Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/07/2022

Saturday, May 07, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby headlines the sporting events of the day. The Run for the Roses is the 12th race at Churchill Downs with a start time of 6:57 PM ET.The National Basketball Association continues the conference semifinals with two playoff games on ABC. Milwaukee hosts Boston at 3:30 PM ET. The Celtics evened this series at 1-1 with a 109-86 victory as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bucks are a 2-point favorite with the total set at 212.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Golden State plays at home against Memphis at 8:30 PM ET. The Grizzlies made this a 1-1 series with their 106-101 upset win against the Warriors as a 2-point home underdog on Tuesday. Golden State is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5.Four games are on the slate in the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. Florida visits Washington on ESPN at 1:07 PM ET. The Panthers evened this series at 1-1 with a 5-1 victory at home on Thursday. Florida is a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Colorado is at Nashville in the first game of a tripleheader on TNT at 4:37 PM ET. The Avalanche has a 2-0 lead in this series after a 2-1 victory in overtime against the Predators on Thursday. Colorado is a -245 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers travel to Pittsburgh on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Rangers made this a 1-1 series with a 5-2 victory against the Penguins on Thursday. New York is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 6.Calgary plays at Dallas in the nightcap on TNT at 9:37 PM ET. The Stars shut out the Flames, 2-0, on Thursday to even this series 1-1. Calgary is a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 18 games on its schedule. Pittsburgh plays at Cincinnati at 12:35 PM ET in the first game of their doubleheader. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:05 PM ET. The New York Yankees host Texas as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Chicago to play the Cubs in the opening game of their doubleheader as a -215 money line road favorite at William Hill. Two more MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. Toronto is at Cleveland in the first game of their doubleheader as a -135 money line road favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 6.5. Minnesota is at home against Oakland as a -175 money line favorite at William Hill with a total of 8. Two MLB games begin at 4:05 PM ET. The New York Mets visit Philadelphia as a -153 money line road favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 7. Houston hosts Detroit in the first of two games on FS1 as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago White Sox plays at Boston at 4:10 PM ET. The Blue Jays face the Indians in the second game of their doubleheader at 5:10 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Reds play at home against the Pirates in the second half of their doubleheader at 6:40 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 7. Baltimore is at home against Kansas City at 7:05 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. San Francisco hosts St. Louis in the nightcap on FS1 at 7:15 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Milwaukee plays at Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dodgers play their second game at Wrigley Field against the Cubs at 7:40 PM ET as a -195 money line road favorite at William Hill.Colorado visits Arizona at 8:10 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 8. San Diego plays at home against Miami at 8:40 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Washington travels to Los Angels to play the Angels at 9:07 PM ET. Tampa Bay is at Seattle at 9:10 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 7.Matchweek 38 of the English Premier League begins with six matches. Four games start at 10 AM ET. Brentford hosts Southampton on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Aston Villa plays at Burnley on Peacock in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. Chelsea is at home against Wolverhampton on the USA Network as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Crystal Palace plays at home against Watford on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester United visits Brighton and Hove Albion on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool hosts Tottenham on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

