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College Football 2024-25 Preview, Part 1 -- 134 Questions and Thoughts for 134 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

For the 14th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.CINCINNATI: My biggest question regarding the Bearcats in my deep dive on this team last year was if former head coach Luke Fickell left this program at just the right time? After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield, who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville, where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters were back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. The Bearcats were making their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. It was rough last year. Cincinnati dropped to 3-9 last season while winning only once in their nine games in conference play. They failed to score even 20 points in four of those losses to Big 12 opponents. Satterfield responded in the offseason by being extremely aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 14 new players on defense to complement four returning starters from a group that ranked 100th and 93rd in the FBS by allowing 30.0 Points-Per-Game and 402.8 total Yards-Per-Game. After losing defensive coordinator Bryan Brown, who took the same position at Ole Miss, Satterfield tapped longtime Iowa State linebacker coach Tyson Veldt to install the Cyclones’ 3-3-5 defense that usually rolls with three safeties. Transfer additions are also littered on offense, with the most impactful potentially being quarterback Brendan Sorsby, who passed for 1587 yards and added 276 rushing yards in ten games last year. The 6’3, 235-lb, redshirt sophomore has a big arm with scrambling abilities. He will be protected by an offensive line that returns its top six players. But banking on the transfer portal is precarious since team chemistry is never a given — and there is a reason these players from Power Four conferences decided the grass was greener on the other side of the street. Satterfield has middling results at Louisville, which is a comparable program to the Bearcats. Cincinnati should be this year simply because the 2024 season was destined for a step back. But things could go sideways pretty quickly. COASTAL CAROLINA: With quarterback Grayson McCall transferring to North Carolina State after leading the Chanticleer offense for the last four seasons, this is a new era for this program in the second year under head coach Tim Beck. Coastal Carolina finished 8-5 last season with McCall missing six games. The conventional wisdom is that this team is poised to take a step back after catching lightning in a bottle with McCall and previous head coach Jamey Chadwell who moved on to Liberty last year. Maybe. Beck, the previous offensive coordinator at North Carolina State, has 66 new players on campus. Welcome to the transfer portal era. Hasty conclusions one way or another will likely be hasty.COLORADO: The Buffaloes started last season hot by winning their first three games while scoring 41 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But the overwhelming hype then crashed to rock bottom with Colorado losing eight of their last nine games in a 4-8 campaign in their last year in the Pac-12. The offense collapsed from a lack of depth and eventually got exposed by opposing coaches. In the last month of the season, they scored only 20.3 PPG. The Buffaloes scored 37.8 PPG in their wins but only 23.4 PPG in their losses. Senior quarterback Shedeur Sanders is a good quarterback who threw for 3230 yards. Two-way player Travis Hunter is dynamic at wide receiver. But head coach Deion Sanders needs to address some basic fundamentals still with the roster. The offensive line remains a significant liability. The 56 sacks allowed were the second-most in the FBS, although Sanders deserves some of that blame for holding on to the ball too long (perhaps, justifiably, to make big plays). This offense could not run the ball either, as they ranked 130th in the BFS by averaging only 68.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Once again, Coach Prime was very aggressive in the transfer portal with several new additions to the skill positions. The offensive line was a complete rebuild from the portal and high school recruits. The defense remains a substantial problem. Colorado surrendered 453.3 total YPG, which resulted in 34.8 PPG, ranking 127th and 121st in the nation. The biggest is the defensive line as well. The Buffaloes ranked 107th in the nation by surrendering 176.4 rushing YPG — and opposing rushers generated 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry against them. Six starters are back from that unit, who will be joined by at least 23 transfers. No one can accuse Sanders of not pounding the pavement to improve the talent base. His new offensive and defensive coordinators, Pat Shurmur and Rob Livingstone, are veteran NFL coaches. But until the offensive line can protect the quarterback and that side of the ball can establish some kind of rushing attack while the defense can slow down teams, avoiding Hunter in the secondary by simply running the ball down their throat, Colorado is not going to be competitive as they make their return to the Big 12.FLORIDA ATLANTIC: The Owls were a disappointment last year under first-year head coach Tom Herman. After two straight 5-7 seasons that got Willie Targatt fired in his third year with the program, FAU was only 4-8 last year after dropping their final four games. Moving up to the American Athletic Conference from Conference USA proved difficult for this program which has lost 29 games in a row against Power Five competition. The offense took a step back under Herman as well with the Owls only scoring 23.8 Points-Per-Game, ranking 87th in the nation, after scoring 29.8 PPG the year prior. A Week Three injury to starting quarterback Casey Thompson did not help matters as former Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson was not ready to run the offense. Herman is trying to be patient and improve the team’s in-state recruiting — but he was more aggressive with the transfer portal in the offseason in an attempt to improve the talent level of the roster. Six transfers add depth to the defensive line. Six more transfers bolster a wide receiver room that does not return a starter — and their best offensive player, LaJohntay Wester, left for Colorado. The quarterback room lost three players in the offseason — but Herman hopes he found an answer in dual-threat Cam Fancher who was a two-year starter at Marshall. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason last year was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. In hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. However, the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. FLORIDA STATE: My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they had turned a corner — or several corners — after they won their final six games in 2022. in hindsight, the Seminoles clearly turned a few corners by winning 13 more in a row and taking the ACC Championship Game. But the injury to quarterback Jordan Travis and their exodus of opt-outs in the Orange Bowl against Georgia leaves the jury out regarding how close they are to the elite teams like the Bulldogs despite that ugly 63-3 loss. Head coach Mike Norvell returns only 10 starters but he worked the portal hard by adding another 14 players including five from Alabama. I am left with uncertainty. Is Norvell ahead of the curve in finding the right mix of recruiting, attracting transfers, and maintaining his thumbprint on program culture? Or did he find lightning in the bottle with senior quarterback Jordan Travis, star defensive end Jared Key, and wide receiver Keon Campbell while facing a weak ACC schedule before the injuries and opt-outs offered a convenient excuse for a 60-point loss to Georgia? Senior quarterback D.J. Uigalelei transfers in at quarterback after embattled seasons with Clemson and Oregon State. I just don’t know if he is “plug-and-play” at this point. Norvell does have depth at running back and an experienced offensive line bolstered by transfers from Alabama and Florida. And the Seminoles have depth on the defensive line and in the secondary which is where you want to have it. I worry about programs leaning too hard on the transfer portal since it is like playing roulette — and the Seminoles lost ten players in the NFL draft including six in the first three rounds. On the other hand, there are enough reasons to suspect Norvell is ahead of the curve as to where college football has been going. GEORGIA TECH: Any concern that the Yellow Jackets jumped the gun on giving Brent Kay the permanent head coaching job after a small sample size in 2022 when he went 4-4 down the stretch taking over for the fired Geoff Collins was put to rest last season. Georgia Tech upset Wake Forest, Miami (FL), and Virginia all on the road before beating Central Florida by a 30-17 score in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a 7-6 record (and 5-3 in the ACC). For the first time in five seasons, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24.0 Points-Per-Game with sophomore quarterback Haynes King leading the way to a 31.1 PPG scoring average. The former four-star recruit from Texas A&M is poised for a breakout campaign in his junior season under second-year offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner and co-coordinator and quarterbacks coach Chris Weinke. The dual-threat QB accounted for 35 total touchdowns — and he has seven starters back to join him. It is the other side of the ball that remains the work in progress. Georgia Tech ranks 120th in the nation by allowing 437.1 Yards-Per-Game. Five starters return — and Kay brought in nine transfers and hired Tyler Santucci as the new defensive coordinator after he oversaw a good Duke defense last year. The group needs more depth and playmakers — but improving on their run defense that ranked 128th in the FBS by allowing 221.3 YPG with opposing rushers generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Kay was able to retain several important players from the temptations of the transfer portal. He is building a culture focused on toughness and doing an admirable job bringing in talent despite the high academic standards in the Admissions Office. But a brutal schedule awaits with every opponent on the roster making the postseason last year. JACKSONVILLE STATE: Last year, I wondered if the Gamecocks could become the next debutante from the FCS to find immediate success at the FBS level. Not only did head coach Rich Rodriguez oversee a 9-4 record, they became the first former FCS program to win a bowl game in their first season (0-4 previously) when they survived giving up three defensive touchdowns in a 34-31 victory against UL-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl. No one will question Rodriguez’s offensive chops as one of the originators of zone reads and spread offenses. The surprising dynamic of last year’s team was just how good the defense is still despite the jump-up in competition to the FBS level and Conference USA. Jacksonville State held their opponents to 22.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Zac Alley did such a good job that he impressed Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables to poach him as the Sooners’ next defensive coordinator. Rodriguez tapped long-time defensive analyst at Tulsa, Luke Olson, to run the defense this season. Rodriguez must replace a starting quarterback, his top two running backs, and his two top wide receivers from last year — but that is not as large a hurdle as it appears. He always rotates his players on both sides of the ball so experienced players return. He played the hot hand at quarterback last season — and former Nebraska transfer Logan Smothers is back after accounting for 13 touchdowns last year. Rodriguez also brought in several transfers including former UConn starter Zion Turner. Don’t underestimate Rodriguez’s ability to find dual-threat QBs and speedy players at the skill positions that fit his unique offense. He continues to find these players at the lower division levels — but now he has added several FBS and Power Five conference talent to fill these roles. Last year’s team was still dominated by players recruited to play at the FCS level. Now Rodriguez has assembled a roster of players primarily recruited by FBS rivals.MIAMI (FL): The criticism of the Hurricanes in the two seasons under head coach Mario Cristobal has been that the sum has rarely been greater than the parts. It is hard to argue with that. Despite improving the talent base through recruiting and using the transfer portal, Miami (FL) has just a 12-13 record in the last two years. The offense is scoring fewer points and gaining fewer yards than they were in the final season under previous head coach Manny Diaz. The other side of the ball has improved — the Hurricanes ranked 24th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 321.6 total Yards-Per-Game. However, Miami (FL) surrendered 32.4 Points-Per-Game against teams ranked in ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ top 50. Cristobal’s game management has been questionable. The failure to simply take a knee and run the clock out against Georgia Tech was inexcusable — and the subsequent fumble, which gave the Yellow Jackets the opportunity to win that game on a Hail Mary was a gaffe that can trigger long-term psychic damage to a team. In their four losses decided by seven points, the Hurricanes blew a second-half lead in each contest. The defense returns only five of the 15 players who logged in at least 200 snaps. With five starters back, Cristobal brought in seven additional players in the transfer portal who have starting experience with FBS programs. This side of the ball lost three players to the NFL, including safeties Kamren Kinchens and James Williams. The offense returns five starters — but there is plenty of excitement for two impact transfers from the Pac-12. Running back Damien Martinez rushed for 1185 yards as an All-Pac 12 honoree for Oregon State. But the success of this team will depend on how effectively the coaching staff can put quarterback Cam Ward into a position to succeed. Originally a recruit at Incarnate Word, the fifth-year senior has passed for 6963 yards the last two seasons for Washington State while completing 65.5% of his passes with 48 touchdowns. Ward has a loaded wide receiver room. A question will be whether or not Cristobal and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson will adapt their schemes to Ward’s skillset or ask him to fit into their system. MINNESOTA: There is a very good chance that the Golden Gophers will be better than their record as they draw a brutal schedule in the revamped Big Ten. After two straight 9-4 campaigns, Minnesota took a step back last year with a 6-7 record — although they did beat Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 30-24 score. The Golden Gophers could not pass the ball last season under sophomore quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. They ranked 123rd in the nation by averaging only 143.4 passing Yards-Per-Game. Kaliakmanis left for Rutgers as head coach P.J. Fleck brought in Max Brosmer who led the FCS in passing yards for New Hampshire last season. Brosmer grew into the job during spring practice and was named a team captain by his teammates. Fleck will still operate a run-first attack on offense with talented sophomore running back Darius Taylor who rushed