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NHL Hockey: Montreal Canadiens vs. Winnipeg Jets Game 2 Preview, Odds and Prediction - 06/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jun 04, 2021

NHL Friday NBC Sports Network Preview: Montreal Canadiens at the Winnipeg Jets. Montreal looks to take a 2-0 lead in the North Division finals at Winnipeg on the USA Network at 7:38 PM ET. The Canadiens won the opening game of this series with a 5-3 victory on Wednesday. Jesperi Kotkaniemi opened the scoring 3:30 minutes into the first period. Eric Staal increased the lead just under two minutes later. The Jets’ Adam Lowry cut the lead in half on a shorthanded goal at the 11:52 mark of the first period. Nick Suzuki gave Montreal a 3-1 lead with a goal at 17:14 of the period. Things slowed down with neither side scoring in the second period. Derek Forbort pulled Winnipeg to within one goal at 9:22 of the third period. Brendan Gallagher extended the lead back to two goals for the Canadiens on a power-play goal less than two minutes later. Kyle Connor brought the Jets back to a 4-3 deficit after scoring with under two minutes to go. Jake Evans iced the game for Montreal with an empty netter with 57 seconds remaining. The end of the contest got marred by Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele’s brutal hit on Evans after converting the empty-netter. Scheifele got suspended for four games. Evans is out with a concussion as the bad blood between both teams rises.Carey Price stopped 27 of 30 shots in leading the Canadiens to the victory. He has a 2.33 goals-against-average and a .928 save percentage in eight postseason starts. Montreal has won four straight games after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to upset the Toronto Maple Leafs in the opening round of the playoffs. The Canadiens opened the season strong, but injuries and a COVID stoppage contributed to them limping into the postseason after a condensed makeup schedule. Head coach Claude Julien was fired in late February and got replaced by assistant Dominique Ducharme on an interim basis.Kotkaniemi leads the team with four goals in the playoffs. Staal has five assists and six points. Tyler Toffoli joins him for the co-lead on the team with six points coming from two goals and four assists. The loss on Wednesday was the Jets’ first loss in seven games after they swept Edmonton in four games in the opening round. Rust may have played a role in Game 1 as Winnipeg had not taken the ice since May 24th after outlasting the Oilers in triple overtime to end that series. Connor Hellebuyck had 28 saves on the 32 shots he faced in the losing effort. He has a 2.01 goals-against-average and a .937 save percentage in five postseason games. Connor leads the team with three goals in the playoffs. Blake Wheeler has two goals and three assists. Josh Morrissey has one goal and four assists. Neal Pionk also has four assists. The Jets will miss Scheifele’s contributions centering their top line. He scored 21 goals and assisted on 42 others in the regular season. He has two goals and three assists in the playoffs. Second-line forward Paul Stastny and top-pair defenseman Dylan Demelo are questionable for tonight. Montreal will be without Evans, who centers their fourth line. Topline left wing Tomas Tatar and fourth line right wing Arthur Lehkonen are questionable. Winnipeg expects 5000 vaccinated health care workers in attendance at their Bell MTS Place once again for Game 2.BookMaker lists the Jets as a -110 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5.Computer prediction:  Winnipeg Jets 3 Montreal Canadiens 1

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 06/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jun 04, 2021

The Friday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA has one remaining game in the opening round of the playoffs tonight. The Los Angeles Clippers visit Dallas on ESPN at 9:05 PM ET in Game 6 of their Western Conference quarterfinals series. The Mavericks took a 3-2 series lead with their 105-100 upset victory as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Clippers have lost five of their last seven games. The road team each of the first five games in this series. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from BetOnline). The NHL playoffs have two games on the docket. Winnipeg hosts Montreal on the USA Network at 7:38 PM ET in Game 2 of the North Division finals. The Canadiens have won four in a row after taking the opening game of this series with a 5-3 victory on Wednesday. The Jets had their six-game winning streak end with the loss. Winnipeg is a -117 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Colorado visits Vegas on the NBC Sports Network at 10:08 PM ET in Game 3 of the West Division finals. The Avalanche won their eleventh straight game with their 3-2 overtime victory in Game 2 on Wednesday. Mikko Rantanen scored the game-winner for the Aves at the 2:07 minute mark in overtime. Vegas has lost four of their last five games. Colorado is a -114 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Miami travels to Pittsburgh at 7:05 PM ET as a -114 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Philadelphia plays at home against Washington as a -108 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Cleveland visits Baltimore as a -116 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston plays at New York against the Yankees. Toronto is at home against Houston at 7:07 PM ET as a -121 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Tampa Bay visits Texas at 8:05 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox host Detroit at 8:10 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Minnesota travels to Kansas City. Arizona plays at Milwaukee. St. Louis is at home against Cincinnati at 8:15 PM ET as a -131 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Oakland is at Colorado at 8:40 PM ET as a -126 money line road favorite with a total of 10.5. Seattle travels to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play at San Francisco at 9:45 PM ET. The New York Mets visit San Diego at 10:10 PM ET. Two games are on the WNBA schedule. Atlanta visits Minnesota at 8 PM ET. Dallas plays at Seattle at 10 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, WNBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 06/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jun 03, 2021

