Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Ness Notes: Tuesday, Dec 15

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."NFL Week 14 recap: I think we all have a tendency to bemoan our "bad beats," while taking for granted our "lucky wins." That being said, I don't remember an NFL season (this is my 37th as a professional handicapper) with more 'fantastic finishes' and while I've had my share of 'bad beats' in 2020, I sure got a 'lucky' win last night with the Ravens. The Ravens and Browns will forever remain a great rivalry, as Art Modell moved the Browns out of Cleveland prior to the 1996 season to become the Baltimore Ravens, while the Cleveland franchise, after a three-year hiatus, returned in 1999 retaining the Browns name and history. Last night's game was a classic, with the Ravens prevailing 47-42. Baltimore entered the fourth quarter leading 34-20 but two lead changes and then a tie at 42-all with just 1:04 left, set up a bizzaro ending. I'll leave it at that, as you either watched it live or in replays via your cable outlet or device of choice. When all the 'dust' from Week 14 had settled, home teams were just 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS (San Francisco again played a 'home game in Glendale, making it a neutral-site contest), while home dogs checked in at 3-6 and 4-5 ATS. The 16 contests averaged 48.0 PPG but just FIVE games went over the total, meaning 11 stayed under. Doing the math, home teams are 102-103-2 (.498) SU and 98-106-2 (48.0%) ATS. NFL totals have seen 98 overs, 105 unders and five pushes.We can always seem to count on the Jets for consistency and their 40-3 loss at Seattle gives them a franchise-record 13 straight losses (4-9 ATS). However, the Jets had better not slip up and win a game, because the Jags are 'right on their tail,' losing for the 12th straight time (Jags beat the Colts 27-20 in Week 1) in a 31-10 home loss to the Titans (Jags are 6-7 ATS). Speaking of ATS records, the Cowboys are an NFL-worst 3-10, while the Dolphins are an NFL-best at 10-3. Note that no other team is better than 8-5 ATS.Once upon a time the Steelers were 11-0 but a second straight loss (26-15 at Buffalo on SNF) has allowed the defending champion Chiefs to take over the NFL's best record (and No. 1 seed in the AFC) at 12-1. The Chiefs ended the 2019 regular season on a six-game winning streak and then won three postseason games on their way to winning the Super Bowl. Throw in 2020's 12-1 record and KC is a pretty 'sweet' 21-1 SU over its last 22 games. However, after going 8-0-1 ATS in 2019's finishing run of NINE straight wins, the 2020 Chiefs are just 6-7 ATS in going 12-1, the same point spread mark as the 1-12 Jags (see above). Need a more stark reminder that the NFL point spread is "the great equalizer?"The Saints entered Sunday with the NFL's longest-active winning streak (NINE in a row) but lost 24-21 at Philadelphia, as Jalen Hurts made his first NFL start. Hurts was 17 of 30 for 167 yards (one TD and zero INTs), while rushing for 106 yards on 5.9 YPC. Can you say Lamar Jackson? Is the "Wentz era" over in Philly? Coupled with Green Bay's less than impressive 31-24 win at Detroit, the Saints loss dropped them to 10-3 and tied with the Packers for the NFC's best record. However, with the Packers having won in New Orleans in Week 3 (37-30), Green Bay currently owns the NFC's No. 1 seed.NFL Week 15 kicks off on Thursday (Chargers at Raiders) plus also has two Saturday games, with the Bills at the Broncos and the Panthers at the Packers. I'll move my NFL preview to Thursday and my CFB preview to Friday. CFB updates from Monday: Oregon will replace Washington as the Pac-12 North representative in the conference championship football game on Friday. It was determined the Huskies would be unable to field the 53 scholarship players needed to play because of positive cases for COVID-19 and the related contact-tracing protocols. The Huskies were also below the required number for a specific position group. 3-2 Oregon will square off against 5-0 USC which moved up to No. 13 in the latest AP poll at the LA Memorial Coliseum (USC's home field). Another major development came with the NCAA Football Oversight Committee announcing Monday that Football Bowl Subdivision teams will be able to replace canceled bowl games after Dec 19 .These matchups must replace a previously scheduled bowl game and will have to feature teams from the originally contracted conferences AND these contests will have to be played prior to the conclusion of the calendar year. I'll comment on these developments plus the new CFP standings (which come out tonight) in Wednesday's Notes.The new college basketball AP poll came out Monday afternoon and the top-5 remained the same. No. 1 Gonzaga (54 first-place votes) and No. 2 Baylor (7) have been 1-2 in each of the four polls this season. The Bulldogs are 3-0 and haven't played since Dec 2, having had FIVE games postponed or canceled due to COVID-19 protocols. Gonzaga is scheduled to face No. 3 Iowa in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, this coming Saturday. Iowa is 6-0 and the owners of one first-place vote. The Bears announced last Saturday that they would pause team activities as well and are also scheduled to visit Kansas State this coming Saturday. 6-0 Michigan St is No. 4 and 6-1 Kansas is No. 5 (lone loss is to No. 1 Gonzaga).No. 6 Illinois fell to 13th after losing at Missouri with that Tigers win catapulting them into the top-25 at No. 16. Missouri was last ranked back in the 203-14 season. Joining the Tigers as 'newbies' to this week's top-25 are 5-0 Clemson at No. 24 and 6-0 Michigan at No. 25. The Wolverines were No. 25 preseason poll but dropped out in the first regular season poll (Nov 30) but I guess a 6-0 start gets them "back to where they started." Duke is just 2-2 and is down at No. 21 (was No. 10) and 4-2 North Carolina is ranked 22nd, down from No. 16 There were no Monday games between ranked opponents (higher ranked teams are 9-5 SU but 6-8 ATS) but No. 9 Creighton hosted Marquette and No. 19 Rutgers opened Big Ten play with a game at Maryland. The Bluejays lost 89-84 at home, while the Scarlet Knights won 74-60. Both winning teams had HUGE second halves as Marquette outscored Creighton 54-40 and Seton Hall outscored Maryland 47-32. There are again no games between ranked opponents on Tuesday, although there are FIVE games featuring a ranked team vs an unranked opponent. No. 10 Tennessee (2-0) is home to 4-1 Appalachian St and is favored by 18 1/2 points. No. 12 Wisconsin (4-1) is home to 3-0 Loyola-Chicago and is favored by 8 1/2-points. No. 13 Illinois (4-2) is coming off a rollercoaster 11-day span (Dec 2-12) in which the Fighting Illini lost to No. 2 Baylor, won at then-No. 10 Duke and then lost their Braggin' Rights game at Missouri. Illinois welcomes 6-0 Minnesota to State Farm Center tonight as an eight-point favorite. No. 15 Florida St (3-0) hosts 2-2 Ga Tech and is favored by eight points plus No. 24 Clemson (5-0) has a real challenge playing at 4-1 Va Tech, where the Hokies are a one-point choice. Ranked teams enter Tuesday 84-11 (.884) SU but a much more modest 52-41-2 (55.9%) ATS vs unranked opponents.Good luck...Larry

