Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Articles

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL, EPL and NBA Previews and Odds - 05/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 02, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League.Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 3:30 PM ET with Milwaukee hosting Brooklyn on ABC. The Bucks have two of their last three games after their 108-98 win at Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. The Nets had their four-game winning streak end in a 128-109 loss at home to Portland as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Brooklyn is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings. Boston plays at home against Portland at 7:30 PM ET as a 2-point favorite at DraftKings. Five games start at 8 PM ET. New York travels to Houston as a 9-point road favorite with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless otherwise indicated). Philadelphia visits San Antonio as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221.5. Miami plays at Charlotte as a 5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Dallas is at home against Sacramento as a 7-point favorite at DraftKings. Phoenix is at Oklahoma City as a 14-point road favorite at DraftKings.The NBA card concludes at 10 PM ET with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against Toronto.One game is on the NHL schedule, with Tampa Bay traveling to Detroit on NBC at 3 PM ET. The Lightning had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 1-0 loss on the road against the Red Wings. Detroit snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory. Tampa Bay is a -343 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Fifteen games are on the MLB schedule. Washington hosts Miami at 1:05 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. St. Louis visits Pittsburgh as a -147 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees play at home against Detroit as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta plays at Toronto at 1:07 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 1:10 PM ET as a -138 money line favorite with a total of 9. Houston visits Tampa Bay. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Cleveland at 2:10 PM ET as a -158 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Minnesota hosts Kansas City as a -181 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Milwaukee. Boston travels to Texas at 2:35 PM ET as -139 money line road favorite with the total at 9. Oakland hosts Baltimore at 4:07 PM ET as a -188 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Arizona plays at home against Colorado at 4:10 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels visit Seattle as a -143 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. San Francisco plays at San Diego. The MLB card concludes at 7 PM ET on ESPN, with Philadelphia playing at home against the New York Mets. The Phillies have lost two of their last three games after a 5-4 loss to the Mets in the second game of their three-game weekend series. New York ended a three-game losing streak with the victory. They send out David Petersen to face Philly’s Zach Eflin. Philadelphia is a -107 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with three matches on the NBC Sports Network. Arsenal visits Newcastle United on at 9 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool plays at Manchester United at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. Tottenham hosts Sheffield United at 2:15 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75.

Read more

147th Kentucky Derby: A Look at the Horses and the Morning Line Odds

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The 147th Kentucky Derby returns to its traditional first Saturday in May. The first leg of the Triple Crown tests the three-year-old horses with a 1 1/4 mile dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is 6:57 PM ET on NBC. Below is a breakdown of the 20 horses.#1 Known Agenda (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.). The winner of the Florida Derby on March 27th for the famed trainer, Todd Pletcher. Two wins since adding blinkers. A best Beyer speed mark of 94. 6-1 morning line odds.#2 Like the King (Trainer: Wesley Ward; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke). Three wins but two of the victories on a synthetic surface and one on turf, so the transition to dirt is a question. A best Beyer figure of 86. 50-1 morning line odds.#3 Brooklyn Strong (Trainer: Daniel Velazquez; Jockey: Umberto Rispoli). Beat Known Agenda at the Grade 2 Remsen on December 5th before finishing outside the money, most recently at the Wood Memorial on April 10th. A best Beyer mark of 94. 50-1 morning line odds.#4 Keepmeinmind (Trainer: Robertino Diodoro; Jockey: David Cohen). Finished in third place at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile as a maiden. Fifth place, most recently at the Blue Grass. A best Beyer mark of 92. 50-1 morning line odds.#5 Sainthood (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Corey Lanerie). A late finish to earn second place at the Jeffy Ruby on March 27th. A best Beyer figure of 84. 50-1 morning line odds.#6 O Besos (Trainer: Greg Foley; Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza). A third-place result at the Louisiana Derby on March 20th. Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Sire. A best Beyer mark of 96. 20-1 morning line odds. #7 Mandaloun (Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Florent Geroux). Won the Risen Star on February 13th before a sixth-place finish at the Louisiana Derby. A best Beyer mark of 98. 15-1 morning line odds.#8 Medina Spirit (Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: John Velazquez). Won the Robert B. Lewis on January 30th before a second place at the Santa Anita Derby on April 3rd. Never worse than second place in five starts. A top Beyer figure of 99. 15-1 morning line odds.#9 Hot Rod Charlie (Trainer: Doug O’Neill; Jockey: Flavien Prat). The Lousiana Derby winner on March 20th. A best Beyer mark of 99. 8-1 morning line odds.#10 Midnight Bourbon (Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Mike Smith). A second-place finish at the Louisiana Derby. A top Beyer figure of 96. 20-1 morning line odds.#11 Dynamic One (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Jose Ortiz). A second-place finish at the Wood Memorial on April 10th. A best Beyer mark of 89. 20-1 morning line odds.#12 Helium (Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Julien Leparoux). Unbeaten in three starts, but only one of the races were on dirt. A top Beyer figure of 84. 50-1 morning line odds.#13 Hidden Stash (Trainer: Vicki Oliver; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano). A fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes. A best Beyer mark of 83. 50-1 morning line odds.#14 Essential Quality (Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Luis Saez). Unbeaten with wins at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year and the Blue Grass Stakes on April 3rd. A top Beyer figure of 97. The favorite to win with 2-1 morning line odds.#15 Rock Your World (Trainer: John Sadler; Jockey: Joel Rosario). Unbeaten with a victory at the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent start on April 3rd. A best Beyer mark of 100. The second favorite to win with 5-1 morning line odds.#16 King Fury (Trainer: Ken McPeek; Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.). Won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 10th. A top Beyer figure of 96. 20-1 morning line odds. A late scratch this week from a fever.#17 Highly Motivated (Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Javier Castellano). A second-place result to Essential Quality at the Blue Grass Stakes. A top Beyer figure of 97. 10-1 morning line odds.#18 Super Stock (Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.). Won the Arkansas Derby on April 10th. A best Beyer figure of 92. 30-1 morning line odds.#19 Soup and Sandwich (Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione). A second-place result at the Florida Derby. A top Beyer mark of 90. 30-1 morning line odds.#20 Bourbonic (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche). Won the Wood Memorial at 73-1 odds on April 10th. A best Beyer figure of 89. 30-1 morning line odds.