The Thursday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA playoffs have two games on the slate. Portland hosts Denver on TNT at 8:05 PM ET. The Nuggets took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 147-140 victory at home in double overtime as a 2-point favorite on Thursday. The Trail Blazers have lost three of the last four games. Portland is a 5-point favorite, with the total set at 227.5 (all odds from BetOnline).The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against Phoenix in the nightcap on TNT at 10:35 PM ET. The Suns have won six of their last eight games after their 115-85 victory at home as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Lakers are on the brink of elimination, trailing 3-2 in this series. Los Angeles is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 207. Two games are on the NHL schedule. Boston visits the New York Islanders on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET. The Islanders evened this series at 1-1 with their 4-3 win in overtime on Monday. The Bruins had their five-game winning streak snapped with the loss. Boston is a -134 money line road favorite with a total of 5. Tampa Bay returns home to play Carolina on the USA Network at 8:08 PM ET. The Lighting took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 2-1 victory at Carolina on Tuesday. The Hurricanes have lost four of their last six games. Tampa Bay is a -152 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Twelve games are on the MLB docket. Atlanta hosts Washington at 12:20 PM ET as a -138 money line favorite with a total of 9. Tampa Bay visits New York to play the Yankees at 1:05 PM ET. Houston plays at home against Boston at 2:10 PM ET as a -136 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Colorado is at home against Texas at 3:10 PM ET as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 9.Miami travels to Pittsburgh at 7:05 PM ET. Arizona plays at Milwaukee at 7:40 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox host Detroit at 8:10 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Minnesota plays at Kansas City. St. Louis is at home against Cincinnati at 8:15 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against Seattle at 9:38 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. San Francisco plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 9:45 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. San Diego hosts the New York Mets at 10:10 PM ET as a -177 money line favorite with a total of 7.Three games are on the WNBA schedule. Las Vegas visits New York at 7 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 169.5. Phoenix plays at home against Chicago on the CBS Sports Network at 10 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 164. Los Angeles hosts Indiana as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 163.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, NHL and WNBA Previews and Odds - 06/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 02, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA playoffs have four games on the docket. Philadelphia hosts Washington on NBA-TV at 7:05 PM ET. The Wizards staved off elimination with their 122-114 upset win at home against the Sixers as an 8.5-point underdog on Monday. The 76ers have been on a five-game winning streak before the loss in Game 4 of this series. Philadelphia is a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 229.5 (all odds from BetOnline).New York plays Atlanta on TNT at 7:35 PM ET. The Knicks trail 3-1 in this series after dropping two in a row with their 113-96 loss at Atlanta as a 5-point underdog. The Hawks have won seven of their last eight games. New York is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 208. Utah is at home against Memphis on NBA-TV at 9:35 PM ET. The Jazz have won three straight to take a 3-1 lead in this series after their 120-113 victory as a 5.5-point favorite on Monday. Utah is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against Dallas on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Clippers evened this series at 2-2 with their 106-81 victory as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 217.Two games are on the NHL playoff schedule. Winnipeg hosts Montreal on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET in the opening game of the North Division finals series. The Jets swept the Edmonton Oilers after their 4-3 victory on May 24th. The Canadiens defeated Toronto in Game 7 of their opening-round series with Toronto with their 3-1 win on Monday. Winnipeg is a -132 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Colorado plays at home against Vegas on the NBC Sports Network at 10:08 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 1-0 lead in this series with their 7-1 victory in Game 1. The Golden Knights have lost three of their last four games. Colorado is a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Twelve games are on the MLB slate. Philadelphia visits Cincinnati at 12:35 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox plays at Cleveland at 1:10 PM ET as a -157 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. San Diego travels to Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -108 money line road favorite. The New York Mets are at Arizona at 3:40 PM ET as a -106 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees host Tampa Bay at 7:05 PM ET as a -127 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota visits Baltimore. Toronto is at home against Miami at 7:07 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 8. Washington travels to Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET. Houston hosts Boston at 8:10 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Texas visits Colorado at 8:40 PM ET as a -113 money line road favorite with the total at 10.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against St. Louis at 9:10 PM ET as a -222 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Oakland plays at Seattle at 10:10 PM ET as a -141 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Three games are on the WNBA schedule. Las Vegas visits New York at 7 PM ET. Chicago plays at Phoenix at 10 PM ET. Indiana plays at Los Angeles.

