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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds 05/19/22

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 19, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the Eastern Conference finals with Game 2 of the best-of-seven game series between the Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics on ESPN at 8:30 PM ET. The Heat took the first game of this series with a 118-107 victory over the Celtics in Game 1 as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Miami has won seven of their last nien games while Boston has lost four of their last seven. The Heat are a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The conference semifinals in the National Hockey League continue with two games on TNT. Florida hosts Tampa Bay at 7:07 PM ET. The Lightning have a 1-0 lead in this series after their upset 4-1 victory in the first game of this series on Tuesday. They have won three games in a row. Florida had a three-game losing streak snapped with the loss. The Panthers are a  -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Colorado plays at home against St. Louis at 9:37 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 3-2 victory against the Blues on Tuesday. Colorado has won five in a row. St. Blues had been on a three-game winning streak before the loss on Tuesday. The Avalanche are a -235 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Thursday schedule in Major League Baseball has eight games on the schedule. The New York Yankees visit Baltimore at 12:35 PM ET as a -210 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Philadelphia hosts San Diego at 1:05 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Cleveland plays at home against Cincinnati as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets are at home against St. Louis as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Chicago White Sox travels to Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Boston hosts Seattle at 7:10 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Arizona visits Chicago to play the Cubs at 7:40 PM ET as a -110 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8.Houston plays at home against Texas at 8:10 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 37 of the English Premier League concludes with three matches. Everton is at home against Crystal Palace on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Two matches begin on Peacock at 3 PM ET. Aston Villa hosts Burnley as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Leicester City as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

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The Phoenix Suns Do Not Have a "Math Problem" -- On Lazy Thinking about 3-Point Shooting

