25* MLB NATIONAL LEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Time
- 07/30/2021 07:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Over 9 (-107)
(5D Reduced Juice)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (51-51) begins this series coming off an 11-8 victory against Washington yesterday. Pittsburgh (38-63) has lost four games in a row after a 12-0 loss to Milwaukee yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phillies have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. Philadelphia has played 6 straight Overs in the opening game of a new series. They send out Velasquez who is 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP in 16 starts (20 games). The right-hander particularly struggles on the road where he has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. The Phillies have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total with Velasquez pitching with the Total set in the 9-9.5 range. Philadelphia has also played 5 straight road games Over the Total when favored. Velasquez faces a Pirates team that has played 7 straight Overs against right-handed starting pitchers. The Over is also 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games against starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The Over is also 18-7-2 in the Pirates’ last 27 games after a loss. Furthermore, the Over is 5-0-1 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 games after scoring no more than two runs in their last game — and the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Pirates’ last 5 games at home. They counter with Crowe who is 2-5 with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 14 starts (15 games). The right-hander sees his WHIP rise to a 1.66 mark in his seven starts at home due in part to an opponent’s batting average of .281. His teams have played 7 straight Overs when Crowe is making a starting in the second half of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is hitting better as of late — they have a .259 Batting Average with a .337 On-Base Percentage, and an OPS of .810 in their last seven games. The Phillies have played 7 of their last 8 games on the road Over the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. 25* MLB National League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies (901) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (902) listing both starting pitchers Vince Velasquez and Will Crowe. Best of luck for us — Frank.
