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Betting NFL Futures for the 2025 Super Bowl

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

NFL FUTURES RUNDOWN  Want to wager on your team to win the Super Bowl? To make the playoffs? To finish with a certain number of victories? You can do all that—and much more—with NFL futures. NFL futures betting allows sports bettors to wager on long-term outcomes of the NFL season before and during the course of the season. This popular method of betting on sports typically includes predictions on team performances, potential division champions, conference winners, the Super Bowl champions and other popular futures markets. BETTING NFL FUTURES When it comes to betting NFL futures, future bets offer an exciting opportunity to predict outcomes well in advance. Oddsmakers set NFL futures odds early in the summer and give constant updates thru preseason, and these odds change throughout the regular season based on team performances.  Currently, these are the top four listed to win the 2025 Superbowl:Kansas City +650San Francisco +650Baltimore +1100Detroit + 1300Every team has a price. And team prices vary depending on where you bet.  2023 conference champions have strangleholds on their respective divisions: The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers hold commanding positions over their divisions, with oddsmakers projecting more than a 70% implied probability for each to be crowned division champs in 2024. MONEY BEING TIED UP Money is tied up for a long time – When you make a futures bet you commit your money until the bet is resolved – often weeks or months. If that money were in your bankroll you could bet it several times over, and as long as you are a long term winning bettor you would have an expectation to produce profit with those bets. Since the money is tied up, though, it is exposed to risk while not earning any return. That means that there is an opportunity cost involved in future bets – you need to consider not just the return on the bet you are making, but also the lost potential return from the bets you could make if you weren’t invested in the futures bet. This opportunity cost means that you need to have an even higher payoff on your futures bet to make it worthwhile. LOCK IN LINE PRICES One of the most engaging aspects of NFL futures is the opportunity to secure potentially high payouts. The odds are set well in advance of the season’s start and as variables change — such as player injuries, trades and winning streaks — so too do the odds. This dynamic nature keeps bettors invested throughout the season, providing ongoing engagement with each shift in the competitive landscape. ARE FUTURE BETS WISE? Future bets – a bet on whether a team is going to win a league or event that is usually going to be held well in the future – are something that books absolutely love to post and take action on. There’s a pretty simple reason for that – they are mostly horrible bets, so the books make a killing on them. They are exposed to some risk if a longshot comes through at a huge price, but that doesn’t often happen. Most of the time they get to collect a large amount of money, use it as they want for months until the outcome of the bet is determined, and then pay out far less than they brought in. It really couldn’t be better for them. NFL SUPER BOWL FUTURE ODDS NFL Super Bowl futures odds are a cornerstone of sports betting, allowing bettors to place wagers on which team they believe will win the most highly-anticipated sporting event in the United States, the Super Bowl. Futures betting odds are available year-round from top betting sites and fluctuate based on team performances, player injuries, trades and public betting trends. Super Bowl futures odds offer a unique opportunity for bettors to lock in prices on a team’s chance to win the championship well before the event occurs. This common futures bet type requires not just a passion for football but a strategic approach to understanding the dynamics of the NFL. WHAT INFLUENCES FUTURE ODDS Team Performance: Regular season and playoff performances give a clear indication of a team’s potential to compete for the championship. Player Impact: The health and performance of key players can significantly alter a team’s odds. For instance, the injury or return of a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes might lead to dramatic changes in odds. Off-season Moves: Trades and free agency acquisitions can boost a team’s odds if they are perceived to strengthen the roster. The acquisition of a high-impact player such as Aaron Rodgers by the Denver Broncos serves as a prime example.  Historical Trends: Some teams, like the New England Patriots, have a track record of performing well under pressure and in playoff scenarios, which can sway the odds in their favor. STAY INFORMED  Bettors need to stay informed about NFL developments throughout the season and the offseason to make the most of Super Bowl futures. This form of betting is not only about predicting the winner but also about knowing when to place a bet based on value odds. WHEN TO MAKE FUTURES BET Most bettors place NFL futures wagers before the start of the regular season, but that’s certainly not required. In fact, most futures markets remain open at NFL betting sites throughout the entire season, with sportsbooks constantly adjusting odds based on player and/or team performances, significant injuries, trades and betting liability. THINK LIKE A SHARP To kickstart your