards per rush (4.1) last season, and Javonte Williams is a free agent. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty makes perfect sense operating behind Denver’s offensive line, which ranked first in run block win rate in 2024.  Jeanty ran for 2,601 yards this past season, and his speed and power make him a Pro Bowl-level player. Which Teams Need a Tight End? The 2025 draft may not boast many all-pro tight ends, but several players could still help teams at this position. Harold Fannin of Bowling Green is an impressive athlete with excellent run-after-the-catch skills but does not possess the prototypical size for a tight end. Fannin must show that his speed and movement abilities can compete at an elite level against more formidable competition in the NFL.  There is no question that his speed would be an asset on several teams. Gunnar Helm from Texas boasts sticky hands, an expansive catch radius and the ability to work down the seams of defenses. Although his blocking needs work, Helms has all the tools necessary to be an NFL starter. Tyler Warren can make some tough catches and is one of this class’s most dangerous run-after-catch players. Warren forced 21 missed tackles on catches this past season and would be an asset for the Indianapolis Colts. Michigan tight end Colston Loveland is an elite route runner with the catch radius to come down with contested balls.  Loveland set a career-high with 56 catches this past season and would make an excellent fit in Los Angeles under former head coach Jim Harbaugh.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/28/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. The Detroit Pistons host the Denver Nuggets at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 237 (all odds from DraftKings). Three more NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232. The Brooklyn Nets are home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 1-point spread with a total of 217.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Atlanta to play the Hawks as a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 242. Three NBA games play at 8:10 p.m.ET. The Memphis Grizzlies host the New York Knicks as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 245. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 235. The Indiana Pacers play in Miami against the Heat as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 225.5. The Phoenix Suns are home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves are at Utah to face the Jazz at 9:40 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 225.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are the technical road team at Crypto.com Arena against the Los Angeles Lakers on ESPN at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. The Toronto Maple Leafs visit the New York Rangers at 7:07 p.m. ET as a-120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars host the Los Angeles Kings at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Minnesota Wild at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 23 games between Division I opponents. Seven NCAAB games are on major national television. Central Michigan plays at Eastern Michigan on the CBS Sports Network at 6:00 p.m. ET. as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Two more NCAAB games on major national television at 7:00 p.m. ET. VCU plays at home against Davidson on ESPN2 as a 15.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Quinnipiac is home against Saint Peter’s on ESPNU as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138.5. Purdue hosts UCLA on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 140.5. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Akron plays at home against Kent State as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Northwestern is home against Iowa on FS1 as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. Nevada is at UNLV on FS1 at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 133.5. 

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Bettors' Guide For March Madness

