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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 11/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 04, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and the NHL.Week 9 in the National Football kicks off with the Indianapolis Colts hosting the New York Jets on Fox and the NFL Network at 8:20 PM ET. The Colts had their two-game winning streak end with a 34-31 upset loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Their record dropped to 3-5 with the loss. The Jets ended their two-game losing streak with a 31-24 upset win against Cincinnati as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. New York’s record improved to 2-5. With rookie quarterback Zach Wilson still out with a knee injury, Mike White is the Jets starting quarterback for the second straight week. Indianapolis is a 10.5-point favorite, with the total set at 46 (all odds from DraftKings). Week 10 in the college football regular continues with one game between FBS opponents. Louisiana-Lafayette plays at home against Georgia State on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Ragin’ Cajuns won their seventh straight game with their 45-0 victory against Texas State as a 21-point favorite on Saturday. They are 7-1 on the season after their opening week 20-point loss at Texas. The Panthers have won three in a row with their 21-14 victory at Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. Georgia State has leveled its record at 4-4. Louisiana is a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Philadelphia visits Detroit at 7:10 PM ET as a 6.5-point road favorite. Two games start at 7:40 PM ET. Utah travels to Atlanta as a 1-point road favorite. Boston plays at Miami as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 214. Phoenix is at home against Houston at 10:10 PM ET as a 10-point favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Oklahoma City at 10:40 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Six games have the puck drop at 7:08 PM ET. Boston hosts Detroit as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Toronto plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders travel to Montreal as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Vegas visits Ottawa as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida is at home against Washington as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Pittsburgh plays at home against Philadelphia as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6. Calgary is at home against Dallas at 9:08 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Seattle hosts Buffalo at 10:08 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. St. Louis visits San Jose at 10:38 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.

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NFL Week 9 Breakdown

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Nov 03, 2021

BEST GAME -- Tennessee at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)Tennessee -- 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATSLos Angeles – 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATSJust when things were about as good as they can get for the Titans, word is out that they may have lost the NFL’s top rusher, Derrick Henry, for the season with a foot injury. On the plus side, Tennessee may have already locked up the weak AFC South. Houston and Jacksonville are already playing out the string, and second-place Indianapolis is three back in the loss column with two losses to Tennessee. So we’ll see how hard the Titans go after the Rams this coming Sunday night. LA needs this one badly to keep pace with 7-1 Arizona, and the Cardinals have a soft November schedule before the two teams meet in mid-December in what could be the deciding game in the NFC West. That might account for the somewhat heavy 6.5 number.WORST GAME -- Houston at Miami (-7)Houston 1-7 SU, 4-4 ATSMiami 1-7 SU, 2-5-1When a team with playoff expectations loses seven straight games and is out of the running before Thanksgiving, critics use one eye to look at the coach and the other on the quarterback. So it is in south Florida today, where Brian Flores and Tua Tagovailoa both have to wonder if they’ll be around next season when the Fins try again to turn things around. Miami’s offense struggled for four quarters this past Sunday against the Bills, setting up a Week 9 battle in a game that has implications for the No. 1 draft choice next spring. Despite Miami’s issues, early bettors still like the Dolphins at -7.BIGGEST SPREADBuffalo at Jacksonville (-14)Buffalo 5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATSJacksonville 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATSYou figure that the Jags would have shown a little more fight in their 24-points loss to Seattle, what with coming off a bye week and their first win of the year – and the Seahawks forced to use Geno Smith at QB. But it all fell apart early, and now Jacksonville’s mediocre offense has to face the best defense in the NFL. Not many takers for the Jaguars even at +14 and playing at home, even against a Bills team that had trouble moving the ball for three quarters against the Dolphins before breaking it open late. With New England starting to make some noise in the AFC East, the Bills need to maintain focus.SMALLEST SPREAD – Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2.5)Cleveland 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATSCincinnati 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATSWeird season so far in the AFC North, the land of tight betting lines and where no one seems to be able to dominate. Neither the Browns not the Bengals will be devastated by a loss, but a division win is a division win. The Browns will spend the week trying to repair an offense that sprang numerous leaks in an odd 15-10 loss to Pittsburgh this past Sunday, in some way screwing up nearly every offensive possession. Don’t expect much sympathy from the Bengals, whose problems were on the defensive side of the ball in a loss to the Jets and backup QB Mike White.BIGGEST TOTAL – Green Bay at Kansas City (55.5)Green Bay 7-1 SU, 7-1 ATSKansas City 4-4 SU 2-6 ATSThe Chiefs are trying desperately to battle their way back into contention. A .500 record heading into the second half of the season at least keeps them alive although maybe not kicking, and they’ll be emptying the playbook against the Packers in a game that could make or break their season. Green Bay, meanwhile, has been a crummy Over team. In fact, five straight games have gone Under, and the Pack have been unable to break 30 points since the end of September.SMALLEST TOTAL – Chicago at Pittsburgh (40)Chicago 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATSPittsburgh 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATSNo one figured that scoring points would be THIS much of an issue in Chicago, especially after drafting Justin Fields. But here we are, eight weeks in the books, and the Bears have scored more than 20 points only twice this season. The Steelers, who will be on the lookout for a QB of their own when the season in all likelihood ends Ben Roethlisberger’s career, haven’t had a breakout offensive game of their own. It all adds up to a 40-point total on the books – a rarity in today’s NFL.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NCAAF, NBA and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 11/03/21

