Nelly’s Sweet 16 First Tip Winner 70% NCAAs
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Clemson vs Arizona
- Time
- 03/28/2024 07:09 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Clemson +7.5 (-110)
(Consensus 3)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Arizona has just six wins vs. teams currently graded as top 25 teams and only one of those has come since early January. Arizona’s profile is built on a great 8-0 start to the season that included wins over Duke, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, while the Wildcats also beat Alabama in non-conference play as well. In Pac-12 play the Wildcats were less impressive, going 15-5 in a league that lacked standout teams and going just 5-3 in the final eight games. Arizona didn’t land a #1 seed but got a favorable draw in the West region, playing in Salt Lake City and catching a favorable draw in the first two games. Saturday’s win against Dayton wasn’t a blowout even with Arizona shooting exceptionally well as the Wildcats had 15 turnovers and were defeated on the offensive glass. Clemson did not enter the NCAA Tournament with momentum, taking a few surprising late season losses and quickly exiting the ACC Tournament. The 2-0 start for Brad Brownell’s second Sweet 16 appearance was impressive, however. The Tigers stalled an up-tempo New Mexico offense to just 56 points in a game that was over quickly. Clemson led the whole way vs. Baylor and survived a few tense moments late for an eight-point win. Clemson had great defensive rebounding numbers in that game and held Baylor to 25 percent on 3-point shots. The Tigers beat Alabama in non-conference play in addition to posting four other top 55 wins in early season action. This Los Angeles venue will favor Arizona geographically, but this is a healthy underdog price for a Clemson team that currently ranks in the nation’s top 40 on both offense and defense. Clemson takes good care of the ball and is an excellent free throw shooting team, which was a key advantage in the win over Baylor. Clemson went 5-1 vs. the three fastest tempo teams in the ACC this season including a win at North Carolina with the only loss a close low-scoring game against the Tar Heels as the Tigers have been able to control the pace against up-tempo teams. Arizona went just 10-7 S/U away from home before adding two wins last week as much of the profile for the Wildcats has been built on occasional dominant results while going 15-1 S/U in Tucson. Clemson is quietly 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season with the only miss by one point in a regular season finale that meant much more to Wake Forest. Five Clemson losses have come by one possession final scores this season. Arizona lost by double-digits in the Sweet 16 two seasons ago and is 1-4-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament under Tommy Lloyd, only narrowly covering against Dayton last weekend.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
