Articles

The Buffalo Bills' November Paradigm Shift on Offense

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score to begin the month of November, the Bills made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Breida in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. Breida ran the ball only three times but it was the first time he got touched the football since September 12th. His 28 yards on those three carries earned him more playing time.The game script the following week kept the Bills from continuing their ambition to run the football more. They fell behind Indianapolis 14-0 in the first quarter before going into halftime trailing by a 24-7 score. Perhaps an early score to pull within 10 points could have allowed head coach Sean McDermott to get back to running the football to open up the ancillary benefits to that tactic. But the Colts scored 14 points in the third quarter to take an insurmountable lead that could only be overcome by scoring quickly in the passing game. In the end, the Bills ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Breida’s contributions were encouraging moving forward as he gained 51 rushing yards on five carries.Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. I expected this formula for success to be what McDermott strived for in their bounce-back game in New Orleans against the Saints. Sure enough, the Bills ran the ball 32 times for 113 yards in a 31-6 victory against the Saints. Allen was only asked to throw the ball 28 times. He completed 23 of these passes. Breida ran the ball nine times for 26 yards. Interestingly, McDermott opted to have Zack Moss placed as a healthy scratch in that game leaving the primary rushing duties to Breida and David Montgomery. Buffalo held New Orleans to only 190 yards. The Jets gained 366 yards in the first game after McDermott had Daboll redesign the offense, but much of that was in garbage time. The Colts game got away from the Bills early, but expect McDermott to continue having Allen play under center with a renewed commitment to relying on their running backs as their primary ball carriers. Asking Allen to do less may be the most beneficial aspect of this change of tactics. Allen has rushed the ball 69 times for 382 yards this season. He only had two rushing attempts in the games against the Jets and Colts respectively before running the ball ten times in New Orleans. But running backs (or wide receivers in specialty plays) ran the ball 20 and 24 times in those games. McDermott will still want Allen to take advantage of his legs -- especially when the team needs a big play. But expect the running backs to take a higher load of the rushing attempts moving forward.Best of luck — Frank.  

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Joussiance and the Stagnation of Sean McVay

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

Jouissance is defined as a physical or intellectual delight, pleasure, or ecstasy. I first stumbled upon the concept in film school when the discussion of the dream state that the viewing experience inside a movie theater ventured into the work of French psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan. For Lacan, his use of the term had a sublimated sexual component in its expression in a subject. Lacan who I began to think about when watching Sean McVay embark on his 50-yard dash to celebrate Matthew Stafford’s successful long pass to DeSean Jackson during their prime-time victory against Tampa Bay earlier in the season. The dopamine was definitely triggering with the successful execution of that play. Big plays will do that. But I still found McVay’s (over)reaction surprising. We don’t see Andy Reid break out into a full sprint whenever Patrick Mahomes connects a deep ball with Tyreek Hill. Perhaps McVay was trying to offer support for a disgruntled Jackson unhappy in not being involved enough in the offense. If so, McVay’s player-management skills failed to please Jackson who asked for his release soon after. Los Angeles may be tied with the Dallas Cowboys to lead the NFL in Yards-Per-Play — but their only victory against a team with a winning record was that triumph against Buccaneers. After their 36-28 loss at Green Bay as a small favorite on Sunday (our NFL Game of the Month, by the way), the Rams have lost three games in a row. I argued in my defense of taking the Packers that I thought “offensive genius” Sean McVay has become too enamored with the dopamine hit he receives when Matthew Stafford connects on a long pass. In general, I think McVay is a fine young coach. I cringe when the “offensive genius” moniker seems to be a mandatory modifier to his name. I find the hiring trends involving anyone who once sat at the lunch table with him to be desperate. And I appreciate McVay when he admitted he prepared his team incorrectly in the Super Bowl loss to New England when his offense managed only three points. But I was very disappointed to see McVay throw Jared Goff under the bus after the blockbuster trade with Detroit to acquire Stafford. McVay never mentioned Goff by name. However, when a teenage boy breaks up with his girlfriend to start dating something new and then raves about how good a dancer she is and how nice her breath smells, the implication is obvious: the previous GF had no moves and pretty much stunk.In his jouissance of no longer having to manage the play of Goff, McVay has abandoned the play-action rushing attack that made the offense so effective in propelling the Rams’ Super Bowl run. The Rams only rushed for 68 yards against Green Bay after managing only 52 rushing yards against the 49ers in their upset loss to San Francisco two weeks ago. I worry that McVay has overrated the talents of Stafford. I like Stafford and I think he has incredible natural ability. His decision-making was sometimes questionable with Detroit — and he certainly lacks big-time playoff experience even going back to his days with Georgia. I think he got lulled into forcing the football to Calvin Johnson when those two stars were paired together — and I think he matured as a quarterback and as a leader after Johnson’s premature retirement. The addition of Odell Beckham worries me because it may play into McVay’s dopamine addiction for the long-ball and because Stafford may succumb to the pressure to get him the football rather than taking what the defense offers him. Maybe the Rams are the franchise where Beckham will stop being failed by everyone around him? Or maybe, just maybe, Beckham is part of the problem? Granted, they need Beckham now after the season-ending injury to Robert Woods. The Rams have lost three straight games despite being favored in all three games (the losing streak started with their loss to Tennessee on Sunday Night Football). Stafford five interceptions in those three games after throwing only four interceptions in his first eight starts with his new team. Even more concerning, Stafford has thrown a pick-six in each of these three games. He has also been sacked nine times in these three games. That is a problem that I think speaks more to play-calling than it does the quality of the offensive line or Stafford’s elusiveness in the pocket. McVay seems to have discovered the lost tapes from the Mike Martz offense. Jay Cutler got sacked a lot in that offense waiting for receivers to run 40 yards downfield. McVay’s effusive early praise of Stafford comes across as if his “brilliance” can finally be unleashed by running a Martz-inspired attack. I would like to see Stafford operate the play-action offense that Goff operated under. I do think Stafford was an upgrade to Goff but he needs a coach, not a cheerleader.Maybe Goff’s lack of preparation at times last season warranted McVay’s frustration with him. Perhaps the divorce was in the best interest of both parties? But McVay and the Rams were coming off a bye week on Sunday in their showdown against the Packers — and they got owned. The “offensive genius” seems stagnant. There are other quarterbacks and offensive head coaches who would face holy hell after three straight games with pick-sixes in what were all upset losses.Perhaps the offensive genius should take another lesson from Bill Belichick who has demonstrated from Tom Brady to now Mac Jones: be happy with what the defense offers (and the receiver will break out with a nice yards-after-catch one out of three times!). Interestingly, being enamored with the long ball was a challenge Patrick Mahomes faced earlier in the season. Or perhaps McVay should bypass his mid-game dopamine hits to instead take the advice from Joe Burrow who made these comments after Cincinnati’s blowout win against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Burrow commented on his renewed focus: “Just take care of the ball better. Eliminate some turnovers. We kind of fell in love with the big play, speaking of myself. The last two games, I’ve really just taken what the defenses have given me and stat lines aren’t dotty or impressive but it’s getting the job done. That’s all I care about is W’s, and whatever it takes to get the job done.”Best of luck — Frank.

