Articles

Analyzing ATS and O/U Data for the NBA Play-In Tournament

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

We at Team Del Genio like to assess the against the spread and totals data for unique circumstances where perhaps the situation presents an inherent edge to the favorite/underdog or over/under that the oddsmakers and/or market may fail to appreciate. Last month, we looked at how NCAA tournament teams performed in their next if they won their previous tournament game in overtime. This time, we examine NBA play-in tournament games. The play-in tournament to qualify for the quarterfinals of the Eastern and Western Conference playoffs is not like any other playoff game in the NBA. While there is a single-elimination dynamic for most of the teams competing in this event (with the exception being for the initial seventh and eighth seeds who earned the opportunity to play a second play-in single-elimination game for the eighth seed if they lose their initial play-in game for the seventh seed), those games are different than elimination games in seven-game playoff series. A playoff series where teams play each other four to seven times in a row breeds familiarity and rewards adaptions and adjustments. These play-in games lack that component. These games might produce interesting data that comes from (relatively) unfamiliar opponents playing in must-win showdowns. The NBA has now had three play-in tournaments, yet for our purposes, we are going to ignore the data from its initial incarnation since those games were played on a neutral court in the bubble during the pandemic-impacted 2020 season. Last year was the first time play-in games were played on true home courts with fans. All six home teams were favored, yet only three of them covered the point spread in victory. Four of the home teams won their games, with Memphis’ 100-96 victory against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite being the lone game where the home team won straight-up but did not cover the point spread. The over/unders split out at 3-3, yet the final game went over only because Memphis’ upset win against Golden State went to overtime. That game was still 18 points under the number before the five-minute overtime session where 31 combined points were scored.This year, all six play-in games finished under the number. Atlanta’s initial 132-103 victory at home against Charlotte to advance to play for the eighth seed was the closest call with that final score just finishing under the common closing number of 235.5. All five remaining play-in games averaged more than 11 points below the closing total. The under holds a 9-3 edge in the twelve play-tournament games played on a true home court. All six favorites in the play-in tournament this year won their games. Five of these six favorites covered the point spread in their straight-up victory. Two of these favorites were on the road. Both of these road favorites were playing in the final play-in game, and both covered the point spread in their straight-up victory. In the last two years of play-in games not taking place on neutral courts, favorites are now 8-4 ats. Home teams are just 6-6 ats.Favorites and unders may have had past underlying value in the NBA play-in tournament. Good luck - TDG.

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MLB: April's Best & Worst

by Will Rogers

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

MLB: April’s Best and WorstThe season started a week later than it was supposed to, but we’ve basically got a month’s worth of baseball to look back on.The five most profitable teams to bet on have been the Mets (+7.6 units), Padres (+7.1), Angels (+4.7), Brewers (+4.4) and Yankees (+4.3). As you can see there’s a big gap between the top two and the other three. The Mets have the best overall win percentage in either league right now. San Diego has benefited from recent series with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Angels have won six in a row as of this writing while the Yankees have won seven in a row and are the only AL team with a better run differential than the Halos. Teams that look strong but haven’t been quite as profitable are the Dodgers and Giants. You’re obviously going to have to pay a high tax to bet the Dodgers on a game by game basis. The Giants, who were the most profitable team to bet on last year, aren’t far off from the top five (+4.1 units).The five least profitable teams to bet on have been the Reds (-13.0 units), White Sox (-7.7), Rangers (-7.2), Braves (-6.3) and Tigers (-6.2). It is obviously looking like it will be a very long season in Cincinnati. They’ve scored the fewest number of runs in the National League and given up the most. The White Sox have been a huge disappointment as have the defending World Series Champion Braves. Texas is 2-9 at home. Detroit has scored the fewest runs in MLB and has dropped six in a row coming into the weekend. Two teams that have been bad and sit just outside the bottom five in net units are Baltimore and Washington. Could be an ugly season in the Beltway. Pittsburgh is also bad, but like Baltimore, will be big underdogs most games, somewhat limiting their losses in the race to the bottom of net unitsThe rash of Unders has been a big topic of discussion. Entering play on Saturday, only five teams have gone Over in more games than they’ve gone Under: Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Phillies, Cardinals. The Reds and Guardians are the only two where the Over is hitting 55% of the time. I’ve previously mentioned the Reds’ ineptitude when it come to giving up runs. The Rockies obviously play half their games at Coors Field, which always has an effect. At 9.8 runs per game, Colorado has the highest scoring games in baseball. It’s interesting to see St. Louis on the list as they are giving up only 3.3 runs per game. There are four teams that have gone Under in at least 70 percent of their games: Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers and Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are allowing only 2.5 runs per game so far. The team whose games have been the lowest scoring on average is Minnesota at 7.2 runs per game. 

