TOM'S NCAA 2-TEAM MAC PARLAY OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Eastern Michigan vs Bowling Green
- Time
- 10/23/2021 12:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Eastern Michigan -3 (-110)
(Caesars)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #361 EASTERN MICHIGAN (-) over Bowling Green at 12 PM EST
In a bad mood off that seven-point home loss to Ball State and with a trip to mighty Toledo on deck, Eastern Michigan will make sure it pays attention at Bowling Green on Saturday. The Eagles hold a respectable 4-3 SU mark through seven games and head coach Chris Creighton knows his kids chances of playing in a bowl game this season improve greatly provided they can pick up the dub here. Let’s take a look inside the numbers.
Even though EMU owns a soft 3-9 SU mark in the last 12 meetings against BGSU, the Eagles have quietly won the last two battles in 2016 and 2017 by final scores of 28-25 and 34-31. In addition, Eastern Michigan has been a real road warrior lately posting a proud 26-12-1 ATS tally in its last 39 tries including a jaw-dropping 15-1 ATS in this spot provided the Eagles take the field without confidence off a straight up loss. In this role priced as an underdog or a favorite of -21 or less, EMU explodes to a golden 15-0 ATS. Also, when coming off a pointspread loss, Coach Creighton’s kids have been an ATM machine inking a rewarding 18-5 ATS mark in their last 23 in this setting including 17-3 ATS if they are priced as a pup or a piece of chalk of -13 or less.
There is a strong MAC situation that works against Bowling Green here too. According to our college football database, MAC hosts that own a team won/loss percentage less than .500 hold a dismal 74-127-3 ATS mark provided both participants take the field off straight up losses and our home team was on the road in their last game. If our “play against” host is lined up against an opponent that is not rested, this situation crashes to a miserable 62-116-3 ATS including a horrible 31-63-3 ATS if they are priced as an underdog or a favorite of -2.5 or less. The Falcons apply to all three parts of that negative wagering MAC situation.
Ranked No. 1 in the nation in fewest penalty yards per game (33.0), the Eagles are a disciplined team that won’t beat themselves. With bowl implications possibly riding and off that rough home loss to BSU, EMU will crank its game up a notch and pick up a huge road win and cover. Take Eastern Michigan.
