Nelly’s NL East Division Delivery 6-2 Sides
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
- Time
- 08/10/2022 07:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Phillies -120
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Sandy Alcantara is the heavy favorite to win the NL Cy Young but he has been a bit erratic in the past six weeks with a few marginal outings as his number continue to rise. He is coming off a shutout in his last start but that was against a struggling and depleted Reds team at home. Alcantara has had a great contrast in his home and road splits this season and throughout his career and he had just three strikeouts in that complete game. Alcantara has only a 26.2 percent CSW% in the past month and his season xFIP is 3.35 next to his 1.88 ERA. Philadelphia has a pair of wins in Alcantara starts this season as he has allowed at least two runs in each start vs. the Phillies. Philadelphia is a top five scoring team this season and the Phillies have been one of the top offensive teams in MLB of late, batting .282 with 6.3 runs per nine in the past 10 games and posting an incredible .877 team OPS in the past two weeks. In contrast Miami has a .599 team OPS in that span and over the past 10 games has hit .193 with 1.8 runs per nine. That contrast more than makes up for the edge Alcantara might have on the mound despite the Phillies being nearly even on the moneyline. Noah Syndergaard has not come close to matching his early career success, but he has allowed three or fewer runs in 12 of 16 starts this season including four of his last five. His season CSW% of 27.6 percent is surprisingly better than Alcantara’s CSW% of 27.1 percent. The scoring differential gap between these teams is 114 runs and Miami is 20-35 vs. winning teams this season as the Phillies are catching a favorable price vs. Alcantara’s fortunate numbers.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
