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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jul 03, 2023

The Monday sports card features action in MLB and the CFL.Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros at 2:05 PM ET. Martin Perez takes the ball for the Rangers to pitch against Cristian Javier for the Astros. Texas is a -115 money-line favorite, with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Chicago Cubs at 2:10 PM ET. The Brewers send out Julio Teheran to pitch against the Cubs’ Drew Smiley. Milwaukee is a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 6:05 PM ET. Luke Weaver gets the start for the Reds to battle against Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Cincinnati is a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. The Miami Marlins are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 6:40 PM ET. The Marlins turn to Braxton Garrett to pitch against the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. Miami is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play in New York against the Yankees at 7:05 PM ET. Tyler Wells goes to the mound for the Orioles to duel against Domingo German for the Yankees. Baltimore is a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are in Cleveland to play the Guardians at 7:10 PM ET. The Braves tap Bryce Elder to pitch against the Guardians’ Gavin Williams. Atlanta is a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 PM ET. Joe Ryan takes the hill for the Twins to battle against Austin Cox for the Royals. Minnesota is a -215 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels visit San Diego to play the Padres on FS1 at 9:40 PM ET. The Angels ended a four-game losing streak with a 5-2 victory against Arizona on Sunday. The Padres lost for the seventh time in their last eight games with a 4-3 loss at Cincinnati yesterday. Los Angeles sends out Jaime Barria to face a San Diego starting pitcher yet to be determined. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 9:45 PM ET. Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants to go against Bryan Woo for the Mariners. San Francisco is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Los Angeles against the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET. The Pirates turn to Mitch Keller to toe the rubber against a Dodgers’ starting pitcher yet to be named. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League concludes with the British Columbia Lions traveling to Toronto to play the Argonauts on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Lions improved to 3-0 this season with their 30-6 upset win at Winnipeg as a 6-point underdog on June 22nd. The Argonauts have won their first two games of the season after a 43-31 victory at Edmonton as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. British Columbia is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 47.5.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - July 2, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Sunday, Jul 02, 2023

In MLB on Saturday, we saw six underdogs turn in a profitable night with a 6-7 mark, and two games being a pick. Yesterday's Big Dawg that barked loudest was the Oakland Athletics (+195, DraftKings) eking out a 7-6 win over the Chicago White SoxIt was the second straight night the South Siders fell to the lowly Athletics, and could be something to keep an eye on as Chicago approaches the All-Star Break. Since a five-game win streak to open June, the White Sox have lost 14 of 22 with a bleak offense that is hitting only .235 in that span. Their pitching staff hasn't been any sort of model of consistency, either, with a 4.02 ERA in that same time frame. After today's series finale in Oakland, the Pale Hose return home for six games to close out the first half.I'm on a 7-4 run with MLB totals since May 29, and today I make it 8 of 12 with an Interleague cinch. And let's not forget about my 22-12 MLB run for a net profit of $9,570 since June 13. Let's put the profits to work with my MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH.The dogs split the evening in the WNBA.The Las Vegas Aces (-11) continued terrorizing teams by handing the Eastern Conference's top seed Connecticut a 102-84 beatdown. The total soared past 171. All five starters scored in double figures for the Aces, who topped the 100-point plateau for the third time this season. The Aces have gone over in four of their last five.The Minnesota Lynx (+1) went into Phoenix and defeated the Mercury by 10, an 86-76 decision that crept over the posted total (159'). Minnesota has won three straight both on the court and at the window, and all three have gone over.As part of today's slate, I'm coming out swinging for July with a non-conference clash that reeks of value with the number I'm catching. No reason to ignore this one, as the number is off, and I make the books pay. WNBA NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH goes today.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 07/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jul 02, 2023

