Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 09/02/2021

Thursday, Sep 02, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action NCAA-F, MLB, and the WNBA. Six games are on the NCAA-F card. Rutgers hosts Temple at 6:30 PM ET. The Scarlet Knights are a 14.5-point favorite with the total set at 52 at 5Dimes. Central Florida plays at home against Boise State on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Knights are a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 68 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two games begin at 7:30 PM ET. North Carolina State is at home against South Florida as a 19-point favorite with a total of 59. Appalachian State hosts East Carolina on ESPNU as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 55.5.Two games conclude the NCAA-F slate at 8 PM ET. Ohio State visits Minnesota on Fox as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 63.5. Tennessee plays at home against Bowling Green as a 35-point favorite with a total of 65.5.Eight games are on the MLB docket. Three games take place in the afternoon. Philadelphia plays at Washington at 1:05 PM ET after their game on Tuesday was postponed. The starting pitchers have yet to be named for either team. Oakland plays at Detroit at 1:10 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. Sean Manaea pitches for the A’s against Matt Manning of the Tigers. Oakland is a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. San Francisco is at home against Milwaukee at 3:45 PM ET in the fourth game of their four-game series. The Giants pitch Logan Webb against the Brewers’ Eric Lauer. San Francisco is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against Miami in the second game of their two-game series. Carlos Carrasco pitches for the Mets against Zach Thompson of the Marlins. New York is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Tampa Bay hosts Boston in the final game of their fourth game series. The Rays pitch Shane McClanahan against the Red Sox’s Eduardo Rodriguez. Tampa Bay is a -160 money line favorite with a total of 8. Pittsburgh travels to Chicago to play against the Cubs at 8:05 PM ET in Game 1 of their four-game weekend series. Mitch Keller pitches for the Pirates against Keegan Thompson of the Cubs. Cleveland is at Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Indians pitch Triston McKenzie against the Royals’ Mike Minor. Cleveland is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta visits Colorado at 8:40 PM ET in the opener of their four-game series. Touki Toussaint pitches for the Braves against Chi Chi Gonzalez of the Rockies. Four games take place in the WNBA. Two games begin at 8 PM ET. Atlanta visits Dallas. Los Angeles plays at Minnesota. The two other games start at 10 PM ET. Chicago is at Las Vegas. New York travels to Seattle.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 09/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 01, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features 15 games in MLB. The Miami Marlins/New York Mets game has been postponed because of expected rainstorms. Four games begin in the afternoon. St. Louis plays at Cincinnati in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader at 1:10 PM ET after their game on Tuesday was rained out. Miles Mikolas pitches for the Cardinals against Wade Miley of the Reds. Colorado plays at Texas in the final game of their three-game series at 2:05 PM ET. The Rockies pitch Kyle Freeland against the Rangers’ Kohei Arihara. Colorado is a -135 money line road favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). San Diego is at Arizona at 3:40 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres against Luke Weaver of the Diamondbacks. San Diego is a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston completes their three-game series at Seattle at 4:10 PM ET. The Astros pitch Jake Odorizzi against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. Houston is a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The second game of the St. Louis/Cincinnati doubleheader is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET. J.A. Happ pitches for the Cardinals against Wade Miley of the Reds. Philadelphia plays at Washington at 7:05 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Phillies pitch Aaron Nola against the Nationals’ Paolo Espino. Philadelphia is a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two games begin at 7:07 PM ET. Toronto is at home against Baltimore in the third game of their three-game series. Steven Matz pitches for the Blue Jays against Matt Harvey of the Orioles. Toronto is a -275 money line favorite with a total of 10. The New York Yankees play at the Los Angeles Angels in the final game of their three-game series. The Yankees pitch Gerrit Cole against the Angels’ Packy Naughton. New York is a -280 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. Oakland plays at Detroit in the second game of their three-game series. James Kaprielian pitches for the A’s against Wily Peralta of the Tigers. Oakland is a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Boston is at Tampa Bay in the third game of the four-game series. The Red Sox pitch Chris Sale against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen. Boston is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against the Chicago Cubs in the second game of their two-game series. Joe Ryan pitches for the Twins against Justin Steele of the Cubs. Minnesota is a -200 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Pittsburgh in the final game of their two-game series. The White Sox pitch Carlos Rodon against the Pirates Mitch Keller. Chicago is a -335 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Kansas City is at home against Cleveland in Game 2 of their three-game series. Jackson Kowar pitches for the Royals against Logan Allen of the Indians. Kansas City is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 9. San Francisco plays at home against Milwaukee at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants pitch Kevin Gausman against the Brewers Brett Anderson. San Francisco is a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Atlanta at 10:10 PM ET. Max Scherzer pitches for the Dodgers against the Braves’ Max Fried. Los Angeles is a -195 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