thinking for the season – I’ve talked to a few guys who like to study futures odds as a way to start their preparations for the upcoming season. The odds give them a basic indication of what oddsmakers think of the coming season, and by doing their own research they can find the situations where they agree with the oddsmakers, and those where they differ significantly. The areas where they differ need to be researched more, but they could represent a nice value. Casual bettors often are drawn to Super Bowl futures so they can bet on their favorite team and turn a tidy profit if that team caps a magical season with a championship. BETTING LIKE A SHARP Sharp bettors get involved in the Super Bowl futures market for one reason: value. If they believe strongly that oddsmakers are selling particular teams short, savvy bettors will pounce on them. For much of the 2023-24 season, the San Francisco 49ers were favored to win the Super Bowl, especially when the Kansas City Chiefs slumped during the second half of the season. Bettors who jumped on them late in the year got better odds than you would have gotten earlier in the season. SEASON WIN TOTALS Season win totals are a popular type of NFL futures betting where bettors predict the total number of wins a team will secure during their regular season games. Sportsbooks set an over/under on wins for each team and bettors can wager whether a team will win more (over) or fewer (under) games than the listed total. This form of betting requires a deep understanding of each team’s strengths, weaknesses and potential for the upcoming season. Factors such as the difficulty of the team’s schedule, off-season roster changes, injuries and historical performance play critical roles in influencing these decisions. ANALYSIS OF LAST YEAR For bettors, analyzing team performance trends from previous seasons can be invaluable. Consideration of a team’s draft picks and any changes in coaching staff can also provide insights into potential improvements or declines in team performance.  Trends of note: The last 11 Super Bowl winners have won at least 11 regular season games, including the defending champion Chiefs, who went 11-6 in 2023. Think Kansas City can win its third straight Super Bowl in 2025? History suggests it’s unlikely, as no NFL team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls. It’s also probably unwise to make a Super Bowl futures bet on a team that wasn’t very good last season. Since the 2009 campaign, only the Philadelphia Eagles (2017) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2020) hoisted the Lombardi Trophy after winning fewer than 10 games the previous season (both went 7-9). KEEP IT INTERESTING  There’s nothing wrong with putting a few bucks down to give yourself a rooting interest for the season, or to back your favorite boyhood squad. If you are doing this with a significant portion of your bankroll then you might be an idiot, but if the amounts are small then fun is as good a reason as any. REMEMBER THIS ABOUT BETTING FUTURES The risk is massive and almost impossible to calculate – Let’s say you are going to bet on NFL futures right now. You need to factor in several things that you can’t really know about with any certainty – who is going to start in any open positions, how are the rookies and the free agents going to fit in, how are any new coaches going to work out, how are the teams your team is playing looking, who is going to get hurt on your team and for how long, and on and on and on and on. Any amount of uncertainty increases the risk on a bet, and therefore increases the amount of return you require to compensate for that risk. Because of the complexity of risk assessment it is incredibly easy to overestimate your edge in futures bets.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 4 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves on TNT and truTV at 8:35 p.m. ET. The Mavericks took a 3-0 series lead with their 116-107 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. They have won five straight games. The Timberwolves have lost six of their last eight games. Dallas is a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 210.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Florida Panthers play at home against the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Rangers took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 5-4 win in overtime on Sunday. They have won three of their last four games. The Panthers have lost three of five games. Florida is a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to New York to play the Mets in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Detroit Tigers host the Pittsburgh Pirates as a money-line favorite at -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Oakland A's at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Dodgers battle the Mets in the second game of their doubleheader at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at 7:20 p.m. ET. as a -250 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals play in Minnesota against the Twins as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -205 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians play in Colorado against the Rockies as a -148 money-line road favorite with an o/unde of 10.5. The New York Yankees are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games start at 9:40 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Miami Marlins as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.  

