- Analysis
- Gold Standard on Clemson
Aside from NC State (+14.34), Clemson (+19.06) is the worst team remaining in the big dance, according to KenPom adjusted efficiency margin. Arizona is the fourth-best remaining team (+27.16), and they’re fifth overall in the country. Essentially, this spread falls right in range with the KenPom adjusted margin. On that note, I’m going to ride with Clemson plus the points. Individually, PJ Hall has been a force down low this year, leading the team in scoring (18.5 PPG), steals (0.8 SPG), and blocks (1.5 BPG). Ian Schieffelin joins him down low, adding 9.8 points per game while securing a team-leading 9.5 rebounds per night for Clemson. Arizona can still win this game comfortably, but I think there’s a great chance that Clemson keeps it within two possessions. I was very impressed with their win over Baylor, who came out of a tough Big 12 conference. Meanwhile, Arizona has yet to be challenged in this tournament, and they really haven’t faced much top-tier talent over the last several months. Arizona took care of #15 Long Beach State but scored (85) points in the opener, and put on an encore with a victory over #7 Dayton but scored just (78) points on Saturday. I mean, they played in a very weak PAC-12, so they didn’t run into many solid teams during conference play. I’ll fade the unproven Tommy Llyod and his undisciplined team that averages 12.0 turnovers per game (203rd). Clemson should be able to limit their scoring and get the point spread cover.
