UFC MAIN EVENT AND 10 FIGHTS DANGEROUS DAN...
- Handicapper
- Wayne Root
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori
- Time
- 10/23/2021 06:35 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Under 4.5 (-145)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Main Event Costa vs. Vettorri
My initial impression was to make Costa a slight favorite and he opened at -150. Within hours the line flipped and Vettori became a -150 favorite. Then Costa announced he weighed 211 a few days before the fight and wanted a catchweight of 195. Then the UFC announced the fight will take place at 205! Costa has never been five rounds and his last 3 round fight he gassed badly against Yoel Romero barleyLacerda winning a decision. Take the under 4 ½ in this fight. I layed -130 but the line is getting juiced. No worries as I see Vettori’s wrestling tiring out Costa with Vettorieither getting the win by club and sub or rear naked choke.
The bet is under 4 ½
DANIEL LACERDA is 11-1 with all 12 of his fights inside the distance with 5 KO wins, 6 sub wins and one loss by KO. JEFF MOLINA 9-2 with 7 of his wins inside the distance with 3 KO’s and 4 Subs. He has gone to decision 3 times with one of his losses by submission. This fight screams violence. Lacerda is making his UFC debut. Since most of his wins are in the 1stround I expect him to come out of the gate blazing and put pressure on Molina. Molina has a great coach in James Krause in his corner. Molina is a -160 favorite. If Molina can make it out of the 1st round then you can get better odds on him by live betting. I bet inside the distance at +120 and now it is even money. Most books have the line at 2 ½ ov -140 with the over favored.
The play is inside the distance or does not go to decision NOW at even money.
FYI: These are my wagers so far: Note: I like to play prop bets with favorites on sketchy fight cards as I can get plus money and manage losses better if the favorite shits the bed. The last 2 fight cards I am up over 13 units. The trend is your friend and I have been really dialed in lately.
Method of Victory - Laureano Staropoli by Points +100
Jeff Molina vs Daniel Lacerda - Goes the Distance - No +120
Method of Victory- Jai Herbert by KO/TKO or DQ +115
Method of Victory - Grant Dawson by Points +115
Method of Victory -Livinha Souza by Points +200
Method of Victory - Seung Woo Choi by Points +105
Method of Victory - Jessica-Rose Clark by Points +125
Francisco Trinaldo/Dwight Grant over 2½ -155
Francisco Trinaldo -132
Marvin Vettori/Paulo Costa under 4½ -130
3 Fight Parlay-Tabatha Ricci -230 Jessica-Rose Clark -145 Grant Dawson -365
BELLATOR Method of Victory - Tim Johnson by KO/TKO or DQ +125