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5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Experience Positive Regression

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, May 27, 2024

I recently looked at five starting pitchers who should experience negative regression. Let’s take a look at a few who should experience positive regression. Keep in mind that positive regression doesn’t mean a player is improving, it just means that a player is moving back to its previously expected value (mean). With advanced statistics we can get a pretty good picture of guys who could experience this. Here are five to keep an eye on. These are not in any particular order. Patrick Sandoval (5.60 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.02 SIERA) Sandoval has a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He is elite at missing bats. Opponents have an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .348. He has left only 62.3% of runners on base. The knock on Sandoval is he walks too many batters. Sandoval isn’t an elite pitcher, but he is clearly better than his 5.60 ERA. A potential buy low candidate here. Jack Flaherty (3.84 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.27 SIERA) Flaherty has been up and down throughout his career. He is throwing the ball extremely well for the Tigers this season. Flaherty is striking out 11.95 batters per nine innings. Opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers in general are much more competitive than they have been, and I think Flaherty is a pitcher to watch the rest of the way. His velocity is solid and his walk rate is just 1.33 walks per nine innings. Excellent.  Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 2.60 SIERA) Glasnow has top of the line stuff. His fastball averages 96.3 mph and his slider and curveball are tremendous strikeout pitches. Glasnow has had some bad luck in recent starts, so if someone wants to get too low on him I would be happy to buy stock. Glasnow has a superb 0.91 WHIP on the season. His hard hit batted ball percentage is below 30%.  George Kirby (4.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.47 SIERA) Kirby is still a good young pitcher. He is only 26 so his prime is still ahead of him. Kirby was excellent in each of the last two seasons, but his numbers this year haven’t been as good. I expect him to bounce back. Kirby has elite ccontrol. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. The lack of free passes is a huge boost to long term performance. He is great at inducing soft contact from hitters too. Kirby is someone I’ll look to back in certain spots going forward. Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.96 SIERA) Lopez is a great candidate for positive regression in the coming weeks and months. Lopez has a strikeout rate of a whopping 27.7%. He has an extremely low walk rate of 4.0%. His left on base rate is very low at 63.6% on the season. Lopez has a walk rate of less than one batter per nine innings in his last five starts. He has three walks and 32 strikeouts in that time. His home run rate allowed should come down, and he is still a quality pitcher. 

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How to Determine the Difference Between Sharp Action and Public

by Wayne Root

Monday, May 27, 2024

The Market Place:Like any marketplace, a buyer and seller agree on a price - in this case a line.  But knowing the line is only half the picture. Understanding the forces affecting line' movement (the volume of bets, percentage of bets on the home team and the percentage of bets on the away team) is essential in determining the true value of any line. We always check this data. That begins our public money vs sharp action analysis. Ticket percentage(s):Ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll notice the sharp action if the figures aren’t similar.Public Money Ticket(s):From October through June, bettors and fans alike will have NBA basketball on their televisions almost every evening. With so many games available to bet on – how should you pick what to bet. Look at the money and bet-percentage splits, of course. This data is provided to you directly from sportsbooks ahead of games each night during the season so you can see where both the public money and percentage of tickets are concentrated for each game. This is our start to “follow the money”.What signals Sharp Action?A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.Money Percentage(s):Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).Bet Percentage(s):Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards. Naturally, this works for football and basketball. Get that Information:Many sites will charge you to access this information, but some free options are available if you dig deep enough. Homework is mandatory for all those that are successful. Don’t be that “other” guy. Do the work or follow us. Good Luck,Wayne Allyn Root

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/27/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 27, 2024