for 808 yards in six games before getting injured. The offensive line is a strength with four starters returning. The defense took a step back last season after ranking eighth in total yards allowed in 2022 — they fell to 54th in the nation last season by giving up 368.4 total YPG. Eight starters return — but Fleck had to find a new defensive coordinator after Joe Rossi left to take the same job at Michigan State. Former James Madison defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman comes in after coaching linebackers at Rutgers last year. The ceiling for this program is not as high as several of their Big Ten opponents because Fleck is simply not able to recruit with those national powers at Minnesota — but the floor is pretty high under Fleck. If Brosmer offers a significant upgrade at quarterback and the defense improves from last year’s “floor,” the Golden Gophers will be a dangerous out. NEBRASKA: A new head coach, yet the same buzzard’s luck for the Cornhuskers, who have now endured seven straight losing seasons while posting a 5-21 record in their last 26 games decided by one scoring possession. Nebraska went 5-7 in the first season under head coach Matt Rhule after losing their last four games. Four of their losses were by just three points — and three of those losses were in games where a late interception set up their opponent to score on a game-ending field goal. In those three losses, the Cornhuskers only allowed 13 points in those contests — so the defense is not to blame. Under former Syracuse defensive coordinator Tony White, Nebraska ranked 13th and 11th in the nation by surrendering just 18.3 Points-Per-Game and 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Seven starters are back from that group, including three of the top four tacklers. The problem was on the other side of the ball, where the Cornhuskers ranked 120th by scoring 18.0 PPG and tied for 115th by generating just 312.8 total YPG. Rhule attacked this weakness, five-star blue-chipper Dylan Raiola, who was previously committed to Georgia. He should start under center immediately and stabilize a unit that led the nation with 31 turnovers last year. Rhule is committed to developing a winning culture in Lincoln that does not get dependent on the transfer portal. He brought in only eight transfer players, with only three of them seniors. In his previous successful stints at Temple and Baylor, those teams improved an average of five more wins in his second season. And while Rhule’s teams have just a 1-14 record in games decided by one possession in his Year One, that mark improves to 12-11 in Year Two under his leadership. The Cornhuskers only got outgained by -10.0 net YPG in Big Ten play last year despite a 3-6 record. The offense can only improve — and the defense should remain stout. But Nebraska football still has a hill to climb to change the losing mindset that has afflicted this program since the disastrous Scott Frost era. NEVADA: This program hit rock bottom three years ago when head coach Mike Norvell bolted the program for Colorado State and took many key players with him. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno for the first season under former Oregon defensive coordinator Ken Wilson. After two straight 2-10 seasons, the program moved on from Wilson and brought in another defensive coach in Jeff Choate who had been the co-defensive coordinator at Texas for the last three seasons. On paper, the hire makes sense since Choate has been an assistant coach for Mountain West Conference programs — and he was the former head coach at Montana State before taking them to the FCS Semifinals in 2019. But it’s a Herculean assignment to revive a program that is one of the clear losers in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. Wilson was not able to clean up the defense that ranked 123rd in the FBS last year by allowing 441.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense collapsed the last two years — they scored 18.8 Points-Per-Game in 2022 before falling to 17.3 PPG (T-124th) last year. The Wolf Pack will be the underdog in almost all their games — but they could be dangerous relative to point spread expectations. Losing in the transfer portal and NIL resigns programs to Last Chance Saloon status regarding players from other programs — but Nevada does have many blue-chip transfers come in from Power Five conferences looking to make a name for themselves in Reno. It could be worse, from a talent perspective. NORTH CAROLINA: Another season under head coach Mack Brown, and another underwhelming record. In his five seasons back with the program, the Tar Heels have not won more than nine games. They have reached only one ACC Championship Game. Despite having the number three pick in the April NFL Draft at quarterback in Drake Maye, North Carolina finished with only an 8-5 record including a 4-4 mark in conference play. Once again, the defense failed to meet expectations of their blue-chip potential as the unit ranked 94th in the nation by giving up 404.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Eight opponents scored at least 30 points against them. Brown relieved Gene Chizik of his duties after the season and tapped Geoff Collins to be his third defensive coordinator in four years. Seven starters return along with nine of the 16 players who were on the field for at least 300 snaps last season. Brown continued to be aggressive in the transfer portal as he brought in senior quarterback Max Johnson from Texas A&M. He will compete with redshirt sophomore Conner Harrell for the starting quarterback job after playing five games last year including their bowl game. Either way, the quarterback position is taking a step back. The wide receiver room is stacked and running back Omarion Hampton is a tackle-breaking machine who ran for 1504 yards last year. But the offensive line replaces five of their top six players on the depth chart.  OKLAHOMA: The Sooners rebounded from their first losing season since 1998 to go 10-3 last year in the second season under head coach Brent Venables. The former defensive coordinator in Norman under Bob Stoops before coordinating the defense at Clemson under Dabo Swinney pulled off his third straight top-ten recruiting class. But his teams have lost seven of their ten games decided by one scoring possession. Now with Oklahoma making their debut in the SEC, I have concerns that the roster that Venables has assembled is not ready for that level of competition week in and week out. Holes on both sides of the line can be covered up in Big 12 play — but that won’t fly in this conference. The interior defensive linemen averaged 291 pounds in the spring game. The offensive line is being completely rebuilt with all five starters gone from last season. Venables has done a complete 180 flip from his criticism of Deion Sanders’ use of the transfer portal — and he brought in five transfers on the offensive line who have 114 career starts. Talent and certainly cohesion remain questions with that group. Venables turns to former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold at quarterback after senior Dillon Gabriel chose to spend his last season in college playing for Oregon. The wide receiver room is loaded — and the Sooners have a talented running back room. But this style of play with four wide receivers on the field most of the time may not be conducive to success in the SEC. The pass-happy attack does no favors for the defense either. Eleven of the top 13 tacklers return — and the linebackers and defensive backs appear to be elite, on paper. But this group ranked only 77th in the nation by surrendering 389.4 Yards-Per-Game last year with that group getting exposed often in the second half of the year. This was the unit Venables was supposed to fix — and he did fire defensive coordinator Ted Roof in the offseason. Defensive backs coach Jay Valai got promoted to co-defensive coordinator along with former aide at Clemson Zac Alley who ran the defense at Jacksonville State last season. With perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, there is a lot of pressure on this program and Venables, in particular. SMU: The Mustangs were very active in the transfer portal last offseason with head coach Rhett Lashlee poaching several players from Miami (FL) where he had previously been the offensive coordinator. He employed a similar strategy on defense by using Liberty as his minor league program where defensive coordinator Scott Symons had previously run the defense. It worked. SMU won the American Athletic Conference regular season and Conference Championship Game en route to an 11-3 record. Preston Stone developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the country — and the junior returns along with seven other starters on offense. But it was the play of the defense that transformed this program. After ranking 111th in the nation in 2022 by surrendering 431.2 total Yards-Per-Game, the Mustangs improved to 12th in the FBS by giving up only 304.1 YPG. Lashlee has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding the transfer portal — and he was very active once again this offseason. With only two starters returning on the offensive line, he brought in five transfers on the offensive line from Power Five conference programs. He added double-digit transfers on defense including eight linemen from Power Five conference teams. Lashlee certainly understands the challenge in SMU’s move to the ACC. While the Mustangs won all 11 of their games against Group of Five teams, all three of their losses last season were to Power Five conference foes — and they only averaged 14.0 Points-Per-Game in those games and never topped 17 points. They have lost nine of their last ten games against Power Five teams. TEMPLE: The Matt Rhule era when the Owls won 20 games and an American Athletic Conference title in 2015-16  is now a distant memory. The program floundered under head coach Rod Carey — and they have gone just 10-33 in the last four seasons. Temple is on the shortlist for the biggest losers in the transfer portal/NIL era. Third-year head coach Stan Drayton inherited a nightmare from the aftershocks of the mass exodus at the end of Carey’s tenure. Now Drayton is trapped in the negative feedback loop with any good players developed then leaving the program for greener pastures. The Owls return only 10 starters with many of their best players entering the transfer portal. Quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice, although I’m not sure that loss is as bad as advertised. Temple only scored 21.1 Points-Per-Game last year, ranking 107th in the FBS, under the son of the Hall of Famer’s leadership. Drayton has brought in 43 new players this season. The defense ranked 124th in the nation by surrendering 35.7 PPG. Five starters return — and Drayton added 20 transfer players. The problem is that Temple is on the wrong end of the talent transfer. Seven of those 20 transfers on defense are from junior college programs. And while diamonds in the rough can be found in the juco ranks, relying on these players is not the formula for success at the FBS level. Drayton seems to have improved the culture that sank under Carey. But after getting outgained by -67 net Yards-Per-Game in conference play in 2022, the Owls took a step back last year by getting outgained by -96 YPG. WESTERN MICHIGAN: The Broncos fired head coach Tim Lester after a 5-7 record in 2022 which was the program’s first losing season since 2013. Lester oversaw a 37-32 record in Kalamazoo, but the administration may have been concerned about a stalling offense that scored 21 or fewer points in nine games. They tapped Louisville offensive coordinator Lance Taylor as their new head coach banking on his resume that included stints in the NFL and Notre Dame as an assistant coach. Yet Western Michigan dropped to 4-8 last year with the offense scoring 17 or fewer points in five of their eight losses. Perhaps the Broncos were destined for an ugly rebuilding season with just ten starters returning last year. But now Taylor is replacing both his coordinators in his second season. Defensive coordinator Lou Esposito left the program after 11 seasons on staff to become the co-defensive coordinator at Memphis before eventually taking the defensive line coach job at Michigan. Offensive coordinator Billy Cosh left to become the head coach at Stony Brook. Did these coaches leave because these were better long-term opportunities? Or were they abandoning ship from a program in decline that lost seven games by 13 or more points and four by 24 or more points? Taylor has more experience this season with 17 returning starters including senior quarterback Hayden Wolff who completed 65.5% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and five interceptions. But after 22 previous starts at Old Dominion before transferring into the program onto a team that completed 49.9% of their passes, why wasn’t he given the keys to the offense before the last five games of the season? Taylor is trying to build a new identity for this team while taking his lumps in the transfer portal. What are the realistic expectations of this program in the world of NIL and the transfer portal?WISCONSIN: The Badgers come off a disappointing 7-6 season last year under first-year head coach Luke Fickell did not seem to get better results than the previous year’s team that all finished 7-6 which led to Paul Chryst getting fired in early October of that year. The excuses were flying. Injuries impacted the offense. Fickell was disappointed with some of the assistant coaches (that he fired) — so he brought in four new assistant coaches in the offseason. There was a focus in the offseason to get faster, longer, and more athletic on defense which Fickell attempted to address in the transfer portal. But there were deeper issues last year which Fickell will be held to account. Team chemistry hit rock bottom after a mid-November 14-point loss to Northwestern. The hiring of offensive coordinator Phil Longo to install his up-tempo Air Raid system seemed like an odd fit for this program that has enjoyed years of success as a physical team with great offensive lines and tough defenses that thrive in colder weather. The players struggled to pick up the new schemes that did not appear to be a great fit for the talent available. The unit lost their identity (for example, they rarely had the quarterback under center, leading to poor execution in short-yardage situations when being in shotgun was disadvantageous). An offense that ranked 76th in the nation by scoring 26.3 Points-Per-Game two years ago took another step back by scoring only 23.5 PPG last year, ranking 91st in the FBS. Perhaps another year of learning the system will help things click this season. And, once again, Fickell used the portal to add talent at quarterback by tapping Tyler Van Dyke from Miami (FL). But like Tanner Mordecai coming in from SMU last year, is Fickell simply finding retreads from other programs? Van Dyke got benched by the Hurricanes near the end of the season after a four-game stretch where he turned the ball over 11 times. To his credit, he did not throw an interception in his final two games of the season while throwing for 617 yards — but questions about his consistency remain. With a brutal schedule that features Alabama in non-conference along with USC, Oregon, and Penn State, things could unravel quickly if chemistry issues remain or the offense does not improve. Best of luck  — Frank.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024: Pretending "Let Russ Cook" Was Never a Thing

