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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/26/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 26, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. New Orleans hosts San Antonio at 5:10 PM ET as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 232.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Orlando plays at home against Sacramento at 7:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 224. Toronto is at home against Indiana at 7:40 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 227. Three NBA games tip-off at 8:10 PM ET. Cleveland plays at home against Chicago in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 219. Miami hosts Brooklyn as a 1-point favorite with a total of 226.5. Memphis is at home against Milwaukee as a 1-point favorite at BetRivers. Denver hosts Oklahoma City at 9:10 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. Houston visits Portland at 10:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. The puck drops at 12:37 PM ET. Boston is at home against the New York Islanders as a -185 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay travels to Detroit as a -270 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Vegas plays at home against Chicago on ABC as a -185 money line favorite with a total of 6. Four NHL games begin at 7:07 PM ET. Toronto visits Montreal as a -270 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Florida plays at Ottawa as a -295 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Dallas hosts Vancouver as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Washington is at home against New Jersey as a -195 money line favorite a total of 6. Two NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. Minnesota plays at home against Columbus as a -255 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Carolina travels to St. Louis as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Calgary hosts Edmonton at 10:07 PM ET as a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more games conclude the NHL at 10:37 PM ET. Los Angeles plays at home against Seattle as a -245 money line favorite with a total of 6. San Jose is at home against Anaheim as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Saturday college basketball card has two games on TBS in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. Houston plays Villanova at 6:09 PM ET at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Cougars are on a six-game winning streak after their 72-60 upset victory against Arizona as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. They improved their record to 32-5 with the win. The Wildcats have won eight in a row with their 63-55 win against Michigan as a 4.5-point favorite as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. Villanova has a 29-7 record. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 128.Duke faces Arkansas at 8:49 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco. The Blue Devils won their fifth game in their last six with a 78-73 victory against Texas Tech in a pick ‘em on Thursday. They raised their record to 31-6 with the win. The Razorbacks won their fourth game in their last five with a 74-68 upset win against Gonzaga as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. Arkansas has a 28-8 record. Duke is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5.

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2022 MLB Futures - Player Awards

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Mar 25, 2022

With baseball's Opening Day just under two weeks away it's a good time to take a look at some futures worth grabbing a piece of before the stats start counting for real in April. Here are two American League player award futures that I've personally locked in already (odds courtesy DraftKings).A.L. MVPBo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays, +2000Of course, Bichette was overshadowed by another MVP candidate on his own team last year with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. turning in a phenomenal sophomore campaign. However, Bichette's stellar season shouldn't be ignored. He came within one home run and five stolen bases of a 30-30 season. Perhaps most impressively of all, he appeared in 159 of 162 games for the Blue Jays. That's the sort of durability we're looking for in an MVP candidate. Noting that Bichette had posted .571 and .512 slugging percentages in more limited action in 2019 and 2020, respectively, I'm expecting a step forward in that department this year after he recorded a .484 SLG% last season. In general, I believe Bichette is in line to improve on his extra-base power, which would obviously go a long way toward building on the 29 home runs and 102 runs batted in he delivered in 2021. The Blue Jays as a whole figure to be improved offensively with the additions of Matt Chapman (who is in line for a bounce-back season at the dish) and Ramel Tapia (a recent trade acquisition from the Rockies) and that obviously improves Bichette's run-scoring and producing potential as well.A.L. Rookie of the YearJulio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners, +750I've been high on Rodriguez for years' now, even if he has yet to make his big league debut. It's only a matter of time before he cracks a spot on the Mariners roster - quite possibly in time for Opening Day given how he's been performing in Spring Training action. In High-A and Double-A ball last season, J-Rod hit .347 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 74 games. He also added 21 steals. He's shown remarkable improvement in his two years in the minors and all indications are that he's ready for the jump to the majors in 2022, likely sooner rather than later. There are obviously a number of budding young stars in the American League with Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals leading the list (he's the favorite to win Rookie of the Year). I'm not sure if anyone has as much potential upside as Rodriguez though. He's already 4-for-11 at the dish this Spring, with a home run, four RBI and a stolen base. That's just the tip of the iceberg and I believe we're being offered incredible value before the hype train really gets rolling in April and May. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/25/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 25, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Utah visits Charlotte as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 232.5. Detroit plays at home against Washington as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218. Atlanta is at home against Golden State as a 2-point favorite with a total of 220.5. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Miami hosts New York as a 5-point favorite. Dallas plays at Minnesota in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 228. Houston travels to Portland as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 235.5. Philadelphia is at Los Angeles against the Clippers at 10:40 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 225.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. Washington travels to Buffalo as a -215 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Pittsburgh plays in New York against the Rangers as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Winnipeg is at home against Columbus at 8:08 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games conclude the NHL card at 9:07 PM ET. Colorado hosts Philadelphia as a -425 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Calgary plays at home against Arizona as a -425 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The Friday college basketball card has four games on national television to complete the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Purdue plays Saint Peter’s on CBS at 7:09 PM ET at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The Boilermakers won their fifth game in their last six with an 81-71 victory against Texas as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. They raised their record to 29-7 with the win. The Peacocks won their ninth straight game with their 70-60 upset victory against Murray State as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Saint Peter’s has a 21-11 record. Purdue is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 135.Kansas battles Providence on TBS at 7:29 PM ET at the United Center in Chicago. The Jayhawks won their seventh straight game with their 79-72 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 30-6 record on the year. The Friars won their sixth game in their last eight with a 79-51 victory against Richmond as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. Providence improved their record to 27-5. Kansas is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5.UCLA faces North Carolina on CBS at 9:39 PM ET at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. The Bruins won their seventh game in their last nine with a 72-56 victory as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 27-7 record. The Tar Heels won their eighth game in their last nine with a 93-86 upset win against Baylor as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. North Carolina improved to 26-9. UCLA is a 2-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Miami (Florida) faces Iowa State on TBS at 9:59 PM ET at the United Center in Chicago. The Hurricanes won their fifth game in their last six with their 79-61 upset win against Auburn as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Their record has improved to 25-10. The Cyclones won their second straight game with a 54-49 upset win against Wisconsin as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. Iowa State has a 22-12 record. Miami (Florida) is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 133. 

