Week 7 College FB Observations: Heisman Race Thickens
by Vegas Writer
Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023Who's atop your Heisman watch?Admittedly, my money was on reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams coming into the season.But his Pac-12 rival Michael Penix Jr. has stolen the show for me, and is currently atop my Heisman watch list.As of Wednesday at 6 am pacific, here are the top six at DraftKings: Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) -130 J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) +1000 Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) +1000 Jordan Travis (Florida State) +1200 Jayden Daniels (LSU) +1400 Drake Maye (North Carolina) +1800 Bo Nix (Oregon) +2000 Caleb Williams (USC) +2000 The two questions you have to ask yourself are:1. Which name sitting between Penix and Williams is worth taking a shot with, considering the value being offered?2. Is it worth it now to lay the -130 on Penix?It certainly is worth it to play Williams at this price, considering he's NFL-ready right now and can go off at any point and dominate any opponent on any given night. And we all know Heisman voters remember what players do in the second half of the season than they remember games from September and October. He's facing Utah this weekend and has revenge on the brain from last season's conference championship game. After Saturday, you may not see Williams at this price ever again.But let's start with Penix, who threw four touchdowns in the Huskies’ big win over Oregon on Saturday. He now has 20 TD completions through the first six games of the season. This dude has obnoxiously bullied his way to the favorite role in this race, as he's completing 72% of his passes and averages nearly 11 yards per attempt.Back to the voters' memory bank, Penix and the Huskies opened the season against five unranked opponents. But Saturday's win over Oregon was the first of four Washington opponents that currently reside in the Top 25, with No. 18 USC, No. 14 Utah, No. 12 Oregon State forthcoming. How Penix does against those teams will tell us a lot. Personally, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Huskies drop two games down the stretch, and that could turn into Penix returning a plus price in the Heisman race.As for the six names in between, here is who I'm keeping my eyes on:McCarthy might be worth the investment, considering Michigan hasn't been tested yet. Though the Wolverines might not face a team that can beat them, they will face defensive units that will challenge McCarthy. A couple of breakout performances could raise his stock, which would drop his price.Gabriel could steal the headlines from everyone, point blank. He already ranks in the top 10 nationally in many categories, including third in total offense (347.7 ypg), fourth in points responsible for per game (21.0), sixth in passing efficiency rating (178.2), seventh in passing offense (313.0 ypg), eighth in passing touchdowns (16) and ninth in pass completion percentage (.723). On the last state given, for perspective, the single-season record at OU is .709 by Baker Mayfield in 2016. Gabriel leads the Big 12 in all of those categories.Daniels is an interesting commodity, as he's sporting the nation's highest pass efficiency (197.7) and averages the most yards per attempt (11.0). He's thrown the second-most touchdowns (22) and is also getting it done with his feet, having rushed for 515 yards and four touchdowns. An upcoming game vs. Alabama could propel Daniels deeper into the race, which would drop his odds.Pick your poison as we hit the midway point of the college football season, but choose wisely, as the Heisman race is about to get interesting.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 6:BIG 10 BATTLE - All eyes will be on Columbus this weekend when the sixth-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions hope to prove themselves against No. 3 Ohio State.The Lions have won 17 of their last 19 - while covering 16 of those games - with the only losses coming against Ohio State and Michigan.Penn State is just 1-8 straight-up against the Buckeyes under coach James Franklin. The Lions are only 3-6 against Michigan with Franklin at the helm. As a matter of fact, they're a mere 3-15 against Top 10 foes under Franklin's watch.But if there were ever a chance to shed those horrific numbers, it's this season with a stifling defense. The Lions rank No. 1 overall in allowing 193.7 yards per game, including a paltry 72.5 on the ground. Penn State has allowed an average of 8.0 points per game this season, registering shutouts in two of its last three.There is no bigger game for the Lions than this Saturday in Columbus. That is, until Nov. 11, when Michigan comes to Happy Valley. Both are important this season, as Lions boast a viable defense that could lead them to wins in both.ATS BESTS - Three teams are perfect against the number, two of which aren't surprising as they hail from Power 5 conferences, but the third is a shocker. Penn State and Oklahoma are each 6-0 straight-up and at the window, the former using its aforementioned defense and the latter riding its Hesiman-candidate quarterback to fuel a high-powered offense. The shocker, however, is UNLV, which checks in at 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS at this point.Only one other team still has a goose egg in the loss column, but Oregon, which is 5-1 SU, now has a tie against the books, after catching +3 last week at Washington in the 36-33 loss.MORE ATS OBSERVATIONS - The Vanderbilt Commodores are an interesting storyline when it comes to the betting window this season. They're 2-6 on the year, including a 0-4 record in SEC play. They're also 1-7 ATS after nabbing their first cover of the season in this past Saturday's 37-20 loss to top-ranked Georgia. The 'Dores caught +32.5 points and easily stayed inside the number. But the interesting part of this team is its 8-0 to the over when it comes to totals.Since winning its first two games, the Commodores have been outscored by an average margin of 15.6 points per game, while allowing 39.0 ppg. But where these totals are cashing in is with Vandy doing its part on offense, averaging 27.8 points per game.The average total on Vandy games is 54, ranging between 50.5 and 56.5. So if the Commodores are scoring 27.8 points per game - half of the average posted total - and they're being blown out most games, you can see how these games are landing north of the total by an average of 8.0 points per game.Vandy hosts Ole Miss this weekend, and go figure, the books are catching up as the total at DraftKings is sitting on 60 as of Wednesday morning.CHALK CHECK-IN - Since I missed last week due to some out-of-town commitments, that kept me in time restraints and away from my weekly research, let's catch up on how the favorites have been doing.Favorites that have ranged between 4 and 7.5 points have done the best the last two weeks, going a combined 19-14, including a 12-7 showing this past week.Bigger favorites have struggled the last two weeks, with teams laying 20 or more going 1-5 two weeks back, and haven't shown us a winning week since Week 1. Since then, those teams have a combined 22-32 ATS mark.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 7, favorites are 188-173 with the following breakdown:1-3 1/2 ............ 42-404-7 1/2 ............ 53-408-10 1/2 ........... 16-1511-14 1/2 ....,..... 25-2415-19 1/2 .......... 19-1420 and up ...... 33-40
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