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Steelers made the playoffs for the 11th time in head coach Mike Tomlin’s 17 years as their head coach — and the team has never had a losing season under his leadership. But Pittsburgh was still not a very good team before they lost at Buffalo by a 31-17 score in the AFC Wildcard round of the playoffs. They were outscored by 1.2 Points-Per-Game and outgained -38.8 net Yards-Per-Game in the regular season. While they had a 10-7 regular season record, their Pythagorean win total was just 7.9. They won nine of their 11 games decided by one scoring possession — and while Tomlin’s effective game management deserves some of the credit, they had several fluky victories. They scored two defensive touchdowns in their opening-week win against Cleveland before beating Baltimore later in the season from a blocked punt safety. They were outgained in 12 of their 17 regular season games but somehow still won six of those games. A silver lining is that after getting outgained in all ten of their games under the immensely underqualified offensive coordinator Matt Canada, Pittsburgh won the yardage battle in five of their last seven regular season games after he was fired. The offense has since been completely retooled with all three quarterbacks now gone. General manager Omar Khan brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields as inexpensive reclamation projects. Many observers will be bullish on Wilson finding new life with the Steelers — these are the folks who tend to think that “Russ Can’t Fail — he can only be failed!” The “Let Russ Cook” brigade can point to his 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio to advance that he was pretty, pretty good after all last season. Maybe … but that analysis gets refuted by Sean Payton’s decision to not only give up on Wilson after one year by also eat $85 million in dead cap money. Payton eventually deployed the Taysom Hill gameplans with Wilson in the second half of the season with the offense usually not throwing the ball even 30 times a game. Wilson seems to have paid close attention to Aaron Rodgers' seminar on Stat padding. Yes, Wilson completed 66.4% of his passes and threw just eight interceptions — but he held on to the ball too long with the third-highest seconds per pass attempt rate and taking 45 sacks. Wilson’s depth of targets continues to decline as well — his 6.9 Yards-Per-Attempt rate last year was the lowest of his career. And then there is Fields who led the NFL in seconds per pass attempt. Former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith has his hands full as the new offensive coordinator. His schemes with the Falcons and previously as the OC for Tennessee are run-first with plenty of motion and play-action. Smith likes to use the middle of the field in the passing game, especially with his tight ends. But will this be a good fit with the risk-averse Wilson in the twilight of his career (and working for the veteran minimum this year? Only 13% of his passes last season were in the middle of the field. By the way, how much cognitive dissonance is required for Wilson dead-enders to be optimistic about his upcoming season in a run-heavy approach like the one in Seattle that initially spawned the “Let Russ Cook” fanaticism? Finally, there are the underlying cultural issues with this franchise. The players still love Tomlin — but in finishing 28th in the NFLPA’s postseason report card, the organization received Ds in Nutrition and in Travel while getting Fs in Ownership and the Locker room and an F- in Treatment of Families. The Seahawks Legion of Boom found Wilson to be phony before Payton concluded paying him $85 mill to play elsewhere was the preferred solution. How is he going to fit into this environment while issuing NDAs to teammates before they can socialize with him? And what if he loses the starting QB job to Fields? Then what? Maybe the Tomlin magic and a good defense will be enough for this team to overachieve once again now that a professional offensive coach is calling plays. On the other hand, the brewing situations underneath Tomlin’s management might finally boil over.Best of luck — Frank.