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Is Justin Herbert in a Sophomore Slump?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season by winning four of their first five games. Justin Herbert picked up right where he left off after his spectacular rookie season in leading the team to this hot start. In those five games, he averaged 315.2 passing yards per game. He threw 13 touchdown passes to just three interceptions in those games with three games where he tossed at least three TDs. His 139 completions in 207 pass attempts were good for a 67.1% completion percentage. He completed at least 60.5% of his passes in all five starts.Yet Herbert has since taken a step back as the Chargers have lost four of their last six games. It all started in Baltimore on October 10th in a 34-6 loss to the Ravens. Herbert completed just 22 of 39 passes for 195 yards for a 56.4% completion rate in the loss. He only threw one touchdown pass and added an interception.Los Angeles returned home the next week to lose to New England, 27-24. Herbert completed just 18 of 35 passes for 223 yards and a 51.4% completion rate. He did throw two touchdown passes but he had two passes picked off as well. Herbert rebounded by completing 33 of 38 passes for 356 yards in a 27-24 victory at Philadelphia. He had two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory. After getting sacked five times in the previous two weeks, he was not sacked by the Eagles. Perhaps Herbert’s success can be attributed to facing a Philadelphia defense coached by defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Coming over from Indianapolis where he was an assistant coach along with the Eagles’ rookie head coach Nick Sirianni, the zone coverage that the Colts and Eagles play was not difficult for Herbert to solve. New England’s Bill Belichick has a well-established reputation for making things difficult on young quarterbacks. Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh started as a defensive coach and has one of the best defensive coordinators in Wink Martindale who commits to pressuring the opposing quarterback. Herbert faced another well-respected defensive head coach the following week against Mike Zimmer and the Minnesota Vikings. In that 27-20 loss, he completed only 20 of 34 passes for 195 yards with a touchdown and an interception. His 58.8% completion percentage in that game was the third time in a four-game stretch when he did not complete at least 60% of his passes. Herbert played better against a Pittsburgh Steelers team missing T.J. Watt, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick the following week. He completed 30 of 41 passes for 382 yards in the Chargers’ 41-37 victory. However, after having success against Mike Tomlin’s depleted defense, Herbert struggled last week in a 28-13 loss in Denver. He completed 28 of 44 passes for 303 yards against head coach Vic Fangio’s defense yet he threw two more interceptions in the setback. The downward trends are clear. In his last six starts, his completion percentage has dropped to 64.9% with Herbert averaging 276 passing yards per game. He has just 11 touchdown passes in those games along with seven interceptions. The numbers become even starker when removing the games against the Eagles and injured Steelers. Against Fangio, Zimmer, Belichick, and Harbaugh-coached teams, Herbert completed only 57.9% of his passes for 224 yards per game. He has only six touchdown passes against those four defensive coaches with five interceptions. Those four coaches saw their defenses sack Herbert ten times. Herbert had a historic rookie season where he completed 66.6% of his passes for 4336 yards with 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Perhaps being coached by a new offensive coordinator in Joe Lombardi and head coach Brandon Staley threw off his early opponents. Yet it appears that the better defensive coaches in the league have discovered some tendencies in the second-year quarterback. They call it a sophomore slump for a reason since it is not uncommon for rookies coming off breakout seasons to maintain that level of excellence. The competition catches up.Herbert appears to have the talent and work ethic to make adjustments. However, it may take him some time to figure out the best way to counter the defensive looks that Fangio, Zimmer, Belichick, and Harbaugh have used to frustrate him.Good luck - TDG.