Read more

2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 4: The Bombs to Use in Exotics

by Al McMordie

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place later this evening.  We've been previewing it throughout the week, as we covered the top contenders on Wednesday, the value plays on Thursday, and the over-bet pretenders yesterday.  Today, we'll conclude our four-part series with a look at the bombs to use in exotic wagers.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 4 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Bombs to Use in Exotics:O Besos (Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza)    Here is a son of Orb, who won this race eight years ago, who looks like he’s going to relish the 10-furlong distance.  In the Louisiana Derby, O Besos was charging hard at the end of the race at odds of almost 30-1.  When you look at his speed figures, you have to like the fact that he’s improved with every race.  And with anther improvement on Saturday, he could be right there.  His #6 post position is perfect for his stalking style of running.  Just be careful and watch his odds as there has been quite a bit of buzz about O Besos being a live longshot.  You will need 20-1 or higher to have value here.     Helium/Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux/Tyler Gaffalione)    There are two lightly-raced Casse runners in the Derby, and both offer intriguing longshot possibilities for the exotics.  Soup and Sandwich is by the hottest sire in the country, Into Mischief, out of a Tapit mare named Souper Scoop, so the breeding for the classic distance is not in question.  He put in a strong run to finish second to Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, at odds of 12-1.  Meanwhile, Helium is a son of up-and-coming sire Ironicus and he switched from the artificial to the dirt in winning the March 21 Tampa Bay Derby.  Like his stable mate, Helium has only raced three times but has improved his figures in each race, which indicates he might be peaking now.  A victory for either one of these is unlikely but if you’re looking for horses to fill out a juicy exacta or trifecta this is a pair to consider.Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana)   When was the last time you saw the Arkansas Derby winner priced at 30-1 on the first Saturday in May?  The prestigious race held at Oaklawn Park every April has been one of the most successful stepping stones for the Triple Crown races the last couple of decades.  American Pharoah used the Arkansas Derby as a springboard to his Derby, Preakness, and Belmont wins in 2015 (all as the favorite).  And yet the Asmussen-trained son of Dialed In named Super Stock is sitting at 30-1 on the morning line after a convincing score less than a month ago in that popular prep race.  Asmussen will have his go-to rider aboard Super Stock in Ricardo Santana.  The outside position (Super Stock breaks from #18 which is the same Program Number that Authentic had last year when he won) should help Super Stock stay out of trouble as he makes his run to the first turn.  He is a "horse for the course" having finished second and third in his only two previous races here at Churchill.  Finally, Super Stock is the only horse in the field with as many as eight previous starts coming in, and experience never hurts when you're about to run in the biggest race there is.Good luck, as always...Al McMordieAnd don't miss my Kentucky Derby Longshot Winner, as I've cashed 9 of the last 20 Triple Crown races, including Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown last season.