Handicapping College Football After a Season Played During a Pandemic

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

After a 2020-21 college football season played without fans, the new ’21-22 season appears to return to looking like the game we observed in 2019-20. COVID is still here, and positive tests threaten to wreak havoc once again with the eligibility of players on game day (even if vaccinated). Yet fans will be back in stands, and each of the 130 teams representing the FBS appears poised to play full schedules. But normalcy has not yet returned for those of us who handicap college football games. After an extremely unusual college football season last year, those games remain the most recent relevant data points to use when assessing the early games for this season. Team Del Genio is a collection of handicappers that worked with and who were influenced by former oddsmaker turned sports handicapper Lenny Del Genio. We hope we analyze these early college football games the way he would, from the perspective of someone thinking about how the point spread and over/under lines were decided. Three principles will guide our early thinking.(1) Last Year’s Sample Sizes were Low. Most FBS teams play at least twelve games each season. Many Pac-12 teams played only four times. Many Big Ten teams did not play more than seven times. Non-conference schedules were abandoned. For many of these teams, there is just not much to gather from playing a third to a half of a typical season. With opt-outs and teams declining bowl games, the stakes changed for many programs. The lack of games between conferences makes the data regarding relative conference strength limited. Handicappers and gamblers making strong conclusions from last year’s results do so at their own risk.(2) Returning Starters/Production is Less Important. Perhaps this has been an overrated factor when handicapping early-season games. A team returning all five starters from an offensive line that was not very good may not be all that advantageous. Talent is probably more important than experience and chemistry. Yet with the NCAA granting all players an extra year of eligibility if they played last year, every FBS team is returning a high number of starters from last year. Returning experience is simply not as important this season since it is an area most programs have benefiting them.(3) More Than Ever, Coaching Matters. After a year impacted by COVID that precluded practice time and coaching opportunities in the spring and the fall, every FBS program got in spring and fall practice sessions. The surprises relative to point spread expectations will probably come from the better-coached programs. Good luck - TDG.

Starting Pitcher Observations from August

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

The Team ended the month of August by winning their MLB National League East Total of the Month with the Philadelphia/Washington over on August 31st. The Phillies won the game, 12-6, as they scored at least seven runs for the fourth straight game. We concluded that they would continue swinging hot bats against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The left-hander entered the game with a 7.59 era and a 1.41 whip in eight starts since the all-star break. He has allowed at least four earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. His strikeout rate of 18.6% of the batters he has faced is the lowest mark in his career. Sure enough, Corbin allowed two home runs and six runs overall in his six innings of work in taking his thirteenth loss of the season. Corbin gave up nine hits and walked four batters. While he struck out four batters, that represented only 14.2% of the batters he faced. Washington has allowed 33 combined runs in their last three games. The Phillies’ Matt Moore struggled in this game as well. He has been rotating back and forth between the bullpen and starting rotation. He has a 2-4 record with a 6.12 era and a 1.55 whip on the season. Since the all-star break, Moore has a 6.82 era and a 1.45 whip in six starts and eight overall appearances. His walk rate of 10.2% of the batters he has faced is the highest since 2014. He walked five batters in this game in his 3 1/3 innings for a 23.8% walk rate. He was pulled after getting one out in the bottom of the third inning after allowing five runs. Our 25* MLB Total of the Month on Monday, August 30th, was scratched when the San Francisco starting pitcher, Johnny Cueto, tested positive for COVID which forced the Giants to resort to a bullpen game. Much of the reasoning for the under in that game was the expected strong pitching performance from Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes. The Brewers won the game, 3-1, with the final score still finishing well below the number. Burnes pitched great by allowing only one run in six innings. He allowed only four hits and did not walk a batter. He struck out nine Giants. He entered that game with an 8-4 record with a 2.30 era and a 0.95 whip in twenty-two starts. The hard-throwing right-hander had a 1.67 era and a 0.85 whip in his four starts this month before that effort. Burnes had a 1.87 era and a 0.86 whip in his previous ten starts on the road. We lost our MLB ESPN Sunday Game of the Year on August 29th when the Yankees lost at Oakland, 3-1. We were surprised that New York did not generate more runs against the A’s starting pitcher Paul Blackburn. Our assessment of Yankees’ starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery was on the money. Montgomery allowed just one unearned run in his six innings where he gave up only six base hits and did not offer a free pass. The left-hander had a 5-5 record with a 3.69 era and 1.20 whip in twenty-three starts entering the game, yet that did not tell the full story. Since the beginning of June, Montgomery had a 2.98 era and a 1.16 whip with 43 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings before that start. His strong efforts were not restricted to Yankee Stadium either during this run. In his previous four starts on the road before pitching at the Coliseum on Sunday, Montgomery has a 0.87 era and a 1.11 whip. When pitching at night, Montgomery held a 2.84 era and 1.15 whip in fourteen starts before that effort.Good luck - TDG.

