not playing injured, as he did since Week Two last year, which caused him to miss five games. Defensive end Malcolm Koonce missed the entire season due to injury. Get those two back healthy for a full season, and the Raiders could make things interesting. Despite going 4-13 last year, they got outgained by only -29.9 net Yards-Per-Game due to a defense that ranked 15th by giving up only 333.1 total YPG. Ranking second-to-last in opponent starting field position put the defense behind the eight-ball too often. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Deciding to pay for a professional football coach did wonders for the Chargers last season as they upped their win total by six victories — and their 11-6 regular season record got them into the playoffs. But Los Angeles got exposed in the playoffs in a 32-12 loss at Houston. Quarterback Justin Herbert did not play well in that game as he continued a disturbing trend of underachieving performances in the postseason. But head coach Jim Harbaugh’s immediate change of culture with an approach that emphasizes winning the battle at the line of scrimmage while running the ball and limiting mistakes was effective. While the Chargers got outgained by -0.2 net Yards-Per-Game, they still outscored their opponents by +5.9 Points-Per-Game. While the media lionizes most of the head coaches in the NFL, it is amazing how successful Bill Belichick’s old “wait for the other guy to start making mistakes” philosophy still works. This begs the question regarding how good this Los Angeles team will be in 2025-26. They lost six of their eight games against teams that made the playoffs. They failed to score more than 17 points on seven occasions. On the other hand, the 110.7 rushing Yards-Per-Game were the lowest total for a Harbaugh-coached team at the collegiate or NFL level. With Najee Harris signed in free agency and Omarion Hampton drafted from North Carolina in the first round, the running back room is much better. The Chargers have as good a pair of bookend tackles in the league in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. But the interior of the line remains a question. Herbert’s targets in the passing game are better with the additions of rookie Tre Harris (who led the FBS with 128.8 passing Yards-Per-Game at Ole Miss and tight end Tyler Conklin, along with the return of veteran wide receiver Mike Williams from the New York Jets and Pittsburgh last year. They join second-year breakout star Ladd McConkey, along with the former first-round pick Quentin Johnson, in the receiving corps. Herbert needed more reliable targets in the end zone after the team only had 13 touchdown passes inside the red zone last year. The bigger questions come from the other side of the ball. It will probably be too much to ask for the Chargers to once again lead the NFL by limiting their opponents to 17.7 PPG. That was almost a touchdown better than the 23.4 PPG they surrendered the previous season. The plexiglass principle is sound in that dramatic improvements in one area tend to regress a bit the following season. Using the DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders, Los Angeles ranked 21st in Defensive DVOA in 2022-23 and 26th in ’23-24 before improving to ninth last season. On the one hand, there was a qualitative difference with the defense last year, with the defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying the Michigan/Baltimore Ravens’ innovative scheme that emphasizes deceptive post-snap adjustments and positional flexibility. Strong safety Derwin James Jr. thrived with this opportunity to demonstrate his flexibility. Harbaugh’s run-first philosophy that emphasized protecting the football certainly helped as well. But there remain red flags that the defense is going to take a step back. They enjoyed the sixth-easiest defensive schedule according to the deeper metrics. The Chargers ranked sixth in sacks, but their Pressure Rate of 30% ranked 18th in the league. The defensive line is a weakness after ranking 26th in Adjusted Line Yards Allowed and Stuff Rate. They also ranked 24th in the NFL with opponents averaging 2.2 Yards-Per-Carry before contact. The unit is now replacing defensive linemen Poona Ford and Morgan Fox, linebacker Joey Bosa, and cornerbacks Asante Samuel Jr. and Kristian Fulton. It’s not too difficult to put a positive spin on those changes. Bosa is getting old and struggles to stay on the field. Samuel remained unsigned heading into the fall training camps. The players may not have been the best fits for Minter’s scheme, which requires players to have multiple skill sets. There appear to be rising stars at defensive end with third-year pro Tuli Tuipulotu and linebacker Daiyan Henley complementing proven veterans Khalil Mack and James. But a tougher schedule will expose just how far this team has come in Harbaugh’s first two seasons, changing the identity of this franchise. MIAMI DOLPHINS: After making the playoffs in the first two seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins fell to 8-9 last year — and the vibes are bad. Star cornerback Jalen Ramsey was granted his trade request at the end of June when he was dealt to Pittsburgh. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is a drama queen and coming off a year where did not reach 1000 receiving yards. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed another six games because of injuries. McDaniel admitted to a problem of player tardiness to team meetings. The inmates appear to be running the asylum. McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier on are on the hot seat — but it is going to be difficult to put the genie back in the proverbial bottle, even with a relatively light schedule. McDaniel is talking about being more of a disciplinarian — but it is very tough for the “cool teacher” who lets the students get away with whatever they want to suddenly command the respect to not talk back in class. It has been speculated that one of the reasons Ramsey wanted out of the building was his lack of respect for McDaniel. The bigger problem is that his offense was not nearly as explosive last year. After leading the NFL by generating 401.3 total Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24, Miami dropped to 18th in the league by averaging 325.4 total YPG last year. There are several factors involved. The offensive line fell from fourth in Adjusted Line Yards to last in that metric a year ago. At 31 years old, Hill may have lost a step. But the league may be figuring out McDaniel’s schemes. While pre-snap motion was a relatively new phenomenon a few years ago, now it is commonplace. Furthermore, there are simply limitations in what the offense can accomplish when such a priority is placed on keeping Tagovailoa upright and not risking another concussion. His 2.42 seconds per throw average last year was the fastest in the NFL. But the zeal to get the ball out quickly removes the deep ball threat. The Dolphins struggled to threaten two-high safety looks that can suffocate their speedy playmakers. Tagovailoa’s average depth of target went from 7.6 yards per attempt two years ago (21st of qualifying QBs) to 5.7 yards per attempt, which was last for the 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His check-down rate on 16.6% of his throws was the fourth highest in the NFL. He only threw into tight windows in 20.1% of his throws, ranking in the lower end. Tagovailoa rarely uses his legs to garner first downs as well, given the inherent injury risk of being a ball carrier. The run game was not effective either — after ranking sixth in the NFL two years ago by generating 135.8 rushing YPG, they fell to 21st last year by only averaging 105.6 rushing YPG. The decreased threat of the rushing attack diminished the potency of McDaniel dialing up play-action passes. In all, all the window dressing of pre-snap motion and play-action passing fails to unlock the speed of the play-makers on the offense if defenses are comfortable in simply stopping what Tagovailoa does with the football in under three seconds. Grier’s hope is that he made the team tougher in the offseason through the draft and in free agency — although seeing long-time left tackle Terron Armstead retire in the offseason does not help. It is hard to change the identity of a football team from finesse to physical in one offseason without also changing the coaching staff. Three new starters will be on the offensive line. The defense will miss the defensive end Calais Campbell, who signed with Arizona in the offseason — even at 38 years old, he remains effective in the pass rush. The roster is bereft of talent at cornerback after the trade of Ramsey. In my deep dive on this team last year, I observed that much of the gaudy stats for this team came against sub-.500 teams. The Dolphins have been flat-track bullies under McDaniel, who tend to melt against tougher competition. They have lost six of their seven games against AFC East rival Buffalo in his tenure. Now, the inner turmoil is growing, and the rest of the league is catching up. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: The Jared Mayo era — and the idyllic feeling created by being a “players-coach” who will install a ping-pong table in the locker room — lasted less than half a season last year. Instead, the reek of the inevitable impending disaster of combining a first-year head coach with first-time play-callers on offense and defense overtook the entire facility. Admitted he made a mistake, owner Robert Kraft fired Mayo at the end of the season and tapped another former linebacker who played for Bill Belichick, Mike Vrabel, to rescue the franchise. The Patriots have the second-fewest victories in the NFL since 2023. But while Mayo shouldered most of the blame, first-year general manager Eliot Wolf did not have a great initial draft. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye was certainly encouraging, but Wolf may have already struck out on both wide receiver picks taken in the first four rounds (some things never change). The two offensive linemen taking in the first two rounds remain a work in progress, with neither expected to be in the starting lineup — and that was a dreadful unit last year that will have three new starters this season. Wolf drafted three more offensive linemen in his second draft, headlined by first-round draft pick Will Campbell out of LSU, whose red flag as the fourth player selected is his less-than-prototype arm length for the position. The Campbell pick highlights the emerging theme I observed in my deep dive of this tea this season: everything is a question? Is Stefon Diggs still a WR1 coming off ACL surgery and slow decline in his production since the second half of the 2023 season? Are there any reliable deep threats in the wide receiver room? Do the five projected starters on defense signed in free agency really represent an upgrade over last year’s unit that ranked 22nd in the NFL? Why didn’t Vrabel ever oversee an elite defense in his six years as the head coach in Tennessee? But there are three questions that must be answered in the affirmative for the Patriots to have a decent chance of improving on their consecutive 4-13 campaigns. First, Campbell has to be the answer protecting Maye’s blindside — and the concerns about his short arms need to be invalidated. Second, can defensive tackle Christian Barmore must regain the form he enjoyed in his breakout 2023-24 season after missing most of last year dealing with scary blood clot issues? Third, will Maye take another step (or