2022 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Friday, May 06, 2022

This year's Kentucky Derby would seem to have something for everyone. Everyone, that is, unless you like betting on Bob Baffert horses. But even though the superstar trainer -- whose horse crossed the finish line first last year but was later disqualified for a banned substance -- isn't allowed to be running horses at Churchill Downs, two of his horses are still represented in the big race. So even for Baffert fans, there are opportunities in this latest edition of the Run for the Roses. But there are also so many other angles to pursue. So here is a preview of the some of the field for the most exciting two minutes in sports -- including the contenders, pretenders, likely over-bet favorites, and live longshots Contenders:#3 - Epicenter. Steve Asmussen's brilliant runner has done little wrong in his career winning four of his six races. Yet the son of Not This Time is not likely to be the favorite, and may even go off at odds of 4-1 or higher (especially if Mattress Mack puts down several million dollars on Zandon, and doesn't bet on Epicenter). Asmussen was something like 0 for his last 72 starts in the State of Kentucky but with a couple of wins on Oaks Saturday, he has removed that monkey from his back. Some people are saying the #3 post position is a bad one, but with Epicenter's forward running style, it really shouldn't matter. Top Jockey Joel Rosario will ride as he did in Epicenter's dominant victory in the Louisiana Derby.#10 - Zandon. The Chad Brown trainee is likely to go off as a strong favorite - perhaps even as low as 2-1. Like Epicenter, the son of Upstart has done little wrong in his career and there are few reasons to knock him. The 10 post position is thought to be ideal for a horse with his running style. Look for Flavien Pratt to sit chilly and look for that opportunity at the top of the stretch to unleash Zandon's deadly kick down the lane. The only potential hiccup will be if he has nowhere to go behind a wall of horses. He won't be facing 10 other runners like he was in the Blue Grass Stakes, but 19 others and most of them will be in front of him for most of the race. Pretenders:#15 - White Abarrio. Saffie Joseph has come out of nowhere in less than 10 years to become the king of trainers in South Florida. White Abarrio is just his second Derby runner. And while he comes in with an impressive resume that includes wins in the Florida Derby and Holy Bull, there are giant question marks as to how his form will translate outside of the Sunshine State. Indeed, in his only previous start shipping from Florida, White Abarrio was a well-beaten third right here at Churchill Downs in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. You will want at least 20-1 on this runner and you're not likely to get it. #1 - Mo Donegal. Like White Abarrio, Todd Pletcher's Mo Donegal is a homeboy trying to win the biggest race outside of his home state. But instead of Florida, the son of Uncle Mo has been calling New York home. Yes, Mo Donegal was impressive in winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct race track, but he only beat seven other runners, and won just barely (by a neck). He drew the dreaded #1 post position for the Derby and although folks are saying it doesn't matter because he's just going to drop back anyway (he's not a front-running horse) one could easily see a scenario where he is hopelessly boxed in around the first turn getting dirt and mud kicked in his face before the race is even half over. His late charge was barely enough against a weak field in New York -- it's unlikely it will get him to the winners circle here. Like White Abarrio you will need 20 or 30-1 to make it worth your while and you won't get it. Over-bet Favorites: #6 Messier and #12 Taiba - Yes, we're going to put both of the former Bob Baffert horses -- now both trained by Tim Yakteen -- in this category. Though neither will be the favorite in the Derby, both Messier and Taiba will likely be bet below their morning line odds of 8-1 and 12-1, respectively. The recent success of California horses in the Derby will guarantee that you won't get fair odds on either of these horses. They are the 1-2 finishers in the Santa Anita Derby, but what did they beat? There were six horses in the field and the heavy favorite, Forbidden Kingdom, threw in a complete clunker and finished off the board. Taiba especially should be avoided with just two lifetime starts to his credit. He may end up being a superstar and future Breeders Cup winner, but this is just too tall of a mountain for a horse with so little experience. Live Longshots: #16 Cyberknife, #18 Tawny Port, #19 Zozos - Brad Cox has been arguably the best trainer in the country the last couple of years. He trained Breeders Cup Classic winner Knicks Go and won the Eclipse Award for best trainer in 2021. Oh, yeah, Cox also won last year's Derby after Medina Spirit was disqualified and his Mandaloun was declared the Champion (Mandaloun was my Kentucky Derby pick last year, and we cashed our across-the-board wager). And unlike Bob Baffert (CA) and Chad Brown (NY) Cox is from right here in Louisville. And yet he will have three runners in the Derby who are all likely to be 20-1 and higher. The most obvious of the three -- from a betting perspective -- is Cyberknife. The son of red-hot sire Gun Runner won the Arkansas Derby and will be piloted by Florent Giroux and is still being completely overlooked in the big race. If Cyberknife is flying under the radar, then Cox's other two runners, Tawny Port and Zozos are in an underground bunker. You will likely get 40-1 or higher on those runners. #8 Charge It - No discussion of Derby longshots would be complete without a mention of Todd Pletcher. The Hall of Fame trainer sends out three runners today. And while one of them will be overbet from a poor post-position (Mo Donegal) and the other one (Pioneer of Medina) just looks too slow, Charge It offers some intriguing value. The son of super sire Tapit hit the gate at the start of the Florida Derby and then came running late to finish second to White Abarrio. He's been all the rage on the race track in the mornings with many saying that no horse looks better coming up to the big race. Top Jockey Luis Saez won the Kentucky Oaks aboard Secret Oath so he knows how to win big races here.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/06/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 06, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference semifinals with two playoff games on ESPN. Miami travels to Philadelphia at 7 PM ET. The Heat took a 2-0 lead in this series with a 119-103 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Miami is a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 210 (all odds from DraftKings).Phoenix plays at Dallas at 9:30 PM ET. The Suns have a 2-0 series lead after being the Mavericks, 129-109, as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix is a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Four games are on the slate in the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. Boston hosts Carolina on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Hurricanes took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 5-2 victory at home on Wednesday. The Bruins are a -135 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Toronto on TBS at 7:37 PM ET. The Lightning evened this series at 1-1 with a 5-3 win on the road in Game 2 on Wednesday. Tampa Bay is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. St. Louis is at home against Minnesota on TNT at 9:37 PM ET. The Wild made this a 1-1 series with their 6-2 victory on the road in Game 2 on Wednesday. St. Louis is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Edmonton visits Los Angeles on TBS at 10:07 PM ET. The Oilers evened this series at 1-1 with their 6-0 victory on Wednesday. Edmonton is a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET. Pittsburgh travels to Cincinnati at 6:40 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. Baltimore hosts Kansas City as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets play at Philadelphia as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 7. The New York Yankees are at home against Texas as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Boston plays at home against the Chicago White Sox as a -165 money line favorite. Toronto is at Cleveland as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Milwaukee travels to Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET. Two more MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota hosts Oakland as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Houston is at home against Detroit as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 8. Washington plays at Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. Three more MLB games start at 9:40 PM ET. Arizona hosts Colorado as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Seattle plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7. San Diego is at home against Miami as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. St. Louis visits San Francisco at 10:15 PM ET.

