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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, MLB and WNBA Previews and Odds - 09/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and WNBA.The fourth week in the NFL kicks off with Cincinnati hosting Jacksonville on the NFL Network at 8:20 PM ET. The Bengals improved their record to 2-1 with their 24-10 upset victory at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Jaguars fell to 0-3 on the year with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog last week. Cincinnati is a 7-point favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The fifth week of the college football season begins with Miami (FL) playing at home against Virginia on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Hurricanes raised their record to 2-2 with a 69-0 victory against Central Connecticut State as a 46.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cavaliers got upset last Friday, 37-17, at home to Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 63. Twelve games are on the MLB docket. St. Louis plays at home against Milwaukee at 1:15 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. J.A. Happ pitches for the Cardinals against Brett Anderson of the Brewers. St. Louis is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels play at Texas at 2:05 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Angels pitch Alex Cobb against the Rangers’ Glenn Otto. Los Angeles is a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs are at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Justin Steele pitches for the Cubs against Miguel Yajure of the Pirates. Chicago is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 8.Boston plays at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Red Sox pitch Nick Pivetta against the Orioles’  Alexander Wells. Boston is a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Toronto is at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. Robbie Ray pitches for the Blue Jays against Corey Kluber of the Yankees. Toronto is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games start at 7:10 PM ET. The New York Mets are at home against Miami in the fourth game of their four-game series. The Mets pitch Rich Hill against the Marlins Edward Cabrera. New York is a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Houston plays at home against Tampa Bay in Game 3 of their three-game series. Lance McCullers pitches for the Astros against Collin McHugh of the Rays. Houston is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Atlanta hosts Philadelphia at 7:20 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. The Braves pitch Ian Anderson against the Phillies’ Kyle Gibson. Atlanta is a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota plays at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Joe Ryan pitches for the Twins against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. Minnesota is a -195 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Cleveland plays at Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Indians pitch Shane Bieber against the Royals’ Angel Zerpa. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. San Francisco plays at home against Arizona at 9:45 PM ET in Game 3 of their three-game series. Scott Kazmir pitches for the Giants against Madison Bumgarner of the Diamondbacks. San Francisco is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Diego at 10:10 PM ET in the third game of their three-game series. The Dodgers pitch Tony Gonsolin against the Padres’ Vincent Velasquez. Los Angeles is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The semifinals continue in the WNBA on ESPN2 in the second games in both series. Connecticut plays at home against Chicago at 8 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at William Hill with a total of 156. Las Vegas hosts Phoenix at 10 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 170.

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NFL Review: 5 Undefeated Teams