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Are The Boston Celtics For Real?

by AAA Sports

Thursday, Mar 24, 2022

Just what in the name of Sam Adams is happening in Boston these days?Left for dead and getting booed off their home court on a semi-regular basis through the first 50 games of the season, out of nowhere the Celtics have somehow cobbled together one of the greatest turnarounds in NBA regular-season history. Boston was a .500 team last season and .500 again through 50 games this year before going on the mother of all tears – winning 21 of 24, including a 28-point beatdown of a good Jazz team on Wednesday in a game that wasn’t anywhere near as close as the final score indicated.The early part of Boston’s current streak drew little attention as NBA eyes were focused on James Harden shooting his way off another team, Ben Simmons refusing to play at all and the Lakers being either hurt or pissed at the world (sometimes both). But as the Celtics have surged past team after team in the East, the outside world is paying attention.Boston opened the year at +4000 to win it all, a number that has melted to +1000 in some books. FWIW, Stephen A. Smith is starting to blow Boston’s horn as the team to beat, and the number-crunching basketball folks at 538.com have been saying for nearly a month that the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be heading to Beantown come June.So what gives?Offensively the Celtics have ridden the coattails of forwards Jayson Tatum (who has been a 30-ppg machine of late) and Jaylen Brown. But the real work is done on the defensive end. Boston has the NBA’s best defense, and the gap between the Celtics and No. 2 is gaping. Marcus Smart is a dog on the perimeter, and finally-healthy big Robert Williams is fast enough to guard the 3-point line and recover to defend the rim when Boston is caught in transition. The Celtics haven’t had a shot-blocker like Williams since Bill Russell.[It’s interesting to note here that the best defensive players on the best defensive team aren’t getting much love from oddsmakers in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion. Robert Wiliams (+1100) is fourth, behind heavy favorite Bam Adebayo (+115), Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Smart (+4000) is a distant eighth.]The rest of the rotation, which was tightened after mid-season trades sent rotation players Dennis Schroder and Josh Richardson out of town, includes rejuvenated veteran big Al Horford, emerging 3-point shooters Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard; and glue guard Derrick White, who came over from San Antonio at the trade deadline.For the first few months of the season rookie coach Ime Udoka (a Gregg Popovich disciple) must have wondered why he took he took the job. Tatum and Brown had continued the My Turn / Your Turn ISO play that Celtics fans had witnessed nightly since the Celtics lost to the Heat in the bubble in the Eastern Conference finals. That style of play led to a 61-61 record over the next year-plus – until everything came together in late January.Ripping through the soft underbelly of the schedule and playing against weak teams and teams dealing with Covid player absences, Boston ran off nine straight wins and then continued white hot post-All-Star break. The dismantling of the Jazz was Boston’s fifth straight, and came on the heels of a 4-0 road trip that included wins over Golden State (yes, the one in which Steph Curry got hurt) and Denver. The Celtics won those four games by an average of nearly 20 ppg.Boston’s surge, combined with periodic inconsistent play by Miami, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Chicago and Cleveland, moved the Celtics to within shouting distance (1.5 games) of first place in the East – a stunning 180 for a fan base which only a few months before had been talking about trading one, or both, of the J’s and embarking on a complete rebuild.Can Boston continue its Sherman-like march to the sea, get out of the East and possibly get that elusive championship banner No. 18, its first since the Garnett-Pierce-Allen title team of 2008? Oddsmakers still like Brooklyn to at least get to the Finals, and the Bucks, 76ers and Heat are all listed higher than the Celtics (+550) in the conference.At a minimum, though, Boston has shot its way into the conversation. And as any talking head this side of Charles Barkley will tell you, offense can come and go but defense and effort are more permanent and can take you far. Last year the Celtics were doused in five by the Nets in the first round after winning the 7-8 Play-In Game. But that was long ago, and in a galaxy far away.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/24/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 24, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. Toronto hosts Cleveland at 7:40 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 214.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Three games tip-off at 8:10 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at home against Washington as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 233. Chicago travels to New Orleans as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. Memphis is at home against Indiana as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. Denver hosts Phoenix at 9:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 231. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. The puck drops for three games at 7:07 PM ET. Boston plays at home against Tampa Bay in a game where both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Florida visits Montreal as a -260 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Carolina is at home against Dallas on ESPN as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against Detroit at 7:37 PM ET as a -215 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Three NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET. Winnipeg hosts Ottawa as a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. St. Louis plays at home against Philadelphia as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 6. Minnesota is at home against Vancouver as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Edmonton hosts San Jose at 9:07 PM ET as a -255 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. Vegas plays at home against Nashville as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Los Angeles Lakers are a -190 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Thursday college basketball card has four games on national television for the sweet 16 in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga plays Arkansas on CBS at 7:09 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco. The Bulldogs won their fourth straight game with their 82-78 victory against Memphis as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. They raised their record to 28-3 with the win. The Razorbacks won their third game in their last four with their 53-48 win against New Mexico State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas has a 27-8 record. Gonzaga is a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Villanova faces Michigan on TBS at 7:29 PM ET at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Wildcats are on a seven-game winning streak with their 71-61 victory against Ohio State as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. They improved to 28-7 with the win. The Wolverines won their third game in their last four with a 76-68 upset victory against Tennessee as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Michigan now has a 19-14 record. Villanova is a 5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Texas Tech battles Duke on CBS at 9:39 PM ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco. The Red Raiders won their fourth game in their last five with their 59-53 victory against Notre Dame as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. They have a 27-9 record. The Blue Devils won their fourth game in their last five with an 85-76 win against Michigan State as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. Duke improved to 30-6 with the win. Texas Tech is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 137.Arizona goes up against Houston on TBS at 9:59 PM ET at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The Wildcats are on an eight-game winning streak after their 85-80 win in overtime against TCU on Sunday. They improved to 33-3 with the win. The Cougars are on a five-game winning streak after their 68-53 victory against Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston has a 31-5 record. Arizona is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145.5.

