Nelly’s 2024 MLB Opening Day AL Opportunity
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals
- Time
- 03/28/2024 04:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Kansas City Royals +110
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Twins went 9-4 vs. the Royals last season and while Minnesota remains the favorite in the AL Central this season, there is reason to believe that Kansas City has a good opportunity to steal the opening series. Minnesota was only an 87-win team last season and will have a hard time replacing a great deal of quality innings in the rotation this season. Minnesota’s off-season was mostly quiet with a plan to build an elite bullpen, similar to the unit that led the Royals to a championship back in 2015. A snag in those plans has been injuries with Justin Topa, Caleb Thielbar, and Jhoan Duran starting the season in the IL. Pablo Lopez had a strong 2023 season for the Twins but he only picked up 11 wins and he struggled in his 14 spring training innings as he follows a career high in innings last season. Lopez was at his best in the second half of the season last year and had marginal numbers through June as a great start to the season shouldn’t be assumed. Lopez did make a scoreless March start in Kansas City last season in his Minnesota debut, but he only produced 16 outs. The Royals won just 56 games last season but did go 15-12 from September 1 onward and have a solid nucleus to work with. Minnesota finished only four games above .500 vs. left-handed starters last season and 2016 1st rounder Cole Ragans had a breakthrough season in 2023. A reliever for the eventual World Series champion Rangers, Ragans blossomed after being moved into the Kansas City rotation for the final two months of the season. With Kansas City he posted a 2.64 ERA with a 2.49 FIP, delivering an 11.2 K/9. Ragans has a career 2.31 ERA at Kauffman Stadium and he has good numbers in limited innings vs. the Twins in his young career. With a depleted bullpen the Twins aren’t likely to show early season improvement on a 19-27 record in one-run games from last season while the Twins had a losing road record in 2023 as well. Kansas City looks like a team that can show improvement in 2024 and close the gap between these teams with Ragans offering significant upside on opening day.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