2022 WNBA Season Preview: Part Two

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, May 05, 2022

Last week we took a look at how six of the WNBA's 12 teams shape up entering the 2022 season. We conclude our season preview here, with the regular season set to tip off on Friday night.Odds to win WNBA title are courtesy BetOnline.Las Vegas Aces (+375)The Aces might just be the flashiest team in the WNBA, led by superstar A'ja Wilson. The problem in recent years has been that the Aces roster has been somewhat top-heavy in terms of talent - often lacking the depth needed to go all the way in the postseason. Las Vegas' biggest offseason move was landing Becky Hammon to take over the head coaching reins. Hammon is a proven winner in this league and Aces fans should be confident she'll be able to get the most out of the Aces already explosive offense. If they can figure out a way to put it together on defense as well, they could turn out to be a front-runner for most of the season. Seattle Storm (+550)This season could serve as a victory lap for Storm veteran leader Sue Bird and fans in Seattle are hoping she has one more championship run left. With Breanna Stewart and Jewell Loyd back to lead the charge, the Storm certainly appear to be championship-caliber once again. Like the aforementioned Aces, a lack of depth down the roster could ultimately be Seattle's downfall but they've proven the ability to stay relevant year in, year out and we should expect nothing different in 2022.Indiana Fever (+8000)It only seems like the Fever have been in rebuild mode forever. You would have to go all the way back to 2015 to find the last time they posted a winning record and they're a longshot to do so this year as well. They'll once again be looking to flip the script with a boatload of young talent on board, noting that the Fever had a whopping seven picks in this year's draft. Number two overall pick NaLyssa Smith will lead the charge and the hope is she'll become the face of the franchise moving forward. Dallas Wings (+5000)After reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2018 last year (albeit with a losing record of 14-18), there's reason for optimism in Dallas. The rebuild is essentially over, with the Wings making just a couple of offseason moves. Most notably, they locked up super scorer Arike Ogunbowale with a long-term contract extension. When in sync, the Wings can have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league but the consistency hasn't always been there. Teaira McCowan joins the fold this year to provide some much-needed stability at the center position. While not likely a championship contender, the Wings could prove to be a 'tough out' on most nights.Minnesota Lynx (+900)Led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Sylvia Fowles, who like Sue Bird is likely in her final WNBA season, the Lynx are hopeful they can make another run at a WNBA championship in 2022. Angel McCoughtry was a key offseason acquisition but there's reason to doubt how much she can contribute having not played a full season since 2018 due to various injuries. Napheesa Collier's scoring will be missed as she's pregnant and won't return to the floor for some time. Minnesota is hopeful that key cogs such as Natalie Ochonwa and Kayla McBride can pick up the slack offensively with Collier on the sidelines. Los Angeles Sparks (+2500)The Sparks had a disastrous 2021 campaign, finishing with a below .500 record and missing the playoffs entirely. Not surprisingly, the offseason brought changes, most notably acquiring Liz Cambage from the Las Vegas Aces. The thought is that the Sparks were missing a true anchor last season after Candace Parker's departure. Cambage was brought in to hopefully fill that role. This is a veteran-laden squad led by the Ogwumike sisters and Kristi Tolliver. The addition of guard Chennedy Carter could prove to be key as well as she enters her third season following two solid campaigns with the Atlanta Dream. Finding offense shouldn't be a problem for head coach Derek Fisher but the defense will be a work-in-progress for much of the season, hence the lofty championship odds.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/05/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 05, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NHL and MLB action.Four games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The New York Rangers are at home against Pittsburgh on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Penguins took the first game of this series with a 4-3 victory on Tuesday. The Rangers are a -160 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Florida plays at home against Washington on TBS at 7:37 PM ET. The Capitals own a 1-0 lead in this series with their 4-2 victory in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. The Panthers are a -255 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Colorado is at home against Nashville on TNT at 9:37 PM ET. The Avalanche come off a 7-2 victory in the first game of this series on Tuesday. Colorado is a -400 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Calgary hosts Dallas on TBS at 10:07 PM ET. The Flames won Game 1 of this series, 1-0, on Tuesday. The Flames are a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has ten games on the schedule. The Los