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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/05/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jan 05, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and CBB action.Eleven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Philadelphia visits Orlando as a -7.5 point road favorite. Washington is at home against Houston as a 6.5-point favorite. Three more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Boston plays at home against San Antonio as an 8.5-point favorite. Brooklyn travels to Indiana as a 6.5-point road favorite. Golden State is at Dallas as in the opening game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:40 PM ET. The Warriors won their fifth game in their last six with a 115-108 victory against Miami as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday. They improved their record to 29-7. The Mavericks won their fourth game in their last five with their 103-89 victory against Denver as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Golden State is a 5-point road favorite.Two more NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at home against Toronto as a 9-point favorite. Minnesota hosts Oklahoma City as an 8-point favorite. Three games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Portland is at home against Miami as a 1-point favorite. Atlanta visits Sacramento in a pick ‘em contest. Utah travels to Denver at 10:10 PM ET in the second game of the doubleheader on ESPN. The Jazz won their seventh game in their last eight with their 115-104 win at New Orleans as a 10-point favorite on Monday. The Nuggets had their three-game winning streak end with their 103-89 loss at Dallas on Monday. The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. Toronto plays at home against Edmonton at 7:08 as a -210 money line favorite with the total set at 6.5. Pittsburgh hosts St. Louis at 7:38 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders/Vancouver game got postponed due to a COVID outbreak.Nine games are on national television in college basketball. St. John’s is at home on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 152.5. Four games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Florida plays at home against Alabama on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Louisville is at home against Pittsburgh on ESPNU as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 127.5. Dayton hosts VCU on the CBS Sports Network as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 125. UNC-Greensboro is at home against Furman on ESPN News as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 128.5. Villanova plays at home against Creighton on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 133. Three more games begin at 9 PM ET. Iowa State hosts Texas Tech on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127. North Carolina is at Notre Dame on ESPN2 as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 147. Missouri State visits Bradley on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.

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NFL Super Bowl LVI Contenders and Pretenders – AFC

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, Jan 04, 2022

NFL Super Bowl LVI Contenders and Pretenders – AFCWith one week of regular season action left before the post-season gets underway, here is my list of Contenders and Pretenders from bottom to top in the AFC:1) Baltimore – Pretender – The ultimate pretender it would take a minor miracle for the Ravens to make the playoffs but they are mathematically alive. If they miraculously get in, this team (recent 5-game losing streak) is going nowhere. 2) Pittsburgh – Pretender – Congrats to Big Ben for getting a win in final home game of his career and that is where this story ends. Still a chance to get into the post-season, but this team, even if did get in, does not have the offensive production to advance in the playoffs. 3) Las Vegas – Pretender – The Raiders still have a chance to get in the playoffs, but their tumultuous season -- plagued by the Jon Gruden firing and the off-the-field players incidents -- is just too much to overcome. No post-season success here if they even get in! 4) Indianapolis – Contender – Yes the Colts really blew it last week but now they take on a very bad Jacksonville team and the Jaguars are the only thing that stands between Indy and the post-season. That said, it's highly likely they get in and a well-coached team with some experience at QB and a solid defense will always be able to surprise and contend. Before last week’s loss, the Colts had won 9 of 12 games. 5) Los Angeles Chargers – Pretender – Tough match-up closing the season with the Raiders so they may not even make the post-season. Even if they do, the Chargers' rather weak ground game is a concern on offense.  And a late season loss to the Texans says a lot about this team.  They will be "one and done" in my opinion, if they make post-season. 6) New England – Contender – Such a strong run for the Patriots who have been one of the hottest teams in the league in latter half of season. When your coach is Bill Belichick and you have a solid defense and you are a red hot team, then you are a threat to make a post-season run for sure. 7) Buffalo – Contender – Last year’s playoff experience helps them this season and they have a solid ground game.  Also, Buffalo's QB, Josh Allen, is capable of getting hot at the right time. 8) Cincinnati – Pretender – Have not won a playoff game in 3 decades. The Bengals won the division which is a major accomplishment for them. Burrow’s first playoff experience is unlikely to go well and this is particularly true with a bad offensive line in front of him. 9) Kansas City – Pretender – The Chiefs just have not been the same this season. The offense has inconsistencies. Mahomes just has not been as solid at QB. The Chiefs' defense has too many bad games. This Chiefs seem to be on too much of a decline to make it all the way to the Super Bowl this season although I will say the field in the AFC does appear to be quite wide open. 10) Tennessee – Contender – Should be able to get home field as their final game is against the downtrodden Texans. When a team can run like the Titans can, has a respectable defense, gets a bye week to open the post-season, and has all their games at home, plus is well-coached, you have a chance at getting to the big game!