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Feb 27, 2025

March Madness Betting Strategies When March Madness arrives, it’s highly recommended you follow specific strategies rather than place wild bets with no thought or structure. This way, you can manage your bankroll more effectively and also give yourself a better chance at winning. Really, it’s a no-brainer. So, to get you on the road to success, here are a few betting strategies you should keep in mind: Betting On the FavoritesThe NCAA is quite unique in the fact that the favorites typically win most of the time. Excluding the March Madness 2023, where the UConn Huskies won the tournament, each of the previous five March Madness champions were all #1 seeds. For example, when the Kansas Jayhawks won in 2022, they were already the favorite heading into the event. What you can take from this is that betting on the tournament favorite is usually a good strategy when it comes to March Madness, with the Auburn Tigers (+900) sitting as current favorite for the 2025 incarnation of March Madness. I bet Florida a week ago at (+1100). However, it’s generally recommended you wait until the tournament begins until you bet on the favorite, as it’s entirely possible that the Auburn Tigers will experience a dip in form in the months building up to the event, which would then see them removed as favorites. Keep in mind these are “future bets”; not daily point spread wagers. Betting On Every Underdog Betting on every underdog in March Madness sounds like a crazy idea, but there might be something to it! The NCAA Division I Tournament is known for its wild nature, so it’s an interesting strategy worth considering. In the first two rounds, we look to bet “live dogs”. The favorites might be in the middle of a blowout but to rest their players they might rest them late in the game giving more opportunities for the dog to cover. Look for Live Betting Boosts During March Madness, it’s very common for games to receive ‘odds boosts’. The way this works is that specific odds get increased, making the potential payout much higher than it normally would be. Whenever you see a profitable odds boost like this, it’s an excellent idea to take advantage of it, especially if the boosted odds are for the favorite team giving the underdog more points. Fans love betting favorites so the lines are continually adjust  Three Metrics to Consider There are three metrics that I always like to look at first when handicapping tournament matchups.1. Offensive rebounding percentage: Is a team going to get decimated on the boards?2. Turnover percentage: Teams that turn the ball over, especially on the road, can get into trouble in the tournament. Alabama is one example that stands out to me. 3. Free throw attempts per game: Some teams foul like crazy, others don't foul at all. If a team relies on scoring from FT line, what happens if they aren't getting there?Long Shots Despite the early upsets, we've seen the best teams find a way to win the title in recent years. Trying to find a long shot to get to the Final Four is a worthwhile approach but so much of the sport right now is match-up dependent that it might benefit bettors to wait until they see the field before firing all of their positions this late in the year. When it comes to betting the opening rounds, some of the value we used to find on the mid-majors has been lost with the widespread availability of forward-facing analytics sites like ours. However, the portal has evened out the advantages the power 5 usually has. In Game Wagering There's nothing wrong with looking to get involved with a game at halftime or live if you happen to miss a number before tip-off -- absolutely no reason to chase a price. Typically you'll see some additional opportunity in the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 when oddsmakers are forced to overreact with one high-profile data point. I've found it profitable to fade the trendy cinderella after a major upset, knowing upsets are normally attributed to shooting variance -- which can be hard to repeat twice in 48 hours. Poor 3-point shootingAs far as shooting variance is concerned, teams from small schools playing in small gyms for their home games most always have shooting problems. Their depth perception in the cavernous arenas throw off their shots. It they lived by the three, they might die by the three. Taking Moneyline Underdogs If you took every underdog on the ML in the NCAA tournament in the past three years from the Round of 64 through the Final Four, you would have been paid in a big way. The record is 67-124 (35.1 percent), but $200 per game bettors would be up $7300 taking every underdog on the ML. That’s an ROI of a whopping 19.1%. If you like an underdog, don’t be afraid to at least put part of your bet on the ML. If you’re conservative, only bet money lines on underdogs getting anything from +1 to +7. Any team at + 8 to +30 will most likely have too much to overcome having to win outright. Defensive Underdog Wagering Since 2010, betting on an underdog that has allowed fewer than 60 points in their previous game has been a really profitable angle, going 147-98 ATS (60 percent ATS). These are typically teams who slow the tempo down and keep a game close even if they lose. Those slow-paced defensive dogs are rarely popular with the public, but they have been a great moneymaker. Conclusion March Madness is only a month away. Ahead of the biggest event of the year in college basketball, it’s a great idea to sign-up with a sports betting site, set yourself a March Madness budget, and start planning your bets. Remember, you can even start now by betting on which team you think is going to win the championship ahead of time. You can also wait for the event to begin, watch games on TV, and place ‘live’ bets on the in-game action. The options are endless, so make sure you gamble giving yourself the maximum chance to win. A Very Old SayingTo guess is cheap;To guess wrong is expensive. Be sure to follow us all throughout March Madness. Good Luck, Wayne

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 02/27/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 27, 2025

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The Golden State Warriors travel to Orlando to face the Magic at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 5-point road favorite with the total set at 211 (all odds from DraftKings). The Denver Nuggets play in Milwaukee against the Bucks on TNT at 8:00 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 240. The Dallas Mavericks host the Charlotte Hornets at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 223. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 236. The Los Angeles Lakers are home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10:40 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Seven NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Florida Panthers host the Edmonton Oilers as a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Detroit Red Wings play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Islanders are home against the Boston Bruins as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Washington Capitals host the St. Blues as a -185 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning are home against the Calgary Flames as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Montreal Canadiens host the San Jose Sharks as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play at home against the Philadelphia Flyers at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets visit the Nashville Predators at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Utah Hockey Clubs are home against the Minnesota Wild at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5.Two games at 10:07 p.m. ET conclude the NHL card. The Vegas Golden Knights host the Chicago Blackhawks as a -395 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks play in Anaheim against the Ducks as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has 54 games between Division I opponents. Seven NCAAB games are on major national television. Two NCAAB on major national television start at 7:00 p.m. ET. Longwood plays at home against Winthrop on ESPNU as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 162.5. North Texas is at Florida Atlantic on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 135.5. Four NCAAB games on major national television begin at 9:00 p.m. ET. Michigan is at home against Rutgers on Peacock as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Wichita State hosts UAB on ESPNU as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Wright State plays at home against Cleveland State on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. UTEP is at home against Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 150.5. Saint Mary’s travels to Loyola-Marymount on the CBS Sports Network at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Matchweek 27 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. West Ham United hosts Leicester City on the USA Network at 3:00 p.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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NBA March Schedule Outlook: East Contenders