Read more

Big Al's Daily Angle: Kentucky Derby, NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League. The 147th Kentucky Derby returns to its traditional first Saturday in May. Post time is 6:57 PM ET on NBC.Ten games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET, with Charlotte hosting Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings.Golden State visits Houston in the first game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Warriors are a 7.5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Five NBA games begin at 8 PM ET. New Orleans travels to Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 234.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Miami plays at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite at DraftKings. Atlanta hosts Chicago. Oklahoma City plays at home against Indiana. Memphis visits Orlando as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.5. Dallas hosts Washington at 9 PM ET as a 6-point favorite at DraftKings. Utah plays at home against Toronto at 10 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against Denver at 10 PM ET in the nightcap on ESPN. The Clippers are a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Fifteen games are on the NHL schedule. Boston plays at home against Buffalo at 1 PM ET as a -360 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay visits Detroit at 3 PM ET as a -310 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Six games in the NHL start at 7 PM ET. Washington hosts Pittsburgh as a -106 money line favorite with a total of 6. Philadelphia plays at home against New Jersey as a -138 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against the New York Rangers as a -125 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Carolina is at home against Columbus as a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Montreal hosts Ottawa as a -195 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Toronto plays at home against Vancouver as a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Four NHL games start at 8 PM ET. Colorado is at home against San Jose as a -295 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Nashville plays at home against Dallas as a -103 money line favorite with an over/under of 5. Florida visits Chicago as a -147 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Minnesota hosts St. Louis as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three games conclude the NHL card at 10 PM ET. Edmonton plays at home against Calgary as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vegas visits Arizona as a -200 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at Anaheim as a -129 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Washington plays at home against Miami at 1:05 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Minnesota is at home against Kansas City as a -123 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox hosts Cleveland on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET. The White Sox are a -173 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Oakland plays at home against Baltimore at 4:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston travels to Tampa Bay at 4:10 PM ET as a -119 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Cincinnati is at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Philadelphia plays at home against the New York Mets at 6:05 PM ET as a -111 money line favorite with a total of 8. St. Louis visits Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Boston travels to Texas at 7:05 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Milwaukee at 7:10 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Atlanta plays at Toronto at 7:37 PM ET. Arizona hosts Colorado at 8:10 PM ET as a -183 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. San Diego plays at home against San Francisco at 8:40 PM ET as a -163 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Seattle at 9:10 PM ET as a -139 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. Manchester City travels to Crystal Palace at 7:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Brighton and Hove Albion hosts Leeds United at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Fulham on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. Everton is at home against Aston Villa at 3 PM ET on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.

Read more

Don’t Crown the Brooklyn Nets the NBA Champions Yet

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

The alliance of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to a Brooklyn Nets roster that was already a playoff team already made them a strong contender to win the NBA Eastern Conference. Yet when they traded for James Harden earlier in the season to form a “Big Three” of superstars, it was understandable when many observers thought this team was destined to win the NBA championship this season. The later additions of stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin elevated their collection of players into a super team. However, any coronation of this team is premature. As the month of May begins just a few weeks away from the start of the NBA playoffs, the questions that have dogged this team remain unanswered.First, will the chemistry of this group of players work? The Los Angeles Clippers were considered the super team of destiny last season. Their former head coach Doc Rivers later revealed that the lack of cohesion that never developed between Kawhi Leonard and Paul George with each other and the rest of the team played a big role in their early exit in the Western Conference playoffs to the Denver Nuggets. Developing chemistry on the fly in the playoffs is easier said than done. Yet the Nets’ Big Three of Durant, Harden, and Irving has only played together in seven games this season. Can all three share the ball? Will Harden and Irving defer to Durant as the presumptive alpha of the group? Should Durant be considered the alpha? Will Harden be content being a ball distributing point guard? Will Irving take more personal days? These stars have all said the right things up to this point. They seem to be on the same page of all wanting to just win a championship. But the platitudes of January are not under the same weight of pressure as the urgency these players will encounter if they happen to fall behind, 2-1, in a seven-game playoff series. That is when the chemistry of this group will be tested. The regular season should be building the foundation for this group of players to prepare for the inevitable adversity coming in the playoffs. Instead, this group has dealt with injuries and load management as they await the playoffs. Second, can this team simply outscore their opponents without playing at least decent play on defense? The offense numbers are quite impressive. Brooklyn averages 118.9 points per game. They make 49.4% of their shots and 38.9% of their 3-pointers. They lead the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 118.9 points per 100 possessions. These are numbers with the Big Three playing only seven games together so the ceiling could be even higher. But the defense is an eyesore. Opponents make 46.2% of their shots which is resulting in 114.1 points per game. The Nets have the sixth-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA, with opponents scoring 113.2 points per 100 possessions. Can a defense this suspect survive in the playoffs against the very best teams? Mike D’Antoni’s coaching career has attempted to have his great offensive teams score their way past defensive liabilities, including his time in Houston with Harden. This approach never won a championship. Coincidentally or not, D’Antoni is an assistant coach with this team. Steve Nash is the head coach of this group. He was the point guard for D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns teams that never reached an NBA Finals. Nash’s strengths were never defensive basketball. He is a rookie head coach, handling a large collection of big egos. It simply does not take much to imagine these circumstances taking a bad turn. Third, will the superstars stay healthy? Proclamations of teams of destiny never take into account the prospect of injuries. Given the recent histories of Durant and Irving, and with Harden’s hamstring issues this season, it may be unrealistic to expect these three players to remain healthy throughout the postseason. On paper, Brooklyn looks formidable. They have looked spectacular at times this season. Yet the challenge of the NBA playoffs is different than the regular season. Those are untraveled waters for the 2021 Nets. Good luck - TDG.

Read more

Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni: Secret Soul Mates?