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NFL Super Bowl LVI Contenders and Pretenders – NFC

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, Jan 04, 2022

NFL Super Bowl LVI Contenders and Pretenders – NFCWith one week of regular season action left before the post-season gets underway, here is my list of Contenders and Pretenders from bottom to top in the NFC:1) New Orleans – Pretender. Have a chance to make the post-season because SF facing a Rams team with plenty to play for in the final week. But the Saints QB situation in the post-Brees era is why this team won’t go far even if they get into the playoffs. 2) San Francisco – Pretender – Have a decent chance to miss the post-season because they will face a motivated team in the final week of the season. Even if they get in they won’t go far  based on the Jimmy Garoppolo thumb injury holding this team back.3) Philadelphia – Pretender – The inexperience of rookie HC Nick Sirianni and QB Jalen Hurts in post-season action will hurt this team come playoff time. 4) Arizona – Contender – Still has a chance to win the division but would need to win final game plus see the Rams lose in final week. Either way, if they get Conner back at RB and Murray plays well at QB like he is certainly fully capable of, this team can make a run. They impressed at Dallas in Week 17 in a clutch spot.5) Dallas – Pretender – The home loss to Arizona in Week 17 will have a carryover effect into the post-season. This team just too inconsistent to make a legitimate run at winning it all this year. Also had home losses to Las Vegas and Denver which says a lot about this team.6) Tampa Bay – Contender – Guy by the name of Tom Brady is the QB and you know the post-season experience he brings plus Leonard Fournette should be back from injury in time for the playoffs. No longer the team to beat and I don’t see them coming out of the NFC but they are still a key contender.7) Los Angeles Rams – Pretender – I know many would argue this point with me but the Rams fall into this category because I just can’t fully trust Stafford at QB. Over the last 3 games of the season during a crucial push for securing the division title he has more INTs (6) than TDs (5). I know they have Cupp and Beckham as receiving options but proceed with caution as Rams could ultimately have turnovers be their undoing. 8) Green Bay – Contender – Home field locked up and a guy by the name of Aaron Rodgers – loaded with experience – is the quarterback. Also, incredible season for WR Davante Adams and this Packers team plays well on defense too. They are top contender no doubt. Upsets happen and are part of the game, but this is a legitimate top contender to represent the NFC!

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jan 04, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and CBB.The college football bowl season continues with Kansas State playing LSU on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Wildcats lost their final two games in the regular season after their 22-17 loss at Texas as a 3-point underdog on November 26th. Their record has dropped to 7-5. The Tigers are on a two-game winning streak after they upset Texas A&M, 27-24, as a 6-point underdog on November 27th. LSU improved their record to 6-6 with the victory. Kansas State is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings).Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Memphis as a 3-point favorite. Toronto plays at home against San Antonio as a 5.5-point favorite. New York is at home against Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite at 7:40 PM ET. Phoenix visits New Orleans at 8:10 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Sacramento at 10:40 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:08 PM ET for three games. Boston hosts New Jersey as a -250 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Florida is at home against Calgary as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 6. Tampa Bay travels to Columbus at 7:38 PM ET as a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. San Jose plays at Detroit at 7:38 PM ET in a game where both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Colorado visits Chicago at 8:38 PM ET as a -230 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Winnipeg plays at Arizona at 9:08 PM ET as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games conclude the card at 10:08 PM ET. Vegas plays at home against Nashville as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Anaheim hosts Philadelphia as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games got canceled due to COVID outbreaks: Washington/Montreal and the New York Islanders/Seattle.Nine games are on national television in college basketball. Akron hosts Ohio on the CBS Sports Network at 6 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Four games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Baylor plays at home against Oklahoma on ESPN2 as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5. LSU is at home against Kentucky on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138.5. Texas A&M travels to Georgia on ESPNU as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 140.5. Illinois plays at Minnesota on FS1 as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 140.Seton Hall visits Butler on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 131. Three NCAAB conclude the card at 9 PM ET. Kansas plays at Oklahoma State on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Providence is at home Marquette on FS1 as a 2-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Memphis hosts Tulsa on ESPNU as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 143.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 03, 2022

