2021 NBA Playoffs: 1st Round Previews, Odds and Predictions

by Al McMordie

The NBA Playoffs tip off this weekend, and the match-ups have been set.  Let's take a look at the eight First Round series from a point spread perspective.

In the Eastern Conference, the match-ups are:

(1) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (8) Washington Wizards
(2) Brooklyn Nets vs. (7) Boston Celtics
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (6) Miami Heat
(4) New York Knicks vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

In the Western Conference, the match-ups are:

(1) Utah Jazz vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies
(2) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Dallas Mavericks

The odds (courtesy of BookMaker) on each team to win its First Round series are:

Philadelphia 76ers (-973)/Washington Wizards (+723)
Brooklyn Nets (-1164)/Boston Celtics (+838)
Milwaukee Bucks (-299)/Miami Heat (+258)
New York Knicks (+112)/Atlanta Hawks (-127)
Utah Jazz (-1164)/Memphis Grizzlies (+832)
Phoenix Suns (+138)/Los Angeles Lakers (-153)
Denver Nuggets (+118)/Portland Trail Blazers (-133)
Los Angeles Clippers (-368)/Dallas Mavericks (+313)

The regular season series records for each of the First Round match-ups are as follows:

Philadelphia defeated Washington 3 games to 0
Brooklyn defeated Boston 3 games to 0
Milwaukee defeated Miami 2 games to 1
New York defeated Atlanta 3 games to 0
Utah defeated Memphis 3 games to 0
Phoenix defeated Los Angeles 2 games to 1
Denver defeated Portland 2 games to 1
Dallas defeated Los Angeles 2 games to 1

The ATS and O/U records for each team are:

Atlanta Hawks:  39-32-1 ATS (54.9%); 35 overs, 36 unders, 1 tie
Boston Celtics:  34-38-1 ATS (47.2%); 37 overs, 36 unders
Brooklyn Nets:  38-34 ATS (52.7%); 40 overs, 32 unders
Dallas Mavericks:  35-37 ATS (48.6%); 34 overs, 38 unders
Denver Nuggets:  34-38 ATS (47.2%); 39 overs, 32 unders, 1 tie
Los Angeles Clippers:  39-32-1 ATS (54.9%); 35 overs, 35 unders, 2 ties
Los Angeles Lakers:  32-40-1 ATS (44.4%); 28 overs, 43 unders, 2 ties
Memphis Grizzlies:  43-31 ATS (58.1%); 35 overs, 37 unders, 2 ties
Miami Heat:  34-36-2 ATS (48.5%); 38 overs, 34 unders
Milwaukee Bucks:  32-40 ATS (44.4%); 41 overs, 30 unders, 1 tie
New York Knicks:  45-26-1 ATS (63.3%); 32 overs, 40 unders
Philadelphia 76ers:  38-31-3 ATS (55.0%); 34 overs, 37 unders, 1 tie
Phoenix Suns:  42-28-2 ATS (60.0%); 42 overs, 30 unders
Portland Trail Blazers:  38-34 ATS (52.7%); 36 overs, 34 unders, 2 ties
Utah Jazz:  41-31 ATS (56.9%); 33 overs, 38 unders, 1 tie
Washington Wizards:  42-31-1 ATS (57.5%); 37 overs, 37 unders

First Round trends since 1990:

Home:  547-537-24 ATS
Away:  537-574-24 ATS
Underdog:  541-604-26 ATS
Favorite:  604-541-26 ATS
Off Win:  578-597-28 ATS
Off Loss:  573-554-24 ATS
Off SU/ATS Win:  458-471-24 ATS
Off SU/ATS Loss:  462-460-21 ATS
Off Back-to-Back SU/ATS Wins:  184-183-12 ATS
Off Back-to-Back SU/ATS Losses:  174-159-13 ATS
Off 20-point Playoff Win:  65-79-1 ATS
Off 10-point Cover in Previous Playoff Game:  171-185-6 ATS
Off Upset Playoff Win:  124-151-9 ATS
Off Over in Previous Playoff Game:  416 overs, 448 unders, 18 ties
Off Under in Previous Playoff Game:  442 overs, 494 unders, 16 ties
#1 seeds:  143-138-4 ATS
#2 seeds:  170-109-10 ATS
#3 seeds: 149-144-7 ATS
#4 seeds: 134-168-5 ATS
#5 seeds:  168-134-5 ATS
#6 seeds:  144-149-7 ATS
#7 seeds: 109-170-10 ATS
#8 seeds:  138-143-4 ATS

Predictions:

Eastern Conference:
Philadelphia 76ers win 4 games to 0
Brooklyn Nets win 4 games to 0
Milwaukee Bucks win 4 games to 1
New York Knicks win 4 games to 3

Western Conference:
Utah Jazz win 4 games to 0
Phoenix Suns win 4 games to 3
Portland Trail Blazers win 4 games to 2
Dallas Mavericks win 4 games to 2

Good luck, as always...Al McMordie




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