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

As the eulogies for the demise of the Phoenix Suns continue, a common refrain is that this team was destined to experience trouble in the postseason because they are too reliant on shooting inside the arc. This notion is both lazy and wrong — and it had nothing to do with why they lost their Game Seven showdown at home to the Dallas Mavericks by a whopping 123-90 score. Just a gentle reminder for those not old enough to remember the 2020-21 season: the Suns won the Western Conference and played in the NBA Finals. Granted, they lost that series to the Milwaukee Bucks in Six Games, but that does challenge the notion that Phoenix’s style of play was only built for regular-season success (and granted, it was a year ago at this time when many of these same critics were convinced they were better head coaches than Mike Budenholzer because of their sophisticated opinions on the best way to execute drop coverages about pick-and-rolls; funny, the “Budenholzer can’t coach” crowd has become silent). Phoenix did go into the fourth quarter of that Game Six on the road with the game tied. Most teams that leap from not even making the playoffs the previous season to being one quarter away from playing in a Game Seven of an NBA Finals would be lauded. Not Phoenix — they have a fundamental “math problem” because they fail to grasp the fact that three points are more than two points. The Suns indeed are one of the least reliant teams on 3-point shooting. Last year, they took 39.2% of their shots from the field from behind the arc, ranking 15th in the league. That number actually dropped in the playoffs to a 35.6% clip, ranking 13th of the 16 teams in the postseason. Phoenix’s Offensive Efficiency ranked 7th in the NBA in the regular season -- and it did drop to 10th in the postseason. But before you started screaming “Evidence!” — keep in mind that Milwaukee was crowned champion ranking 11th in the postseason in Offensive Efficiency despite taking 38.4% of their shots from 3-point range. Here’s the thing about math: making 34% of your 3-point shots does not produce more points than making, say, 52% of your 2-point shots. If a team takes 100 shots — all from 3-point land — and hits 34% of them, that results in 102 points.  If their opponent takes 100 shots — all 2-pointers inside the arc — and hist 52% of these shots, they generate 104 points. Losing by two points, 104-102, presents a “math problem” for the team relying on 3-pointers. This season, Phoenix saw their 3-point attempts actually drop to a 35.4% clip of all the shots they took from the field, ranking 27th in the NBA. But not only did they then earn the top record in the regular season, but they also raised their Offensive Rating to fifth in the league. In the playoffs, their 3-point shooting actually lowered to representing just 32.8% of their shots, ranking 15th of 16 teams. Yet their Offensive Efficiency ranked 4th of all playoff teams. But, wait! The problem for the Suns is they ran into a Dallas team that simply understood how math works. The Mavericks top all postseason teams by attempting 49.8% of their shots from 3-point range. They get it! Three is more than two, idiots! Yet Dallas ranked just 14th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency in the regular season, they enter the Western Conference Finals ranking 5th in Offensive Efficiency — just behind the Suns' team they just dispatched. Yeah, but, Phoenix sure could have used some 3-point shooting in their humiliating loss to Dallas in Game Seven! The Mavericks set the tone by nailing 19 of their 39 shots from downtown for a 49% clip. Well, you will get no argument from me that it is tough to beat a team that makes nearly 50% of their shots from behind the arc — especially when they take half their shots from 3-point land. But the Suns did attempt 34 shots from 3-point range themselves — and their 35% field goal percentage from their 12 made 3s was around their average. What buried Phoenix in Game Seven was that they could not make their shots inside the arc. They missed 32 of their 53 shots that count for 2-points for a 39.6% percentage. The Suns had a 55.2% field goal percentage inside the arc in the regular season. If they meet that expectation in Game Seven, they make eight more baskets and score 16 more points. Admittedly, that only cuts the Dallas lead in half — but going into halftime trailing by 15 points is much different than going into halftime down an incredible 30 points. If Phoenix hits their 2s, the game script changes, and the Mavericks feel more pressure on the road — and perhaps they don’t continue their torrid 56.8% shooting clip. It’s a lot easier to make shots up 30 points. The Suns have problems. The effort in that Game Seven was not simply the result of bad luck outliers given the math problem inherent in the chaos of shooting a round ball into a round hole. But this was a team that began the playoffs with eight straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots (twice eclipsing 60%) and posted an Offensive Rating of 114.8 (which would be third best if applied to the regular season). Furthermore, the case can be made that Phoenix’s consistency with their shooting inside the arc helped them win close games during the regular season. In clutch situations where the game was still within five points with five minutes left to go, the Suns enjoyed an Offensive Efficiency Rating of 131.6. That helped them post a 33-9 record in games that were within five minutes with five minutes to go. The football analytics folks would argue that those results are completely a function of luck. The basketball analytics folks are more open to the idea that perhaps success like that is a function of skill. Of course, Phoenix was touchdowns away from being within five points of the Mavericks with five minutes left to go in their Game Seven. But to suggest that the problem with the Suns is that their offense would be better if they simply took more 3-point shots because “3 is more than 2!” is monumentally lacking. Don’t get me wrong, I do think Phoenix could use another reliable outside shooter. But the system deployed by head coach Monty Williams is not fundamentally flawed. The Suns got embarrassed in Game Seven because they are broken elsewhere. Best of luck — Frank.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/18/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association begins the Western Conference finals with Game 1 of the best-of-seven game series between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Warriors won their third game in their last four in beating Memphis in six games with their 110-96 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. The Mavericks won their fourth game in their last five with a 123-90 upset victory at Phoenix in Game 7 of their second-round series on Sunday. Golden State is a 5-point home favorite with the total set at 214.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The conference semifinals in the National Hockey League continue with two games on ESPN. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Rangers at 7:07 PM ET. The Hurricanes won their second game in their last three with a 3-2 victory against Boston in the seventh game of their opening-round series on Saturday. The Rangers are on a three-game winning streak after a 4-3 win against Pittsburgh in Game 7 of their first-round series on Sunday. Carolina is a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Edmonton Oilers at 9:37 PM ET. The Flames won their third game in their last four with a 3-2 victory against Dallas in the seventh game of their first-round series on Sunday. The Oilers won their second straight game to rally from a 3-2 series deficit to defeat Los Angeles, 2-0, in Game 7 of their opening-round series on Saturday. Calgary is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. Milwaukee is at home against Atlanta as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Tampa Bay hosts Detroit as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. San Francisco travels to Colorado at 3:10 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Minnesota plays at Oakland at 3:37 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against Arizona at 4:10 PM ET as a -290 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games start at 6:10 PM ET. Cleveland is at home against Cincinnati as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Houston visits Boston as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Miami hosts Washington at 6:40 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Philadelphia plays at home against San Diego at 6:45 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees are at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Toronto is at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET as a -235 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets are at home against St. Louis at 7:10 PM ET as a -190 money line with a total of 7. The Chicago Cubs host Pittsburgh at 7:40 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite. The Los Angeles Angels visit Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox plays at Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5.