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 03, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and the UEFA Champions League.Week 10 in the college football regular continues with two games in Mid-American midweek “MACtion” at 7 PM ET. Kent State hosts Northern Illinois on ESPN2. The Golden Flashes have won three of their last four games after their 34-27 victory at Ohio as a 5-point favorite on October 23rd. They evened their record at 4-4 on the season with the victory. The Huskies have won five in a row with their 39-38 upset win at Central Michigan as a 6-point underdog on October 23rd. Northern Illinois has improved to 6-2 on the year. Kent State is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 68 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Western Michigan plays at home against Central Michigan on ESPNU. The Broncos have lost two of their last three games with their 34-15 upset loss at Toledo as a 1.5-point favorite on October 23rd. Their record has fallen to a 5-3 mark. The Chippewas had their two-game winning streak end with their 39-38 upset loss to Northern Illinois as a 6-point favorite on October 23rd. Central Michigan has a 4-4 record. Western Michigan is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 67. Eleven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Five games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. Portland visits Cleveland as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 220. Indiana plays at home against New York as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218. Boston travels to Orlando as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 215.5. Philadelphia is at home against Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite at BetRivers. Washington hosts Toronto as a 3-point favorite. Atlanta plays at Brooklyn in the first game of the doubleheader on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Nets are a 4.5-point favorite. Two games start at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite. Memphis hosts Denver as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 213. San Antonio is at home against Dallas at 8:40 PM ET in a pick ‘em match up. Two games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Sacramento plays at home against New Orleans as a 5-point favorite. Golden State hosts Charlotte in the nightcap on ESPN as a 6-point favorite with a total of 226. Four games are on the National Hockey League slate. Two games drop the puck at 8:37 PM ET. Edmonton plays at home against Nashville as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Carolina visits Chicago as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Colorado hosts Columbus at 9:07 PM ET as a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. St. Louis travels to Los Angeles on TNT as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Matchday 4 in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight matches. Two games start at 1:45 PM ET. AC Milan plays at home against Porto as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Real Madrid hosts Shakhtar Donetsk as a -2 goal line favorite with a total of 3. The six remaining matches begin at 4 PM ET. Manchester City is at home against Club Brugge as a -2.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.5. Paris Saint-Germain travels to RB Leipzig in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Liverpool plays at home against Atletico Madrid as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Sporting Lisbon is at home against Besiktas as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Ajax plays at Borussia Dortmund in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3.5. Inter Milan visits Sheriff as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3.

