NFL Win Totals

by ASA, Inc.

Friday, May 26, 2023
Now that most of the dust has settled from free agency and the NFL Draft, we can take a look into which teams may be over or undervalued to hit their win totals for 2023. Last season some of the best win total bets came from the Chiefs, Vikings, Eagles and 49ers. In such a competitive league, it is hard to maintain excellence from year to year which makes it difficult to predict emerging teams as well as top teams that will fall off. 

Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 wins (-130)
The Eagles overperformed last season by almost everyone's expectations and could have easily won the Super Bowl if a couple plays had gone their way. With the best offensive line in football making Jalen Hurts look like an MVP candidate, 2023 will be a lot of the same for the Eagles. Philly has an average ranking strength of schedule with an easy start to the season. A reload on the defensive side of the ball from a stellar draft helps replace key pieces lost in free agency. Dominating the trenches is what the Eagles did last year, which will be the key piece to them raking up 11 or more wins.  

Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 wins (-110)
The AFC West was supposed to be loaded last season with talent that would dethrone Patrick Mahomes. Yet, the Chiefs stayed the course and won 14 games. In fact, they have won 12+ games every year since 2018. During those years, Kansas City always has a solid (not great) defense that hovers around rank 10-15 in points allowed per game. That, combined with the dynasty Mahomes and Reed have built on offense is a winning formula. Barring injury, we don't see a reason that the Chiefs won't reach 12 wins for the sixth straight year. 

Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 wins (-115)
Now that Tom Brady is out of the NFC South, the division has the worst QB talent in the NFL. Wide open for the taking, Atlanta made their run heavy offense even heavier by drafting Bijan Robinson. The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules in the league which makes for a very attainable task of getting 8 wins, just one more than last year. QB play should improve and with a clear identity, Atlanta is as likely as any to win the NFC South and secure a playoff berth. The Bucs made the playoffs last year while going 8-9, expect a similar record to be able to win this division again. 

Las Vegas Raiders Under 7.5 wins (-140) 
Oddsmakers are currently begging bettor’s to take the over on the Raiders, and this line may drop to 6.5 leading up to the season. Las Vegas made it to 6 wins in 2022 , managing to get even worse in many facets over the offseason. The ever injured Jimmy G provides instability at QB and Davante Adams has expressed his displeasure with management. Combo that with a bottom 10 defense and the second hardest SOS according to Sharp Football Analysis. The Raiders are in the running for the worst team in the NFL this coming season.    

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