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The NBA Western Conference Finals

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Is it time to bid farewell to the NBA as we once knew it?There will be a new champion, and it will come from a group of four teams that couldn’t even make it to Round 2 last season. Besides the Bucks being unable to repeat, we have said adios to Brooklyn, a team built with three stars; Phoenix, which tied its horse to aging Chris Paul but could get only so far; and Philadelphia, who appears to have hitched its wagon to a James Harden whose best days are in the rearview mirror and getting smaller by the game.With the old guard and the old way of assembling teams skating on thin ice, say hello to the Dallas Mavericks and its single-star concept. Whether by design or just Mark Cuban’s inability to add another big gun to the roster, the Mavs have ridden Luka Doncic and a plethora of role players all the way to the Western Conference finals.Dallas opens final four play Wednesday night against the Warriors, a (very) veteran team that represents the last holdout for the three-star concept. If the Mavs are able to overcome considerable odds (GS is -210, Dallas +180 in the series) and actually takes care of business, it could mean that other teams will take a long hard look before they accede to the wishes of superstars and try to load up on talent and let the rest take care of itself.Against the heavily favored Suns in the Western semis, Doncic scoffed when Phoenix took a 2-0 series lead, then put the hammer down in an astonishing Game 7. Doncic scored Dallas’s first 8 points, the Mavs had a 57-27 lead at halftime, and then spent the third quarter conducting an autopsy on the beleaguered Suns. The lead was 46 at one point, as Suns stars Paul and Devin Booker had zero answers.Dallas is hardly expecting Golden State to be as compliant as the Suns were. Steph Curry is Steph Curry, Klay Thompson is rounding into form after returning from injury, and Draymond Green is always ready to bust a vein when things go even a little bit wrong. The Warriors’ pass-and-cut offense allows the defense no rest, and even Doncic will have to work on the other end.Doncic won’t have to do it alone, but any help he gets will come from an unlikely source – because the rest of the rotation is filled with unlikely sources. Jalen Brunson is as close to Robin as there is for Doncic’s Batman, but Brunson will have his hands full running through screens and chasing Curry or Thompson.  Spencer Dinwiddie torched the Suns for 30 (9 more than Paul and Booker had, combined) but is in and out. Reggie Bullock and Dwight Powell scare no one.The Warriors, who are 5-point favorites in Wednesday’s Game 1, will no doubt game plan to tire and slow down Doncic, who was admittedly in poor shape to start the season. In Round 1 Utah made only token efforts at defense, and the Suns simply ran out of gas and lacked a coherent defensive approach. GS coach Steve Kerr will no doubt come up with something, perhaps hounding the ball-dominant Donic the same way that Boston harassed Milwaukee do-everything Giannis Antetkounmpo. Giannas had nothing left by the second half of Game 7 after dealing with multiple defenders and double-teams for two weeks. OTOH, the Bucks couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean from 3, and that’s what Golden State does best.Ask the oddsmakers, and they’ll simply count the number of stars on each team, and tell you that the Warriors will make another run at the title. They’re the betting favorite to win it all at +135, with Boston (+175) and Miami (+490) behind GS. Bringing up the rear are the Mavericks, at +565. More motivation for a team with one star aching to change the power structure and perhaps alter the way teams are built in the Association.