NFL MVP Odds

by Doc's Sports

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

There are just three games left in the 2020-21 NFL regular season, and to say the MVP race has sorted itself out would be uncalled for. This year’s MVP race is a two-horse race with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers battling it out for the prestigious award. Should Mahomes win, it would be his second MVP in three seasons, while Rodgers would be winning the award for the third time in his career and first since 2014. Both quarterbacks have their teams primed for a deep playoff run and have gotten to this point in the season in a different fashion. Rodgers has been lights out all season long, while Mahomes, only recently (six games or so), has ascended to the top of the MVP odds boards. With three games left, Mahomes is the favorite, but I wouldn’t rule out Rodgers overtaking him if a few things break the right way. Beyond them, you’ll notice that six of the top seven favorites are quarterbacks, with Derrick Henry being the only other offensive player listed (+10000). Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt (+12500) and Los Angeles’, Aaron Donald (+15000) are the only defensive players to crack the top 12 at this late point in the season. The FavoritePatrick Mahomes, Quarterback, Kansas City ChiefsOdds: -275 It’s really not all that hard to believe that Mahomes has ascended to the top of the MVP race and is the odds-on favorite to capture his second MVP award in three years. Mahomes has the Chiefs in first place in the AFC and they look poised to make a deep playoff run and defend their Lombardy Trophy. Mahomes ranks first in passing yards by some 500 yards over second place (Deshaun Watson) and by 600 yards over the third-place guy (Aaron Rodgers – who we will talk about later on). Mahomes currently sits third in touchdown passes with 33 and second in QBR at 84.7. To say he’s been on fire lately would be a massive understatement. Over his last six games, Mahomes has tossed 17 touchdown passes. His team has gone 6-0 in that span, and it’s going to take a massive collapse by the Chiefs over the final three games against the Saints, Falcons and Chargers, for Mahomes to fall out of the MVP lead. However, if the guy below can put up even more gaudy numbers than he’s already done, it could be a closer final vote than we might think. The Contender: Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay PackersOdds: +200 I said it back in April after the draft, I said it again when I did my division previews and I’ll say it again for those of you who didn’t hear. Aaron Rodgers took the Packers’ decision to draft quarterback, Jordan Love as a sign of disrespect. I understand that the NFL is a business and it’s important to have an heir apparent at the quarterback position and that Love could learn plenty from a guy as gifted as Rodgers. However, Rodgers wanted reinforcements on the offensive side of the ball and never got it. I said that to begin the year, and Rodgers’s season has played out exactly how I thought it would. Through 13 games Rodgers has thrown just four interceptions this season and has 3,685 passing yards under his belt. He ranks first in touchdown passes with 39 and leads the NFL in QBR at 84.8. He’s essentially on an “EFF YOU” tour and has obliterated every defense he’s come up against to date; the Packers are averaging 273 passing yards per game and 31.5 points per game. The Packers are also in prime position to capture their division title and possibly finish with the best record in the NFC. The only possible knock on Rodgers’ MVP train is the fact that he comes up against some good defenses over the final three games in the Panthers, Titans and Bears. The Darkhorse Josh Allen, Quarterback, Buffalo Bills Odds: +2500 As far as Josh Allen goes, it may be too little too late for the product out of Wyoming. Allen had a blistering start to the year before fading in the middle quarter of the season, only to come on strong over his last five games. During that span, Allen has posted 12 touchdown passes and added three rushing touchdowns while leading his team to a 4-1 record. Allen has the Bills in prime position to capture their first division title since 1995 when the team won the wild-card round but lost in the division game to the Steelers. When you look at the individual statistics that Allen has put up, he doesn’t exactly jump off the page at you. Allen ranks sixth in passing yards (3,641), T-6 in passing touchdowns with 28, and sixth in QBR at 75.9. He’s also tossed nine interceptions which has him T19. Nonetheless, if you take Allen off the Bills, you have a Bills squad that is well below .500 regardless of who replaces Allen (Barkley, Webb, Fromm). You could argue that with the lack of explosive weapons the Bills have in comparison to the Packers and Chiefs, Allen is the MVP of the league. Unfortunately, I think it’s too little too late for the Bills pivot, but I’m sure he’d much rather take a deep playoff run than garner individual accolades.

