Articles

NCAA Tournament - A Few "Longer" Shots to Consider

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Feb 24, 2022

Looking for a few "longer" shots to win the Big Dance?  Here are a few we're looking at...UCLA +2000 (current odds at PointsBet) The Bruins are currently 20-5 on the season and 3 of their 5 losses have come by 3 points or less.  The other 2 losses were both on a neutral site vs Gonzaga (#1 team per Ken Pom) and @ Arizona (#2 team per Ken Pom).  They are one of only four teams in the nation ranked inside the top 15 in offensive and defensive efficiency on Ken Pom’s list.  The others are Gonzaga (+350), Arizona (+800), and Baylor (+1400) and each of those 3 teams have much shorter odds to win it all than this UCLA team.  They are an experienced team that returned 93% of their minutes from a team that made the Final 4 last season.  Not only did they make the Final 4, they nearly went to the National Championship game but lost to Gonzaga in OT in the semi finals.  UCLA returns all but 14 minutes from that 6 game tourney run so we’re getting a team that won’t be out of sorts once the tournament hits.  Been there, done that.  They are deep, have good size, and have very solid guard play (5th nationally in lowest turnover rate).  This team is definitely worth a strong look with their current odds sitting at 20/1. HOUSTON +3500 (current odds at PointsBet) Another team that has plenty of NCAA experience.  The Cougars were also a Final 4 team last year and were upended by eventual National Champion Baylor.  They brought back some key players from that team and added some high level transfers from Texas Tech, UConn, and Cal State Bakersfield.  Houston is 23-4 on the season and 3 of those 4 losses have come by 2 points or less including setbacks vs Wisconsin and Alabama.  They did lose 2 key players, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, to season ending injuries in December but they’ve had plenty of time to adapt and only lost 2 games since they went out two and a half months ago.  We spoke above of UCLA’s efficiency rankings and Houston is right there with the best in the country.  They are one of only five teams that rank inside the top 16 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  The Cougars are winning games by an average of 17 PPG and they are stellar on the defensive end ranking 1st nationally allowing opponents to hit only 36% of their shots while allowing just 59 PPG (9th nationally).  They are led by a veteran head coach, Kelvin Sampson, who has over 600 career wins and has taken two different teams to the Final Four (Oklahoma & Houston).  We’re taking a shot with Houston at 35/1.   

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, EPL, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/24/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 24, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association returns after the All-Star break hiatus with seven games on the docket. Cleveland visits Detroit at 7:10 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with the total set at 209.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Boston plays at Brooklyn in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 213.5. Three more NBA games tip-off at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago hosts Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 234.5. Memphis travels to Minnesota as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 239. Phoenix is at Oklahoma City as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 215. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. Denver plays at Sacramento as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Golden State visits Portland in the nightcap on TNT as a 9-point road favorite with a total of 223.5. The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:05 PM ET for four games. Toronto plays at home against Minnesota as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Florida is at home against Columbus as a -390 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Pittsburgh hosts New Jersey as a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers play at home against Washington on ESPN as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. Nashville is at home against Dallas at 8:35 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more NHL games start at 10:05 PM ET. Boston plays at Seattle as a -230 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Calgary travels to Vancouver as a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NHL card concludes with the New York Islanders playing at San Jose at 10:35 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Thursday college basketball card has 12 games on national television. Wagner visits Farleigh Dickinson on the CBS Sports Network at 6 PM ET as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Three televised NCAA-B games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Memphis is at home against Temple on ESPN2 as an 11-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Winthrop plays at home against South Carolina Upstate on ESPNU as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Indiana hosts Maryland on FS1 as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. DePaul travels to Georgetown on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Three more televised NCAA-B games begin at 9 PM ET. Gonzaga plays at San Francisco on ESPN2 as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 156.5. Illinois is at home against Ohio State on FS1 as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Murray State hosts Belmont on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 144. UCLA visits Oregon on ESPN at 9:30 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 139. BYU is at home against Loyola-Marymount on the CBS Sports Network on 10 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 142. Two televised games complete the NCAA-B card at 11 PM ET. USC plays at Oregon State on ESPN2 as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 140. Arizona is at Utah on FS1 as an 11.5-point road favorite with a total of 150.Matchweek 26 in the English Premier League concludes with one match at 2:45 PM ET. Arsenal hosts Wolverhampton on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite at PlayMGM with an over/under of 2.5.

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NBA: Coming Out Of The Break