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CFB 2021: ACC Coastal Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

ACC Coastal Division:Duke – This team very likely to be at the very bottom of the standings. They allowed 56 points in each of 3 of last 4 games last season and the only one they did not they allowed 48 points! So defense was already a major concern and now they lost nearly their entire defensive line. Coach Cutcliffe having problems here and losing key players to transfers and exits from the program with the defensive line being a key example of that. Georgia Tech – Middle of the pack team at best and more likely to finish below the .500 level. Known for making too many penalties and mental mistakes. The Yellow Jackets are in year three under head coach Geoff Collins so the new offensive schemes he brought here should be better as they transitioned away from being an option team. However, the defense is still a question mark and, again, GT just has not been a team that executes well. Miami – The biggest problem for the Hurricanes is they play in the same conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd or 3rd in the conference and should challenge the Tar Heels for 1st in the Coastal Division. A key will be the health of senior QB D’Eriq King but he is progressing well in his recovery from an ACL injury. Can the defensive patchwork that head coach Manny Diaz has planned hold up? This team got tripped up often on the defensive side of the ball last season and they must be better there. They are respectable in the secondary but struggle to stop the run. Will Diaz calling the shots help the defense turn around?North Carolina – The biggest problem for the Tar Heels is they play in the same conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd in the conference and 1st in the Coastal Division. Sam Howell at QB is a key for UNC. Defensively, based on key experience returning, the Tar Heels are expected to improve. They have added size to the defensive line in recent recruiting classes and those guys are now ready to contribute. Their schedule avoids Clemson in the regular season as well. Pittsburgh – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. Have talented QB in Pickett but the run game not able to do enough to take the pressure off of him. The defense lost some key guys so could be a regression year on that side of the ball. Considering those factors, this is again a bit of an unpredictable team. If they can get the run game going and, in turn, get Pickett more of chance to succeed through the passing game, we should see some good opportunities for overs with this team because the defense could take a step down this season. Virginia – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. Too many question marks in my opinion. Also a very tough schedule with some road games that appear very tough to win. The question marks include at wide receiver on offense and then middle linebacker and defensive line on the other side of the ball. Unless those areas surprise, the Cavaliers will not surprise either! Virginia Tech –The Hokies should challenge both the Tar Heels and Hurricanes for playing 2nd fiddle to Clemson as that team is in a class of its own but the Hokies should be a contender in the Coastal Division. Injuries will be key as to how this season goes for Virginia Tech because they have solid talent in terms of starters but just do not have much depth. This will be something to watch with the Hokies and plus I just do not trust their defense. They allowed big points in too many games last season so I will be looking for overs with this team if the offense clicks. They do have some solid talent at the skill positions on offense but can they develop some of the new starters? Watch for early season signs of whether this team jells or not. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 06/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the WNBA.The NBA playoffs have three games on the docket. Brooklyn hosts Boston in the opening game of a TNT doubleheader at 7:35 PM ET. The Nets took a 3-1 lead in this series with their 141-126 victory at Boston as an 8.5-point road favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn is a -12.5 point favorite, with the total set at 231.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Denver plays at home against Portland on NBA-TV at 9:05 PM ET. The Trail Blazers evened this series at 2-2 with their 115-95 victory at home against the Nuggets as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Denver is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.Phoenix is at home against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second game on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Suns evened this series at 2-2 with their 100-92 upset victory in Los Angeles as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix is a 5-point favorite with a total of 207. One game is on the NHL playoff schedule. Carolina hosts Tampa Bay in the second game of their Central Division finals series on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET. The Lightning defeated the Hurricanes by a 2-1 score on Sunday. Carolina is a -111 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Cleveland plays at home against the Chicago White Sox on FS1 at 6:10 PM ET as a -137 money line favorite with a total of 7. Minnesota visits Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Tampa Bay travels to New York to play the Yankees as a -119 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Toronto hosts Miami at 7:07 PM ET as a -152 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Philadelphia plays at Cincinnati at 7:10 PM ET with both teams priced at -105 with the total at 7.5. Atlanta is at home against Washington at 7:20 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Milwaukee plays at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -156 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.San Diego travels to Detroit at 8:05 PM ET as a -113 money line road favorite. Houston is at home against Boston at 8:10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Kansas City plays at home against Pittsburgh as a -176 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Colorado hosts Texas at 8:40 PM ET as a -111 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The New York Mets visits Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -117 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Francisco plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 9:45 PM ET as a -163 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland is at Seattle at 10:10 PM ET as a -157 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers host St. Louis as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.Four games are on the WNBA schedule. Connecticut plays at home against Las Vegas at 7 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 160.5. Los Angeles travels to Dallas at 8 PM ET. Phoenix visits Chicago on ESPN2 at 8:30 PM ET. Indiana is at Seattle on ESPN2 at 10:30 PM ET. 