The Sunday sports card features action in MLB and the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles on Peacock at 12:05 PM ET. Sonny Gray takes the ball for the Twins to pitch against Cole Irvin for the Orioles. Minnesota is a -125 money-line road favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals as a -240 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Miami Marlins as a -195 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 1:37 PM ET as a -190 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres visit Cincinnati to play the Reds at 1:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Kansas City against the Royals at 2:10 PM ET as a -195 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Yankees play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 2:15 PM ET with both teams priced at -110. The Cleveland Guardians are in Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite. The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros at 2:35 PM ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Detroit Tigers are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 12. Two MLB games start at 4:07 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Los Angeles to play the Dodgers as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox play in Oakland against the A’s. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Tampa Rays at 4:10 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the New York Mets playing at home against the San Francisco Giants. The Mets give the ball to David Peterson to pitch against the Giants’ Ross Stripling. New York is a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The group stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup continues with four matches. Two matches start at 7 PM ET. Jamaica battles Saint Kitts and Nevis on FS1 at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, California as a 4-goal favorite with an over/under of 4.5. The United States faces Trinidad and Tobago at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina as a -2.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. Haiti plays Honduras on FS2 at Bank of America Stadium in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Mexico plays Qatar on FSI a Levi Stadium as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. 

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NASCAR Projections for the Chicago Street Race

by ASA, Inc.

Saturday, Jul 01, 2023

RACE WINNER – Martin Truex Jr. +650 This is the first ever street race in Chicago so there are plenty of unknowns going into this weekend’s event. What we do know is this: The most similar track comparison we can make to this road race is Sonoma, which Truex Jr. and his JGR Toyota won earlier this season. In fact, Truex Jr. has won at Sonoma three times in the last five races run there. The JGR Toyota was clearly set up perfectly for the race earlier this season as MTJ led for 51 laps and had the fastest car in the field. TOP 10 FINISHER – Chris Buescher -120 Buescher has a strong history in road tracks with seven top 10 finishes in as many races. On a similar course in Sonoma, he finished 4th this season and was 2nd last season. The #17 car has an average starting position of 16.4 this season with an average finish of 10.2. Buescher has 8 top 10’s this season in 14 races and has run in the top 10 for 50% of his last ten races. In his last seventeen road course races he’s finished in the top 10 nine times. TOP 3 FINISHER – Denny Hamlin +800 We were surprised by this price on a popular veteran driver like Hamlin and will gladly jump in with a wager on the #11 Toyota. Joe Gibbs Racing has clearly figured out their road race setup as demonstrated earlier this season at Sonoma. JGR had two cars that finished in the top 10 at Sonoma, three in the top 18. Not only that, but Hamlin had won the pole, won the first stage and led for 33 laps before wrecking. In his last seventeen road course starts, Hamlin has led a total of 118 laps (4th most) and has five top 5’s.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - July 1, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Saturday, Jul 01, 2023

