TDG’s NCAA-B SWEET SIXTEEN GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Alabama vs North Carolina
- Time
- 03/28/2024 09:54 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
North Carolina -4 (-110)
(Consensus 3)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year is on North Carolina minus the points versus Alabama at 9:40 pm et.
The Alabama Crimson Tide found themselves trailing by a 58-55 score to Grand Canyon with just over six minutes left in the game on Sunday before they went on a 17-3 run to take a 72-61 victory and advance to the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA tournament. Unfortunately, we were on the Antelopes in that game, yet their inability to execute in the half-court did them in those final six minutes. Grand Canyon was a disappointment at the free-throw line as well. They missed 14 of their 36 shots at the stripe to ruin the point spread cover and keep the game competitive late. That 62.2% shooting percentage at the line was far below their 76.3% mark in conference play. Perhaps nerves played a role in their Cinderella bid. The Crimson Tide now plays a team that will not have demonstrated that anxiety. The Tar Heels are the sixth-oldest team in the country with a core group of players that played in the national championship game two years ago. North Carolina is a bad matchup for an Alabama team that has some glaring weaknesses. The Crimson Tide ranks 101st in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 90.4 points per game in their last five games while getting outscored in those games. The 89.6 points per game they allow away from home is 8.7 more points per game than their season average. They foul too much as they rank 327th in putting their opponent on the foul line. The Tar Heels make 75.6% of the free throws. Alabama struggles against physical teams as demonstrated by their two most recent losses to Florida this month where the Gators scored 105 and 102 points in regulation. North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis will study the game tape from those games, and his team is happy to play at a fast pace. The Tar Heels average 62 shots per game, and the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in three of their last thirteen games against opponents who average 62 or more shot attempts per game. North Carolina averages 40.8 rebounds per game, and Alabama has covered the point spread once in their last eight games after fifteen games into the season against teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.
North Carolina bullied a Michigan State team that is more comfortable playing physically than the Crimson Tide in an 85-69 victory as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in nine of their last thirteen games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They are a balanced team that ranks 17th in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency. Perhaps they were overseeded as one seed, yet that should not discount their value in this game (the committee had to choose some team to fill that fourth spot amongst of handful of teams with similar resumes). They match up nicely against this Alabama team coached by Nate Oats who wants to attempt either 3-point shots or shots at the basket. North Carolina ranks fourth in points per possession allowed at the rim or behind the 3-point line. They lead the nation with the fewest fast break points allowed per game. Alabama allows 34 points per game in the paint, they give up 25 free throw attempts per game, and they allow 13-second chance points per game. All three of those marks are in the bottom 80 in the country. The Tar Heels average 12 second chance points per game and 23 free throw attempts per game. The Crimson Tide have a 9.8 net point differential on the season yet North Carolina has covered the point spread in fifteen of their last twenty-three games against teams with a +4 or better net point differential. Play North Carolina minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