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NHL Hockey: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 2 Preview, Odds and Prediction - 06/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 01, 2021

NHL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Preview: Tampa Bay Lightning at the Carolina Hurricanes.Tampa Bay looks to take a 2-0 lead in the Central Division finals series after defeating Carolina by a 2-1 score in the opener on Sunday. The puck drops on the NBC Sports Network at 7:38 PM ET.Brayden Point began the scoring in the second period when he scored on a power play at the 8:15 minute mark to give the Lightning the lead. Jake Bean evened the score 1:41 minutes into the third period on a power play for the Hurricanes. Barclay Goodrow scored the eventual game-winner for Tampa Bay just under 11 minutes later at the 12:39 mark. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 37 of the 38 shots he faced to frustrate Carolina on their home ice. The Vezina Trophy finalist has a 5-2 record this postseason with a 2.41 goals-against-average and a .936 save percentage. Alex Nedeljkovic made 28 saves, but he drew scrutiny for the soft goal he allowed in the third period on the Goodrow effort. The rookie is 4-3 in the playoffs, with a 2.19 goals-against-average and a .923 save percentage. Head coach Rod Brind’Amour gave him the nod as the team’s starting goaltender over veterans Petr Mrazek and James Reimer after his regular season, posting a 15-5-3 record and a 1.90 goals-against-average and a .932 save percentage in 23 games. The Lightning advanced to the Central Division finals after defeating Florida in the opening round in six games. Tampa Bay is converting on 39.1% of their power plays this postseason after scoring one of their three chances in Game 1. The Lightning converted on eight of their 20 power-play chances against the Panthers. Tampa Bay has been energized by the return of forward Nikita Kucherov, who missed the entire regular season due to a hip injury. He leads the team with 12 points in the postseason coming from three goals and nine assists. Defenseman Victor Hedman has added nine assists. Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos have both contributed eight points. The Hurricanes earned the top seed in the Central Division with 80 points, the third-highest amount in the NHL during the regular season. They needed seven games to get past Nashville in the first round of the playoffs. After posting the second-best power-play unit in the regular season with a conversion rate of 25.6%, Carolina was successful in 20.2% of their opportunities with the man advantage against the Predators. The Hurricanes converted once on the four power-play chances they had on Sunday. Sebastian Aho leads the team in the playoffs with five goals and seven points. Martin Necas has two goals and three assists. Eric Staal has added four goals and an assist. Carolina right-wing Nino Niederreiter is dealing with an upper-body injury that Brind’Amour has said makes him “very, very doubtful” to play in this series. Niederreiter scored 20 goals during the regular season on the Hurricanes’ second line. Lightning defenseman Erik Cernak left Game 1 midway during the second period after getting sandwiched by two Hurricane players. He is listed as questionable but expected to play. Fellow defenseman David Savard, a midseason pickup from Columbus, is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. These two teams split their eight regular-season meetings. BookMaker lists Carolina as a -113 money line favorite, with the total set at 5.5.Computer prediction:  Carolina Hurricanes 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 3