Handicapping the 2021 NFLx Preseason: Autopsy Report

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

We concluded a 7-4 mark in the NFLx preseason by winning out 25* NFLx Preseason Game of the Year on Sunday with the Cleveland Browns minus the points against Atlanta. NFL preseason football is beatable — but it requires using a different set of methods than handicapping the NFL in the regular season. We will begin the 2022 NFLx preseason on a 16 of 22 (73%) NFLx run and a longer-running 46 of 74 (62%) NFLx preseason mark. We won six of our seven highest-rated 25* NFLx preseason plays this year, furthering a 13 of 14 (93%) NFLx 25* preseason run going back to 2019 and a longer running 26 of 34 (76%) preseason mark with 25* plays. Being a little choosier while being patient has helped to make decisions as to when to invest in a preseason situation. Handicapping the preseason in the NFL (successfully) is not the same as it was five years ago. Back then, deciphering edges against the point spread mostly involved the qualitative assessment and comparison of both team’s rosters — especially at quarterback. Getting a book on the philosophy each head coach had regarding how they used preseason games has always been important as well — but Sean McVay’s commitment to not play any starters in the preseason established a school of thought that many of his peers have adopted. After no preseason last year because of the pandemic and the league’s shift to just three preseason games, a new dynamic has taken hold this year. It had been conventional wisdom for most head coaches to use the third preseason game as the dress rehearsal game where he has his starters get in their most minutes — and then the last preseason game is used exclusively to make the final roster decisions. Not playing starters in the final preseason game also gave them a week of rest before the regular season while protecting them from short-term injuries that could threaten their status for the start of the season. But with the NFL having next week off before the start of the regular season, head coaches face a dilemma: not playing their starters in this third preseason game could risk them being rusty. First and foremost, handicapping the preseason requires understanding what philosophical approach the respective head coaches are using for the preseason game. Head coaching team trends that are specific to the preseason can help, but the loss of the fourth preseason game makes the sample size thinner even for veteran NFL head coaches. Following beat reporters who can provide insight regarding how the head coach plans to use the game is helpful. Often this news does not break until the day of the game. Favorites were 23-22-2 ATS this preseason. Going back to include the preseason data from 2019, underdogs hold a narrow 54-47-5 ATS mark. The Under was 28-20 this preseason. After the Under was 35-27-1 in the 2019 preseason, the Under is now 63-47-1 in the last two preseasons. I started tracking ATS numbers for games that conclude a three-day joint practice session. Oftentimes, head coaches use the controlled scrimmage environment (where quarterbacks wear the red jersey that prohibits getting hit) to work on their more sophisticated plays and packages. Did that affect the results of the exhibition game? In 2019, dogs were 6-5 ATS in preseason games that concludes joint practices. The Under was 8-3 in those games. In 2021, dogs were 7-5 ATS, but the Over was 8-4. Overall, underdogs are 13-10 ATS in preseason games that conclude joint practices the last two seasons. The Under is 12-11 in those situations the last two seasons. While the sample size remains small, it appears there is no angle to be gleaned from those joint practice situations. Duly noted for 2022! Best of luck — Frank.

