by AAA Sports
Sunday, Jun 25, 2023Eighteen teams were on the outside looking in when the NFL playoffs started last January. If the chalk prevails, six of those teams will join the party this coming season, displacing a half-dozen who had at least a theoretical chance at winning the championship.
BTW, if you like numbers, to guarantee a playoff spot, 12 wins are required. Nine wins make it a 50-50 coin flip, 10 victories gives your boys a 91 percent probability, and 11 just about guarantees (99 percent) it. Here’s a look at nine AFC teams who hope to crash the party six months from now, and the odds that they will succeed:
CLEVELAND (Yes +120, No -140) – Bad enough that the Browns got off to a 2-5 start last season. What really should concern the fan base is that Deshaun Watson didn’t light a fire under the franchise when he returned from suspension. Cleveland ended the year 3-3, although the D was improved.
DENVER (Yes +190, No -225) – Speaking of quarterback issues, say hello to the post-Seahawks version of Russell Wilson. If Wilson – coming off the worst season of his career – doesn’t snap out of things, and fast, the front office will no doubt be on the lookout for a different QB1.
HOUSTON (Yes +475, No -700) – Not good when the best game you played at home all season ended in a tie, but that’s the Texans these days. New coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud have their hands full. Most books have Houston winning 5 or 6 games, and even sniffing the playoffs appears a bridge too far.
INDIANAPOLIS (Yes +360, No -450) – Shane Steichen parlayed his solid work as an Eagles assistant to the HC job in Indy. Whether he stays long-term depends on how athletic freak first-round draft pick Anthony Richardson adapts to the pros. The Colts will likely protect him as much as possible by pounding the ball early in the season.
NEW ENGLAND (Yes +250, No -300) – At this writing free agent DeAndre Hopkins is still sniffing around Foxboro. If he’s still there after Christmas, the Pats may one of the Select Six to climb back into the playoffs. This is Year 3 for Mac Jones, and Year 2 was one everyone (especially Mac Jones) would like to forget.
NEW YORK JETS (Yes -130, No +110) – Will this be the year that things FINALLY start to go right for the Jets? All the pieces seemed in place last year (except the most important one), and Aaron Rodgers seems to have filled that hole. There will be severe headwinds in the loaded AFC East, though, and it’s possible everyone goes 3-3 in the division.
PITTSBURGH (Yes +130, No -150) – Kenny Pickett showed enough in his rookie year to own the job at least until he loses it, but the Steelers’ best shot at reaching the playoffs from an AFC North that features Joe Burrow, Watson and Lamar Jackson might well depend on the defense and running game. Interesting stat – it’s been 30 years since Pittsburgh finished last in its division.
TENNESSEE (Yes +300, No -370) – The stink resulting from seven straight losses ending the season no doubt lingers. But how exactly will Mike Vrabel turn things around when his quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) is 35 and regressing, and bell cow RB Derrick Henry is on the bad side of 30? The defense will have to do most of the heavy lifting.
BTW, if you like numbers, to guarantee a playoff spot, 12 wins are required. Nine wins make it a 50-50 coin flip, 10 victories gives your boys a 91 percent probability, and 11 just about guarantees (99 percent) it. Here’s a look at nine AFC teams who hope to crash the party six months from now, and the odds that they will succeed:
CLEVELAND (Yes +120, No -140) – Bad enough that the Browns got off to a 2-5 start last season. What really should concern the fan base is that Deshaun Watson didn’t light a fire under the franchise when he returned from suspension. Cleveland ended the year 3-3, although the D was improved.
DENVER (Yes +190, No -225) – Speaking of quarterback issues, say hello to the post-Seahawks version of Russell Wilson. If Wilson – coming off the worst season of his career – doesn’t snap out of things, and fast, the front office will no doubt be on the lookout for a different QB1.
HOUSTON (Yes +475, No -700) – Not good when the best game you played at home all season ended in a tie, but that’s the Texans these days. New coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud have their hands full. Most books have Houston winning 5 or 6 games, and even sniffing the playoffs appears a bridge too far.
INDIANAPOLIS (Yes +360, No -450) – Shane Steichen parlayed his solid work as an Eagles assistant to the HC job in Indy. Whether he stays long-term depends on how athletic freak first-round draft pick Anthony Richardson adapts to the pros. The Colts will likely protect him as much as possible by pounding the ball early in the season.
NEW ENGLAND (Yes +250, No -300) – At this writing free agent DeAndre Hopkins is still sniffing around Foxboro. If he’s still there after Christmas, the Pats may one of the Select Six to climb back into the playoffs. This is Year 3 for Mac Jones, and Year 2 was one everyone (especially Mac Jones) would like to forget.
NEW YORK JETS (Yes -130, No +110) – Will this be the year that things FINALLY start to go right for the Jets? All the pieces seemed in place last year (except the most important one), and Aaron Rodgers seems to have filled that hole. There will be severe headwinds in the loaded AFC East, though, and it’s possible everyone goes 3-3 in the division.
PITTSBURGH (Yes +130, No -150) – Kenny Pickett showed enough in his rookie year to own the job at least until he loses it, but the Steelers’ best shot at reaching the playoffs from an AFC North that features Joe Burrow, Watson and Lamar Jackson might well depend on the defense and running game. Interesting stat – it’s been 30 years since Pittsburgh finished last in its division.
TENNESSEE (Yes +300, No -370) – The stink resulting from seven straight losses ending the season no doubt lingers. But how exactly will Mike Vrabel turn things around when his quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) is 35 and regressing, and bell cow RB Derrick Henry is on the bad side of 30? The defense will have to do most of the heavy lifting.