The Monday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.Week 18 in the National Football concludes with Pittsburgh hosting Cleveland on ESPN and ESPN2 at 8:15 PM ET. The Steelers lost their second game in their last three games with their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh fell behind early and went into halftime trailing, 23-0. A -3 net turnover margin contributed to derailing the Steelers' efforts. Ben Roethlisberger completed 23 of 35 passes for 159 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception in a losing effort. Their record dropped to 7-7-1 with the loss. The Browns lost their third game in their last four with their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog on December 25th. Cleveland outgained the Packers in yardage, 408-311, but they could not overcome a -4 net turnover margin. Baker Mayfield completed 21 of 36 passes for 222 yards with two touchdown passes. He also threw four interceptions. Cleveland is 7-8 on the season and got eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday's results. Pittsburgh still has slim playoff possibilities, and they aspire to avoid the first losing season under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Ten games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:08 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against Houston as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 217. Washington is at home against Charlotte as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 231.5. Brooklyn hosts Memphis at 7:38 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Three more games start at 8:08 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Orlando as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 221. Milwaukee is at home against Detroit as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 226. Utah visits New Orleans as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. Dallas plays at home against Denver at 8:38 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 212.5. Two more NBA games begin at 10:08 PM ET. Golden State hosts Miami as an 11-point favorite with a total of 214.5. Atlanta travels to Portland as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 215.5.The National Hockey League has one game on its docket. Edmonton plays at New York against the Rangers at 7:08 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina/Toronto and Minnesota/Ottawa games got postponed because of a COVID outbreak. Thirteen games take place in college basketball involving Division I teams. One game is on national television. Towson travels to Drexel at 6 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 139.Matchweek 21 in the English Premier League continues with one match at 12:30 PM ET on the USA Network. Manchester United hosts Wolverhampton as a -1.75 goal line favorite at BetRivers with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 02, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.Week 17 in the National Football kicks off with 15 games. Nine games start at 1 PM ET. New England hosts Jacksonville as a 16-point favorite with the total set at 41.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Philadelphia visits Washington as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Tampa Bay plays at New York against the Jets as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5. Tennessee is at home against Miami as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 40. Indianapolis plays at home against Las Vegas as an 8-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Kansas City travels to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 51. Chicago hosts the New York Giants as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 36. Buffalo is at home against Atlanta as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. The Los Angeles Rams are at Baltimore as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 46.5.Five more NFL games start in the second-afternoon window. Two games begin at 4:05 PM ET. San Francisco hosts Houston as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 44. The Los Angeles Chargers are at home against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Three more NFL games kick off at 4.25 PM ET. New Orleans is at home against Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 37.5. Dallas plays at home against Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Seattle hosts Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5. Green Bay plays at home against Minnesota on NBC at 8:20 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Packers are a 13-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Seven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Toronto is at home against New York at 3:40 PM ET as a 7-point favorite. Three games tip-off at 6:10 PM ET. Boston hosts Orlando as an 11-point favorite. Cleveland is at home against Indiana as a 4-point favorite. Miami travels to Sacramento as a 2.5-point road favorite. Two more NBA games start at 7:10 PM ET. Phoenix travels to Charlotte as a 2-point road favorite. Dallas is at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Minnesota at 9:40 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has seven games on its slate. Tampa Bay travels to New York to play the Rangers at 12:38 PM ET, with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games drop the puck at 1:08 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at home against San Jose as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 6. Boston visits Detroit as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more NHL games begin at 3:08 PM ET. Washington is at home against New Jersey as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 6. Colorado is a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Vegas hosts Winnipeg as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Calgary travels to Chicago at 7:08 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas/Arizona contest got canceled because of a COVID outbreak. Five games are on national television in college basketball. North Carolina plays at Boston College on ESPN2 at 1 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 140. Two games tip-off at 2 PM ET. SMU plays at home against Central Florida on ESPNU as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Saint Louis is at home against Richmond on the CBS Sports Network as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Houston travels to Temple on ESPN at 5 PM ET as a -12 point road favorite with an over/under of 128.5. Louisville plays at Georgia Tech on ESPN2 at 6 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 133. Matchweek 21 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. Three matches start at 9 AM ET. Aston Villa visits Brentford on Peacock in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Brighton and Hove Albion travel to Everton on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match up with a total of 2.5. Leeds United hosts Burnley on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Liverpool on the USA Network at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 01, 2022