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NHL Off the Post: Week of November 1st

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Nov 02, 2021

In a new weekly column I'll be taking a look around the NHL at some current angles and trends you can use in your daily hockey handicapping. Here's a quick look at some interesting tidbits from around the league as we flip the calendar page over to November. Shooting (blanks) StarsThe Dallas Stars have been an 'under' bettors' dream so far this season. Eight games, eight 'under' results. We've seen the Stars score more than two goals just twice in those eight games and they head into Tuesday's matchup in Winnipeg having found the back of the net only four times in their last three games combined. We have to anticipate some regression to the mean from a totals perspective moving forward, especially when you consider Dallas boasts what I would consider a below-average goaltending tandem that features veterans Braden Holtby and Anton Khudobin (at least until Ben Bishop gets healthy). It's not as if the Stars talent cupboard is bare, particularly up front, and they enter the new week as healthy as any team in the league outside of Bishop.Fly-ing high in PhillyThe Philadelphia Flyers return home off consecutive 'under' results in Western Canada after their first five games this season had all totaled six goals or more (4-0-1 o/u record in those games). They'll host the reeling Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday, noting that Flyers home games have totaled 9, 7, 9 and 6 goals this season. Perhaps their recent low-scoring results are factoring into Tuesday's total, however, as it sits at a reasonable 5.5. In games involving Philadelphia totaled at 5.5 goals this season, the 'over' has gone a perfect 2-0. Arizona checks in sporting a 17-7 o/u record the last 24 times it has come off five or more consecutive losses, as is the case now as it sits 0-9 on the season.Mile high expectationsIt wasn't the start they had hoped for, but the Colorado Avalanche have rounded back into form as they head into Wednesday's home game against Columbus off back-to-back victories over the Blues and Wild. Of course, injuries and quarantines played a role in the Avs slow start as Nathan MacKinnon started the season on the shelf while Gabriel Landeskog (suspension) and Mikko Rantanen (injury) have missed time as well. Interestingly, Colorado has yet to close as a favorite -200 or higher this season. That could be short-lived as we're likely to see the Avs laying a steep price at home against the Blue Jackets on Wednesday night. Note that the Avs check into that game sporting a 29-5 record the last 34 times they've come off a home win by two goals or more.A devil of a timeThe spooky season may be in the rear-view mirror but the New Jersey Devils are still dealing with some demons of their own. Since opening the season with back-to-back victories they haven't been able to string together a winning streak since, going 2-3 over their last five contests. I'm more interested in playing New Jersey 'overs' rather than backing or fading it at this point, as it remains a struggle between the pipes until MacKenzie Blackwood can get back in the crease. The Devils have already used three goaltenders this season. Only veteran Jonathan Bernier has enjoyed much success but we're talking about a small sample size of three games as he's dealt with an injury as well. On a positive note, even with former first overall draft pick Jack Hughes sidelined since game two, New Jersey has managed to score three or more goals in five of seven contests this season. Not surprisingly, the 'over' is 4-2-1 in the Devils seven games and next up is a date with the Anaheim Ducks, who have seen the 'over' cash in seven consecutive games, on Tuesday night. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NCAAF, NBA, NHL and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 11/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Nov 02, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in MLB, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and the UEFA Champions League.The World Series in Major League Baseball continues with Game 6 on Fox with the first pitch at 8:09 PM ET. Houston pulled this series within a 3-2 margin with their 9-5 victory in Atlanta on Sunday. The Astros pitch Luis Garcia against the Braves’ Max Fried. Houston is a -130 money line favorite to extend this series to a final seventh game with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Week 10 in the college football regular season kicks off with three games in Mid-American midweek “MACtion.” Ball State visits Akron on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Cardinals had their three-game winning streak end with their 24-17 upset loss at home to Miami (Ohio) as a 3.5-point favorite on October 23rd. The Zips have lost four of their last five games after a 45-10 loss to Buffalo as a 13.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago. Ball State is a 20-point road favorite with an over/under of 58.5. Miami (Ohio) travels to Ohio on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET. The Red Hawks have won three of their last four games with their upset win at Ball State. The Bobcats have lost three in a row after their 34-27 setback against Kent State as a 5-point underdog on October 23rd. Miami (Ohio) is a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 52.5. Toledo hosts Eastern Michigan on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM ET. The Rockets ended their two-game losing streak with their 34-15 upset win against Western Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog on October 23rd. The Eagles have won two of their last three games with a 55-24 win at Bowling Green as a 4.