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Opening Round Recap

by Ben Burns

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

The second round of the NHL playoffs begins this evening. If its anything like the opening round, hockey fans are in for a treat. Let's take a look at some of the top stories, thus far. SCORING IS UPThough things started slowing down slightly towards the end, scoring was way up in the first round of the playoffs. For years, we've been seeing O/U lines of 4.5, 5, or 5.5 in the postseason. This year, the majority of the O/U lines are 6.5. Often, you even have to lay extra juice to play the 'over' 6.5. Yet, despite the high lines, many games continued to fly over the total. The only series which was somewhat "normal," in terms of scoring, was the Dallas/Calgary one. It'll be interesting to see how the upcoming round plays out. WINNER-TAKE-ALLNot only did the first round feature more scoring than normal but it also included a lot of "bonus hockey." A whopping five (of the eight) matchups went the distance. In four of those cases, the home team won. Of course, fans love goals and they love Game 7's. So, in terms of excitement, the postseason is off to a great start. POOR TORONTOThe lone home team which didn't win Game 7 was Toronto. I abandoned any allegiances long ago. However, I grew up a Leafs' fan. So, I can empathize. A few bright spots notwithstanding, for my entire life, the Leafs have under-achieved. So, their supporters are accustomed to heartache and disappointment. This year appeared like it might be different. Then, it wasn't. THREE-PEAT?By rallying to beat Toronto, Tampa showed the heart of a champion. It wouldn't be wise to write the champs off. The Leafs took them to the brink though and the Lightning lost Brayden Point to injury. Now, they face in-state rival Florida. The Panthers are coming off a great regular season and they're coming in hungry. The All-Florida showdown should be a good one. A LEAGUE OF THEIR OWN?The only series of the first round which ended up being a mismatch was Colorado vs. Nashville. The Avalanche were clearly the stronger team. They swept the 4-game series and outscored the Predators by a combined score of 21-9. Besides Colorado, every other team was tested. While the Avs should receive a tougher test from the Blues, they do look like they'll be tough to stop. Good luck in the second round and enjoy the games. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/17/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association begins the Eastern Conference finals with Game 1 of the best-of-seven game series between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat on ESPN at 8:30 PM ET. Miami has won six of their last eight games after beating Philadelphia on the road, 99-90, as a 2-point underdog in the sixth game of their series last Thursday. Boston has won three of their last four after beating Milwaukee in Game 7, 109-81, as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami is a 1.5-point home favorite with the total set at 204 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The conference semifinals in the National Hockey League begin with two games on TNT. Florida hosts Tampa Bay at 7:07 PM ET. The Panthers won three games in a row after a 4-3 win at Washington on Friday to close out that opening-round series in six games. The Lightning beat Toronto on the road, 2-1, in Game 7 of their first-round series on Sunday. Florida is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Colorado plays at home against St. Louis at 9:37 PM ET. The Avalanche come off a four-game sweep against Nashville after their 5-3 victory on the road on May 9th. The Blues have won three in a row after beating Minnesota, 5-1, on Thursday to win that series in six games. Colorado is a -215 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 18 games on the schedule. The Chicago White Sox play at Kansas City in the opening game of their doubleheader at 2:10 PM ET. Two games throw out the first pitch at 3:10 PM ET. Arizona is at Los Angeles to play the Dodgers in the first game of their doubleheader. St. Louis travels to New York against the Mets. Two MLB games start at 6:10 PM ET. The Mets are at home against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader. Cleveland is at home against Cincinnati as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 6:40 PM ET. Washington is at Miami. Tampa Bay hosts Detroit as a -280 money line favorite with a total of 7. San Diego visits Philadelphia at 6:45 PM ET. The New York Yankees play at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Toronto plays at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox are at Kansas City in the second game of their doubleheader. Houston is at Boston on TBS with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games start at 7:40 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at Chicago against the Cubs. Atlanta visits Milwaukee. The Los Angeles Angels play at Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Francisco travels to Colorado at 8:40 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. Minnesota plays at Oakland at 9:40 PM ET. Arizona travels to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers in the second game of their doubleheader at 10:10 PM  ET. Matchweek 37 in the English Premier League continues with one match on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET. Liverpool plays at Southampton as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/16/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 16, 2022

