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Ness Notes: From Sweet to Elite to Final 4 (Mar 27-30)

by Larry Ness

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

With the 2021 Masters coming up April 8-11, we'll often hear Jim Nantz say "A tradition unlike any other." The saying has even been trademarked by Augusta National and now adorns tournament merchandise. With deference to Nantz and The Masters, I think it's more than fair to 'borrow' that phrase and call the 2021 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, "A tournament unlike any other." For starters, this year's tournament has been contested at a number of notable venues throughout Central Indiana, including Lucas Oil Stadium (home of the NFL's Colts), Bankers Life Fieldhouse (home of the NBA's Pacers), Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Butler University’s Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana University’s Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall and Purdue University’s Mackey Arena. Each of the six 2021 NCAA Tournament venues has a storied history that goes beyond college basketball. No time to recap, so you'll trust me (the check's in the mail).The First Four was contested on Thursday March 18 and we got an early preview of things to come. The lone favorite to win was Drake, which edged Wichita St 53-52. As the tourney was down to 64 teams and headed for the First Round (March 19 and 20), favorites were 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS. 32 games were scheduled last Friday and Saturday but as all know, VCU was forced to forfeit its Saturday game to Oregon due to COVID issues. Over the other 31 games, favorites would go 19-12 SU but just 12-19 ATS. No. 1 seeds won all four games against their 16th-seeded opponents (now 143-1 all-time), although they were just 2-2 ATS. In all, NINE double-digit seeds won SU in the first round, including No. 15 Oral Roberts (just the 9th 15-seed to win an opener), No. 14 Abilene Christian, two No. 13 seeds (North Texas and Ohio U), a No. 12 seed plus two No. 11 and two No. 10 seeds.Moving to Sunday, favorites went just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS, As the second round got set to complete 'Day 2' on Monday, favorites were only 22-17 SU (.564) and a 'money-burning' 14-25 ATS (35.9%). The tourney's fifth day saw No. 7 seed Oregon (+5) beat No. 2 seed Iowa 95-80 and the refrain was, "Here we go again." However, favorites would go 7-0 SU & ATS in the day's final seven games. As all teams took a four-day break before beginning Sweet 16 play on Saturday (March 27), favorites sit 29-18 (.617) and 21-26 ATS (44.7%).OK, so why have I called this "A tournament unlike any other?" Consider the following factoids. The NCAA defines an upset as a team seeded five spots or lower than their opponent. A new record has already been set this year with 12 such "upsets" and there hasn't been a Sweet 16 game played yet. That's hardly all. Double digit seeds set a record by winning 14 games in the 2016 tournament (no counting First Four contests) and after four days of 1st and 2nd round games, that figure has been matched at 14, with FOUR of those double digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16. For the record, the list includes No. 15 Oral Roberts and No. 12 Oregon St plus No. 11 seeds Syracuse and UCLA. Upset possibilities typically become limited at this stage of the tournament but there are three among the eight Sweet 16 games. No. 15 Oral Roberts faces No. 3 Arkansas, plus both No. 11 seeds are 'in play,' Syracuse against No. 2 Houston and UCLA against No. 2 Alabama. This should grab your attention. The combined seeds in this year's Sweet 16 add up to 94, eclipsing the record of 89 set back in 1986. Seeding began back in 1979 (anyone remember Bird vs Magic?). There was no tourney last year but in 2019 (UVa's championship season), the combined seeds of Sweet 16 teams added up to just 49! One tourney apart, it's gone from 49 to 94, a numerical palindrome.All No. 1 seeds won in the first round but Illinois was 'bounced' in the second round by 8th-seeded Loyola-Chicago. The good news for No. 1 seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan) is that they've gone 97-23 (.808) in Sweet 16 games and for those who advance to the Elite 8, those teams have gone 57-40 (.588). No. 2 seeds still in it are Alabama and Houston and No. 2 seeds are 64-25 (.719) in Sweet 16 games but the winners are just 29-35 (.453) in Elite 8 games. Checking in on the double digit seeds, No. 11 seeds (Syracuse and UCLA this tourney) have won just EIGHT of 22 Sweet 16 games but of the eight that have advanced to the Elite, HALF (four) have made the Final Four. Oregon St is a No. 12 seed and it's NOT good news that of the previous 20 teams seeded No. 12 to make the Sweet 16, just ONE has advanced to the Elite 8. The 2002 Missouri Tigers are the only 12-seed to ever make the Elite 8, where they lost 81-75 to No. 2 Oklahoma. Not for nothing but Quin Snyder was Missouri's head coach that season. Anyone know what he's doing these days? 15th-seeded Oral Roberts is the 'longest shot' still in the tourney, as the Golden Eagles join the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (pretty close nicknames, right?) as the only two No. 15 seeds to make the Sweet 16. That "Dunk City" team lost 62-50 to No. 3 Florida.The seven other teams comprising the Sweet 16 are No. 3 Arkansas, No. 4 FSU, two No. 5s in Creighton and Villanova, No. 6 USC, No. 7 Oregon and No. 8 Loyola-Chicago. Of seeds 3 through 8 making the Sweet 16, the seed with the best winning percentage is the No. 8 seed, going 8-5. Of the eight Sweet 16 winners, FIVE advanced to the Final Four and THREE to the championship game. The Kansas Jayhawks of 1988, led by Danny Manning and coached by the infamous Larry Brown, won it all beating Oklahoma 83-79! Seeds 3 through 7 have done very poorly in Sweet 16 games, going a combined 90-166 (.352). No. 5 seeds (watch out Creighton and Villanova) own the worst record among the aforementioned group, going 9-38 (.191). However, of the nine that advanced to the Elite 8, SEVEN made the Final 4. However, a No. 5 seed has NEVER won the national championship.This tournament began with no Duke or Kentucky in the field for the first time since 1976. The 1975-76 season was also memorable because it's the last time a team entered the tourney No. 1 AND unbeaten to go on and capture the title (Bobby's Knight's Hoosiers). This season the Gonzaga Bulldogs have a chance to match that feat and do so right in the "heart of Indiana'' (Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis). No. 1 seeds have won 22 titles since 1979, while No. 2 seeds have claimed five titles and No. 3 seeds have won four titles. As noted, one No. 8 seed has won a title and a No. 5 seed has never won one (see above for both examples). One No. 4 seed has won (Arizona in 1997), one No. 6 seed won (Jimmy V's 1983 NC State team) and one No. 7 seed won (UConn in 2014).Enjoy the rest of March Madness.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Basketball: Baylor/Villanova Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