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Feb 23, 2022

NBA: Coming Out Of The BreakEastern ConferenceThe top four teams in the East are Boston, Miami, Cleveland and Milwaukee. I say that based on two things: point differential and net efficiency. That doesn’t match up with the standings where the top four are Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia and Cleveland. In particular, look for Boston to move up the standings. They are only sixth right now, but statistically have the best profile. Over the last 10 games, they held opponents to an average of 95.9 points per game. The only worry I have is whether or not the All-Star Break “came at the wrong time” and will lead to a loss of momentum.Chicago and Philadelphia will round out the top six, who are all currently separated by only 4.5 games. Really, the thing to look for is Boston and Chicago flipping spots in the pecking order.As for the play-in spots, Toronto, Brooklyn (despite the awful losing streak) and Atlanta look to be safe bets. The last spot will go to either Charlotte or New York. Nothing about the other remaining teams - Washington, Indiana, Orlando and Detroit - says “playoff team.” The Knicks have more ground to make up than the Wizards, believe it or not, so right now I’d say they finish as the team on the outside looking in. Charlotte is somehow 0-6 in overtime games this year, an unfortunate record that will probably improve. Western ConferenceThere’s a clear top four here: Phoenix, Golden State, Memphis and Utah. Utah has actually outscored its opponents - per possession and per game - by a larger margin than Memphis, but trails the Grizzlies by four games. I would be shocked if these teams didn’t finish as the top four at the end of the regular season.Dallas, Denver and Minnesota will battle for the last two remaining spots in the top six, who get to avoid the play-in round. Of those three, Dallas is most likely to finish in front. The Lakers and Clippers are going to be relegated to the play-in round. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. In fact, the Lakers are projected for only 37 wins right now. The race for the last play-in spot is going to be interesting. I think San Antonio deserves it. They’ve scored more points than they’ve allowed this year, something that neither the Clippers or Lakers can say. Statistically, the Spurs are having a much better season than the Blazers or Pelicans. Best ATS Teams Memphis 39-20-1 Oklahoma City 37-19-2 Cleveland 33-22-3 Chicago 35-24 Miami 33-24-2 Worst ATS Teams Houston 22-35-1 Brooklyn 22-35-2 Washington 22-33-2 Orlando 25-34-1 Atlanta 25-32-1 Best Over Teams Houston 35-21-2 Minnesota 36-23  Chicago 33-24-2 Miami 34-25 LA Lakers 32-24-2 Best Under Teams Dallas 36-21-2 Cleveland 35-21-2 Philadelphia 34-24 Oklahoma City 33-24-1 Boston 34-25-1

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Are The Memphis Grizzlies For Real?

by AAA Sports

Wednesday, Feb 23, 2022

The home stretch is all that remains in this odd NBA season, and out West, more and more standings watchers and hard-core bettors are starting to pay attention to the Memphis Grizzlies, who may have – under the radar – assembled what may be shaping up as the next powerhouse in the Association.Since flaming out if the Bubble a few seasons ago, the Grizzlies’ numbers are staggering. Over the last two Covid-scarred seasons, they somehow are 82-50 against the spread, including 40-20 this season. Suffice to say, that’s the best in the NBA, and it’s doubtful that any of the other decent cover teams (Oklahoma City, Chicago, Toronto) will have a better betting scorecard once the regular season finishes up in mid-April.How did the Grizz get so good, so fast? Actually, not so fast. Since bottoming out (22-60 SU) in 2017-18, Memphis has gotten steadily better each year since. And lucky. Very, very lucky. Especially on May 15, 2019, when the Ping Pong balls fell their way and the New Orleans Pelicans got the No. 1 pick and were saddled with the heaping, injured mass that now passes for Zion Williamson. The Grizz settled for a 6-foot-3 guard from mid-major Murray State named Ja Morant, and Memphis was off to the races.Like many stars, Morant has missed some time this season, and to be honest his MVP chances suffered a tad when the Grizzlies played well without him. But he’s still on the periphery of the chase, in the mix with luminaries such as Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan, last year’s winner Nikola Jokic and this year’s heavy favorite Joel Embiid. Morant is at +1800 and would need bad things to happen to the others to pull through, but just to be listed in the conversation speaks volumes about what he has done for the franchise.Memphis won’t be able to catch Phoenix for the top seed in the West, and likely won’t fall to fourth unless Utah goes nuts in the final eight weeks. But the Grizzlies have a legitimate shot at catching third-place Golden State for second in the West, and possibly securing home-court advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs.Speaking of the playoffs, neither Memphis’s solid season nor its 8-2 pre-All Star Game tear (that despite a trap game loss at home to Portland in the final game before the break) has impressed oddsmakers all that much. Yes, the Grizzlies have melted the odds of winning the title from +10000 pre-season to +2500 currently, but the books still think either other teams – Golden State, Phoenix, Brooklyn, Milwaukee,Philadelphia, Miami – have a better shot than does Memphis. And they even list Boston (underachiever all year) and Utah (limping of late) at +2500, the same as Memphis. As Rodney Dangerfield would say if he was still here, “How do you get any respect around here?”The final leg of the season starts Thursday night in Minnesota, where the Grizzlies will be a +2.5-point road favorite. Tough games at Chicago and Boston are also on the docket before they begin a very benign eight-game stats-fattening run against teams with losing records before the schedule toughens again over the final few weeks of the regular season.All the while, bettors need to answer a few questions as they ponder laying money down on a young-and-hungry Grizzlies team:1.      After covering two games out of every three since October, is there any meat left on the bone, or will a combination of complacency and books adjusting the spreads bring Memphis back to the pack?2.      Will the Grizzlies, who are the NBA’s No. 1 offensive team (113.8 ppg), be able to continue their success in the playoffs when opponents can game-plan and play tends to slow down?“Our goal is to win the championship, and I feel like as long as we stay locked in, continue to grow together, play together, that goal can be achieved,” Morant said at the All-Star festivities. “We just got to stay the course, take it day by day and let it play out.”