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

At first glance, it would not seem that Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni would have much in common outside interest in scheming NFL plays on offense. Rodgers is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback destined for the Hall of Fame. Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts before flop sweating through his first press conference in a golf shirt as the new head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. But both individuals have something in common: they have been involved in dramas that reflect the increasing trend of NFL franchises to treat the white-collar management as the superstars of the organization. This is a trend that started in Major League Baseball. General managers began taking their role to be more than just assembling the parts for their managers to manipulate. The movie Moneyball depicts this phenomenon with Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane frustrated with Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Art Howe reluctance to use the players the way in which he wanted. Beane was the hero in that story. He was adventurous rebel thinking outside the box as the underdog running a baseball team that could not extravagantly spend the money that rich teams were able to indulge. Howe was the curmudgeon locked in the old world. Jonah Hill played the role of Paul DePodesta who Beane hires to teach him the secret math taught in the Ivy Leagues that would revolutionize baseball. The secret sauce is dubbed “sabermetrics” in baseball while analyzing statistics in other sports has been given the esoteric label of “analytics.” As I have written elsewhere, the secret math offers capital-T Truth — and those who question it are small-minded dinosaurs. Well, at least that is the impression that some who dabble (and profit) in the sports analytics community tend to frame the issues. An embrace of a deeper appreciation of statistics in football was inevitable, but its growth in football is neatly symbolized by DePodesta leaving the Oakland A’s for the NFL and the Cleveland Browns. When Browns' general manager Sashi Brown traded away many of his veterans to acquire draft choices, it was as if DePodesta had discovered the concept of tanking games in ancient texts at the Harvard library. For many, the Browns’ Super Bowl was inevitable — and it was going to be clear who the heroes would be in that story. Analytics are being embraced by every sport. In the NBA, we see its influence in the Philadelphia 76ers “trust the process” mantra that led to their current superstar duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. General manager Daryl Morey was highly influenced by analytics is assembling his Houston Rockets teams that were allergic to any shot that was not at the rim or behind the arc. Morey hired a head coach in Mike D’Antoni who shared this offensive philosophy. Morey now happens to be the GM for the Sixers. The number of championship appearances for the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia 76ers, and Houston Rockets remains zero. To be fair, there are teams across all the major sports that have invested in analytics to then win championships. The Houston Astros offer the best example in MLB, and the Boston Red Sox won the World Series with an analytics department even after they failed to woo Beane away from Oakland. But then again, it is not as if the use of statistics was invented by the Oakland A’s. Bill Belichick is shrewd with his ability to use statistics to help inform his decisions as head coach and general manager of the New England Patriots. But Belichick does not have a shiny Ivy League degree hanging on his office wall. It is harder to peddle the “Belichick” way on your new statistics website. This brings us back to Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni. Rodgers is in a power struggle with Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst and his hand-picked head coach, Matt LaFleur. Remember that LaFleur was the offensive coordinator of the middling Tennessee Titans offense that was continually flailing away on 4th-and-1s in 2018-19. But LaFleur was buddies with Sean McVay, the new wunderkind who could solve personnel mismatches with the power of his intellect and a nearby whiteboard. Now granted, Gutekunst is no Harvard man. But even a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse appreciates the power of pulling the strings from behind his office desk. He could hire LaFleur to “fix” Rodgers — and if the veteran quarterback doesn’t like it, then he would just get another quarterback that LaFleur would scheme-to-success using the new secret sauce. It has been reported that it was Gutekunst who made the unilateral decision to trade up in the first round last year to draft quarterback Jordan Love. Amidst whispers of Love struggling in practices (albeit, in a season impacted by COVID taking away the normal practice routines), LaFleur never elevated him above the third string. The Packers’ management has communicated that Rodgers is expendable. That motivated Rodgers’ rebuttal asking to be traded on the first day of the NFL draft. It was interesting to then observe Gutekunst choosing a defensive player in the first round, an area of need but not a choice that would placate Rodgers. In Philadelphia, general manager Howie Roseman along with highly engaged owner Jeffrey Lurie proved that their Super Bowl-winning head coach, Doug Pederson, was expendable when they fired him after the season. Did one of them set Pederson up by demanding he makes sure Nate Sudfeld got some reps at quarterback, despite the Eagles playing in a close game with Washington late in the season? Sure, Philadelphia was “trusting the process” by tanking, but management (and/or ownership) telling the head coach how to use his players comes straight out of Brad Pitt trading away the first baseman that Philip Seymour Hoffman was playing every day instead of Chris Pratt. It was later revealed that Roseman and Lurie would spend hours berating Pederson after games while demanding he defends the coaching decisions he made during the game. Roseman got his Law Degree at the University of Florida. Lurie was an academic with a doctorate before he finally followed in the footsteps of Michael Corleone to go into the family business to run the Hollywood movie company his grandfather founded. He produced Inside Man. Pederson was a career backup quarterback after a college career at UL-Monroe. Roseman and Lurie lure Nick Sirianni away from Indianapolis who was the offensive coordinator for Frank Reich, who was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles’ Super Bowl triumph. The 39-year-old looked over his head in his first press conference. He was nervous, which is not a crime. But it is also a characteristic of someone likely to be easily intimidated. Sirianni comes from a coaching family who began his coaching career after graduating from Mt. Union where he was a Division-III star. Perhaps it is that experience where he developed the rigor for competition that motivated his Rock-Paper-Scissors zoom duels with his new players? Sirianni may find success in Philadelphia, despite what seems to be a rocky start. What happens in August will matter far more than these initial events. He inherits a hot mess. But it seems evident that Roseman and Lurie hired someone who will take orders. Like in Major League Baseball where Ivy Leaguers have redefined the game to be a battle between strikeouts versus home runs because of The Math — the same Math that discovered that three points count more than two in basketball — the National Football League is slowly being taken over by the suits who know better. Because they have always known better. Just like the Enron guys. They were the smartest guys in the room too. How’s Enron doing lately?Best of luck -- Frank

Read more

Expand the College Football Playoffs!