The Monday sports card features MLB and EPL action.The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 13 games on the schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Miami hosts Washington with Sandy Alcantara pitching for the Marlins against the Nationals’ Aaron Sanchez. Miami is a -220 money line favorite with the total set at 7 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Tampa Bay plays at home versus Detroit, with Corey Kluber being the Rays’ starting pitcher against the Tigers’ Alex Faedo. The New York Yankees visit Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET. Luis Severino pitches for the Yankees against Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. New York is a -220 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Toronto is at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Yusei Kikuchi against the Mariners’ Chris Flexen. Toronto is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against St. Louis, with Trevor Williams pitching for the Mets against Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. New York is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston hosts Houston with the Red Sox pitching Garrett Whitlock against the Astros’ Jake Odorizzi. Boston is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 7:40 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs are at home against Pittsburgh. The Cubs tap Wade Miley as their starting pitcher against a Pirates pitcher that has yet to be named. Milwaukee plays at home against Atlanta, with Wily Peralta pitching for the Brewers against Ian Anderson for the Braves. Milwaukee is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Texas at 8:05 PM ET. Noah Syndergaard pitches for the Angels against Jon Gray for the Rangers. Los Angeles is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Kansas City hosts the Chicago White Sox at 8:10 PM ET. The Royals pitch Brad Keller against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the White Sox. San Francisco plays at Colorado at 8:40 PM ET. Alex Wood is the starting pitcher for the Giants against Antonio Senzatela for the Rockies. San Francisco is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11. Minnesota travels to Oakland at 9:40 PM ET. The Twins pitch Chris Archer against the A’s starting pitcher Zach Logue. Minnesota is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against Arizona at 10:10 PM ET. Tony Gonsolin pitches for the Dodgers against Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks. Los Angeles is a -235 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Matchweek 37 in the English Premier League continues with one match on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. Arsenal visits Newcastle United as a -0.5 goal line road favorite at Play MGM with a total of 2.5.

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NBA Conference Finals Preview

by Will Rogers

Monday, May 16, 2022

Conference Finals PreviewWe’re down to the NBA’s version of the “Final Four” as it’s Celtics vs Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals and Mavericks vs. Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.Here’s a preview on both upcoming series.  Celtics vs. Heat - The chalk walked in the East as these are the top two seeds. Boston was the only team to sweep a first round series (over Brooklyn) but was then taken to seven games by Milwaukee. Two of the Celtics’ three losses to the Bucks were by three points or less. Three of the four wins were by double digits. Boston should have won Game 5, so it’s fair to say they were the better team in that last series. Beating Brooklyn and Milwaukee is an impressive path to take here. Miami has beaten Atlanta and Philadelphia, needing five and six games to do so. The Heat have not lost at home in the playoffs and have the home court advantage for the ECF.Boston won two of three regular season meetings. The lone game at Miami was played in November and the Celts won 95-78. They are 3-0 ATS in their last three visits to South Beach and all three of those games stayed Under.The Celtics had the East’s top regular season scoring differential and top scoring defense. If they had home court advantage, they’d be the clear favorite in this series. But they do not. They are still -165 to win the series at Caesars. Miami is #2 in defensive efficiency in the playoffs (Milwaukee was #1) but Boston is #4. Offensively, both are middle of the pack in efficiency and pace.Kyle Lowry is still questionable for Game 1 (hamstring). He has missed six of the last eight games for the Heat and didn’t look good in the two he played. Boston enters the ECF relatively healthy. Jimmy Butler has been the clear standout for Miami. He is averaging 28.7 points and his shooting (52.5% overall, 36.4% from three) has been very good. In particular, Butler’s three-point shooting is way up compared to the regular season.The Celtics are 7-3-1 ATS in the postseason and 7-4 Under. Their games have averaged 210.3 points. The Heat are 7-4 ATS and the Under is 8-2-1. Their 11 playoff games have averaged 204.6 points. Expect low totals in this series. Game 1 opened at 206 and was quickly bet down. Miami is a 1.5-point favorite as of this writing.These are the two franchises with the most ECF appearances, going back to 2005. Miami will be trying to make its sixth NBA Finals in the last 12 years. Boston has lost its last four ECF, two of them to Miami.  Mavericks vs Warriors - After stampeding the Suns in Game 7, Dallas is your surprising Conference Finalist this year. They were the 4-seed and have beaten Utah and Phoenix, needing six and seven games. The Mavs are 8-5 SU in the playoffs, 9-4 ATS and 8-5 Under. Those 13 games have averaged 208.1 points.Golden State is the three seed and now has home court advantage in the WCF. Their playoff games have averaged 224.8 points, a clear outlier from the other three teams discussed today. The Warriors are 8-3 in the playoffs. They needed five games to get rid of the Nuggets and six to get rid of the Grizzlies, who lost Ja Morant along the way. The Warriors are 5-6 ATS and the Under is 7-4. Like Miami, the Warriors have yet to lose at home in the playoffs. They are 6-0 straight up, but just 4-2 ATS. So they are 1-4 ATS on the road. When Dallas is at home, be aware that they allow a league-low 101 points. Golden State allows the second fewest points at home. The Mavs held the Suns to 90 points in Game 7. A trend to be aware of is that the Mavs are 9-0 straight up, 8-0-1 ATS this season if they allowed 90 points or less the last game. Dallas won three of the four regular season matchups. The Over/Under was a 2-2 split. The one road win in the four games came from Dallas, who erased a 12-point halftime deficit on February 27th. Gary Payton II would have likely drawn the defensive assignment against Luka Doncic. But he’s probably out for the series. Doncic averaged 31.5 vs. the Warriors this year. It was the fourth most points scored in a single year against them since Steve Kerr’s first season here (2014-15).Golden State is -260 to win the series at Caesars. 