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The Washington Football Team's Rushing Attack is Revitalizing their Defense

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The Washington Football Team has pulled off upset victories in three straight games after their 17-15 win against Seattle for Monday Night Football on the last Monday in November. After starting the season losing six of their first eight games, head coach Ron Rivera has this team in contention once again to win the NFC East against a faltering Dallas Cowboys team that has lost three of their last four games. At 5-6, the Football Team is two games behind the Cowboys in the division standings yet they still have both their games with their NFC East rivals on deck in December. Washington won the NFC East last season despite starting the year with a 1-5 record. The foundation for success for Rivera this season has been a renewed commitment to run the football coming off their bye week.The Football Team’s first game after the two weeks off and self-audit of their own tendencies when they hosted Tampa Bay. They shocked the defending Super Bowl champions three weeks ago with a 29-19 victory. The Football Team held Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense to just 273 yards. Washington was able to contain Brady by being on offense for over 39 minutes in that game. They ran the ball 34 times for 94 yards. Washington then upset Carolina on the road two weeks ago with a 27-21 win as a field goal underdog. They held the Panthers to only 297 yards with them being on offense for just over 24 minutes in that game. The Football Team’s offense was on the field for 35:53 minutes. They ran the ball 40 times for 190 yards. On Monday, the Football Team ran the ball 43 times for 152 yards. They controlled the clock on offense for 41:40 minutes after keeping Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the field for less than ten minutes in the first half. Seattle only gained 267 yards in the game. The success in the Washington ground game has come from the spectacular play of Antonio Gibson. The second-year running back has rushed the ball 72 times in the last three games for 270 yards. He has 81 touches in those three games when including catching the ball out of the backfield. He ran the ball 29 times for 111 yards against the Seahawks. Running the football to win the time of possession battle has helped to revitalize the Football Team’s defense that struggled early in the season. They allowed 424, 391, and 481 yards in their first three games of the year. The 432 yards per game those first three opponents averaged far eclipsed their 305 yards per game defensive average last year, the second-best mark in the league. Washington has held their last three opponents to 55 combined points, similar to the defensive run they went on last season when they held their last seven opponents to 20 points or less with a 15.0 points per game opponent average from week 11 to the end of the regular season. Their opponents during their winning streak have averaged only 279 yards per game with none gaining more than 297 yards. Being on offense for about 16 more minutes per game keeps the defense fresh while frustrating quarterbacks like Brady and Wilson. With this commitment to run the football and control the time of possession, Rivera may be poised to lead the Football Team to a second-straight playoff run despite a slow start to the season.Good luck - TDG.

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NCAA Top 25 Review: Overrated & Underrated

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

College Basketball is one of my favorite sports to handicap, so each month I plan on taking a look at who’s underrated and overrated in the Top 25:UnderratedHouston - The Cougars are currently 15th in the AP Top 25 and 14th in the Coaches Poll. I’ve got them in the top four of my power rankings and ESPN has them third in their BPI. This was a Final Four team last year, remember. The Cougars only loss was by two to Wisconsin in the Maui Invitational. They hold blowout victories over Oregon, Butler and Virginia, all by 18 points or greater. Per KenPom, UH is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. A team that should clearly be ranked higher. Arizona - The Wildcats are 6-0 and have risen to #11 in the poll. BPI is actually a bit lower, but my power ratings are very high on them, calling them one of the top teams in the entire country! Without question, Zona’s most impressive win came against Michigan, who was ranked #4 in the country at the time. The Wildcats won 80-62 (I had them) in Las Vegas, holding the Wolverines to 1 for 14 from three-point range. Their six wins have come by an average of 33.8 points/game. OverratedDuke - The Blue Devils just beat Gonzaga, which was just the second loss for the Zags in the last two years (the other being the National Championship Game). But I do not think Coach K’s team is really the best in the country. I’d say top six, but definitely not first. BPI is even less bullish, putting them at #11. Coming off the huge win over Gonzaga, it might be a good idea to fade Duke their next time out. They play Tuesday at Ohio State as part of the Big 10/ACC Challenge. Arkansas - The Razorbacks are considered Top 10 by both the AP and Coaches Polls. I’m not sure they are one of the Top 25 teams. BPI is also unconvinced. The Hogs are 6-0 SU, but have had a couple single digit victories thus far. The upcoming schedule is not all that challenging with games against Central Arkansas, Little Rock and Charlotte. But fading the Razorbacks (who will be big favorites) might be a good idea in those games. You can at least get an ATS win.Should Be InLSU - The Tigers are 7-0 SU. They are also 6-1 ATS. They are the team I played against with my *10* Game of the Month (for November) as I took the points in their matchup with Penn State. LSU needed OT to win that game and it’s the only time they didn’t cover. Still, I have much respect for this team, which belongs not just in the Top 25, but the Top 15. Iowa - Another team not currently in the Top 25, but they should be. The Hawkeyes moved to 7-0 with a 75-74 win at Virginia on Monday, part of the Big 10/ACC Challenge. There is a huge showdown looming with #2 Purdue this Friday. Win that game and the Hawkeyes are definitely going to be in the Top 25. As long as they aren’t blown out, they still deserve to be in (my view) as my power ratings say they are Top 20 team right now. 