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago. Toledo is a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Milwaukee visits Detroit at 7:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite. Dallas plays at home against Miami on TNT as a 1-point road favorite. Utah plays at home against Sacramento at 9:10 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 219. Philadelphia hosts New Orleans on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as an 11-point favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Houston at 10:40 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 217.5. Nine games are on the National Hockey League slate. Three games have the puck drop at 7:08 PM ET. Toronto hosts Vegas as a -185 money line favorite with a total of 6. Montreal is at home against Detroit as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Philadelphia plays at home against Arizona as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games start at 8:08 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Ottawa as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg plays at home against Dallas as a -130 money line favorite with the total of 5.5. Calgary hosts Nashville at 9:08 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games begin at 10:08 PM ET. The New York Rangers travel to Vancouver as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. New Jersey plays at Anaheim as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. San Jose is at home against Buffalo as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Matchday 4 in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League begins with eight matches. Two games begin at 1:45 PM ET. Salzburg visits Wolfsburg in a pick ‘em match at Play MGM with the total at 2.5. Chelsea visits Malmo as a -2 goal line road favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 3. The six remaining matches start at 4 PM ET. Barcelona travels to Dynamo Kyiv as a -1 goal line road favorite at Play MGM with a total of 2.5. Bayern Munich plays at home against Benfica as a -2 goal line favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 3.5. Villarreal hosts the Young Boys as a -1 goal line favorite at Play MGM with a total of 3. Sevilla is at home against Lille as a -1 goal line favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester United visits Atalanta at a +125 money line price on the three-way bet at BetRivers, with Atalanta priced at +195 and the draw at +285. Juventus hosts Zenit St. Petersburg as a -195 money line favorite on the three-way bet, with Zenit priced at +575 money line and the draw at +320.All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+. The CBS Sports Network’s “The Golazo Show” is an NFL Red Zone-inspired show that presents live updated highlights of all eight games.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, NBA, EPL and NFL Previews and Odds - 11/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Nov 01, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the NFL, NBA, NHL, and the EPL.Week 8 in the National Football League concludes with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the New York Giants on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET. The Chiefs have lost four of their last six games after getting upset by the Titans on the road by a 27-3 score as a 4-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Patrick Mahomes completed 20 of 35 passes for 206 yards with an interception and no touchdown passes in the loss. The loss dropped them to 3-4 on the season, with their four losses all against AFC rivals who may have seized a playoff tie-breaker against them if they end of with identical records fighting for playoff spots. Kansas City lost at Baltimore and home to the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo before their setback in Nashville against Tennessee.The Giants ended their two-game losing streak with their 25-3 upset win against Carolina as a 3-point underdog last week. Daniel Jones completed 23 of 33 passes for 203 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the victory. New York improved their record to 2-5 on the season. They ended a three-game losing streak to open the year with a 6-point win at New Orleans. Injuries beset the Giants with running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Kenny Golladay out for this game. Wide receivers Sterling Shephard and Kadarius Toney after being limited participants in practice.  Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite with the total set at 51.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Four games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte plays at home against Cleveland as a 4-point favorite. Indiana is at home against San Antonio as a 3.5-point favorite. Philadelphia plays at home against Portland as a 6-point favorite. Three more games in the NBA begin at 7:40 PM ET. Atlanta hosts Washington as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222. Boston is at home against Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite. New York plays at home against Toronto as a 7-point favorite with a total of 211.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Memphis hosts Denver as a 1.5-point favorite. Minnesota is at home against Orlando as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 216. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against Oklahoma City at 10:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 213. Three games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Tampa Bay is at home against Washington at 7:08 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Chicago hosts Ottawa at 8:08 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at home against Seattle at 9:38 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League concludes with one match at 12:30 PM ET. Wolverhampton hosts Everton on the NBC Sports Network. BetRivers lists the Wolves at a +123 price to win on the three-way bet, with the Toffees priced at +235 and the draw paying out at +235. The total is at 2.5.