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Would the Toronto Maple Leafs Beat Montreal if Mike Babcock Was Still their Head Coach?

by Team Del Genio

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Toronto Maple Leafs failed to win a playoff series for the 18th straight season tonight after losing to Montreal, 3-1, in their North Division Game 7. The loss was the final nail in the coffin that will be considered an epic collapse by Toronto who seemed in control of this series with a 3-1 lead. The Maple Leafs finished in first place in the North Division with 77 points, 18 points ahead of the Canadiens. They are priced as a money line favorite at -195 at BetOnline to win Game 7.Auston Matthews registered an assist tonight, but he ended the series with just one goal and four assists. Matthews led the NHL with 41 goals in 52 games during the regular season. He centered the top line alongside right wing Mitch Marner who had 20 goals and 47 assists in 55 regular-season games. Yet Marner managed only four assists in this seven games series. When the autopsy of what happened to the Maple Leafs in the postseason, it will start with why the productivity of Matthews and Marner declined. Mike Babcock was fired as the Toronto head coach in November of 2019 after a 9-10-4 start to the season. One of the biggest criticisms of Babcock was that he was not giving his stars enough ice time. In the 2018-19 season, the last full regular season under Babcock, Matthews averaged only 18:33 minutes per game. Marner averaged 21:33 minutes per game during that regular season. When general manager Kyle Dubas promoted Sheldon Keefe from the team’s top minor league team to replace Babcock, one of the directives was to get more ice time for Matthews and Marner.Matthews saw his ice time rise to 22:27 minutes per game after the all-star break after averaging 20:20 minutes before that. These numbers are a bit muddy because the pre-all-star break numbers include both Babcock and Keefe-coached games and the second half of the season was shortened because of COVID. Yet the increased ice time under Keefe is notable. Marner saw his ice time rise to 24:39 minutes after the all-star break in 2019-20 after averaging 22:32 before that. This season, Matthews averaged 21:33 minutes per game in the regular season. His ice time increased to 23:44 minutes per game in the playoffs. Marner averaged 22:26 minutes per game in the regular season while seeing that ice time increase to 24:52 in the playoffs. Could the decline in Matthews and Marner’s production be a product of them being tired? Matthews and Marner’s playoff production under Keefe last season left much to be desired. In their upset loss to Columbus in the qualifier for the NHL playoffs in the bubble hosted at their Scotiabank Arena last year, Matthews scored two goals and had four assists in five games. Those are decent numbers. Yet in the 2019 postseason under Babcock, Matthews scored five goals with an assist in their seven-game series with a Boston Bruins team that reached the Stanley Cup finals. Marner did not score in last year’s postseason under Keefe while assisting on four goals. Yet in the 2019 playoffs under Babcock against tougher competition, Keefe scored two goals and added another two assists. Could it be that Babcock’s strategy all along was to keep his stars’ legs fresh for when it mattered most in the playoffs? The production was certainly better. But what does Babcock know? After all, he has won only one Stanley Cup title with Detroit in 2008. He has only coached three teams to the Stanley Cup finals (Anaheim Mighty Ducks in 2003, Detroit in 2008 and 2009). Babcock is the only head coach to take two different teams to a Game 7 in a Stanley Cup final. Maybe he does know something about preparing for a deep playoff run?On the other hand, Sheldon Keefe did lead the minor league Toronto Marlies to the Calder Cup in 2018. But Keefe has yet to lead a team in the NHL to a playoff series win despite being favored in the last two seasons.Dubas hired Keefe to move the team in a different direction. Dubas was elevated to the general manager of the Maple Leafs to replace Lou Lamoriello. Where is Lamoriello now? He was hired by the New York Islanders in 2018. The Islanders are playing the East Division finals against Boston after they upset Pittsburgh in the opening round of the playoffs. The Islanders played in the Eastern Conference finals last season. Draw your own conclusions.Good luck — TDG.

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Is It Time to Begin Fading the NBA Playoff Zig-Zag?