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Big Al's NHL, NCAAB, EPL and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 02/23/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 23, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NHL, NCAAB, EPL, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The puck drops for four games at 7:35 PM ET. Dallas hosts Winnipeg as a -155 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Buffalo visits Montreal with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Colorado is at Detroit as a -280 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Tampa Bay plays at home against Edmonton in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:35 PM ET as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Los Angeles travels to Arizona in the nightcap on TNT at 10:05 PM ET as a -220 money line road favorite with a total of 6.The Wednesday college basketball card includes 11 games on national television. St. John’s hosts Creighton on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Five televised games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Duke visits Virginia on ESPN as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 130.5. Providence is at home against Xavier on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point favorite and an over/under of 139. Notre Dame plays at home against Syracuse on ESPN News as a 5-point favorite with a total of 146. Iowa State hosts West Virginia on ESPNU as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132. Texas plays at home against TCU on ESPN2 as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 127.5. Seton Hall is at home against Butler on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Three more NCAA-B games start at 9 PM ET. Kentucky hosts LSU on ESPN as a 7-point favorite with a total of 142. Central Florida plays at home against Cincinnati on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Colorado State is at home against Wyoming on the CBS Sports Network as a 6-point favorite with a total of 144. Washington State hosts Washington on ESPNU at 11 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Matchweek 26 in the English Premier League continues with three matches on Peacock. Two games begin at 2:30 PM ET. Tottenham plays at Burnley as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Crystal Palace travels to Watford in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool plays at home against Leeds United at 2:45 PM ET as a -2.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 4. The first leg of the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with two matches at 3 PM ET. Manchester United visits Atletico Madrid on CBS in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Ajax plays at Benfica on Paramount+ and fuboTV as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3.

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NCAAB Top 25: Overrated and Underrated

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022

After skipping this exercise in the month of January, I’m back with another look at the current Top 25 in College Basketball. This will probably be the final time I do this prior to the start of the Conference Tournaments.For those who may have missed previous editions, this is pretty simple. Here are my views on which College Basketball teams are rated too high, too low, or maybe shouldn’t be rated at all. There is also a team that I feel should be in the Top 25, but failed to make the latest poll. Ranked Too HighProvidence (#11 AP/#10 Coaches) - I’ve talked about this group before. Obviously, at 22-3 straight up and leading the Big East, the Friars do deserve to be ranked. But it’s worth pointing out that KenPom has them at #46, which is one spot below where they are in my own personal power ratings. The Friars have the top luck rating at KenPom and are an unfathomable 10-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. In their last game, they came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to defeat Butler in overtime. It was Providence’s second OT win in the last three games and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. I have them as only the SIXTH best team in the Big East! Be willing to consider an early exit from the Big East Tournament for this lucky group and I will certainly be looking to fade them in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.Wisconsin (#13 AP/#12 Coaches) - Same thing as Providence here. The Badgers have been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. So it’s not quite the discrepancy that exists with Providence. My own ratings are a little lower on Wisconsin, putting them at #30 and calling them just the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10. Note they were recently underdogs in a win at Indiana, who is not one of the six I have ahead. Again, look to fade when appropriate.USC (#16 AP/#16 Coaches) - KenPom has the Trojans at #28 while I’ve got them at #25. They just pulled off a close one at home vs. Washington State on Sunday night, winning in the final second, 62-60. Thankfully, for me, Wazzu was still a winner plus the points. USC is now 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less, so there’s a running theme in this “ranked too high” category. Eventually, these teams’ “luck” WILL run out.Ranked Too Low Houston (#14 AP/#15 Coaches) - I had the Cougars in this spot back in December. They are a Top 7 team according to both KenPom and my own power ratings. ESPN’s BPI ratings have them at #3. I’d be stunned if the Cougars, who were a Final Four team last year, didn’t steamroll through their conference tournament (American) and earn a high seed.Tennessee (#17 AP/#17 Coaches) - This isn’t too bad, but I thought it was harsh for the coaches to drop the Vols four spots in their latest poll. This is a Top 12 team in my eyes and KenPom’s. They just beat Kentucky last week (only to then lose at Arkansas). The Vols are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency.Iowa (#25 AP/NR Coaches) - The Hawkeyes are top five in offensive efficiency and don’t turn the ball over very often. I think they’re a Top 16 team in the country and the third best team in the Big 10 (not that far off from Purdue and Illinois). KenPom agrees! It was rather shocking that they were 4-6 SU to start conference play. Expect a strong finish.Should Be RankedLSU - The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March. 

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Soccer: A Look At Europe's Big 4 Leagues