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A Tale of Two Improving NBA Defenses/ Sacramento and New Orleans

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

Two of the worst defenses in the NBA last season belonged to the Sacramento Kings and the New Orleans Pelicans. Both have seen immediate improvements this season, although both teams had nowhere to go but up. Yet both teams may offer some intriguing betting value with either unders or as a point spread underdog early in the NBA season. The Kings posted a historically bad defensive rating of 116.5 last season. They allowed their opponents to make 48.8% of their shots. which was also the worst mark in the NBA. Opponents scored 117.4 points per game against them, ranking 28th in the league. Rookie Davion Mitchell has made an immediate impact on the play of the Kings' defense already this season. The former Baylor star is establishing himself as a clampdown ball defender. He held Damian Lillard to 1 of 7 shooting, Donovan Mitchell to 2 of 6 shooting, and Jordan Clarkson to 2 of 6 shooting in his first two games in the league after earning rave reviews with his defense in the Summer League. Sacramento had limited their three most recent opponents to no better than 45.2% shooting before playing in New Orleans on Thursday. They held the Pelicans to 42.9% shooting in a 113-109 victory. They close out the month with an improved defensive rating of 110.2, good for 25th in the league. While not great, things are moving in the right direction. Opponents are scoring 111.8 points per game, an improvement of almost 6 ppg earning them a ranking of 22nd. Their opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.4% is 16th in the NBA.New Orleans was another team that had the directive to improve their play on defense this season. The Pelicans never took to head coach Stan Van Gundy. They allowed 114.9 points per game with opponents hitting 46.9% of their shots, ranking 24th and 19th in the league. Their defensive rating of 113.3 was 23rd. Management brought in Willie Green after his successful stint as an assistant coach with Phoenix, and he has made an instant impact on the team’s play on defense. New Orleans may have lost to Atlanta on Wednesday (10/28) 102-99, yet the play of the defense was quite good as they held the Hawks to 41.7% shooting. The Pelicans had held their last three opponents to 98.7 points per game on 39% shooting with none of those three teams topping 102 points. New Orleans' defense faltered against the Kings who made 50% of their shots against them. Yet their defensive numbers to end the month show improvement from last year. While their defensive rating ranks 26th, it has improved to 110.2. Opponents are making 45.9% of their shots, 22nd in the NBA. They are allowing 110.0 points per game, 20th in the league, in an improvement of almost 4 points per game.These trends may not hold, although the additions of Mitchell and Green suggest that they just might. There may be more valuable opportunities with these teams in November before the market catches up. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

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The Impact of Weather on Football Over/Unders

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The role that rain and windy weather was put to the test in the last week with three games on prime time national television. A bomb cyclone in the Pacific Northwest impacted the Sunday night game in the NFL between Indianapolis and San Francisco. It also affected the Monday night game between New Orleans and Seattle. Rain and wind then played a role in the Sun Belt Conference on Thursday in the game between Troy and Coastal Carolina.Rain and winds in the 15 to 17 miles per hour range with occasional gusts were the conditions that the Colts and 49ers had to deal with in their game. Conditions like that impact the passing games and field goal attempts. Some bettors may have presumed the under was the preferred play yet the final score did not stay under the number despite the inclement weather. However, the weather played a major role in how that game played out. Only thirteen combined points were scored in the second and third quarters. Indianapolis gained only 295 yards on seventeen first downs and San Francisco managed just 280 yards on thirteen first downs. Those are offensive numbers that reliably lead to winning unders. The Colts got help from the 49ers committing two big pass interference plays on jump ball deep passes that led to two of their touchdowns. Both passing games were limited. Indianapolis passed for 147 yards and San Francisco passed for 169 yards. The Colts missed an extra point and later chose to go for a two-point conversion given the difficult wind conditions.Bad weather does not guarantee lower-scoring games but it can negatively impact some of the things that lead to higher-scoring games. There were seven fumbles between both teams. Turnovers are neutral in the long run in impacting over/unders since giving the ball up stalls drives and creates good scoring opportunities for the opposition.The rain and wind were less pronounced the next night in Seattle, yet that game was a low-scoring contest that the Saints won, 13-10. Sometimes games are destined to be low-scoring.  Weather is a factor when considering over/under plays, yet it should not replace the underlying factors in the game matchup between both teams. For Troy’s visit to Coastal Carolina later in the week, the oddsmakers opened the point spread in the -18.5 range yet the market has pushed the number down to the key number of -17 for the Chanticleers. Perhaps the weather reports persuaded bettors to take a Trojans team with a great defense? Rain and possible thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 10 miles per hour are in the forecast. Yet could Troy slow down an angry Coastal Carolina team coming off their first loss of the season? The Chanticleers averaged 46 points per game and 523 yards per game entering the contest. They averaged 8.5 yards per play. Their rushing attack was eleventh in the nation by averaging 234 yards per game which should continue to be effective in wet conditions. Slippery conditions can help the offense since it is the defensive players that have to react to the movements of the offensive players. Those words at the time proved prophetic as Coastal Carolina gained 510 total yards of offense in a 35-28 victory that went way over the 49.5 point total installed by the oddsmakers. The Chanticleers ran the ball 40 times for 216 yards. Yet the Coastal Carolina could not stop a Trojans team that appeared limited on offense at the time. Their second-leading wide receiver Reggie Todd was suspended for the game. Troy averaged only 20.3 points per game at the time. The rushing attack averaged 106 yards per game with a 3.6 yards per carry average. Yet the Trojans rush for 164 yards on 36 carries. Troy gained 389 yards overall.Of note was that both teams committed a number of turnovers. The Trojans threw three interceptions and fumbled the ball another two times, losing the ball once. The Chanticleers threw two interceptions. Of course, fumbles and interceptions take place even in the best of weather conditions. Bettors should be careful in putting too much stock in the weather having a disproportionate impact on a point spread or over/under. Bad weather can both help and hurt scoring opportunities. The sharpest bettors will take the weather report to then handicap how those conditions will impact the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams playing the game.Good luck - TDG.