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

 The All-Star Break is complete and while the NBA regular season schedule goes two weeks into April, the standings will likely take form in March. Here is a look at the top Eastern Conference playoff threats with a look at the upcoming March schedules and what one can expect in the big picture by the end of the month.   Cleveland Cavaliers: At 48-10 the Cavaliers could approach a record pace for the franchise that won 66 wins in 2008-09, already matching last season’s win total. Chasing that record isn’t expected to be a priority for Cleveland, but Boston could push the Cavaliers to remain competitive in pursuit of locking up the #1 seed. Cleveland’s schedule has been favorable as there is some valid skepticism in the strength of record. The March path isn’t likely to provide much of a dent however as Cleveland only plays a few games in March vs. top contenders. Cleveland will be on the road for 10 of 17 games in the month with a 27-4 home record included in the current record. The end of February meeting with Boston will grab headlines but the Cavaliers aren’t likely to go anywhere as the team with the league’s best record.   Boston Celtics: Boston won 64 games in the regular season last year and went on to win the NBA Championship. This year’s team isn’t on quite the same pace and surprisingly has 10 home losses. The Celtics have performed well against top competition this season however and should still be considered the team to beat in the East even if Cleveland runs away with the #1 seed. March will test the Celtics as Boston is more likely to slide to the #3 position than to rise to the #1 position. The Celtics have home games with the Nuggets, Lakers, and Thunder early in March before playing eight of the final nine March games on the road in a tough road trip. That trip ends with a road game in Memphis that will be a sixth consecutive road game in the span of 11 days. Boston has played well on the road this season but maintaining the torrid February pace is unlikely through the upcoming path.   New York Knicks: The Knicks have faced the weakest schedule in the NBA at this point in the season and New York has the fewest top 10 caliber wins of any of the top nine teams in the league. New York just failed in both tests vs. the top East contenders with losses in Cleveland and Boston out of the All-Star Break. The Knicks will face a road-heavy start to March after closing February with a difficult game in Memphis. New York has a five-game west coast trip early in March that includes two games in Los Angeles. The back end of March path is favorable however as New York could pick up some ground on the Celtics in the next month. New York plays Cleveland twice plus the Celtics in April but those games may be more meaningful for the Knicks in the standings at that point.   Indiana Pacers: Indiana isn’t often mentioned as a serious contender, but the Pacers were in the Eastern Conference Finals last season and March should be a good month for the Pacers to put together a strong record. The Pacers have only eight road games in March and only one is against an elite contender. The Pacers will have games in Milwaukee and Minnesota as well, but most games are well spaced out as Indiana has started the season playing more road games than home games so far through the schedule. The Pacers don’t have a lot of high-end wins in the season record and the scoring differential is barely positive for the Pacers, but this is a team that could climb closer to the top three in March, while facing some urgency with a tight race in the #4-6 spots.   Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks were the in-season NBA Cup winners in December, but it has mostly been a mediocre run since defeating the Thunder in Las Vegas. Milwaukee has a very difficult schedule March schedule ahead and sliding to the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is a real possibility. The Bucks have a very difficult run in early March as in the span of 12 days they play Cleveland, Indiana twice, the Lakers twice, plus the Thunder and Warriors. They also have a five-game road trip in late March ending in Denver before a late March home date with the Knicks. Milwaukee only has four games in March where they figure to be even a modest favorite as things could get worse for Milwaukee as this might be the #6 seed by the end of the month, with Milwaukee fortunate that only five other teams in the East currently have a winning record.  Detroit Pistons: Detroit is one of the great stories of the NBA going from a 14-win season to being a likely playoff team. The Pistons don’t have a great profile as a top postseason threat, but this is a younger and hungrier team than many of the veteran-led squads in the mix for playoff spots. Detroit has enjoyed a nice run of results around the All-Star break there will be a lot of winnable games in March. Detroit will play Washington twice, plus games with New Orleans, Utah, San Antonio, Brooklyn, and Portland in March. The Pistons might not hold up in games vs. Oklahoma City and Cleveland but this is a team that could rise to play well in those home opportunities in potential flat spots on the schedule for contenders. Overall, the March schedule is appealing with only eight road games and many winnable games for Detroit to maintain its top six position in the East, with a realistic chance to climb to #5 this month. The final two games of the season for Detroit are with Milwaukee and those Central games could wind up determining positions in the East standings. 