Villanova plays Baylor in a Sweet 16 matchup in the South region on CBS at 5:15 PM ET.The Wildcats advanced to their third Sweet 16 in the last five tournaments with an 84-61 victory against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Villanova nailed 15 of 30 shots from 3-point land, with eight different players contributing. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl scored 18 points, and Jermaine Samuels added 15 points. The Wildcats won the National Championship under Jay Wright in 2016 and 2018, the last two times the program reached the Sweet 16.Villanova has adapted to being without Collin Gillespie, who suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this month. The senior point guard was averaging 14.0 points-per-game with 3.3 rebounds-per-game and 4.6 assists-per-game. Wright has shifted the offense to revolve around Robinson-Earl, who has averaged 20.0 points-per-game and 8.5 rebounds-per-game in his two games in this NCAA Tournament. The 6’9 sophomore averages 16.0 points-per-game and 8.3 rebounds-per-game for the season. Justin Moore has taken on more of the point guard duties in Gillespie’s absence. The sophomore averaged 15.0 points-per-game and 3.5 assists-per-game in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Wildcats rank 11th in the kenpom ratings with an 18-6 record. They finished 11-4 in the Big East regular season before getting upset by Georgetown, 72-71, in the conference tournament quarterfinals in their second game without Gillespie. Wright has seen eight games postponed this season, including six straight during a COVID pause in late December through mid-January. They have registered three wins against NCAA Tournament teams: Creighton, UConn, and Texas. They earned the fifth seed in the South region.Villanova ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They lead the nation with a turnover rate of 13.8%. They make 35.8% of their 3-point shots, ranking 72nd nationally, with 45.1% of their field goal attempts being from distance, ranking 27th nationally. They have a balanced attack with four players averaging at least 9.9 points-per-game even after losing Gillespie. The Wildcats are 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are fourth in the Big East with a defensive turnover rate of 19.4%. Villanova has an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%, with these foes making 34.9% of their 3-point attempts, ranking 221st and 238th nationally.Baylor won their sixth game in their last seven with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Davion   Mitchell led the team with 16 points. The Bears forced 14 turnovers which represented 21.9% of the Badgers’ possessions. The Baylor defense has been an area of concern since a three-week pause from COVID in February. The Bears had not allowed more than 69 points in their eight conference games before their shutdown after February 2nd. When they returned on February 23rd, they allowed at least 70 points in five Big 12 games and six of seven overall going into the NCAA Tournament. In their two tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin, Baylor allowed 59.0 points-per-game with a 40.4% opponent’s field goal percentage. Junior Jared Butler leads the team with a 16.9 points-per-game average. Senior Macio Teague adds 16.1 points-per-game, with Mitchell contributing another 14.1 points-per-game. Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging at least 10.9 minutes per game. Drew had six players return from the Baylor rotation that finished 26-4 last year.The Bears rank third in the kenpom ratings with a 24-2 record. They finished 13-1 in the Big 12 regular season before getting upset in the conference tournament semifinals to Oklahoma State, 83-74. Baylor has wins against Illinois, Texas Tech (twice), and Wisconsin, who rank in kenpom’s top-twenty. The Bears’ two losses are against Kansas and the Cowboys. They are the top seed in the South region.Baylor is third-best nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to kenpom. They lead the nation with a 41.5% shooting percentage from 3-point land. They rank sixth in offensive rebounding by grabbing 36.7% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is the 37th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 24.7% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking third nationally. If there is a weakness to this team, it is with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 30.2% of their missed shots, 261st in the nation. The Bears do not get many freebies on the charity stripe, given a free throw rate that ranks 288th nationally.BetAnySports lists Baylor as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 141.5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. The victor plays the winner of the Arkansas/Oral Roberts contest.Computer prediction: Baylor 75 Villanova 66