Angeles Angels visit Boston at 1:35 PM ET. Shohei Ohtani pitches for the Angels against the Red Sox Rich Hill. Los Angeles is a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Milwaukee hosts Cincinnati at 1:40 PM ET. The Brewers pitch Adrian Houser against the Reds Hunter Greene. Milwaukee is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Colorado plays at home against Washington at 3:10 PM ET. Antonio Senzatela pitches for the Rockies against the Nationals’ Aaron Sanches. The Rockies are a -135 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. Toronto travels to Cleveland at 6:10 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Jose Berrios against the Indians’ Aaron Civale. Toronto is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Philadelphia hosts the New York Mets at 6:45 PM ET. Aaron Nola pitches for the Phillies against the Mets’ Taijuan Walker. Philadelphia is a -145 money line favorite with a total of 8. Baltimore plays at home against Minnesota at 7:05 PM ET. The Orioles pitch Spenser Watkins against the Twins’ Chris Archer. Houston is at home against Detroit at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros send out Jose Urquidy to face off against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Houston is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 9:40 PM ET. San Diego hosts Miami. Nick Martinez pitches for the Padres against the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo. San Diego is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7. Tampa Bay travels to Seattle. Shane McClanahan of the Rays battles Robbie Ray of the Mariners. Tampa Bay is a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. St. Louis visits San Francisco at 9:45 PM ET. Miles Mikolas pitches for the Cardinals against a Giants’ starting pitcher yet to be named.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 05/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 04, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference semifinals with two playoff games on TNT. Miami plays at home against Philadelphia at 7:30 PM ET. The Heat took a 1-0 lead in this series with a 106-92 victory against the 76ers as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. Miami is an 8.5-point favorite with the total set at 207.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Phoenix hosts Dallas at 10 PM ET. The Suns took Game 1 in this series with a 121-114 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Phoenix is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 216.Four games are on the slate in the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. Carolina is at home against Boston on ESPN at 7:07 PM ET. The Hurricanes come off a 5-1 victory in the opening game of this seven-game series on Monday. Carolina is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Toronto plays at home against Tampa Bay on ESPN2 at 7:37 PM ET. The Maple Leafs are on a four-game winning streak after winning the opening game of this series, 5-0, on Monday. Toronto is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Minnesota hosts St. Louis on ESPN at 9:37 PM ET. The Blues upset the Wild in the opening game of this series, 4-0, on Monday. Minnesota is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton is at home against Los Angeles on ESPN2 at 10:07 PM ET. The Kings upset the Oilers in Game 1 of this series, 4-3, on Monday. Edmonton is a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 17 games on its schedule. Miami plays at home against Arizona at 12:40 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Four MLB games start at 1:10 PM ET. Detroit hosts Pittsburgh as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5 in the opening game of their afternoon doubleheader. St. Louis visits Kansas City as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. San Diego plays at Cleveland in the opening game of their afternoon doubleheader. The New York Mets are at home against Atlanta as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Houston hosts Seattle at 2:10 PM ET as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Tampa Bay travels to Oakland at 3:37 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two more MLB games begin at 4:10 PM ET. The Pirates play on the road against the Tigers in the second game of their doubleheader. The Padres are at Cleveland in the second game of their doubleheader. Philadelphia plays at home against Texas at 6:45 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Minnesota is at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees visit Toronto at 7:07 PM ET as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at Boston at 7:10 PM ET. Two MLB games begin at 7:40 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox plays on the road against the Chicago Cubs as a -140 money line road favorite. Milwaukee hosts Cincinnati as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Colorado is at home against Washington at 8:40 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. San Francisco plays at Los Angeles against the Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET. The semifinals of the UEFA Champions League conclude with the second leg between Manchester City and Real Madrid on CBS at 3 PM ET. Man City is a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3.