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022

I’m back with a look at Europe’s “Big 4” soccer leagues and what you should be looking for when wagering on the English Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A. Premier LeagueAs it has been known for some time now, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are destined to finish as the top three. Liverpool has closed the gap on Man City to six points and they have a match in hand. Both GD (goal differential) and xPts (expected points) say it will be a tight race for the title with Chelsea (by their own manager’s admission) likely ending up off the pace. None of this information is at all Earth-shattering.But the big question is still who will finish fourth and grab the last Champions League spot for next season? It’s a five-horse race with Manchester United, West Ham, Arsenal, Wolverhampton and Tottenham all vying. I believe there’s a gap between those first three sides and the last two with Wolverhampton in particular lagging behind in xPts. Tottenham has a GD of 0 and that’s after the stunner against Man City on Saturday. Right now, I’d bet on Arsenal to finish fourth, just in front of Man U. The Gunners have THREE matches in hand over United, which is key. Remember that West Ham made the jump from 16th to 6th place last season, thus I still think there’s some regression there.Brighton, Southampton, Leicester City, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are all solid mid-table sides that shouldn’t have to worry about relegation. I do think CP is much better than its current position while Leicester and Villa deserve to be lower. The relegation battle has gotten a lot more interesting over the last few weeks. The X-factor is Burnley having played only 22 matches (most everyone else has played 24) and whether or not they can accrue enough points to get out of the drop zone. I do think Norwich City, whose -38 GD is by far the worst in the EPL, is destined to be sent back to the second tier. Newcastle seems to have spent enough where you think they may be safe. If so, expect Watford (like Norwich) to be one and done in the top flight. Leeds United is the team that could fall hard as well, especially if Burnley pulls itself out of the hole.La Liga This is the league where I have the most questions about the top. Real Madrid has certainly looked like the best team thus far and would be my pick to finish first. Certainly, they are the lone guarantee for the top four at this point. Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal (who are 4th-6th respectively) are coming for the other spots though. I consider all three to be better than Sevilla and Real Betis, though Sevilla may have built up a big enough cushion where they are likely to remain top four. Beyond the top six, Real Sociedad (-1 GD) seems to have really fallen off while Athletic Bilbao could still contend for the Europa League. After that, the middle of the table is occupied by the likes of Celta Vigo, Osusana, Rayo Vallecano, Valencia and Espanyol. None of these teams should have to worry about relegation.The relegation battle here is very wide open. Last year, none of the bottom three in xPts (Granada, Cadiz, Elche) ended up relegated due to some good luck. Those three same sides are again the bottom three in xPts in 2021/22! But again, of the three, only Cadiz (18th) is currently in the drop zone. Elche is 14th (nine points clear) while Granada is on shakier ground in 17th (only four points clear). I don’t think Cadiz (who is currently last in xPts) can escape relegation again. What’s really interesting is Levante, who is last in the league with 15 points and needs at least nine more to guarantee safety, is ahead of EIGHT teams in xPts! Can they prove the metrics right and escape relegation? If so, Alaves and Granada are most likely to join Cadiz in the Segunda Division next season.BundesligaOver in Germany is where I am most confident in who will finish in the top four: Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig. Out of that quartet, it is third place Leverkusen that I am least certain about. They are only sixth in xPts.It should be a very interesting battle for the rest of the European spots between Hoffenheim, Freiburg, FC Union Berlin, FC Koln and Mainz. All of those sides are currently separated by just three points, plus Hoffenheim and Freiburg are actually tied with Leipzig for fourth. But GD shows there’s a gap between the top four and everyone else. Hoffenheim and Freiburg (+10 each) have the best GD of the rest, but the former is actually last in xPts among this group. The reverse is true for FC Union Berlin, who has the worst GD of the bunch, but running fourth in the league in xPts. I can’t call who will finish fifth or sixth right now (maybe Freiburg and Mainz?)I’m just going to skip over the middle of the table and move to the bottom where the relegation battle has gotten interesting. Greuther Furth remains a solid choice to be one of the two sides automatically relegated at season’s end. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Arminia Bielefeld actually has the fewest xPts in the league, but has moved to 14th place and their -7 GD is better than all the teams they are competing against. I think Hertha Berlin (-26 GD) is in serious trouble and will finish second from the bottom. Augsburg and Stuttgart will be vying to avoid the relegation playoff (whomever finishes third worst). Serie AThis is the one league where I am confident we are going to see a change at the very top. Look for either Inter (the current Scudetto holders) or Napoli to unseat AC Milan for first. Juventus should be the ones to round out the top four, leaving Atalanta on the outside looking in for the Champions League next season. Roma should finish sixth and get the Europa League qualifying spot.The reason I like Roma more than Lazio is that no team has exceeded its xG (expected goal) total in all of Europe more than Lazio has. There’s got to be some regression forthcoming.Looking at the middle of the table, Sampdoria and Udinese should move up a few spots, passing Empoli and Bologna (and Spezia in the case of Udinese).  The relegation battle in Italy seems a lot more cut and dry. Salernitana and Genoa both look doomed to be in Serie B next season. I think Cagliari fights its way out of the drop zone, which would leave Venezia as the most likely third candidate for relegation. 

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Few and the 'Zags: Back to One

