OSKEIM'S HUGE NCAA BASKETBALL HIGH ROLLER
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Bryant vs Merrimack
- Time
- 01/21/2022 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Merrimack +3.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Merrimack is in year three of the Division I reclassification period and head coach Joe Gallo's roster rivals the one he had in 2019-20 when the Warriors won the Northeast Conference's regular-season championship, defeating Northwestern along the way. Merrimack returns all five starters from last year's squad and leadership is provided by senior Mikey Watkins and juniors Jordan Minor and Ziggy Reid. Minor is averaging a team-high 14.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game (8th in the NEC), while Watkins is second on the team in scoring with 9.6 points per game. Reid is contributing 9.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, while the Warriors' frontcourt is anchored by super senior Devin Jensen.
All four players have been with the program from the outset and are proven commodities that Gallo trusts. Merrimack possesses a suffocating defense that is allowing just 62.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 68.0 points per game against a mediocre defense. Even more impressive is the fact that the Warriors are limiting opponents to 61.1 points per game at home this season.
Merrimack's offense is once again near the bottom of the conference in offensive efficiency and possessions per game, but the Warriors should improve those rankings against a Bryant defense that has been 5.6 points per game worse than average in 2021-22. The Bulldogs are just 3-7 SU and 3-6 ATS on the road this season where they are allowing 80.8 points per game.
I was initially concerned with Bryant's height advantage in this matchup but the Bulldogs are a money-burning 5-18 ATS since 1997 versus teams that are averaging 33 or fewer rebounds per game. Over the same time period, Bryant is 9-22 ATS in conference road affairs, 5-15 ATS following a double-digit win and 7-18 ATS after covering the spread in two of its previous three games. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games off a win by 20 or more points, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games versus .499 or worse opposition and 5-11-1 ATS in their previous seventeen games overall.
Finally, since 2018, Merrimack is a profitable 8-1 ATS in home contests following a game in which the combined score was 115 points or fewer. My math model only favors Bryant by 2.36 points in this game and the technical analysis strongly favors the home underdog. Grab the points with Merrimack and invest with confidence.