The Monday Memorial Day sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Boston Celtics play in Indiana to play the Pacers on ESPN and ESPN2 at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Celtics took a 3-0 series lead with their 114-111 victory at Indiana as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. They have won six straight games and ten of their last 11 games. The Pacers have lost four of six games. Boston is an 8-point road favorite, with the total set at 222.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. The Edmonton Oilers host the Dallas Stars on TNT and truTV at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Stars evened this series at a game apiece with their 3-1 win at home on Friday. They have won five of their last seven games. The Oilers had won three games in a row before that loss. Edmonton is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 1:05 p.m. ET. Cole Irvin takes the ball for the Orioles to pitch against Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox. Baltimore is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. Minnesota plays at home against Kansas City, with the Twins sending out Joe Ryan to battle the Royals’ Alec Marsh. The Twins are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Toronto plays in Chicago, with Chris Bassitt taking the hill for the Blue Jays to face Nick Nastrini for the White Sox. The Blue Jays are a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.Five MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. Milwaukee is at home against Chicago, with the Brewers giving the ball to Robert Gasser to pitch against the Cubs’ Justin Steele. The Brewers are a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Cleveland is in Colorado, with Xzavion Curry taking the hill for the Guardians to duel against Austin Gomber for the Rockies. The Guardians are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. Los Angeles visits New York with the Dodgers sending out Gavin Stone to battle against the Mets’ Tylor Megill. The Dodgers are a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cincinnati hosts St. Louis with Nick Lodolo taking the ball for the Reds to face Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. The Reds are a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta plays at home against Washington, with the Braves turning to Charlie Morton to go against the Nationals' Mitchell Parker. Atlanta is a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play in San Francisco against the Giants at 5:05 p.m. ET. Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies to pitch against Blake Snell for the Giants. Philadelphia is a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Padres tap Michael King to pitch against Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. San Diego is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET. Framber Valdez gets the ball for the Astros to face Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Houston is a -120 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/26/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 26, 2024

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves on TNT and truTV at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Mavericks took a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 109-108 upset victory on the road against the Timberwolves as a 6-point underdog on Friday. They have won four straight games and six of their last seven. The Timberwolves lost for the fifth time in seven games. Dallas is a 2.5-point favorite, with the total set at 208 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Florida Panthers play at home against the New York Rangers on ABC at 3:10 p.m. ET. The Rangers evened this series at 1-1 with their 2-1 victory in overtime on Friday. The Panthers are a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Detroit to play the Tigers on Roku at 11:35 a.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Three more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners play in Washington against the Nationals. The Atlanta Braves are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -218 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Cincinnati to play the Reds as a -225 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. The San Francisco Giants play in New York against the Mets as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Kansas City Royals as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Texas Rangers. The Baltimore Orioles are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. Two MLB games start at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians play in Los Angeles against the Angels as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros are in Oakland to play the A's as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Miami Marlins visit Arizona to play the Diamondbacks as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features the St. Louis Cardinals playing at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Cardinals are a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/25/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 25, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Boston Celtics travel to Indiana to play the Pacers on ABC at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Celtics took a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with a 126-110 victory at home as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday. They have won nine of their last ten games. The Pacers had won two games in a row before dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Boston is a 7-point road favorite, with the total set at 222.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Stars host the Edmonton Oilers on TNT and truTV at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Oilers took the opening game of this series with a 3-2 victory in double overtime on Thursday. They have won three games in a row. The Stars have lost two of their last three games. Dallas is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Detroit against the Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8. The New York Mets play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets are at home against the Texas Rangers as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles visit the Chicago White Sox as a -192 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners play at Washington against the Nationals as a -175 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 9. The Atlanta Braves are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros visit the Oakland A’s at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games are on regional coverage on Fox at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Chicago Cubs play in St. Louis. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Cincinnati to play the Reds as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 9:10 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. The Cleveland Guardians play in Los Angeles against the Angels as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the New York Yankees as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Miami Marlins on FS1 at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.

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2024 Roland Garros (French Open) Preview:

by William Burns

Friday, May 24, 2024

It's already been a grueling 2024 season for all of the players and it's only just getting into the busy time of the year. Fully into the "Clay Court" season after a very intriguing start to the year on the "Hard Court." Injury/Fatigue Woes:  Entering this year's French Open plenty of the top players have been dealing with issues with their bodies. World #1 Novak Djokovic might not be dealing with an injury, but he's dealing with something. As a matter of fact, he's yet to win a single tournament in 2024. #2 Carlos Alcaraz enters the big one "concerned" of his forearm still. Yes, they say he's "pain-free," coming in. However, there have been reports that he is still worried about hitting his forehand with full power. #3 in the world, Jannik Sinner also arrives in Paris with a lingering hip injury. After winning the Australian Open, fans were expecting him to play in Rome (his home country.) He wasn't able to play and everyone is eager to see if he can win another slam despite the setback. Many more players have been forced to withdraw from tournaments and not play due to injuries as well. Hopefully there's nothing to worry about for this tournament, but time will tell.   Giant Opening Round Matchups:  Kicking things off with an epic showdown, tennis fans have already been talking anxiously about the #4 Alexander Zverev/Rafael Nadal match. In what could very well be Nadal's last French Open of his career, he will have to go through one of today's best players in order to make a run at glory once again. Zverev knows that this match will not be easy, even considering Nadal's current form and health. This one is MUST-WATCH TV. (Zverev is -400) In a battle of the so-called veteran, we will get to watch the 39 & 37 year old's Stan Wawrinka/Andy Murray showdown in the opening round. Yes, it might not be as exciting of a match than the first one that I mentioned. However, this is a match that long time Tennis fans will be tuning into. Stan has won 16 tournaments (three grand slams) in his time in the tennis world including one in this very tournament back in 2015. On the other hand, the Brit has won 46 titles (three grand slams) over the course of his career. No, he's never won the French. But, he has featured in a final back in 2016. (Wawrinka is -200) On the women's side, a very good matchup will be #23 Anna Kalinskaya/Clara Burel. Both of these women are extremely talented and enter the tournament in the top 50 in the world. Kalinskaya hasn't really been all that impressive on Clay so far. But, she's coming off an excellent Quarter-Final finish in Australia and she's already beaten world #1 Iga Swiatek this season. For Clara Burel, she's not as well known in the tennis world. She made it to the Rof32 in the Australian Open, and will continue to push each and every one of her opponents. This should be a fascinating watch.  (Kalinskaya is -145) Potential Look-Ahead Matchups:Hopeful of yet another Grand-Slam win to his name, Novak Djokovic will have probably the easiest path to the final with #3 Sinner and #2 Alcaraz on the other side. If Rafa Nadal somehow manages to make it that far, a Semi Final matchup with Djokovic would be epic. Looking at the women's draw, #2 Aryna Sabalenka & #4 Elena Rybakina are on the same side. A match between former #1 Naomi Osaka and current #1 Iga Swiatek could very well happen in the second round. Overall many very interesting matchups could play out over the course of this tournament.  Odds to Win (via. DraftKings:) Men's: Carlos Alcaraz +260Novak Djokovic +330 Jannik Sinner +450Alexander Zverev +700Stefanos Tsitsipas +850 Casper Ruud +1200Andrey Rublev +2500Rafael Nadal +2500Daniil Medvedev +3000 Holger Rune +4000Women's: Iga Swiatek -165 Aryna Sabalenka +550 Coco Gauff +900 Elena Rybakina +1000Danielle Collins +2000 Jalena Ostapenko +4000 Maria Sakkari +5000 Qinwen Zheng +5000 Mirra Andreeva +6000 Ons Jabeur +6500  Burns' French Open 2024 Projections:  It's very hard to go against the two favorite's to win the whole thing. That being said, I do expect both Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek to come away with the French Open this year. They are both just way too talented on clay and I don't see them losing. A couple of players that could also win are Novak Djokovic (of course,) Jannik Sinner and Rafael Nadal (if he's playing his best) on the Men's side. For the women, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina could also win with a bit of luck. The top four women at the moment are simply much better than the rest of the field. Therefore, I believe that it's almost a guarantee that one of them wins. Best Bets: Carlos Alcaraz +260 to Win & Iga Swiatek -165 to Win. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/24/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 24, 2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 2 of the Western Conference finals. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Dallas Mavericks on TNT and truTV at 8:35 p.m. ET. The Mavericks took Game 1 of this series with their 108-105 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. They have won five of their last six games. The Timberwolves have lost four of six games. Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Florida Panthers travel to New York to play the Rangers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Panthers took a 1-0 series lead with a 3-0 shutout victory at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday. They have won five of their last six games. The Rangers have lost three of their last four games. Florida is a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Detroit against the Tigers as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates. The Seattle Mariners visit Washington to play the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -138 money-line road favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play in Tampa Bay against the Rays at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Four MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Cincinnati to play the Reds as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. The New York Mets play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Boston Red Sox are home against the Milwaukee Brewers on Apple TV+ as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Minnesota Twins host the Texas Rangers as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles travel to Chicago to play the White Sox on Apple TV+ at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago Cubs play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 8:15 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Three more games close out the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the Miami Marlins as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play in San Diego against the Padres as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/23/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 23, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Boston Celtics host the Indiana Pacers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Celtics won the opening game of this best-of-seven series with a 133-128 victory as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. They have won eight of their last nine games. Indiana had won two games in a row before the loss. Boston is a 9-point favorite, with the Total set at 204.