In MLB on Friday, we saw eight underdogs turn in a profitable night with an 8-5 mark, and one game being a pick and another postponed. Yesterday's Big Dawg that barked loudest was the Washington Nationals (+160, DraftKings) eking out a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Phillies.An extended road trip is clearly not taking a toll just yet on this squad, as the Nationals have won five of the first seven of their current trek that's gone through San Diego, Seattle, and now Philadelphia. Washington is hitting .250 on this road trip, powering through with eight home runs and 18 doubles for a slugging percentage of .419. In winning five of their last six, the Nationals also boast a rather stingy 2.78 ERA.Friday I hit my A.L. West Dog of the Month on the Astros. I finished June with a profitable 6-3 mark with my MLB Dogs of the Month, and continue this baseball roll I've been on since June 13. Since then, I'm 22-11 with my MLB selections for a net profit of $10,570. For Saturday, I start July with an incredible value in a division showdown, as I love another dog price. Let's grab the cash with another MLB DIVISION DOG OF THE MONTH.The dogs split the evening in the WNBA, with two home teams holding their ground.The Atlanta Dream (+1') rolled past the Washington Mystics, 94-89, and snapped a three-game slide on both the court and at the window. The loss snapped Washington's five-game ATS win streak, but extended their Over streak to three in a row.The Chicago Sky (-2) covered rather easily, dominating the visiting Los Angeles Sparks in an 86-78 victory. It was Chicago's second straight win and cover over the Sparks, who are now mired in a 2-5 skid both SU and ATS since June 16.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL and CONCACAF Gold Cup Previews and Odds - 07/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jul 01, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in MLB, the CFL, and the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The San Diego Padres travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 1:40 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with the total set at 11.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The New York Yankees play in St. Louis against the Cardinals on FS1 in the first game of their doubleheader at 2:15 PM ET. Luis Severino takes the ball for the Yankees to pitch against Jack Flaherty for the Cardinals. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 3:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Houston Astros as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -145 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -200 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles host the Minnesota Twins as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.The Chicago White Sox visit Oakland to play the A’s at 4:07 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. The New York Mets play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -140 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Miami Marlins as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Four MLB games begin at 7:15 PM ET. The Yankees are on the road against the Cardinals in the second game of their doubleheader. Three MLB games are involved in Fox’s regional coverage. Chicago hosts Cleveland, with the Cubs tapping Marcus Stroman to battle against the Guardians Tanner Bibee. The Cubs are a -135 money-line favorite. Tampa Bay travels to Seattle with Tyler Glasnow taking the mound for the Rays to duel against George Kirby for the Mariners. The Rays are a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Los Angeles plays in Kansas City with Julio Urias getting the ball for the Dodgers to pitch against Daniel Lynch for the Royals. The Detroit Tigers play in Colorado against the Rockies at 9:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:07 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Week 4 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers travel to Montreal to play the Alouettes on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Blue Bombers lost their first game of the season in a 30-6 upset loss at home against British Columbia as a 6-point favorite on June 22nd. The Alouettes won their second straight game to begin their season with a 38-12 upset win at Hamilton as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Winnipeg is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5. The group stage of the CONCACAF Gold Cup continues with two matches on FS1 at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas. Guadeloupe battles Cuba at 7:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Canada faces Guatemala at 9:30 PM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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The Collapse of the Miami Heat Offense in their Postseason Run

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Miami Heat were the biggest surprise of the NBA playoffs as they reached the finals despite having to qualify for the postseason through the play-in tournament. Despite losing their initial play-in game at home to the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat demonstrated their internal belief in their culture by going to upset the Eastern Conference top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, the New York Knicks, and then the defending Easter Conference champion Boston Celtics to reach the NBA finals to face the Denver Nuggets.Yet Miami hit a wall with their scoring this postseason. After scoring 128 points in taking a 3-0 lead against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals, they then scored under 100 points in five of their last eight games going into Game 5 of the NBA finals against the Nuggets. Perhaps the nagging ankle injury that Jimmy Butler re-aggravated has removed the x-factor from their offensive attack. Butler was averaging only 21.8 points per game in this series, with the lift and explosion when attacking the rim seemingly gone. After scoring 30 or more points five times in his first eleven playoff games from the Milwaukee series to Game 1 of the Celtics series, he had not scored more than 28 points since. The diminished threat Butler posed in attacking the rim allowed the Nuggets to pay more attention to outside shooters. Perhaps the injuries to Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo had finally begun to take their toll. While Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson had all taken turns being the hero with their 3-point shooting, it is difficult to have to continually rely upon role players that were undrafted free agents coming out of college. Perhaps Miami was simply due to seeing their red-hot 3-point shooting fall back down to earth. After leading all teams in the playoffs with a 39.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land, the Heat had not made more than 33% of their 3-pointers in three of the first four games in the finals. For the series, they were making 36.6% of their 3-pointers which was still above their regular season average of 34.4%. In their 108-95 loss at home to Denver in Game 4, Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 45 points yet they only made 17 of their 36 shots to get there. Vincent and Strus combined to make only one of their ten shots from the field, and they missed all seven of their shots from behind the arc. Butler and Adebayo needed help but the unexpected scoring efforts from the supporting cast petered out. In their last eight games going into Game 5 of the finals, the Heat were averaging 99.4 points per game and thThe ey had only scored more than 103 points once. They have a 43.4% shooting percentage in their last eight games. In this series, Miami was averaging 98.3 points per game on 42.4% shooting after the first four games. Given the wear and tear of the playoff season, it is difficult to expect the Heat to suddenly break out of these negative trends, especially given their injury situation.Denver deserves credit for their defensive play as well. While the trademark of this team is their efficiency on offense, head coach Michael Malone had continued to preach the need to improve their defense as the final piece to a championship puzzle. The Nuggets were allowing 106 points per game in the playoffs going into Game 5 of the NBA finals, down by more than five points from their regular season average. After beginning the NBA finals with a defensive rating of 111.7 in the playoffs, that mark has dropped to 111.1 after the first four games against the Heat, ranking the fifth lowest in the playoffs. Miami has an offensive rating of 109.5 in this series, which is -3.8 points per 100 possessions lower than their regular season mark which ranked only 25th in the league. The Heat were scoring 9.2 fewer points per 100 possessions in the NBA finals versus what they accomplished against Boston last round. The length of the Denver defenders were giving Miami problems. The Heat had played seven of their last nine games under the number after scoring 95 or fewer points in their previous game.Miami played well in the first half of Game 5 in the face of elimination. They scored 51 points and went into halftime with a seven-point lead. Yet the Heat could only score 38 points in the second half as they watched Denver win the game, 94-89, to claim their first NBA title. Miami shot 34% from the field and made only nine shots from 3-point land from a 26% shooting percentage from behind the 3-point line.In the end, the Heat scored more than 103 points just once in their final eight games in the playoffs, and they did not score more than 99 points in five of those games. Despite the oddsmakers moving their over/under number consistently down from its 217 peak in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals and its NBA finals peak of 219 in Game 1, seven of Miami's last eight games of the season finished under the season.Bettors who jumped on board those unders trends were richly rewarded. Good luck - TDG.