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NCAA Sweet 16 Bracketology

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

We've reached the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament with some expected names but also a number of 'Cinderellas' rounding out the remaining field. Here's a look at where you can still find value in the futures market, with three upset-minded teams that aren't ready to put away their dancing shoes just yet. To reach Final FourOregon (+650)The Ducks were actually my pre-tournament pick to come out of the West Region and I still like their chances even with arguably the best team in the country, Gonzaga, residing in that region as well. Just to play Devil's Advocate when it comes to the top-ranked Bulldogs, let's say Creighton gets hot from beyond the arc (as it is known to do) and stages the improbable but possible Sweet 16 upset. That would leave the Ducks with only a talented but inconsistent Blue Jays squad standing between them and a Final Four appearance - assuming Oregon can get past Pac-12 rival USC of course. The oddsmakers have certainly done their homework and Oregon is accurately priced to reach the Final Four, but I'm higher than most on the Ducks and feel now might be a favorable time to take a shot for a potential big return. Villanova (+550)The Wildcats are another team that I had pegged to reach the Final Four (even if I thought they would get a much tougher game from Winthrop in the opening round - oops) prior to the tournament tipping off last week. I've never been one to underestimate Jay Wright's 'Nova squads and even without Colin Gillespie we've seen the Wildcats cruise through two rounds, setting up a favorable Sweet 16 showdown with one-seed Baylor. The Bears have of course rounded back into form following a poor showing in the Big 12 Tournament. However, if one of the three top seeds remaining are going to make an unceremonious exit prior to the Elite Eight they might just be the team. Should the Wildcats upset Baylor on Saturday they would likely match up against a beatable Arkansas squad in the Elite Eight (unless Oral Roberts decides the slipper still fits). Either way, I see value with 'Nova at a healthy return to find its way into the Final Four, noting it is currently priced at around +240 to beat Baylor. Florida State (+300)Full disclosure, I had Alabama (currently priced at +180) coming out of the East Region prior to the tournament, which is still well within the realm of possibility. However, based on what I've seen so far in this tourney, I'd be willing to take a shot with the Seminoles priced at +300 or better. Michigan needed everything it had in the tank to get past LSU in the Round of 32 and draws an even tougher matchup against fourth-seeded Florida State in the Sweet 16. After scoring 80+ points without Isaiah Livers in their first two tournament games, I believe the Wolverines could be ripe for the upset against the 'Noles - who can hang with UM at both ends of the floor. Of course, it would by no means be a true shocker as Florida State is just a slight 2.5-point underdog at the time of writing. Alabama should get past UCLA, which would set up a reasonable matchup for the 'Noles in the Elite Eight, noting that LSU laid out a pretty good blueprint for beating the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game, even if the Tigers ultimately fell a point short. *Note that Sean's individual game selections are independent of the recommendations on futures bets above. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 03/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 26, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA and the NHL.Eleven games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with Brooklyn visiting Detroit. The Nets come off a 118-88 loss at Utah as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday. The Pistons have lost six of their last eight games after a 116-111 loss at Indiana as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Milwaukee hosts Boston in the opening game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Bucks won their eighth straight game with a 121-119 win against the Celtics as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston has lost five of their last six games. Milwaukee is a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 233 (all odds from BetOnline).Phoenix visits Toronto at 7:30 PM ET. The Suns had their three-game winning streak end with a 112-111 upset loss at Toronto as a 9.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Raptors snapped their nine-game losing streak with a 135-111 upset win against Denver as a 1.5-point underdog. Phoenix is a 4.5-point road favorite. Denver travels to New Orleans at 8 PM ET. The Nuggets have lost two of three with their upset loss at Toronto on Wednesday. The Pelicans have won four of six with their 128-111 win against the Lakers as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Denver is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Minnesota plays at home against Houston at 8 PM ET. The Timberwolves have lost three in a row with their 128-108 loss to Denver as an 8.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Rockets have lost 21 of their last 22 games after a 122-97 setback to Charlotte as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday. Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite. Portland plays at Orlando at 8 PM ET. The Trail Blazers come off a 125-122 win at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Magic come off a 112-111 upset win at Phoenix as a 9.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Portland is a 1-point road favorite. Miami visits Charlotte at 8 PM ET. The Heat lost their fifth in a row with their loss to the Trail Blazers last night. The Hornets have won two in a row with their 122-97 victory at Houston as a 4-point favorite on Wednesday. Dallas is at home against Indiana at 8:30 PM ET. The Mavericks have won three of four with their 128-108 victory at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Pacers won their third in four games with their 116-111 victory against Detroit on Wednesday. Dallas is a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 227.Utah hosts Memphis at 9 PM ET. The Jazz won their third in a row with their 30-point win against Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are on a three-game winning streak after a 116-107 victory at Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Utah is a 9.5-point with an over/under of 226.5.Atlanta visits Golden State in the nightcap on ESPN at 10 PM ET. The Hawks have lost two in a row after their 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. The Warriors lost their third straight with their blowout loss to Sacramento last night. Atlanta is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 220.5. Cleveland visits the Los Angeles Lakers at 10:30 PM ET. The Cavaliers won their second game in their last three games with a 103-94 upset victory at Chicago as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Lakers lost their fourth straight game with a 109-101 loss to Philadelphia as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Four games are on the NHL schedule. The slate begins at 7 PM ET, with Washington hosting New Jersey as a -193 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. St. Louis plays at home against Anaheim at 8 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Arizona is at home against San Jose at 10 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary is the home team against Winnipeg at 10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with a total of 6.