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NBA Playoffs: 2nd Round Previews

by Will Rogers

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

NBA: Second Round Series Previews Bucks vs. Celtics - The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. The Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. Boston is -185 to win this series. If you like Milwaukee to pull the upset, they are +150. The series outcome with the shortest odds is Boston in seven (+325), followed by Boston in five (+400), then either side in six (+450). Milwaukee in four is the most outrageous outcome at +2000. The Celtics are now only +400 to win the NBA Finals while the Bucks have gone from having the second best odds (+500) to fourth-best (+600). The season series was a 2-2 split with the home team winning all four times. The Over/Under was also a 2-2 split. Three of the four games were played by Christmas, so those results don’t mean much anymore. It is worth noting that Boston has covered nine straight times vs. Milwaukee.What definitely matters is the Celtics have Robert Williams back while the Bucks are probably going to be without second leading scorer Kris Middleton for the duration of this series. Jaylen Brown has said he’s okay for Game 1 despite an injured hamstring. Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 points per game) in the regular season, but Milwaukee easily had the best defensive efficiency rating in the first round of the playoffs (93.9).  Warriors vs. Grizzlies - With Memphis having only advanced last night, we’re still seeing some discrepancy in the market when it comes to series price. Golden State, even though it is the lower seed, is favored to win the series. They are as high as -275 at BetMGM but -200 at the SuperBook. The Grizzlies are +210/+175 respectively at those two shops. Memphis won the season series 3-1, including a 28-point beatdown at home in late March. But Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all did not play in that game, which was the Warriors’ worst loss of the season. These were the two highest scoring teams in the first round with Golden State also posting the highest offensive efficiency rating. However, eight of the last ten meetings have gone UnderThe Warriors haven’t played since Wednesday while the Grizz are dealing with a less than 48 hour turnaround between series. Memphis was 8-2 SU and ATS as a home underdog in the regular season. Perhaps some of the skepticism surrounding them is that they trailed Minnesota by double digits in the fourth quarter in all but one of the six games. Three times they overcame a double digit fourth quarter deficit to win.  76ers vs. Heat - This series has taken a dramatic turn before it even began with Joel Embiid being out indefinitely for the 76ers. Philadelphia still has James Harden and Tyrese Maxey, but the odds for Game 1 have shot up based on the Embiid news and the Sixers are now as high as +8.5 at most shops. For Miami, Jimmy Butler has said he’s good to go for Game 1. Butler missed the close out game in the first round vs. Atlanta. Tyler Herro, who is dealing with a cold, also said he’d be ready. Kyle Lowry did not practice on Friday after missing the last two games vs. Atlanta.The regular season was a 2-2 split. Two of the games were played after Harden was traded to Philadelphia. The teams split those, each winning on their home floor. Three of the four games went Under. The most recent went Over.Do not forget that Philadelphia led its first round series with Toronto three games to none. Three of their wins came by double digits and it was a 35-point win in the close out game.  Mavs vs. Suns - Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big -350 favorite to win their second round series. A five-game series win (+280) has the shortest odds, followed by a seven-game series win (+330). It was not a dominant first round performance from the Suns by any means. They needed six games to get rid of New Orleans and posted the worst net efficiency rating of any team that advanced. However, some of that can be pinned on the fact they didn’t have Devin Booker much of the series. Booker is now back. Chris Paul averaged 22.3 points and 11.3 assists in Round 1. Luka Doncic missed the first three games of the first round, but the Mavs still were able to oust the Jazz in six games. Two of the last three games came down to the final possession. Dallas has covered five straight.The line for Game 1 is Phoenix -6. They swept the season series 3-0 and have beaten the Mavericks nine straight times going back to 2020. 

