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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 03/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 30, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament begins with a Tuesday doubleheader at Lucas Oil Stadium. The opener tips off at 7:15 PM ET on TBS with USC playing Gonzaga.USC reached the West regional final with their 82-68 victory against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. The Trojans have won six of their last seven games. Isaiah White paved the way with 22 points. The senior guard is fifth on the team with a 7.7 points-per-game scoring average. Evan Mobley scored 10 points on four of six shooting. The 7’0 freshman leads the team with 16.3 points-per-game and 8.8 rebounds-per-game.Andy Enfield has led the program to their first Elite 8 in twenty years. They rank sixth in the nation at kenpom with a 25-7 record. They lost in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals to Colorado, which led them to get a six seed in the East region. USC ranks 14th in the adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They rebound 35.4% of their missed shots, ranking 12th in the nation. The Trojans are fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are sixth in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 43.6% clip due to their stout defense inside the arc as they hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting of their 2-point shots, which is the lowest mark in the nation. Free throw shooting can be frustrating with this team. They only make 64.6% of their shots at the charity stripe, the 327th lowest mark in the nation.Gonzaga advanced to the Elite 8 with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Drew Timme scored 22 points while assisting on another four baskets. The sophomore scores 18.9 points-per-game and averages 7.2 rebounds-per-game. Andrew Nembhard had 17 points with eight assists. The junior is fifth on the team with a 9.2 points-per-game scoring average. Gonzaga is a 9-point favorite with the total set at 153.5. The winner plays the victor of UCLA/Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday.UCLA plays Michigan in an Elite 8 matchup in the East region in the nightcap on TBS at 9:57 PM ET. The Bruins advanced to the East regional finals with an 88-78 upset victory in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point underdog. The Bruins went into halftime leading by 11 points before the Crimson Tide tied the game by scoring the first 11 points of the second half. UCLA thought they had eked out the win in regulation, but Alabama’s Alex Reese nailed a 28-footer to tie the game and force overtime with just 0.4 seconds left in the game. The Bruins scored 23 points in the extended five-minute session for the win. They joined VCU as the only other team in tournament history to advance to the Elite 8 after playing in one of the First Four games. They were an 11 seed.Jaime Jaquez led the team with 17 points. The sophomore is averaging 15.0 points-per-game. Johnny Juzang added 13 points before fouling out in regulation. The former Kentucky transfer is scoring 15.0 points-per-game. Four other players scored in double-digits. UCLA ranks 16th in the kenpom rankings with a 21-9 record. They are 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency using the kenpom metrics. They make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, ranking 34th nationally. The Bruins are 55th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They limit their opponents to rebounding 25.0% of their missed shots, ranking 61st nationally. UCLA has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 50.1%, which is the 178th worst mark in the nation.  Michigan defeated Florida State, 76-58, as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday to reach the Elite 8. The Wolverines forced ten turnovers in the first half (14 overall) and held the Seminoles to below 60 points for the first time all season. Hunter Dickinson scored 14 points with eight rebounds. The 7’1 freshman is scoring 12.8 points-per-game and averaging 6.5 rebounds-per-game. Franz Wagner contributed 13 points and 10 rebounds. The sophomore has a 12.8 points-per-game and 6.5 rebounds-per-game average. The Wolverines continue to thrive even without Isaiah Livers, whose recent stress fracture in his foot officially has him out for the rest of the season. The senior was scoring 13.1 points-per-game while adding 6.0 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 assists-per-game. Junior Brandon Johns takes his place in the starting lineup. The former blue-chip recruit under John Beilein scored 15 points with six rebounds on Sunday. Chaundee Brown is taking more of the scoring burden without Livers. The senior Wake Forest transfer scored 12 points against Florida State. Michigan is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 135.5. Five games are on the NBA docket. Charlotte visits Washington at 7 PM ET. Denver hosts Philadelphia at 9 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 221. Atlanta plays at Phoenix at 10 PM ET. Orlando travels to Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 10 PM ET.Seven games are on the NHL schedule. Five games begin the slate at 7 PM ET. Carolina plays at Chicago on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 PM ET. The Hurricanes are a -152 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The card concludes at 8 PM ET with Nashville playing at home against Dallas. 