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MLB 2021: AL Central Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 25, 2021

AL Central Division Preview for MLB 2021Chicago White Sox – The White Sox projected to win about 90 games this season and certainly that is hard to argue with. The additions include Adam Eaton and Lance Lynn. That bolsters the outfield and the starting rotation respectively and you have to like the pitching here. Chicago has Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, and Lynn at the top of the rotation! Cleveland Indians – Projected to play about .500 ball this season but this is a team that has had 8 consecutive winning seasons. That said, it is hard to imagine the Indians not challenging the White Sox and Twins at the top of this division. Cleveland has Bieber and Plesac at the top of the rotation. Also, Quantrill expected to be a starter and he was strong last season out of the pen. With the young, strong arm of McKenzie in the mix, if Civale also steps up this season this is a very tough rotation. The concern will be getting enough out of the hitters for sure. Detroit Tigers – This team will battle with the Royals to stay out of the cellar in the division. Which team will get to 70 wins, if even that, is the question! The Tigers are in a rebuild mode, as per usual. Manager AJ Hinch could certainly get things going in the right direction with this team but they are still lacking talent right now and have to build slowly due to some payroll missteps that have hamstrung them. Casey Mize is a solid young arm in the rotation but Matthew Boyd has greatly regressed. As for the lineup, not nearly enough power with this club. Kansas City Royals – This team will battle with the Tigers to stay out of the cellar in the division. Which team will get to 70 wins, if even that, is the question! This team looks better than Detroit though. Some good team speed, good young players that are already developing, solid defensively, but will they get enough hitting? Also, behind Keller who is solid in the rotation, the Royals will need more from Singer and especially Minor after he regressed. Minnesota Twins – This team could (and should) challenge the White Sox for the top spot in the division. One has to like your chances when your top three in the rotation are Maeda, Berrios, and Pineda. This team also has a lot of pop in its lineup with plenty of longball power. The Twins just need to hit for higher average and do a better job of getting guys on base at the top of the order and they would then definitely be the team to beat in this division. This team has excellent management and I mean from the manager of the team all the way up to the top in the front office and they are going to challenge Chicago this season. Look for at least 90 wins out of the Twins this season and if the pitching holds up they could win this division. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NHL and NBA Previews and Odds - 03/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 25, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, the NHL, and NCAA basketball.The NCAA basketball quarterfinals of the NIT take place with four games. The card tips off at 6 PM ET with Mississippi State playing Richmond. The Bulldogs won their second game in their last three with their 74-68 upset win against Saint Louis as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Spiders ended a three-game losing streak in the NIT quarterfinals with a 76-66 upset win against Toledo as a 5-point underdog last Wednesday. The Super Pit in Denton, Texas, is the site for this game that is on ESPN2. Mississippi State is a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 137.5 (all odds from BetOnline). North Carolina State faces Colorado State on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Wolfpack have won six of their last seven games after their 75-61 victory against Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite last Thursday. The Rams have won two of three games with a 75-73 victory against Buffalo as a 2-point favorite in the quarterfinals on Friday. Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas, is the location. NC State is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.Memphis battles Boise State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Tigers have won two of their last three games with their 71-60 win against Dayton as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. The Broncos ended a four-game losing streak in the quarterfinals with their 85-84 win in a pick ‘em matchup with SMU last Thursday. The Super Pit is the neutral court. Memphis is a 4-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Louisiana Tech faces Western Kentucky on ESPN2 at 10 PM ET. The Bulldogs have won seven of their last eight games after a 70-61 upset win against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog on Friday. The Hilltoppers won their fourth game in their last five with their 69-67 upset win against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog in the quarterfinals last Wednesday. Comerica Park is the neutral court. Louisiana Tech is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 137.Five games are on the NBA docket. A doubleheader on TNT begins at 7:30 PM ET with Portland visiting Miami. The Trail Blazers have lost two in a row with their 116-112 upset loss to Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. The Heat got upset for the fourth straight time in a 110-100 loss to Phoenix as a 2-point underdog on Tuesday. The nightcap on TNT has Philadelphia visiting the Los Angeles Lakers at 10 PM ET. The 76ers have won nine of their last ten games with their 108-98 victory at Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Lakers have lost three straight games after their 128-111 loss at New Orleans as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia is a 5-point road favorite with a total of 211.5.Eleven games are on the NHL schedule. Six games begin the card at 7 PM ET. The slate concludes at 9 PM ET with Colorado hosting Vegas as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. None of the games are on television.