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

NFL REVIEW: FIVE 3-0 TEAMS Five teams have made it to 3-0 in the NFL and only one of those teams were among the top dozen or so favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started. There is good reason to be skeptical of all five of those teams and being 3-0 this season is not quite as valuable as in past seasons with the move to a 17-game schedule. This is a breakdown of the chances to remain on a playoff path in the 2021-22 NFL season for the five 3-0 teams through Week 3.  3-0 DENVER BRONCOS (76-26 scoring) The Broncos are tied with the Bills for the top scoring differential in the NFL and with just 26 points allowed no defense has had a better start through three weeks. Denver had quite a buzz in the off-season as one of the few logical fits for Aaron Rodgers as the discussion of his possible departure from Green Bay was a common focus in the NFL media for several months. Once Rodgers reunited with the Packers, Denver was mostly a forgotten squad in a difficult AFC West with several high-profile teams.  Many did peg Denver for the playoffs however and a big factor in that logic was a rather favorable schedule which the Broncos have made good use of so far. The three wins for Denver have come against a trio of 0-3 teams and arguably the three worst teams in the NFL right now. Two of Denver’s opponents have featured rookie quarterbacks, but Denver has had convincing results in all three games while picking up two road wins as plenty of teams do not take care of business in favorable opportunities.  Teddy Bridgewater was picked up in the off-season after an uneven and mostly mediocre season for the Panthers in 2020 and he won the job over Drew Lock in August. Bridgewater has played exceptionally well through three weeks, featuring a top five QB Rating and QBR and still without an interception. He has taken seven sacks but has terrific numbers against the blitz and is averaging over 275 yards per game as he hasn’t simply been a game manager. Known for his accuracy, Bridgewater has completed nearly 77 percent of his passes and the Broncos have had adequate balance in the running game as well.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Denver has been favored in all three games as they have not done anything noteworthy yet and the schedule in October is very difficult as four of five foes made the playoffs last season while the other is their fellow 3-0 division leader Las Vegas.  The Broncos have six difficult AFC West games remaining while also drawing all four teams in a deep AFC North. Denver does have enough winnable games remaining on the schedule for this team to stay in the playoff race all season, but this squad has been hit hard with injuries of late. KJ Hamler joined Jerry Jeudy on injured reserve last week to take two receivers out of the equation while the offensive line and linebacker group also has been thinned out. Denver should not be dismissed completely due to the early schedule, but this is not a team that should be confused for a serious AFC championship contender.  3-0 CAROLINA PANTHERS (69-30 scoring) The Panthers may be the biggest surprise to be 3-0 as this was a 5-win team last season now in the second season under Matt Rhule and Sam Darnold’s NFL track record was about the worst of any regular starter in recent years. Darnold is producing in the passing game and has only one interception so far as the Panthers have won even with limited production on the ground. Christian McCaffrey has 201 rushing yards but left the Week 3 win over Houston and will be out for several weeks for a Panthers team that is gaining just 3.4 yards per rush.  In wins over New York and Houston the Panthers faced rookie quarterbacks including facing Davis Mills on a short week Thursday night game, meaning that two of three wins have been in the first NFL start for a pair of rookie quarterbacks. The win over New Orleans deserves praise however as it was a dominant defensive performance. It was perhaps a poor scheduling spot for the Saints, but the Panthers have been very impressive defensively through three weeks, leading the NFL in yards per play allowed while second in scoring defense.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Carolina’s schedule should remain rather favorable in the coming weeks. They will face three NFC East teams in October while also drawing Minnesota and Atlanta teams that have losing records this season after having losing records last season. Two games with Tampa Bay are not until late in the season as the Panthers have a good chance to produce a playoff caliber record this season. The final four weeks are a beast however with three of four games on the road playing at Buffalo, home vs. Tampa Bay, at New Orleans, and then at Tampa Bay. A collapse in the final month to lose out on a postseason spot might be the most likely scenario for this group depending on how important those late season games are for the expected contenders.  3-0 ARIZONA CARDINALS (103-65 scoring) Arizona has risen in stature significantly with a 3-0 start as the Week 1 performance against Tennessee was a dominant outing that may wind up as one of the more impressive game scores of the season. The Cardinals managed to survive the home opener against Minnesota as the Vikings missed a 37-yard-field goal at the end, while the team took care of business in Week 3 vs. Jacksonville. Arizona is tied with Tampa Bay for the most points scored in the NFL through three weeks and Kyler Murray is now the betting favorite for MVP.  The Cardinals were 8-8 last season as it is not a surprise that this team is already in the NFC mix as the off-season brought the team a few notable additions. Murray has already thrown for over 1,000 yards but he does have four interceptions and is not close to last season’s rushing pace with only 70 yards so far, although he has rushed for three touchdowns already. Arizona does have an excellent group of wide receivers and star players on both sides of the ball as this is a team that can stay in the spotlight. Arizona allowed 7.0 yards per play vs. Minnesota and last week the Cardinals allowed 361 yards against Jacksonville while falling behind 19-10 late in the third quarter vs. the winless Jaguars. A pick-six late in the fourth quarter helped keep Arizona in the win column in a game they were +3 in turnovers in, as this group hasn’t looked like a serious NFC contender outside of the opening week.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: Tennessee and Minnesota could wind up as quality wins for Arizona as the team deserves a great deal of credit, but it is hard to envision this team staying undefeated much longer. Difficult division games are up the next two weeks while games with Cleveland and Green Bay also lurk in October as this group is much more likely to be 4-4 by the end of the month than 8-0. Playoff hopes will hinge on winning games in the very difficult NFC West as the Cardinals might still wind up right near the cut, just like last season. 3-0 LOS ANGELES RAMS (95-62 scoring)  The Rams are the one team in this quintet that most expected to have a good chance to be 3-0 as one of the highest regarded teams in the NFC. The Rams are 3-0 through a difficult schedule facing three 2020 playoff teams including last week’s big win over Tampa Bay for the current notion of NFC supremacy. The opening week win over the Bears may not be that valuable while the Colts are 0-3 as those two teams could be headed for seasons of decline. The Bears moved the ball fairly well against the Rams while the Colts were in a position to win vs the Rams even while having to play a backup quarterback at the end of the game.  Overall there is a lot to like about the pairing of Matthew Stafford with the Rams so far as he has nine touchdowns and one interception and the top QBR in the league at this point. The Rams have allowed just over 20 points per game this season but the defense did allow a great deal of yardage last week and has rather average defensive numbers overall, even with Andy Dalton and Carson Wentz accounting for two thirds of the statistics. Last season’s elite defensive numbers were likely a bit overstated with a few scheduling breaks as this squad risks being overvalued.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: The Rams don’t look likely to go anywhere as a top NFC threat as while they could certainly take a loss in division games the next two weeks facing Arizona and Seattle, they also have upcoming games with the Giants, Lions, and Texans. The late season schedule is quite difficult however as this is a group that might hit the Week 11 bye week at around 8-2 but then could take several losses in the final seven. That closing stretch includes three division games plus games on the road vs. Green Bay and Baltimore in potential late-season conditions for the southern California squad. Things look good so far for the Rams, but this team should not be the favorite for the #1 seed in the NFC just yet.  3-0 LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (scoring 90-72) The Raiders have had a lot go right to reach 3-0 as both home wins have required overtime. It has been a quality schedule however beating Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, three winning teams in the AFC from last season and expected AFC playoff threats. Pittsburgh may be in a great decline however and Miami played with a backup quarterback as there are some potential reasons for caution with the start for Las Vegas.  The Raiders have continued to win with Josh Jacobs injured however and Derek Carr has the most passing yards in the NFL by a significant margin. While the Raiders have allowed decent scoring, they are actually a top 10 team in yards per play allowed and the suspect offensive line has played better than expected so far. Las Vegas is not allowing many big plays in the passing game and while the run defense has been poor on a per carry basis, the Raiders have pushed the scoring pace in most games to make the running game less important.  FUTURE OUTLOOK: The 3-0 start is certainly unexpected for the Raiders as it came through what looked like a rather difficult stretch of the schedule. The path before a Week 8 bye week to close October is reasonable as the Raiders should pick up a few more wins and ultimately the schedule is well-balanced as Las Vegas rarely has consecutive games against top teams outside of facing the Chiefs and Browns in back-to-back road games in December. The Raiders have likely boosted their season projection the most of these five 3-0 teams and Las Vegas should now be considered a very realistic playoff threat in the AFC even in a loaded AFC West.  3-0 teams have done quite well in Game #4 in the NFL historically, going 116-80 S/U and 101-90-5 ATS since 1980. Last season seven teams reached 3-0 and six of those teams made it to 4-0, going 6-1 S/U and 6-1 ATS in the fourth games. 3-0 teams fare best at home with an over 62 percent ATS rate historically though that edge has lessened since 2000. When 3-0 teams face 3-0 teams, the host has gone 12-4 S/U and 13-3 ATS since 1986 as the Rams may have a favorable opportunity this week to reach 4-0. 