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November Check-In: Europe's Big 4

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

It’s time for a monthly review of what’s been going on in Europe’s “Big 4” football (soccer) leagues and what might be on the horizon. Here, I’ll be looking at who’s in the top four of each league, who might be moving up/down and the battles to avoid relegation. Premier League (England)Chelsea (30 pts), Manchester City (29), Liverpool (28) & West Ham (23) are the top four here. Beyond them, no one else in the Premier League even has a positive goal differential! The top three have been dominant and it’s going to be one of those sides that wins the EPL. Chelsea has the most points right now (30), which is what matters, but Manchester City is ahead on expected points (xPts) and Liverpool has the best GD (+28). There is a big gap (-6.92) between the number of goals that Chelsea has allowed vs. what you’d expect them to have allowed. In fact, it’s the largest such gap in the league. However, my money is still on the Blues - the reigning Champions League holders - to win the Premier League title this seasonRemember that the top four teams in each domestic league qualify for next year’s Champions League. With the top three in the EPL being so dominant this year, the only question seems to be whether or not West Ham can hold on to the coveted fourth spot? West Ham’s YTD GD of +8 is not on par with the top three teams (all of who are +20 or better). But there’s not exactly a litany of obvious contenders who can overtake them. Arsenal is level on points, but the Gunners are 0-3 against the top three while being outscored 11-0. I actually think Crystal Palace is the side with the best shot of moving up. The Eagles are 5th in xPts and have been beaten only three times. But you have to wonder if a league-leading seven draws will come back to hurt them. As of now, I’d expect West Ham to hold onto fourth position, although the gap will widen between them and the top three.Down at the foot of the table, Norwich City and Newcastle are the locks for relegation. Newcastle has yet to even win a single match while Norwich has the worst GD (-20). As for who will be the third side condemned to relegation, I think the “best bets” would be either Burnley or Watford. Burnley only has one win while Watford is tied with Norwich for the most losses (8). La Liga (Spain)The top four here are currently: Real Madrid (33 pts), Atletico Madrid (29), Real Sociedad (29) and Sevilla (28). Important to note is that Sociedad, who I think is the shakiest of the four, has played one more match than the other three. The Spanish top flight is not as “top heavy” as it’s been in recent years, meaning none of these top four sides are locks to stay in their current position (well, maybe Real Madrid is). When looking at who could move up into the top four, I’d look past 5th place Real Betis and 6th place Rayo Vallecano and instead consider 7th place Barcelona or 8th place Athletic Bilbao. Barca was written off by many early on, but is actually second in the league in xPts. Bilbao, like Crystal Palace in the EPL, is hurt by being the “kings of the draw.” They’ve shared the points a league-high eight times. Still, I’d expect them to finish in the top six by season’s end. What’s interesting about La Liga this season is how all three of the newly promoted sides (particularly Rayo Vallecano) are performing better than expected and none are really a threat to be relegated. Poor Levante is currently in last place and winless, but they are actually 12th in xPts! Getafe and Granada are actually the bottom two in xPts, but Cadiz and Elche were last year’s bottom two (in xPts), suggesting that maybe it is they who deserve condemnation to the Segunda Division.Bundesliga (Germany)Going off goal differential and xPts, Bayern Munich is going to win this league for a 10th straight season. I said that last month and feel even more strongly about it now. I know Borussia Dortmund is only one point behind, but their GD is only +14 (compared to Bayern’s +29) and the gap in xPts is 11. Again, like I said last month, Dortmund is a lock to finish in the top four. But they will not overtake Bayern.Of the four leagues we’re discussing, the Bundesliga is the one where I think we could see the most change in the top four. Third place Bayer Leverkusen and fourth place Freiburg both seem a little shaky. In last month’s update, I mentioned how Freiburg was the Bundesliga’s only unbeaten side. Well, now they’ve dropped three straight fixtures. As for who could move into the top four, I’m still a believer in RB Leipzig, even though they’ve yet to win a single away match this season! Leverkusen is the only team still without an away loss, but that can’t possibly continue. Both Mainz and Hoffenheim are darkhorses as is Gladbach.No side in all of Europe is a bigger lock to be relegated than is the Bundesliga’s current last place team, Greuther Furth. They are not only still winless, but have lost 12 of 13 matches. Bet against them at will. Believe it or not, Arminia Bielefeld is actually lower on xPts than Greuther Furth, which is shocking. So those two are the obvious choices for automatic relegation. Whoever finishes third from the bottom has to play a relegation playoff against the third place team from the Bundesliga 2. Augsburg and Hertha Berlin seem like prime candidates for that spot.Serie A (Italy)The top four here are Napoli (35), AC Milan (32), Inter Milan (31) and Atlanta (31). Napoli is looking especially dominant this season with a 11-2-1 record and +23 GD. But Inter is actually higher on xPts. I think AC Milan is the shakiest of the top four, even though they were unbeaten after their first 12 matches. They are only sixth in the league in xPts. Atalanta should finish in the top four.While none of the top four teams have lost more than twice, everyone else in Serie A has at least five losses. So there’s a gap forming. Roma would be the obvious candidate to possibly replace AC Milan in the top four. I also think Juventus has played better than most realize, but it may just not be their year.Cagliari probably doesn’t deserve to finish in the bottom three, yet they probably still will. To me, Salernitana and Spezia are the two most likely teams to be relegated at season’s end. Empoli is nowhere near as good as its record, but has probably done enough to avoid finishing in the drop zone. Genoa and Venezia are other possible candidates to be playing in Serie B next season. 