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, May 31, 2021

The Zig-Zag theory for handicapping the NBA playoffs has steadily gained in popularity over the last few years. The concept is appealing: bet on teams coming off a loss in the playoffs to cover the point spread. It is pretty easy to fill in the narrative to justify the strategy. Losing teams have more resolve to bounce back from a loss. Winning teams may have just a little less urgency to win again. And, at one point, teams coming off a playoff win in the series may become overvalued in the next game if the betting public becomes too enamored with the Recency Effect.But the point spread is the run — and the great equalizer. If the betting public begins to ignore the Recency Effect and begin banking on the Zig-Zag theory, the oddsmakers will adjust with worse lines on the team coming off a loss. Every half-point line moment matters as it decreases the win probability of that side covering the point spread. As more and more bettors employ the Zig-Zag approach, the value in the system will likely decline. I wonder if there will become a time where the betting value will become to fly the contrarian flag and bet against the zig-zag?The most important thing to consider when assessing past data is that it must be analyzed in relation to the point spread situation in question. Maybe a home favorite coming off a point spread loss by double-digits have covered the point spread in 28 of these last 32 situations — but if that home favorite is laying, say, 100 points, then they are not going to cover the point spread no matter who shiny the data mined angle is. Obviously, this example is exaggerated, but I do so to make this observation: there is a threshold as to when a past truth derived from empirical data will stop being a truth in the future given the changing expectations of the situation as demonstrated by the fluid point spread. Let’s look at how the Zig-Zag theory has done so far through four games in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Overall, teams coming off straight-up losses in the previous playoff game this season have then covered the point spread in 11 of the 24 games. Or, put another way, Zig-Zag is 11-13 ATS in Games Two, Three, and Four this postseason. Sample size is always a consideration, but zombie auto bet Zig-Zaggers have not made money in these playoffs. Let’s look at the game-by-game breakdowns. In Game Two, teams off a straight-up loss in Game One are 4-4 ATS. In Game Three, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Two are 3-5 ATS. In Game Four, teams off a straight-up loss in Game Three are 4-4 ATS. In general, I am highly skeptical of silver bullet evidence to inform a situation in which to invest. The fluidity of the market makes such evidence short-term, at best. My handicapping approach is to assess and then analyze a wealth of evidence utilizing several different methods and approaches. My Reports are long to communicate this investment. Zig-Zag is certainly something I look at. I find the theory carries more weight when it combines with other intangibles such as team trends that help to expose a personality of a team.I will continue to assess how the Zig-Zag theory is working as the NBA playoffs move forward. Sharp bettors should already be exerted caution when considering the system. Sometimes the best answer to a Zig is to just pass. The day may come sooner rather than later that the expectation of a Zag from the betting market may create value to keep on Zigging. Best of luck — Frank.

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CFB 2021: ACC Atlantic Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, May 31, 2021

ACC Atlantic Division:Boston College – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. This team strong offensively and has come a long way in the passing game. But their defense is still rebuilding in terms of schemes and personnel. Keep your eye on potential value with overs in their games. Clemson – Class of the ACC as per usual and a great shot at an undefeated regular season. Very tough opener against Georgia but if they can get past that it will be a great shot at perfection through November. Lost some great players of course but this program just at another level. Everyone knows this of course so will be hard to find betting value in their games. Florida State – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. The Seminoles are rebuilding talent level here because frequent coaching changes – last season was Norvell’s first – means that getting the right talent to match the schemes has been difficult. I expect the offense to be okay but the defense is definitely the heart of the rebuild so this is another team where we could see some potential value with overs in their games. Louisville – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly above. Coach Satterfield trying to get the right players for his schemes but this is still a work in process. It is a bad sign how this team regressed last season compared to his first season at the helm in 2019 but this team should bounce back a little. I like their defense a bit but do not trust this offense and this could be a team to keep an eye on for unders as a result. NC State – The biggest problem for the Wolfpack is they play in the same division of this conference as Clemson! This team likely to finish 2nd in the division. If they get strong play at the QB position this team can again score plenty of points. On defense they must get better, against the run in particular, though another concern I have here is that their schedule was rather easy last season. This year they have Clemson on their schedule. Syracuse – This team very likely to be at the very bottom of the standings. The Orange were so bad statistically on both sides of the ball and I just don’t see signs of any great improvement when you think about the competition level they face in the ACC. Also, the offensive line continues to be a concern for this program and so many keys to level of play begin in the trenches. Wake Forest – Middle of the pack team could finish at .500 or slightly below. This team has a solid offense but a questionable defense (again) so this could be another program to watch for plenty of overs in their games. The Demon Deacons have good depth and experience with this year’s team and could continuity with Clawson at the helm. It all adds up to improvement if they could just be better defensively. The trouble too is the latter part of the schedule is tough so even a solid performance early on could become derailed as the season goes on. 