Potential Nightmare Playoff Match Ups for NFL Top Seeds

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

Currently the top four seeds in the NFL playoff picture are pretty distinguished with the Chiefs and Steelers in the AFC mirrored by the Packers and Saints in the NFC. With four games left in the NFL regular season there is still plenty of time for seeds to move and teams to sneak into playoff contention. Only one first round bye is available this year and depending on who can secure it means that any of the top 4 teams could get pushed into a nightmare matchup in the Wild Card round. Current Playoff Seeding: AFC 1. Chiefs, 12-1 (1st Round Bye) 2. Steelers, 11-2 3. Bills, 10-34. Titans, 9-4 5. Browns, 9-4 6. Colts, 9-47. Dolphins, 8-5 NFC 1. Packers, 10-3 (1st Round Bye)2. Saints, 10-33. Rams, 9-4 4. Redskins, 6-75. Seahawks, 9-46. Buccaneers, 8-57. Cardinals, 7-6 Chiefs (SB Odds +180): The Chiefs are widely considered the best team in the NFL and seem to be utterly unstoppable on offense. They have a very intriguing match up with the Saints this weekend. Losing that game could prove costly with a number factors still in play in regards to a tie breaker for the top seed. Nightmare Matchup: Titans If the Colts win the AFC South, we could see Chiefs vs Titans in the first round if KC loses the #1 seed. Tennessee causes problems because their ability to put points on the board while chewing the clock at the same time. They have quietly surged into a top 3 scoring offense this season, only one place behind Kansas City. Steelers (SB Odds +1200): With their loss @ Buffalo on Sunday, the Steelers drop to the #2 seed in the AFC for the time being. Their remaining schedule is tough with the Colts and Browns still on the docket. After losing to the Washington Football team and Buffalo in back to back weeks, they have currently lost their first round bye. Nightmare matchup: DolphinsPittsburg’s inability to run the football is a major issue. The Dolphins have an outstanding secondary with Byron Jones and Xavien Howard to handle Big Ben and the Steelers one dimensional offense. Packers (SB Odds +700): The Packers have jumped the Saints to the #1 seed in the NFC. If they finish with the same record as the Saints, the Packers will win the tiebreaker because of their head to head matchup. That win in week 3 is arguably Green Bay’s only impressive victory on the year. They finish out favored in all their games and only the Titans in week 16 might give them trouble. Nightmare Matchup: RamsIt seems unlikely they meet based on the standings right now, but if it does happen the Packers are in trouble. An elite pass rush with Jalen Ramsey shadowing Davante Adams could spell trouble in Lambeau and lead to an early exit for the Packers. Saints (SB Odds +775): New Orleans has turned up the heat in the second half of the year and made life for opposing quarterbacks dreadful. They host the Chiefs on Sunday and a loss their probably takes them completely out of the #1 seed conversation. Losing to the Eagles last Sunday is probably going to come back to haunt this team. Nightmare Matchup: Vikings – if they get inNo matter how good of a season the Saints have, the Vikings always seem to be their kryptonite come playoff time. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook will not be a welcome sight to Sean Payton as he tries not to remember past heartbreak. If they Vikings get in and match up with New Orleans, watch out Saints **Super Bowl odds are from BetOnline**

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 15, 2020

The Tuesday sports card features the opening matches in the English Premier League's midweek schedule, along with an afternoon and evening slate in college basketball. The first college basketball game between two Division I schools tips off at 2 PM ET with St. Bonaventure playing Akron on a neutral court at the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse in Cleveland.The first of three nationally-televised games take place at 7 PM on ESPN, with Minnesota visiting Illinois in the Big Ten opening contest for both teams. The Golden Gophers have won their first six games this season after they defeated UMKC last Thursday as a 17-point favorite. Illinois has lost two of their last three games after they were upset at Missouri on Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. The Illini’s second loss was an 82-69 setback against Baylor, but they did defeat Duke on the road at Cameron Indoor Arena between those two setbacks. The Fighting Illini are 8-point favorites with the total set at 148.Tulsa hosts Wichita State at 7 PM ET on ESPNU. The Golden Hurricane won their first game in three contests in their last time on the court in a 79-64 victory over UT-Arlington as a 5-point favorite. Wichita State has lost their last two games after winning their opening contest against Oral Roberts. The Shockers come off a 67-64 loss to Oklahoma State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Isaac Brown serves as the interim head coach for this basketball team after Gregg Marshall resigned from the program last month amidst a bevy of accusations regarding the verbal and physical abuse of his players. Tulsa is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 132.The nightcap at 9 PM ET on ESPNU has Kansas State playing at Iowa State in the opening game in Big 12 action for both teams. The Wildcats won for the second time in their six games with a 76-75 triumph over Milwaukee as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.Iowa State opened their season with a victory over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, but they have since lost two games in a row after their 105-77 loss at Iowa on Saturday as a 16.5-point underdog. The Cyclones are 8.5-point favorites with an over/under of 137.Matchweek 13 in the English Premier League begins on Tuesday with two matches on the NBC Sports Network. Chelsea visits Wolverhampton for the opener at 1 PM ET. The Blues lost their first match in their last ten league contests on Saturday in a 1-0 loss at Everton. The setback dropped Chelsea into fifth place in the EPL table with 22 points from their six wins and four draws in 12 matches. The Blues did advance to the knockout stage Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League.Wolverhampton has lost their last two games after their 1-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa by a 1-0 score. With only five victories and two draws in their 12 matches, the Wolves sit tied in a disappointing 11th place with 17 points. The team is struggling with manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s move from his preferred 5-3-2 formation to a more aggressive 4-3-3 in the wake of the injury to striker Raul Jimenez that has him out indefinitely from the traumatic head injury he suffered last month. Wolverhampton has scored only 11 goals this season. Chelsea is a -0.75 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Manchester City hosts West Bromwich United at 3 PM ET. Man City comes off a nil-nil draw at Manchester United on Saturday. That result left the Cityzens in a disappointing ninth place in the table with only 19 points from the five wins and four draws in their eleven league matches. Manager Pep Guardiola hopes that striker Sergio Aguero who has only played in two games this season with a nagging hamstring injury. Man City also advanced to the Round of 16 knockout stages in the UEFA Champions League next month.West Brom has lost their last two matches with their 2-1 loss at Newcastle United on Saturday. The Baggies scored their ninth goal of the season, yet that is the second-fewest scored in the EPL. West Brom is also last with the 25 goals they have given up. The Baggies have only accumulated six points with a lone win plus three draws amidst their 12 matches. Those results leave them in 19th place and in danger of being relegated back to the Championship League after being promoted this year. Man City is a -2.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