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The Limitations of Season-Long Analytics: A Look at North Carolina's Championship Game Run

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

Before the college basketball season started, I vowed to try to pay attention to teams that made significant advances during the season and into March. I had three reasons why the 2021-22 season would be unique in this regard.(1) The first full season of normality after the COVID-impacted 2020-21 campaign. The previous season was chaotic for all college basketball teams. Practice sessions were different with coaches and players navigating the rules of the road regarding what was safe and appropriate during a pandemic. Players were frequently unavailable to practice and/or play in games if they tested positive for COVID. These necessary disruptions impacted player and team development. While things were not back to pre-COVID levels of normalcy, the easing of COVID regulations provided coaches the opportunity to better develop individual skills and team cohesion. (2) The NCAA’s decision to grant everyone an extra year of eligibility would create some intriguing teams with veteran experience. The NCAA did not deem any collegiate player who competed during the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season to lose that year of college eligibility. This allowed many teams to bring back fifth-year seniors and even six-year “super seniors” who had already been granted an extra year of eligibility earlier in their collegiate careers. These teams who may lack the elite talent of the blue-chip programs could make up the divide with older groups with depth — and their experience may help them peak once March hit with single-elimination tournaments. Miami, Florida was a great example of this phenomenon as they were led by Kameron McCusty and Charlie Moore as super sixth-year seniors who led a starting five consisting of four seniors. Despite being a #10 seed, the Hurricanes reached the Elite Eight before losing to the eventual National Champion Kansas Jayhawks. (3) The opening up of the transfer portal is changing college basketball, irrespective of the after-effects of the pandemic. Most coaches say that the new transfer window rules have had the biggest impact on how college basketball operates. Good for the players (and boo-hoo for the well-paid head coaches whose jobs became more challenging). How transfers will fit into new rosters and systems is not something that is known in the early games in November. Coaches are building a team identity for March and the single-elimination tournaments at the end of the season. College basketball teams have always improved or regressed as the season goes on. Evaluating season-long team data and analytics should always be taken with a grain of salt. But, now more than ever, even the fantastic data provided by folks like Ken Pomeroy needed to be treated with additional scrutiny simply because it might include statistics that changed as qualitative adjustments were made to the individual teams in question. Frankly, I missed it on Miami (FL) this season. I did not appreciate how good they would be in the NCAA Tournament (and too quickly dismissed their results as a result of a favorable road to the Elite Eight). Fortunately, I finally figured out North Carolina — but it took their victory against a very good UCLA team for me to finally appreciate what rookie head coach Hubert Davis has done with this Tar Heels team. I thought that Bruins' team that went to the Final Four last year was really good — but North Carolina rallied from a 56-51 deficit with under nine minutes to go to cleanly win by a 73-66 score. A 22-10 run to close out that game was impressive. A mistake the analytics community in all-sports can make is not knowing when to pivot away from season-long stats to privilege recent data — ask those bettors who did not figure out the Cincinnati Bengals. One of the power rankings systems I use considered the Tar Heels the best team in the nation going into the Final Four weekend in terms of Net Adjusted Efficiency over their last ten games. Those numbers also ranked North Carolina with the fifth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency since February 17th (before the Final Four). What made an impression on me was the team balance Davis had fostered. Davis’ decision to have R.J. Davis take over more of the ball-handling duties to let Caleb Love play more off the ball as a wing made a significant difference. Four different players led them in scoring in each of their first four NCAA Tournament games. Brady Manek scored 28 points in their opening win against Marquette. R.J. Davis poured in 30 points in their dethroning of the reigning champion Baylor. Caleb Love scored 30 points in the win against UCLA. And then Armando Bacot scored 22 points and added 20 rebounds in their 20-point win against St. Peter’s. It was then Love on in the Final Four showdown with Duke who took charge for this team by scoring 28 points against the Blue Devils. What these Tar Heels could do that too many of the teams under Roy Williams could not is make their 3s. North Carolina saw at least one player nail at least three 3s in each of their games in the Big Dance. And while them taking 38.0% of their shots from behind the mark is just above the 37.7% national average, there were many years under Williams where they were not taking more than 30% of their shots from 3-point range. The Tar Heels were rolling — and I expected the momentum to continue after the continued confidence they have after beating a Duke team loaded with future NBA talent. North Carolina was our 25* College Basketball Game of the Year in the National Championship Game against Kansas. After taking a 38-22 lead late in the first half, the Tar Heels blew the lead in the second half but, fortunately, held on to cover the point spread getting +3.5 to +4 points in most spots. The oddsmakers and the market evaluated North Carolina for their season-long efforts — and the winning difference (by just a point!) was appreciating the improvements the Tar Heels made along the way that made a different and better team. A good lesson moving forward. Best of luck — Frank.