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NHL Playoff Over/Under Trends After the 1st Round

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, May 31, 2021

One of the data items I track is Over/Under results per each NHL game. I have found that there are certain games in a playoff series that are more likely to go Over the Total, and other games in a series that are likely to finish Under the Total. Following these trends helps to inform my decisions as to when to invest in a Total — and when to avoid investing in a Total I was leaning towards. These are not rules; it would be foolish to just zombie auto-bet the Over just because Game Threes in a playoff series have tended to be higher-scoring affairs. Data mining empirical trends like that — and then relying on them — is a good way to lose a bankroll. Instead, these data provide just another piece of evidence to consider when evaluating the case to play an Over, an Under, or to pass on the Totals situation. Game Ones had three Overs and five Unders in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Game Twos had two Overs and six Unders in the first round.Game Threes had seven Overs and one under. Game Fours had four Overs and four Unders. Game Fives had two Overs and six Unders.Game Sixes had two Overs and three Unders. Game Sevens had one Over and one Under.These data offer a couple of surprises. The Game Two and Game Three numbers are of note. The sample sizes are small, so there is not much to conclude from just the first round. But this information continues to fine-tune the data I have been collecting. And trends may change over time. A thing to keep in mind with all NHL data so far this season is that every number has been produced from divisional contests. There has to be a game played out-of-division. I am interested in if the exclusive divisional schedules would result in more Unders or more Overs given the heightened familiarity between the teams. In the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, there were 21 Overs and 24 Unders. Let’s break that data down by division.North Division: four Overs, seven Unders. East Division: four Overs, seven Unders. Central Division: seven Overs, five Unders. West Division: six Overs, five Unders.I will keep looking at these trends in the second round of the playoffs. Assessing this data is just another tool in the toolbox.Best of luck — Frank.

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It’s the Year of the Pitcher. Does that Mean to Play More Unders?

by Team Del Genio

Monday, May 31, 2021

Major League Baseball has already seen six no-hitters this season, and that does not even count Madison Bumgarner’s no-hitter in a seven-inning doubleheader game which MLB did not officially count as no-no since the game did not go nine innings. The MLB record for no-hitters in a season in the modern era is seven, which has previously occurred four times.Pitching numbers are up, and hitting numbers are down so far this season as we take a look at some data on Memorial Day. Entering the day, the across-the-league Earned Runs Average sits at 4.02. That is the league-wide ERA since 2015. Strike-out rates continue to rise as well. Pitchers are striking out 24% of the batters they face (as of 5/20). Pitchers struck out 23.1% of the batters they faced in 2019, and they struck out 23.4% of opposing hitters in 2020.The Year of the Pitcher is demonstrated in declining hitting statistics as well. The league-wide MLB batting average after Sunday (5/30 is .236. That is the lowest number since 1968, the most recent Year of the Pitcher. MLB lowered the height of the pitching mound after the dominance pitchers enjoyed over hitters that year. Teams are scoring 4.33 runs per game this season. That average is a decline from the 4.65 runs per game mark in 2020. In 2019, teams averaged 4.83 runs per game, so the decline in scoring is part of some larger trends. What is happening? Several reasons help explain these trends. Velocity rates from pitchers continue to rise. Starting pitchers and relievers are being asked to make fewer pitchers per appearance but to throw harder when they do. Spin rates are on the rise as well as analytics departments influence their teams to rely focus on this intangible. The rise of defensive shifts has made things even more difficult for hitters to generate base hits. With pitchers throwing more heat, batters are being instructed to attempt to hit more home runs to take advantage of the acceleration produced from the batted ball. Yet home run rates are down this season after a steady recent rise in that number. 1.2 homers are being hit per 9 innings this season, the fifth-highest mark of all-time. But there was an average of 1.34 home runs and 1.40 home runs hit per 9 innings in the previous two seasons. Changes to the baseball this season have played a role. The ball is slightly lighter after new production standards. The new ball is easier to throw but does not travel as far off the bat given the lighter mass. Given all this, should bettors be investing in more unders? The numbers do not bear this out. The under is 382-374-25 after Sunday’s games (as measured by VSIN). The oddsmakers appear to be ahead of the game when it comes to adjusting their numbers. There may be value in betting the over as the season moves on. Warmer weather tends to favor the hitter with the ball carrying farther in the warmer air.Good luck - TDG.

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