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022

In April of 1999, Don Monson, who had just finished his second year as Gonzaga head coach, promoted Mark Few to associate head coach. This came on the heels of the just completed 1998-99 college basketball season in which Gonzaga became the nation's basketball darlings. The Bulldogs had just made a run through the NCAA tournament, defeating Minnesota, Stanford, and Florida, to advance to the Elite Eight in the West Regional finals, where Gonzaga lost to eventual national champions UConn by five points. As fate would have it, the Minnesota head coaching job opened in late July and Monson left to take that job. Few, who had been designated as Monson's successor, was promoted to head coach to begin the 1999-2000 season. Right before the season began, in September of 1999, Brian McKnight released a song called "Back to One," and that is where I got the title for my latest article. Let me explain.Mark Few's Bulldogs would reach the Sweet 16 that season, finishing with a 26-9 record. Since that first season, Few has led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament EVERY season (except 2019–20, when the team had secured an automatic bid but the tournament was canceled), a stretch that has turned Gonzaga into a major basketball power, despite playing in a mid-major conference. I don't have the time to go into detail regarding all that Few and Gonzaga has accomplished over the last two-plus decades but I'm sure all are aware that despite Few's incredible records at "The Little School that Could," the glaring missing piece is the absence of a national championship banner hanging in the rafters of the McCarthey Athletic Center.Mark Few has led Gonzaga to 21 straight NCAA berths in his 22 years (2020 tourney was cancelled), entering this season doing everything BUT win a national championship. However, he's led the Bulldogs into the title game TWICE in the last four seasons. Last year's loss was a 'killer,' as Gonzaga was No. 1 wire-to-wire and at 31-0, was looking to match Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, which was the last team to go unbeaten (32-0) and win the title. However, 73 years after it last played for a national title, Baylor 'jumped all over' the Bulldogs early in the game and never looked back in an 86-70 victory. It was Baylor's first national title and extinguished Gonzaga’s ambitions for wire-to-wire perfection. However, to no one's surprise, Gonzaga was ranked No. 1 in the AP's preseason poll to open the current season (defending champion Baylor was ranked eighth).The Bulldogs would open 6-0, including impressive wins over then-No. 5 Texas (86-74) and then-No. 2 UCLA (83-63. However, on the day after Thanksgiving, Gonzaga would lose 84-81 to Duke (the game was played in Spokane, Wa) and when the new AP poll was released (Monday, Nov 29), Gonzaga dropped to No. 3, while Duke jumped from No.  5 to No. 1. Duke only stayed at No. 1 for one week, when an 8-0 Purdue team became the AP's No. 1-ranked team on Dec 6, for the FIRST time in school history. However, just like with Duke, Purdue's 'reign' lasted only one week. Rising to No. 1 on Dec 13 was defending champion Baylor, which had opened 9-0, while sporting a 15-game winning streak that included the team's 6-0 run in last season's NCAA tourney. Baylor was a unanimous No. 1 (got all first-place votes) and stayed No. 1 for five straight weeks (four times, earning all 61 first-place votes!). Baylor's winning streak reached 21 straight (15-0 in the current season), before the Bears lost back-to-back home games to Texas Tech on Jan 11 (65-62) and to Oklahoma St on Jan 15 (61-54). That ended the team's run at No. 1 and the AP's new No. 1 team became 14-2 Gonzaga, but with an asterisk. Auburn actually received 36 first-place votes to Gonzaga's 25, but  the Bulldogs were able to eke out more overall points, as some voters placed Auburn lower than any reasonable person would be expected to. By the following week, Auburn, 18-1 and on a 15-game winning streak, got 45 first-place votes to Gonzaga's 15 (Arizona snared one), as the Tigers earned the school's first-ever No. 1 ranking on Jan 24, while becoming the FIFTH school this season to be ranked at No. 1.Auburn's stay at No. 1 lasted three weeks, as the Tigers extended their winning streak to 19 straight games. However, Auburn lost 80-76 (OT) at Arkansas on Feb 8 and when the new AP poll came out on Valentine's Day,  Auburn fell to No. 2 and Gonzaga ('America's Sweetheart') returned to No. 1 for the THIRD time this season with 54 first-place votes. Lopsided wins over Pepperdine and Santa Clara last week clinched a 10th straight WCC regular-season title for Gonzaga and on Monday (Feb 21), Gonzaga was "Back at One," as the unanimous No. 1 in the latest AP poll. The 23-2 Zags haven't lost since Dec 4 and have now won 16 in a row.Let me add a few notes here about Gonzaga. With its back-to-back No. 1 ranking the last two weeks, Gonzaga has now been ranked No. 1 in 32 of the last 73 AP polls.  Duke has 11 No. 1 rankings in that same time frame and Baylor 10. The Bulldogs are averaging 89.5 PPG (tops in the nation) and are looking to lead the nation in scoring for the FOURTH consecutive year (note: Gonzaga is making 52.9% of its FG attempts this season, which also ranks No. 1). Let me take a quick look at Gonzaga's domination of the West Coast Conference. Gonzaga is winning its WCC games by an average of 27 points, one of the most dominant conference seasons in the past 25 years, according to KenPom.com. Gonzaga is on pace to match the 2019 team for the largest margin of victory in conference games. The Bulldogs own FOUR of the top five spots on that list in the last 25 years, joined by the 1999 Duke team. Gonzaga is truly "Back at One" but of course, needs to "win it all" in 2022. Is this finally the season when college basketball's one-time 'Cinderella,' turned elite basketball power, stands atop the podium come April 4th?Some closing thoughts. How about Arizona? The Wildcats were picked to finish tied for fourth in the Pac-12 Conference in a preseason poll but under first-year head coach Tommy Lloyd (a 22-year assistant under Few at Gonzaga!), 24-2 Arizona (No. 2 to Gonzaga in Monday's poll) is 14-1 in the Pac-12, giving them a 2½-game lead over No. 16 USC, which is 23-4 overall (12-4 in the Pac 12). Gonzaga's 'tentacles' are reaching out. Sticking with a WCC theme, is anyone else amazed that entering the final week of February, the WCC has two top-25 teams (St Mary's is ranked No. 23), while the all-powerful ACC has just one ranked team in No. 7 Duke?  