The Lost and Last Days of Scott Frost at Nebraska

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

Nebraska is (most likely) going to have a new coach for their fabled college football team next season. The writing may have been written on the wall earlier this month when the head coach Scott Frost was placed under investigation for the improper use of consultants and analysts during games and practices. The NCAA investigation may extend to include possible off-campus workouts and practices that Frost organized despite guidelines that prohibited those activities during the early stages of the COVID pandemic. While Frost is a Nebraska alumnus, so too is athletic director Trev Alberts who was hired for the position after Frost’s tenure had started — so he is not an Alberts hire. But if Alberts still had a chance to salvage things this season, the Cornhuskers’ 30-22 upset loss at Illinois as a 6-point favorite likely sealed his fate. It is not so much the upset loss that was infuriating (especially for backers like me) as it was the continued mental mistakes that have become endemic for this program under Frost. Nebraska surrendered a safety that opened the scoring. They then went on to dominate the first quarter — and Adrian Martinez’s inability to complete a potential touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver to take a 14-2 lead led to the Huskers settling for a field goal … which they missed. The Nebraska defense remained dominant — but when an interception on the Illini’s side of the field was nullified by a roughing-the-passer penalty. The momentum shifted, Illinois scored a touchdown on that drive — and they recovered a fumble at the Cornhuskers’ 41-yard line which they returned for a touchdown to seize a 16-9 halftime lead. The Illini scored two more touchdowns in the third quarter to take a 30-9 lead before the Huskers scored two touchdowns to make the final score look respectable. Nebraska won the yardage battle by a 392 to 326 margin — yet Frost’s team was not competitive on the scoreboard. If that performance did not seal Frost’s fate in the eyes of Albert after the game, the coach’s comments after the game probably did. Uttered Frost about the play of his offense: “About half of our game plan was out the window when they lined up how they did.”To paraphrase the football wisdom of Bugs Bunny: “What a maroon!”As if accidentally conceding that one’s offensive acumen does not include the ability to make adjustments (after a month of practice), admitting to being be owned by Illinois coach Bret Bielema in his first game back in the Big Ten along with his defensive coordinator Ryan Walters who he poached from Missouri is not going to go over well with Albert who is one of the most fabled “blackshirts” in the history of the Nebraska program. Frost’s tenure with the Cornhuskers has been a disaster. On the field, the team is now 12-21 with seven upsets losses in his fourth season. They are 9-22 in Big Ten play. Supposedly an offensive guru, Nebraska scored only 23.1 PPG last season which was the lowest mark for the football team this century. The terrible play of the special teams has been the most consistent aspect of the program under Frost. Two of his best players last year, quarterback Luke McCaffrey and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson, transferred away from the program in the offseason. Frost and his coaching staff are not developing NFL talent. And the recruiting has completely fallen off. 247 Sports rated the Huskers’ 2022 recruiting class as last in the Big Ten. Frost became a hot name in the college football ranks when he oversaw Central Florida’s 13-0 season in 2017-18. Frost took over that program the year prior after the Golden Knights bottomed out with an 0-12 record. That 2016-17 season for UCF was fluky in that they lost a bunch of talent from the prior year — and then they got hit hard with injuries, bad luck, upset losses, close losses, and a retiring head coach midseason. Frost came to Orlando from Oregon where he was the offensive coordinator. With George O’Leary’s recruits, he was handed a great situation -- which he took full advantage of. Yet in Frost’s five seasons as a head coach, that 2017-18 campaign at Central Florida was the only team he coached a team with a winning record. I think coaches should get some benefit of the doubt from last year’s results given the challenges of COVID. But with the early returns now in for Nebraska this season, the program is lost under Frost’s guidance. Best of luck — Frank.