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Buyer Beware When It Comes to Backing Dane Dunning

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Texas Rangers had big expectations this season for Jacob DeGrom, who was their big offseason splash in the free-agent market. Yet the Rangers only got six starts and 30 1/3 innings of work from the 35-year-old before an injury that requires Tommy John surgery that will keep him for at least the rest of the 2023 season. Dane Dunning took his place in the Texas starting rotation when DeGrom first got injured earlier in the year. He had a 4-8 record in his 29 starts last year while posting a 4.46 era and a 1.43 whip in 153 1/3 innings. With the Rangers acquiring Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney in addition to DeGrom in the offseason, Dunning was initially the odd man out. Yet after the DeGrom injury, Dunning took full advantage of his opportunity.The 28-year-old right-hander went into his most recent start on Wednesday, June 28th, with a 6-1 record with a 2.76 era and a 1.17 whip in seventeen appearances as a starter or out of the bullpen this season. Despite those impressive numbers, his expected era was almost double his current era at 5.09. He had been pretty fortunate to have a 77.9% strand rate for runners left on base, above the MLB average in the 72% range. The league batting average for balls put into play is in the .290 range yet Dunning had a babip of .267. He had only struck out 14.0% of the batters he had faced, and he had walked 7.3% of opposing hitters. Pitchers that keep their era below 3.00 with strikeout and walk rates like that usually coax ground balls over 50% of the time for the batted balls they allow into play. Dunning’s ground ball rate was 46.7% which is a three-year low. Dunning continued to defy expectations with a dominant performance against the Detroit Tigers in that game. He came one out shy of a complete game while only giving up only four hits and two runs in those 8 2/3 innings of work. He begins July as one of the bigger surprises in MLB with a 7-1 record that accompanies a 2.69 era and a 1.10 whip. Yet how much should be read into that performance against a Tigers team that went into the last day of the month having scored more than three runs just twice in their last six games? Detroit was averaging only 3.8 runs per game this season with a .229 batting average, a .298 on-base percentage, and a slugging percentage of .363 going into their Friday night game in Colorado. Dunning still has an above-average strand rate of 77.9% of runners left on base when he finishes an inning. His batting average of the balls put into play against him is now. 258. Neither of those numbers is likely to remain as favorable. Despite striking out ten batters on Wednesday, his strikeout remains 15.8% of all the batters he has faced. He is averaging only 5.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Perhaps he can keep up a fantastic era, yet he is only inducing ground balls in 48.6% of the batted balls being put into play against him. At this point, Dunning is being priced in as one of the most effective starting pitchers in the American League by the oddsmakers. With those additional numbers providing context, buyer beware for the bettor when it comes to backing Dunning for the second half of the MLB regular season. Good luck - TDG.