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The NBA’s Best & Worst ATS

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Mar 30, 2021

The NBA’s Best & Worst ATSFour teams have covered more than 60% of their games this NBA season. This quartet includes both conference leaders (as of Tuesday, March 30th), one team that’s in second place in its conference and perhaps the biggest surprise team of all. Let’s look at the four and what they’ve done right (so far).Phoenix is 30-15 ATS through 45 games. Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Suns are 38-15 ATS their last 53 games. That’s pretty remarkable. They are 19-6 ATS since Feb 5.  No team has fewer double digit losses this season than the Suns’ three. They are 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency. Being the least “public team” among the top four in the West, the second place Suns should continue to cover games at a fairly high rate.The team ahead of Phoenix in the West is Utah, who is 30-16 ATS. At one point, from mid-January to mid-February, they covered 19 of 21 games. Outside that one incredible stretch, the Jazz have a losing ATS record. They are third in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team has more double digit victories than Utah’s 28. To be honest, it is not even close as the team with the next most is the Clippers (21). The Jazz have been underdogs in only two games all season. They are 17-5 ATS and +14.7 PPG at home. Philadelphia leads the East (for now), though it’s fair to say most expect Brooklyn and/or Milwaukee to catch up to them. But the 76ers have a much better ATS record than those teams. They are 27-17-2 at the betting window entering March 30th, including 9-2-1 so far this month. This team has not lost a game all season when playing with two or more days rest (7-0 SU/6-1 ATS). They are 4-0 ATS as home dogs, a situation that probably won’t arise too many more times. The Sixers are not top 10 in offensive efficiency, but are second in defensive efficiency.New York is 27-18-2 ATS and no one expected them to be challenging for a top four spot in the Eastern Conference. But by virtue of leading the NBA in points allowed, the Knicks are doing just that! Surprisingly, it’s when they are favored that they are a better bet. The chalk record is 12-4 SU/11-5 ATS. A word of caution: injuries have really begun to pile up and threaten to derail this surprising season. Mitchell Robinson just broke his right foot.Our condolences if you’ve been betting the following teams this season …Cleveland is 19-28 ATS. They aren’t good (17-30 SU) but should probably be worse off in the standings. The Cavs have the single worst point differential in the NBA, so expect high spreads and the losses to pile up. They are near the bottom of the Vegas power rankings, but oddsmakers have struggled to make the spreads large enough. Letting Andre Drummond walk certainly won’t help. Against the West, the Cavs are 5-17 ATS (-13.7 PPG).  Indiana is 18-26-1 ATS and an obvious disappointment. They have a losing SU record at home where they are 6-14 ATS. Things would be even worse if not for a league-high four overtime wins. Miami is another disappointment and they are 18-27-2 ATS. There have been six games this season where the Heat have been held to 85 points or less, which is the most in the NBA. They are 8-15-1 ATS at home, but just snapped a six-game losing streak (overall) with a win in New York on Monday night. There’s been some bad luck on South Beach as the Heat are 0-4 SU in overtime games.By far, the worst ATS team in the league is Houston (14-32 ATS). There are no words to describe the depths they have fallen to after the James Harden trade. The Rockets have lost 23 of their last 25 games and last Friday saw them become just the fourth team in NBA history to not score a single point over the final 7:30 of a game. 

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NCAA Basketball Tournament: Elite Eight Round (1991-2021)