How about a couple of 'shout outs' to 26-2 Murray State of the OVC. The Racers have won 16 straight games, tied with South Dakota St of the Summit (25-4 / 16-0), for the nation's longest-active winning streak. In the case of Murray St, the Racers entered the AP rankings back on Feb 7 at No. 22 (1st time since a one-week stay back in March of 2015) and opened the new week ranked for the THIRD consecutive week (up to No. 19). However, for every Yin, there is a Yang! The 'Yang' goes to Michigan, which was No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll (coming off a 23-5 season), but with its Sunday loss at Wisconsin, Michigan checks in at 14-11 (8-7 in the Big Ten).  Making matters worse was this press release on Monday which stated that Juwan Howard, the head coach of the University of Michigan men’s basketball team, was suspended for the rest of the regular season for his part in a postgame fracas in which he appeared to strike a University of Wisconsin assistant coach in the head. Has anyone seen the tape? Did it look to you like Howard "appeared" to strike a University of Wisconsin assistant coach in the head? And so it goes. Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 02/22/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 22, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NHL, NCAAB, and UEFA Champions League action.The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The puck drops in four games at 7:05 PM ET. St. Louis visits Philadelphia as a -205 money line road favorite with the total set at 6 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Minnesota is at Ottawa as a -230 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida plays at home against Nashville as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Toronto travels to Columbus as a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The NHL card concludes with two games starting at 10:05 PM ET. Anaheim plays at home against San Jose as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders visit Seattle as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Tuesday college basketball card includes nine games on national television. Arkansas travels to Florida on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Razorbacks won their 11th game in their last 13 with a 58-48 victory against Tennessee as a  2-point favorite on Saturday. They raised their record to 21-6 with the win. The Gators won their fifth game in their last seven with a 63-62 upset victory against Auburn as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Florida improved to 17-10 with the win. Arkansas is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 136. Iowa hosts Michigan State on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Hawkeyes won their fourth game in a row with their 75-62 upset victory at Ohio State as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. They have an 18-8 record. The Spartans lost their fourth game in their last five in a 79-74 loss to Illinois as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Michigan State’s record dropped to 18-8. Iowa is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. St. Bonaventure is at home against Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Bonnies are on a five-game winning streak after their 81-55 victory against Duquesne as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 17-7 record. The Rams lost eight games in their last nine with a 72-61 upset loss at George Washington as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Rhode Island’s record fell to 13-12 with the setback. St. Bonaventure is an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 133.Texas A&M plays at home against Georgia on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Aggies lost their ninth game in their last ten in a 72-67 loss at Vanderbilt as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. They have a 16-11 record. The Bulldogs are on a seven-game losing streak after their 85-68 loss to Mississippi as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. The Rebels’ record dropped to 6-21 with the defeat. Texas A&M is an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5.Connecticut is at home against Villanova on FS1 at 8 PM ET. The Huskies won their third-straight game with a 72-61 victory against Xavier as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. UConn raised their record to 19-7. The Wildcats have won five straight games after their 74-66 victory against Georgetown as a 19.5-point favorite on Saturday. Villanova improved to 21-6 on the year. Connecticut is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 136.Kansas hosts Kansas State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Jayhawks won their third game in a row with a 71-58 victory at West Virginia as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 22-4 record. The Wildcats had their two-game winning streak end in an 82-79 loss at Oklahoma State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas State’s record dropped to 14-12. Kansas is a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Boise State plays at home against San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Broncos won their fourth game in their last five with a 68-57 victory against Utah State as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 21-6 record. The Aztecs are on a five-game winning streak with their 61-44 win at Fresno State as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. The Aztecs improved their record to 17-6 with the win. Boise State is a 2-point favorite with a total of 120. Utah State is at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 10 PM ET. The Aggies are on a four-game losing streak after their loss to Boise State on Saturday. They have a 15-13 record. The Aztecs lost their second-straight game in a 71-55 upset loss at San Jose State as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. New Mexico’s record fell to 11-16. Utah State is a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Nevada hosts UNLV on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET. The Wolf Pack are on a three-game winning streak with a 90-60 victory as an 8-point favorite on Thursday. They raised their record to 12-13 with the win. The Rebels won their third game in their last four with their 72-51 upset victory against Colorado State as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. UNLV has a 16-12 record. Nevada is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 145. The first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues with two matches at 3 PM ET. Chelsea plays at home against Lille on CBS as a -1.5 goal line favorite at PlayMGM with an over/under of 2.5.Juventus visits Villarreal on Paramount+ and fuboTV in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5.