Ness Notes: Monday, Dec 14

by Larry Ness

Monday, Dec 14, 2020

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 14, 2020

The Monday sports card features a modest slate of games in college basketball as well as Monday Night Football in the NFL.The college basketball schedule begins at noon ET with LSU hosting Sam Houston State. The Tigers are 25-point favorites with the total set at 154.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Two games are on national television. At 7 PM ET, George Washington plays at home against William & Mary on the CBS Sports Network. The Colonials are 6.5-point favorites with the over/under at 148. Marquette visits Creighton for a 9 PM ET tipoff on FS1. The Bluejays are 7-point favorites with the total at 149.5. The Monday night game on ESPN features two AFC North teams in the thick of the playoff race. Cleveland has won four straight games after they won at Tennessee last Sunday by a 41-35 score. The final score does not do justice to just how dominant the Browns were in that game as they raced out to a 38-7 halftime lead before going on autopilot in the second half with the result never in doubt. After the results on Sunday, Cleveland currently owns the first wildcard spot in the AFC playoff picture with their 9-3 record. A victory over Baltimore tonight would pull the Browns to within one game of first place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh's loss to Buffalo on Sunday night.Baker Mayfield completed 25 of 33 passes for 334 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions against the Titans. Mayfield’s last interception was on October 25th, and he has thrown eleven touchdown passes since. The play-action passing attack of first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski along with the strong play from the Cleveland offensive line has helped to limit Mayfield to only six sacks in their last six games. Mayfield is completing 62.7% of his passes this season for 2442 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Baltimore snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 34-17 victory over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. The Ravens averaged 7.9 yards-per-carry that produced 294 rushing yards against the Cowboys’ defense. At 7-5 for the year, Baltimore is two games behind Cleveland in the AFC North standings. A win over the Browns would pull the Ravens even with Miami for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Lamar Jackson returned to the field after being with due to COVID to complete an efficient 12 of 17 passes for 107 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception. Jackson added another 94 yards on the ground on 13 carries with a rushing touchdown. Jackson is completing 66.9% of his passes for 2055 yards with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He has averaged 5.8 yards-per-carry for 669 yards with four rushing touchdowns. Baltimore won the first meeting between these two teams by a 38-6 score on September 13th. The Ravens were 7-point favorites with the over/under at 47.5. Jackson completed 20 of his 25 passes in that game for 275 yards, yet that that was the only time this season he has eclipsed 249 passing yards in a game. The Ravens are a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 45.5. The kickoff on ESPN is at 8:15 PM ET.

NFL Monday Night Football: Browns/Ravens Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 14, 2020

The Monday night game on ESPN features two AFC North teams in the thick of the playoff race. Cleveland has won four straight games after they won at Tennessee last Sunday by a 41-35 score. The final score does not do justice to just how dominant the Browns were in that game as they raced out to a 38-7 halftime lead before going on autopilot in the second half with the result never in doubt. After the results on Sunday, Cleveland currently owns the first wildcard spot in the AFC playoff picture with their 9-3 record. A victory over Baltimore tonight would pull the Browns to within one game of first place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh's loss to Buffalo on Sunday night.Baker Mayfield completed 25 of 33 passes for 334 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions against the Titans. Mayfield’s last interception was on October 25th, and he has thrown eleven touchdown passes since. The play-action passing attack of first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski along with the strong play from the Cleveland offensive line has helped to limit Mayfield to only six sacks in their last six games. Mayfield is completing 62.7% of his passes this season for 2442 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Baltimore snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 34-17 victory over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. The Ravens averaged 7.9 yards-per-carry that produced 294 rushing yards against the Cowboys’ defense. At 7-5 for the year, Baltimore is two games behind Cleveland in the AFC North standings. A win over the Browns would pull the Ravens even with Miami for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Lamar Jackson returned to the field after being with due to COVID to complete an efficient 12 of 17 passes for 107 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception. Jackson added another 94 yards on the ground on 13 carries with a rushing touchdown. Jackson is completing 66.9% of his passes for 2055 yards with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. He has averaged 5.8 yards-per-carry for 669 yards with four rushing touchdowns. The Ravens removed tight end Mark Andrews along with wide receiver Willie Snead IV and linebacker Matthew Judon from their COVID list. They have five players questionable, including defensive tackle Calais Campbell with his calf injury and cornerback Jimmy Smith with a groin. Cornerback Tramon Williams is doubtful with a thigh. Baltimore has seven players either out for the season or on their Injured Reserve list, including left tackle Ronnie Stanley.Cleveland has declared cornerback Denzel Ward and wide receiver KhaDarel Hodge out for this game with injuries. Five other players are out the season or on their IR, most notably wide receiver Odell Beckham. Right guard Wyatt Teller is still on their COVID list. Tight end Austin Hooper is questionable with a neck injury.Baltimore won the first meeting between these two teams by a 38-6 score on September 13th. The Ravens were 7-point favorites with the over/under at 47.5. Jackson completed 20 of his 25 passes in that game for 275 yards, yet that that was the only time this season he has eclipsed 249 passing yards in a game. BookMaker lists the Ravens as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 45.5. The kickoff on ESPN is at 8:15 PM ET.