The Saturday New Year’s Day sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with fives games. Arkansas plays Penn State on ESPN2 at noon ET in the Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. The Razorbacks are a 3-point favorite with the total set at 48.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more games kick off at 1 PM ET. Notre Dame faces Oklahoma State on ESPN in the Fiesta Bowl at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game is a pick ‘em with an over/under of 45.5. Kentucky goes against Iowa on ABC in the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Wildcats are a 3-point favorite with a total of 44. Ohio State battles Utah on ESPN at 5 PM ET in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The Buckeyes are a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 64. Mississippi plays Baylor on ESPN at 8:45 PM ET in the Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Rebels are a 1-point favorite with a total of 58.Six games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Milwaukee hosts New Orleans at 6:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Two more games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. San Antonio visits Detroit as a 4.5-point road favorite. Chicago travels to Washington as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Brooklyn plays at home against Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite with a total of 213.5. Denver is at Houston at 8:10 PM ET as a 6-point road favorite. Utah is at home against Golden State at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Three games drop the puck at 1:08 PM ET. Boston plays Buffalo as a -340 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida hosts Montreal as a -450 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Carolina travels to Columbus as a -160 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Two more games begin at 2:08 PM ET. The New York Islanders are at home against Edmonton as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Nashville is at home against Chicago as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Two more NHL games start at 7:08 PM ET. Minnesota hosts St. Louis in the Winter Classic at Twins Field on TNT. The Wild are a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto plays at home against Ottawa as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vancouver visits Seattle at 10:08 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Los Angeles is at home against Philadelphia at 10:38 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Ten games are on national television in college basketball. Three games tip-off at noon ET. Texas is at home against West Virginia on ESPNU as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 122.5. Memphis travels to Wichita State on CBS as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 142.5. Creighton is at Marquette on FS1 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 145. Two more games start at 2 PM ET. Baylor visits Iowa State on ESPNU as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 132. Louisiana Tech plays at home against Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Providence travels to DePaul on Fox at 3 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 140.5. Wyoming is at home against Boise State on the CBS Sports Network at 4 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131. Miami (FL) plays at home against Wake Forest on ESPNU at 6 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 150.5. Oklahoma hosts Kansas State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 128. Nevada is at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 9 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 158.5. Matchweek 21 in the English Premier League begins with three matches on the USA Network. Manchester City visits Arsenal at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Tottenham plays at Watford at 10 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. West Ham United is at Crystal Palace at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

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Georgia Followed the Michigan State Blueprint to beat Michigan