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The NBA Eastern Conference Finals

by AAA Sports

Monday, May 16, 2022

Remember the Boston Celtics from the first half of this NBA season? Well, you can forget them, because they don’t exist anymore. The .500 Celtics have been replaced with the playoff nightmare that has now taken down the dysfunctional Brooklyn Nets and the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and is now turning its hungry eyes southward toward Miami.The Celtics have only one day of rest before they deal with the Heat in Miami in Game 1 of what has become a fascinating Eastern Conference playoffs. That fact, plus the first two games being in South Florida, has hardly fazed oddsmakers who have already installed Boston as the favorite to escape the East and take on either Golden State or Dallas in the Finals. Bovada has the Celtics at -170 in the EC finals, and Miami at +150 – even though Miami is a consensus -2 favorite in Game 1.If the Celtics are tired from their seven-game grinder of a series against the Bucks, the momentum from their 28-point (109-81) Game 7 hammering of the Bucks should help compensate for weary bones. Plus, the Heat have only a day to figure out what to do about a Boston offense that suddenly is fat with production from unlikely sources. What kind of odds could you have gotten at the corner bar on Grant Williams outscoring Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 7? Or bottom-of-the-rotation guard Payton Pritchard getting big minutes and hit killer 3 after killer 3?This past Sunday’s domination of the Bucks (Boston outscored Milwaukee by a combined total of 38 points in Games 6 and 7) certainly raised eyebrows in South Beach, and no doubt they will try something different to contain Boston superstar-in-the-making Jayson Tatum. Tatum was “held” to 23, 6 rebounds and 8 assists on Sunday as he willingly passed up shots (something he didn’t do early on this season), but Miami knows it will most likely get the Game 6 Tatum (46, 9 and 4). How Erik Spoelstra decides to defend Tatum will be a fascinating for NBA X’s and O’s geeks. Tatum saw a wide array of double-teams when these teams met in the Bubble EC finals a few years ago, but Tatum has since become a more willing facilitator.On the other end of the court, the Heat will have different issues in trying to penetrate Boston’s best-in-the-NBA defense, the one which has gotten the better of Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant over the last three weeks. No small feat. And consider that Boston’s defensive anchor, center Robert Williams, played sparingly in the Milwaukee series due to a leg injury, and he should be good to go against the Heat.Boston coach Ime Udoka gambled, successfully, that he wouldn’t need Robert Williams in Game 7.In the Bubble EC finals the Celtics were drawn and quartered as they tried to defend Bam Adebayo with Daniel Theis. This time around Theis will be a 10-minute-a-game sub and Al Horford is back to deal with Miami’s length at the position. Toss in Robert Williams, who was a non-factor in the 2020 playoffs vs. the Heat, and the Celtics are a different team in the paint. And this time around Boston’s defense doesn’t have to compensate for opposing guards blowing by Kemba Walker and getting to the rim.In addition to Boston being favored to win this series, the Celtics are listed at +210 to +240 to win the NBA title, depending on the book. That’s after opening the season at +5000. Miami is +440 to +500, after starting the season at +3500.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/15/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 15, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association concludes the conference semifinals with two playoff games. Boston hosts Milwaukee on ABC at 3:30 PM ET. The Celtics forced a seventh game of this series with a 108-95 upset victory on the road against the Bucks as a 1.5-point underdog on Friday. Boston is a 5-point favorite with the total set at 206.5. Phoenix plays at home against Dallas on TNT at 8 PM ET. The Mavericks made it a 3-3 series with their 113-86 upset win as a 2-point underdog at home in Game 6 on Friday. The Suns are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 205.Two Game 7s are on the slate to conclude the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. The New York Rangers are at home against Pittsburgh on TBS at 7:07 PM ET. They forced a Game 7 with their 5-3 victory on the road against the Penguins on Friday. New York is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Calgary is at home against Dallas on ESPN2 at 9:37 PM ET. The Stars won Game 6 of this series to even things at 3-3 with a 4-2 victory on Friday. The Flames are a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on the schedule. Atlanta hosts San Diego on Peacock at 11:35 AM ET as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games start at 1:35 PM ET. Houston travels to Washington as a -195 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Pittsburgh plays at home against Cincinnati as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against Seattle as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Milwaukee visits Miami as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Detroit is at home against Baltimore as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Toronto plays at Tampa Bay