2021 NFL: AFC West Division Preview

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

We wrap up our AFC division previews with the West, where the Kansas City Chiefs are once again favored to finish in top spot. Here's a quick look at what to expect from all four teams heading into the 2021 season.Odds to win (courtesy of BetOnline)Kansas City Chiefs -250Los Angeles Chargers +500Denver Broncos +525Las Vegas Raiders +1400Kansas City ChiefsThe Chiefs begin their quest for a second Lombardi Trophy in three years as they host another top AFC contender in the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. All of the usual suspects are back for Kansas City and if the preseason is any indication, the offense appears to already be rounding into midseason form as we turn the calendar page over to September. The sight of a healthy Patrick Mahomes under center is a scary sight for Chiefs opponents after he dealt with nagging injuries late last season. The offensive line gets a boost with the acquisitions of Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Kansas City's defense always seems to be overshadowed by the offense but that unit is well-positioned to excel once again in 2021. Of note is the recent arrest of Frank Clark. If he's forced to miss time that could somewhat diminish the Chiefs vaunted pass rush.Los Angeles Chargers Optimism is running rampant in Chargers camp as they look to take a big step forward in QB Justin Herbert's first full season at the helm. The defense proved to be Los Angeles' achilles heel last season, largely due to injuries. With that unit healthy the sky is the limit for this Chargers squad. Remember, the Chargers also lost do-it-all RB Austin Ekeler to injury early last season. He's arguably the focal point of the offense and if he can stay healthy this year, he'll certainly help Herbert continue his ascension to superstar status. The Chargers currently have three primetime games on the schedule and open the campaign with a trip across the country to face the Washington Football Team in an early window contest in the nation's capital. Denver BroncosTeddy Bridgewater has been named the Broncos starting quarterback to open the season. He won't take as many risks as Drew Lock and should be a better fit in the offense with a host of talented wide receivers to work with. Second-round draft pick RB Javonte Williams is likely to take over for veteran Melvin Gordon before long. Of course, defense has generally been the Broncos strong suit in recent years and that unit gets a major boost with the return of elite pass rusher Von Miller this season. He and Bradley Chubb are capable of disrupting even the most elite offenses. Denver gets a soft opening to the season with matchups against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets in Weeks 1 through 3 before the schedule toughens up with a date against the Ravens in Week 3.Las Vegas RaidersThere's just not a lot for the Raiders to hang their hat on entering the 2021 season with a lack of a real identity on either side of the football. You have to wonder how long it will be before head coach Jon Gruden is on the hot seat should the Raiders get off to another poor start. There are solid pieces in place on offense with RB Josh Jacobs, TE Darren Waller and WR Henry Ruggs all capable of turning in big seasons. It does seem that QB Derek Carr continues to hold the unit back in terms of its explosiveness. Defensively, the Raiders added a quality pass rusher in Yannick Ngakoue from the Ravens but their weakness remains in the secondary, where they gave up far too many big plays last season and don't figure to improve much in 2021. With the Ravens and Steelers on tap to open the season, an 0-2 start is likely in the cards.

MLB: Handicapping the Wild Card Races

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

Our monthly look at Major League Baseball will focus on the respective Wild Card races in the American and National Leagues. Over the course of the final month of the regular season, this figures to be where all the intrigue is.In the AL, it’s safe to say current division leaders Tampa Bay, Chicago & Houston will be involved in the postseason. All three have near 100 percent odds of making the playoffs at this point. Honestly, I’d be shocked if any team out of the trio failed to win its division.The Wild Card race is pretty wide open though with five teams battling for the two spots. From the East, you’ve got the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays. From the West, the A’s and Mariners are in contention. There will not be a second team from the Central in this postseason.Those of you that have read any of my previous articles, or followed my picks throughout the year, know that I am completely dismissive of the Mariners’ chances. They are 70-62 but have a -61 run differential. Their expected number of wins, based on that run differential, is 59. They are the only team in baseball that has outperformed its win expectation by more than five games. The Mariners’ good fortune in games decided by one run and extra innings will run out. As of this writing, five of Seattle’s next eight games are against Houston. They lost Monday to the Astros … by one run. It feels as if we’ve already seen the “best” from the Yankees, Red Sox and A’s this season. The Yankees recently had a 13-game win streak snapped and have now lost three in a row. The Red Sox were 52-31 on July 2nd. They have gone just 23-27 since. The A’s, like the Yankees, had their own 13-game win streak this season. Theirs came all the way back in April. Take that away and they’ve been a .500 team the rest of the year.I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Toronto is the team to keep an eye on. Yes, they trail the three teams I just mentioned. But their run differential (+118) is vastly superior. (Note: I always harp on run differential because I think it’s a better measure of a team’s performance than won-loss record). Ten of the Blue Jays’ final 33 games are against the worst team in baseball, Baltimore, including the last series of the season (and that’s at home). The Jays also have seven games left against another last place team, Minnesota. My picks for the two Wild Card spots are the Blue Jays and Yankees. New York has the best record in games decided by two runs or fewer, so they have been a little lucky in 2021. Boston has scored the most runs of the three, but also allowed the most. Oakland really doesn’t do it for me.Over in the National League, things aren’t nearly as wide-open. The Giants, Dodgers and Brewers are all shoo-ins for the playoffs. Last month, we told you to take note of Atlanta and they’ve seized control of the East. Based on the run differentials in that division, you have to think the Braves are winning it for a fourth straight year.Whomever doesn’t win the West - the Giants or Dodgers - will obviously be the top Wild Card in the Senior Circuit. The second Wild Card comes down to the likes of the Reds, Padres, Cardinals and Phillies. Look, whoever it ends up being will be a massive ‘dog in the WC game and will probably lose. I don’t have particularly strong feelings on this race. It feels like it’s San Diego’s to lose. The fact they’ve lost 13 of their last 17 games but are only one-half game behind Cincinnati tells me that any righting of the ship should guarantee the spot. They have the best run differential of the four teams. The Cardinals and Phillies both have negative run differentials, so I’m skeptical of them. The Padres have a ton of games left vs. the Giants and Dodgers though and an interleague series with Houston. It’s also not good that 20 of the Padres’ final 32 games are on the road. They are 41-29 at home, but below .500 on the road. The Reds have nine games left vs. Pittsburgh plus seven more with the Cubs and Nationals. I think they will make the playoffs.