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NCAA Basketball: Coastal Carolina/Pepperdine Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/24/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 24, 2021

Coastal Carolina battles Pepperdine in the Championship Game of the College Basketball Invitational. This three-day event has taken place at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach in Florida. The Chanticleers advanced to the finals with their 77-72 victory in overtime against Stetson as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. Essam Mostafa scored 22 points and added 12 rebounds with 8 of his points in overtime. It was the ninth double-double of the season for the redshirt freshman. He is scoring 12.0 points-per-game and averaging 9.0 rebounds-per-game. Tyrik Dixon scored 8 of his 17 points in overtime, as well. The senior scores 11.4 points-per-game coming off the bench. DeVante Jones leads the team with a 19.8 points-per-game scoring average and a 7.2 rebounds-per-game average. The junior had nine points with five assists on Tuesday. Cliff Ellis’s team ranks 160th at kenpom with an 18-7 record after winning six of the seven games. They lost to Appalachian State in the semifinals of the Sun Belt Conference tournament. The Mountaineers went on to win the Championship Game against Georgia State. The Chanticleers' best victory on their resume was against the Panthers. Coastal Carolina ranks 218th in adjusted offensive efficiency using the metrics at kenpom, and they finished sixth in offensive efficiency in the Sun Belt. They rebound 35.3% of their missed shots which is the 14th best mark in the nation. An area of concern is their ability to control the basketball. They rank 304th nationally with a turnover rate of 21.6%. The Chanticleers rank 123rd nationally and second in the Sun Belt in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their opponents' effective field goal percentage of 46.0%  is 26th in the nation. Their defensive 31.1% percentage from 3-point land and 45.5% mark inside the arc ranks 46th and 29th nationally. Coastal Carolina’s opponents have attempted 46.9% of their shots from 3-point range,  seventh-best in the nation.Pepperdine won their semifinals game with Bellarmine yesterday by an 82-71 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Kessler Edwards led the team with 28 points. The junior is scoring 17.5 points-per-game. Senior Colbey Ross leads the team with a 17.6 points-per-game average after scoring 9 points yesterday. The Wave ranks 105th nationally in the kenpom rankings. They have won four of five games to reach their current 14-12 record. They have qualities victories against BYU and Saint Mary’s. They got few favors in the abbreviated West Coast Conference schedule with two losses to Gonzaga and BYU and a setback to the Gaels. They also lost to UCLA and San Diego State in the non-conference portion of their schedule.Pepperdine ranks 90th in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom while ranking third in the West Coast Conference. They make 52.0% of their 2-point shots, 82nd in the nation. The Wave are 128th in adjusted defensive efficiency using the kenpom numbers, and they finished sixth in the WCC in defense. Their opponents make 28.6% of their 3-pointers, the seventh-best mark nationally. But these opponents shoot 54.6% of their 2-point shots, ranking 315th nationally. BetAnySports lists Pepperdine as a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 150.5. The CBI tournament is not on national television.Computer prediction: Pepperdine 77 Coastal Carolina 75