two) under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, back for his third stint with the franchise, running the offense? Maye showed flashes — and his ranking eighth in fastest throw time for quarterbacks is encouraging. His 421 rushing yards were a pleasant surprise — but was that production out of desperation running for his life behind that porous offensive line? There were red flags last year. He ranked 34th in check-down rate. He only averaged 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. He had the 11th highest Turnover Worthy Pass Rate. I am seeing that New England is a trendy sleeper pick in some circles. About the only stable thing I see is Christian Gonzalez at cornerback. Nearly everywhere else, it seems as if the plan is hope — but, wow, a lot has to go right. NEW YORK JETS: After 14 straight seasons of missing the playoffs, the Jets hit the reset button once again for the 2025-26 season. The transition began during last season when head coach Robert Saleh was fired on October 8th. Just over a month later, general manager Joe Douglas was let go on November 19th. In the offseason, Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn was hired as their next head coach. Then Darren Mougey was hired as their next general manager. One of the first decisions of the new brain trust was to cut Aaron Rodgers. Glenn wants less drama, thankfully. He is a Bill Parcells disciple who will want his team to be tough and physical. They signed Justin Fields in free agency as a relatively inexpensive lottery ticket at quarterback. He went 4-2 as a starter for Pittsburgh last year before getting benched because Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin was infatuated with the idea of Russell Wilson as his starting quarterback. Pittsburgh chose not to re-sign Wilson either, with Tomlin’s latest infatuation being Rodgers. Musical chairs aside, rookie offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand vows to build the offense around Fields’ skillset, which should mean plenty of designed running plays like Washington incorporated for Jayden Daniels last year. Fields has struggled with processing and accuracy in the passing game. However, a good argument can be made that Fields has lacked quality offensive minds and coaching, helping to put him in a position to succeed. The jury is out on Engstrand, who was the passing game coordinator and tight ends coach for the Lions since 2022. The Jets will certainly run the ball more now that the threat of getting eye-rolled to death and then trolled on the Pat McAfee show for not calling enough pass plays is gone. They were last in the league last season with only 363 rushing attempts. After drafting tackles in the last two years to join a good interior, Glenn may be able to take a page from the Detroit blueprint by basing their rebuild on establishing an elite offensive line. Running the ball more should help a defense that saw several of its good players take a step back. After being named to two straight All-Pro teams to begin his career, cornerback Sauce Gardner endured his worst season in the league. Injuries did not help matters — New York had the sixth most adjusted games lost to injury on defense last season. Glenn and veteran defensive coordinator Steve Wilks should get this unit to play better. Despite ranking third in the league by allowing only 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game, their defense ranked 21st in the NFL in Expected Points Allowed per Play (after ranking third in Defensive EPA last year). Better health, more rushing attempts, and better vibes could lead to this unit returning to its 2023 level. With defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, linebacker Quincy Williams, and Gardner, the Jets’ defense have former All-Pros at all three levels. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 18 years as the Steelers’ head coach — but I fear that streak is in severe jeopardy this year. I have zero confidence in the Aaron Rodgers experiment working — but I do appreciate the irony of this organization moving on from Russell Wilson’s stat-padding to turn to the OG of empty calorie stat-building in Rodgers. Rodgers is a talker at this point in his career. If he were to say it’s sunny outside, I would grab my umbrella. I appreciate his second-half numbers for the New York Jets last season were enough to entice some that he still has some gas in the tank. Even if I’m wrong about this one (but I have been making money being right about Rodgers for years now), he’s 41 years old, whose next birthday is in December — and the historical comparisons in the history of the NFL are not encouraging. Father Time is undefeated — and when he comes knocking, the end comes quickly, as Drew Brees and Brett Favre demonstrated in the final year of their careers. Both of those players were 41 years old when they experienced their sudden decline — but neither was coming off a recent major injury, either while playing at a high level at 40 years old, than Rodgers has so far demonstrated. My concerns about the Steelers go well beyond their quarterback. Not only do they have their fourth straight new starting quarterback in the last four seasons, but they also said goodbye to their top running back, Najee Harris, and their top wide receiver, George Pickens. While those individual decisions were all justifiable, in the previous 13 times in NFL history when a team lost their top QB, RB, and WR, their average winning percentage the next season was just .364 — and just two of those teams had winning records with the 2016 New Orleans Saints moving to Drew Brees at quarterback were able to win 10 or more games. Yet it is a step back (or two) on the other side of the line of scrimmage that really threatens Tomlin’s streak. Pittsburgh surrendered 27.4 Points-Per-Game in their last five games, culminating in their 28-14 loss at Baltimore when the Ravens rushed for 299 yards against them. The Steelers' pass defensive surrendered 228.0 passing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 25th in the league. Their 40 sacks were the fewest for this franchise since 2014. Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. has been a disappointment in his first two seasons, and free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has picked off only one pass in the last two years. Pittsburgh was tied for second place last year with a +16 net turnover margin, with their defense forcing 33 turnovers. That is an area where past performance is not predictive of future success — and it is troublesome that they did not re-sign cornerback Donte Jackson, who accounted for six takeaways himself. The Steelers have not posted a top-ten defense in terms of total yardage allowed since 2020. And after going 9-2 in games decided by one-scoring possession two years ago, Tomlin oversaw a team that went 6-4 in games decided by eight points or less. The margins are razor-thin to keep pulling out those close games. If the defense continues its slow slide, then the bottom could quickly fall out from under this team.TENNESSEE TITANS: After making the playoffs for three straight seasons, this is a franchise moving in the wrong direction over the last three years. Coincidentally or not, owner Amy Adams Strunk has been responsible for removing either a head coach or an executive decision-maker in three straight off-seasons. She fired Executive Vice President and general manager Jon Robinson after several underwhelming draft classes in a row and replaced him with Ran Carthon, who had a good reputation as the Director of Player Personnel for the San Francisco 49ers. Two years ago, she decided to fire head coach Mike Vrabel after six seasons due to his lack of “collaboration.” Then, in this offseason, she fired Carthon after two seasons and replaced him with a new management structure with Chad Brinker as the President of Football Operations and Mike Borgonzi as the general manager, after years of serving as an assistant GM with Kansas City. “Collaboration” seems to be code for “let’s get more people into the room so the meddling owner can have spies and play favorites.” To say the least, Stronk is a “character,” who does things like wear Houston Oilers jerseys to their home games where she lives as a reminder that her Texans were their previous franchise. Losing twice to the Texans certainly did not help Vrabel’s cause two years ago. Stronk brought back the old Oilers jerseys for those two games — and she is very emotionally invested in blocking Houston from using similar throwback jerseys with the power blue colors. She’s a handful. In hindsight, I’m not sure if Carthon deserves much of the blame. His first year on the job was an attempt to get on the same page with Vrabel, who had little interest in listening to a new voice on the subject of player personnel. Then last year, under the directive to win now from the owner, he spent over $220 million in free agency on aging veterans who had to be overpaid to get them to come to Tennessee. He drafted two quarterbacks, Malik Willis and Will Levis, whose draft day value had plummeted. The jury is still out on several of his other draft picks — but, regardless, he was thrown under the bus after two seasons for largely following orders. Now it is second-year head coach Brian Callahan who is on the hot seat after last season’s 3-14 record — and the team has to eat $36 million in dead cap money after last year’s spending spree. The Titans ranked second in the NFL by allowing just 311.2 total Yards-Per-Game and only 177.3 passing YPG — but those numbers are lying. Tennessee faced the most rushing attempts in the NFL last season — and they ranked 26th in the league by surrendering 133.9 rushing YPG. Opponents were content to simply run down the Titans throat which happened to also burn time off the clock and help Tennessee’s raw total yardage numbers look better. The Titans ranked 23rd in Expected Points Allowed per play — and they gave up 27.1 Points-Per-Game which was the third most in the league. They only had 32 sacks last season — and then they cut their sack leader, Harold Landry III, in the offseason. On the other side of the ball, Levis was a turnover machine — and the Titans led the league by turning the ball over on 16.8% of their offensive drives. The running back and wide receiver rooms are underwhelming lots, filled with aging veterans and underachieving high draft picks. The offensive line was a disaster for the third straight season last year. The hope is that the free agent signings of left tackle Dan Moore Jr. from Pittsburgh and right guard Kevin Zeitler from Detroit will stabilize the unit and let last year’s first round pick, J.C. Latham, return to right tackle, where he played in college at Alabama. That group needs to get better since the season (and Callahan) will be judged on the development of Cam Ward, the number one pick in the draft. He lacks the mobility of other recent high draft picks like Jayden Daniels. His ability to handle pressure in the pocket was an issue in college. Like Caleb Williams, he tends to play hero ball, which leads to some decisions that could get him into trouble at the next level. Despite completing 67.2% of his passes last year, his accuracy can be an issue. Not many observers predicted the Washington Commanders to break out last year in Daniels' rookie season. Given the talent around him, it seems to be an even bigger leap of faith that Ward could pull off a similar feat with this Tennessee team. Best of luck — Frank.
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