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25:16 - The Most Important Number to Understanding Seattle after Russell Wilson's Injury

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

When Russell Wilson suffered a finger injury in early October that would keep him out one to two months, many observers considered it the last straw for the Seahawks this season. While I expected the Seattle offense to be less explosive, I wrote at the time that the circumstances presented them an opportunity to get back to running the football and burning time off the clock. Wilson is great — but he sometimes gets so enamored with his moon-shot deep passing skills that it hurts his team when these plays don’t work. I thought the key consideration was this: the Seahawks’ offense was on the field for just 25:16 minutes per game in the first five games Wilson started. Asking this Seattle defense to be on the field for over 34 minutes per game was simply wearing them out. The “Let Russ Cook” mantra can sometimes be a curse for this team as they move away from what makes this team most successful. The Seattle defense allowed only 16.0 PPG in their last eight games last year after a similar terrible start statistically — and the improvement coincided with less “Russ Cooking” as the offense did not generate more than 236 passing yards in those final eight regular-season games. Most of the analytics folks have simply not accounted for the belief held by most NFL coaches that controlling the time of possession helps their own defense. I expected the Seahawks to run the ball more behind running back Alex Collins and slow the game down to help their beleaguered defense.The formula almost worked in a 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh. Seattle held the Steelers to just 335 yards. If not for a Geno Smith fumble from a vicious hit from T.J. Watt in overtime, then perhaps the Seahawks find a way to win that game. Seattle was then competitive the next week in a 13-10 loss at home to the New Orleans Saints (a team that then beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers the next week). The Seahawks held the Saints to just 304 yards. If not for two missed field goals by Jason Myers, Seattle might have won that game as well.Yet the usual suspect critics remained dismayed that the Seahawks did not blow out both teams even with Geno Smith under center. There is never a failing that would have simply been fixed by throwing the football more — the laziest of all the lazy Monday Morning Quarterbacking. If only there was a period in the Monday Night Football game when offensive coordinator Pete Carroll finally let Geno cook (there was: the disastrous final drive). “The Analytics are clear that getting to 3rd-and-1 is bad!” “Even worse is having the ball with the chance to win the game in the final possession!” I paraphrase what I read from blue check football expert on the twitter machine.As if the Analytics are quite clear in that (a) passing the football has no relationship to QB injuries (“mere coincidence”) and (b) the numbers do not reveal who the backup to Geno Smith is (Jacob Eason). “Let Jacob Cook, because interceptions are statistical anomalies!” I mock, therefore I am. The Pete Carroll Derangement Syndrome suffered by so many NFL media (who freelance as Seahawks fans) is a tell. Nine straight winning seasons lead the NFL right now, despite Seattle being run by that “idiot”! "That just shows you how good Saint Russell Wilson is!"More mocking: “Everyone knows that if only (fill in the blank for the latest hotshot OC, a former Matt Nagy type) was running Seattle offense on Monday, the Hawks upset the Saints by double-digits (after upsetting the Steelers on the road the week before), rather than just covering both times.”It's not that Carroll should be immune to criticism (issue #1: his failures on the offensive line). It is that (a) what he has accomplished in Seattle is objectively pretty, pretty, pretty good, yet (b) because it is a defensive philosophy that values running the football and an ancient concept called Time of Possession, the geniuses are miles away from simply engaging his (up to now) successful argument. By the way, the market said getting to coin flips with Geno was a win! It certainly was for those of us with Seattle tickets.What if the Seahawks without Carroll simply devolve into the Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford? Detroit was passing the ball over 60% of the time during that span -- a nice opportunity to test Let Matthew Cook aspirations of the critics. (I know, Detroit was still messing up 40%, unless it is the last play of the Super Bowl …).In cashing Seattle tickets the last two weeks, one of my arguments was that the removal of the pressure to Let Russ Cook would mean more rushing attempts and more Time of Possession. They added 2+ minutes of TOP in both games (but were still underwater with their defense on the field more than their offense). Still, Seattle played two of their best three defensive games of the season in the last two weeks. Their defense had been averaging 35:47 minutes per game on the field under Let Russ Cook (before the Steelers game). I know, Irrelevant!In Smith’s third start, Seattle dominated Jacksonville by a 31-7 score on Halloween. The defense held the Jaguars to 309 total yards. The defense was on the field more than the offense yet once again, but the 28:31 minutes were a day in the park compared to what they had been averaging in the Let Russ Cook days earlier this season. It bears repeating that many defensive coaches believe their players only have so many plays in them in a game before they fatigue and their effectiveness begins to significantly wane. Smith completed 20 of the 24 passes he attempted. Seattle ran the ball 25 times giving an almost 50-50 balance of rushing and passing. When Wilson returns to the field, many observers will notice the improved play of the defense he will be inheriting. Will they spot the connection?Best of luck — Frank.