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Ness Notes: CFB's 'October Morn'

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

OK, so Neil "Sweet Caroline" Diamond sang September Morn but it's MY column and I get to claim "literary license!" The AP poll (established in 1936) released its preseason poll on August 16 (AP began its preseason rankings in 1950) and naturally, Alabama was No. 1. Who could have guessed. Nick Saban has won SIX national championships over the last 12 seasons, including in 2020 when The Tide crushed Ohio State, 54-24. Alabama's No. 1 ranking was its EIGHTH preseason No. 1 all-time, tying Ohio St. However, both schools trail Oklahoma's 10 preseason No. 1 rankings. Just 11 schools in AP history have opened No. 1 and ended No. 1, the most recent being Alabama in 2017. Only TWO schools have gone through a season as the AP's No. 1 team wire-to-wire, Florida State in 1999 (rest in peace Bobby Bowdon) and USC in 2004 (Pete "I know nothing about violations" Carroll). More on Alabama. Alabama has opened 4-0 and has now won 18 straight games, the longest active winning streak. With its No. 1 ranking on September 26th, the Crimson Tide have now been ranked in 218 consecutive weekly AP polls, a streak that began back in 2008. However, the Alabama streak is only the second-longest streak in history, as Nebraska was ranked in a hard-to-believe 348 consecutive weekly AP polls from 1981-2002. Yes, the pollsters got it right with Alabama so far (Ole Miss may have something to say about that this Saturday) but things have NOT gone as planned for more than just a few preseason top-25 teams. Actually, that's a HUGE understatement.The Tide's dominance contrasts with the struggles of other ranked teams, as 25 have lost already this season, the most through four weeks in the AP poll era (since 1936). In fact, 12 teams that began the season in the top-25 are no longer ranked as October opens. Here's a list of preseason top-25 teams that were "nowhere to be found" in the most recent AP top-25 (as of Sep 26).Read 'em and Weep.No. 7 Iowa St, No. 10 North Carolina, No. 12 Wisconsin, 14 Miami-Fl, No. 15 USC, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Washington, No. 21 Texas, No. 23 ULL, No. 24 Utah and No. 25 Arizona St. Clemson, the only team to appear in each of the last six CFP, has fallen from No. 3 (preseason ranking) to No. 25, barely extending its streak of 107 consecutive weeks as a ranked team. The Tigers own the second-longest active streak (behind Alabama), although the Ohio State Buckeyes have been ranked in 150 consecutive weekly polls, if one doesn't count the polls last season in which Ohio State wasn't eligible. Remember, the Big Ten originally said it was going to cancel its 2020 season (due to COVID) before changing its mind in late October. Let's give Ohio St a Roger Maris asterisk.However, when Clemson fell from No. 9 to No. 25 after its loss this past Saturday at NC State, the Tigers run of 97 weeks inside the top-10 was snapped. Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 team but while the Sooners are 4-0 (12 straight wins going back to 2020), Oklahoma is 0-3 ATS against its three FBS opponents, Oklahoma eked out a 40-35 win over Tulane, a 23-16 win over Nebraska (on the 50th anniversary of The Game if the Century from 1971) and just this past Saturday, beat West Va 16-13 with a game-winning FG on the game's final play, Really, Oklahoma is ranked 6th???This weekend's schedule features four matchups between ranked opponents. No. 1 Alabama is home to No. 12 Ole Miss, No. 2 Georgia is home to No. 8 Arkansas, No. 7 Cincinnati is at No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 19 Oklahoma St is home to No. 21 Baylor. The remaining 17, top-25 teams are all in action, playing unranked opponents. I'm assuming if you are reading this, you may just be interested in some ATS numbers. There have been 12 matchups between ranked opponents so far, with the higher ranked team not faring well by going 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS. Will the higher ranked teams improve on their records as the season goes on? I guess we'll have to wait and see. Here's something that may surprise some but NOT regular readers of Ness Notes. Ranked opponents are 59-13 (.819) SU when playing an unranked opponent but are a MONEY-BURNING 26-43-3 (37.7%) ATS. Quoting Matt Damon from Good Will Hunting. "Do you like apples? I got her number. How do you like them apples?" Ranked teams have a L-O-N-G way to get back to the infamous 'Mendoza Line.' Check back next Wednesday for my recap of the NFL's first four weeksGood luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 09/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the MLB and the UEFA Champions League.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Colorado hosts Washington at 3:10 PM ET in the final game of their three-game series. The Rockies pitch Paul Lambert against the Nationals’ Paul Espino. Colorado is a -115 money line favorite with the total set at 12. Pittsburgh plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 6:35 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Roansy Contreras pitches for the Pirates against Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs. Pittsburgh is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston plays at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the Orioles’ Zac Lowther. Boston is a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The New York Yankees are at Toronto on ESPN at 7:07 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Jose Berrios of the Twins. New York is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets host Miami at 7:10 PM ET in the third game of their four-game series. The Mets pitch Taijuan Walker against the Marlins’ Elieser Hernandez. New York is a -170 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta plays at home against Philadelphia at 7:20 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Max Fried pitches for the Braves against the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. Atlanta is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Minnesota is at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Twins pitch Michael Pineda against the Tigers’ Casey Mize. Minnesota is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. St. Louis hosts Milwaukee at 7:45 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. Miles Mikolas pitches for the Cardinals against Adrian Houser of the Brewers. St. Louis is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Texas plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 8:05 PM ET in Game 2 of their three-game series. The Rangers pitch Taylor Hearn against the Angels’ Janson Junk. Texas is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. Three games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Houston hosts Tampa Bay in the second game of their three-game series. Luis Garcia pitches for the Astros against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen. Houston is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox plays at home against Cincinnati in the final game of their two-game series. The White Sox pitch Carlos Rodon against the Reds’ Sonny Gray. Chicago is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. Cleveland plays at Kansas City in the second game of their three-game series. Zac Plesac pitches for the Indians against Daniel Lynch of the Royals. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. San Francisco plays at home against Arizona at 9:45 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Giants pitch Alex Wood against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. San Francisco is a -280 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games begin at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Diego on ESPN in Game 2 of their three-game series. Max Scherzer pitches for the Dodgers against Ryan Weathers of the Padres. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland plays at Seattle in the second game of their three-game series. The A’s pitch Frankie Montas against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. Oakland is a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Matchday 2 in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Atalanta hosts the Young Boys as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.25. Zenit Petersburg plays at home against Malmo as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Six matches begin at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich is at home against Dynamo Kyiv as a -2.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 4. Barcelona plays at Benfica in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.75. Manchester United hosts Villarreal as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Sevilla travels to Wolfsburg in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.25. Salzburg is at home against Lille as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Chelsea travels to Juventus as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.25. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games.