as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees travel to Chicago to play the White Sox as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Minnesota hosts Cleveland as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Texas is at home against Boston at 2:35 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8.5. Colorado plays at home against Kansas City at 3:10 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. The Los Angeles Angels play at Oakland at 4:07 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games begin at 4:10 PM ET. Arizona hosts the Chicago Cubs as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Philadelphia as a -110 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has San Francisco playing at St. Louis on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET. The Giants are a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 7.Matchweek 37 of the English Premier League starts with seven matches. Tottenham hosts Burnley at 7 AM ET on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from Play MGM). Five matches begin at 9 AM ET. Aston Villa is at home against Crystal Palace on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion visit Watford as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City is at West Ham United on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Wolverhampton plays at home against Norwich City on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Everton hosts Brentford on the USA Network at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/14/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 14, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NHL and MLB action.Three Game 7s are on the slate in the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. Carolina hosts Boston on ESPN at 4:37 PM ET. The Bruins forced a Game 7 with their 5-2 victory on Thursday. The Hurricanes are a -135 money line favorite, with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Toronto plays at home against Tampa Bay on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Lightning evened this series at 3-3 with a 4-3 victory in overtime on Thursday. The Maple Leafs are a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Edmonton is at home against Los Angeles on ESPN at 10:07 PM ET. The Oilers beat the Kings on the road, 4-2, on the Thursday to avoid elimination and force this Game 7. Edmonton is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. St. Louis hosts San Francisco at 2:15 PM ET. The Cardinals pitch Dakota Hudson against the Giants' Jakob Junis. St. Louis is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Atlanta plays at home against San Diego on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET. Charlie Morton pitches for the Braves against Sean Manaea of the Padres. Atlanta is a -135 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Angels visit Oakland in the opening game of their double-header at 4:07 PM ET. The Angels pitch Jhonathon Diaz against the A's Paul Blackburn. Los Angeles is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Detroit is at home against Baltimore at 4:10 PM ET. Michael Pineda is the starting pitcher for the Tigers against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Detroit is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.Two games throw out the first pitch at 6:10 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at Miami. The Brewers pitch Eric Lauer against the Marlins' Trevor Rogers. Milwaukee is a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Toronto travels to Tampa Bay with Hyun-Jin Ryu pitching for the Blue Jays against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. Cincinnati is at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET. Louis Castillo goes for the Reds against Zach Thompson of the Pirates.Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET Boston plays at Texas at 7:05 PM ET with Rich Hill pitching for the Red Sox against Glenn Otto of the Rangers. Houston visits Washington with the Astros pitching Cristian Javier against the Nationals' Erick Fedde. Houston is a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees play at Chicago against the White Sox ,with Jordan Montgomery pitching for the Yankees against Dallas Keuchel of the White Sox. New York is a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets are at home against Seattle, with the Mets pitching Chris Bassitt against the Mariners' George Kirby. New York is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7. Cleveland plays at Minnesota with Shane Bieber pitching for the Guardians against Devin Smeltzer of the Twins.Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Colorado hosts Kansas City with the Rockies pitching German Marquez against the Royals' Daniel Lynch. Colorado is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Arizona plays at home against Chicago Cubs with Zac Gallen pitching for the Diamondbacks against Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs. Arizona is a -160 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.The Los Angeles Angels play at Oakland in the second game of their doubleheader at 9:40 PM ET. Michael Lorenzen pitches for the Angels against Adam Oller of the A's. Philadelphia is at Los Angeles to play the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET. The Phillies pitch Ranger Suarez against the Dodgers' Julio Urias.

