- Analysis
- Root Reserve on North Carolina
Alabama’s path to the Sweet 16 wasn’t the most difficult as they have faced two teams from lesser level conferences including the College of Charleston and Grand Canyon. Though GCU is a stronger squad, who is building a quality program out West, they are still much lower than the power conference competition. UNC, however, had to pass through the Michigan State Spartans who possesses the Nation’s 11th ranked defense. UNC demonstrated their prowess in that game with a 16 point defeat and weren’t ever really in peril in the affair. Alabama’s defense was able to slow and frustrate GCU in round 2 but won’t have that same ability against the Tarheels. It can be expected that the Tide will return to their run-and-gun selves, at the detriment of their defense, in an attempt to keep pace with UNC. However, the Tarheels defense is notoriously strong as it is ranked 6th in the nation on KenPom, giving up just 70 points per game, and keeping their opponents to a 31.7% success rate from distance which is impressive as the ACC is packed full of sharpshooters. This strength will allow North Carolina to pull away from the Tide at a steady pace. The key match in this game will be the interior strength of the Tarheels, with forwards Armando Bacot and Stanford transfer, Harrison Ingram, pitting against Alabama’s Grant Nelson and Nick Pringle. This edge goes to UNC and is the defining factor in this game. Furthermore, both squads are great from the free throw line, which is important in a tight game, but Alabama is sending their opponents to the stripe for a 351st ranked 25.3 attempts per game which the Tarheels will be able to expose. In contrast, the Tarheels are allowing just 17.3 free throw attempts. UNC has the edge here. Lay the small chalk. Tarheels -3.5