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Will the Real Robbie Ray (for 2024) Please Stand Up?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

While there is a logjam in the National League wildcard race, the San Francisco Giants went into the final day in July only five games behind Arizona San Diego for the third and final wildcard spot. Don’t count manager Bob Melvin’s team out quite yet as they have endured several injuries this season. They may have one of the best starting rotations in baseball for the stretch run in the next two months. Logan Webb is steady and Blake Snell seems to have captured his outstanding form as he usually does midseason. Yet it was the return of Robbie Ray from Tommy John surgery that should have the San Francisco faithful excited. In his first game pitching for the Giants last Wednesday, the left-hander settled down from a wobbly first inning to give up only one earned run in five innings in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. There were several highly encouraging takeaways from that performance. His command was good as he walked only two batters. The velocity on his four-seam fastball reached 95.2 miler per hour which was his highest mark since July of 2022. All three of his pitches played a part in his 22 whiffs. He got nine whiffs from his four-seamer, another six from his slider, and then seven from his curveball. The velocity on his slider was up three to four miles per hour from 2022, peaking at 90 mph against the Dodgers. He added a wrinkle to his curveball with knuckle-curve variation. Ray is a former Cy Young award winner. If that effort was his new floor after only pitching once last year before his arm injury, then the sky is the limit for him and the Giants moving forward this season. In his last full season in 2022 for Seattle, Ray had a 12-12 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Those numbers look even better in hindsight since the baseball was livelier that season. He won the American League Cy Young Award the previous year with a 13-7 record, a 2.84 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He led the league with 248 strikeouts in his 193 1/3 innings. Pitching so well after his extended absence from facing Major League hitting gave many (including us) that he was poised for another strong effort against the Oakland A’s in his second start of the season on Tuesday. Yet Ray gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings before getting yanked by Melvin. He gave up seven hits and walked three batters. His whiff rate dropped to only eleven. His four-seam fastball was still upstairs, yet it was the decline of his curveball that was most noticeable from his excellent effort against the Dodgers. He only threw six of his fifteen curveballs for strikes. Did he just have a bad start against the A’s, or was the initial performance against the Dodgers the outlier performance? Certainly, the Giants want to know. So do bettors. It seems like his command of his curveball is key. If that pitch is being thrown for strikes, then hitters cannot sit on his four-seam fastball. If is not hitting the zone, even Oakland can rough him up.Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/31/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Miami Marlins at 12:10 p.m. ET. Taj Bradley gets the ball for the Rays to pitch against Roddery Munoz for the Marlins. Tampa Bay is a -250 money-line favorite at BetMGM with the total set at 7.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 12:35 p.m. ET. Baltimore plays at home against Toronto with the Orioles tapping Grayson Rodriguez to face the Blue Jays’ Paolo Espino. The Blue Jays are a -225 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. Philadelphia is at home against New York with Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound for the Phillies to go against Nestor Cortes, Jr. for the Yankees. The Phillies are a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5 (all further odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Minnesota Twins travel to New York to play the Mets at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Twins turn to Pablo Lopez to challenge the Mets’ Luis Severino. Minnesota is a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 2:10 p.m. ET. Atlanta plays in Milwaukee with Chris Sale getting the start for the Braves to battle against Freddy Peralta for the Brewers. The Braves are a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. Kansas City is in Chicago to play the White Sox with the Royals sending out Brady Singer to duel against the White Sox’s Drew Thorpe. The Royals are a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Texas Rangers at 2:15 p.m. ET. Michael McGreevy takes the mound for the Cardinals to pitch against Andrew Heaney for the Rangers. St. Louis is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Washington Nationals at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks tap Zac Gallen to face the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore. Arizona is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners visit Boston to play the Red Sox at 4:10 p.m. ET. George Kirby takes the ball for the Mariners to battle Bryan Bello for the Red Sox. Seattle is a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Reds send out Nick Loyola to challenge the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Cincinnati is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Houston Astros host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 8:10 p.m. ET. Framber Valdez takes the hill for the Astros to duel against Martin Perez for the Pirates. Houston is a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Padres turn to Dylan Cease to face the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw. San Diego is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:38 p.m. ET. Davis Daniel gets the ball for the Angels to challenge Kyle Freeland for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -140 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants host the Oakland A’s at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Giants tap Logan Webb to pitch against the A’s Ross Stripling. San Francisco is a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jul 30, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 p.m. ET. Gavin Williams gets the ball for the Guardians to face a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Tigers. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles tap Corbin Burnes to take the mound to pitch against the Blue Jays’ Chris Bassitt. Baltimore is a -198 money-line favorite with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Philadelphia Phillies play at home against the New York Yankees at 6:40 p.m. ET. Aaron Nola gets sent out to the hill for the Phillies to go against Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. Philadelphia is a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Rays turn to Jeffrey Springs to make his season debut coming off the injured list to challenge the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. Tampa Bay is a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. Chicago plays in Cincinnati with Justin Steele getting the starting assignment for the Cubs to battle a starting pitcher for the Reds yet to be determined. The Cubs are a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. New York hosts Minnesota with the Mets turning to Sean Manaea to duel against the Twins’ David Festa. The Mets are a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Seattle is in Boston with Luis Castillo taking the mound for the Mariners to face the recently acquired James Paxton for the Red Sox. The Mariners are a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Texas Rangers visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. The Rangers send out Max Scherzer to pitch against the Cardinals’ Lance Lynn. Texas is a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.Three ML games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. Kansas City plays in Chicago with Michael Wacha getting the start for the Royals to go against Jonathan Cannon for the White Sox. The Royals are a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta is in Milwaukee with neither the Braves nor the Brewers yet to declare their starting pitchers for that game. Houston plays at home against Pittsburgh with the Astros tapping Hunter Brown to duel against a Pirates’ starting pitcher yet to be named.The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:38 p.m. ET. Griffin Canning gets the ball for the Angels to challenge Cal Quantrill for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. Arizona hosts Washington with the Diamondbacks turning to Ryne Nelson to battle the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The Diamondbacks are a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Los Angeles is in San Diego with Tyler Glasnow taking the hill for the Dodgers to face Matt Waldron for the Padres. The Dodgers are a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Giants send out Robbie Ray to make his second start of the season against the A’s J.P. Sears. San Francisco is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.