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MLB: Examining The Likely Playoff Field

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021

With only one week left in the regular season, this will be my final monthly “check-in” (article) on 2021 Major League Baseball. I thought now would be an opportune time to take a special look at the teams we know will be competing in the playoffs. In the American League, it’s been pretty obvious for awhile now who would be claiming the respective pennants. You’ve got Tampa Bay (East), Chicago (Central) and Houston (West). Unless they lose the rest of their regular season games, Tampa Bay will set a new franchise record for regular season wins. They have already set a new record with 14 series sweeps this year. But before sweeping the Marlins this past weekend, they were actually below .500 in September. They are just 3-3 vs. the White Sox this season and 1-2 vs. the Astros, who they face this week. I think it’s worth mentioning the Rays dominated both the Orioles (18-1) and Interleague Play (15-5) this season. Other than that, they are “only” 11 games over .500 against everyone else. I bring all this up because I think this team is ripe to be upset in the LDS as the team that wins the AL Wild Card game is likely to be a division rival that is quite familiar with them. Now the Rays are tied for the most home wins (52) in all of MLB and - barring a complete collapse this week - they will have home field advantage in the AL portion of the playoffs. So that could be their saving grace. The key to their success at Tropicana Field is they only allow 3.2 runs per game there. Not to be dismissed is the fact they average a MLB-high 5.7 runs per game on the road. That’s needed as the number of runs they allow per game rises to 5.1 when away from home. No team has a higher percentage of Overs on the road than do the Rays. The Rays are 40-19 in day games and 19-4 as a favorite of -200 or more. Those situations will not arise much moving forward.Based on their 40-41 road record, you’d think it would be imperative for the AL Central Champion White Sox to finish with the second best record in the AL and thus have home field advantage in the LDS. But something interesting that I found is that the Sox have actually outscored their opponents by a fairly comfortable margin when on the road this season (4.7 to 4.1 per game). So there could be some value with this team on the road come playoff time. They are just 2-5 against the Astros, who they will likely face in the LDS. Entering Tuesday, the White Sox are 2.5 games back of the ‘Stros in the race to see who gets home field advantage in that series. As of press time, Houston has yet to officially clinch the AL West. But they do have the distinction of having the top overall run differential in the American League (+205). If I were a betting man (and I am!), then I’d make the Astros the favorites to represent the Junior Circuit in the World Series. Right now, Houston is the highest scoring team in all of baseball and their home/road split is a lot more consistent than the Rays, who are the second highest scoring team. The Astros have a better record in night games compared to the Rays and White Sox as well. As for who will get the two Wild Card spots in the AL, that’s going to come down to the wire. I’ll continue to cite Toronto’s run differential (+172) as proof they “deserve” to be in while also citing Seattle’s run differential (-52) as a reason they don’t deserve to make it.Now we turn to the National League. The teams with the two best records in all of baseball - the Giants and Dodgers - both reside in the NL West, so one of them is going to be forced into a one-game playoff, likely against a Cardinals team that is on the longest win streak MLB has seen in four years (16 straight entering Tuesday). What a scary proposition that is! For what it’s worth, I believe the Dodgers are the favorites to repeat as World Series Champs. Beating this team over the course of a five - or seven - game series is going to be very difficult. The Dodgers have been underdogs in only two regular season games! Now anything can happen in a one-game scenario, if they were to end up as a Wild Card. Like the Rays, the Dodgers have really beaten up on the bad teams on their schedule, going a combined 42-9 vs. the D’backs, Rockies, Pirates and Nationals. They are just 4-2 vs. Atlanta, 4-3 vs. St. Louis, 1-3 vs. Milwaukee and 9-10 vs the Giants.The Giants have been the most profitable team to bet on this year at +42.6 units. They have the most road wins with 53. It’s interesting they’ve been underdogs in 54 regular season games, a far cry from how linesmakers have viewed their rivals in LA. Against the four other likely NL playoff teams, the Giants are just 18-20 though. There is no doubt that San Francisco would be the underdog, even with home field advantage, in a potential LDS showdown with the Dodgers. I’d be looking to go with LA if that comes to fruition.Milwaukee has phenomenal starting pitching and could be the darkhorse in the Senior Circuit. It’s curious how much better the Brewers have been on the road (49-26) than at American Family Field (45-36). Unlike the White Sox road record, there’s really nothing misleading about the Brew Crew’s home mark. In fact, they are probably a little bit lucky to even be nine games over .500 at home considering they allow the same number of runs per game that they score themselves (4.3). They’ve allowed by far the fewest number of runs on the road in all of baseball.Atlanta also has a better record on the road than at home. Incredibly, that would be the case with four of the five likely playoff entrants in the NL. Now the Braves must first clinch the NL East, a race they can put to bed by taking out the second place Phillies this week in a three-game series. Given the respective run differentials, it’s clear to me that the Braves are the better of those two teams.St. Louis, despite its franchise-record win streak, will be a huge dog to either the Giants or Dodgers in the NL Wild Card Game. But, as I said earlier, anything can happen in a one-game scenario. They’ve been competitive with both of those teams this year. See you in October!