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

FBS commissioners are considering the expansion of the number of teams that would qualify for the college football playoffs. This is a good idea! The creation of a four-team playoff was considered by many to be a lean-and-mean compromise at the time. Too often there was at least another team that had a credible argument to be considered to be chosen by the Bowl Championship Series to be one of the two teams to play for the National Championship. Added a semifinal playoff round of four teams addressed that issue without creating a large bracket akin to March Madness. But the new system has instead entrenched a hierarchy of the have and the have-nots. In the eight years with a four-team playoff, only eleven college football programs have competed in the event. Only four programs have won a national championship. The structure is not working to create and maintain fan interest. The powers-that-be should expand the college football playoff to 12 teams. The top four seeds should get byes into the quarterfinals. Here’s why:(1) More football games with high stakes are good! For those of us in the sports gambling industry, this would be a boon. The more high-profile games, the better, at least until the product becomes oversaturated. With interest beginning to wane as the same three to four teams compete in the playoff, the problem is not the oversaturation of college football, but the predominance of the same teams getting the opportunity. (2) Upsets will happen! College football may be the only sporting event where the avenues to be rewarded for midseason improvement are foreclosed. The best NFL team over the last 20 years has been the New England Patriots. Bill Belichick has a long history of his teams playing poorly in September before finding the groove later in the season. Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl run this season was propelled by their playing their best football starting in December. Is midseason improvement simply limited to the professionals? Of course not. One of the fascinating elements of March Madness is observing the improvement in the play of college basketball teams benefiting from months of practice, coaching, and competition. How many college football teams peaked late in the season over the years that would have proven to be the best team in the nation if only given the opportunity? The notion that the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world would continue to blow teams out like we have seen recently in the semifinals is remarkably naive. Sure, some blowouts will happen, but so too will the upsets. Even if you do not think that the improving teams will challenge the traditional powerhouses when playing on a neutral field under the pressure of a single-elimination tournament, the law of probability indicates that it will be more difficult for favorites with an expected win probability of, say, 75% or better to win more games. (3) Changes to the current system can only disrupt the Alabama/Clemson dominance. Arguments that expanding the playoff will only help the programs currently thriving in the four-team playoff miss the point. Save for granting Alabama and Clemson an automatic bid into the semifinals, the current system could not benefit these two programs more, as is. As recent history attests, Alabama and Clemson can both lose a regular-season game and still be tapped to playing in the semifinals because they remain entrenched as the first two teams on the list of the next group of teams with the fewest losses. This gives Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney tremendous advantages. Expanding the playoff structure opens up these benefits to other programs. Don’t underestimate the impact this has on recruiting. If 12 teams make the playoff, Saban and Swinney can no longer pitch recruits that if they want the national spotlight of playing in the college football playoffs, then they better commit to their school. (4) Arguments against expansion misidentify the problem. Admittedly, there are concerns with asking college football players to play a longer season. More games mean a higher risk of injury. More games mean less time in the classroom. But these are arguments against a playoff, in general. It is disingenuous to only begin expressing concerns about injury and the sanctity of the student-athlete after a four-team playoff is in place. The genie is out of the bottle. Instead, the legitimate concerns about player safety and classroom time should be redirected to the higher ambition of finally getting the players paid for the efforts. Pay the players! This is a topic worthy of another discussion, but paying the players resolves most of the rationalizations to not expand the playoffs. Best of luck — Frank.