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Ranking the Top 5 Quarterbacks in the NFL

by Vegas Writer

Monday, Jul 29, 2024

As NFL training camps are in full swing now, I started thinking about who my TOP 5 QUARTERBACKS are heading into the regular season. And while it pains me to leave Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott off the list, he didn't make the list. Nor did the Miami Dolphins' newest high-priced signal-caller, Tua Tagovailoa, or Houston Texans youngster C.J. Stroud.But those three would have fallen somewhere in the next three.Anyhoo, if you're looking to make some season-wide wagers, some sort of quarterback future prop wagers, here are my top five NFL quarterbacks:5. AARON RODGERS: This one might cause a little bit of controversy, but he's the guy who could very well take home the MVP award this season, New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Yes, he's in his 40s. Yes, he's coming off an Achilles injury. Yes, he plays for the, ahem, New York Jets. But we're talking about a four-time MVP Super Bowl champion and a guy who knows how to get it done. He does his best work too, when he has a chip on his shoulder. Rodgers not only has the resume to back up what I'm saying, but he is in a great situation with the Jets. He's got new protection as the Jets have replaced 60% of their offensive line. Rodgers was ranked the number one quarterback in the NFL when throwing from a clean pocket over the past three seasons in Green Bay. Fact is, when he has the protection, he performs well. He has a great defense on the other side, he's got a great complement of weapons, and he's got Nathaniel Hackett. When Hackett and Rodgers were in the same system, the veteran was able to get MVP awards.4. JOSH ALLEN: This one also might be a bit controversial, because you have people who think he's fallen from his star, and others who believe he should be higher. I have Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen at number four. We know how productive Allen is. He is a great passer. He's got a huge arm. We know how dangerous he can be on the move. He ranked third in QBR and passing touchdowns outside of the pocket last season, while accounting for 74% of his team's net yards. He cannot go any higher than four because of the lack of postseason success. I am waiting for him to break through and get to the Super Bowl. And not only that, the turnover numbers are too glaring for me, 78 interceptions and 59 fumbles since 2018 again. Those mistakes, and the fact that he hasn't broken through, puts him at number four for me.3. JOE BURROW: Heading to Cincinnati for number three is Joe Burrow. This might be a little controversial because I know there are people who want to see Allen ahead of the Bengals' gun-slinger. People tend to knock Burrow for his injuries, and I understand that, because he does constantly deal with injuries. He's dealt with a calf strain and wrist injuries this past season, but when he is healthy, you cannot debate me that Burrow is an unbelievable quarterback. His career completion percentage of 68% is the highest in NFL history through a player's first four seasons. If Burrow can stay healthy, the Bengals will always be a threat in the AFC.2. LAMAR JACKSON: Here is someone with the potential of being No. 1, but it'll be hard to supplant who's already there. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is No. 2 for me. The two-time MVP is the youngest two-time MVP award winner since the merger. He's unbelievable during the regular season. His career regular season winning percentage of .753 is almost identical to Tom Brady's, which was .754. He is a dynamic dual threat. We know what Jackson can do with his legs, we know what he can do with his arms, but he can't be any higher than because of the postseason. I've watched this guy become an incredible leader, and I watched him get to the AFC Championship game last season. But there's still some stuff left to be desired when it comes to Jackson and until he and the Ravens dethrone the Chiefs, he stays at No. 2.1. PATRICK MAHOMES: Is there any doubt about this? The No. 1 quarterback in the league coming into this season is certainly Kansas City Chiefs leader Patrick Mahomes. He is one of three players in NFL history with three Super Bowls and two MVPs. Tom Brady and Joe Montana, are the other two and they needed 11 and 12 years to get it done, respectively. Mahomes has done it in seven years, and during that span, 219 touchdown passes. 28,424 passing yards. Perspective, that's 284.24 football fields of passing yards. That's six miles of passing yards. Get the point?

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 07/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jul 29, 2024

The Monday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 12 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of their doubleheader at 3:05 p.m. ET. The recently acquired Zach Eflin makes his first start for the Orioles after getting traded by Tampa Bay against Yariel Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Baltimore is a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 9 (all odds from DraftKings). The second game of their doubleheader starts at 6:05 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays call back up Bowden Francis from the minor leagues to pitch against a starting pitcher for the AL East first-place Orioles' starting pitcher yet to be named. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Cleveland travels to Detroit with Tanner Bibee taking the ball for the Guardians to face Jack Flaherty for the Tigers. The AL Central's first-place Guardians are a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Philadelphia plays at home against New York with the NL East's first-place squad tapping Zack Wheeler to battle against a Yankees pitcher yet to be determined. Three MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. New York is at home against Minnesota with Jose Quintana taking the mound for the Mets to go against Simeon Woods Richardson for the Twins. The Mets are a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Boston hosts Seattle with the Red Sox turning to Nick Pivetta to challenge the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. The Red Sox are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Chicago plays at Cincinnati with the Cubs sending out Jameson Taillon to battle the Reds’ Carson Spiers. The Cubs are a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Texas Rangers are in St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. Nathan Eovaldi gets the ball for the Rangers to duel against Andrew Pallante for the Cardinals. Texas is a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. Kansas City visits Chicago, with the Royals turning to Alex Marsh to face the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. The Royals are a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Milwaukee plays at home against Atlanta, with Colin Rea getting the ball for the Brewers to pitch against Grant Holmes getting tapped out of the bullpen to make his first start of the season for the Braves. The Brewers are a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Pittsburgh plays in Houston with the Pirates turning to Paul Skenes to challenge the Astros’ Jake Bloss. The Pirates are a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the Washington Nationals to close the MLB card at 9:40 p.m. ET. Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks to battle against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals. Arizona is a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.