Big Al's NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 05/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 03, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference semifinals with two playoff games on TNT. Boston hosts Milwaukee at 7 PM ET. The Bucks took the opening game of this best-of-seven series with a 101-89 upset victory as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. The Celtics are a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 215.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Golden State plays at Memphis at 9:30 PM ET. The Warriors have a 1-0 lead in this series after their 117-115 victory against the Grizzlies in Game 1 as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 224. Golden State is a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Four games are on the slate in the first round of the National Hockey League playoffs. The New York Rangers play at home against Pittsburgh on ESPN at 7:07 PM ET. The Rangers ended a three-game losing streak with their 3-2 victory against Washington on Friday. The Penguins ended a two-game losing streak with a 5-3 win against Columbus on Friday. New York is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida is at home against Washington on ESPN2 at 7:37 PM ET. The Panthers lost their third game in their last four with their 10-2 loss at Montreal on Friday. The Capitals are on a four-game losing streak after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Rangers on Friday. Florida is a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Colorado hosts Nashville on ESPN at 9:37 PM ET. The Avalanche won their sixth game in their last seven with a 4-1 win at Minnesota on Friday. The Predators lost their fourth game in their last five in a 5-4 loss at Arizona on Friday. Colorado is a -340 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Calgary plays at home against Dallas on ESPN2 at 10:07 PM ET. The Flames are on a two-game losing streak after a 3-1 loss at Winnipeg on Friday. The Stars won their third game in their last four with a 4-2 victory against Anaheim on Friday. Calgary is a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games. Atlanta plays at New York against the Mets at 3:10 PM ET in the opening game of a doubleheader. Two games start at 6:10 PM ET including the second game between the Braves and Mets. San Diego travels to Cleveland as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Arizona plays at Miami at 6:40 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against Texas at 6:45 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota visits Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Toronto is at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Detroit hosts Pittsburgh as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at Boston as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:40 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox play in Chicago against the Cubs as a -145 money line road favorite. Milwaukee is at home against Cincinnati as a -275 money line favorite. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Houston plays at home against Seattle as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. St. Louis visits Kansas City as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Colorado hosts Washington at 8:40 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. Tampa Bay travels to Oakland at 9:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against San Francisco at 10:10 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.The UEFA Champions League semifinals continue at 3 PM ET. Liverpool plays at Villarreal in the second leg after the Reds won the first match last Wednesday, 2-0. Liverpool is a -0.5 goal line road favorite at PlayMGM with a total of 3. Paramount+ and fuboTV televise the match.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL, NBA and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 02, 2022