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NFL Week 4 Breakdown

by Will Rogers

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021

BEST GAME – Tampa Bay at New England (+5.5)Here’s today’s quiz: What is the only team that Tom Brady hasn’t beaten?A – The Patriots.That should all change by early evening next Sunday in Foxboro, where Brady and the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers figure to lay waste to a Patriots team that is in disarray and has shown no signs that it is much better, if at all, than last year’s 7-9 non-playoff group. The Bucs have a few questions to answer themselves after getting pushed around by the Rams, but they are clearly superior to NE at this point – and Brady should be fuming as he prepares for the Pats this week.The early line had TB favored by the always-awkward 5.5 total, but that could go higher when bettors around the country see clips on just how bad the Patriots played against New Orleans.Unless Brady gets ultra stubborn and hangs around for another decade or so, or switches teams again, this will be his final appearance in Gillette. It will no doubt be an agonizing week for Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft, who bet against TB12 once he got on the wrong side of 40.New England is hoping that rookie Mac Jones can develop into a reasonable facsimile of Brady the Game Manager when Brady was a pup in New England. Short passes, no turnovers, long clock-killing drives. Win 20-17 and move on. But that business model was at least temporarily blown to smitherines last Sunday by the Saints, who pressured Jones all day, induced three interceptions and sent the Patriots to 1-2.And now here comes Tom Brady to rub some salt into the wounds.WORST GAME – Detroit at Chicago (-6)Optimism in the Rust Belt is a rare commodity these days as the Lions and Bears are forced to dig themselves out of deep holes before the calendar even turns to October. In Chicago, Justin Fields may be questioning his career choice after the Browns bended, folded and mutilated him to the tune of 9 sacks. Fields completed just 6 of 20 passes for 68 yards. If there is any good news for the Bears it’s that they get two games against the Lions, who are an even hotter mess. Detroit is winless at 0-3, and with a 17th game on the schedule have a puncher’s shot at breaking their own record of 0-16, set in 2008.LARGEST SPREAD – Houston at Buffalo (-16.5)There’s talk that the Texans’ hard-line stance against QB DeShaun Watson might be softening a tad, but even Watson wouldn’t be able to do much against the Bills, who after two straight wins by a combined score of 88-21 look like they might have enough juice to give the Chiefs some problems in the playoffs. Sixteen and a half is a heavy carry, even against Houston, but the Bills have the highest-scoring offense in the AFC and appear to have moved past that (probable one-off) loss to the Steelers on Opening Day. The Texans could somehow score in the low 20s and might still not cover this number.SMALLEST SPREAD – Baltimore at Denver (+1)Denver comes into this one 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, but all three of those wins come with giant asterisks. The teams the Broncos have beaten – the Giants, Jaguars and Jets – are a combined and deserved 0-9 today. So the Ravens will be Denver’s first test, and if things go South against Baltimore, at least the Broncos will be 3-1 this time next week. Worse things have happened. Baltimore didn’t deserve to beat Detroit, but Justin Tucker’s NFL-record 66-yard FG as time expired got the job done.LARGEST TOTAL – Kansas City at Philadelphia (54.5)Who else but the Chiefs in this slot again? After being held to 24 points in a somewhat head-scratching loss to the Chargers, no doubt Andy Reid and the offense will work on some things this week. They will need to be ready, because the Eagles defense has shown some life in the early going. BTW, KC and the Chargers put 54 points on the board this past Sunday (30-24 LA), and the O/U number was 55.LOWEST TOTAL – Indianapolis at Miami (45.5)Presumed franchise QB Tua Tagovailoa is out until mid-October, and what that means to the Dolphins in the short term is anyone’s guess. The offense led by backup Jacoby Brissett was passable, but everyone knows Brissette is a stopgap until Tagovailoa comes back and the Fins can really evaluate where they are. The Colts, meanwhile, are four quarters away from cashing in their chips for the season.