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Ness Notes: NBA's Second Season

by Larry Ness

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

After a second consecutive year of a 'Play-In' round, the NBA's 16-team field opened the 2022 postseason back on April 16th.This year's field was missing five playoff teams from the previous postseason. The NY Knicks were a No. 4 seed in the East last season (ending a seven-year playoff drought) but were never really a playoff contender this season. Washington was able to garner a No. 8 seed last year despite a 34-38 record but the Wizards' 35-47 record this year left them EIGHT games 'south' of the final 'Play-In' spot. Toronto saw its run of seven consecutive postseason appearances end last year (Raptors won the NBA title in 2019) but earned a No. 5 seed with a 48-34 record. Chicago ended a four-year playoff drought this season with a 46-36 record, earning the East's No. 6 seed.Over in the West, the LA Clippers failed to make it out of the 'Play-In' round, ending a run of having played in NINE of the previous 10 postseasons. Portland, which had made the last EIGHT postseasons, finished 27-55, SEVEN games shy of the last 'Play-In' seed (No. 10). The most notable absence from this year's playoff field were the Lakers (the 2020 champs), whose 33-49 record left them one game behind the Spurs (No. 10 seed). Taking those three open spots were the Warriors, T-wolves and Pelicans. Golden St had been to FIVE straight NBA finals (2015-19) but after a nightmare 2019-20 season, didn't make it out of the 'Play-In' round last season. The Warriors challenged the Suns for the West's record early on but ended 53-29, giving them the No. 3 seed. 46-36 Minnesota finished with the No. 7 but earned its way into the playoff field by beating the No. 8 Clippers. It marked just Minnesota's second playoff berth over the previous 17 years (the other came in 2018). The West's final playoff spot went to New Orleans, which played the entire season without 'King' Zion. The Pels were just 36-46 in the regular season but won a home game over the Spurs and then won at the Clippers, to snag the West's No. 8 seed.It's important to note at this time of year that the NBA playoffs do not typically serve up “unlikely” champs. After all, the NBA consists of 30 teams but just 16 have won championships since the 1976-77 merger. Only EIGHT teams have won multiple titles, with the Lakers leading the way with 11. The Lakers are followed by the Bulls (six), Spurs (five), Celtics (four), Warriors, (three), Heat (three), Pistons (three) and Rockets (two). Taking a closer look, let me return to the start of the 1979-80 season, when Bird and Magic entered the NBA, rejuvenating what was a 'dying' league. Here's what a check of the history books tells us. Of the 42 championship teams since that 1979-80 season, 19 have been teams which finished the regular season with the best regular season record (or tied for the best record). Ten champs have been teams which finished with its second-best mark and seven others with its third-best record. That said, the 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks were the East's No. 3 seed and at 46-26, owned just the NBA's 7th-best record.The NBA expanded its playoff field to 16 teams for the 1983-84 season but first round series were best-of-five with all remaining series being the best-of-seven. The first round was extended to a best-of-seven series for the 2002-03 season (and has remained in place) with the change arguably benefitting the higher seeded teams by reducing the likelihood of an upset by a lower seed. The lowest seed to reach the NBA Finals was the No. 8 NY Knicks in the 50-game strike season of 1998-99, who would lose 4-1 to the Spurs (the first of Pop's five championship teams). The lowest seed to win an NBA title was the No. 6 Houston Rockets (West) in the 1994-95 season. Houston had won the NBA title the year before, but the team's second consecutive title was an unforgettable one. The Rockets finished that season 47-35, tied for the NBA's 10th-best record. However, Houston won all FOUR series without the home court edge and its 'victims' that postseason had a combined record of 238-90 (.726) during the regular season. No championship team, before or since, has beaten a more impressive group of challengers on its way to an NBA title.First Round recap: The higher seed won all EIGHT of the first round series. There was just one 4-0 sweep (Boston over Brooklyn), three series went five games and four more went six games. Boston's sweep of Brooklyn was notable, as the Nets were preseason favorites to win the East. Throw in the fact that the Lakers were preseason favorites in the West and didn't even make the playoffs, the league's two preseason favorites did not win a SINGLE postseason game. Three of the four six-game series came in the West. Philly went up 3-0 on Toronto but didn't close out the Raptors until Game 6 in Toronto. How about this factoid? Philadelphia / Toronto was the first Eastern Conference first-round series to go beyond five games in four years! Golden St used a 'small ball" lineup to eliminate Denver in five games, but the other three Western Conference series went six games. The 68-14 Suns were the NBA's best team (EIGHT games better than Memphis) but lost leading scorer Devin Booker in Game 2 of their series with the eight-seeded Pelicans. The Pelicans opened the season 1-12 and finished 36-46 (28 games worse than Phoenix) but found themselves tied at two-all after a game 4 win. The Suns won Games 5 and 6 with Chris Paul playing a "game for the ages" in Game 6, scoring 33 points on 14 of 14 FG shooting. It's the most made field goals without a miss in NBA playoff history. Memphis owned the NBA's second-best overall record and its best ATS mark (52-29-1) but not only needed six games to eliminate 7th-seeded Minnesota (playing in just its second postseason since 2014), but also needed dramatic 4th-quarter comebacks to do so. The Grizzlies are the first team in NBA history to have multiple wins in a single playoff series in which they trailed by double-digits entering the fourth quarter. Memphis overcame double-digit deficits to win Games 3, 5 and 6. The third Western Conference series to go six games was No. 4 Dallas over No. 5 Utah. The series win is the first for superstar Luka Doncic (Mavs had lost in the first round in each of the previous two years) but I'd be remiss to not give a shout out to Jalen Brunson. The four-year vet from Villanova owns a career regular season line of 11.9-3.0-3.7 but averaged 27.8-4.8-4.2 against Utah. Brunson scored 20-plus points in all six games, despite NEVER having had 20-plus points in more than TWO straight regular-season games. Want more? He averaged 38 minutes per game and committed just FOUR turnovers. Just the facts (numbers). There were 43 games in Round 1, with home teams going 25-18 (.581) but just 19-24 ATS (44.2%). Over/Under players have seen 27 of the 43 games stay "under the closing number," for a win percentage of 62.8%. Those following the "Zig-Zag" Theory are again finding that it has long ago become a useful (winning) tool. The ATS record is 16-19 or minus-4.6 net games. The second round begins Sunday and, in the East, Miami (Butler), Milwaukee (Middleton) and Philadelphia (Embiid) are all dealing with key injuries. Meanwhile, Boston is healthy and since sitting at 25-25 back on the morning of January 29th, has won 30 of its last 36 games! Over in the West, Booker was back for the Suns in their Game 6 series-clinching win against the Pelicans plus Memphis, Golden St and Dallas have no serious injury issues.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 30, 2022