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NBA March Schedule Outlook: West Contenders

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

 The All-Star Break is complete and while the NBA regular season schedule goes two weeks into April, the standings will likely take form in March. Here is a look at the top Western Conference playoff threats with a look at the upcoming March schedules and what one can expect in the big picture by the end of the month.   Oklahoma City Thunder: Oklahoma City owns a massive lead in the Western Conference standings as the Thunder will likely lock up the #1 position in the conference before the end of March. Chasing down Cleveland for the #1 overall seed may not be a huge priority and Oklahoma City has a few difficult stretches in the March schedule. The Thunder have a game at Memphis early in the month then have a mid-March gauntlet with back-to-back home games with Denver before a road trip going through Boston, Detroit, and Milwaukee in five days. Oklahoma City should maintain its current pace but one shouldn’t expect a dominant month with little incentive in the West standings. The Thunder will be chasing 60 wins, which is the most the team has posted since moving to Oklahoma City, while the Supersonics were 64-game winners in 1995-96.   Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis has looked the part of a serious contender but any thoughts of catching Oklahoma City in the West standings should be wiped away with a glance at the March schedule. Memphis will be tested with two games vs. the Thunder in March plus games vs. the Cavaliers, Clippers, Lakers, and Celtics in the month. Memphis will face a five-game west road trip late in the month that should take a toll as well. Memphis could pick up a bit of ground with seven of the first nine March games at home, but this is a team that has faced one of the weakest schedules in the NBA and has a very poor record vs. the top of the league this season. The Grizzlies are only 2.5 ahead of the #5 position and it might be a slight surprise if Memphis is still in the #2 spot by the end of March.  Denver Nuggets: Like Memphis, Denver has a poor record vs. the top teams on the schedule and Denver is likely at risk to slide out of the top three in the West standings. The month starts in Boston and the Nuggets will also face the Thunder twice on the road plus home dates with Minnesota and the Lakers all in the first two weeks of March. A four-game road trip including stops in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Houston will follow late in March as well. Denver has a very difficult March schedule ahead and the door may be open for another team to move up in the conference race.   Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers have had a great February and March could provide positive returns for the Lakers as well as this team shouldn’t be ruled out for a run to the top two in the Western Conference standings. There are plenty of difficult games on the March schedule but eight of the first 12 games will be at home. There are two four-game road trips ahead in March including two sets of back-to-back road games but there are plenty of winnable games mixed into the monthly path. The addition of Luka Doncic has made huge waves in the Western Conference picture and in the tight race for the #2-to-5 positions in the West, the Lakers have a reasonable remaining schedule. A break for the Lakers may also be that two games at Oklahoma City are in April, after the Thunder will likely have the #1 seed wrapped up.  Houston Rockets: With the big splash made by the Lakers and the more proven results from the Grizzlies and Nuggets, Houston is the forgotten team in the West race. Houston has played one of the toughest schedules in the NBA however and only the Thunder have as many top 10 wins as the Rockets. Houston has a very favorable schedule ahead In March even with a road game at Oklahoma City early in the month. Seven of the first 10 games of March will be at home for the Rockets and many of those games will be against marginal competition. Five of the final seven games of March will be on the road but only one of those road games is against a top contender. Houston had a tough February to slide in the standings, but the Rockets are only 2.0 games out of the #2 position in the West and this team has the credentials and the schedule to move up in the standings by the end of March. 

