Sean Murphy - San Diego State vs Connecticut

Sean's 76-59 10* NCAA SWEET 16 GAME OF YEAR!

Handicapper
Sean Murphy
League
NCAAB
Competition
San Diego State vs Connecticut
Time
03/28/2024 07:39 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Connecticut -10.5 (-120) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*).

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