The Saturday sports card features MLB and EPL action.The Major League Baseball schedule has 15 games. St. Louis hosts Arizona at 2:15 PM ET. The Cardinals send Miles Mikolas to the mound to pitch against Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. St. Louis is a -160 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Toronto plays at home against Houston at 3:07 PM ET. Jose Berrios is the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays against the Astros’ Luis Garcia. Toronto is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. San Francisco is at home against Washington. The Giants pitch Logan Webb against Joan Adon of the Nationals. San Francisco is a -250 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels in the opening game of a doubleheader on FS1. The White Sox won their second game in their last three with a 5-1 victory against the Angels on Friday. They improved their record to 8-11 with the win. Los Angeles was on a five-game winning streak before the loss. Their record drops to 13-8 with the loss. Chicago pitches Vincent Velasquez against the Angels Jose Suarez. The White Sox are a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Cleveland visits Oakland at 4:07 PM ET. The Indians send out Shane Bieber to pitch against the A’s Cole Irvin. Cleveland is a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Minnesota at 4:10 PM ET. Shane McClaughlin pitches for the Rays against the Twins’ Chris Archer. Tampa Bay is a -155 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 8.Seattle travels to Miami at 6:10 PM ET. The Mariners pitch Robbie Ray against Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. Seattle is a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 7. San Diego plays at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET. Sean Manaea is the starting pitcher for the Padres. He faces J.T. Brubaker of the Pirates. San Diego is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. Boston plays at Baltimore. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the Orioles’ Spenser Watkins. Both teams are priced as -110 money line favorites, with William Hill listing the total at 9. Atlanta is at Texas. Bryce Elder pitches for the Braves against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorites with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers send out Eric Lauer to pitch against the Cubs’ Justin Steele. Milwaukee is a -150 money line with a total of 8. The New York Yankees play at Kansas City. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Carlos Hernandez of the Royals. New York is a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Mets host Philadelphia in the nightcap on FS1. The Mets tool the first game of this series on Friday when five pitchers combined for a no-hitter in a 3-0 victory. They raised their record to 15-6. The Phillies had their four-game winning streak end with the loss. Taijuan Walker pitches for New York against Kyle Gibson for Philadelphia. The Mets are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Colorado plays at home against Cincinnati at 8:10 PM ET. The Rockies send out Chad Kuhl to pitch against Conner Overton. Colorado is a -170 money line favorite at William Hill with an over/under of 11. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Detroit at 10:10 PM ET. Clayton Kershaw pitches for the Dodgers against Beau Briske for the Tigers. Los Angeles is a -320 money line favorite with a total of 8.Matchweek 35 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Liverpool travels to Newcastle United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Four matches start at 10 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts Norwich City on CNBC as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Crystal Palace plays at Southampton in a pick ‘em match on Peacock with an over/under of 2.5. Burnley visits Watford on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion is at Wolverhampton on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2. Manchester City plays at Leeds United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

