2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Futures (Group Betting)
The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand is right around the corner with it being less than a month away now so it is time to take a deep dive into the individual groups and see where the value is when it comes to making it out of the group stage. Not every group will be covered here as some groups are just harder to find value in due to the different strengths of each group but there is plenty of money to be made with the group betting. Group Outrights/Qualification Group A - New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Switzerland: Group A consists of these 4 teams with Norway being the -300 favorite to win the group, followed by both Switzerland and host nation New Zealand at +500, then Philippines in last at +50000. Norway is clearly the most dominant team in this group and it is very unlikely that another nation swoops in to win the group from them, but the value here is in the 2nd nation to qualify from the group as New Zealand sits at -110 to qualify and Switzerland at -150. The books have Switzerland as the more likely team to go through but New Zealand does have the advantage of being one of the host nations so they will be playing on home soil in this tournament and they also have the advantage of being more adapted to the time zone as well. Switzerland did not perform well at their last major competition either as they failed to get out of the group stage in the 2022 Euro Cup, losing 2 of their matches and drawing 1. New Zealand has not been in great form themselves coming into the tournament and they have not played in a competitive tournament like this in quite a while either, but considering that both New Zealand and Switzerland will likely lose their matches to the dominant Norway but have a good chance at beating the Philippines, there is a very good chance that this qualification spot comes down to the final matchday when New Zealand and Switzerland play each other and anything can happen then with New Zealand playing what is essentially a home match. The value in this group is with New Zealand to advance at -110. Group B - Australia, Canada, Nigeria, Ireland: Group B consists of these 4 teams with host nation Australia as the -200 favorite to win the group, followed by Canada at +200, Ireland at +1600, then Nigeria in last at +3300. Australia is the clear favorite here according to the books as they are one of the host nations and will have home advantage throughout the whole tournament, but they are not the strongest team in this group as they are only 10th in the FIFA Women’s rankings while fellow group member Canada actually comes in as the strongest nation in the group, ranked 7th overall in the world. There is not much value here in taking a team to qualify from the group as Australia and Canada are both top 10 teams in the world, clearly the strongest 2 teams in this group, but there is definitely value in taking Canada to win the group at +200. As mentioned before, Canada is ranked higher in the FIFA rankings than Australia is and they also have a lot more experience playing in these kinds of tournaments. Canada is always a threat deep in the World Cup, they also won the gold medal at the last Olympics and went to the finals of their CONCACAF Nations League which they lost to USA who is the best team in the world right now. This is another situation in which the group winner could come down to when Australia plays Canada in their match against each other and even though Australia does have the home advantage, Canada has a stronger team with more talent on it. The value in this group is with Canada to win the group at +200. Group D - China, Denmark, England, Haiti: Group D consists of these 4 teams with England being the -3300 favorite to win the group, followed by Denmark at +1200, China at +4000, then Haiti in last at +8000. This group has a very clear cut favorite here with England and for good reason as England did win the last Euro Cup just a year ago, but the books think no team in this group can come close to touching England and that is simply not the case here. China and Haiti do not have much of a chance of getting out of this group but the other team that is favored to qualify, Denmark, definitely has an outside chance of winning this group over England. England is ranked 4th in the world after winning the 2022 Euro Cup as well as the CONMEBOL UEFA Cup of Champions, but despite all of the wins they have been racking up recently, they have not been winning a lot of their matches convincingly as they are just finding ways to win and even needed more than 90 mins to get past some of the stronger teams they have seen in these major competitions. Denmark has not had the same success in recent major competitions but they are still ranked 13th in the world and have been climbing the rankings lately with a string of great performances. Denmark also has a very strong squad with a lot of their starting players coming from the top 3 teams in the Women’s Super League so they are definitely a threat in this tournament. Since the other 2 teams in this group are much weaker as well, there is a very good chance that this is another situation in which the group winner comes down to this match and anything can happen, especially if goal differential has to come into play. The value in this group is with Denmark to win the group at +1200 as this is just too much value for a very good quality Denmark team. Group G - Argentina, Italy, South Africa, Sweden: Group G consists of these 4 teams with Sweden being the -600 favorite to win the group, followed by Italy at +550, Argentina at +1600, then South Africa in last at +6600. Sweden is the clear favorite to win this group and for good reason as they have one of the best teams in the world. Sweden is ranked 3rd in the world but they also have a very good history of going deep into this competition as they won the bronze at the last World Cup and have placed 3rd in 2 of the last 3 World Cups as well. The value here is not in the group winner but instead is with a team to qualify. Italy is a big -450 favorite to qualify but they are only ranked 16th in the world as this is not a very strong group with the teams in it, other than Sweden. Argentina is ranked 28th in the World and were not able to do much in the last Copa America as they picked up losses to both Brasil and Colombia, but beating Italy is a very different story. Italy has not been in good form coming into this tournament as they have been losing a lot of their games. They also disappointed heavily the last time they were in a major competition as they failed to make it out of the group stage of the 2022 Euro Cup, losing 2 of their matches and drawing 1. Argentina did not come away with the trophy in the last Copa America but they still performed well in the tournament and have been in very good form coming into this tournament. This could be another situation where the team that qualifies comes down to this match and considering that they play each other on the 1st matchday as well, Argentina could easily catch Italy off guard here with them coming into the tournament in such bad form and that 1 result could be detrimental in a group where only 3 matches are played. The value in this group is with Argentina to qualify at +333. Group H - Colombia, Germany, South Korea, Morocco: Group H consists of these 4 teams with Germany being the -2000 favorite to win the group, followed by Colombia at +1200, South Korea at +2000, then Morocco in last at +15000. Germany is coming in as the clear favorite to win this group and for good reason as they are ranked 2nd in the world. Once again, the value is not with a group winner here but instead is with a team to qualify. Colombia comes into the tournament at -150 to qualify out of the group while South Korea is -110. South Korea is ranked higher in the FIFA Women’s rankings as they are 17th in the world while Colombia is only 25th in the world, but Colombia has been in much better form than South Korea has been in coming into this tournament. South Korea did not play well back in February at the Arnold Clark Cup as they lost all 3 of their matches and even in the East Asian Championship last year, they lost to Japan, drew with China, and their only win in the tournament came against the Chinese Taipei. Colombia has actually been in very good form from their recent matches and even in the last major competition they were in, they won every single match they played in the Copa America until the finals which they only lost 1-0 to Brasil. Colombia has a lot of momentum coming into this tournament and considering that this could be another situation where the team that qualifies comes down to this match, Colombia will have the advantage since they play each other on the 1st matchday and could catch the out of form South Korea team off guard, sending them into a spiral for the rest of the tournament as they try to chase points. The value in this group is with Colombia to qualify at -150.
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