by Al McMordie

Monday, Mar 29, 2021

We're 15 games away from crowning the champion of this 2021 NCAA Basketball Tournament, and I would say it's gone as well as could have been expected, given the extenuating circumstances.  Only one game (VCU/Oregon) was cancelled/forfeited due to COVID-19, and there have been upsets galore.  The Elite Eight round starts today with a Monday/Tuesday schedule for the first time.  The match-ups are as follows:Monday:1 Baylor vs 3 Arkansas2 Houston vs 12 Oregon StateTuesday:1 Gonzaga vs 6 USC1 Michigan vs 11 UCLALet's take a look at how the seeds have done, historically, against the spread in the Elite Eight round.  This data is from 1991 through 2019 (there was no Tournament played in 2020).1 seeds:  34-44-2 ATS2 seeds: 23-29-2 ATS3 seeds: 13-18-1 ATS4 seeds: 11-5-1 ATS5 seeds: 8-0 ATS6 seeds: 3-6 ATS7 seeds: 5-3-1 ATS8 seeds: 5-1 ATS9 seeds: 1-2-1 ATS10 seeds: 4-2 ATS11 seeds: 4-1-1 ATS12 seeds: 0-0-1 ATS13 seeds: none14 seeds: none15 seeds: none16 seeds: noneIn Elite Eight match-ups, the better-seeded team has gone 43-68-5 ATS, including 7-12 ATS as an underdog, 4-7 ATS off an upset win, 2-4-1 ATS with revenge, and 12-19 ATS off a point spread loss.  The worse-seeded team has gone 68-43-5 ATS, including 34-16-3 ATS off an upset win (UCLA and Oregon State), and 19-5-1 ATS with revenge, but just 8-9 ATS off a point spread loss (Arkansas).  Overall, favorites are 48-63-5 ATS in the Elite Eight round.Now, let's review how various point spread ranges have done:Underdogs of +3.5 or less:  30-19-1 ATSUnderdogs +4 to +7.5: 19-19-3 ATSUnderdogs +8 to +11.5: 13-8-1 ATSUnderdogs of +12 or more: 1-2 ATSFinally, some other ATS situations to note:Off double-digit wins (and foe not):  22-26-2 ATS (Houston, Baylor)Off double-digit cover (and foe not): 23-19-3 ATS (Oregon State, USC)Off back-to-back covers (and foe not): 33-25-1 ATS (Oregon State and Baylor)Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 03/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 29, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament begins with a Monday doubleheader. The opener tips off at 7:15 PM ET on CBS with Oregon State playing Houston. The Beavers, a 12 seed, have won nine of ten games after their 65-58 upset against Loyola-Chicago as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Ethan Thompson scored 20 points to pave the way. The senior leads the team with a 15.8 points-per-game scoring average. Since the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon State has pulled off six straight victories as an underdog. The Beavers upset Tennessee and Oklahoma State before their win against the Ramblers on Saturday. Oregon State makes its first trip to the Elite 8 since 1982.The Cougars have won ten straight games with their 62-46 win against Syracuse as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Quentin Grimes scored 14 points to lead the Houston effort, with the junior averaging 18.0 points-per-game. Houston defeated Cleveland State and Rutgers before their victory against the Orange. Houston is an 8-point favorite with the total set at 129 (all odds from BetOnline). The winner plays the victor of the Razorbacks/Bears matchup in the Final Four on Saturday. Arkansas plays Baylor on CBS at 9:57 PM ET. The Razorbacks won their third in a row with a 72-70 win against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. Davonte Davis hit the game-winner with 2.9 seconds left in the game. He finished with 16 points. Jalen Tate led the way with 22 points. Arkansas’ top-two scorers against the Golden Eagles are the fourth and fifth-highest scoring players on the team, averaging 10.9 points-per-game and Davis adding 8.3 points-per-game. The Bears have won seven of their last eight games with their 62-51 win against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bears only made three of 19 shots from 3-point range but adjusted in the second half by going inside. Baylor shot 53% from the field in the final 20 minutes, despite making only one 3-pointer. Adam Flagler led the team with 16 points, and Davion Mitchell added 14 points. The Bears are a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5.Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off with Indiana playing Washington at 7 PM ET. The card concludes at 8:30 PM ET, with San Antonio hosting Sacramento as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 228.The NHL has seven games on their schedule. Three games begin the card at 7 PM ET. The New York Islanders play at Pittsburgh on the NBC Sports Network. The Islanders' three-game winning streak came to an end with a 6-3 loss to the Penguins on Saturday. Pittsburgh has won four of their last five games. New York is a -113 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Minnesota visits San Jose at 10:30 PM ET with the Wild a -150 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5.

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NCAA Basketball: Baylor/Arkansas Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 29, 2021