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Finding Hidden Value: Maryland-Eastern Shore

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Feb 21, 2022

Don’t sleep on the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament coming up in about two weeks. After being one of ten Division I programs that did not play a single game last season because of the COVID pandemic, many college basketball prognosticators projected Maryland-Eastern Shore to be the worst team in the country this season. Not so — this group beat Fordham in double-overtime earlier this season. They lost by just nine points at Connecticut. Granted, this is a team that was still just 3-7 in conference play going into their game at North Carolina-Central on Monday (February 21st) — but head coach Jason Crafton has done a fine job with his squad. And his team does some things that make them intriguing road warriors. For starters, they are one of the best teams in the nation in forcing turnovers. The Hawks rank 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. In Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference play, they lead the league by forcing turnovers in 26.3% of their opponents' possessions. In concluding that Maryland-Eastern Shore playing as an underdog at North Carolina-Central in their February 21st contest would be my 25* CBB Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Game of the Year, I was intrigued by how vulnerable the Eagles are very vulnerable in the turnover department. They ranked 238th in the nation by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their opponent’s possessions going into that game. In conference play, North Carolina-Central turns the ball over 24.3% of the time. This defensive pressure helps Maryland-Eastern Shore boast the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in conference play using one of the analytics formulas I track — and they are second in the MEAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road using those metrics. The Hawks also do a couple of things that make them dangerous. They are third in the conference by rebounding 31.7% of their missed shots when playing on the road. They also nail 36% of their 3-point shots on the road in conference play. Maryland-Eastern Shore had covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games on the road. And while it was their second game since last Monday, the Hawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when playing second games in seven days. Furthermore, Maryland-Eastern Shore is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home.North Carolina-Central won the first meeting between these two teams by a 75-63 score as a 3-point favorite on the road. The Eagles made 11 of their 25 shots (44%) from behind the arc which is a number they are not likely to replicate since they rank 276th in the nation by making only 31.6% of their 3-point shots. Tellingly, North Carolina-Central committed 18 turnovers in that game while turning the ball over in 27.3% of their possessions against the Hawks’ pressure. Maryland-Eastern Shore has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a double-digit loss.We were rewarded with a 79-66 victory by Maryland-Eastern Shore at North Carolina-Central where much of the handicapping was vindicated. Although the Hawks went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 43-31 score, they outscored the Eagles by a 48-23 margin to pull the upset and easily cover the +6.5 point spread. Once again, the Maryland-Eastern Shore pressure played a big role as they forced 22 turnovers representing 31.0% of the Eagles’ possessions. The Hawks did not create many more scoring opportunities from second-chances as they only pulled down five boards on the offensive glass. Then again, it is harder to pull down offensive boards when you make 52.8% of your shots. The x-factor for Maryland-Eastern Shore was their 3-point shooting as they nailed 14 of their 24 shots (58.3%) of their shots from distance. That 36% clip from behind the arc on the road in conference play pointed to a possible hot-shooting like this. And it overcame North Carolina-Central once again shooting well from 3-point land against the Hawks once again as they made 7 of their 18 shots (38.9%) of their 3-pointers.This was a nice win for us since it embodied so many of the elements of what we are looking for during March Madness. Teams that create more scoring opportunities rather it be from forcing turnovers or from pulling down offensive rebounds (or both) provide a Plan B if their shots are not falling. And teams that shoot the 3-ball well can always steal games by shooting great from distance. Moving forward, Maryland-Eastern Shore is a team to keep an eye for some point spread value in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament. Best of luck — Frank.

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NCAA Tournament Bubble Prospects: ACC

by Nelly's Sports

Monday, Feb 21, 2022

The ACC has sent seven teams to each of the past two NCAA Tournaments and had nine in the field in both 2017 and 2018. The conference has fallen in stature in a big way this season as many projections call for five or fewer teams making the bracket this year. Here is a look at the remaining path and prospects for the ACC squads that are likely to land near the bubble on Selection Sunday.  Duke is really the only ACC team firmly in the NCAA Tournament field right now, projecting as a likely #2 seed at 23-4. While three of the final four are on the road for Duke to close the regular season, it is a reasonable path as the Blue Devils look likely to hold that line. It would take quite a lot for Duke to climb to the #1 line in the current projection as the Blue Devils are currently much closer to a #3 spot than a #1.  Beyond Duke there are only five other teams with winning records in ACC play (as of Feb. 21) as the powerhouse basketball conference may have another quiet March. Last season only two of seven ACC teams in the field won their first games with Florida State and Syracuse reaching the Sweet 16 for the best performances. No ACC team was seeded better than a #4 last season however as Duke is capable of being in a better position and would likely land a favorable Greenville placement for its opening game(s). Here are seven ACC teams on a generous consideration of the current NCAA Tournament bubble.  Notre Dame: Second place in the ACC belongs to Notre Dame for the moment, even after last week’s loss to Wake Forest. Mike Brey’s team has delivered a great turnaround from starting the season 4-5 but there is not a great margin for error for the Irish. The home win over Kentucky in December continues to provide a huge boost to the profile but that is one of only two top 50 caliber wins all season. The ACC schedule for Notre Dame has been favorable and will continue to be favorable as the Irish should be in a safe position projecting to finish with at least 14 wins, which would clearly warrant inclusion in the field.  Miami, FL: The Hurricanes have been a surprise performer in the ACC reaching 11-5 with four games to go. With games against Pittsburgh and Boston College remaining, a 13-win ACC campaign should be enough to keep the Hurricanes on the right side of the cut line. Miami did not accomplish many noteworthy wins in the non-conference schedule, but this team has quality wins in ACC play at Duke and at Virginia Tech, home against North Carolina, and sweeping Wake Forest. They were swept by both Florida State and Virginia but ultimately winning at Duke is likely to carry enough weight for the Hurricanes barring a major collapse.  Wake Forest: The Demon Deacons have one of the weakest non-conference profiles in the nation as this is a squad that could be more at risk of falling out of the field than some of the others on this list. Wake Forest went 11-1 in non-conference play but lost by 14 against LSU in the most meaningful contest. Overtime wins over Oregon State and Northwestern don’t carry as much weight as they did earlier in the season and the 11-6 ACC record is a bit empty, with the only notable results being home wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame plus a road win at Virginia Tech in the December ACC opener. The win over the Irish last weekend was a huge result that likely keeps Wake Forest in the field but avoiding multiple losses in a favorable three-game stretch to close the season would be advised.  North Carolina: The Tar Heels took on a heavyweight schedule but the only win in an early season quartet facing Purdue, Tennessee, Michigan, and Kentucky, came against the Wolverines team that is also bound for the bubble as one of the nation’s biggest disappointments. A sweep of Virginia Tech is really all the success the Tar Heels can point to in an 11-5 ACC path through a favorable conference schedule. North Carolina is 0-4 against the teams above them on this list but they will get a rematch opportunity against Duke in the regular season finale. Getting to 14-6 in ACC play without beating Duke would be enough for the Tar Heels in most scenarios but a slip-up in an upcoming game against Louisville, NC State, or Syracuse could be damaging.  Virginia Tech: The metrics like the Hokies better than a casual glance at the resume would as the Hokies get credit for a solid non-conference path even without winning any of the important games while producing a few lopsided wins vs. similar caliber teams has helped the cause. The current form with a 6-1 run in the past seven games has Mike Young’s team trending upward but three of the final four in the regular season are on the road including toss-up games with Miami and Clemson. The offensive efficiency for the Hokies is impressive but only one win has come against a team that would earn an at-large tournament spot, beating Notre Dame at home in January. With the possible exception of losing at Boston College, there aren’t bad losses for the Hokies, but there are 11 and counting as this squad feels like a group that will have plenty of reasons for exclusion unless they put together a very strong finish.  Virginia: The Cavaliers are not a NCAA Tournament team right now, but the case could get there if they are able to beat Duke for a second time this week. Virginia has a solid 11-6 record in ACC play including the road win at Duke plus four other ACC road wins. Sweeping Miami is also a positive boost on the resume depending on where the Hurricanes wind up in the final standings. Virginia also won at Syracuse for a head-to-head trump card against another potential bubble team. The ACC record includes going 4-0 vs. Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Georgia Tech and Virginia will have a hard time overcoming multiple bad losses, falling in the season opener vs. Navy and at James Madison, in addition to dropping an ACC game at NC State.  Syracuse: The Orange under Jim Boeheim routinely weasel their way on to the bubble with enough quality wins to offset a high loss count. The path is there for a similar outcome for Syracuse this season, and last year after barely being included the Orange were able to win two games. 5-1 in the past six, Syracuse is trending upward and while the final four games on the schedule are all difficult, it will provide the quality Syracuse may need. The big fish will be the home game with Duke next weekend before closing with games against North Carolina and Miami, as getting to 12-8 through remaining path would make a compelling case. Syracuse has three losses to teams outside the top 100 right now and while the non-conference schedule was challenging, the only notable win over Indiana has diminished in value of late.  The ACC is having a rough season overall and hopes for a swan song campaign for Coach K’s final run may be the conference’s best path to having a team make a deep March run. There are a few teams trending upward down the stretch that could have a chance to climb into the field, however. Meaningful action with the season on the line could provide good experience to propel one of those teams to be tournament-ready, hoping to deliver an upset or two from a #9-#10 seed line where several ACC teams currently project to land. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/21/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 21, 2022