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Georgia appeared in a good position to have success running the football against Michigan in the college football semifinals. In our report recommending to lay the points with the Bulldogs (our College Football Playoff Game of the Year), we identified that the Wolverines “can be beaten by teams with strong rushing attacks that stick to that approach.” Earlier in the season, Michigan State gouged the Wolverines with a 6.7 yards per carry average led by Kenneth Walker III. The Spartans averaged 8.1 yards per play in handing Michigan their only loss of the season. Yet it was not just Michigan State that found success running the football against the Wolverines. Rutgers ran the ball 42 times against them for 196 yards and a 4.67 yards per carry average. Maryland ran the ball 44 times of 181 yards with a 4.11 yards per carry average. Led by running back Zamir White, Georgia averages 5.3 yards per carry with their ground game contributing 195 yards of the 442 yards they produce per game. They appeared to be in a great position to find success running against the Wolverines just as these three other Big Ten teams had done.Michigan had been exposed at times this season against opponents going up-tempo on offense. First-year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald comes from the Baltimore Ravens where substitution packages on defense are common defensive tactics. Opponents going up-tempo makes it difficult to substitute players and MacDonald has been caught trying to do too much in getting favorable matchups with either penalties or players not ready to defend the play. Michigan was not used to the national stage in the playoffs. They had not even covered a bowl game point spread in their last four opportunities. In their 34-11 victory against the Wolverines in the playoff semifinals on the last day of 2021, Georgia ran the ball 35 times for 190 yards. While they were not as efficient as Michigan State was, they were not reliant on one bell-cow back as the Spartans were. The Bulldogs averaged 5.4 yards per carry led by four running backs who each carried the ball four times. White was the featured back with 12 carries for 54 yards. Georgia's ability to run the football opened things up for Stetson Bennett and the Bulldogs passing game. Bennett completed 20 of 30 passes for 310 yards with three touchdown passes and without an interception. Running the football helped take some of the pressure off the Bulldogs' defense that came into the playoffs with something to prove. Georgia gave up 536 yards in their 41-24 loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide averaged 7.66 yards per game against the Bulldogs, yet Georgia had covered the point spread in nineteen of their last twenty-seven games on the road after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play. The Bulldogs had only covered once in their last three games in a 45-0 win at Georgia Tech before playing Michigan, yet they have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. This is a football program that would not be satisfied by just reaching the national championship game. Kirby Smart already did that with this program four years ago when they lost to Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa's second-half comeback in an overtime thriller four years ago. This program has playoff experience, and these players have competed in many high-profile showdowns given their competition in the SEC. This Wolverines team was just 2-4 last year. Georgia has covered the point spread in six of their last eight bowl games. They have covered the point spread in ten of their last fourteen games played on a neutral field when the oddsmakers install them as the favorite. That is why we recommended taking Georgia minus the points. Now all eyes are on yet another rematch between Georgia and Alabama. Good luck - TDG.

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A Failure to Establish the Run Dooms Michigan against Georgia

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Georgia entered the SEC Championship having not allowed more than the 378 yards that Tennessee put up against them in a 41-17 loss to the Bulldogs. But Alabama generated 536 yards of offense against Georgia en route to winning the SEC Championship by a 41-24 score. The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack in that game — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I did not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy in the College Football Semifinals. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan had thrown the ball more than 38 times just twice before that game. They wanted to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines like to deploy inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Sure enough, Michigan only gained 84 yards on the ground in 27 carries in their 34-11 loss to the Bulldogs in the College Football Semifinals on Friday. Take away the non-sack yards and the Wolverines had 20 rushing attempts for 85 yards for a 4.25 Yards-Per-Carry average that looked like what Alabama was able to produce against them. But the difference was in the passing game. McNamara and freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy combined to complete only 18 of their 36 passes for 237 yards with one touchdown and two costly interceptions from McNamara. Michigan was not able to come close to repeating what Young and the Alabama passing attack was able to accomplish four weeks before this game. Michigan offense has slowed down significantly all season if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team. And against Georgia, they were sitting on a mere three points until McCarthy engineered a late drive to put a touchdown on the board. Now Georgia gets their opportunity to avenge their loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Did Alabama’s uniquely powerful passing attack expose a weakness in the Bulldogs that only they can exploit? Or did Kirby Smart and his coaching staff use that game to plug up the potential holes that existed in what has been an otherwise historically dominant defense?We will find out on January 10th — but I have some strong feelings on the subject. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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Betting the Bowls is About Motivation! (Easier Said than Done)