NCAAB Monday CBS Preview: Arkansas versus Baylor. Arkansas plays Baylor in an Elite 8 matchup in the East region on CBS at 9:57 PM ET.The Razorbacks advanced to the opportunity to win the East region with a 72-70 victory against Oral Roberts as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. Davonte Davis hit the game-winner with 2.9 seconds left in the game. He finished with 16 points. Jalen Tate led the way with 22 points. Arkansas’ top-two scorers against the Golden Eagles are the fourth and fifth-highest scoring players on the team, averaging 10.9 points-per-game and Davis adding 8.3 points-per-game. Offensive rebounding was critical for the Razorbacks against the Golden Eagles. Arkansas pulled down 18 offensive rebounds, representing 38.3% of their missed shots, which resulted in 18 second-half points. The Razorbacks held a +11 rebounding edge against Oral Roberts for the game. For the third straight game in this tournament, Arkansas rallied from a double-digit deficit to pull out the win. The Razorbacks defeated Texas Tech, 68-66, and Colgate, 68-55, after falling behind by 10 points and 14 points in those contests.Eric Musselman has seven players who are scoring at least 6.3 points-per-game. Moses Moody leads the way with a 17.0 points-per-game scoring average, with the freshman making 36.7% of his 3-pointers. Justin Smith is second on the team with a 13.8 points-per-game scoring average while leading the team with a 7.3 rebounds-per-game mark. The 6’7 senior is one of the best defensive players in the nation. Connor Vanover is an intriguing contributor. The 7’3 250-lb redshirt sophomore transfer from California is scoring 6.3 points-per-game with 4.5 rebounds-per-game and 1.8 blocks-per-game. He only played four minutes against Oral Roberts, with Musselman concluding he needed to match the Golden Eagles small-ball by going small himself with Smith playing the “five” position.Arkansas ranks 18th in the kenpom ratings with a 25-6 record. They earned a three-seed in the South region after a 9-8 record in the regular season of the SEC. Their highest-profile victories are against Alabama, LSU, Florida, and twice against Missouri. They beat Colgate and Texas Tech to reach the Sweet 16. Their six losses are against Alabama, Missouri, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and twice to LSU. Arkansas is 15th in the nation with an 81.7 points-per-game scoring average. They play at a fast pace on both ends of the court. The Razorbacks are 16th nationally in pace on offense, and they force their opponents to play at the third quickest pace in the country. They rank 47th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They are 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency using the kenpom metrics. Their full-court pressure, which Musselman dubs his “55” defense, forces turnovers in 20.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 83rd nationally. They rank 23rd nationally with a block rate of 13.0%. Baylor won their seventh game in their last eight with their 62-51 victory against Villanova as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bears only made three of 19 shots from 3-point range but adjusted in the second half by going inside. Baylor shot 53% from the field in the final 20 minutes, despite making only one 3-pointer. Adam Flagler led the team with 16 points, with the sophomore averaging 9.0 points-per-game. Davion Mitchell added 14 points. The junior is scoring 14.1 points-per-game, and he leads the team with a 5.3 assists-per-game average. The Baylor defense has been an area of concern since a three-week pause from COVID in February. The Bears had not allowed more than 69 points in their eight conference games before their shutdown after February 2nd. When they returned on February 23rd, they allowed at least 70 points in five Big 12 games and six of seven overall going into the NCAA Tournament. In their three tournament games against Hartford, Wisconsin, and the Razorbacks, Baylor has allowed 56.3 points-per-game with a 41.3% opponent’s field goal percentage. Junior Jared Butler leads the team with a 16.6 points-per-game average. Senior Macio Teague adds 15.7 points-per-game. Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging at least 10.9 minutes per game. Drew had six players return from the Baylor rotation that finished 26-4 last year.The Bears rank third in the kenpom ratings with a 25-2 record. They finished 13-1 in the Big 12 regular season before getting upset in the conference tournament semifinals to Oklahoma State, 83-74. Baylor has wins against Illinois, Texas Tech (twice), Wisconsin, and now Villanova, who all rank in kenpom’s top-twenty. The Bears’ two losses are against Kansas and the Cowboys. They are the top seed in the South region.Baylor is third-best nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to kenpom. They are second in the nation with a 40.8% shooting percentage from 3-point land. They rank sixth in offensive rebounding by grabbing 36.8% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is the 27th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 24.3% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third nationally. If there is a weakness to this team, it is with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.3% of their missed shots, 265th in the nation. The Bears do not get many freebies on the charity stripe, given a free throw rate that ranks 295th nationally.BetAnySports lists Baylor as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 148.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The victor plays the winner of the Oregon State/Houston contest in the Final Four next Saturday. Computer prediction:  Baylor 79 Arkansas 72

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MLB 2021: AL West Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Mar 28, 2021

AL West Division Preview for MLB 2021Houston Astros – Look for the Astros to finish in the upper 80s for a win total this season and challenge Oakland for the top spot in this division as they battle it out. Houston has weathered the storm after the sign-stealing scandal and this team has a deep pitching rotation. Perhaps not as dominant at the top as others but deeper. Also, a solid bullpen and still a solid lineup with a strong infield too. Astros are still a tough team.Los Angeles Angels – These team should be right around .500 but are hard to gauge in my opinion with so many question marks. Bundy, Ohtani, Heaney are the top 3 in the rotation and Bundy struggled so badly not too long ago in Baltimore. Is he totally past all that? What about Ohtani injuries impeding him? Heaney has good stuff but had a mediocre 4.46 ERA last season. Getting a new closer in Iglesias was big and this team has a solid lineup but will the rotation hold up? Starting pitching a key here. Oakland Athletics – Will battle with Houston for top spot in the division and should have a win total in the upper 80s. New closer with Rosenthal instead of Hendricks but overall this is a solid bullpen. Respectable but not dominant rotation. New DH as Khris Davis now with the Rangers. A’s likely better off in that spot now but overall this lineup most produce better. That will be the key to Oakland winning this division. They must hit a little better this season. Keep an eye on that with this team that, thanks to strong management/coaching always seems to manage to do more with less than other teams! Seattle Mariners – Should stay out of the basement in this division thanks to the Rangers but a 90-loss season appears likely. Seattle has Marco Gonzales at top of rotation but never should have traded away Taijuan Walker. Bullpen has former Rangers closer Rafael Montero and some question marks. The lineup is a concern as they were one of worst hitting clubs in the league last season. This will simply be a tough team to trust often. They will have to get their lineup going to even be a threat at getting to a .500 season here. Texas Rangers – This team unlikely to avoid the basement in this division. The Rangers targeted for about mid-60s in wins this season. Kyle Gibson is their number one starter in the rotation. No disrespect to him but he would not be a number one on any other team in the majors. He had a 1.53 WHIP last season! That is only the start of problems with this Texas team. They have major question marks throughout their rotation and their closer Leclerc is off a major shoulder injury and overall the bullpen has a lot of unproven arms heading into the season. The batting lineup one of the worst in the majors and absolutely horrific when it comes to getting on base. A very ugly .285 OBP last season. Rangers could lose 100 games this season unless they get some surprises somewhere. Hope springs eternal at the start of a season but not a lot of it in Texas for these Rangers based on how things look in Arlington. 