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Previews and Odds - 03/24/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 24, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, the NHL, and college basketball.Eleven games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with Detroit playing at Indiana. Denver visits Toronto at 7:30 PM ET.An NBA doubleheader on ESPN begins at 7:30 PM ET with Boston visiting Milwaukee. The Celtics have lost four of their last five games after their 132-126 loss at Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The Bucks have won seven games in a row with their 140-113 win against Indiana as a 7-point favorite on Monday. At 8 PM ET, Orlando plays at home against Philadelphia. Dallas travels to Minnesota as an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 230. Chicago hosts Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 218. Charlotte travels to Houston. Memphis visits Oklahoma City. At 8:30 PM ET, the Los Angeles Clippers play at San Antonio. At 10 PM ET, Sacramento is at home against Atlanta. The NBA card concludes with the nightcap on ESPN featuring Utah playing at home against Brooklyn at 10 PM ET. The Nets have won seven of their last eight games after their 113-106 win against Washington as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. The Jazz have won three of their last four games after their 120-95 win at Chicago as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Six games are the NHL schedule. The slate begins at 5 PM ET with Calgary visiting Ottawa. The Flames are a -170 money line road favorite with the total set at 6 (all odds from BetOnline).A tripleheader on the NBC Sports Network begins at 5:30 PM ET with Minnesota hosting Anaheim. The Wild have won sixth of eight after a 2-1 victory against the Ducks on Monday. The setback was Anaheim's sixth loss in their last seven. Minnesota is a -237 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Pittsburgh plays at home against Buffalo on the NBC Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Penguins have lost three of their last four games after a 2-1 loss to New Jersey on Sunday. The Sabres are on a 14-game losing streak after getting beat on the road by the New York Rangers, 5-3, on Monday. Pittsburgh is a -265 money line favorite with a total of 6.The NHL concludes at 10:30 PM ET with San Jose at home against the Los Angeles Kings on the NBC Sports Network. The Sharks ended a four-game losing streak with a 2-1 win against the Kings on Monday. Los Angeles has lost two of their last three games. San Jose is a -188 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Coastal Carolina battles Pepperdine in the Championship Game in the College Basketball Invitational at 8 PM ET. The Chanticleers advanced to the finals with a 77-72 victory in overtime against Stetson as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Waves defeated Bellarmine, 82-71, as a 4.5-point favorite, in the other semifinal game on Tuesday. Pepperdine is a 5-point favorite with a total of 156. The Oceans Center at Daytona Beach is the site for this tournament. This game is not on national television.

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NHL Hockey: Philadelphia Flyers/New Jersey Devils Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/23/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 23, 2021

New Jersey visits Philadelphia on the NBC Sports Network in a battle of two teams currently outside the East Division playoff picture.The Devils are playing better as of late, with three wins in their last four games. They defeated the Penguins on the road in a 2-1 victory in overtime on Sunday. Jesper Bratt scored the game-winner with a wrap-around shot at the 2:50 mark in OT. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 35 of the 36 shots he faced. The three victories that New Jersey has piled up since last Monday surpasses the two wins they have compiled in a 14-game stretch from February 20th to last Monday. The Devils are in seventh place in the East with 26 points. They are ten points behind Boston for the final playoff spot in the division. Daniel Zacha leads the team with 18 points. The center has seven goals and 11 assists. Center Jack Hughes has added seven goals and nine assists. Ty Smith is third on the team with 15 points, with the defenseman scoring two goals while contributing 13 assists. Blackwood will likely make his 17th start of the season tonight. He has posted a 7-8-1 record with a 2.91 goals-against-average and a .908 save percentage in his 16 games. In six starts this month, Blackwood is 2-4-0 with a 3.49 goals-against-average and a .894 save percentage.Philadelphia lost their third game in their last four in a 2-1 loss in overtime against the New York Islanders last night. The Flyers took a 1-0 lead in the second period with a goal by Oskar Lindblom before surrendering the tying goal at the 4:06 mark in the third period. The Islanders scored the game-winner 3:41 minutes into overtime. Philadelphia peppered Islanders’ goalie Ilya Sorokin with 37 shots but could only beat him one time. The Flyers are amidst a slide where they have lost five of their last seven games. With 34 points, they are two points behind the Bruins for fourth place and the final spot in the East Division playoffs. Brian Elliott stopped 18 of the 20 shots he faced last night for Philly. Carter Hart will likely get the start tonight. The 22-year old has an 8-7-3 record in his 18 starts. He has struggled in his 20 games this season with a 3.83 goals-against-average, and a .875 save percentage. Hart was 9-5 in 14 playoff starts last fall with a 2.23 goals-against-average and a .926 save percentage for the Flyers. Hart has a 2-4-0 record this month with a 4.08 goals-against-average and a .821 save percentage in eight games. James van Riemsdyk leads the team with 29 points. The left-winger has 13 goals and 16 assists. Left-winger Joel Farabee has added 13 goals with 12 assists. Center Claude Giroux has seven goals and 17 assists. Philadelphia will next host the New York Rangers in the third game of a four-game homestand. New Jersey travels to Washington on Thursday for the second game of a six-game road trip. BookMaker lists Philadelphia as a -160 money line favorite with the total set at 6.Computer prediction: Philadelphia Flyers 4 New Jersey Devils 2