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Only the 'Sweetest' Teams Allowed

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022

The 2022 NCAA Tournament Field (68 teams) was announced on Sunday March 13, with First Four games on Tuesday (Mar 14) and Wednesday (Mar 15). The 64-team field was set by Thursday and four days later, only the 'sweetest' 16 teams remained. I won't "bury the lead." Favorites went 3-1 SU & ATS in First Four games and then 12-4 SU & 9-7 ATS on Thursday. The Loyola-Ohio St game closed at pick'em, as favorites went 10-5 SU but just 6-9 ATS on Friday. It was on to the Round of 32 on Saturday and Sunday, Favorites were 5-3 SU on Saturday but had a bad day at 'the betting window,' going 2-6 ATS. Favorites improved to 6-2 SU on Sunday but were a modest 4-4 ATS. Doing the math, here's how "the numbers" stand, as the Sweet 16 games get set to tip off on Thursday night. Favorites are 36-15 SU (.706) but 24-27 ATS (37.1%), or -5.7 net games.The four No. 1 seeds were Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor. Heading into this year's Big Dance, No. 1 seeds were 143-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds. The No.1 seeds all advanced this week as well, upping the all-time record to 147-1. I'm sure ALL will remember that one loss that came in the 2018 tourney. The 16th-seeded UMBC Retrievers not only beat the overall No. 1 seed (UVa) but did so in dominant fashion by a score of 74-54! According to NCAA.com, there had only been 15 games between No. 1 and No.16 seeds decided by 10 points or less entering the 2022 tourney. This year followed the same pattern, as the No. 1 seeds won by an average of 24.8 PPG. Ironically, the No. 1 seed with the largest margin of victory was Baylor (Bears won by 36 points), but it is also the lone No. 1 seed to NOT advance to the Sweet 16. The defending champs lost 93-86 in OT to No. 8 North Carolina. How 'bout 'dem Tar Heels? UNC's victory over Baylor was the Tar Heels' NINTH win against a No. 1 since seeding began in 1979, tying Duke for the most ever.The 'Cinderella' team of the 2022 tourney is St Peter's, which beat No. 2 seed Kentucky 85-79 in OT on Thursday and then beat Murray St 70-60 on Saturday, ending the Racers' 21-game winning streak (longest in the nation). For the third time ever, a No. 15 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16. However, it happened just last year as well (Oral Roberts) and back in 2013 with Florida Gulf Coast's "Dunk City' squad. While it's not possible to top St Peter's run to the Sweet 16, it's only fair to give Iowa State and its head coach a shout out. T.J. Otzelberger came from UNLV to take over an Iowa St team that went 2-22 last season, including 0-18 in the Big 12. The Cyclones opened the season 12-0 and entered the tournament as an 11-seed  (20-12). Iowa St beat LSU (6-seed) 85-79 on Thursday and then beat Wisconsin (3-seed) 54-49 on Sunday. St Peter's and Iowa St are joined by two other double digit seeds in this year's Sweet 16, No. 11 Michigan and No. 10 Miami. All four teams are now just ONE win away from advancing to the Elite  Eight. Since No. 10 Miami and No. 11 Iowa St play each other on Friday, at least one double digit will have reached the Elite 8. By the way, No. 12 Oregon State and No. 11 UCLA each made Elite 8 appearances last season (UCLA made the Final Four).  Only ONE of the four regions features the top four seeds and that's the West (played in San Francisco). It's No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 4 Arkansas and  No. 2 Duke vs No. 3 Texas Tech. Gonzaga has now reached its SEVENTH straight Sweet 16 (third-longest streak ever). Will it finally be the 'Zags year? History is NOT on Gonzaga's side. The Bulldogs finished as the No. 1 team from the final AP and the AP's final No. 1 team has gone on to win the title only FOUR times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. It's happened just ONCE since 2001 and that was Kentucky in 2012, led by Anthony Davis.In closing, here's a list NO Power-5 school wants to be on. There were 10 Power-5 schools that were neither bowl eligible nor made the 2020 NCAA tournament. In alphabetical order they are; Cal, Colorado, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Northwestern, Stanford, Syracuse, Washington, Vanderbilt.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/23/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket. Three games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts New York as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 226 (all odds from DraftKings). Atlanta visits Detroit as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. Indiana plays at home against Sacramento as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 236.5. Three more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Boston is at home against Utah as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Miami plays at home against Golden State as a 7-point favorite with a total of 214.5.Brooklyn travels to Memphis in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Nets won their sixth game in their last seven with a 114-106 upset win against Utah as a 2-point underdog on Monday. They raised their record to 38-34 with the win. The Grizzlies won their fifth game in their last six with a 122-108 victory at Houston as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. They improved their record to 49-23 with the victory. Brooklyn is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 235. Two NBA games begin at 8:40 PM ET. Phoenix plays at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 235. Orlando is at Oklahoma City as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 218. Dallas hosts Houston at 8:40 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. San Antonio plays at Portland as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 233.5. Philadelphia travels to Los Angeles to play the Lakers in the nightcap on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET. The 76ers won their third game in their last four with their 113-106 upset win against Miami as an 8-point underdog on Monday. They have a 44-27 record. The Lakers won their second game in their last three with a 131-130 upset win at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles has a 31-41 record. Philadelphia is a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 230. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Toronto hosts New Jersey in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Maple Leafs had their two-game winning streak end in a 6-3 loss at Nashville on Saturday. The Devils ended their three-game losing streak with a 7-4 victory against the New York Rangers on Tuesday. Toronto is a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Pittsburgh visits Buffalo at 7:37 PM ET as a -220 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Colorado is at home against Vancouver at 9:37 PM ET as a -255 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Anaheim hosts Chicago in the second game on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Ducks are on a seven-game losing streak with a 6-3 win against Nashville on Monday. The Blackhawks have lost three in a row after their 6-4 win against Winnipeg on Sunday. Anaheim is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Wednesday college basketball card has three games on national television. Middle Tennessee plays UNC-Wilmington on ESPN2 at 5 PM ET in the finals of the College Basketball Invitational at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach, Florida. The Blue Raiders reached the finals with their 85-69 win against Abilene Christian as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Seahawks beat Northern Colorado, 80-64, as a 2-point favorite to advance to the championship game of this tournament. Texas A&M plays at home against Wake Forest on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. The Aggies won their ninth game in their last ten games with a 75-60 victory against Oregon as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Demon Deacons won their fourth game in their last five games with an 80-74 victory against VCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. BYU hosts Washington State on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET in the final quarterfinals contest in the NIT. The Cougars won their fifth game in their last six with a 90-71 win against Northern Iowa as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cougars won their sixth game in their last seven with a 75-63 upset victory at SMU as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. BYU is a 3-point favorite with a total of 142.5.

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Sweet 16 Value Plays to Win It All