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Top 5 Betting Odds for NBA MVP

by Oskeim Sports

Sunday, Mar 28, 2021

The NBA season is reaching its final leg and the race for the playoffs is heating up with several teams in the mix to snag playoff spots. While the playoffs are on everyone’s eyes and minds, the NBA Most Valuable Player race is the other battle that everyone seems to be keeping their eyes on.  Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo won the league MVP award last season, beating out the Lakers’ LeBron James and Houston’s James Harden. Looking at the 2020-2021 season, there are a lot of players that could possibly beat out Antetokounmpo for the award. Starting the year, LeBron and Antetokounmpo were considered to be the betting favorites to win the award.  Here are the top five players with the best odds to win the MVP award for the 2021 season.  5. Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers +1200  One of the most clutch players in the league, Portland’s Damian Lillard is finally getting recognition in the form of the MVP conversation. Last year, in the Orlando Bubble, Lillard won the Bubble MVP Award for his performances. While the Blazers were unable to get far in the playoffs, Lillard’s efforts were noticeable.  This season, Lillard has kept up his high level of play.  Currently, Lillard is averaging 30 points per game and shooting 37.6% from beyond the three-point line.  4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks +900  The reigning MVP currently has the fourth-best odds to win the MVP award in 2021. If Giannis were to win the award again in 2021, he would be the first player to win it back to back since Steph Curry did in 2015-16.  This season, Antetokounmpo is maintaining his MVP-level performance from last season. He is currently averaging just over 28 points per game, as well as 11.5 rebounds per game and 6.4 assists per game.  His team currently sits in the third-place spot in the Eastern Conference and is looking to make a deeper run in the playoffs than they did in Orlando last year.  3. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers +600  If there’s any player in the NBA that has MVP-caliber talents but has rarely been in the conversation, it’s Philadelphia’s center, Joel Embiid.  This season, Embiid is averaging a career-high 29.9 points per game and has helped the Sixers maintain the top spot in the Eastern Conference.  Thanks to his career-high 52.5% field goal percentage, and career-high 42.2% from beyond the arc, Embiid is finally playing like the dominant big man that he was touted to be out of Kansas and then some. He could be a sleeper selection for the MVP award at the end of the season.  2. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers +450  While a high-ankle sprain has somewhat derailed a true MVP season, don’t count LeBron James out of the MVP race for the 2021 season.  He still currently sits with the second-best odds to win the award, and for good reason.  The 36-year old James was averaging just over 25 points per game before his ankle injury and had the Lakers rolling towards a powerful finish of the regular season.  If James comes back from his injury and continues to play at the high level that he was, there’s no doubt he’ll be a top finalist for the MVP award at the end of the season.  He should still be considered a heavy betting favorite, as it is likely unwise to bet against the superstar.  1.  Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets +110  If you asked Denver Nuggets fans who the league MVP would be at the beginning of the NBA season, they would have vehemently told you that center Nikola Jokic would be the MVP.  At this point, Jokic is the current betting favorite to win the MVP award after LeBron’s ankle injury. Even without James’ injury, though, Jokic is playing like the league MVP. Jokic currently leads the Nuggets in every metric including minutes played, points per game, and field goal percentage.  The 25-year old Serbian is currently averaging a career-high 27 points per game and is nearly averaging a triple-double with 11 rebounds per game and over eight assists a game.  If you’re looking for a sure bet for MVP, Jokic is almost a lock to win the award. 

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European Soccer: What To Look For After The Break