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What If? College Football Playoff Scenarios Ahead of Championship Weekend

by Oskeim Sports

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

On Sunday, the College Football Playoff Committee will announce its final Top 25 poll which will include the top four and the programs that will play for this season’s national championship. The current top four – Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Alabama – looks solid, but nothing is set in stone as all of the FBS conferences will tee up their championship games this weekend. And anything can happen. Best Case Scenario There are a few best-case scenarios for the CFP committee. If Georgia, Michigan, and Cincinnati all win their respective conference championship, all three will make the playoff. The only issue would be the fourth spot. If current No. 5 Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 championship game, the Cowboys would likely move up into the spot vacated by Alabama. Remember, the Crimson Tide plays Georgia in the SEC title game. If the Cowboys lost to Baylor, then No. 6 Notre Dame (11-1) could move into that fourth spot. Regardless, the committee’s job would be much easier if the top three win this weekend. The Chaos Factor If the top three winning is the best-case scenario for the committee, all three of those teams losing is probably the worst-case scenario. Add in an Oklahoma State loss and you have essentially created complete chaos.Imagine, Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC. Michigan loses to Iowa to become a two-loss team. Cincinnati loses to Houston in the AAC championship and Oklahoma State falls to Baylor preventing the Cowboys from moving up. Now what?That whole scenario is probably the committee’s worst nightmare. What if Oregon stomps Utah in the Pac-12 title game? What if Baylor puts on a show against Oklahoma State to become the Big 12 champ? What if the SEC championship game comes down to the final minutes? Could both Alabama and Georgia make the top four? Somewhere in Between This college football season, we have seen plenty of chaos. There have been some monumental upsets and it would be safe to assume that we see at least one this weekend. That means the likely outcome for the CFP committee probably lies somewhere in between the best-case and worst-case scenarios. Oklahoma State will make the top four if it wins the Big 12 and one of Alabama, Michigan, or Cincinnati loses their conference championship. If Georgia loses to Alabama, there is still the possibility of a two-loss Alabama in the playoff. Remember, the committee leans SEC.  Notre Dame only makes the playoff if Alabama, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State lose. The Fighting Irish do have nine wins over Power 5 programs but wins over teams like Duke and Georgia Tech just don’t carry the same weight as Oklahoma State’s four wins over Top 25 programs, for example.  The interesting thing heading into this weekend is that Cincinnati already has a win over their AAC title game opponent – Houston. The same is true in the Big 12 where Oklahoma State beat Baylor 24-14 earlier this season. It’s hard to beat a team twice in one season.  Imagine a scenario where the Bearcats and Cowboys both lose. The SEC championship game ends up close. That would probably result in both Georgia and Alabama making the cut. If Michigan won the Big Ten, it would be in and the committee would have to once again decide on the fourth spot.  

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NHL Off the Post: November 30th

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

We're almost two full months into the NHL season and there are some surprises both at the top and the bottom of the league standings. Here's a quick look around the league at some areas of interest as you navigate your weekly hockey handicapping.All CapsThe Capitals are somewhat surprisingly tied atop the NHL standings with 33 points and a 14-3-5 overall record. I say surprising because many expected the Caps to perhaps take a step back with an aging veteran core, note to mention the fact that they've have had to deal with some adversity, playing without the likes of Nick Backstrom and T.J. Oshie for much of the campaign. Instead we've seen Washington lean heavily on Alex Ovechkin and what has been a rock solid blue line and goaltending tandem of Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek. The Caps wrap up a quick two-game road trip with a stop in Florida on Tuesday before opening a four-game homestand.Singing the BluesSaturday's lopsided win over Columbus notwithstanding, the Blues have had a tough go lately, failing to register consecutive wins since opening the season with five straight victories. It's been a case of 'feast-or-famine' offensively while St. Louis has had a tough time keeping the puck out of its own net, allowing 25 goals over its last eight games alone. Backup goaltender Ville Husso has actually outperformed starter Jordan Binnington to this point, posting a .936 save percentage in delivering three wins in four starts. Unfortunately for the Blues, their next four games come against two of the league's best teams in the Lightning and Panthers. Philadelphia free-fallOnly the Covid-ravaged Islanders sit lower than the Flyers in the Metropolitan Division. They haven't won a game since November 16th. Their last victory by more than a single goal came way back on November 2nd against the lowly Coyotes. A punchless offense has been the main culprit as Philadelphia has scored two goals or less in 12 of its last 15 games. Next up is a road date against the Rangers before returning home for two difficult games against the Lightning (who they've already lost twice to this season) and the Avalanche. Release the KrakenDon't look now but the expansion Kraken have won four of their last five games and after a winnable game in Detroit on Wednesday (the Red Wings will be on the back half of a back-to-back) they'll return to the Pacific Northwest for a four-game homestand. Still concerning is the fact that Seattle can't seem to sort things out in goal where Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger have both struggled to the tune of .890 and .876 save percentages, respectively. As well as the Kraken have played lately, they're still just a point ahead of the last-place Canucks in the Pacific Division. Note entering Wednesday's contest that the 'over' is a perfect 10-0 with Seattle coming off a game in which it gave up four or more goals this season (they defeated Buffalo 7-4 on Monday).