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Riding the Miami Heat (even in defeat) to Win Our 2022-23 NBA Game of the Year!

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Miami Heat were limping down the stretch in the NBA postseason with losses in six of their last eight games heading into Game Five of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets. In the face of a crucial situation at home where they had the opportunity to even the series at 2-2, they instead lost by a 108-95 score as a 3-point underdog to give the Nuggets to return home to win the championship with a commanding 3-1 series lead. But we had been riding the Heat for much of the playoff season — and they offered tremendous value as a big underdog getting eight or so points. After losing both games at home to the Nuggets, things were certainly dire for Miami to rally and win this series. But they seemed like they would be a tough out. I had comfortably concluded that the power rankings used to evaluate the Heat were off a bit since they are primarily relying on their regular season numbers where they experienced outlier shooting numbers from behind the arc. After ranking 27th in the league by only making 34.4% of their 3-pointers in the regular season, that mark had improved to a 38.8% shooting percentage which leads all teams in the postseason. When Miami makes their 3s, they usually win. When they don’t, they are in trouble. In Game Four, the Heat only made 8 of 25 shots (32%) from behind the arc — and that was after only converting 11 of their 35 shots (31%) in Game Three. But the last time they played at Ball Arena in Game Two of the NBA Finals, they nailed 17 of their 35 shots (48.6%) from 3-point land. There are a couple of dynamics when the series is 3-1 that came into play for that fifth game. For starters, the pressure drops for the team who is trailing since the deficit seems almost insurmountable. The Heat had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 13 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. They had perhaps been more effective when playing on the road in the postseason where they have been nailing 40.3% of their 3-pointers. Miami had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. The Heat had also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when getting 6.5 to 12 points. Miami had covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when motivated to avenge two straight losses by ten or more points to their opponent.The other thing about 3-1 leads is that they tend to compel the leader to take their foot off the accelerator — especially when that team has two of the remaining three games scheduled on their home court. Denver had been great all season — but one of the flaws of that group is their tendency to get complacent. Remember the 13-2 run that Miami went on to begin the fourth quarter of Game Two? The Heat went on a big run to start the fourth quarter in Game Four — but the Nuggets were able to push back even with Nikola Jokic sitting on the bench with five fouls. That resiliency probably won them the NBA Championship — but it was not going to help them avoid thinking they can simply flip the switch when they need to with the luxury of being back on their home court for Game Five. Denver won both games in Miami by 13 and 15 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games on the road by 10 or more points. And while the Nuggets had covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in five or six in their last seven games.    Miami did get off to a fast start in Game Five as they went into halftime with a 51-44 lead. And while the Nuggets only scored 40 points in the second half, the lack of reliable scoring options for the Heat reared its ugly head as they were only able to score 43 points in the second half. Denver won the game by a 94-89 score to claim their first NBA championship. But they did not cover the eight or so points they were laying — and we won our NBA Game of the Year on Miami plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Ignoring Zig-Zag and Puck Luck: Backing the Vegas Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup Clinching 9-3 Victory