by Power Sports

Sunday, Mar 28, 2021

Like every other bettor, the NCAA Tournament has been my main focus in March. But now is also a good time to take inventory “across the pond” as the four major European soccer leagues are set to resume this week after an international break. What I’ll do here is look at the races for the Champions League spots (top four) as well as the races to avoid relegation (bottom three) in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and La Liga. Premier League Current Top Four: Manchester City (71 points), Manchester United (57), Leicester City (56), Chelsea (51)Man City is obviously running away from the pack. They can cement their status as the top side in Europe by winning the Champions League two months from now. Man U and Leicester City, the latter being a bit of a surprise, both seem pretty safe when it comes to UCL qualifying for next season. It’s a little interesting that Man U is the only one of the top four not in the semis of this season’s FA Cup. Chelsea has drawn Man City in the FA Cup semis and has just a two point lead over fifth place West Ham in the EPL. Among teams currently outside the top four, I believe Tottenham (48 points) would be the most likely to break through.Current Bottom Three: Fulham (26 points), West Bromwich Albion (18), Sheffield United (14)West Brom and Sheffield are both locks to be relegated next season. I expect Fulham to catch and pass Newcastle United (28 points) even though the Magpies have a game in hand. Currently, Newcastle has an inferior goal differential and one more loss than Fulham, who is desperately trying to avoid a “one and done” in the English top flight (they were promoted this season).Bundesliga Current Top Four: Bayern Munich (61 points), RB Leipzig (57), VfL Wolfsburg (51), Eintracht Frankfurt (47)As was expected, Bayern and Leipzig are both locks to finish 1-2. The big question is whether the two “upstarts” - Wolfsburg and Frankfurt - can maintain their current positions. They both have the same number of losses (3) as the top two sides. Wolfsburg, with an eight-point cushion, should feel fairly safe. Frankfurt, who has been beaten just one time since Jan 12, is a side I expected to be improved this campaign. More “decorated” sides - Borussia Dortmund (43 points) and Bayer Leverkusen (40) - are in the rear view mirror. A match this Saturday at Dortmund looms large, though so do BVB’s nine defeats. I think Wolfsburg and Frankfurt hold on.Current Bottom Three: FC Cologne (23), Arminia Bielefeld (22), Schalke 04 (10)The key here is the team that finishes third from the bottom enters a relegation playoff with the team that finishes third in Bundesliga 2, so it’s not automatic relegation. Obviously, Schalke is going to be relegated. But above them, five teams are separated by just two points and that includes Hertha Berlin (24) and Mainz (24). Right now, Mainz is the highest they’ve been in the table all season. I would not be surprised if they fell back into the relegation zone. Bielefeld is probably a good bet to finish in the bottom three as well. My guess is Koln lives to fight in the German top flight another year. Serie ACurrent Top Four: Internazionale (65 points), AC Milan (59), Juventus (55), Atalanta (55)Inter is set to end Juve’s nine-year run atop Serie A. I expect Juve and Atalanta to also comfortably finish within the top four. In fifth place is Napoli (53 points), who has a better YTD goal differential than Milan, one that is on par with Juve and Atalanta. But the fact that Milan has a nine-point cushion over Napoli is huge. Napoli having been beaten eight times is a killer. The big dropoff (in points) in Serie A comes between 7th and 8th place, but I feel both AS Roma (50 points) and Lazio (49) are closer to the mid-table sides than they are the top five. Goal differential certainly backs my assessment up there. Two of Napoli’s next three matches are very winnable, so they can catch Milan, who seems curiously underpriced for their next two fixtures. But Napoli must make their move now.Current Bottom Three: Cagliari (22 points), Parma (19), Crotone (15)Parma and Crotone are getting relegated. Cagliari likely joins them as the one thing I’m fairly confident in projecting at the bottom of the Serie A table is that Torino (23 points) will AVOID relegation. Torino has a better GD than the two sides ahead of them. One of those is Benevento, whose -24 GD is third worst in the league. But they have 29 points and having a seven point edge over the bottom three is huge right now. I’d say if there’s one team that could fall into the bottom three, it’s Benevento as Torino should pass them by season’s end.La LigaCurrent Top Four: Atletico Madrid (66 points), Barcelona (62), Real Madrid (60), Sevilla FC (55)This race has been decided for some time now as there’s a 10 point gap between the top four and everyone else. If Barca can pull off finishing first over Atletico, it would be an incredible achievement given how we all viewed the two sides a couple months ago. I have no idea how Real Betis (45 points) has caught Real Sociedad for 5th, given their terrible start to the season. I think Sociedad and Villareal deserve to finish above Betis and Granada, but it’s been a somewhat strange season in La Liga. Current Bottom Three: Eibar (23 points), Alaves (23), HuescaUnlike the other three leagues, there are no locks for relegation yet. If I had to guarantee one, I’d say Alaves, who has the worst GD (-21) and most losses (15). There are five clubs that are seven or fewer points clear of safety right now. Among them, I’d say Cadiz is the most vulnerable based on GD. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NHL and NBA Previews and Odds - 03/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 28, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament concludes with four games. The opener tips off at 2:10 PM ET with Creighton playing Gonzaga on CBS. The Bluejays, seeded fifth, have won five of six games after defeating Ohio as a 1.5-point favorite last Monday. The Bulldogs, the top seed in the tournament, advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 87-71 victory against Oklahoma as a 15.5-point favorite on Monday. Gonzaga is a 13-point favorite with the total set at 158.