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Edmonton Oilers on TNT and truTV at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Stars won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 2-1 victory at Colorado last Friday to end that series in six games. The Oilers won for the third time in four games with their 3-2 victory at Vancouver in Game 7 of that series on Monday. Dallas is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates are at home against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 9-5 victory against the Pirates in 10 innings yesterday. Pittsburgh had won two games in a row before the loss. Mason Black gets the ball for San Francisco to pitch against Paul Skenes for the Pirates.The New York Yankees host the Seattle Mariners after their 7-3 victory against them on Wednesday, which ended their two-game losing streak. The Mariners had won two games in a row before that loss. The Yankees tap Luis Gil to battle against the Mariners' Luis Castillo. New York is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the Texas Rangers at 1:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies are on a five-game winning streak after their 11-4 victory against the Rangers yesterday. Texas is on a three-game losing streak. Zack Wheeler gets the ball for Philadelphia to face Andrew Heaney for Texas. The Phillies are a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The San Diego Padres travel to Cincinnati to play the Reds at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Padres ended a two-game losing streak with their 7-3 victory on the road against the Reds yesterday. Cincinnati has lost four of their last five games. Matt Waldron takes the mound for San Diego to duel against Frankie Montas for the Reds. Both teams are priced at -110, with a total of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves play in Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Braves won their second game in the last three games in a 9-2 victory against the Cubs yesterday. Chicago has lost four of their last six games. Neither team has yet to name their starting pitcher as of Wednesday night. Atlanta is a -125 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. The Oakland A's are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 3:37 p.m. ET. The Rockies ended their four-game losing streak with a 4-3 win in 12 innings against the A's yesterday. Oakland lost for the ninth time in their last ten games. The A's turn to Joey Estes to pitch against Colorado's Ryan Feltner. Oakland is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The Toronto Blue Jays are in Detroit to play the Tigers at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays won for the third time in their last four games with a 9-2 victory at home against the Chicago White Sox yesterday. The Tigers are on a four-game losing streak after an 8-3 loss at Kansas City on Wednesday afternoon. Toronto has yet to name their starting pitcher to face Jack Flaherty for Detroit. The Blue Jays are a -120 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 7.5.The Baltimore Orioles visit Chicago to play the White Sox at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Orioles lost for the third time in their last four games after a 5-4 setback at St. Louis on Wednesday. The White Sox lost for the fifth time in six games with their loss to the Blue Jays yesterday. Grayson Rodriguez takes the hill for Baltimore to battle against Mike Clevinger for Chicago. The Orioles are a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/22/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 1 of the Western Conference finals. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Dallas Mavericks on TNT and truTV at 8:35 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves are on a two-game winning streak after their 98-90 upset victory on the road against Denver as a 4.5-point underdog in Game 7 of that series on Sunday. The Mavericks won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 117-116 victory against Oklahoma City as a 4-point favorite in Game 6 of that series on Saturday. Minnesota is a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 208 (all odds from DraftKings).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals. The New York Rangers play at home against the Florida Panthers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Rangers ended a two-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory at Carolina in the sixth game of that series last Thursday. The Panthers won for the fourth time in five games with a 2-1 victory at Boston in the sixth game of that series on Friday. Florida is a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Minnesota Twins travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the New York Mets at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 1:15 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Detroit Tigers are in Kansas City to play the Royals as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.Four MLB games start at 6:40 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres visit the Cincinnati Reds as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Texas Rangers as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Miami against the Marlins as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Boston Red Sox at 6:50 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays are at home against the Chicago White Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves are in Chicago to play the Cubs at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite. The Oakland A’s host the Colorado Rockies at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

