- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB National League Central Game of the Month is with Milwaukee with the money line versus St. Louis at 7:40 pm et.
The Milwaukee Brewers are in must-win games for the rest of the season as they fight for the final wild-card spot in the National League. With an 82-72 record, they are 1 1/2 games behind Philadelphia for the third wild card position. They were on a four-game winning streak before losing at Cincinnati, 2-1, on Sunday before dropping the first game of their series with the Cardinals last n night, 6-2. Milwaukee has won twenty of their last thirty-two games when on a two-game losing streak. They have won ten of their last fourteen games after not scoring at least three runs in their last game, and they have won five of their last seven games after giving up at least five runs in their last game. If manager Craig Counsel’s team has an edge for the remainder of the regular season, it is that their remaining eight games are at home at American Family Field. The Brewers are 40-41 on the road this year, yet they own a 42-31 record when playing at home. Milwaukee has won nine of their last thirteen games at home when the oddsmakers install the over/under from 7 to 8.5. The Brewers have lost their last two games against the Cardinals, yet they have won five of their last seven games when playing with double-revenge against their opponent. The big edge Milwaukee has tonight is that it is Brandon Woodruff’s turn in the starting rotation. The right-hander comes off another strong effort where he allowed only one earned run and three hits in six innings of work at Cincinnati last Thursday. He struck out 11 Reds batters while inducing seventeen swinging strikes and a called strike or swinging strike rate of 35%. Woodruff has struck out at least ten batters in three straight games, and he has double-digit strikeouts in four of his last six starts. For the season, he has a 12-4 record with a 3.18 era, a 1.09 whip, and a strikeout rate of 30.1% of the batters he has faced. In his twelve starts since the all-star break, he has a 2.52 era and a 1.00 whip. He has pitched well in his two starts against St. Louis this year against which he has a 2.00 era and a 0.78 whip. In his eleven starts at home, Woodruff has a 2.16 era and a 0.84 whip. The Brewers have won ten of his eleven starts at home this year. They have won seven of their previous ten games when Woodruff is their starting pitcher tasked with ending a team losing streak.
St. Louis has little to play for as they prepare for a postseason run. The Cardinals are 7 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers for first place in the National League Central division, yet they are seven games behind Atlanta for the second seen in the NL playoffs. St. Louis appears destined to be the third seed in the National League postseason, meaning they will host a three-game wildcard series against the sixth seed. The Cardinals are averaging only 3.6 runs per game this year with a .213 batting average, a .272 on-base percentage, and a .387 slugging percentage. St. Louis finishes an eight-game road trip tonight, so they may be looking ahead to their return home with little at stake. The Cardinals have won only ten of their last thirty-two games on the road against winning teams. They have won once in their last five games on the road when the oddsmakers install the over/under at 7 or lower. They have pulled off upsets just eight times in their last twenty-eight games when the oddsmakers install them as a money line underdog priced from +125 to +175, and they have won four times in their last seventeen games when they are playing on the road as a +125 to +175 priced dog. Jose Quintana gets the start for the Cards tonight. He has a 6-6 record this year with a 3.03 era and a 1.22 whip, and in his ten starts since being traded to St. Louis, he has a 3-1 record with a 2.14 era and a 1.13 whip. The left-hander fits the mold of groundball pitchers that the organization likes to cultivate as his groundball rate of 46.7% is his highest in seven years. Yet his strikeouts are down as he is only punching out 20.0% of the batters he has faced, the lowest rate in his last nine seasons. Arm fatigue could play a role with him tonight as he threw 101 pitches in his last outing which was only the fourth time this season that he threw 100 or more pitches in a game. Quintana had not pitched more than six innings in two of his first twenty-eight starts this year for Pittsburgh and now St. Louis. Yet in his last two starts, he has pitched 6 2/3 and then eight innings. The 33-year-old has thrown more innings this year than in the last two seasons combined. On the road this season, he has a 4.13 era and a 1.42 whip in thirteen starts. His teams have won five times in his last sixteen starts when he takes the mound in a road game. Play Milwaukee with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