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

The Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with a 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on June 10th. With the series returning to the Las Vegas strip three days late for Game Six, many bettors were tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida. It is a simple and easy formula that sometimes has success, especially in playoff series between good teams who can win on the road. Other bettors continued to be amazed at the “puck luck” that the Golden Knights enjoyed. After the first two games of the series, Vegas was scoring on 12.5% of their shot attempts — a number far above the 8.4% percentage on average for previous Stanley Cup winners at five-on-five even strength. Their goaltenders had a save percentage of .944 in the postseason which was also outperforming previous Stanley Cup winners that had averaged a .930 save percentage. A popular hockey metric is labeled PDO (it’s not an acronym, it comes from the online handle of the person who originally defended the value of this metric in an online forum) — it is a simple addition of save percentage and goal-scoring percentage per shot. A PDO of 100 is the average. A simplistic view of PDO would presume that teams with PDOs above 100 were experiencing good luck while teams with PDOs below 100 were saddled with bad luck. But we should expect Wayne Gretzky and Connor McDavid to have higher goal-scoring percentages than the rest of the league. Vezina Trophy-winning goaltenders are going to have higher save percentages. But it is interesting to compare Stanley Cup contenders with past Stanley Cup champions. The 2011 Boston Bruins had registered the highest PDO in NHL history with a 104.8 in that postseason. Vegas was crushing that mark with a 106.9 PDO.If the Golden Knights were in the middle of a best-of-31 series with the Panthers, then perhaps fading them based on that historically high PDO would make sense. But in a next-game situation, expecting the proverbial Regression Gods to suddenly show up is likely an act guilty of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Just because the roulette wheel landed red ten times in a row, betting on black is not suddenly a better investment. From what I observed in the waning moments of Game Four, I saw Game Five as a great opportunity to invest heavily on Vegas to win that game and clinch the Stanley Cup championship despite their puck luck and the temptation of the zig-zag model. From the often maligned “eye test”, I saw a Florida team that seemed already beaten. The Panthers had gotten their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics supported the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice the day before and was listed as questionable to play. Even if he did play, he would not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals had been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Vegas was not the only team that had been the beneficiary of “puck luck.” Florida’s success in winning close games obscured the fact that they had actually been outscored this postseason. Was this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve in Game Five with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team had been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. They were underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is perhaps the team’s best defensive forward (or second to Stone). Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy had the advantage of the last-line choice — so he could ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. It was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. Hill continued to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It had allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.These were the reasons why I endorsed the Golden Knights in Game Five as my NHL Game of the Year — and they responded with an overwhelming 9-3 victory to win the game and lift Lord Stanley’s Cup in front of their home fans. Tkachuk was not able to play and it was later revealed that he had suffered a broken sternum in the third game of the series. Vegas scored twice in the first period — and after Florida scored first in the second period, the Golden Knights responded with four unanswered goals in the second period to take a commanding 6-1 lead to cruise to the victory in the final 20 minutes. Models like the zig-zag theory can be helpful — especially if they are backed with strong empirical evidence from similar situations. Using analytics to identify overvalued and undervalued teams is important. But these are just two of the tools in the successful handicapper’s toolbox. The best handicapping occurs when one assesses a variety of arguments — and makes good decisions regarding what evidence to privilege. While there were many good reasons to back the Golden Knights in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals, the best evidence might have come from the eye test in the final moments of Game Four. Best of luck — Frank.

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2023 MLB End of June – Real or Fake: Miami Marlins

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

Miami has turned in a terrific month of June to sit with one of the better records in the National League as the All-Star break approaches. Can the Marlins stay in the mix as a NL wild card this season? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Miami Marlins, who were priced around +430 at the beginning of the season to make the playoffs.  Through June 29, the Marlins have an exactly even scoring differential, climbing out of what has been a negative number most of the season by going 19-7 and +45 in scoring in the month of June so far. Many expected a season of improvement for Miami but in a division with the 2021 World Series champions, the 2022 NL champions, and a Mets squad that spent a lot of money in the offseason, climbing the ladder to a playoff position in the NL East looked difficult.   The division picture has changed significantly however as while the Braves may be the best team in baseball, the Mets have been a huge disappointment and could be trade deadline sellers. Philadelphia has been competitive and is six games above .500 as a threat to make another late season run, but the Phillies don’t look quite as formidable as they did late last season.  Miami has undoubtedly had great fortune to earn this record as a 19-5 record in one-run results attests. Miami is also 4-1 in extra-inning games. The recent run of success in June has not been built on narrow wins, and the offense has improved its scoring in every month this season.  Miami’s record in the division is marginal going 11-12 vs. the NL East but they have seven games with the Braves already out of the way and will face Atlanta just three times in August and September. Miami’s record is also built on going 20-7 vs. the American League but that includes series wins over decent teams, going a combined 10-2 vs. Boston, Cleveland, Minnesota, and the LA Angels. The remaining schedule for Miami does grade as the fourth most difficult in the NL as they still must face the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, and Rangers in interleague play. The Marlins will also face the Dodgers six times, but they also still have 26 games remaining vs. the Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Tigers, and Mets.  While Luis Arraez chasing .400 is getting the headlines, Jorge Soler has been a top power hitter for the Marlins and Miami should receive a boost with the recent return of Jazz Chisolm, Jr. Miami has a low-strikeout lineup and the scoring numbers have been climbing upward in recent weeks even while still ranking in the bottom 10 of MLB for the season. The key for Miami staying relevant is an elite pitching staff as the Marlins are a top 10 team in MLB in opposing runs allowed, OPS allowed, and batting average allowed. Miami has allowed the second fewest home runs in MLB and is third in MLB with a 9.6 K/9 for the staff. Those numbers have come even while 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara has not matched last season’s success. Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett give the Marlins two high-ceiling left-handers while Eury Perez has also turned in very effective results. Edward Carbera is on the IL right now but could help the team late in the season. Bryan Hoeing has also looked like a useful option in the rotation as the depth on the staff looks excellent. The Miami bullpen has average season numbers but has been a key component to the success in close games and in the June surge.  Very few teams have the type of pitching that Miami has right now and while the Marlins are unlikely to be overly aggressive at the trade deadline, it seems unlikely that the Phillies will go all-in either, as the path to stay in wild card contention is there, even if catching the Braves in the division race will be a long shot.  Verdict on the 2023 Miami Marlins: Real Contender    