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UEFA Euro Cup Group Betting (2024)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Most of the domestic leagues in Europe have come to an end for the season and that means that the 2024 European Championship is right around the corner now. The first match of the competition is set to kick off on Friday, June 14, between Scotland and the host nation Germany. Italy are the defending champions from the 2020 Euro Cup that was played back in 2021. Italy was +1000 to win the tournament back in the 2020 Euro Cup so there is always plenty of value to be found in these competitions, and not just with picking a winner outright. There are many different ways to bet on the competition, one of them being with the various group betting markets, so here is a list of the best bets to make for the group stage of the 2024 Euro Cup. Group Winner Scotland +800: Scotland is coming into this competition at +800 to win their group since they are in the same group as the host nation, but there is no reason why they should be priced as the worst team in the group when they are in a group where they are not the worst team by far. Scotland has done a lot to improve over the last year as they have a lot of young talent that has been breaking out for their various teams in the Premier League. Scotland also dominated their group during the qualification stage as they finished 2nd place to Spain but did have a win over the group winners. Scotland is in a group with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. Hungary is really the worst team in this group and should be priced accordingly, but even so, they have given Germany a lot of trouble in their recent meetings over the last few years and that is something that is going to help Scotland win this group as Hungary will steal some points with some draws from the others. Switzerland is priced as the 2nd best team in this group but they were not that good in their group of the qualifying phase as they struggled to beat some of the weaker teams in their group and ended up with a lot of draws which made winning the 2nd spot very close in the end. Finally, Germany is priced as the heavy favorite in this group due to being the host nation, but that is completely absurd for a team that has not played in a meaningful competition since failing to make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup in 2022, and for a team that has also failed to make it out of the group stage in 2 of their last 3 competitions on the world stage. Germany is also transitioning to a new manager as they sacked their manager after the last World Cup, but they have not had a real match to play in under their new manager and Scotland gets them on opening night which could spell trouble for the host nation. Scotland has the quality to win this group and are in the best situation to do so. There is a lot of value in Scotland at +800 to win Group A. Spain -125: Spain is coming into this competition at -125 to win their group and they are the best team in their group despite having some stronger competition. Spain has improved a lot over the last few years as they made it past the group stage at the last Euro Cup and the last World Cup as well, but they finally showed some results last year in the UEFA Nations League Final as they were the ones to win it. This team has been growing over the last year and they are only going to be hungry to go deep into this tournament. They are in a group with Italy, Croatia, and Albania. Albania was able to qualify from the group qualifications as they were heating up to end their campaign in that group, but they also played in a much weaker group and did not have a lot of strong opponents to play against. They had it too easy in the group qualifying, but now they are in one of the stronger groups in this tournament and it will be tough for them to steal a point from any of the teams. Croatia could be a threat in this group as they finished 3rd at the last World Cup and have had a lot of success on the world stage over the last few years, making quite a few deep runs in these competitions over the last few years, but this is also a Croatia squad that has been aging and as much experience as they have on their side, these players are still 2 years older than they were at the World Cup and a few of their core players are nearing the ends of their careers as well. Croatia can still be a threat in this tournament, but Spain has the talent to deal with them as they actually beat Croatia in the UEFA Nations League Final last year. Italy are the defending champions of this tournament but a lot has happened since they won the 2020 Euro Cup. Italy missed the last World Cup in 2022 after winning the 2020 Euro Cup and now they are in a transition phase with a new manager who has completely changed the style of play that this team has been used to for years. Italy could be a threat since they did win less than 4 years ago and have a much better manager now that has injected some youth into the squad, but there is still too much instability with this team which will give Spain an advantage when they play. Spain also beat them in the UEFA Nations League Semi Final last year. Spain has been a much improved team over the last few years and they are good enough to win this whole tournament so there is a lot of value at this price to win their group. Spain will win Group B at -125. Bottom of the Group Poland -138: Poland is coming into this competition priced at the bottom of their group and for good reason. They are -138 to finish at the bottom of the group. They did get out of the group at the last World Cup, but they only went 1-1-1 in the group stage and made it out on goal difference. Poland is already a much weaker team that has been on the decline over the last few years despite still finding ways to qualify for these tournaments, but that good fortune is coming to an end soon. They are in a group with