2021 NFL Preseason: A Point Spread Review

by Al McMordie

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

The 2021 NFL Preseason is in the rear view mirror. And it was the first season of a new 3-game format adopted by the league. This new format significantly changed how many teams approached the preseason games. And, as a result, many handicappers had to adjust, as the old "Week 3 Dress Rehearsal Game" went out the window. Instead, many teams just shelved their key starters for much, if not all of the preseason.Let's take a look at the final data.Home teams: 13-32-2 ATSRoad teams: 32-13-2 ATSFavorites: 24-22-2 ATSUnderdogs: 22-24-2 ATSOvers: 27-20-1 Unders: 20-27-1Teams off a win vs. an opponent not off a win: 14-9-1 ATS, including 12-3 ATS on the roadTeams off a loss vs. an opponent not off a loss: 9-14-1 ATS, including 3-11 ATS at homeTeams off back-to-back losses vs. an opponent not off back-to-back losses: 7-4 ATS, including 4-1 ATS on the roadTeams off back-to-back wins vs. an opponent not off back-to-back wins: 4-8-1 ATS, including 1-5-1 ATS at homeTeams that covered their previous game by 10+ points: 8-4-1 ATS, including 7-2 ATS on the roadTeams that failed to cover their previous game by 10+ points: 5-7-1 ATS, including 2-5 ATS at homeTeams that won their previous game by 10+ points: 7-4-1 ATS, including 6-2 ATS on the roadTeams that lost their previoius game by 10+ points: 5-6-1 ATS, including 2-4 ATS at homeClearly, the one thing which jumps out is the extremely poor play of the home teams. In seasons past, the NFL coaches perhaps tried to be more competitive in front of their home faithful. This Preseason, many of the coaches simply couldn't be bothered to reward their fans in attendance.But even though things changed, one thing remained the same: the Preseason dominance of the Baltimore Ravens. John Harbaugh's men stretched their Preseason win streak to 20 games. And they covered all three contests. They're now 17-2-1 ATS in the Preseason since 2016. And, perhaps most impressively, their only two ATS losses were by 1 points each! It did, however, come with a cost this year, as #1 RB, JK Dobbins, sustained a season-ending injury in a meaningless Week 3 game. So, it will be quite interesting to see whether Harbaugh changes his approach to these exhibition games in 2022.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 08/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Aug 31, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in MLB and the WNBA.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Cincinnati hosts St. Louis at 6:40 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Reds pitch Sonny Gray against the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas. Cincinnati is a -160 money line favorite, with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). Toronto is at home against Baltimore at 7:07 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. Hyun Jin-Ryu pitches for the Blue Jays against Keegan Akin of the Orioles. Toronto is a -350 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Washington plays at home against Philadelphia at 7:08 PM ET in the middle contest in their three-game series. Patrick Corbin pitchers for the Nationals against Matt Moore of the Phillies. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Three games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against Miami in the opener of their three-game series. The Mets pitch Trevor Williams against a Marlins’ starter that has yet to be named. New York is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Tampa Bay is at home against Boston in Game 2 of their four-game series. Ryan Yarbrough pitches for the Rays against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is a -135 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Oakland travels to Detroit for the opening game of their three-game series. The A’s pitch Cole Irvin against the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal. Oakland is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Colorado plays at Texas at 8:10 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Austin Gomber pitches for the Rockies against Jordan Lyles of the Rangers. Colorado is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Three games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota hosts the Chicago Cubs in the opener of their two-game series. The Twins pitch John Gant against the Cubs’ Zach Davies. Minnesota is a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Kansas City plays at home against Cleveland in the first game of their three-game series. Mike Minor pitches for the Royals against the Indians Zach Plesac. Kansas City is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Pittsburgh in Game 1 of their two-game series. The White Sox pitch Lucas Giolito against the Pirates’ Bryse Wilson. Chicago is a -335 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees play at Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Jameson Taillon pitches for the Yankees against Jaime Barria of the Angels. New York is a -129 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Diego is at Arizona at 9:40 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Padres pitch Blake Snell against the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen. San Diego is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Milwaukee plays at San Francisco on FS1 at 9:45 PM ET in the second game of their four-game series. Brandon Woodruff pitches for the Brewers against an undecided starting pitcher for the Giants. Milwaukee is a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Two games conclude the MLB card at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Atlanta in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Dodgers pitch Walker Buehler against the Braves’ Charlie Morton. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are at Seattle in the second game of their three-game series. Lance McCullers pitches for the Astros against the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi. Houston is a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 8.Four games are on the WNBA slate. Los Angeles visits Indiana at 7 PM ET. Connecticut plays at Washington at 7 PM ET. New York travels to Minnesota at 8 PM ET. Chicago is at Phoenix at 10 PM ET.