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Recent Sporting News From Around The World

by William Burns

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

(SOCCER) MLS IS BACK .. As the European Football seasons enter the final stretch over these next couple of months, the MLS starts up again. This past weekend was the first match-week and we saw some very interesting results. Expansion team: San Diego FC's first MLS game ever was a win against the defending MLS Cup Champions (LA Galaxy.) Inter Miami & Lionel Messi kicked their season off with a draw against NYFC. Miami is the favorite to win it all this year (+400.) MAN CITY OUT OF UCL IN EARLY KNOCKOUT STAGES .. It was an unlucky draw for both teams. However, that's what the new format is all about. Real Madrid was forced to play Manchester City in the "Playoffs Round" of the Champions League. Man City was the team that fell short in the end and now will watch from home for the rest of the way. Madrid are the current favorites to win the UCL and repeat what it accomplished last season (+400.) Barcelona & Liverpool are close.  LIVERPOOL RUNNING AWAY w/ PREMIER LEAGUE ..  Talking about Liverpool, it's now 13 points clear of Arsenal at the top spot in the Premier League. The Reds keep winning and seem unstoppable this season. Liverpool is now (-5000) to win the Prem. Don't expect any other team to come close to them.  (FIGHTING)MASSIVE TITLE FIGHTS TO COME IN 2025 ..  Not only have we been expecting the Jon Jones/Tom Aspinal Heavyweight Bout. But, we are now expecting an Islam Makhachev/Ilia Topuria war sometime in 2025 after Ilia vacated his belt to move up in weight class. Both of these fights should be absolutely insane! In Boxing, we could see a Gervonta “Tank” Davis & Lamont Roach throw it down this weekend. Get buckled up for an amazing year of fights.  RISING STARS IN THE UFC .. After last week's ridiculous knockout, Jean Silva is a name to remember in the Featherweight Division. Rei Tsuruya (undefeated 10-0) is just 22 years old and he makes his UFC debut against Joshua Van at UFC 313 in what should be a really good fight. Joshua Van too is a rising star in the UFC and the winner of this fight will be in prime position to do great things. Nurullo Aliev is an undefeated fighter as well. Nicknamed the "Tajik Eagle" he will out work you until the final bell. One more I've got to mention is Iasmin Lucindo. At just 22 years old, she's poised for greatness and could be the next Brazilian Women's Strawweight Champ. (HOCKEY) CANADA WINS GOLD AT 4 NATIONS FACE-OFF ..  What an event it was that the NHL put on for the world to see in February. Replacing the All-Star game, a mini tournament was put on by the best of the best from the four countries of Canada, USA, Sweden & Finland. After the USA beat Canada in the round-robin, Canada got the best of them in the finale bringing joy across the country in what was an instant classic game finished by the world's most skilled player in Connor McDavid. WINNIPEG & WASHINGTON IN DOMINATING FORM ..  Heading into Thursday, February 27th, the Winnipeg Jets are on another 10-game winning streak. The Jets are 11 points clear of the second best team in the Western Conference (Dallas) and have just over 20 games remaining. Similar stuff is going on out East where the Washington Capitals keep on winning. They are 10 points clear of the second best team in the Eastern Conference (Toronto) and Ovechkin is just 12 goals away from passing "The Great One" in goals.  (TENNIS) 17 YR OLD PHENOM, MIRRA ANDREEVA MAKES HISTORY ..  After winning the DUBAI WTA 1000 tournament, Mirra Andreeva became the youngest player in tennis history to win a WTA 1000 event. She's now ranked in the top 10 in the WTA rankings for the first time in her young career and this is just the beginning. She's only going to go up from here.  JANNIK SINNER BANNED FOR 3 MONTHS ..  Most people don't agree with the length of this suspension while others don't believe he should be suspended at all. But, either way, Jannik Sinner is currently serving a 3-Month Ban for his "Doping Case" last year. For those who don't know, a banned substance (Trofodermin, containing clostebol,)  entered his system from a spray to heal a wound. The average ban for a case like this is anywhere from 12-24 months. He will not miss any Grand Slam events and even will be able to return for the Italian Open which starts three days after he's able to play again.  TERRIFYING STALKER IN DUBAI .. The average tennis fan may not remember the incident of Monica Seles who got stabbed mid-match by a stalker in 1993. She was one of the best players in the world, if not the best at the time and it was a complete shock to the tennis world. Well, a recent incident found former US Open Champ Emma Raducanu on the scary end of it in Dubai as this was not the first time the British player had someone "stalking" her. She had been the victim of a different stalker, with another man who was given a 5-year restraining order back home in 2022. She returns to play at Indian Wells set for the start of March. (BASEBALL) BASEBALL IS BACK ..  You heard that right. MLB Spring Training is finally here and that means that the Regular Season is just around the corner. LAD (+300 to Win) is locked and loaded again, attempting to go B2B. Don't be shocked if the Dodgers are at the top of the baseball world for many years to come.  (BASKETBALL) TOP CONTENDERS THIS SEASON ..  Cleveland & Oklahoma City seem to be the runaways right now in the regular season. However, things could change drastically come the playoffs in April/May/June. Boston remains the co-favorite (along with OKC) to win the NBA Championship and go B2B (at +210) and there are plenty of teams that have a chance to do damage.   HERE COMES GOLDEN STATE AGAIN ..  Golden State is one of those teams. At +1900 to take home the championship this season, that number keeps getting smaller. The Warriors added Jimmy "Buckets" Butler to their team and they've started dominating. No, I'm not going to say that this dynasty is back. However, it's getting more and more likely that the Dubs will be in contention to win this thing. 