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Hinkle Fieldhouse is the site. The winner plays the victor of Oregon/USC in the West regional final.Florida State faces Michigan on CBS at 5 PM ET. The Seminoles, a four-seed, upset Colorado, 71-53, as a 2.5-point underdog last Monday. The Wolverines, a one-seed, beat LSU, 86-78, as a 5-point favorite last Monday. Michigan is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. The winner plays the victor of UCLA/Alabama in the East regional final. UCLA battles Alabama on TBS at 7:15 PM ET. The Bruins, an 11 seed, won their third straight game with a 67-47 victory against Abilene Christian as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The Crimson Tide, a two-seed, won their eighth straight with their 96-77 win against Maryland as a 6-point favorite on Monday. Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite, with the total at 145.5. Hinkle Fieldhouse is the site. Oregon goes against USC on TBS at 9:45 PM ET. The Ducks, a seven seed, has won seven of their last eight games with their 95-80 upset win against Iowa on Monday. The Trojans, a six-seed, has won five of six after defeating Kansas, 85-51, as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. USC is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. The championship of the National Invitational Tournament tips off at noon PM ET on ESPN with Mississippi State playing Memphis. The Bulldogs advanced to the finals with an 84-62 upset win against Louisiana Tech as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Tigers reached the finals with their 90-67 victory against Colorado State as a 4.5-point favorite yesterday. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with the total at 135.5. Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas, is the site. Louisiana Tech plays Colorado State in the third-place consolation game on ESPN at 3 PM ET. This game is a pick ‘em with an over/under of 140.5. Comerica Park is the neutral court. Four games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 1 PM ET, with Philadelphia visiting Charlotte. The schedule concludes at 10 PM ET with the Los Angeles Lakers hosting Orlando at 10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with a total of 208.Six games are on the NHL slate. Washington plays at home against the New York Rangers on NBC at noon PM ET. The Capitals have won nine of their last ten games after a 4-0 shutout win against New Jersey on Friday. The Rangers had their three-game winning streak end on Saturday in a 2-1 loss in Philadelphia. Washington is a -134 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Columbus visits Detroit on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET. The Bluejackets lost their third in a row after their 3-1 loss at Detroit yesterday. The Red Wings ended a three-game losing streak with the triumph. Columbus is a -150 money line road favorite with the total at 6.Boston hosts New Jersey on the NBC Sports Network at 5:30 PM ET. The Bruins have won three of four with their 3-2 win against Buffalo on Saturday. The Devils lost their second straight game with their 4-0 loss to Washington. Boston is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Nashville plays at Chicago on the NBC Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Predators won their fourth straight on Saturday with a 3-1 win at Chicago. The Blackhawks have lost five of their last seven games.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 03/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 27, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament tips off at 2:40 PM ET. Oregon State plays Loyola-Chicago on CBS. The Beavers, seeded 12th, have won eight of their last nine games after their 80-70 upset win against Oklahoma State as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Ramblers, seeded eighth, have won eight straight with their 71-578 upset win against Illinois as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. Loyola-Chicago is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 125.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The winner plays the victor of Syracuse/Houston in the Midwest regional final on Monday. Villanova battles Baylor on CBS at 5:15 PM ET. The Wildcats, a fifth seed, advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bears, the number one seed in the South region, have won six of seven with their 76-63 win against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baylor is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The winner plays the victor of Oral Roberts/Arkansas in the South regional final on Monday.Oral Roberts faces Arkansas on TBS at 7:25 PM ET. The Golden Eagles, seeded 15th, have won seven in a row after their 81-78 upset victory against Florida on Sunday. The Razorbacks, a three-seed, upset Texas Tech, 68-66, as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Bankers Life Fieldhouse is the site. Arkansas is an 11-point favorite with the total at 158.5. Syracuse plays Houston on TBS at 9:55 PM ET. The Orange, seeded 11th, have won five of six with their 75-72 win against West Virginia as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Cougars, a two-seed, won their ninth straight game with their 63-60 win against Rutgers as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. Hinkle Fieldhouse is the neutral court. Houston is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 140.5.The semifinals of the National Invitational take place on ESPN at Comerica Center in Frisco, Texas. Memphis plays Colorado State in the opener at 1 PM ET. The Tigers defeated Boise State, 59-56, as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. The Rams upset North Carolina State, 65-61, as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with the total at 138.The second semifinals contest has Mississippi State playing Louisiana Tech at 3:30 PM ET. Mississippi State won three of four with their 68-67 victory against Richmond as a 4-point favorite on Thursday. Louisiana Tech has won eight of nine after their 72-65 victory against Western Kentucky in a pick ‘em contest on Thursday. Mississippi State is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5.Nine games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 8 PM ET with three games. The schedule closes out at 10 PM ET with Cleveland visiting Sacramento and Philadelphia playing at Los Angeles against the Clippers. None of the games are on national television. The NHL has 11 games on the schedule. The puck drops at 1 PM ET with two games. The New York Rangers play at Philadelphia as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Boston hosts Buffalo as a -355 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games conclude the card at 10 PM ET, with Winnipeg playing at Calgary and San Jose visiting Arizona.