Read more

NBA Weekend Shootaround: May 1-2

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

There are only two weeks remaining in the NBA regular season and the sprint (or limp in some cases) to the finish is well underway.Here's a look at some easily-overlooked spots to consider before you do your weekend NBA line shopping.SaturdayDetroit at CharlotteDespite missing a number of players due to 'injury management', the Pistons got up for the Mavericks at home on Thursday and actually hung with them for three quarters before ultimately falling by 10 points. Keep in mind, Dallas was without Luka Doncic and for as well as Detroit played, shooting better than 50% from the field, it still couldn't stay within arm's reach against an undermanned opponent. The Pistons have for all intents of purposes already moved on to next season. Next up is a trip to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that is sure to be in a foul mood after back-to-back losses against the Bucks and Celtics. The Hornets are of course still fighting for playoff positioning, entering Friday's action in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They certainly haven't given up on the season, even if a deep playoff run is unlikely, with LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk close to returning. The Pistons should be back at full strength for this one but they'll be hard-pressed to keep pace with the Hornets. Keep an eye on the line as the Hornets could be worth a look at a reasonable price point. Indiana at Oklahoma CityThe Thunder came out flat as expected at home against the Pelicans on Thursday night, unable to build off the positive momentum gained from Tuesday's upset win in Boston - their first victory in what seemed like an eternity (it was their first since March 31st). Now the Thunder draw a more favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Pacers squad that continues to play at a break-neck pace, often to its own detriment. Despite Thursday's poor showing, Oklahoma City is actually healthier than its been in a while and well-positioned to play spoiler against the playoff-hungry Pacers on Saturday. For whatever reason the Thunder appeared disinterested in pushing the tempo against a tired Pelicans squad playing the second of back-to-backs, and shot a miserable 38% from the field, but they should bounce back in what has the potential to be a track meet on Saturday night. If Oklahoma City is catching a generous helping of points again in this spot, it may be go-time for Thunder backers. While we're likely going to see an exorbitant total, the 'over' could be worth a look as well.SundayNew York at HoustonPerhaps Knicks bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after a wildly-successful six-game homestand that saw New York go 5-1 straight-up and against the spread. This is precisely the type of spot where a young, confident team like the Knicks could get tripped up as they travel for a sleepy Sunday night matchup in Houston (against a Rockets squad they've already defeated by 22 points this season). This trip will get much tougher for New York after Sunday's contest as it will face the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Suns, Clippers and Lakers in succession - a murderer's row of Western Conference contenders. It would be easy to overlook the Rockets, who will be in a back-to-back spot after hosting the Warriors on Saturday. While Houston's season is essentially over, it hasn't thrown in the towel just yet, as evidenced by Thursday's upset win over the Bucks here at home. Toronto at Los AngelesThis is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors, who are simply playing out the string with no legitimate playoff hopes still worth reaching for. Toronto will be playing its third game in four nights, with two of those coming at altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. The Lakers are rested and ready having returned home from a four-game road trip to host the Kings on Friday night. Of course, Los Angeles is gradually getting back to full strength with Anthony Davis working his way back to a full minutes load. With a tougher game against Denver on deck on Monday perhaps we see some 'load management' from the Lakers here but I'm quite honestly not sure that plays into their decision-making. Los Angeles doesn't really have the luxury of taking games off down the stretch as it enters the weekend in the middle of the pack in the Western Conference playoff picture. More help will obviously be coming with Lebron James' return imminent (at the time of writing on Friday). For now look for Los Angeles to take advantage of every winnable game on its schedule.

Read more

EPL Soccer: Leicester City vs. Southampton Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

Friday English Premier League Preview: Leicester City versus Southampton. Leicester City visits Southampton on Peacock at 3 PM ET on a battle between two teams moving in different directions. The Foxes have won three straight matches after their 2-1 comeback victory against Crystal Palace on Monday. Leicester City conceded the opening goal 12 minutes into the contest when Wilfried Zaha scored for the Eagles. Timothy Castagne scored the equalizer five minutes into the second half before Kelechi Iheanacho netted the winner in the 80th minute. That triumph was the Nigerian’s tenth goal for the Foxes in his last eight matches across all competitions. He has scored in four straight games. Jamie Vardy still leads the team with 13 goals.Manager Brendan Rodgers has his team comfortably in third place in the English Premier League table with 62 points. Leicester City is four points ahead of Chelsea and seven points up on West Ham United. They trail Manchester United for second place by five points, and they are a distant 15 points behind Manchester City at the top of the table. Leicester City is currently in third place in the EPL with 56 points. They trail Manchester United for second place by 10 points. They are one point ahead of Chelsea and West Ham, who are on their heels with 55 points. Liverpool and Tottenham are two points behind with 54 points in the crowded top-end of the table. This side also has an impending showdown with Chelsea for the FA Cup title on May 15th in their first attempt to win that trophy in 52 years.The Foxes are getting healthier. James Justin and Harvey Barnes are both out indefinitely with injuries. Wes Morgan is a doubt with a back injury but the veteran Jamaican defender has only played 16 minutes this season. Southampton has lost three straight matches across all competitions after a 2-1 loss at Tottenham on April 21st. The Saints took the lead in the 30th minute from a Danny Ings’ goal. The Hotspurs leveled the game at 1-1 at the 60th-minute mark. It was then Son Heung-Min’s penalty kick opportunity at the 90th minute that continued their losing streak. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s team has lost 12 of their last 15 matches in the English Premier League, and they have lost 12 of their last 17 games across all competitions. Southampton is in 15th place in the EPL with 36 points. They are nine points clear of relegation with Fulham in 18th placers with 27 points. The Saints return home to St. Mary’s Stadium, where they snapped a five-game winless streak in their previous match at home on April 4th with a 3-2 victory against Burnley. Danny Ings will miss this match as he is probably out the season with a hamstring injury he suffered in the game against Tottenham. He leads the Saints with 10 goals. Che Adams inherits the primary scoring duties. He has seven goals in the EPL this season.This contest is the third meeting between these two teams in 2021. Leicester City defeated Southampton in the semifinals of the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium on April 18th. The Foxes also won the reverse fixture at home at King Power Stadium, 2-0, on January 16th.BetOnline lists Leicester City as a -0.5 money line road favorite with the total set at 2.5.Computer prediction:  Southampton 2 Leicester City 1