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022

Odds all as of March 22 from PointsBetWEST – Texas Tech +1200 The Red Raiders face off in the Sweet 16 vs Duke and a win there would set them up to meet either Gonzaga or Arkansas to go to the Final 4.  The Red Raiders are favored vs Duke and they are the type of team that will give the Blue Devils problems.  Tech is a veteran team with only upperclassmen receiving key minutes facing a very young Blue Devil team.  The Red Raiders are the #1 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country which will give Duke problems.  Duke scores 54% of their points inside the arc which is 79th most nationally but Tech is fantastic defensively from 2 point range.  They allow just 42% of points against them to come from inside the arc with is the 3rd lowest percentage nationally.  If they get by Duke the Zags will be a tough draw as they would be for anyone.  However, with the physicality and defensive toughness the Red Raiders play with, they can give Gonzaga problems as well.  They’ll try and slow that game down which is not how Gonzaga likes to play.  We feel there is some value at 12/1 on Texas Tech to win it all. EAST – UCLA +1600 We had the Bruins as a long shot opportunity back in mid February and we’re surprised they are still 16/1 at this point.  They rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom.  They are one of only three teams that fall into that category with the others being Houston & Gonzaga.  Starting forward Jamie Jaquez tweaked his ankle so something to watch for UCLA.  If he’s OK, the Bruins are fully healthy with PG Campbell and F Juzang back at 100% after they were banged up down the stretch of the regular season.  We love the experience with everyone back from last year’s Final 4 team and the fact this team does not turn the ball over with very solid guard play.  UCLA is favored over UNC and if they get by that they will most likely play a Purdue team that isn’t very good defensively and will struggle vs a UCLA offense that features 4 players who average between 11 PPG and 18 PPG.  On the other end of the court, UCLA’s defense is definitely good enough to frustrate the Boilers who have had a fairly easy draw thus far facing 2 ranked outside the top 100 per Ken Pom in their first 3 tourney games.  This UCLA team has a great shot at another Final 4.   SOUTH – Houston +1000 We also had the Cougars pegged as a value play to win it all back in mid February and feel that at 10/1 they are still worth a shot if you didn’t follow our lead a month ago when we suggested them at 35/1.  One of only two teams remaining that rank in the top 10 efficiency wise at Ken Pom both offensively and defensively.  The other is Gonzaga.  The Cougars are playing great basketball right now winning 11 of last 12 with 10 of those wins coming by double digits.  Their only loss during that stretch was vs a very good, athletic Memphis team and Houston got their revenge in the AAC tourney trouncing the Tigers.  They just handled Big 10 champ Illinois with ease completely suffocating the Illini offense to just 0.85 PPP and only 24% from 3 point land.  The Cougs face an Arizona team that wants to run up and down the court all day long but Houston will take them out of their comfort zone and make this a half court game.  Houston is also a great offensive rebounding team, 3rd in the nation, and Zona showed a weakness on the defensive glass over the weekend with TCU gathering 20 offensive boards on Sunday.  If Houston can upset Arizona as a 2.5-point dog,  we’d anticipated them being favored to win over Villanova or Michigan in the Elite 8.   MIDWEST – Providence +5000 The odds on the Friars provide some great value in our opinion.  50/1?  That seems out of line.  They are 7.5 point dogs vs Kansas this week and we wouldn’t be completely surprised if they pulled the upset.  The Jayhawks are a flawed #1 seed who just struggled to get by Creighton despite the Jayhawks missing 2 of their top 3 players.  Providence and Creighton split their 2 games this year and that was when the Jays had center Kalkbrenner in the line up.  The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games.  Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis.  They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova.  The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation.  The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season.  Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA.  Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points.  Should the Friars upset the Jayhawks, they’re Final 4 aspirations look very good with Miami or Iowa State next in line.  50/1 is definitely worth a shot here.     

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/22/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. Golden State plays at Orlando at 7:10 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 215.5. Atlanta visits New York in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Hawks lost their second game in their last three in a 117-112 loss to New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Their record has dropped to 35-36 with the loss. The Knicks had their two-game winning streak end in a 108-93 loss to Utah as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. New York has a 30-41 record. Atlanta is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.Milwaukee hosts Chicago at 8:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 233.5Denver plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Nuggets lost their second straight game in a 124-104 loss to Boston as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Their record fell to 42-30 with the loss. The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak in a 121-92 loss at Utah on Friday. Los Angeles has a 36-37 record. Denver is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for four games. The New York Rangers play at New Jersey as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh is at home against Columbus as a -360 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Washington hosts St. Louis as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Two NHL games start at 7:37 PM ET. Detroit is at home against Pittsburgh as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against Ottawa as a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg plays at home against Vegas as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 6. Dallas is at home against Edmonton at 8:37 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Calgary hosts San Jose at 9:07 PM ET as a -310 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Arizona plays at home against Seattle at 10:07 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. Los Angeles is at home against Nashville as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday college basketball card has five games. Virginia plays at home against St. Bonaventure on ESPN at 7 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. The Cavaliers are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 123.5. UNC-Wilmington plays Northern Colorado on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach in the semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. The Seahawks are a 2-point favorite with a total of 157.Xavier is at home against Vanderbilt on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the NIT. The Musketeers are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. UTEP plays at home against Southern Utah at 9 PM ET in the second round of the Basketball Classic as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Middle Tennessee plays Abilene Christian on ESPN2 at 9:30 PM ET in the College Basketball Invitational Semifinals at Daytona Beach. The Blue Raiders are a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139.

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La Liga and Serie A: Latest Look!