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NFL Draft Winners & Losers

by ASA, Inc.

Friday, May 13, 2022

Winners Jets: We won’t talk too much about the Jets because the general consensus is that they dominated the draft. Its easy to pick good players with so many choices in the 1st round but New York may have gotten the top CB, WR, DE, and RB with their first four selections. Jermaine Johnson dropped all the way to 26 and capped off one of the best 1st round drafts we have seen in years.  Chiefs: The loss of Tyreek Hill will hurt, and Kansas City was a prime candidate to take an early wide receiver. Unfortunately, the top six WRs went before their first pick. Like any well-run team, they simply capitalized on other talent available and got two elite players in Trent McDuffie (CB) and George Karlaftis (EDGE). Sky Moore (WR) in the 2nd round is a perfect fit for Andy Reid and may turn out to be just as productive as one of the top six WRs taken. Leo Channel (LB) in the 3rd is one of our favorite additions for the Chiefs as he runs 4.53, has a 40+ inch vertical, and stands 6’3 250lbs.  Packers: The Packers had an eerily similar draft to that of KC while having similar needs. With no WRs available, Green Bay loaded the defensive side of the ball and will have one of the best overall defenses in the league this year. Two of Georgia’s best players (Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt) from their historic National Championship team will boost a defense that finished 9th in yards allowed in 2021. Christian Watson (WR) is the wild card of the Packers draft. Standing 6’4, 208lbs, he can fly at 4.36 speed and made the FCS competition at NDSU look like JV players. Romeo Doubs (WR) in the 4th round will also help the back to back MVP feel comfortable without Davonte Adams.    Losers Jaguars: With lots of draft capital per usual, the Jags did not impress. It was probably a tall task to try and trade the first overall pick because of the plethora of options available this draft. Still, Devin Lloyd at the end of the 1st round did not feel like a win. With all of the offensive lineman and receiver talent still available at that spot, Jacksonville chose not to invest in Trevor Lawrence’s future. Instead, they would rather overpay average veterans Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.  Bears: What does Justin Fields have to do to get some help? Chicago invested a lot to move up for Fields last year. Many rookies struggle in year one, but to go into year two while fielding one of the worst receiving groups in the NFL is worrisome. They did add speedy (4.31) WR Velus Jones in the 3rd, however he is not a real rookie threat in that offense. Every team in the NFL seems to have put a premium on obtaining offensive weaponry, yet both the Jags and Bears failed to help out their young QBs who could see their growth stunted before given a true chance to succeed. 

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