France, Netherlands, and Austria. France is the favorite to win the group and that is no surprise as they went to the final of the last World Cup and have been a dominant force in these competitions over the last few years, winning the World Cup back in 2018 and going deep in every competition since then. France has one of the best teams in the world and there is no way that Poland rips away any points from them as they did lose 3-1 to France at the last World Cup as well. Netherlands is next in the group and it is tough to see Poland ripping away any points from them either. Netherlands was in the final four of the UEFA Nations League last year as well as making it past the group stage at the last World Cup, losing to Argentina who went on to win it all. They have a very good team that is clinical with their decision making on the pitch and they are not going to have much trouble getting out of this group, other than their match against France who they struggled against in the qualification group. Austria is the 3rd team in this group and the one that Poland would likely be fighting with, but Austria was a dominant team in their qualifying group and have improved a lot over the last year with a lot of talented players in their squad having break out seasons at their domestic league clubs. Austria is going to be a real threat in this group to be one of the teams that qualifies in 3rd place and this is really the team Poland will need a result against to avoid the bottom of the group, but Austria has been improving while Poland has been on the decline so as it stands, Austria has the much better squad in this tournament. Poland is going to finish at the bottom of this group and they will fail to qualify out of the group stage. There is a lot of value in Poland at -138 to finish at the bottom of Group D. Slovakia -125: Slovakia is coming into this competition at -125 to finish at the bottom of their group. Slovakia was a dominant team in their group during the qualifying stage as they won every match in the group except for 2 which they lost, but both of those losses came against Portugal who was the team to finish higher than them. They were very good against every other opponent in the group, but they also had one of the weakest qualifying groups with teams like San Marino, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Bosnia. They did not really play any strong opponents in that group and that is going to be very different here as they are in a group with Belgium, Ukraine, and Romania. Belgium is the big favorite to win this group and they are really the only real powerhouse team in this group so on the surface it does not look so bad for Slovakia, but the other 2 teams in the group are certainly no pushovers despite not being powerhouses. Belgium failed to make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup but they dominated the qualifying group for this tournament and are by far the best team in this group. Belgium will also be playing with something to prove here after failing to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup. Ukraine is listed as the 2nd team in this group and although they do not have a real star on their team, they still have a lot of talented players that have been having great seasons like some of their Premier League players. Ukraine also has a bit of an advantage here since they have not been able to play home matches at home for a while now so they have plenty of experience playing at neutral locations over the last few years. Romania comes in as the 3rd team in this group but they actually had a very impressive campaign in the qualifying group. They won their group in the qualifying phase and beat out Switzerland who was the favorite to win that group. Romania is another team that has been improving over the last year and although they are not a real threat to win this group, Slovakia is certainly a team they can beat as Romania will be right there fighting for a 3rd place qualification. Slovakia is not in a group with a lot of overpowering teams, but they will still be lucky to even get a point in this group. There is a lot of value in Slovakia at -125 to finish at the bottom of Group E. Group Qualification Scotland -138: Scotland was already covered earlier as a possible group winner for Group A and they are coming into this competition at -138 to qualify out of the group stage. For all the same reasons mentioned above, Scotland has a real chance to win this group with the way they have been building their squad over the last year so there is a lot of value in Scotland at -138 to qualify from the group stage as they have the ability to win this group and even if they cannot win the group, they are sure to finish high enough to qualify. Austria -110: Austria is coming into this competition at -110 to qualify from the group stage. This is a reasonable price since they are the 3rd best team in the group from a talent perspective, sitting behind 2 powerhouse teams in France and the Netherlands, but considering the way this qualification works with the 4 best teams that finished in 3rd place advancing, this is a very good price for an Austria team that has a very good squad and will find themselves qualifying in the 3rd place spot. It will be tough for them to rip points away from France with the form France has been in over the last year, but the Netherlands have been vulnerable with their defense so it would not be shocking to see Austria come away with a draw there. Even if they do not, Austria is going to beat Poland as they are the better team that has been improving over the last year while Poland has been on the decline, and that 3 points alone could be enough for Austria to qualify. Austria has a very underrated squad coming into this tournament and they have a team that can do some real damage. There is a lot of value in Austria at -110 to qualify from the group stage. 

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