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

A common refrain from bettors during the college football bowl season is that success is “all about determining which team is more motivated.” Sure, with teams exceeding expectations or missing expectations and then coaching changes and player opt-outs, finding winners is as easy as identifying the team that has been motivated to practice and prepare for the game and then playing harder when the game starts. Easy! The problem with this approach is that determining what players and teams are more motivated than another team is easier said than done. In fact, it is quite difficult to assess motivation. Are you watching both teams in practice? Are you inside the dorm rooms logging in the number of hours the players are studying tape in their free time? Are you inside the mind of the players to assess how hard they plan on playing? Motivation is always important. Handicapping relative distinctions in motivation is commonplace. Yet teams with nothing at stake often shock teams who are motivated to win a game to clinch a playoff or achieve a milestone. It happens all the time. With motivation comes expectations, and with expectations comes pressure. Some teams do not perform well under pressure. Making the handicapping motivation game even more difficult is that the bettor has to filter their determination in relation to a point spread. What ifs the oddsmakers have already accurately accounted for the motivation distinction between the two teams? If so, then the bettor banking on motivation is venturing into a bad risk. Texas Tech was supposed to be not motivated to play in the Liberty Bowl on Tuesday. The administration fired head coach Matt Wells last month. New head coach Joey McGuire had yet to take over the program coming over from Baylor. The Red Raiders were on a two-game losing streak playing for an interim head coach in Sonny Cumbie who accepted the job to become the head coach at Louisiana Tech. It could have been easy for the coaching staff and the players to go through the motions facing an SEC team in Mississippi State. Bulldogs head coach was probably working overtime to prepare for the game, as well, since he once coached at Texas Tech for years before he was dismissed for alleged mistreatment of a player who later went to court. Yet, even with all that backstory, Texas Tech upset Mississippi State, 34-7, as a double-digit underdog. The problem with handicapping based on motivation is that pure guesswork. A bettor would be just as successful flipping a coin than guess what is the mind of the coaches and players. Here are some familiar examples of a bettor guessing at motivation but it can be refuted with a basic counter-hypothesis.Motivation: "Team X is playing in the near campus which will basically turn into their home stadium. Team X is ecstatic to be back in a bowl game and their fans will show out in massive numbers, providing a major jolt of intensity, and probably the biggest fan advantage of any bowl game this year."Counter-Motivation: "Team Y's campus is only about an hour farther away than Team X. They would love to pull the upset in Team X's home state, especially as an underdog." Motivation: "Team X is ecstatic to be in this game and I feel like Team Y are disappointed about how their season ended. Put those motivations in a blender and mix them all up and Team X wins!"Counter-Motivation: "Team Y closed out their regular season with an upset loss. Their head coach is using this game as a launching pad for next season with a quarterback competition to be played out in the game." Motivation: "Team X is ecstatic to be playing in this bowl. Team Y doesn’t care about this game at all and is dealing with a substantial number of opt outs. This would be the biggest win of Team X's head coach career and I think his team doesn’t just keep it close, I think they win this game outright. The previous game hangover is real for Team Y, take Team X to cover and win outright if you want to sprinkle some money on the money line."Counter-Motivation: "Team Y's head coach hates Team X's head coach. He will do everything possible to ensure his team does not get embarrassedopt-outs second time in a row. The opt-outs provide the opportunity for Team Y to employ the 'next-man up' mentality while giving playing time to the talented younger players."Motivational differences often become clearer with the benefit of hindsight. Given all the intangibles and circumstances involved in a postseason bowl game, banking on handicapping motivation difference in these bowl games is pure guesswork. At least when the oddsmaker guesses, they have the built-in advantage of the vig. If the bettor is guessing, they are probably losing. Good luck - TDG.