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NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 4

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021

Another week of NFL action is in the books, providing us with a little more clarity regarding which teams are contenders and which are pretenders as we approach the quarter-pole of the season.Here's a look at two teams on the rise and two on their way down in this week's edition of 'Stock Rising and Falling'.Stock risingCincinnati BengalsThere's wasn't a lot of optimism around the Bengals entering the season with most figuring that second-year quarterback Joe Burrow would be eased back into the offense after suffering a devastating season-ending injury in the back half of 2020. Burrow has exceeded expectations, however, throwing for seven touchdown passes in guiding the Bengals to a 2-1 start. Now the schedule eases up with a Thursday night home game against the reeling Jaguars and a trip to Detroit to face the lowly Lions sandwiched around a home game against the Packers. The Cincinnati offense is going to thrive with all the young talent on hand. It's the Bengals defense that was thought to be the weak link but so far, so good having allowed just 54 points through three games. Now comes an opportunity to feast on Jags struggling rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence.Buffalo BillsThe Bills are back. Did they every really go anywhere? There were plenty of critics following an ugly season-opening home loss to the Steelers - a Steelers team that has turned out to be far worse than advertised but they've been silenced following consecutive blowout wins over the Dolphins and Washington Football team, by a combined 78-21 margin. Buffalo will get another layup at home against the Texans this Sunday before a tough primetime road game in Kansas City in Week 6. Now that Josh Allen has shaken off the rust, the sky is the limit for Buffalo's offense. The defense will simply be asked to hold serve, much like it did last Sunday against Washington. Stock fallingPittsburgh SteelersThe Steelers are in an extremely sticky situation, off to a 1-2 start with their offense appearing punchless under the guidance of possibly-washed veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The issue is, there's really no 'plan B' when it comes to the quarterback position. Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins aren't better options than Big Ben as hard as that is to believe. With a cluster of key injuries on the defensive side of the football, Pittsburgh now has to limp into Lambeau Field to face the red hot Packers. It doesn't get much easier from there as the Steelers host the currently undefeated Broncos in Week 5 before facing the Seahawks in Week 6. If they don't find a way to turn things around by then the season may already be circling the drain by the time their bye rolls around in Week 7. Philadelphia EaglesWe'll stick in the state of Pennsylvania for our other 'stock falling' team this week. Monday night's game in Dallas couldn't have gone much worse. I'm not sure the Eagles have ever been completely sold on moving forward with Jalen Hurts as their long-term answer at quarterback. The fact that they went out and acquired former Jaguars starter Gardner Minshew Jr. in August was telling in my opinion. While injuries have certainly played a role, the Eagles defense hasn't been nearly good enough. Just as we saw last year, the defense has proven to be a pass-funnel unit once again and that's simply not a winning strategy in today's pass-happy NFL. Now comes an extremely difficult home date this Sunday against a Chiefs squad that will undoubtedly be in a sour mood following rare consecutive losses. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle - MLB, CFL, UEFA Champions League, and WNBA Previews and Odds - 09/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in the MLB, CFL, WNBA, and UEFA Champions League.Sixteen games are on the MLB docket. The New York Mets host Miami at 4:10 PM ET in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. Marcus Stroman pitches for the Mets against Zack Thompson of the Marlins. New York is a -200 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Chicago Cubs play at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET in the opener of their three-game series. The Pirates pitch Mitch Keller against the Cubs’ Alec Mills. Both teams are a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston visits Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET in Game 1 of their three games series. Chris Sale pitches for the Red Sox against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Boston is a -265 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Toronto plays at home against the New York Yankees at 7:07 PM ET in the first game of their three-game series. The Blue Jays pitch Hyun-Jin Ryu against the Yankees’ Jameson Taillon. Toronto is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Mets are at home against the Marlins at 7:10 PM ET in the second game of their doubleheader. New York pitches Noah Syndergaard against Miami’s Trevor Rogers. The Mets are a -145 money line favorite with the total at 6 at Play MGM. Atlanta is at home against Philadelphia on FS1 at 7:20 PM ET in the opener of their three-game series. Charlie Morton pitches for the Braves against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. Atlanta is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Minnesota hosts Detroit at 7:40 PM ET in Game 1 of their three-game series. The Tigers pitch Tyler Alexander against a Twins pitcher that has yet to be determined. Minnesota is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Milwaukee visits St. Louis at 7:45 PM ET in the first game of their three-game series. Brandon Woodruff pitches for the Brewers against Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. Milwaukee is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 7.The Los Angeles Angels travel to Texas in the opener of their three-game series at 8:05 PM ET. The Angels pitch Packy Naughton against the Rangers’ A.J. Alex. Los Angeles is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Three games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Kansas City hosts Cleveland in Game 1 of their three-game series. Brady Singer pitches for the Royals against Aaron Civale of the Indians. Kansas City is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. Houston plays at home against Tampa Bay in the first game of their three-game series. The Astros pitch Jose Urquidy against the Rays’ Michael Wacha. Houston is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Cincinnati in the first game of their two-game series. Reynaldo Lopez pitches for the White Sox against Riley O’Brien of the Reds. Chicago is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 9. Colorado plays at home against Washington at 8:40 PM ET in the second game of their three-game series. The Rockies pitch Kyle Freeland against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. Colorado is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 11.5. San Francisco hosts Arizona at 9:45 PM ET in the opener of their three-game series. Logan Webb pitches for the Giants against Luke Weaver of the Diamondbacks. San Francisco is a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against San Diego on ESPN in Game 1 of their three-game series. The Dodgers pitch Walker Buehler against the Padres’ Yu Darvish. Los Angeles is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland visits Seattle in the first game in their three-game series. Chris Bassitt pitches for the A’s against Tyler Anderson of the Mariners. Oakland is a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 8.The ninth week in the Canadian Football League kicks off with Edmonton traveling to Ottawa at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN+. The Elks are an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 44. The opening games of the semifinals in the WNBA playoffs tips off with a doubleheader on ESPN2. Connecticut hosts Chicago at 8 PM ET as an 8-point favorite at Play MGM with a total of 154. Las Vegas plays at home against Phoenix at 10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 169.5.Matchday 2 in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League begins with eight matches. Two games start at 12:45 PM ET. Ajax hosts Besiktas as a -2.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.5. Inter Milan visits Shakhtar Donetsk as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Six matches begin at 3 PM ET. Manchester City visits Paris Saint-Germain as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.75. RB Leipzig hosts Club Brugge as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Liverpool travels to FC Porto as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Atletico Madrid visits AC Milan in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.25. Borussia Dortmund plays at home against Sporting CP as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Real Madrid is at home against Sheriff as a -2.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games.