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NCAA Basketball: Florida State/Michigan Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 27, 2021

Florida State plays Michigan in a Sweet 16 matchup in the East region on CBS at 5:15 PM ET.The Seminoles advanced to the Sweet 16 with a 71-53 upset victory against Colorado as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. Anthony Polite scored a career-high 22 points in the win. The junior is averaging 10.2 points-per-game, and he is among five players scoring at least 9.2 points-per-game for Leonard Hamilton. Senior M.J. Walker leads the team with a 12.3 points-per-game scoring average. Florida State ranks 13th in the kenpom ratings with an 18-6 record. They finished 11-4 in the regular season of the ACC before losing to Georgia Tech, 80-75, in the conference championship game. They were seeded fourth in the East region. The Seminoles rank 14th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They are 19th in the nation with an offensive rebounding rate of 34.8%, and they are making 38.2% of their 3-pointers, 16th nationally. The Seminoles ranks 31st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have an opponent’s field goal percentage of 43.9% inside the arc, which is the 10th lowest mark in the nation. They block 14.6% of their opponent's shots, the 11th best mark nationally. They are vulnerable to teams that crash the offensive glass. Their opponents rebound 31.6% of their missed shots, ranking 296th nationally. Michigan defeated LSU, 86-78, as a five-point favorite on Monday. The Wolverines fell behind by nine points early before rallying for the victory. Eli Brooks and Chaundree Brown each scored 21 points. The seniors are averaging 9.7 and 7.0 points-per-game. Hunter Dickinson added 12 points with 11 rebounds. The freshman is averaging 14.2 points-per-game and 7.5 rebounds-per-game. Franz Wagner had 15 points with seven rebounds to improve his 12.8 points-per-game and 6.3 rebounds-per-game averages. The Wolverines are without Isaiah Livers, whose recent stress fracture in his foot likely has him out for the rest of the season. The senior was scoring 13.1 points-per-game while adding 6.0 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 assists-per-game. Junior Brandon Johns takes his place in the starting lineup. The former blue-chip recruit under John Beilein scored seven points with five rebounds in 27 minutes on Monday. The Wolverines rank third at kenpom with a 22-4 record. They won the Big Ten regular-season title with a 14-3 mark. Their three losses were against Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Michigan is the only Big Ten team that made the Sweet 16. They earned the top seed in the East region.Michigan ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Wolverines are 18th with an effective field goal percentage of 55.2%. They are making 38.5% of their 3-point shots, ranking 11th nationally. Michigan is ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are sixth in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 44.5% mark. They rank third nationally by limiting their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc. Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is the site. BookMaker lists Michigan as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 143.5. The winner plays the victor of the UCLA/Alabama matchup in the East regional final on Tuesday.Computer prediction:  Michigan 72 Florida State 71

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MLB 2021: NL Central Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

NL Central Division Preview for MLB 2021Chicago Cubs – This team will struggle to get to .500 this season and is likely to finish in the mid to upper 70s for a win total. The Cubs Hendricks and Davies are now sandwiched with Arrieta at the top of the rotation but the latter was ultimately a bust in Philly. The problem with the Cubs is more than just having only a top two in the rotation. Chicago hit just .220 as a team last season and their lineup strikes out too much.Cincinnati Reds – The Reds should finish slightly above .500 but this team has to start hitting better. They were dead last season in the National League and are forced to rely far too much on their pitching staff. The rotation and bullpen both look rock solid but, again, will this team score enough runs? Probably enough to be competitive but not enough to win this division. Milwaukee Brewers – This team should compete with Cincinnati and battle the Cardinals for the top spot in the division. The Brewers have Woodruff and Burnes for a great 1-2 combo at the top of the rotation and then the bullpen is also stacked with the 1-2 punch of Williams and Hader. One of the issues with this team though is a lineup that piles up the strikeouts. I don’t see where that has been fixed and, though they have some pop, they don’t get on base enough and could struggle against strikeout pitchers.Pittsburgh Pirates – This could be the worst team in baseball this season. The Pirates may not even get to 60 wins. In fact if I would have to get a range I would say between 54 and 59 wins is a likely area for this team’s win total to fall into. Yes, Pittsburgh is that bad! The Pirates lost Jameson Taillon to the Yankees. The rotation has Keller at the top but a lot of question marks behind it. The team seems to be in a constant rebuild. Rodriguez a solid closer but how much will he be needed considering the Pirates are unlikely to have a ton of late leads! The Bucs had the worst slugging percentage and on base percentage in baseball last season. Will be a long season in Pittsburgh! St Louis Cardinals – This team should win the division though the Brewers and Reds will do their best to prevent that. I project the Cardinals to get into the upper 80s with their win total this season. The Cardinals did not hit particularly well last season but the good news is the other 4 teams in the division also have that issue. In fact the NL Central comprised the bottom 5 of the 15-team NL when you look at team batting average last season. St Louis did rate about 10 points better than everyone else in the division though and picking up Nolan Arenado which pushes a fading Matt Carpenter out of the lineup could prove to be a big plus for this team. A concern for the Cardinals is when Kim and Mikolas will be back in the rotation. Kim should only miss his 1st start or 2 of the year but Mikolas situation not as favorable. This will be something to keep an eye on but St Louis still looks like the team to beat in this division. 

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