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference semifinals with two games in a doubleheader on TNT in the second round of the playoffs. Miami hosts Philadelphia at 7:30 PM ET. The Heat have won four of their last five games after beating Atlanta in five games with a 97-94 victory as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The 76ers have won six of their last eight games after beating Toronto in six games in their 132-97 victory on the road as a 1.5-point favorite on Thursday. Miami is a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 208.5. Phoenix plays at home against Dallas at 10 PM ET. The Suns have won three of their last four games after beating New Orleans on the road, 115-109, as a 3-point favorite on Thursday. The Mavericks have won four of their last five games after a 98-96 upset victory as a 1-point underdog as a 1-point underdog on Thursday. Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Four games are on the slate in the opening night of the playoffs in the National Hockey League. Carolina is at home against Boston on ESPN at 7:07 PM ET. The Hurricanes have won six in a row with their 6-3 win against New Jersey on Thursday. The Bruins had their four-game winning streak end with a 5-2 loss at Toronto on Friday. Carolina is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Toronto hosts Tampa Bay on ESPN2 at 7:37 PM ET. The Maple Leafs have won eight of their last ten games with their 5-2 victory against the Bruins. The Lightning won their fifth game in their last six games with their 6-4 win in New York against the Islanders. Toronto is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Minnesota plays at home against St. Louis on ESPN at 9:37 PM ET. The Wild won their seventh game in their last eight with their 4-1 victory against Colorado on Friday. The Blues were on a three-game winning streak before a 7-4 loss to Vegas on Friday. Minnesota is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Edmonton is at home against Los Angeles on ESPN2 as a 10:07 PM ET. The Oilers have won seven of their last eight games with their 3-2 victory against Vancouver on Thursday. The Kings had their five-game winning streak end with a 3-2 loss on the road to the Canucks on Thursday. Edmonton is a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Monday card in Major League Baseball includes eight games. St. Louis plays at home against Kansas City at 1:15 PM ET as a -170 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 2:10 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Miami is at home against Arizona at 6:40 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Minnesota plays at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at Toronto at 7:07 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Atlanta plays in New York against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET. Houston hosts Seattle at 8:10 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Tampa Bay plays at Oakland at 9:40 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. Manchester United is at home against Brentford as a -0.5 goal line favorite at PlayMGM with an over/under of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/01/22

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 01, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL action.The National Basketball Association begins the conference semifinals with two games in a doubleheader on ABC in the second round of the playoffs. Boston hosts Milwaukee in the first game of their best-of-seven series at 1 PM ET. The Celtics are on a five-game winning streak after sweeping Brooklyn in four games in the first round of the playoffs. They last played on Monday when they won on the road against the Nets, 116-112, as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bucks won their seventh game in their last nine with a 116-100 victory against Chicago as a 12.5-point favorite on Wednesday. They defeated the Bulls in five games. Boston is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 217.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Golden State visits Memphis at 3:30 PM ET. The Warriors won their ninth game in their last ten with a 102-98 victory against Denver as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. They won that series in five games. The Grizzlies have won four of their last five games with their 114-106 victory at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite in Game 6 of their series with the Timberwolves on Thursday. Golden State is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. One makeup game is on the slate in the National Hockey League to complete the regular season. Winnipeg plays at home against Seattle at 2:07 PM ET as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on the schedule. Boston visits Baltimore at 1:05 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Tampa Bay is at home against Minnesota at 1:10 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8. San Diego plays at Pittsburgh at 1:35 PM ET as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Toronto hosts Houston at 1:37 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Miami is at home against Seattle at 1:30 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. Milwaukee plays at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The New York Yankees travel to Kansas City as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at Chicago to play the White Sox with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. St. Louis hosts Arizona at 2:15 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Texas is at home against Atlanta at 2:35 PM ET. Colorado plays at home against Cincinnati at 3:10 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. San Francisco is at home against Washington at 4:05 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Cleveland visits Oakland at 4:07 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Detroit at 4:10 PM ET as a -260 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets host Philadelphia for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET. The Mets are a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League continues with three matches. Two matches begin at 9 AM ET. Chelsea travels to Everton on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Tottenham plays at home against Leicester City on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Arsenal is at West Ham United at 11:30 AM ET on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