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 11/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and the EPL.Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:40 PM ET. Brooklyn hosts New York on TNT as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 217. Toronto plays at home against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite. Three games in the NBA start at 10:10 PM ET. Portland is at home against Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 216.5. Phoenix hosts Golden State on TNT as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 219.5. The Los Angeles Lakers visit Sacramento as a 4-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. Three games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. Boston plays Detroit as a -260 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Florida hosts Washington as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6. New Jersey is at home against San Jose as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three more games in the NHL begin at 8:08 PM ET. St. Louis plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Nashville hosts Columbus as a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Minnesota is at home against Arizona as a -400 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina travels to Dallas at 8:38 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Los Angeles plays Anaheim as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. The New York Islanders game with Philadelphia got postponed due to the COVID outbreak in the Islanders locker room.Eleven games are on national television in college basketball. Butler hosts Saginaw-Valley on FS1 at 5 PM ET. Four games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Connecticut plays at home against Maryland-Eastern Shore as a 33-point favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 134. Georgetown is at home against Longwood on FS2. Syracuse hosts Indiana on ESPN2 in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Pittsburgh plays at home against Minnesota on ESPNU in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 129. Purdue hosts Florida State on ESPN in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game as an 11-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Four games begin at 9 PM ET. Marquette is at home against Jackson State on the CBS Sports Network as a 17.5-point favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 134.5. Wake Forest hosts Northwestern on ESPNU in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge contest as a 2-point favorite with a total of 144. Rutgers plays at home against Clemson on ESPN2 in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge game as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Creighton is at home against North Dakota State on FS2 as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 138. Duke visits Ohio State on ESPN in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge at 9:30 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 147. Matchweek 14 in the English Premier League begins with two matches. Newcastle United hosts Norwich City on Peacock at 2:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite at Play MGM with a total of 2.5. Crystal Palace travels to Leeds United on the NBC Sports Network at 2.5 in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5.

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Ness Notes: Long Way to CBB's Final 4