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Copa Libertadores Futures 2024 (Knockout Rounds)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The 2024 Copa Libertadores group stage has ended and there are plenty of familiar faces left in this competition who always make deep runs in this tournament, but there have also been a few surprise teams making it out of the group stage as well. Now with the Round of 16 matches set and ready to begin on August 13, it is time to see who still has the best chance of making a deep run to the final to lift the trophy. To Win Outright Flamengo +350: Flamengo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the best chance to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo was picked as the team with the best chance to win in a Copa Libertadores article prior to the group stage starting, and they still have a very good chance at winning this competition as they have one of the more talented squads in all of South America. The price has not changed from +350 prior to the 2024 edition of the competition starting. Flamengo is currently one of the top teams in the Brasileirao this season, fighting for the title, and this is a competition they are going to be focused on winning as it is the most desired trophy by these bigger clubs. Flamengo has not won many trophies recently so motivation is going to be high in this tournament, and this is a competition they have had a lot of success in over recent years. They have appeared in the Final in 2 of the last 3 seasons, winning the trophy just 2 seasons ago, and they have won the competition twice in the last 5 seasons as well. Flamengo always makes a deep run in this tournament and with the talent they have in their squad, they are still the best team in the competition this season. There is value at this price for Flamengo to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +400: Palmeiras is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is another club that has had a lot of success in this tournament in recent years, making 2 appearances in the Final over the last 4 seasons and winning both times, but they have not made an appearance in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 2 seasons and their team is not as strong this season. They have won the Brasileirao Title the last 2 straight seasons, but they have lost some of their talent this year and have struggled in the league. They still topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16. They will have to face another club from Brasil in their first match, playing against Botafogo, and Botafogo has been a very good team over the last 2 seasons. Botafogo was leading the title race last season before allowing Palmeiras back in it late in the year, and Botafogo is right at the top of the table in the Brasileirao once again this season. They have also won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Palmeiras over the last 2 seasons, keeping them from scoring a goal in 2 of those matches as well. This is not a great price for a Palmeiras side that has a very tough opponent right in the Round of 16 as this team could see an early exit with their squad losing talent this year as well. Even if they do get by Botafogo, Palmeiras does not have the best squad in this competition and there are other teams that could give them trouble deeper in the tournament. Palmeiras is not the best option here to lift the trophy this season.  River Plate +450: River Plate is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is regarded as the best team in Argentina and they are definitely one of the bigger clubs with a very intimidating stadium to play in, but the results simply have not been there in any of their competitions this season to show that this is even the best team in Argentina. They struggled in the 1st phase of their domestic season as they barely topped the table by 1 point in the Copa de la Liga, but they also fizzled out in the 1st round of the playoffs, losing to the eventual champions Estudiantes. They were the clear favorite to win the LPF title this season as well, but they have struggled more in this 2nd phase of the season as they are currently sitting in 12th place after 7 matches this season in their own league table. They topped their group in the group stage of this competition at 5-1-0, but they were in a much weaker group with no clubs from Brasil or Argentina. They are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16 either as they have to face Talleres who is currently in 2nd place in the league table and has been one of the better teams in Argentina all year. River Plate has struggled against Talleres as well, losing 4 of their last 6 meetings with just 1 win in that span. River Plate does not have the best squad in this tournament so even if they get past Talleres in the first round, they are going to run into a better team eventually. They have not shown in their league matches this season either that they can dominate a stronger squad from their own league. There has only been 1 club from Argentina in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 4 seasons which was Boca Juniors last season and River Plate has not made an appearance there since 2019 when they were the runner up. They have only won the competition once in the last 8 seasons and that was back in 2018, but this is not going to be their year as they do not have the squad to do it. There is no real value in River Plate to win the competition this season.  Fluminense +700: Fluminense is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they did not play in a very strong group as there were no other clubs from Brasil or Argentina, the 2 strongest leagues in South America. They have also fallen completely out of form since the group stage and have struggled to get points in their own domestic league. Fluminense are actually the defending champions from last season as they beat Boca Juniors in the Final, but this is nowhere near the same quality team that had such a great season all around last year. They also have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 who they have struggled with a lot over the years. They will see Gremio in the Round of 16 and Gremio has not been a dominant team this season as they also lost some talent from last year, but they have been a wild card with their performances and they tend to dominate this Fluminense side. Gremio has won the last 7 straight meetings with Fluminense and Fluminense has failed to score a goal in 5 of those 7 matches. There is a very good chance that the defending champions go down in the Round of 16 but even if they do get past Gremio, they do not have the talent or depth in their squad to make a deep run in this competition. Even their win in this competition last season was the first time they have been back to the finals in 15 seasons. There is no value in Fluminense to win this competition and repeat as the champions.  Atlético Mineiro +800: Atlético Mineiro is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. They topped their group during the group stage at 5-0-1 and have been a very dominant team in this competition, but they have been starting to fall out of form recently in their domestic league. They recently hired a new manager and they have been starting to improve once again after a stretch of poor form, but they have still been very inconsistent in their matches. They have a very good squad with a lot of talent, but it has not been enough in this competition in recent years. They have struggled to get to the Final, making no appearances in the last 10 straight seasons, and they have even struggled to win the Brasileirao Title consistently. They have an easier matchup in the Round of 16, but they are still facing a club from Argentina that plays in a very strong league, and San Lorenzo also has a very good defense that can cause problems for this Atletico Mineiro attack. Even if Atletico Mineiro makes it past them, they will eventually run into a stronger team that takes them out as they usually go out before they can get to the Final. There are better teams in the tournament this year and Atletico Mineiro will fall short once again. There is no value in them to win this competition this season.  Botafogo +900: Botafogo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo does not have a history of going deep into this competition in recent years, but they have been improving a lot over the last 2 seasons. Last season, they were a huge threat in the Brasileirao all year as they led the table with a 10+ point lead for most of the season before collapsing in the final weeks, but they are back on top this season with one of the better teams in Brasil. They are going to be focused on going deep into this competition. They have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 as they are taking on Palmeiras who is one of the favorites to win the tournament, but Palmeiras has not been as good as their teams in previous years and Botafogo has actually beaten them twice in 3 matches over the last 2 seasons. Palmeiras has failed to score in 2 of those 3 meetings and Botafogo has a very good defense that is one of the best in Brasil. Botafogo has been steadily improving over the last few seasons and with the experience they gained from being one of the better teams in Brasil last year, they can draw from that in this competition and make a deep run. They have the talent in their squad and they have the defense to go far which will be very important in a competition like this. Botafogo is a true dark horse to win this competition this season, there is value in them to win at this price.  RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams in this competition and some that were not mentioned here, but in reality this competition has been dominated by a select few teams over the last few years so there is not going to be much room for these smaller clubs from weaker South American leagues to go deep. This competition has been dominated by clubs from Brasil and Argentina over the last few years as there has not been a club from another country in the last 7 straight Copa Libertadores Finals, and 9 of the 14 teams that have appeared in those finals have been from Brasil as well. Brasil is still the strongest league in all of South America with plenty of talented teams this year and it is very likely that the winner of this competition will come from the Brasileirao as they have in the last 5 straight Copa Libertadores Finals. Flamengo is still the best team in this competition and will be focused on winning trophies this year after falling short the last few seasons. Flamengo at +350 has value here as they are the most likely team to win the tournament this season, but Botafogo at +900 is also a very good dark horse as they have a great defense and will be a threat deep in the tournament. 