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2023 MLB End of June – Real or Fake: Arizona Diamondbacks

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Jun 30, 2023

Arizona is the surprise leader in the loaded NL West, can the Diamondbacks maintain that pace to reach the playoffs? Now with three months of the MLB season nearly complete, the results must be given more weight. Several teams have provided some recent momentum to emerge in the playoff standings, including the Arizona Diamondbacks, who were priced around +5000 at the beginning of the season to win the NL West.  Arizona’s Pythagorean record would put them at 44-38 instead of 48-34 but Arizona has put together three consecutive winning months. The scoring differential for Arizona is modest at just +34 through June 29, but Arizona is 0-3 in extra-inning games and just 11-12 in one-run results as they have not had great close game fortune to build the current record.  The schedule so far does bring some concern to the profile for Arizona, however with a 6-1 record against Colorado and a 5-1 record vs. Washington, faring exceptionally well against two of the worst teams in the National League. Arizona has also won 60 percent of its interleague games including going a combined 7-2 vs. Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. The Diamondbacks are just 11-10 vs. the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, a trio they still have 18 games remaining against.  Arizona may have some staying power thanks to its starting rotation; they have a true ace in Zac Gallen, while Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson have been effective enough this season. Kelly should return from the IL soon while Tommy Henry has offered promise as well. Zach Davies has pitched better than his numbers suggest and could provide acceptable returns the rest of the way if the Diamondbacks stick with him. Arizona will be a trade deadline candidate to consider upgrading the rotation as they will be a team to watch as the starting pitching market unfolds.  The Arizona offense has been the story however as quietly the Diamondbacks are the #5 scoring team in MLB while posting top six marks league-wide in batting average and OPS, while featuring the third lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, and Lourds Gurriel Jr., all own strikeout rates below 20 percent providing a great depth of batters that make pitchers work. Arizona is also third in MLB with 81 stolen bases while getting caught only 12 times, maximizing use of the new rules in 2023.  The challenge for Arizona comes from its division foes, however as the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants could all be buyers at the trade deadline. Los Angeles was not expected to match the 100-win level of the past few seasons, but the Dodgers still look like a contender that may make a few aggressive additions. The Giants have played extremely well in the past two months and look like a serious playoff threat. San Diego is running out of time to climb back into the race, but all the numbers suggest the Padres deserve a much better record than the current 37-44 mark as they are a threat to make a late run.  The Dodgers have the second weakest remaining schedule of all NL teams while San Francisco also has a favorable remaining path as Arizona’s days on top of the division are likely numbered. It will be a great season of improvement for Arizona, but the Diamondbacks don’t look like a team that can hold up as a playoff team in the difficult NL West despite the current strong position.   Verdict on the 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks: Fake Contender

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