Read more

2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 3: The Over-bet Pretenders

by Al McMordie

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow, and we've been previewing the race over the past few days.  On Wednesday and Thursday, we covered the top contenders and the value plays.  And tomorrow, we'll take a look at the bombs to use in exotic wagers.  For today's article, we'll be zeroing in on the over-bet pretenders.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 3 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Over-bet Pretenders: Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Flavien Prat)    What does it tell you that leading jockey Rosario jumped off of the son of Preakness winner Oxbow to ride Rock Your World this Saturday?  On the surface, a horse that has the second-most qualifying points, ran second to Essential Quality in last Fall’s BC Juvenile and that won the Louisiana Derby in his latest tune-up might seem like a serious contender.  But Hot Rod Charlie was 94-1 in the Juvenile race and he beat a weak field of only seven others at the Fair Grounds while recording a luke-warm speed figure.  He’s opened up as the fourth choice at 8-1, but fair odds would be closer to 20-1 or even higher.     Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche)    It’s rare for a horse to go off at lower odds in the Derby than he did winning a big prep race like the Wood Memorial.  But that’s almost certain to happen with Bourbonic.  The son of Bernardini took the Wood in dramatic fashion on April 3 at odds of 72-1.  There are at least a couple of reasons to think that his odds in the Derby could be less than half that.  He has to be considered the top horse from the New York circuit competing, and that means NY bettors and fans of Pletcher could be backing him with plenty of money.  And who doesn’t love a stone-cold closer who comes from out of the clouds?  Those who think there will be a pace meltdown will likely turn in this direction.  But he won’t have to negotiate his way through just eight horses to do it this time, but rather 19 and that's a much taller order.    Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, John Velasquez)    Here is the lone Baffert entry this year and there are several red flags that go along with this one.  First, Medina Spirit was a $35K purchase at auction and is by a relatively unknown sire named Protonico.  Next is the fact that, despite going off as the odds-on favorite in the Santa Anita Derby he was soundly beaten by Rock Your World and there’s little to suggest that he could turn the tables on that one, let alone the 18 others in here.  Third, although fast, Medina Spirit’s races suggest that he is much more suited to be a miler or even a sprinter.  It’s rare to see a Baffert horse in the Derby at odds of 10-1 or higher, but you should demand 30-1 on this one before diving in and that likely won’t happen.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 4:  The Bombs to Use in Exotics will be published tomorrow, on Saturday.

Read more

Will the 2022 NFL Rookie Quarterback Class be as Weak as Expected?

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

In the run-up to the 2021 NFL draft, many observers commented that teams may feel more pressure to find their quarterback of the future since the incoming rookie class for next year’s draft looks to be thin. Yet, isn’t this the same thought every year? Perhaps a draft class that finally featured Trevor Lawrence who was winning National Championships as a freshman three years ago makes the 2021 quarterback group special. At this time last year, one would be hard-pressed to find someone confidently predicting that BYU’s Zach Wilson would develop into the second player taken in the draft. As Hall of Fame executive Bill Polian commented about the potential lack of quality quarterback prospects next year: “Somebody always crops up.” A quick glance at the prospects in college shows plenty of names that observers and NFL brain trusts might fall in love with. It is challenging to accurately assess the returning college quarterbacks next fall after a shortened season with limited practices given COVID protocols. Hopefully, college football will be able to return to a normal practice regimen which will help the development of the quarterbacks looking to impress NFL scouts. Observers are more likely to be surprised than disappointed with another year of development. Below is a list of ten players who may grow into being a first-round draft pick in April of 2022.Spencer Rattler: NFL scouts have learned to trust quarterbacks groomed by Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley. If Jalen Hurts becomes the starting quarterback in Philadelphia, he will join Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as NFL starting quarterbacks that went through Riley’s program. Rattler started slowly last year before settled down to throw 15 touchdowns to two interceptions in his final seven games. J.T. Daniels: The former five-star quarterback was in the shortlist conversations with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields coming out of high school before injuries marred his growth at USC. With a full season as the starter at Georgia, Daniels will draw plenty of attention.Sam Howell: The North Carolina quarterback is considered the most polished passer in the class. He demonstrated his potential last year with 443 passing yards against Virginia and 550 passing yards against Wake Forest. Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan are comparables of quarterbacks with big arms who came from the ACC to find success in the NFL.Kedon Slovis: He is the quarterback who beat out J.T. Daniels for the starting job at USC, and he is the reason Daniels now plays in the SEC. Slovis has a quick release that NFL scouts covet. USC quarterbacks remain attractive to NFL brass.Tyler Shough: He was the heir apparent to Justin Herbert before a disappointing 2020 compelled him to transfer. He can put up big numbers against Big 12 defenses at Texas Tech, and then his 6’5 frame will take over to entice scouts. Matt Corral: He completed 71% of his passes in his first year at Ole Miss under head coach Lane Kiffin. He will likely put up video game numbers next season in the Rebels' offense. While just 6’1, his accuracy could make scouts think of Baker Mayfield or even Drew Brees.Bo Nix: The Auburn quarterback suffered from a sophomore slump last season after a freshman campaign that compelled quarterback coach guru Jordan Palmer to proclaim him the future top pick in the 2022 draft. A resurgent junior season in the SEC would elevate Nix once again. Desmond Ridder: The Cincinnati quarterback may be the closest comparison to a dual-threat Kyler Murray-type in the class. He completed 66.2% of his passes last season, and he has demonstrated himself as a winner with a 30-5 record with the Bearcats. Grayson McCall: The Coastal Carolina quarterback is still considered raw as he enters his redshirt junior season, but he came off a breakout campaign where he completed 69% of his passes with 26 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. The Chanticleers do not run a pro-style offense, but all it takes is one NFL offensive coordinator convinced he can lift enough of the Coastal Carolina offense to find success at the next level for McCall.Mystery Player to Come Out of Nowhere: This list above is not exhaustive of the potential quarterbacks who could make a big jump in development under a full year of coaching and competition. No one was predicting that Mac Jones would be picked by the New England Patriots in the first round at this time last year. Call it the “recency effect” or call it being a “prisoner of the moment”. It is human nature to overestimate the value of what is most recently experienced. For NFL scouts worried about finding a quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft, there are plenty of intriguing candidates. Good luck - TDG.