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Big Al's NFL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Sep 27, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the NFL, MLB, and EPL.The third week of the NFL regular season concludes with the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Philadelphia Eagles on ESPN and ESPN2 (the Manning broadcast) at 8:15 PM ET. The Cowboys improved to 1-1 with their 20-17 upset victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite last week. The Eagles lost at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings).Five games are on the MLB docket. Three games start at 1:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox visit Detroit in a makeup of an earlier postponed game. The White Sox have won two of three after their 5-2 win at Cleveland on Sunday. The Tigers have lost two of three with their 2-1 loss at home to Kansas City. Chicago pitches Dallas Keuchel against Detroit’s Matt Manning. The White Sox are a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Cincinnati hosts Pittsburgh in a one-off makeup game from a previously postponed game. The Reds have won three in a row after their 9-2 victory against Washington on Sunday. The Pirates ended a three-game losing streak with their 6-0 win at Philadelphia yesterday. Cincinnati pitches Reiver Sanmartin against a Pittsburgh starting pitcher yet to be determined. Cincinnati is a -260 money line favorite with a total of 9. Cleveland plays at home against Kansas City in a makeup game from earlier in the season. The Indians have lost two of their last three games after a 5-2 loss to the White Sox yesterday. The Royals have won two of three games after a 2-1 victory against Detroit on Sunday. Cleveland pitches Cal Quantrill against Kansas City’s Jackson Kowar. The Indians are a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Colorado is at home against Washington at 8:40 PM ET in the opening game of their three-game series. The Rockies have lost four in a row after their 6-2 loss at San Francisco. The Nationals have lost there in a row with their 9-2 loss at Cincinnati. German Marquez pitches for Colorado against Josiah Gray for Washington. The Rockies are a -180 money line favorite with a total of 11.5.Seattle hosts Oakland at 10:10 PM ET in the opener of their three-game series. The Mariners have won seven of their last eight games after their 5-1 win in Los Angeles against the Angels yesterday. The A’s have won three in a row with their 4-3 win against Houston. Seattle pitches Chris Flexen against Oakland’s Cole Irvin. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 6 of the English Premier League concludes with Brighton and Hove Albion visiting Crystal Palace on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET. The Seagulls defeated Leicester City, 2-1, last Sunday. The Eagles come off a 3-0 loss at Liverpool last Saturday. Brighton is a 0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, EPL, NFL and WNBA Previews and Odds - 09/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Sep 26, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NFL, MLB, WNBA, and EPL.The third week of the NFL regular season continues with 14 games. Nine games kick off at 1 PM ET. The primary televised game on Fox has Cleveland hosting Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite with the total set at 44 (all odds from DraftKings). Kansas City plays at home against the Los Angeles Chargers in the primary game on CBS as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Buffalo is at home against Washington as a 7-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Tennessee plays at home against Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. The New York Giants are at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite with a total of 47.5. Arizona travels to Indianapolis as an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Baltimore visits Detroit as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. New England hosts New Orleans as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 43. Pittsburgh plays at home against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite with a total of 43. Four games take place in the second-afternoon window. Two games start at 4:05 PM ET. Denver plays at home against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42. Las Vegas hosts Miami as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Two games begin at 4:25 PM ET. Seattle visits Minnesota as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 55. Tampa Bay travels to Los Angeles to play the Rams for the national broadcast on Fox as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 55. San Francisco plays at home against Green Bay for Sunday Night Football on NBC at 8:20 PM ET. The 49ers are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 50.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Kansas City plays at Detroit at 12:10 PM ET in a game where both teams are priced at -110 with a total of 9. Two games start at 1:05 PM ET. Philadelphia is at home against Pittsburgh as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Baltimore hosts Texas as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three games begin at 1:10 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at home against Miami as a -280 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at Cleveland as a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Cincinnati is at home against Washington as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Two games start at 2:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts the New York Mets on TBS as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 8. Toronto is at Minnesota as a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. St. Louis plays at Chicago against the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -160 money line road favorite. San Francisco is at Colorado at 3:10 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 11.5. Two games begin at 4:07 PM ET. Houston is at Oakland as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against Seattle as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more games start at 4:10 PM ET. San Diego is at home against Atlanta as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Arizona as a -290 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Boston hosts the New York Yankees for Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET. The Red Sox are a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. The WNBA playoffs continue with two single-elimination games. Phoenix visits Seattle on ABC at 3 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 163. Minnesota plays at home against Chicago on ESPN at 6 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 165. Matchweek 6 in the English Premier League continues with two matches on the NBC Sports Network. Southampton plays at home against Wolverhampton at 9 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Arsenal hosts Tottenham at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 25, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAAF, MLB, and the EPL.The fourth week of the college football season concludes with 55 games between FBS opponents. Sixteen of these games kick off the card in the noon-2:30 PM ET opening window. Eight games are on national television at noon. Notre Dame plays Wisconsin on a neutral field at Soldier Field in Chicago on Fox. The Badgers are a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 45 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Texas hosts Texas Tech on ABC as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 62. Boise State visits Utah State on CBS as a 9-point road favorite with a total of 70. LSU travels to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 55.5. Missouri plays at Boston College on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 58. TCU is at home against SMU on FS1 as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 66. Army plays at home against Miami (OH) on the CBS Sports Network as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48. Minnesota hosts Bowling Green as a 31-point favorite with a total of 51. Sixteen games start from 3:30 PM ET to 6 PM ET. Eight games are on national television at 3:30 PM ET. Michigan hosts Rutgers on ABC as a 20.5-point favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 50. Texas A&M plays Arkansas at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on CBS as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47. Clemson visits North Carolina State on ESPN as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 48. Louisville travels to Florida State on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 61.5. Iowa State plays at Baylor on Fox as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Iowa plays at home against Colorado State on FS1 as a 23.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Vanderbilt is at Connecticut on the CBS Sports Network as a 30-point road favorite with an over/under of 53. Memphis hosts UTSA on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 66.5. Fifteen games begin in the 7 PM ET to 8 PM ET window. Four games kickoff on national television at 7 PM ET. Florida plays at home against Tennessee on ESPN as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 65.5. Kentucky visits South Carolina on ESPN2 as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 49.5. Houston is at home against Navy on ESPNU as a 19-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Michigan State hosts Nebraska on FS1 as a 4-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Oklahoma is at home against West Virginia on ABC at 7:30 PM ET as a 17-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5. Two games are on national television at 8 PM ET. Air Force plays at home against FAU on FS2 as a 4-point favorite with a total of 54. Indiana travels to Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 63.5. Six games conclude the college football card starting at 9 PM ET. BYU plays at home against South Florida on ESPN2 at 10:15 PM ET as a 23-point favorite with a total of 54. USC hosts Oregon State on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 61.5. Oregon plays at home against Arizona on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 29.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. Arizona State is at home against Colorado on ESPNU at 10:30 PM ET as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Six games start in the afternoon. St. Louis is at Chicago to play the Cubs at 2:20 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite. Philadelphia hosts Pittsburgh at 4:05 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Houston plays at Oakland at 4:07 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite. Boston is at home against the New York Yankees at 4:10 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 10. Two games begin at 6:10 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at home against Miami as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Detroit hosts Kansas City as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 9.Baltimore plays at home against Texas at 7:05 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts the New York Mets as a -260 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Toronto is at Minnesota as a -195 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Cincinnati is at home against Washington as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Fox features two games for its regional coverage for their national broadcast at 7:15 PM ET. San Diego hosts Atlanta as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox are on the road at Cleveland as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games start at 8:10 PM ET. San Francisco plays at Colorado as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Arizona as a -240 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The MLB card concludes at 9:07 PM ET with Seattle playing in Los Angeles as a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 6 of the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Two games begin at 7:30 AM ET. Manchester City visits Chelsea in a showdown on the NBC Sports Network with both teams a pick ‘em with a total of 2.5. Manchester United hosts Aston Villa as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Four games start at 10 AM ET. Everton plays at home against Norwich City as a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. West Ham United travels to Leeds United as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Leicester City hosts Burnley on the NBC Sports Network as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Watford plays at home against Newcastle United as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool visits Brentford on the NBS Sports Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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NFL's Early Season Division Tank Job