by Power Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

La LigaWell, Barcelona certainly made quite the statement on Saturday, didn’t they?Barca’s 4-0 thrashing of first place Real Madrid in “El Clasico” closed the gap to 12 points. It’s probably still too large to overcome, but Barca is probably finishing in second this season, given Sevilla’s recent form. The gap between second and third is currently just three points. To me, Sevilla isn’t even a top four side in La Liga, but their fast start to the campaign probably guarantees they’ll be headed back to the Champions League next season. The lead over fifth place Real Betis is just seven points, but Betis is a side I see moving down the table, not up. It’s Villarreal that probably finishes “odd team out” as they only have 45 points, nine back of the top four and the Yellow Submarine also has Bayern Munich to worry about in the Champions League quarter finals.So, expect the top four to be Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, probably in that order. Villarreal will probably finish fifth ahead of Betis and Real Sociedad, leaving the latter two sides to battle for Europa League Conference qualifying. Note that the two Madrid sides and Villarreal are all in the UCL quarter finals. Barcelona is in the Europa League quarter finals. Sevilla is the lone side without any current European commitments as they were just eliminated from the Europa League.The middle of the La Liga table remains a bit of a jumbled mess. I think Celta Vigo finishes in the top ten. Valencia is facing Betis next month in the Finals of the Copa del Rey, which is another automatic entry in next season’s Europa League. That one will be far more important to Valencia, who is highly unlikely to finish top five in the La Liga table. The race to avoid relegation has gotten quite tight. Amazingly, for the second straight season, Cadiz, Elche and Granada are the bottom three on xPts (expected points) and again all may avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. Right now, Elche is in the best position, six points clear of the drop zone. But Granada and Cadiz are just two and one point clear, respectively. The current bottom three are: Mallorca, Alaves and Levante, who have the worst three goal differentials. Levante, like last year’s bottom finisher Eibar, deserves to stay but it may be “too little, too late.” They have the fewest number of wins in the league (3). Mallorca, a newly promoted side for this season, has been in awful form of late with six straight losses and they haven’t scored a single goal in four of the last five.  Serie AThis is the league with the biggest gap between the top four and everyone else. It’s AC Milan, Napol, Inter and Juventus (some familiar names) occupying the Champions League places with Atalanta and Roma (tied for fifth) currently looking at an eight-point gap.Both Napoli and Inter have better goal differentials than AC Milan and so there could be a change at the top. AC Milan is only fourth in xPts, also behind Roma. I think Napoli is primed to earn the Scudetto. No Italian side is currently left in the Champions League as both Inter and Juventus were bounced in the Round of 16. So there’s lots of pressure on everybody right now.Atalanta’s best path of claiming a spot in next season’s UCL might be winning the Europa League, which they are still involved in, but it’s a tough quarterfinal matchup vs. RB Leipzig out of the Bundesliga. Roma and Atalanta are likely to finish in the top six, which would leave sides such as Lazio and Fiorentina on the outside looking in when it comes to European football next season. Although Fiorentina is still in the Coppa Italia, which is down to the semis, and the winner of that gains entry to the Europa League. The other three remaining sides in that competition are Milan, Inter and Juventus. I think there is a massive gap, reflected in goal differential, between 11th and 12th place in this league.The relegation battle should come down to these five sides: Salernitana (a lock), Genoa, Venezia, Cagliari and Spezia. I think Venezia, who like Salernitana was just promoted for this season, is likely to be headed right back to Serie B. Most of the way, I thought Genoa was also bound for relegation. But they’ve somehow picked up points in eight straight matches, despite scoring only three goals! (Five 0-0 draws). They are still tied (with Venezia) for 18th at 22 points. Their league-leading 16 draws will either be their savior or doom. Still only with a league-low two wins, Genoa is still projected for relegation by my numbers 

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EPL and Bundesliga: Latest Look!

by Power Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