Ness Notes: NFL 2021: 18 Weeks / 17 Games

by Larry Ness

Monday, Aug 30, 2021

I'm a bit of a history buff, so bear with me. In its early years, the NFL did not have a set schedule, as teams played a different amount of games, competing against independent professional, college, or amateur teams. Then, from 1926 through 1946, NFL teams played as few as 11 games and as many 14 games per season. From 1947 through 1960, each NFL team played 12 games per season. The American Football League began play in 1960 and introduced a balanced schedule of 14 games per team over a 15-week season, in which each of the eight teams played each of the other teams twice, with one bye week. The NFL (under Pete Rozelle) quickly realized it had a serious competitor. The NFL quickly expanded in 1961, moving to a 14-game schedule, which remained in place through 1977.The league changed its schedule to include 16 regular season games in 1978 and through 1989, the 16 games were played over 16 weeks. The NFL introduced a bye week to the schedule in 1990, as each team played 16 regular season games over 17 weeks. Each team would have a weekend off during the regular season, on a rotating basis. Welcome to 2021, as the NFL will begin play on September 9, as teams will play 17 regular season games over 18 weeks. The just completed preseason was shortened to three weeks and I'll have a comment or two on that at the end of the article.With the 16-game schedule now clearly in our rearview mirror, let's take a quick trip back down memory lane. Which teams had the best and worst records during the 43-year, 16-game era? After some research, here's what I found. Of the 32 teams, I guess we shouldn't be too surprised to find that 16 teams had winning records, while 16 had losing records (a perfect 50-50 split). The top-5 records belong to the Pittsburgh Steelers (413-265-2, .609), the New England Patriots (410-270, .603), the Denver Broncos, (394-285-1, .580), the Green Bay Packers (381-293-6, .565) and the Baltimore Ravens (225-174-1, .564). Note: The Ravens joined the league in 1996. The bottom-5 records belong to the Detroit Lions (268-410-2, .396), the Cleveland Browns (251-379-2, .399), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (276-403-1, .407), the Arizona Cardinals (276-400-4, .409) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (177-239, .425). Note; The Browns sat out a three-year span from 1996-98 and the Jaguars didn't join the NFL until the 1995 season.However, when all is said and done, Super Bowl trophies count for more than regular-season wins. The Steelers won four Super Bowl rings in the 16-game era, which is tied for third-most with the NY Giants, who just barely own a winning record since 1978 at 340-338-2 (.501). The San Francisco 49ers (regular season record of 375-302-2, .553 ranks 7th-best) are second with five Super Bowl rings and naturally, the New England Patriots top the list with six Super Bowl rings. The Tampa Bay Bucs deserve a special 'shout-out,' as despite owning the 3rd-worst regular season record during the 16-game era (see above), the team has actually been able to win TWO Super Bowl rings following the 2002 and 2020 regular seasons.With the addition of one more regular season game, the NFL cut the 2021 preseason to three games for each team. The exceptions were Dallas and Pittsburgh, which played a fourth game by meeting in the Hall of Fame Game. Hurricane Ida forced the cancelation of last Saturday's Arizona/New Orleans contest, so the Cardinals and Saints played just two preseason contests. Here's a quick recap of NFLX 2021.The Baltimore Ravens extended their preseason winning streak to 20 consecutive victories by going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Ravens are one of seven unbeaten teams, joined by (in alphabetical order) the Bills, Broncos, Browns, Colts, Chiefs and Pats. The Bills joined the Ravens at 3-0 ATS and the Colts checked in at 2-0-1 ATS. You just may have noticed that all SEVEN unbeatens play in the AFC. The NFC saw EIGHT teams go winless, highlighted (lowlighted?) by the 0-3 SU and ATS Falcons and Packers. Are rumors true that Rodgers is trying to get back in touch with the people at Jeopardy? One final thought. The NFC East 'earned' the moniker of NFC 'Least' in 2020, when all four teams finished below .500 and the Washington Football Team won the division at 7-9. In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. Quoting Jackie Gleason (with respect to Wayne Gretzky, the original "Great One"), "And away we go!"As Arnold once famously said, "I'll be back" (on Sep 9).Good luck...Larry