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021

The college football season is entering Championship Saturday (December 4) and the final CFP rankings come out Sunday, when its version of a 'Final 4' will be revealed. The bowl season opens December 17. The CFP semifinals are set to be played on Friday, December 31 and the national championship game will be played on Monday, January 10 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Meanwhile, somewhat 'flying under the radar,' the 2021-22 college basketball season tipped off on Tuesday, November 9, meaning Tuesday, November 30 marks the beginning of its fourth week. Selection Sunday isn't until March 13, 2022, when 32 automatic bids will be handed out, along with 36 "at large" ones. The Final 4 is set for Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) for April 2 and 4. That's a L-O-N-G way off but let me take 'a peek' at what's happened so far.The AP's preseason No. 1 team was Gonzaga, to no one's surprise. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few has led Gonzaga to 21 straight NCAA berths in his 22 years (2020 tourney was cancelled), doing everything BUT win a national championship. However, he's led the Bulldogs into the title game TWICE in the last four seasons. Last year's loss was a 'killer,' as Gonzaga was No. 1 wire-to-wire and at 31-0, was looking to match Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, which was the last team to go unbeaten (32-0) and win the title. However, 73 years after it last played for a national title, Baylor 'jumped all over' the Bulldogs early in the game and never looked back in an 86-70 victory. It was Baylor's first national title and extinguished Gonzaga’s ambitions for end-to-end perfection.Sliding in behind Gonzaga at No. 2 was UCLA, which lost 93-90 in OT to Gonzaga in the national semifinals, on Jalen Suggs' 37-foot three-pointer. Counting down the rest of the preseason top-10 found Kansas at No. 3, Villanova at No. 4, Texas at No. 5, Michigan at No. 6, Purdue at No. 7, defending champion Baylor at No. 8, Duke at No. 9 and Kentucky at No. 10. Duke and Kentucky are college basketball 'Blue Bloods' but Duke was coming off a 13-11 season (first non-NCAA tourney team since 1995) and Kentucky was coming off a 9-16 year. In particular, the Wildcats opened last season as a preseason top-10 team but finished with the program's worst record in over 30 years and recorded the WORST record by an AP preseason top-10 team since the poll was started back in 19611Checking in on the latest AP poll (Monday, Nov 29), NINE of the preseason top-10 teams remain in the top-10. The lone exception is Michigan (preseason No. 6), which is 4-2 with losses to Seton Hall (67-65 at home) and 80-62 to Arizona in Las Vegas. Michigan currently ranks 24th but note that 6-0 Arizona is up to No. 11 under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd, who made his poll debut the previous week. As for Seton Hall, the Pirates lost to Ohio St in its next game after beating Michigan but at No. 25, is the "last time in."Last week began (Tuesday) with then-No. 1 Gonzaga trouncing then-No. 2 UCLA 83-63 in Las Vegas but Friday, "The Dookies," in Coach K's final season, beat Gonzaga 84-81 in Las Vegas. So guess which school 'popped up' as No. 1 in Monday's AP poll? 7-0 Duke, the school everyone loves to hate, jumped from No. 5 to No. 1, a position Coach K is VERY familiar with. Coach K has now been ranked No. 1 for the 127th time in his career, ahead of some guy named John Wooden (121), who I'm told, coached UCLA back in the 1800s (I think around the Civil War?). FYI...Duke has been ranked No. 1 more than any other school (145 times), with UCLA checking in at 134 No. 1 rankings.Gonzaga dropped to No.3 in the latest rankings, while UCLA fell to No. 5. "Movin' on Up" is 6-0 Purdue at No. 2, giving the school its highest ranking since the 187-89 season. That team won the Big 10 at 16-2 (no conference tourney) and finished the regular season 27-3. It was a No. 1 seed but lost in the Sweet 16, finishing 29-4 (remember Gene Keady?). Moving in at No. 4 (up from No. 6) is defending champion Baylor, which is 7-0 after winning The Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. The rest of the top-10 features No. 6 Villanova (despite a 4-2 record), No. 7 Texas (4-1), No. 8 Kansas (5-1), No. 9 Kentucky (5-1) and No. 10 Arkansas (6-0).6-0 Florida made the biggest jump, moving up NINE spots to No. 14, while 5-1 Memphis had the biggest fall, dropping NINE spots to No. 18, after losing to unranked Iowa State by 19 points in the NIT Season Tip-Off championship game. However, Iowa St is one of three new teams in the recent AP top-25. Head coach T.J. Otzelberger took over an Iowa St program coming off a two-win season that included going 0-18 in Big 12 play and has the Cyclones at 6-0. 5-2 Michigan State joined the poll at No. 22  after beating UConn on the way to the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game, while 5-1 Wisconsin jumped in at No. 23 after winning the relocated Maui Invitational in Las Vegas. Falling out were No. 14 Illinois, No. 16 St Bonny's (Bonnies were ranked in the preseason poll for the first time since 1971!) and No. 25 Xavier.Let's see how long Duke can hold its No. 1 ranking. The Blue Devils get tested Tuesday, Nov 30 at Ohio St in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Then again, let me note that Duke is 19-3 all-time in the Challenge! Gonzaga may have fallen from No. 1 to No. 3 but the Bulldogs have now been ranked in 99 consecutive polls, the longest active streak by a WIDE margin. Villanova owns the second-longest streak at 44, followed by Alabama (41) The only other schools with streaks of 20 or more consecutive rankings are Houston (30) and Texas (21).Take note that NONE of the four schools with more than 2,000 career wins are among the above list. Entering the 2021-22 season, Kentucky led all schools with 2,3327 career wins, followed by Kansas (2,323), North Carolina (2,294) and Duke (2,2114). Join me in the middle of next week when I'll break down the final CFP standings/rankings.Good luck...Larry

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Good Teams Win, Great Teams Cover!

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

Every week in the NFL it seems like at least one top team is losing a game they should not. The Titans have lost to the Jets and the Texans. The Bills lost to the Jags. The Bucs even dropped a dud against the Football Team. Seeing this along with many other similar games makes people wonder who is actually legit out of the top teams? The gambling answer: Good teams win, great teams cover.  Top records ATS through week 12: Green Bay           10-2-0   Arizona                 8-3-0Dallas                    8-3-0      New England      8-4-0Detroit                  7-4-0Buffalo                 6-4-1Indianapolis        7-5-0      Tennessee          7-5-0       Essentially this tells us which teams have over performed their expectations. It shows team’s ability to keep games close against quality opponents while not playing down to the level of bad teams. The Packers, Cardinals, and Cowboys top the list and have proven to be the most consistent teams in the NFL against the spread. Other quality teams have struggled with consistency like the Buccaneers (5-6-0) and the Rams (4-7-0).  In 2020, 3 of the teams that made it to conference championship weekend finished with top 5 records ATS during the regular season (Chiefs were the one team not to). Similarly, in 2019, both Super Bowl teams finished in the top 5 which gives a good indicator that being able to cover the spread consistently proves that you are an elite team.  There is still plenty of time for these teams to shift around but currently the Packers and Cardinals seem to be in Control in the NFC while New England and Buffalo control the AFC. This matches both the eye test as well as the ATS rankings. All 4 of those teams rank top 5 in total defensive points allowed and have shown the ability to get big stops when needed.  The Bills and Patriots meet twice in the next four weeks and will determine who wins the AFC East and gains control in the conference. The Titans need to go back to the drawing board during their bye week and figure out what to do without King Henry. Currently both conferences are open for the taking but watch ATS records for a bit deeper look at who is playing better than expected. 