With the “Big 4” European leagues off this week, it’s time for my monthly look at what is going on in soccer. This one is going to be a bit more detailed, so I’ll be breaking it up into two separate articles. Up first: the English Premier League and German BundesligaPremier LeagueAgain, there’s no drama as to who will finish in the top three spots: Manchester City (70 points), Liverpool (69) and Chelsea (59) will all be returning next season to the Champions League, where all three are currently still playing in this year’s quarterfinals.There is a bit of drama for the top spot as I give Liverpool an excellent shot at unseating Man City and winning the league. This is something that few thought possible, even as recently as last month. Liverpool has the better goal differential (+55 vs. +50) and has won nine straight EPL matches while keeping seven clean sheets. They’ve outscored the competition 23-2 during the unbeaten run! Interestingly enough, Man City and Liverpool will square off in next month’s FA Cup semi finals. That means the two sides will be doing battle on consecutive weekends as they also meet in league play on April 10th. The fourth spot in the EPL remains wide open with Tottenham becoming a full-fledged player due to four wins in their last five fixtures. Arsenal remains fourth, however, two points ahead of the Spurs with one match in hand. Arsenal has two matches in hand compared to Manchester United (6th place)  and West Ham (7th). Man U, fresh off being eliminated from the Champions League (by Atletico Madrid) is now even more desperate for the fourth place finish. Of the four “legit” contenders for the fourth spot, West Ham is the only one still playing European football (Europa League), which may have them at a disadvantage, although winning the Europa League would obviously be a “panacea.” Sorry Wolves’ fans, but I happen to think your team is a pretender. There are 12 sides that sit higher on xPts (expected points) in the table. If there’s a Premier League side to keep an eye on in the middle of the table, it’s Crystal Palace, who is in 12th place but 9th on xPts. The Eagles are also in the FA Cup semis (with Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) and could be the most motivated side in that particular competition as the winner gains automatic entry into next year’s Europa League. None of the other three care much about that. Now to the bottom and the race to avoid relegation. This has gotten interesting. For quite some time now, last place Norwich City has been earmarked for a return to the second tier of English football (aka The Championship). The Canaries are last the Premier League by almost every metric. The next two worst goal differentials belong to Watford (-26) and Leeds United (-33), but the latter just picked up a huge win over the Wolves (thanks to a red card) and are now seven points clear of the drop zone. I think the key factor in this race is that both Everton (25 points) and Burnley (21) have three matches in hand compared to Leeds and two over Watford, the sides they are competing against to avoid relegation. As of now, I think it ends up as Watford and Burnley that join Norwich in The Championship next season.BundesligaAs I wrote last month, I am extremely confident that Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will finish as the top four. Bayern should be running away with a 10th straight Bundesliga title, but has instead kept things interesting with two recent draws. But they will finish first (GD gap between them and Dortmund is massive, +53 and +29), although Bayern does have the Champions League to still worry about. Leipzig is still alive in the Europa League as well. Winning that competition would mean they do not have to be concerned about finishing top four here in the Bundesliga, as they’d gain automatic entry into next year’s UCL. The race for other European spots (go to the fifth and sixth place finishers) is very interesting. Currently, those spots are occupied by Freiburg and Hoffenheim, who are tied with and just one point off Leipzig for fourth. But both chasing sides suffered bad results this past weekend. Eintracht Frankfurt, a top five finisher last season here in Germany, is also still alive in the Europa League and may view that as their path to glory. Either Union Berlin or Mainz could move up into the top six. Note that Leipzig, Freiburg and Union Berlin are also all still alive in the DFB-Pokal (semis next month). Facing a second tier side in the semis, Freiburg looks to have a clear path to the Finals. The winner of the DFB-Pokal is automatically in next season's Europa League and that could have an effect on motivation the final month of the Bundesliga season. The relegation battle here is a little different because it’s only the bottom two that get automatically sent down to the 2. We’ve known for a while that Greuther Furth is going to be one and done in the top flight. I still believe that Hertha Berlin will join them, even though they just won last weekend to move out of the bottom two. I now think the team most likely to finish in the relegation playoff spot is Arminia Bielefeld, who is still lowest on xPts in the entire league. To clarify, finishing third from the bottom means you take on the third place finisher from the Bundesliga 2 in a one-match scenario to remain in the top flight.

