OSKEIM'S NCAA TOURNEY OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY
- Handicapper
- Oskeim Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Clemson vs Arizona
- Time
- 03/28/2024 07:09 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Clemson +7.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Clemson entered the NCAA Tournament as one of the most undervalued teams in the field as the Tigers were 6-1 ATS as underdogs during the season and are 6-0-1 ATS versus opponents coming off a win in the tournament. In the past three NCAA Tournaments, the ACC is 29-11 ATS (71%), the best record of any conference. In this year’s tournament, the ACC is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, the best of any conference. ACC schools are on a profitable 20-5 SU and 16-9 ATS (64%) NCAA Tournament run against Pac-12 opponents.
The Pac-12 is 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) over the last two NCAA Tournaments and 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) in the Sweet 16 since 2001, including 2-9 ATS as favorites of greater than four points. Arizona has dropped four straight against-the-spread in the Sweet 16 and has reached the Final Four just three of the 15 times it has been a top-2 seed. Since 2018, the Sweet 16 has been the most profitable round for underdogs (24-16 ATS), while underdogs are a combined 35-24-1 ATS (59.3) in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 over that span.
Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 223-137-3 ATS (61.9%) versus opponents shooting less than 75% from the charity stripe, including 128-77 ATS (62.4%) since 2017. Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams coming off a tournament game in which they shot 50% or better from the field are 65-91-5 ATS (41.7%) versus opponents entering off a game in which they shot worse than 50% from the field, including 19-35-1 ATS (35.2%) since 2020.
High-tempo teams have historically struggled against slower-paced teams in the NCAA Tournament. Since 2004, teams with an estimated pace of less than 70 are 133-104-5 ATS (56.1%) versus teams with an estimated pace of greater than 70 in the NCAA Tournament, including 73-47-1 ATS (60.8%) since 2018 and 38-23-1 ATS (62.3%) since 2021.
Since 2004, NCAA Tournament teams that averaged more free throw attempts during the regular season are just 116-162-7 ATS (41.7%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -1.3 points per game. Finally, the point spread (+7.5) is significant in this game as 12 of Clemson’s 13 all-time NCAA tournament losses have come by eight or fewer points. Grab the points with the Tigers and invest with confidence.