The Fall of Manchester United

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

Manchester United has been a slow but inevitable train wreck waiting to happen ever since the club parted ways with manager Jose Mourinho in December of 2018. But it took the short-sighted signing and return of Cristiano Ronaldo this season to accelerate the collapse of this squad built on a shaky foundation. On paper, things do not appear so bad for the Red Devils. They began Matchweek 35 in sixth place in the English Premier League table. They reached the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League before losing to Atletico Madrid in the Round of 16. No shame losing to that Spanish side that won La Liga last season and who have been perennial Knock State participants in the Champions League under manager Diego Simeone. But Manchester United has probably little chance of returning to the Champions League next season being five points behind the fourth-place Arsenal who holds the final qualify spot — and the Gunners have two matches in hand still relative to the Red Devils. The underlining dynamic is of a team that is moving quickly in the wrong direction. The sacking of Mourinho in the middle of the 2018-19 campaign was warranted. He was in his third year managing the team — and that is about his shelf life before his prickly personality alienates both his players and upper management. The team was underperforming on the pitch. Management brought in a former player in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to serve as the caretaker manager — and the team responded by winning 14 of 17 matches at one point the rest of the way. But they also lost seven of nine during a stretch which triggered doubts that Solskjaer lacked the tactical expertise to maneuver a club with the high expectations of Manchester United. Ownership decided to make Solskjaer the permanent manager, yet with questions remaining about his tactical acumen and his ability to command the respect of the strong personalities in the locker room, it seemed like his termination was inevitable at some point. The team did improve in the 2020-21 season from the sixth place Solskjaer steered the team in half a season to a tie for third place and qualification in the Champions League. The Red Devils then claimed second place last year with eight more points than they accumulated the previous season. Under those conditions, it was hard to get rid of Solskjaer despite it still seeming he could not bring the franchise their first English Premier League title since 2012-13. When the team started slow this season, ownership finally relieved him of his duties on November 21st. They brought in Ralf Rangnick as the caretaker manager. The ironic aspect of the Solskjaer stewardship was that management was doing a good job of bringing in talent to compliment the exciting young players that were on the roster. The winter transfer period signing of Bruno Fernandes from Sporting Lisbon in 2020 turned out to be a brilliant move. He offered the team stability in the midfield that was not getting consistently from Paul Pogba, who was supposed to be the cornerstone of the franchise when he signed a budget-busting contract. With young scoring talents like Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, and Mason Greenwood, the Red Devils had legitimate attackers that could compete with Man City, Liverpool, and Chelsea. Even bringing Edinson Cavani from Paris Saint-Germain for 2020-21 offered the side a veteran attacker who could offer yet another scoring punch in the starting XI or off the bench. Man United entered the 2021 summer transfer window in desperate need of holding midfielders with vertical passing skills. Instead, this is when management went in a different direction to make a big splash by resigning Ronaldo. Perhaps the reunion with the international superstar and former player was a boon for public relations in the short term, but his addition to the roster disrupted the chemistry of the team. Ronaldo was no Cavani — if he was leaving Juventus to return to Manchester for the first time since the 2008-09 season, he was coming as the team’s talisman. But at 36-years-old, Ronaldo’s talents were on the decline — this is why he left Real Madrid for a Serie A side in Juventus three years prior. Bringing back a Prodigal Son is what a team does look to re-establish relevance. This Man United team was still on the ascent, albeit with perhaps the wrong manager. Ronaldo sucked all the air out of the room. And he replaced Fernandes as the leader on the pitch while taking over penalty kick responsibilities. His role as the number nine forward displaced the role Rashford, Martial, and Greenwood would often take. It was like the brother 15-years older than all his siblings coming back home to live at the parents' house and then expecting everything to return to the way it was when he left. Ronaldo has been about as good as expected. In 31 EPL matches, he has 17 goals. His three assists are light — and make a statement. But the productivity of his teammates — the ones that are still around — has diminished. Fernandes has scored nine goals and assisted on seven goals in the EPL after scoring 18 goals and assisting on 14 more in the English top-flight last season. Rashford is in a complete funk with only four goals and two assists after registering 11 goals and 11 assists last year and 17 goals with eight assists two years ago. Martial became disgruntled and transferred to Sevilla in January. Greenwood is unavailable after getting in trouble with the law. Cavani has played 10 minutes in the last 12 EPL matches after scoring 10 goals and added four assists in part-time work last season. And the team still lacks quality defensive midfielders. Change is afoot at Old Trafford in the offseason with the franchise finally making the big splash in leadership by hiring Erik ten Hag away from Ajax. It remains to be seen if retaining a 37-year-old Ronaldo will be in his long-term plans, but that seems unlikely. Pogba needs to go. The club needs to fix the Rashford decline and build around Jaden Sancho who they also brought in last year (a much better fit with the younger core talent if Ronaldo was not around). Fernandes should remain a solid investment. The Red Devils are desperate for world-class defensive midfielders. Things will not be easy. Manchester City and Liverpool are not just the best two teams in the EPL, they are the best two clubs in Europe. Chelsea is a step behind and has the challenge of acquiring new ownership — but they also won the Champions League last season so they are dynamite for a third-place club. Arsenal appears to be firmly in a promising rebuild. Tottenham remains solid. Man United was in a much better position a year ago at this time. Making a hard decision on Solksjaer earlier probably would have served the club better. In hindsight, the Ronaldo signing appears to be the actions of a uber-rich club still smelling the fumes from the Super League money-grab aspirations that went up in smoke. Best of luck — Frank.