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NFL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 13, 2020

The Sunday sports card features the continuation of Week 14 in the National Football League along with a full slate of college basketball and five matches in the English Premier League.Fourteen games are on the docket in the NFL. Seven games begin the card at 1 PM ET. The national broadcast on Fox has Tampa Bay hosting Minnesota as a 7-point favorite with the total set at 52.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The primary game on CBS has Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite playing at home against Denver with an over/under of 44.5.Six more games take place in the 4:05 PM ET to 4:20 PM ET window of afternoon games. The national game on Fox has New Orleans visiting Philadelphia as an 8-point road favorite with the total at 43.The Sunday night game on NBC features two AFC teams looking to make deep runs in the playoffs. The Steelers and the Bills are also playing on a short week after both competed on Monday.Pittsburgh lost their first game of the season last week in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. The Steelers blew a 14-0 first-half lead in that game to lose to the Football Team. The 23 points that Washington scored was the most points that the Steel Curtain has allowed since the 24 points Baltimore put up in Week 8.Buffalo has won five of their last six games after they upset San Francisco on the road in their temporary home field in Glendale, Arizona, Monday night in their 34-24 victory. Josh Allen earned AFC Player of the Week honors by completing 32 of his 40 passes for 375 yards with four touchdown passes. The third-year pro is converting 69.9% of his passes for 3403 yards with 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions, and he has added 322 yards with another six touchdowns with his legs. The Bills are a 2-point favorite with the over/under at 49. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET.The nationally-televised college basketball card tips off at noon ET. Michigan State hosts Oakland on FS1 as a 26-point favorite with the total set at 147. Western Kentucky plays at home against Rhode Island as a 2.5-point favorite on the CBS Sports Network with an over/under of 149.5. At 1 PM ET, West Virginia takes on Richmond at home on ESPN as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 145.5. Northwestern hosts SIU-Edwardsville at 4 PM ET on ESPNU as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. At 7:30 PM ET on FS1, Georgetown plays at home against St. John’s as a 1-point favorite with the total at 153.5.Five matches take place in the English Premier League. At 7 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network, Southampton hosts Sheffield United as a -0.75 goal line favorite the over/under at 2.5. Tottenham visits Crystal Palace at 9:15 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Liverpool travels to Fulham as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with the over/under at 3.25 on the NBC Sports Network at 11:30 AM ET. The final two matches start at 2:15 PM ET. Arsenal hosts Burnley on the NBC Sports Network as a -1 goal line favorite with the total at 2.5. Leicester City plays at home on the NBC Peacock app as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

NFL Sunday Night Football: Bills/Steelers Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 13, 2020

The Sunday night game on NBC features two AFC teams looking to make deep runs in the playoffs. The Steelers and the Bills are also playing on a short week after both competed on Monday.Pittsburgh lost their first game of the season last week in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. The Steelers blew a 14-0 first-half lead in that game to lose to the Football Team. The 23 points that Washington scored was the most points that the Steel Curtain has allowed since the 24 points Baltimore put up in Week 8.Offensive woes held Pittsburgh back on Monday. They turned the ball over twice on downs from failed fourth-down conversions. They also failed to score from the Washington 1-yard line on five separate occasions. The Steelers also dropped another seven passes from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh leads the NFL with 34 dropped passes this season. Roethlisberger completed 33 of 53 passes for 305 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The veteran is completing 66.9% of his passes for 3105 yards with 27 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions. Roethlisberger has thrown 53 and 51 passes in his last two games, but after their first loss on Monday, relying less on the Steelers’ passing game appears likely. Pittsburgh expects to get back both running back James Conner and center Maurkice Pouncey from injuries for this game to provide a shot in the arm to their rushing attack. Buffalo has won five of their last six games after they upset San Francisco on the road in their temporary home field in Glendale, Arizona, Monday night in their 34-24 victory. Josh Allen earned AFC Player of the Week honors by completing 32 of his 40 passes for 375 yards with four touchdown passes. The third-year pro is converting 69.9% of his passes for 3403 yards with 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions, and he has added 322 yards with another six touchdowns with his legs. Allen leads an offense that is scoring 27.8 points-per-game while averaging 378.8 yards-per-game, which ranks eighth and tenth in the league. The Bills' defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 25.5 points-per-game along with 375.4 yards-per-game, which rank 18th and 21st in the NFL.Buffalo will be without safety Jaquan Johnson who is out with an ankle injury. The injuries for Pittsburgh are more significant with cornerback Joe Haden out with a concussion and inside linebacker Robert Spillane out with a knee injury. Neither team has any other players on their injured list.The Steelers remain two games ahead of Cleveland in the AFC North. Their 11-1 record is tied with Kansas City as they battle for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The Bills are 9-3, which places them one game ahead of Miami in the AFC East.BetAnySports lists the Bills as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 49. The kickoff on NBC is at 8:20 PM ET.