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Gambling News And Notes

by AAA Sports

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

Can’t go even a full month without a way-too-early, pre-free agency, pre-trades, pre-draft look at the 2025 season?Here are three teams that might be worth a futures ticket:1.      PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – The Chiefs have proven that winning two in a row is hardly impossible, so why not take an early flyer on the Birds to go back to back? And when you look at the way they’re built, two Super Bowl rings seem very gettable. Philly has the all the weapons it needs on offense, a massive physical offensive line, key people under contract and nary an unhappy player (in public, anyway). They are equally prepared for warm and cold weather games. The Eagles are out of the gate at +700 to win next February’s Super Bowl.2.      BALTIMORE RAVENS – Baltimore also is set – for now, anyway – at +700. They have a legit year after year MVP candidate in Lamar Jackson, and could be ready to make the jump if the Chiefs fade even a bit and the Bills are unable to get over the hump that always seems to be in their headlights. Baltimore has a decent amount of cap space and could add to an already solid core. Ravens fans are keeping a close eye on veteran left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is a free agent and is key to a lot of what Jackson and Derrick Henry do on offense.3.      DETROIT LIONS – At +850, the Lions are obviously in the mix. Question is, is there enough Lysol to erase the stench from that godawful playoff loss to Washington? Getting to the playoffs in Detroit seemed to take a generation, and this defeat – on top of losing the previous year after leading by 17 at halftime – was a stomach punch followed by a kick in the anatomy a little lower. Is Jared Goff the guy they want going forward, or should the Lions focus on improving a defense that gave up 45 to the Commanders? Warriors get new life with ButlerThe Jimmy coming in the door is light years better than the Jimmy who wants out, so the honeymoon period is in full bloom in Golden State. Butler’s presence on the floor is getting Steph Curry more open looks, and the reverse may also be true. Whatever the case, the Warriors won five of their first six with Butler in uniform and for the first time in months the Dubs are actually talking about making a long playoff run. GS opened at +3000 this season, but the latest look has that number trimmed to +1800. The Warriors have more than a decent shot at sneaking into the 6 seed in the Western Conference, which would have been considered a bridge too far after the first two months of the season.Top 3 Cy Young Contenders For This Season -- Each LeagueTarik Skubal - In the American League filled with left-handed gems at the pitcher position, Skubal is the guy that everyones trying to catch. His playoff performance was great and that was just some of his amazing year in 2024. He's at +400 to win Cy Young this year.  Garrett Crochet - The Red Sox have made some big moves and getting Crochet was one of them. Crochet is going to be a problem and his odds are at +600 to be the best pitcher in the AL this year.  Cole Ragans - A steal for the Royals? Ragans just signed a 3-year 13 million dollar deal which is mind blowing. Even though he's under team control until 2028, Ragans should be getting paid a whole lot more than this and his play might just show that this year. He's at +900. Paul Skenes - Overrated? Not too many people can really say that Skenes wasn't impressive in his first year as a Pirate. But, being the clear favorite at +300 to win the Cy Young in the National League in just his second year might be a bit of a stretch. In a league that's loaded with clear superstars at the pitching position, let's see if Paul Skenes lives up to the hype. Zack Wheeler - Wheeler is maybe the most consistent pitcher in baseball these days and last year might've been his best of the bunch. He's sitting at +750 for Cy Young and this might be a steal. Chris Sale - At +800, age doesn't seem to be bothering the Braves' lefty. Now 35 years young, Sale had a year to remember last season positing a 18-3 record and 2.38 ERA. He's definitely going to be one to watch as he could either be terrific or horrible this year. 

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