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 03/23/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 23, 2021

Six games are on the NBA docket. The card tips off at 7 PM ET with Denver visiting Orlando. The Nuggets had their three-game winning streak end at home against New Orleans, 113-108, as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Magic have lost ten of eleven games after their 112-96 loss at Boston as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. Denver is a 7.5-point road favorite with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from BetOnline).New York hosts Washington at 7:30 PM ET. The Knicks lost for the third time in four games with a 101-100 loss to Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. The Wizards lost their sixth game in their last seven with a 113-106 loss at Brooklyn as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. New York is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225. New Orleans plays at home against the Los Angeles Lakers in the first game in a TNT doubleheader at 7:35 PM ET. The Pelicans have won three of their last five games after upsetting the Nuggets in Denver, 113-108, as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Lakers have lost two games in a row with LeBron James now on the shelf with Anthony Davis with their 111-94 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. New Orleans is a 6-point favorite with a total of 221.5.Phoenix visits Miami at 8 PM ET. The Suns won their third game in their last four with their 111-94 win against the Lakers on Sunday. The Heat were upset for the third straight game with a 109-106 loss to Indiana as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.Brooklyn travels to Portland at 10 PM ET. The Nets won their seventh game in their last eight with their 113-106 victory against Washington on Sunday. The Trail Blazers had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 132-92 loss to Dallas as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.The nightcap on TNT has Golden State playing at home against Philadelphia. The Warriors had their two-game winning streak end in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. The 76ers won for the eighth time in their last nine games with their 101-100 victory at New York on Sunday. Five games are on the NHL schedule. Philadelphia is at home against New Jersey on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Flyers have lost four of their last six games after their 2-1 loss in overtime to the New York Islanders on Sunday. The Devils have won three of their last four games with a 2-1 win at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Philadelphia is a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Florida visits Chicago at 8 PM ET. The Panthers have lost two of three with their 5-3 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Blackhawks lost their fourth game in a row with their 4-1 defeat at Tampa Bay on Saturday.  Florida is a -140 money line road favorite with the total at 6. Nashville is at home against Detroit at 8 PM ET. The Predators won their third game in their last four games with their 4-3 win at Dallas on Sunday. The Red Wings lost to Dallas on Saturday, 3-0. Nashville is a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Tampa Bay plays at Dallas at 8:30 PM ET. The Lightning won their fourth game in a row with their 5-3 victory against Florida on Sunday. The Stars have lost three of their last four with their 4-3 loss to Nashville. Tampa Bay is a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Arizona hosts Colorado at 10 PM ET. The Avalanche defeated the Coyotes on Monday by a 5-1 score. 

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NCAA Basketball: LSU/Michigan Preview, Odds and Prediction - 03/22/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 22, 2021

LSU battles Michigan in a heavyweight battle on CBS at 7:10 PM ET. The winner of this East region matchup plays the winner of the Florida State/Colorado contest.LSU flexed their muscles in a 76-61 victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. The Tigers controlled the glass against the Bonnies by outrebounding them by 15 boards. Will Wade had three players register double-doubles. Sophomore Aundre Hyatt scored 13 points with 10 rebounds, sophomore Trendan Watford scored 11 points with 11 rebounds, and junior Darius Davis added 13 points with 11 rebounds. Freshman Cameron Thomas led the team with 27 points after converting 11 of his 13 shots from the charity stripe. Thomas leads the team with a 22.8 points-per-game scoring average. Watford is second with his 16.5 points-per-game clip, and he pulls down 7.5 rebounds-per-game.LSU is peaking just in time for March Madness with five victories in their last six games, including six straight-point spread covers. The Tigers lost by one-point in the SEC Championship Game to Alabama. LSU ranks fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They average 81.0 points-per-game. Yet the play on the other end of the court continues to be a weakness for Wade-coached teams. LSU ranks 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency using the kenpom metrics. Opponents make 50.9% of their shots inside the arc, 223rd in the country. The Tigers let opponents pull down 32.4% of their missed shots, 320th in the nation. LSU ranks 23rd nationally by the kenpom ratings with a 19-9 record. They earned the eighth seed in the East region. They registered five victories against teams who made the NCAA tournament with wins against Arkansas (twice), Missouri, Tennessee, and the Bonnies on Saturday. The Tigers were 11-6 in the SEC with three losses to the Crimson Tide. COVID impacted their season with games postponed and re-arranged due to outbreaks inside and outside their program. Wade did not coach two games given quarantine protocols.Michigan had lost three of their previous five games entering the NCAA tournament before handling Texas Southern, 82-66, as a 28.5-point favorite on Saturday. Point guard Mike Smith led the way with 18 points and five assists. Freshman Hunter Dickinson added 16 points. Sophomore Franz Wagner had 9 points with 9 rebounds and 6 assists. Dickinson leads the team with a 14.3 points-per-game scoring average and a 7.4 rebounds-per-game mark. Wagner contributes 12.7 points-per-game and 6.3 rebounds-per-game. The Wolverines are without Isaiah Livers, whose recent stress fracture in his foot likely has him out for the rest of the season. The senior was scoring 13.1 points-per-game while adding 6.0 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 assists-per-game. Junior Brandon Johns takes his place in the starting lineup. The former blue-chip recruit under John Beilein scored 11 points on Saturday. The Wolverines rank third in the nation at kenpom with a 21-4 record. They won the Big Ten regular-season title with a 14-3 mark. Their recent three losses to Illinois, Michigan State, and Ohio State were all against teams that made the NCAA tournament. Michigan is the only team still standing amongst that group after being tabbed as the top seed in the East region.Michigan ranks eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Wolverines are 22nd with an effective field goal percentage of 54.9%. They are making 38.5% of their 3-point shots, ranking 11th nationally. Michigan will encounter a Tigers’ defense that is 14th in the nation by holding opponents to a 29.6% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Wolverines are sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are sixth in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 44.6% mark. They rank third nationally by limiting their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc. This game will be at Lucas Oil Stadium. BetAnySports lists Michigan as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 148.Computer prediction:  Michigan 77 LSU 72