Ness Notes: Saturday, Dec 12

by Larry Ness

Saturday, Dec 12, 2020

This is a special Saturday edition of my Ness Notes column, which is always available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."NFL Week 14: Home teams have struggled all season, having gone 95-95-1 (.500) SU, while going 89-100-2 (47.1%) ATS through 13 weeks. Home dogs are 10-47 (.213) SU but 36-29-2 (55.4%) ATS. Week 13 games averaged 48.8 points with six going over, eight under and one push. There have now been 93 overs, 94 unders and five pushes. Week 14 began Thursday with the Rams easily beating the Pats 24-3 in LA, as home teams got off to a winning start. Will it hold? Let's take a look at Sunday's card.I will start at the top and bottom. The Jets found yet another easy to lose in Week 13, when Raiders QB Carr completed a 46-yard TD pass with FIVE second left in the game for a 31-26 win. The 0-12 Jets have now matched their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. Not far behind the Jets are the 1-11 Jaguars, who lost their 11th straight game 27-24 in OT at Minnesota (Jacksonville upset the Colts 27-20 in Week 1 but are winless ever since). At the 'top of the food chain' the Steelers finally got beat, falling 17-12 at home to Washington on Monday night. The 1972 Dolphins' perfect 17-0 season remains safe.Let's start in the AFC where the North-leading Steelers and the West-leading Chiefs are both 11-1. Pittsburgh currently owns the tiebreaker, giving them the No. 1 seed. The 9-3 Bills (one game up on the 8-4 Dolphins in the East) are the No. 3 seed and the 8-4 Titans are tied with the Colts atop the South at 8-4 but own the tiebreaker which gives them the No. 4 seed. The 9-3 Browns (read that again slowly to make sure!) own the No. 5 seed and the Dolphins own the No. 6 seed (and final wild card spot). Lurking are the 8-4 Colts, plus the 7-5 Raiders and Ravens.Over in the NFC, let me remind all that in 2019, the 49ers, Packers and Saints all finished 13-3 with San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans earning the 1-2-3 seeds, respectively. The defending NFC champions 49ers are all but officially eliminated from the 'playoff 'picture' in 2020, with their 5-7 record. Staying with that theme, San Francisco's 5-7 record would be good enough to be tied for first in the NFC East. Last season's NFC East champs (Eagles) are currently 3-8-1, while the 5-7 NY Giants (winners of FOUR straight) and 5-7 Washington (has won three straight) are tied atop the NFL's worst division. The Giants currently own the tiebreaker, so the G-Men currently own the No. 4 seed. As former head coach Bill Parcells once famously opined, "You are what your record says you are!" Hey Bill, the Giants are 5-7 and currently own a higher seed than the 8-4 Seahawks and 7-5 Bucs. Any thoughts? As for me, I'll paraphrase Vinnie Barbarino, "I'm so confused!" Returning to the top of the NFC, the Saints are 10-2 (have won NINE in a row!), one game better than the 9-3 Packers. The No. 3 seed belongs to the LA Rams and although the 8-4 Seahawks can match the Rams at 9-4 with a win over the Jets, the Rams would still own the tiebreaker. Seattle is currently the No. 5 seed, with the 7-5 Tampa Bay Bradys holding down the No. 6 seed. Lurking behind the the Bucs are the 6-6 Vikings, who are 5-1 after a 1-5 start, and the 6-6 Cards, who are 1-4 after a 5-2 start.From the "who'da thunk it" department: The two NO. 1 seeds from 2019 (14-2 Baltimore and 13-3 San Francisco) may BOTH miss the postseason in 2020. The Pats are almost sure to NOT win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 and may well miss the postseason for just the SECOND time in the last 18 seasons. In contrast, the 9-3 Bills have a good chance at winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and the 9-3 Browns (it's STILL hard to say that!) could just make the postseason for the first time since 2002 (can you say Tim Couch?).Good luck...Larry