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Early Look at the Final Eight Teams in the Sweet 16

by Nelly's Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

Early Look at the Final eight teams in the Sweet 16  Eight teams moved on Sunday to complete the Sweet 16 field in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Here is an early look at those eight teams heading on to new venues for the next contests Thursday and Friday.  South #5 Houston – defeated UAB (-9) 82-68, defeated Illinois (-3.5) 68-53 After making the Final Four last season Houston in back in the Sweet 16, pulling away from Illinois in the early game on Sunday. After early season non-conference wins over Virginia, Oregon, and Oklahoma State wound up carrying little weight, Houston has picked up two of its best wins in postseason action beating Memphis in its third try in the AAC Championship and beating Illinois.  Only Fabian White was a significant contributor on last season’s Final Four team as it is completely different starting five for Kelvin Sampson due to two key injuries early in the season (Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark). Houston also had one of the weakest paths to the Final Four last season beating a #11 seed and a #12 seed in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, after an incredible comeback escape against Rutgers in the Round of 32.  Houston’s efficiency numbers are incredible if you respect the schedule the Cougars have faced, now climbing into the national top 10 on offense and defense. Forcing 17 turnovers against a veteran Illinois team was a stunning result and the free throw woes that have hurt Houston this season have not come into play so far in the tournament. This is not a great 3-point shooting team, but the addition of Josh Carlton gives the Cougars the size they lacked last season and this team should be considered a serious Final Four threat.  South #2 Villanova – defeated Delaware (-14.5) 80-60, defeated Ohio State (-5) 81-71 Villanova lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16 last season, competing better with the eventual champion Bears than any other team on the six-game title run for the Bears. Four of five starters are back from that team this season as the Wildcats finished second in the Big East regular season (playing three more games than Providence) while winning the Big East tournament to land a #2 seed. Villanova plays at a very deliberate pace and is the best free throw shooting team in the nation. The Wildcats also played a formidable non-conference schedule despite losing three of four big games, losing close games with UCLA and Purdue, and losing badly in a rematch with Baylor in Waco. The Wildcats did beat Tennessee in November by 18 for a strong result.  Villanova is not an elite shooting team with average scoring numbers from 2-point range on both sides of the ball and slightly above average numbers from 3-point range on both sides of the ball. Turnovers are rare on offense, but the Wildcats don’t have elite height in the paint for the some potential problematic pairings moving forward in the bracket.  Next Up is #11 seed Michigan in San Antonio on Thursday.  West #2 Duke – defeated Cal-State Fullerton (-18.5) 78-61, defeated Michigan State (-6.5) 85-76 Some questioned Duke’s seeding on the 2-line in Coach K’s final run but the Blue Devils have avoided an early upset to reach the Sweet 16, after escaping a very tough game with Michigan State. Early season wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga are on the resume for Duke and so far the ACC has surpassed its regular season ratings with three Sweet 16 teams. Duke has elite talent with four potential 1st round NBA draft picks, but the defense has not been at a championship level. Duke rarely forces turnover including getting only seven against Michigan State while five of Duke’s last six opponents have scored at least 76 points Duke has excellent shooting numbers all over the floor but the ACC schedule did not feature a single top 40 defensive efficiency team and Duke’s path to the final four includes three top 15 defenses still remaining in the region. Duke scored at a 63% clip on 2-point shots in the Round of 32 and that will be tough to match in any upcoming game.  Next Up is #3 seed Texas Tech Thursday in San Francisco.  West #3 Texas Tech – defeated Montana State (-15) 97-62, defeated Notre Dame (-8) 59-53 Mark Adams has done a terrific job in taking over for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and the Red Raiders survived a tight Sunday contest with Notre Dame to reach the Sweet 16 after also delivering a blowout win in the Round of 64. Only one of five starters for the Red Raiders was with the team last and this group went 3-1 vs. Kansas and Baylor in the regular season.  This is the best defense in the nation in many measures and so far the Red Raiders have kept their turnover counts in check after having issues with turnovers in the season numbers. The offense is a below average 3-point shooting team but has tremendous size and scores inside at a very successful rate.  