Analyzing ATS and O/U Data for the NBA Play-In Tournament

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

We at Team Del Genio like to assess the against the spread and totals data for unique circumstances where perhaps the situation presents an inherent edge to the favorite/underdog or over/under that the oddsmakers and/or market may fail to appreciate. Last month, we looked at how NCAA tournament teams performed in their next if they won their previous tournament game in overtime. This time, we examine NBA play-in tournament games. The play-in tournament to qualify for the quarterfinals of the Eastern and Western Conference playoffs is not like any other playoff game in the NBA. While there is a single-elimination dynamic for most of the teams competing in this event (with the exception being for the initial seventh and eighth seeds who earned the opportunity to play a second play-in single-elimination game for the eighth seed if they lose their initial play-in game for the seventh seed), those games are different than elimination games in seven-game playoff series. A playoff series where teams play each other four to seven times in a row breeds familiarity and rewards adaptions and adjustments. These play-in games lack that component. These games might produce interesting data that comes from (relatively) unfamiliar opponents playing in must-win showdowns. The NBA has now had three play-in tournaments, yet for our purposes, we are going to ignore the data from its initial incarnation since those games were played on a neutral court in the bubble during the pandemic-impacted 2020 season. Last year was the first time play-in games were played on true home courts with fans. All six home teams were favored, yet only three of them covered the point spread in victory. Four of the home teams won their games, with Memphis’ 100-96 victory against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite being the lone game where the home team won straight-up but did not cover the point spread. The over/unders split out at 3-3, yet the final game went over only because Memphis’ upset win against Golden State went to overtime. That game was still 18 points under the number before the five-minute overtime session where 31 combined points were scored.This year, all six play-in games finished under the number. Atlanta’s initial 132-103 victory at home against Charlotte to advance to play for the eighth seed was the closest call with that final score just finishing under the common closing number of 235.5. All five remaining play-in games averaged more than 11 points below the closing total. The under holds a 9-3 edge in the twelve play-tournament games played on a true home court. All six favorites in the play-in tournament this year won their games. Five of these six favorites covered the point spread in their straight-up victory. Two of these favorites were on the road. Both of these road favorites were playing in the final play-in game, and both covered the point spread in their straight-up victory. In the last two years of play-in games not taking place on neutral courts, favorites are now 8-4 ats. Home teams are just 6-6 ats.Favorites and unders may have had past underlying value in the NBA play-in tournament. Good luck - TDG.

The Early Season Value of Eric Lauer

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

Eric Lauer has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2022 season in Major League Baseball. The Milwaukee Brewers’ left-hander came into the last day of April with a 1-0 record that goes along with a sparkling 2.20 era and a 1.04 whip in three starts.Lauer was coming off a dominant effort where he allowed no runs in six innings while striking out 14 batters on the road in Philadelphia on April 24th. He induced seventeen swinging strikes and 36% of his 98 pitches in the effort were either a called strike or a swinging strike. Bettors looking at Lauer’s season numbers last year may have overlooked what appears to be a breakout season. He posted a 7-5 record in 118 2/3 innings with a 3.19 era and a 1.13 whip. Yet Lauer hinted at a possible breakthrough season this year after posting a 2.60 era in his 62 1/3 innings after the all-star break last season. He struck out 3.70 batters for every walk he issued during that span. The crafty 26-year-old has five different pitches at his disposal, and the 94.5 miles per hour on his fastball this season is 1.5 mph higher than last year.Lauer rewarded his backers in his start at home against the Chicago Cubs with seven innings of work where he allowed only one earned run. He struck out eleven batters and continued his impressive ability to miss bats. Twenty-one of his pitches went for swing-and-miss strikes, and 35% of his pitches overall were either called strikes or swing-and-miss strikes. Eric Lauer completes the month of April with a 2-0 record along with a 1.93 era and a 0.99 whip. He has 34 strikeouts in his 22 1/3 innings through four starts. He has walked only five batters. The Brewers were swinging cold bats, yet they have scored 20 runs in their last two games. The opportunities to buy low when Lauer is on the mound make be disappearing quickly, especially if the Milwaukee hitters continue to hit like they have against Cubs’ pitching this weekend. Yet Lauer still may offer some money line or under value as spring moves into summer. Good luck - TDG.

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The Fall of Manchester United

Analyzing ATS and O/U Data for the NBA Play-In Tournament

The Early Season Value of Eric Lauer

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