by Tom Stryker

Friday, Sep 24, 2021

With our System of the Week checking in off a tough loss on the War Eagle in college football last Saturday, we’ll flip over to the NFL on Sunday armed with a September situation that has been money in the bank over the years. As stated before, with the help of my pro football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of early season technical sets that have performed very well. This particular situation was discovered when I was researching how well teams did in their first NFL division game.  There’s not much to it.  But it certainly packs a nice financial punch.  Take a look at what I like to call the NFL’s Early Season Division Tank Job. Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any game three division favorite or underdog of +6.5 or less provided they check in off a straight up road loss and opened the regular season with back-to-back non-division games.  41-Year ATS Record = 33-8 ATS for 80.4 percent  This Week’s Play’s = LA CHARGERS & PITTSBURGH  Off a pair of non-division battles and a straight up road loss, the knee-jerk reaction would likely be to play on this specific team thinking they would be motivated to bounce back especially if they are lined up against a division opponent.  In reality, the exact opposite happens.   Kansas City enters its game against Los Angeles off a non-division home win over Cleveland and a non-division road loss at Baltimore.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati checks into its battle against Pittsburgh off a non-division home win over Minnesota and a non-division road loss at Chicago.  The means the Chiefs and Bengals fit this negative wagering situation perfectly. There is one tighener that can be added to the general system that really makes it pop.  As long as out “play against” side did not lose to the Las Vegas pointspread by double-digits in their last game – so a line differential of -9 or less – this situation drops to a jaw-dropping 2-24 ATS!  Both Kansas City and Cincinnati apply. Good luck with the Bolts and Men of Steel on Sunday! 

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