NFL System of the Week - Dec 23, 2023

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Dec 23, 2023
When it's holiday time, I like to turn to my late season NFL systems.  And there's one I have been using for years to put some gifts under the Christmas tree.  It combines several of my favorite elements into one very dependable system.  Let's take a look.

Faithful followers know that one of the things I love to do when betting on NFL games is to take teams off a loss.  The NFL is an up-and-down league, and when you can get a team off a loss rather than a win, you'll give yourself a slight edge (and even better if your team is off a loss, and its opponent is off a win).

Another thing I love is playing on home underdogs (or even PK'em teams).  The edge is a slight one -- since 1980, they've cashed 51.7% of the time -- but I'd rather be on the 51.7% side than the 48.3% side!

When it comes to betting on the NFL around holiday time, I love the following system:

Play on any home underdog (or PK) in the final five weeks of the regular season if it is off a straight-up loss, and it owns a W/L percentage of .450 (or better).

Since 1980, our merry little system has rolled to a 112-69-5 ATS record.

Of course, there are certain subsets that do better than others.  Some of the ones that stand out include:

  • Underdogs of +4.5 (or more) points have gone 27-12 ATS.

  • Fading opponents off an ATS loss is 55-25-1 ATS.

  • Monday Night Football home teams have gone 11-2 ATS.

Last week, we did have the Monday Night Football home underdog in play, as Seattle (+4) upset Philadelphia, 20-17.

This week, we don't have any plays from my favored subsets, but we do have two plays from the general 112-69-5 ATS system.

One game is Saturday, while the other is Sunday.

Play on:  Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, and Minnesota +3 over Detroit.

Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

© 2024 Al McMordie's All Rights Reserved.