The Monday sports card features NHL and NCAAB action.The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Colorado visits Boston at 1:05 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite with the total set at 6 (all odds from DraftKings). Carolina plays at Philadelphia at 3:05 PM ET as a -205 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Calgary is at home against Winnipeg at 4:05 PM ET as a -220 money line favorite with a total of 6. Toronto travels to Montreal at 7:05 PM ET as a -350 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Vancouver plays at Seattle at 10:05 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Monday college basketball card has seven games on national television. Ohio State hosts Indiana on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Buckeyes had their two-game winning streak end in a 75-62 upset loss to Iowa as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Their record fell to 16-7 with the setback. The Hoosiers are on a four-game losing streak after their 74-69 upset loss to Wisconsin as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Indiana’s record dropped to 16-9. Ohio State is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5.Coppin State visits Howard on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Eagles are on a four-game losing streak after an 89-59 loss to Norfolk State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Coppin State has a 5-20 record. The Bison are on a six-game winning streak after a 68-66 victory against Morgan State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Howard improved their record to 14-10. North Carolina plays at home against Louisville on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Tar Heels won their third game in their last four with their 65-57 upset win against Virginia Tech as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. They raised their record to 19-8 with the victory. The Cardinals ended a seven-game losing streak with a 70-61 upset win against Clemson as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Louisville has a 12-14 record. North Carolina is a 10-point favorite with a total of 146. Maryland is at home against Penn State on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Terrapins ended a five-game losing streak with a 90-74 victory at Nebraska as a 2-point favorite on Friday. They improved their record to 12-14. The Nittany Lions are on a two-game winning streak with a 67-46 victory as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Penn State has an 11-12 record. Maryland is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 129.5. Baylor travels to Oklahoma State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Bears won their third game in their last four with a 72-62 victory against TCU as an 11-point favorite on Saturday. They have a 22-5 record. The Cowboys won their second game in their last three with an 82-79 victory against Kansas State as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma State evened their record at 13-13 with the win. Baylor is a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 139.UCLA hosts Arizona State on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Bruins won their second game in their last three with a 76-50 victory against Washington as a 16.5-point favorite on Saturday. They raised their record to 19-5 with the win. The Sun Devils won their third straight game with a 73-53 victory against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Arizona State improved their record to 10-15 with the win. UCLA is a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 133.Alabama State is at Bethune Cookman on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Hornets dropped their fourth straight game in an 86-83 loss at Florida A&M as a 5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama State has a 7-20 record. The Wildcats lost their second-straight game in a 62-60 loss to Alabama A&M as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Bethune Cookman has a 7-19 record. 

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