Read more

2021 Major League Baseball: One Month In

by Power Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

We’re officially one month into the 2021 Major League Baseball season and the Mariners (+7.0 units), A’s (+7.0), Royals (+6.9), Giants (+6.5) and Pirates (+6.5) have been the five most profitable teams to bet on thus far. There are definitely some surprises on that list and I’d expect four of the five (exception being the Giants) to fall pretty quickly.The A’s won 13 in a row at one point, but still have a negative run differential. Ditto for the Mariners. Kansas City has benefited from a 6-1 record in one-run games. The Pirates are expected to be one of the worst teams in either league this season.Minnesota (-12.5 units) and the Yankees (-10.4) are pacing the “bad bets” thus far. Only the Mets (-7.2), who have played far fewer games than anyone else, are within “sniffing” distance of the bottom of the net unit rankings. Colorado (-5.4), Detroit (-5.2), Atlanta (-5.1), Houston (-5.1) and the Cubs (-5.0) round out the rest of the worst.Atlanta and especially Houston should get better as the season wears on. The Astros have the American League’s second best run differential at +24, but are currently just a game above .500. I think a big story thus far is that none of the preseason favorites are leading the respective divisions. Even the Dodgers are one-half game out of first place (trailing the surprising Giants). The NL West looks stacked thus far with the three best run differentials in the Senior Circuit. The Dodgers are +36, the Giants +24 and the Padres (who were supposed to be LA’s main competition) +14.  Could all three end up making the playoffs?The NL East and Central both appear to be wide open. Milwaukee has gotten tremendous pitching the first month of the season. Only the three teams out West are allowing a fewer number of runs per game. That seems more reliable than Cincinnati, who is 1st in runs per game but 29th in runs allowed. The only team in the East with a positive run differential at this point is Miami and they were pegged for last place before the season began. No team in that division is currently .500. We now move to the American League where no team has established itself as a clear favorite. In the Central, I like the White Sox, who have a +31 run differential. As stated above, Kansas City could start to fade as they’ve been fortunate in one-run games. Can’t say the same for Cleveland, who is the only team in MLB yet to win a one-run affair (0-4). Look for Houston to take charge in the West.The East is the most intriguing division in the AL. With the Red Sox starting fast, everyone except Baltimore should be a contender. Boston is top five (in all of baseball) in runs scored, but the Blue Jays and Yankees have been very good at run suppression. Not sure where this leaves Tampa Bay.Three teams from the East (Toronto, Yankees, Baltimore) are in the top six for most Unders in the first month. Ahead of them are: Kansas City (15-7-1), the Mets (12-5-2) and Detroit (19-7 Under). The Mets and Tigers are the two lowest scoring teams in baseball right now. As of this writing, the Tigers have gone Under in 13 straight.Cincinnati is 17-6-1 to the Over this year, easily #1 in that department. That shouldn’t be a surprise given what I mentioned above. Interestingly, the next two highest scoring teams (White Sox, Arizona) are not among the league leaders in Overs. In fact, only two teams besides the Reds have gone Over at least three more times than they’ve gone Under. Those would be Atlanta and the Angels, the latter of whom is giving up the most runs per game at 5.9.  I hope this provides some insight and I will be sure to have multiple updates as we get into the summer months. 

Read more

Follow us @bigal_com

Instagram Twitter

Links

Big Al's Sports Picks Info

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's BigAl.com. All Rights Reserved.