Early Look at Big Ten Basketball

A taste of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the Big Ten with most teams playing two early season non-conference games before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a look at how a five of the Big Ten teams have performed and what to expect in the first Big Ten conference action of the season.

 

The Favorite – Purdue: The Boilermakers are on a season of redemption after last season’s early NCAA tournament exit and the start could not be more impressive, sweeping three high-profile games in Hawaii against Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette over Thanksgiving week. Purdue is +150 to win the Big Ten as a clear favorite in the conference after winning the league by three games last season going 15-5. One of those losses was at Northwestern, where the Boilermakers head on December 1 for their Big Ten opener. Purdue will also host Iowa December 4 looking to start the conference season 2-0 before heavyweight non-conference games vs. Alabama and Arizona in mid-December. 

 

Prove It Game – Wisconsin at Michigan State: After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, Wisconsin and head coach Greg Gard are in line for an important season. The Badgers have had mixed results in the non-conference season, losing to Tennessee and Providence but defeating Virginia and SMU. A big home test is this weekend hosting Marquette before the Big Ten opener in East Lansing. Wisconsin plays only one December Big Ten game and will play at Arizona the following weekend for a grueling run on the schedule. The Badgers have good returning experience while St. John’s transfer AJ Storr and freshman John Blackwell have been impressive additions as Wisconsin looks capable of climbing back to the top tier of the conference, but they need to prove it with at least one big win in December.  

Breakthrough Team - Nebraska: Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since going 19-17 under Tim Miles in 2018-19 and last made the NCAA Tournament in 2014. It has been a slow climb, but Fred Hoiberg’s team has improved in record every season since he took over, going 2-18 in Big Ten play in his first season in Lincoln through turning in a competitive 9-11 conference run last season. This year’s team is already 7-0 in non-conference play and grades as a top 50 caliber team by many measures for the first time in many years. The schedule so far has been very light however as the best win came narrowly at home over Duquesne while Nebraska has only one win away form home. In the first two weeks of December Nebraska has a non-conference test vs. Creighton before a winnable Big Ten opener at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers then host Michigan State before another tough non-conference game at Kansas State as this will be a big two-week stretch for the program to deliver a few wins to help deliver a breakthrough season. 

Transition Team – Penn State: Stepping into a tough situation, Micah Shrewsberry did a great job at Penn State for two seasons and the Nittany Lions made a nice run last March, making the Big Ten tournament final and then winning a NCAA Tournament game. The success led Shrewsberry to take over at Notre Dame and Penn State hired VCU head coach Mike Rhoades. A 4-0 start through a light path has soured on this year’s team, a group that has almost no returning experience from last season. Against three top 100 teams in tournament action in Florida Penn State went 0-3, allowing 89, 88, and 86 points, including bitterly losing by double-digits against the VCU team Rhoades used to coach. Penn State has a pair of tricky December games in Big Ten play, opening at Maryland and then hosting Ohio State with getting a split likely important towards a chance at a successful season. 

The Sleeper – Illinois: The resume isn’t there for Illinois right now as the 5-1 start doesn’t include a top 100 win, but the Illini looked the part in a seven-point home loss to highly-ranked Marquette. The defense has brilliant numbers as one of the nation’s leaders in many important categories featuring impressive height and tremendous depth and experience. Transfers Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois) and Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) have joined Terrance Shannon, Ty Rodgers, and Luke Goode for a quality lineup and the Illini should get Coleman Hawkins and Niccolo Moretti back from injury at some point this season. Illinois has only one early season Big Ten game playing at Rutgers next weekend for a game the team likely needs to prove legitimate in this race. Illinois will then get non-conference tests vs. Florida Atlantic and Tennessee as a squad that could be a threat to make a run in the Big Ten race, while looking for a fourth straight NCAA Tournament trip for Brad Underwood. Illinois won a share of the conference title two seasons ago before finishing sixth last season but is currently listed third in the marketplace behind Purdue and Michigan State.