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAA Basketball and NBA Previews and Odds - 03/22/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 22, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL.The second round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament concludes with eight games. The card tips off at 12:10 PM ET with Iowa facing Oregon on CBS at Bankers Fieldhouse. The Hawkeyes have won five of six after their 86-74 win against Grand Canyon as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Ducks advanced to the second round on Saturday after VCU pulled out of the tournament after a COVID positive test within their program. Oregon last played on March 12th when they lost in the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament to Oregon State, 75-64, as an 8-point underdog. Iowa is a 5-point favorite with the total set at 147.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Gonzaga plays Oklahoma on CBS at the Hinkle Fieldhouse at 2:40 PM ET. The Bulldogs remained the last undefeated team in the nation with a 98-55 victory against Norfolk State as a 33-point favorite on Saturday. The Sooners have won two of three games with their 72-68 upset win against Missouri as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Gonzaga is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 154.UCLA goes against Abilene Christian on TBS at Banks Fieldhouse at 5:15 PM ET. The Bruins have won two in a row in this tournament with their 72-63 victory against BYU as a -0.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Wildcats won their fifth straight game with their 53-52 upset victory against Texas as an 8.5-point underdog on Saturday. UCLA is a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 133. Creighton battles Ohio on TNT at Hinkle Fieldhouse at 6:10 PM ET. The Bluejays have won four of five after their 63-62 win against UC-Santa Barbara as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats won their fourth straight game with their 62-58 upset victory against Virginia as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Creighton is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149.Michigan plays LSU on CBS at Lucas Oil Stadium at 7:10 PM ET. The Wolverines have won two of three after their 82-66 win against Texas Southern as a 28.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Tigers have won five of their last six games with their 75-61 victory against St. Bonaventure as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Michigan is a 5-point favorite with a total of 149.Florida State battles Colorado on TBS at Indiana Farmers Insurance Coliseum at 7:45 PM ET. The Seminoles have won two of three after their 64-54 win against UNC-Greensboro as a 10.5-point favorite on Friday. The Buffaloes have won seven of eight with their 96-73 victory against Georgetown as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Florida State is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 140.5. Alabama goes against Maryland on TNT at Bankers Fieldhouse at 8:45 PM ET. The Crimson Tide have won seven in a row after their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. The Terrapins upset UConn, 63-54, as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 136.Kansas faces USC on CBS at Hinkle Fieldhouse at 9:40 PM ET. The Jayhawks have won nine of their last ten games after their 93-84 win against Eastern Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Trojans have won four of five after their 72-56 win against Drake as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 134.5.The College Basketball Invitational tournament begins on Monday with the quarterfinals. All games in the CBI take place at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach, Florida. Bowling Green plays Stetson at 11:30 AM ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 151. Coastal Carolina battles Bryant at 2:30 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Pepperdine faces Longwood at 5:30 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 144. Bellarmine goes against Army at 8:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5. None of the CBI quarterfinals games are on national television. Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7:40 PM ET, with Sacramento visiting Cleveland as a 4-point favorite with a total of 225. The slate concludes with the Los Angeles Clippers hosting Atlanta as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. None of the games are on national television. Ten games are on the NHL schedule. Five games begin the slate at 7 PM ET. Minnesota plays at home against Anaheim on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 PM ET. The Wild have lost two in a row after they were shutout in Colorado against the Avalanche, 6-0, on Saturday. The Ducks come off a 5-1 loss at home to Arizona. Minnesota is a -220 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5.

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