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Gerrit Cole's Second Half Slide

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The New York Yankees were counting on Gerrit Cole to be their ace in the American League Wildcard Playoff game against their arch-rivals in the Boston Red Sox. But I was worried about the second-half decline of the star right-handed starting pitcher. He was looking to rebound from a subpar effort where he allows five runs in six innings at Toronto in his final regular-season start. For the regular season, the right-hander had a 16-8 record with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP — but he had been saddled with a 5.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .282 in five starts. That continues a disturbing trend for the Yankees’ ace who, after a great start to the season, has a 4.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and an opponent’s batting average of .255 since the All-Star Break. Were his 181 1/3 innings this season after a pandemic-shortened campaign last year produced fatigue late in the season? Were the after-effects from his bout with COVID impacting his performances? Did his recent hamstring injury hold him back? Perhaps the league’s crackdown on foreign substances has thrown off his elite stuff despite his spin rates creeping back up to his early-season levels? I don’t know, but I was skeptical that he could simply flip the switch in the playoffs after posting a 7.64 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts despite the Yankees playing for their playoff lives the last few weeks.Cole only recorded outs with six of the twelve batters he faced in what was a 6-2 loss to the Red Sox that ended their season. He gave up four hits and walked two batters in his two innings of work. He gave up two gopher balls. The home run he threw to Xander Bogaerts was just the third home run he had even allowed to a right-handed batter on change up — and for the first time in four years. Cole did not make any excuses after the setback in taking responsibility for the disappointing outing. If he did have lingering issues from COVID and/or his hamstring, he should be good to go for spring training. But the crackdown on foreign substances is worthy of continued scrutiny. When comparing the 150 four-seam fastballs he through before June 3rd with the 300 he through after that date, he experienced the 16th largest drop in spin rate of all major league pitchers last season. While Cole was still a very good starting pitcher, the loss of that final edge may preclude from the elite status he enjoyed in the previous two seasons — the very reason the Yankees signed him to a long-term contract.Best of luck — Frank.