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Around The Horn

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

Will the Philadelphia 76ers and their major roster remake finally have the chops to challenge the Boston Celtics and make a serious, deep run in the East next spring?Few teams promise so much and then deliver so little, but the arrival of a mandatory third star and the addition of serious rotation depth just might be the combination that finally turns the tide.This past season another injury to former MVP Joel Embiid buried Philadelphia into the Play-In which led to a first-round grinder of a first-round 6-game series loss to the Knicks, but that’s now officially yesterday’s news to a team that pilfered Paul George from the sleeping LA Clippers in the off-season. Assuming a somewhat healthy Embiid and a still-improving Tyrese Maxey, a Philly with George enables the Sixers to officially join an Eastern Conference Big Four along with Boston, New York and Milwaukee.Boston remains the No. 1 choice of oddsmakers at +310 to win the title, but Philly (+800) and the Knicks (+900) are neck-and-neck, with those numbers reversed in some books.Besides George, the 76ers have recast their bench with the addition of a handful of 30-something veterans – Caleb Martin. Kyle Lowry, Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Eric Gordon. But in the end it will come down to how quickly Embiid, George and Maxey can play together, and whether Embiid is healthy next April, May and (cross your fingers) June.Lucky lottery winnerIt’s not quite the same as winning hundreds of millions on Power Ball, but a Maryland woman was still able to cash $576,900 on a bizarre play. The retired teacher bought 25 tickets with the same 5-digit combination – and hit on it.  There were 26 winning tickets, overall (another person also won), so each ticket paid $23,076. The odds of hitting that were about 1 in 500,000, but the payoff was capped at 600,000, which limited the winnings (and also made her strategy of buying multiple tickets foolhardy).Chiefs support sports betting initiativeIt wasn’t all that long ago that pro sports teams were actually spending money on lobbyists to prevent the legalization of sports betting. Now leagues and teams see money to be made from wagering and want as big a piece of the pie as possible. Thus, it was hardly a surprise recently when the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs threw their support behind a movement to add a question on the November ballot that would legalize sports wagering in Missouri. Backers of the initiative seem to have more than enough signatures to get on the ballot, but as with other grass roots referenda, nothing is guaranteed when  it comes to state governments. The Cardinals, Blues and Royals also back the move. Sports betting has not yet been approved in 12 states, including Missouri.Caitlin Clark effect on gamblingAdd a dramatic increase in sports betting to Caitlin Clark’s WNBA impact. The amount of wagering on WNBA games and props (many, obviously, involving Clark) has increased three-fold over 2023. BetMGM reported that Clark hadfive times as many prop bets as any other WNBA player. Clark remains a heavy (-1200) favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, although her rival Angel Reese (+650) has closed the gap a bit.Harris making a moveSpeaking of a tightening race, The PredictIt betting site has been turned on its head with the departure of Joe Biden and the arrival of Kamala Harris as Donald Trump’s opponent. The site is constantly changing, but Trump held a dominating lead in the wake of Biden disastrous debate performance, but with Harris in the race and Democrats energized, the numbers are nearly even – reflecting the results of several national polls.Competitive eater passes awayThe bizarre world of competitive eating got attention when longtime hot dog-eating champ Joey Chestnut was banned from Nathan’s annual July 4 competition in an endorsement squabble. Another shoe dropped in mid-July when a competitive eater died while eating during a live podcast. An autopsy on the 24-year-old Chinese woman showed that her stomach was “deformed” and filled with undigested food. Competitive eating is most popular in the United States, Canada and Japan. China has placed some regulations on the activity.

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Copa Sudamericana Futures 2024 (Knockout Rounds)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The 2024 Copa Sudamericana group stage has ended and the Round of 16 is now set after the 2nd place finishers in the group stage played the 3rd place finishers from Copa Libertadores to earn a spot in this knockout round. Unlike Copa Libertadores, this tournament has not been dominated by clubs from Brasil and Argentina in recent years, and there is not a real dominant team in this competition making the tournament much more open for anyone to win. The Round of 16 will be kicking off on August 14 so it is time to see who has the best chance of lifting the Copa Sudamericana trophy this season.  To Win Outright Boca Juniors +600 and Cruzeiro +700: Boca Juniors and Cruzeiro are the 2 biggest favorites respectively to win this competition according to the oddsmakers. These two will actually face each other in the Round of 16 though so right away one of these clubs will be taken off the board after this round. These two may be the favorites in this tournament, but they are not the best teams in this competition at all. Boca Juniors has been struggling in their own domestic and are currently sitting in the bottom half of the table after 6 matches. They were not great in the Copa Sudamericana group stage either as they only finished 2nd in their group at 3-2-1 and had to play in the play-off round to make it to this Round of 16. Cruzeiro has been playing much better in their domestic league as they are currently sitting in the top 5 and have been in better form recently, but they have also been a more home dominant team which is not going to serve them well in this competition. They topped their group in the Copa Sudamericana group stage, but they were only 3-3-0 in their 6 matches and struggled to win matches against teams from weaker domestic leagues. There is too much liability here to take either of these clubs as one will be out by the end of the Round of 16, and neither team really has the squad to make a deep run in this competition either. There is not a lot of value in either of these clubs to win this competition this season.  Athletico Paranaense +900 and Fortaleza +900: Athletico PR and Fortaleza are both listed as the next 2 teams with the best chance at winning this competition according to the oddsmakers. Athletico PR had a great start to the season as they have one of the best defenses in the Brasileirao which they can lean on in this competition. They were one of the better teams to start the season as they were in such great form, but they have fallen out of form since then and have been struggling more to win matches recently. They have been slipping more in the Brasileirao recently and they did not even top their group in the Copa Sudamericana group stage. They only finished in 2nd place at 4-0-2 and they needed to play in the play-off just to make it to this round. They also finished 2nd in a much weaker group that did not have any teams from stronger leagues in South America. Fortaleza is a team that did win their group in the group stage at 4-1-1, but they have also been a very inconsistent team in their own domestic league. They are currently sitting in the top 4 of the Brasileirao as they have been in a run of great form recently, but that is not going to hold up long. They have also struggled a lot more in their away matches and they are not a team with a very strong attack. Both of these clubs are being overvalued in this competition due to being in the Brasileirao, but teams from the Brasileirao have not done well in this competition over the last few years as there are many good teams from other countries who dominate their domestic leagues and can compete with these weaker Brasilian clubs. There is not a lot of value in these two to win this competition this year. Racing Club +1200: Racing Club is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value. They have been one of the better teams in Argentina this season and they are a real threat to win the LPF Title. They have a very strong home advantage as they rarely allow goals at home and have been averaging over 3 goals scored per match there. They even finished the Copa Sudamericana group stage at the top of their group at 5-0-1 which was the best record of any teams in the group stage of the competition, and they scored 14 goals in their 6 matches while allowing just 3 goals, even playing in a group with RB Bragantino from Brasil. Racing Club has the defense to make a deep run here as they are not going to concede many goals in the competition, but they also have an attack that can win them matches if need be. They are a very dangerous team in Argentina right now and that will carry over into this competition as they will be very focused on winning this. They have one of the best squads in the whole tournament and will be a big threat. There is a lot of value in Racing Club to win this competition at this price.  LDU Quito +1600: LDU Quito is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value. LDU Quito actually started the group stage in Copa Libertadores and ended up finishing in 3rd place so they dropped down to this competition and had to play in the play-off to get here. They beat Always Ready 4-3 on aggregate to get to this Round of 16, but LDU Quito is actually the defending champion of this competition. They won Copa Sudamericana last season and earned a Copa Libertadores spot from that, but now they find themselves back in this competition and will be pushing to repeat as champions. They have a very good defense that took them far in this competition last season and they know what needs to be done to win this tournament so they will use that experience here. Not only are they the defending champions, but they are also a club from Ecuador and the Copa Sudamericana champion has actually come from Ecuador in the last 2 as well as 3 of the last 5 seasons. LDU Quito is not the best team in this competition this year, but their experience will take them a long way and they are definitely going to be a tough out for any team they go up against. There is some good value in LDU Quito at this price to repeat as champions this season. Independiente Medellín +3300: Independiente Medellín is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value.They finished the group stage at the top of their group at 4-1-1, scoring 16 goals in those 6 matches while allowing 7 goals. They have a very potent attack that can carry them far into this tournament as they are a team that never lays down when behind. They have struggled in their own domestic league recently, but they have also turned their focus more to this competition as this is the trophy they want to win. They do not have the best squad in this tournament and their defense will struggle to keep clean sheets in this competition, but they have some potential as a long shot here since they have a very potent attack that will keep them in their matches. They also have a big advantage at home since they play at a very high altitude so that home advantage will carry them deep into this tournament as opponents will struggle when they travel there. They also have a weaker opponent in the Round of 16 which will give them a better chance to advance to the quarters. Independiente Medellín has a lot of value at this price to be a long shot winner of this competition considering how they have the altitude advantage at home and there is not a real dominant team in this competition.  RecommendationCopa Sudamericana usually has much weaker teams than Copa Libertadores which really makes the field more open to big underdogs going on a run and winning the whole thing. There are 5 clubs from Brasil in the top 6 teams listed in the odds for this tournament, but only 1 club from Brasil has won this competition in the last 5 seasons and the clubs from Brasil that usually play in this are not the strongest ones from the Brasileirao. Racing Club at +1200 has the most value of all the teams as they do have one of the better teams in the competition and are very undervalued here. LDU Quito at +1600 has a lot of value as a dark horse since they are the defending champions of the competition, and Independiente Medellin at +3300 has some value as a long shot here.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The Sunday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Tampa Bay to play the Rays on the Roku Channel at 11:35 a.m. ET. Hunter Greene takes the mound for the Reds to face a starting pitcher for the Rays yet to be named. Cincinnati is a -130 money-line road favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. Philadelphia hosts Cleveland with the Phillies tapping Kolby Allard to pitch against the Guardians’ Xzavion Curry. The Phillies are a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Baltimore plays at home against San Diego with Albert Suarez taking the hill for the Orioles to go against Randy Vasquez for the Padres. The Orioles are a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Texas Rangers play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 1:37 p.m. ET. The Rangers send out Jon Gray to battle against the Blue Jays Jose Berrios. Texas is a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. Minnesota is in Detroit with Bailey Ober getting the assignment for the Twins to face a starting pitcher yet to be determined. The Twins are a -185 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8. New York is at home against Atlanta with the Mets turning to David Peterson to battle against the Braves Reynaldo Lopez. The Mets are a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Four MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. Seattle visits Chicago with the Mariners sending out Bryce Miller to duel against the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. The Mariners are a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.Milwaukee hosts Miami with Tobias Myers getting the ball for the Brewers to face Kyle Tyler for the Marlins. The Brewers are a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Kansas City plays at home against Chicago with the Royals turning to Cole Ragans to face the Cubs’ Javier Assad. The Royals are a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Houston is at home against Los Angeles with Spencer Arrighetti taking the ball for the Astros to duel against River Ryan for the Dodgers. The Astros are a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Cardinals tap Miles Mikolas to go against the Nationals’ D.J. Herz. St.Louis is a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 4:05 p.m. ET. Jordan Hicks gets the ball for the Giants to duel against Austin Gomber for the Rockies. San Francisco is a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 4:07 p.m. ET. The Angels turn to Jose Soriano to battle against a starting pitcher yet to be determined. Los Angeles is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 4:10 p.m. ET. Mitch Keller takes the hill for the Pirates to face a Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher yet to be named. Pittsburgh is a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN features the Boston Red Sox hosting the New York Yankees at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox tap Tanner Houck to battle against the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon. Boston is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5.Week 8 in the Canadian Football League concludes with one game. The Edmonton Elks play at home against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on the CBS Sports Network at 7:00 p.m. ET. The Elks are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5.