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NBA: 'Capping COVID-19

by Ben Burns

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

It's always been tricky to accurately predict NBA starting lineups. Teams are notorious for listing players as "game-time decisions."  They allow the player to participate in pregame warmups and assess how he feels. The Omicron variant has made things even more difficult. Players are shuffling in and out of the lineup more than ever before. That makes knowing who's available very important. Let's take a look at some of the teams currently dealing with "COVID-19 issues." Atlanta Hawks:With 12 players in COVID health and safety protocols, the Hawks have been especially hard hit by the virus. Not surprisingly, it's had a major impact. The Hawks enter their New Year's Eve game with an 0-3 SU/ATS record their last three games and a 1-5 SU/ATS mark their last six. They should return to health early in 2022. Once that's the case, I won't be surprised if they go on a winning streak.Toronto RaptorsPlaying with an extremely Covid-depleted lineup, the Raptors lost by 45 points on Boxing Day. Things change quickly in today's world though. Less than a week later, they've got most of their players back and find themselves favored against the the Clippers, a team dealing with its own "quarantine list." Also, prior to Christmas, the Raptors benefitted when the Warriors decided to leave all their stars at home, rather than have them cross the border. Portland Trail BlazersThe Blazers are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three games, entering Friday's game vs. the Lakers. Playing without a handful of players, out on the quarantine list, hasn't helped. Relief will come "next year." Washington WizardsIt's critical to pay attention to when key players are scheduled to return. The Wizards were off back-to-back losses while dealing with some missing stars. However, all signs indicated that Beal would return for their 12/30 game against Cleveland. He did. Suddenly, arguably, the healthier team, led by Beal's 29 points, the Wizards won by double-digits. I could go on, as almost every team is affected. The list will change though. Every day. So, you'll need to do your own research, in order to stay current.Of course, nobody wants things to be this way. However, for the time being, this is the way of the world. Just as we've needed to adapt to the world, we need to adjust our handicapping. For me, I find that I'm often making my NBA plays a little later in the day. This allows me more time to read as much as I can about who is expected to play, while also allowing more time for information to become available. Happy New Year everyone. Best of luck to us all in 2022. 

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NBA: Lucky & Unlucky

by AAA Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Not all records are how they appear. Some teams are lucky, others not so much. This is true for any sport. As we get ready to turn the calendar to 2022, let’s take a look at lucky - and unlucky - NBA teams. Lucky Washington - The Wizards are 6-0 in games decided by three points or less. Exactly half of those six wins (three) have been in overtime. So this is a team we don’t think will finish in the top six. Quite frankly, if their luck starts to go bad, the Wizards might not even make the play-in round. They have only five double digit wins. The only Eastern Conference teams with fewer double digit wins this season are Orlando and Detroit. The Wizards’ point differential is also third worst in the East, ahead of only those same two teams. So a case can be made, statistically, that the Wizards have been the third worst team in their conference thus far. They are lucky to currently be in eighth place at 18-17. Brooklyn - The Eastern Conference leaders are 4-0 in games decided by three points or less. Now, because they have a better overall record than the Wizards, the 23-9 Nets should still be in good shape. But if their luck turns, maybe they don’t finish first? The status of Kyrie Irving should play a significant role in how Brooklyn performs over the second half of the season.  LA Lakers - The Lakers have five overtime wins. To put that number in perspective, the rest of the Western Conference has just nine overtime wins. Only five teams in the West have a worse point differential than the Lakers. Against teams that are .500 or better, LA is just 4-10 straight up. The championship window appears closed. If the Lakers’ luck were to turn, then it’ll be a second straight season they find themselves in the play-in round.Unlucky  Charlotte - The Hornets are 0-4 in overtime games. No other team has more than two overtime losses. There are only two other teams in the NBA with multiple OT losses without at least one OT win. Despite the poor luck in OT, the Hornets still find themselves in reasonable position in the East, in seventh place. But this is not a team you should start blindly betting on, expecting luck to take a turn for the better. That’s because the Hornets are the worst defensive team in the league. Indiana - The Pacers are a team that could move up. They’ve been without their leading scorer (Brogden) for the last few games. But a bigger issue for them is a league-worst 1-8 record in games decided by three points or less. No other team has more than five losses by three points or less. The difference in home and road wins for the Pacers, currently eight, is the largest in the league. If they can start winning road games and improve their record in close games, then Indiana should get into the play-in round.  

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