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NBA: Early Upgrades and Downgrades

by Power Sports

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The 2021-22 NBA Season is not even two weeks old, but already there are a handful of teams where I’ve made a significant upgrade or downgrade to my own personal power rankings. That’s what I want to go over today. Upgrades Miami - The Heat figured to be a top six team in the East with the addition of Kyle Lowry. But so far they’ve played as well as anybody. Their record is 5-1 and they are outscoring opponents by a league-best 17 points per game. Ranking first in the league in defensive efficiency is always key and that’s where the Heat are right now.Golden State - Again, the Warriors are a team I’d tabbed to finish in the top six in the West. But they have been better than advertised. They are 5-1 and playing like one of the best teams in the league. They have yet to lose in regulation.New York & Chicago - I’m putting these teams together because coming into the year I thought they’d finish pretty close. One of them is probably going to get a top six spot in the East. Both have started 5-1. The Bulls did just lose Patrick Williams to a season-ending injury. The Knicks won’t be #1 in 3PT% defense again (like they were last season). So beware just a little bit. At the same time, note the Knicks are #2 in offensive efficiency and the Bulls are #4 in defensive efficiency.DowngradesLA Lakers - The Lakers have been a below average team in their first six games. That’s a downgrade from what was expected to be a top two team (along with Utah) in the Western Conference. Do I still expect LeBron and company in the top six? Of course. But this is not a deep team. Boston - The way things are looking early on, the best the Celtics might be able to do is the play-in round. They’ve definitely been below average. Three of their games have gone to overtime and they’ve twice been a loser in double overtime games. Like the Lakers, Boston ranks in the bottom third in defensive efficiency.Milwaukee - Well, when you come into the season ranked #1 in the power rankings, the best you can hope for is to maintain that ranking. The Bucks have dropped due to getting outscored by roughly five points per 100 possessions. They are even lower than the Celtics and Lakers when it comes to defensive efficiency - ranking 25th. While things are skewed due to an awful showing vs. Miami, the Bucks just lost to the T’wolves and Spurs. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB, NCAAF, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 31, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NFL, MLB, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and the EPL.Week 8 in the National Football League continues with 13 games. Eight games kick off the card at 1 PM ET. Indianapolis hosts Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 50.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Cincinnati visits the New York Jets as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 42.5. Philadelphia travels to Detroit as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 48. Atlanta plays at home against Carolina as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 46. San Francisco is at Chicago as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 40. Cleveland hosts Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 42.5. The Los Angeles Rams are at Houston as a 16.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5. Buffalo plays at home against Miami as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 49. Four games take place in the second-afternoon window. Two games begin at 4:05 PM ET. Seattle is at home against Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite with a total of 44. The Los Angeles Chargers host New England as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Two games start at 4:25 PM ET. Tampa Bay visits New Orleans as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5. Denver is at home against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Minnesota hosts Dallas on NBC for Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. The Vikings are a 3-point favorite with a total of 51. The World Series in Major League Baseball continues with Game 5 of the best-of-seven on Fox with the first pitch at 8:15 PM ET. The Atlanta Braves took a 3-1 lead with their 3-2 victory over the Houston Astros last night. The Astros will start Framber Valdez against a Braves starting pitcher yet to be named. Houston is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Five games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Dallas plays at home against Sacramento at 3:40 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts Portland in a pick ‘em match-up. Utah visits Milwaukee as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 223. Brooklyn is at home against Detroit at 7:40 PM ET as a -12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 215. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Houston at 10:40 PM ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 223.5. The National Hockey League has five games on the slate. Carolina is at home against Arizona at 1:08 PM ET as a -320 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games drop the puck at 4:08 PM ET. Montreal travels to Anaheim as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at home as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. New Jersey plays at home against Columbus at 5:08 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6. Seattle hosts the New York Rangers at 9:08 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Matchweek 10 in the English Premier League continues with two matches on the NBC Sports Network. Leeds United visits Norwich City on the NBC Sports Network at 10 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. West Ham United travels to Aston Villa at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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