ASA Sweet 16 Top Total Rout! Tests 100% RUN!
- Handicapper
- ASA, Inc.
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Illinois vs Iowa State
- Time
- 03/28/2024 10:14 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Illinois vs Iowa State Over 145.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #631/632 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 145.5 Points – Illinois vs Iowa State, Thursday at 10:10 PM ET - Illinois just continues to put big points on the board no matter who they play. After scoring 85 in the round of 32 vs Duquesne (slow paced team with top 30 defense) the Illini have now put up at least 80 points in 16 of their last 20 games. We realize ISU has a high level defense (24th nationally in FG% allowed) but we like Illinois to still be successful offensively. Against the best defensive teams in the Big 10 the Illini offense was still high level scoring 80 on Michigan State (11th nationally in defensive efficiency), 86 on Rutgers (4th in defensive efficiency), and 85 on Maryland (12th in defensive efficiency). Illinois ranks #1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.26 PPP) and we have our doubts that ISU can slow them down. This is going to be a game that the Cyclones have to put points on the board to keep up. We think they will. As much is made about their defensive prowess, let’s remember Iowa State averages 75 PPG and they are top 50 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency. They will do well on that end of the court vs an Illinois defense that simply isn’t very good. They rank 92nd nationally in defensive efficiency (2nd worst defense remaining) and since mid February this defense is rated just 188th in efficiency. We were on ISU vs Washington State Under in the round of 32 which was a winner but that was a Wazzou team that plays great defense and slows the pace. Illinois likes to play fast and Iowa State is much faster paced this season (206th) than last season (328th) so they are not necessarily a “slow” team anymore. Both offenses will have success here and we’ll take the Over on Thursday night.
