Nelly’s Thursday Sweet 16 Knockout 70% NCAAs
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Alabama vs North Carolina
- Time
- 03/28/2024 09:54 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Alabama +4.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- North Carolina’s win over Michigan State in the Round of 32 featured an incredibly misleading final score. The Tar Heels trailed by double-digits early in the game but had a 26-3 run to take a commanding lead. Michigan State climbed back in the game in the second half making it a one-possession game before the Tar Heels went on a 14-2 run late to pull away again. The Tar Heels had a win probability of below 28 percent at one point in the game and posted a significant edge at the free throw line. Michigan State had a rebounding edge and shot effectively enough but the Tar Heels had only five turnovers and made 10 3-point shots, both figures well off the team’s season averages. Alabama’s scoring ability will likely keep those types of runs in check and while the Tide haven’t been as complete as the 2021 or 2023 teams that made the Sweet 16 for Nate Oats, this is the best offensive team he has had since taking over 2020-21. Being tested in the first two games of the tournament should be beneficial for the Tide after being able to escape a difficult venue draw in Spokane with a pair of wins over Charleston and Grand Canyon while North Carolina had the benefit of playing close to home but now faces a cross country trip. These teams played early last season with a 103-101 overtime win for Alabama with the Tide a two-point favorite in that game. Alabama doesn’t have a strong record as an underdog this season but there have only been a handful of opportunities and most of those losses were in true road games while this will be a neutral site in Los Angeles. The ACC has performed better than the SEC so far this postseason but that is often an overstated analysis that doesn’t hold much weight towards any future matchup. North Carolina split facing Tennessee and Kentucky in non-conference play and the Tar Heels don’t have a lot of experience winning close games this season. North Carolina also went just 2-3 S/U in neutral site games in non-conference play early in the season. North Carolina is not effective forcing turnovers and Alabama’s ability to spread the court with numerous 3-point shooting options can pose problems for Armando Bacot’s typical interior dominance on the boards. The Tar Heels will be the smaller lineup overall in this pairing and this is a significant underdog price for a Sweet 16 pairing between two proven major conference squads with high ceilings.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