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NCAA Basketball Rankings: Overrated/Underrated

by Nelly's Sports

Monday, Nov 29, 2021

NCAA Basketball Rankings: Overrated/Underrated While the college football rankings will provide endless debate in the next week, it is time to start dissecting the college basketball rankings now that most teams have a few meaningful games under their belts. Here is a look at a few teams checking in a bit too high and a few teams that may be underrated at the end November in the current AP Poll.  POSSIBLY OVERRATED: #2 Purdue: The Boilermakers have wins over North Carolina and Villanova but those results may not be quite what those program’s reputations suggest at least at this point in the season. North Carolina is in a major transition season and lost by 17 to Tennessee the day after giving Purdue a good test. That game was very tight late despite the nine-point final, even with the Tar Heels missing one of their top players. Purdue’s win over Villanova featured an epic comeback in the final nine minutes with hot 3-point shooting while Villanova uncharacteristically shot 53 percent on free throws. Purdue will be a good team this year but a loss or two in December looks possible with five top 100 games upcoming as this is not a team that is going to create separation in a tough top tier of the Big Ten.  #10 Arkansas: The Razorbacks are 6-0 but without a top 50 win and they struggled vs. Cincinnati in their most difficult game so far this season, winning by six but trailing in the final minutes. Arkansas was handed a 32-13 edge in free throws in that game for a fortunate result in Kansas City. Arkansas could wind up 12-0 before the SEC season as the schedule is incredibly weak outside of a game with Oklahoma in early December. Eric Musselman’s team made the Elite 8 last season but wasn’t far from being eliminated in each of the first three games last March as some of his game management has been questionable. The starting five is very small by major conference standards with the addition of Miami transfer Chris Lykes and this team has shot below 30 percent on 3-point shots this season.  #17 Connecticut: The Huskies finished 15-8 last season before being bounced in the Round of 64 as a #7 seed. This year’s team is 6-1 but the only meaningful wins were both overtime results, beating Auburn in double-OT and VCU in OT while going 2-1 in the Bahamas. So far this season Connecticut has shot more than five percent better from 3-point range compared to last season and has been a big beneficiary of turnovers, something that isn’t typical of Dan Hurley defense. The Huskies could climb further with two light games this week but tests vs. West Virginia and St. Bonaventure lurk as difficult games ahead of the Big East season.  #19 Iowa State: The Cyclones picked up two double-digit wins in Brooklyn last week surprising Xavier and Memphis to reach 6-0. Iowa State also beat Oregon State early in the season for a promising start for T.J. Otzelberger in his first season with the program, coming from UNLV. Two wins have been against teams outside the top 300 however and the offensive numbers have been marginal for this group. Iowa State had 33 free throw attempts for a big edge vs. Memphis and shot 50 percent from 3-point range vs. Xavier, things that are not likely to be repeated often for this group that is still in a significant transition season.  POSSIBLY UNDERRATED:  #15 Houston: One loss has bumped the Cougars down in the rankings despite five top 150 caliber wins including likely top 50 results against Virginia and Oregon. Houston has endured a tough non-conference path and simply got caught in Las Vegas with a red-hot shooting game from Wisconsin, who won the Maui Invitational. Houston shot 53 percent from the line in that game and was out of sync on offense but still nearly rallied for an epic comeback, losing by just two despite trailing by 20 at halftime. This squad has the makings of a team capable of another Final Four run and they will have a prominent opportunity to show it playing at Alabama next week.  #20 USC: Evan Mobley is impossible to replace but Isaiah Mobley has done his part while Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis joins a veteran roster with great size. Free throw shooting has been an adventure this season, but the Trojans are 6-0 with only two home games. The only high-quality win was a 15-point win over San Diego State with a dominant defensive performance. USC may be overshadowed in Los Angeles with UCLA’s Final Four run and early season win over Villanova, but it won’t be a surprise if USC is ahead of UCLA in the Pac-12 standings by the end of the season. The Trojans have a favorable pair of games to open the conference season and should be in good form before the tougher games on the schedule hit in late December and early January.  Unranked Illinois: The Illini have started just 4-2 but this team should not be discounted as a Big Ten and national contender again this season. Kofi Cockburn’s three-game suspension was well publicized but four other regular contributors have missed time as Brad Underwood has had six different starting lineups in six games. The ACC Challenge, two Big Ten games, and a big game with Arizona are the next four games on the schedule as Illinois will have an opportunity to deliver a few quality wins and once the roster issues are sorted out this team still has a very high ceiling.  Unranked Louisville: The Cardinals are getting penalized for a loss at home to Furman in early November. That game was an overtime game where Furman had a big edge at the line and made 12 3-point shots. Furman has been an elite Southern Conference team for the past four years under Bob Richey and the Paladins nearly beat Cincinnati and Alabama in early season action last year, while beating Villanova in November 2018. Louisville has two top 50 wins away from home with decisive results in the Bahamas and they should provide Michigan State a test this week. Overall, the non-conference path is quite tough for the Cardinals relative to their ACC peers as this group may be underrated ahead of the conference season. 

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