Nelly’s AL Central Total of the Month
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins
- Time
- 05/23/2022 07:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins Over 8.5 (+100)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Rookie Beau Brieske was a 27th round pick in 2019 as the 24-year-old has leaped to the MLB level on necessity and not production with all the injuries for the Tigers. Brieske had made only two AAA starts in his career and neither was overly successful. In five starts at the MLB level he owns just a 5.1 K/9 and he has allowed seven home runs in just over 26 innings of work. Brieske has a 5.13 ERA even with an incredibly fortunate .210 BABIP and he now must face a hot Twins offense that has scored 36 runs in the past four games. Target Field has lower scoring numbers this season but the weather in Minneapolis in April and early May was seasonably cold and the production in Twins homes games should climb in the coming weeks, particularly with the Twins getting many key players back in the lineup after early season injury challenges. The Twins took a chance on Chris Archer in free agency despite some of the worst results in MLB the past few seasons from the former Rays pitcher that had early career success from 2012-2015. Coming off injury Archer has been limited and has topped four innings just once in seven starts this season. He has a 4.8 BB/9 and has had some good fortune with a .236 BABIP and an 84 percent strand rate. Archer has a FIP nearly two runs higher than his 4.10 ERA and while Minnesota has had good season results in the bullpen, the numbers have taken a turn for the worse of late. Minnesota had a 4.68 bullpen ERA In the past 10 games and usage was heavy over the weekend in a wild series sweep in Kansas City. Detroit has struggled on offense this season, but they are coming off facing top pitching teams in the past two road series. The ‘over’ hit in two of three meetings earlier this season in Minnesota and this is a pairing of two of the worst CSW% pitchers in the American League with Brieske at just 20 percent and Archer at 23.6 percent. With a great ‘under’ start to the season for the Tigers the total has to be kept below 9.0 even with a red-hot Twins offense facing a minor league caliber starter and a struggling bullpen, while Archer is 21 games below .500 in his career.
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