2021 NFL: AFC South Division Preview

by Sean Murphy

Monday, Aug 30, 2021

We continue our series of NFL division previews with the AFC South. All four teams have questions entering the 2021 season. Here's a quick look at what to expect.Odds to win (courtesy of BetOnline)Tennessee Titans -120Indianapolis Colts +160Jacksonville Jaguars +600Houston Texans +2800Tennessee TitansThe Titans draw a bit of a tough hand, playing 12 consecutive weeks before reaching their bye in Week 13. Tennessee of course remains absolutely loaded on offense with QB Ryan Tannehill continuing his ascension and another big-time weapon to work with in WR Julio Jones. The future Hall-of-Famer is likely to play second fiddle to A.J. Brown and that should suit Jones just fine after he became used to blanket-coverage in Atlanta. Derrick Henry is in line for some regression off a 2,000 yard season but remains well-positioned to run wild behind an elite offensive line. I mentioned that every team in the division has questions to answer, and for the Titans it relates to their defense. They were involved in more shootouts than they would like a year ago but fortunately for them, they have the division's best offense by a longshot. Indianapolis ColtsThere's lots of potential in Indianapolis but the summer hasn't exactly gone as planned with Carson Wentz dealing with an injury, and now Covid protocols. Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger spent the month of August battling for the backup (and perhaps opening day) starting job. With Ehlinger going down to injury we're likely to see either Wentz (provided he can get out of Covid protocol) or Eason under center. Regardless, the focal point of the offense should be the ground attack led by sophomore starter Jonathan Taylor. With T.Y. Hilton going down to injury, the wide receiving corps is a big question mark. Can Michael Pittman Jr. rise to the occasion and enjoy a breakout campaign? Defensively, the Colts are set. They have the personnel in place to once again boast one of the league's most stout defenses. Indy won't hit the road until Week 3, when it faces Tennessee in a key division clash.Jacksonville JaguarsThe Jags finally have their quarterback in first overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence and the starting job is all his with Gardner Minshew being dealt to the Eagles in late August. While Lawrence didn't always impress in preseason action, he seemed to get better with each passing game and should have a wealth of weapons to work with in the Jags offense. That won't include rookie RB Travis Etienne as he suffered a season-ending injury during the preseason. James Robinson proved his is more than capable of shouldering the load last season, however. The aerial attack is well-positioned for success with the likes of D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault Jr. building a rapport with Lawrence. Unfortunately the Jags defense is still a year or two away from holding up its end of the bargain, or that's the hope anyway. Outside of the Titans, it's hard to say whether the Jags other AFC South rivals can take full advantage of their defensive flaws.Houston TexansThere's little reason for optimism in Houston. QB DeShaun Watson remains a big question mark as he waits for a trade while he deals with legal issues. Journeyman QB Tyrod Taylor is likely their best option under center. Oft-injured WR Will Fuller has moved on to Miami. RB David Johnson is a shell of his former self. The offensive cupboard is alarmingly bare. Meanwhile, the face of the defense for so many years, J.J. Watt, bolted for greener pastures in Arizona. This is a team that is desperately lacking an identity and most project it finishing dead last not only in the AFC South, but in the entire league. The Texans will alternate home and away games for the first six weeks of the season, beginning with a contest against the Jaguars in Week 1. Their lone primetime game comes in Week 3 at home against Carolina.

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