The non-conference schedule was one of the weakest paths in the nation however as the case that the defensive numbers could be overstated is valid for this team. Texas Tech was still the top defense in the top-rated conference this season however.  Next Up is #2 seed Duke Thursday in San Francisco. Midwest #11 Iowa State – defeated LSU (+3.5) 59-54, defeated Wisconsin (+4) 54-49 Iowa State is one of two #11 seeds to make the Sweet 16, relying on it defense to defeat LSU and Wisconsin in tight low-scoring games. The Cyclones are an amazing story as this was a 2-win team last season before T.J. Otzelberger transformed the roster, riding a 12-0 start as one of the great early season surprises.  In Big XII play the Cyclones were less successful and the offensive numbers were among the worst in the conference in many areas. Iowa State scored 59 and 54 points in its wins with marginal shooting rates. With a trapping defense Iowa State is a difficult team to prepare for, particularly on a short turnaround and the Cyclones caught a huge break in the Round of 32 as Wisconsin lost its point guard to injury early in the game.  Iowa State’s edge on defense may be less pronounced moving forward against a Miami squad with good quickness and elusive ball handlers, featuring on the lowest turnover rates in the nation. Kansas would be a potential draw in the Elite 8 and Iowa State lost both games in the regular season to the Jayhawks even with key players absent for Kansas.  Next Up is #10 seed Miami, FL Friday in Chicago.   Midwest #10 Miami, FL – defeated USC (+2) 68-66, defeated Auburn (+6.5) 79-61 Miami is a surprise third team in the Sweet 16 for the ACC after blasting #2 seed Auburn on Sunday following a Round of 64 escape against USC. The Hurricanes started 5-0 and wound up 14-6 in the ACC with a win at Duke likely critical in staying on the right side of the bubble.  Miami has a top 20 offensive efficiency rate with one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation and this was the second-best team in the ACC in 2-point success rate at over 55 percent. Miami only had three wins vs. tournament teams this season and went 0-4 vs. Virginia and Florida State, two of the better defensive teams in the ACC as this group can have off games, including suffering five home losses.  Miami’s defense was near the bottom in the ACC in effective field goal rate allowed and the Hurricanes faced a rather light ACC path this season. Jim Larranaga’s teams have not gone past the sweet 16 since he took over the program in 2011-12.  Next Up is #11 seed Iowa State Friday in Chicago.  East #4 Purdue – defeated Yale (-16.5) 78-56, defeated Texas (-3.5) 81-71 The Boilermakers were able to hold off Texas in a game with big swings Sunday to reach the Sweet 16, avoiding what could have been an 0-5 Sunday for the Big Ten. This is the sixth Sweet 16 appearance for Matt Painter, only advancing to the Elite 8 once in 2019.  Purdue as some of the top-rated offensive numbers in the nation led by future NBA draft pick Jaden Ivey while also possessing rare size with 7’4” Zach Edey. The Boilermakers have avenged a round of 64 loss last season with this run, though in the Round of 32 a lot went right for Purdue, handed a 46-12 edge in free throw attempts. Purdue did dominate the defensive glass in that game and will draw what would conventionally be considered the most favorable matchup in the Sweet 16.  Purdue’s defense is vulnerable, ranking ninth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency while turnovers are a weak spot for the Boilermakers on both sides of the ball. Purdue was the worst free throw shooting team in the Big Ten at just 68 percent but delivered a slightly better success rate Sunday in the huge volume of opportunities.  Next Up is #15 seed Saint Peter’s Friday in Philadelphia.  South #1 Arizona – defeated Wright State (-22) 87-70, defeated TCU (-9.5) 85-80 Arizona is one of the Championship favorites after a brilliant first season under Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats have been tested so far including needing an overtime escape Sunday night against TCU, surviving despite shooting below 20 percent on 3-point shots. Arizona’s talent is immense with size and length few teams can compete with. Benedict Mathurin is a star and a strong shooter all over the floor and this team is now 33-3, dominating a Pac-12 conference that made a lot of noise in last season’s tournament.  Arizona is one of the least experienced teams in the nation however with a first-year coach and no NCAA Tournament experience for the starting five with only a few reserves having token postseason minutes at other schools. The 3-point shooting and turnover numbers are not at an elite level for Arizona and the strength of the Pac-12 can be questioned with several teams declining from last season. Arizona will face a shorter turnaround than most this week going from the last game Sunday to playing Thursday with the move from San Diego to San Antonio, playing in the home state of its Sweet 16 opponent. This is a team with all the pieces to continue winning in March, but the group is a bit less proven than some of the other remaining contenders.  Next Up is #5 seed in Houston in San Antonio Thursday. 

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