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 12, 2020

The Saturday sports card features a full day of college football and college basketball action along with the continuation of Matchweek 12 of the English Premier League. Thirty-three games between FBS opponents are on the college football schedule. There were 11 games either canceled due to COVID issues: Michigan/Ohio State; Oklahoma/West Virginia; Miami (OH)/Bowling Green; Ohio/Kent State; Texas/Kansas; Purdue/Indiana; Washington/Oregon; Cincinnati/Tulsa; Mississippi/Texas A&M; Georgia Tech/Miami (FL); Utah State/Colorado State.Fifteen college football games take place in the noon ET to 3 PM ET window. Ten games kick off the card at noon ET. Utah travels to Colorado on Fox as a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 48 (all odds from BetOnline). Penn State hosts Michigan State on ABC as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Alabama visits Arkansas as a 32-point favorite with a total of 68. Northwestern plays at home against Illinois on ESPN2 laying 14 points with the over/under at 40. Nebraska takes on a visiting Minnesota as a 10-point favorite with a total of 60.5.At 2:30 PM ET, Buffalo hosts Akron as a 33-point favorite with the over/under at 58.5 on the CBS Sports Network. Army plays at home against Navy at 3 PM ET on CBS as an 8-point favorite with the total set at 37.5.Another eight games kickoff between 3:30 PM ET to 6 PM ET. At 3:30 PM ET, Miami (FL) plays at home against North Carolina as a 3-point favorite with a total of 70.5. Wisconsin travels to Iowa as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5 on FS1. At 4 PM ET, California visits Washington State as a 1-point favorite with the total at 53.5. Boise State plays at Wyoming at 6 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network as a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.Six games take place between 7 PM ET to 8 PM ET. On ESPN at 7 PM ET, Florida hosts LSU as a 23-point favorite with the total set at 68.5. TCU plays at home against Louisiana Tech on FS1 as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5. At 7:30 PM ET, USC visits crosstown rival UCLA on ABC as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 63.5.A final four games start between 10 PM ET to 11 PM ET. At 10 PM ET, BYU hosts San Diego State on ESPN2 as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47. Stanford visits Oregon State at 10:30 PM ET on ESPNU as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 52.5. Fresno State travels to New Mexico on FS1 as an 11.5-point favorite with the over/under at 58.The college basketball card tips off at 11 AM ET, with Florida State hosting Florida on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 140. At noon ET, Kentucky plays at home against Notre Dame on CBS as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. The opening game of the Holiday Hoopsgiving quadruple-header at the State Farm Center in Atlanta has South Florida playing Wofford on ESPN News as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 133.5.Syracuse visits Boston College at 1 PM ET on ESPNU as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 147.At 3 PM ET, the second game in Atlanta has Mississippi State playing Dayton on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 133.5. Saint Louis hosts Evansville on the NBC Sports Network as a 23-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. At 5 PM ET, VCU plays at home against Old Dominion on the NBC Sports Network as a 7-point favorite with a total of 137. The third game in Atlanta tips off at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN, with Memphis playing Auburn as a 7-point favorite with the over/under at 144.5. Illinois travels to Missouri at 8 PM ET on ESPNU as a 3-point road favorite with the total at 144.5.Four matches take place in the English Premier League. At 7:30 AM ET, Wolverhampton hosts Aston Villa as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.5. Newcastle United plays at home against West Brom at 10 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. At 12:30 PM ET on NBC, Manchester City visits Manchester United at Old Trafford as a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Chelsea travels to Everton at 3 PM ET as a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