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July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Jul 27, 2024

July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of July, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Brady Singer – Kansas City Royals Brady Singer has been considered an elite talent for the Royals since being a 1st round pick in 2018. With Kansas City charging towards a playoff spot this season, Singer has put together his most complete campaign. His ERA is just 2.82 in 21 starts. His FIP is 3.81 however and the biggest difference in his numbers this season has been stranding over 83 percent of his baserunners compared to his career average of just over 72 percent. In what has been an outstanding month of July for Singer, he has stranded over 90 percent of his baserunners to produce a 1.88 ERA even with a 3.39 FIP and a 3.1 BB/9. Singer doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers and he has an extreme disparity between his home and road splits, as many Royals have this season with a great home record for Kansas City. After strong results in April and May, Singer fell back a bit in June and the deeper numbers suggest his July shouldn’t have been much different than his average results in June. Singer is likely to remain a slightly above average option for the Royals, but he may get overpriced, particularly in his home starts following the fortunate run he has been on in recent weeks.   Kutter Crawford – Boston Red Sox With a 6-8 record in just over 129 innings last season Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA and a 3.83 FIP last season. In now 119 innings in 2024 Crawford has a 3.33 ERA but with a 4.24 FIP that is nearly a half-run higher than he had last season. His K/9 is lower this season while his BB/9 and HR/9 rates are higher, yet he has allowed fewer runs. Crawford has enjoyed an exceptionally charmed month of July with a 2.52 ERA but a 5.14 FIP as he has allowed six home runs in 25 innings but has kept the damage to a minimum allowing only seven earned runs with five solo shots and one two-run home run allowed. Crawford has just a 6.1 K/9 in July and he has not allowed a single baserunner to score in those 25 innings, a truly remarkable run that obviously won’t last much longer. Crawford has made three of those four starts in July on the road and his season splits are worse at home. Crawford may be worth looking to fade in upcoming Fenway Park outings as he isn’t pitching as well as his recent numbers imply.  Dean Kremer – Baltimore Orioles Going 0-7 in 13 starts for Baltimore in 2021 wasn’t a great sign for Dean Kremer’s future but he had a solid 2022 season as Baltimore started to turn the corner and then last season, he was a key piece of the rotation making 32 starts for the AL East victors. Kremer’s season 2024 season was derailed with an injury in late May, and he recently returned in July, providing four acceptable starts this month, posting three decent outings and one terrible outing for a 4.74 ERA. He lacks a quality start since his return and the Baltimore bullpen has not been as sharp as it was last season. Kremer has a 5.99 FIP since his return and he has walked 10 batters in 19 innings. Ultimately Kremer hasn’t looked like the same pitcher in 2024 as he did the past two seasons, and the Orioles should be considering what his role should be moving forward with the trade deadline nearing. With Baltimore’s great record, Kremer will still command favorite pricing in most matchups, but he has been a worse than average pitcher this season, particularly at home where he owns a 6.16 ERA. August has historically been Kremer’s best month in his career splits, but given his disjointed 2024 season, that isn’t likely to prove true this season.  Jose Soriano – Los Angeles Angels Left for dead with numerous injuries and a terrible stretch of results in April and May, the Angels have produced a winning record since June 1. The scoring numbers don’t sync with that record however, but the Angels have been competitive in division games and could prove to be a spoiler in the tight AL West race. Starting pitching has been an unexpected strength for the Angels and Jose Soriano has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 95 innings. His K/9 has fallen off a cliff compared to his numbers last season as a reliever, but he has been blessed with a .255 BABIP so far in his 2024 season. Soriano is an elite groundball producer with an over 59 percent rate this season, featuring a big jump from last season which has helped to keep his HR/9 very low in 2024. Soriano has not pitched particularly well in Anaheim however and nearly two thirds of his innings at this point in the season have been in road venues. In July Soriano has a 4.51 FIP despite a 3.57 ERA and his K/9 is below 6.8. His groundball rare has fallen and three of his four starts in July have been road starts, including games vs. Oakland and Chicago, plus a start in a favorable environment in Seattle. Soriano is still pitching for a bad team and while his 3.51 ERA looks nice, his weak strikeout potential and higher than average walk risk should make him unappealing to support in most pairings moving forward.   

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