Ness Notes: Friday, Dec 11

by Larry Ness

Friday, Dec 11, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." New England breezed to a 45-0 romp over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday at SoFi Stadium but found out quickly that the stadium's co-tenants, the LA Rams, are NOT the Chargers! Rookie RB Cam Akers scored on a one-yard TD run 3:39 into the game and went on to rush for a season-high 171 yards (think the Rams miss Gurley?), while QB Jared Goff threw a TD pass and ran for a TD in LA's 24-3 win over the Pats. Cam Newton "stunk out the joint" once again, passing for just 119 yards (BTW he passed for 69 yards in the 45-0 win over the Chargers) threw for just 119 yards, was sacked FOUR times and had one INT, which turned into a "Pick-Six!" He was replaced by Jarrett Stidham but after that game Belichick emphatically said, "Cam's our QB," cutting off the question to give his answer. The Rams are now 9-4, a half-game ahead of Seattle in the NFC West (which hosts the 0-12 Jets on Sunday), while the Pats fell to 6-7. The Pats' playoff chances aren't officially 'dead' but they're close! My NFL Week 14 preview will be available in a "special" Saturday edition of Ness Notes (NFL-only report).CBB: The only two ranked teams in action on Thursday were No. 23 Arizona St and No. 24 San Diego St and the two programs met last night in Tempe. San Diego State was playing on the road for the first time this season but pulled away in the second half for an 80-68 win to move to 5-0 on the season. The Aztecs lead the nation with 13 straight victories on the road. The Sun Devils were the higher ranked team (23 to 24), so that leaves higher ranked teams 8-5 SU but 5-8 ATS in games between ranked opponents. There were no games between ranked and unranked opponents on Thursday, so that Y-T-D mark stands at 71-9 (.888) SU and 44-34-2 (56.4%) ATS for ranked teams vs unranked opponents. There are no games between ranked teams on Friday but FIVE involving ranked teams playing unranked opponents. All games involve teams in the AP's top-11. In order of rank it's No. 3 Iowa (4-0) hosting Iowa St, No. 5 Kansas (5-1) hosting Omaha, No. 8 Creighton (3-1) hosting Nebraska, No. 9 Villanova (4-1) visiting Georgetown and No. 11 West Va (4-1) home to North Texas. A quick pointspread update notes that Iowa is 3-1 ATS and favored by 14 over Iowa St, Kansas is 1-4 ATS and favored by 24 points over Omaha, Creighton is 2-2 ATS and favored by 14 over Nebraska, Villanova is 3-2 ATS and favored by 11 1/2 over Georgetown and West Va is 3-2 ATS and favored by 14 1/2 over North Texas. My next CBB update will be featured in Monday's Notes.CFB: Lots to get to regarding the CFB weekend but first, a quick thought on two Friday games. The Arizona/Arizona State rivalry is one of the longest football rivalries in the nation. The winner receives the Territorial Cup, created 121 years ago for the 1899 champion between schools in Arizona and which the NCAA has certified as the oldest rivalry trophy in college football. However, the Territorial Cup did not change hands as a regular part of the competition until 2001. In this "Year of COVID" both schools will be looking for the first wins of 2020. The 0-2 Sun Devils have only played twice, the fewest of any FBS program that isn't sitting out this pandemic-impacted season, and Arizona is 0-4 and has lost a school-record 11 consecutive games, with 10 of the defeats coming by double-digit margins. No wonder an 0-2 ASU team is an 11 1/2-point road favorite. Then there is 6-1 Nevada playing 5-0 San Jose St in a MWC showdown. This marks the second consecutive home game San Jose State was forced to relocate, after the team's matchup with Hawai'i on Saturday became a road game. Following their 35-24 victory over the Rainbow Warriors, the Spartans flew to Las Vegas, where they have spent the week practicing. Tonight's game will be held at Sam Boyd Stadium, the longtime home of UNLV, which has also turned into a de facto home stadium for New Mexico this season. The Lobos were also forced to relocate because of restrictions related to the pandemic. The winner between San Jose State (-1) and Nevada will play in the MWC championship game on Dec 19.AP poll and CFP standings: The top-seven schools did not change in the latest AP poll (Dec 6). Alabama was a unanimous No. 1 for the third straight week. Notre Dame, with its 16-game winning streak (longest among all FBS teams) is No. 2, Ohio St No. 3 and Clemson No. 4. Texas A&M is No.5, Florida No. 6 and Cincinnati No. 7. BYU had been No. 8 but its 22-17 loss at then-No. 14 Coastal Carolina dropped the Cougars to No. 14. Coastal Carolina is up to No. 11, with four schools dropping out of the top-25 and four entering or reentering. Out are No. 15 Marshall with its 'ugly' 20-0 home loss to Rice, No. 19 Oklahoma St is out for the first time this season plus Pac 12 underachievers No. 21 Oregon and 23 Washington also fell out (more on this duo, later). North Carolina (20th) and Texas (23rd) are back in, while Colorado (21st) is in for the first time since 2018 and Buffalo (24th) for the first time in school history!The CFP standings are the only rankings that will affect the bowls and of course, the 'Final Four.' Nothing changed on Dec 8 at the top, with the top-six matching the AP's top-six, with the exception being Clemson at No. 3 and Ohio St at No. 4. BYU's loss has the Cougars down at No. 18, so there will be no more whining by the ESPN commentators regarding "underappreciated" BYU. 8-0 Cincinnati (No. 8) remains the highest-ranked Group of 5 school but the Bearcats better not lose, as 10-0 Coastal Carolina is up to No. 11. That's a wrap on the polls, so let's move on to Saturday.As always, using the AP rankings, I note games between top-25 opponents and also games between ranked and unranked teams. I will do the same today and for those looking for the SU & ATS numbers Y-T-D for these two categories, see Wednesday's Notes. No. 7 Cincy was supposed to play at No. 18 Tulsa but the game was canceled. That leaves just two top-25 matchups, No. 19 Iowa at home against No. 25 Wisconsin and No. 9 Miami-Fl hosting No. 20 North Carolina. Wisconsin is a two-point road favorite and Miami-Fl is a three-point home favorite. FIVE ranked teams lost games on Saturday to COVID, as No. 3 Ohio St, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 12 Indiana and No. 20 Texas had games canceled, while No. 5 Texas A&M had its game postponed. That leaves nine games between ranked and unranked opponents still "good to go" (fingers crossed), including No. 1 Alabama at Arkansas and No. 6 Florida home to LSU. Alabama and Florida are already locked into the SEC championship game but with the Tide favored by 32 points and Florida by 23, no one expects a 'slip-up.'Of the seven other games between ranked and unranked opponents, No. 11 Coastal Carolina's at Troy and then plays ULL in the SBC title game. The Chanticleers can't control the outcome of the AAC title game between Cincy and Tulsa, but if the Bearcats lose, a 12-0 Coastal Carolina team would likely move past Cincy as the highest ranked Group of 5 team. Coastal Carolina is favored by 13 1/2-points. No. 21 Colorado is 4-0 and will host Utah at 12 ET. If the Buffs win (Colorado is favored by 2 1/2-points), the pressure would be on No. 16 USC to beat crosstown rival UCLA and claim the Pac 12 South title (Trojans are favored by 2 1/2-points).The winner of the Pac 12 South will meet Washington in the Pac 12 championship. COVID-19 has "wreaked havoc" on college football this season and on Thursday, the Washington at Oregon game was canceled due to COVID issues with Washington. I won't question the veracity of Washington but Oregon and its fans have to be VERY unhappy, as if Oregon had beaten Washington, the Ducks would be the North champs. Washington would have claimed the North title with a win as well but how "sweet it was" for the Huskies that a canceled game gave them the North title. Then again, this MAY not be over. It is not yet clear if Washington will have enough available players to play in next Friday's championship game. Should the Huskies be unable to play, it is not a given the Ducks would play for the title. If both USC and Colorado finish undefeated, it's possible the conference could change its rules to pit the undefeated teams against each other, noting that the Colorado-USC game earlier this season was canceled because of issues the Trojans had with the virus. Wouldn't that be something?After all, a conference "changing its rules" would be NOTHING new. The Big Ten has botched its COVID response since the jump and Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren has been the subject of great controversy. Not a SINGLE living person (nor anyone who has already passed) was surprised that when Michigan canceled its Dec 12 game at Ohio St on Tuesday (meaning Ohio St would not meet the minimum of six games played) the "powers that be" found it their hearts to rewrite the rules, allowing Ohio State's 5-0 record to be good enough for them to play Northwestern next Saturday. An Ohio St win over Northwestern (Buckeyes have already been established as a 21-point favorite) will just about guarantee that Ohio St would make the 'Final Four' and the Big Ten would get the $6 million plus payday that comes with it! ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, that was never even a consideration in the Big Ten's decision to 'take a mulligan!'Don't forget, I'll have a "special" NFL-only edition of Ness Notes on Saturday.Good luck...Larry

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