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Draft Report: D-e-f-e-n-s-e!

by Ben Burns

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

You often hear that "defense wins championships" but when was the last time you can remember the first five picks in the NFL Draft all going on the defensive side of the ball? That's what happened last night. We have to all the way back to 1991 to find the last time that the top five picks were all defensive players. Let's take a closer look at some of this year's top stories. #1 OVERALLThe Jaguars got things started by selecting Travon Walker with the first overall pick. While he wasn't orignally expected to go this high, the 272 pound defensive end from Georgia has excellent athleticism and he moved up on the draft boards late.  Recall that the Jags elected to go with QB Trevor Lawrence with the #1 overall pick last year. ROUNDING OUT THE TOP FIVEThe Lions got Aidan Hutchinson with the #2 pick. The defensive lineman from Michigan had previously been projected #1. He led the Big Ten in sacks. Houston's #3 pick was used to secure the first defensive back selected in the draft; Derek Stingley Jr. While he had six interceptions in his freshman season, the LSU cornerback only played three games last year. The Jets had a strong draft and it began with getting Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner with the fourth overall pick. The AAC Defensive Player Of The Year in 2021, Gardner didn't allow a receiving TD in his three years of college. Kayvon Thibodeaux out of Oregon, the fifth straight defensive player chosen, bolsters the Giants' pass rushing skills. TOP QBThe Steelers needed a QB and they grabbed the first one in the Draft with the #21 pick overall. Local product Kenny Pickett had 49 starts for Pittsburgh. He holds all kinds of Pittsburgh (and ACC) records and is expected to be ready to challenge for the starting job sooner, rather than later. Mike Tomlin commented: "We circled the globe -- or at least the United States -- here the last several months, man, just exploring and researching. And it's funny, we ended up with a guy from next door." Pickett, for his part, added: "I'm pretty familiar with the area code. I had a pretty good idea of who it was. I was speechless. It's a lifelong dream, 23 years of hard work to get to this point. That all came in a phone call. It was probably one of the best feelings of my life. I'm so excited to get started and get to work with the guys who are next door to me my whole career in Pittsburgh."BIG DEALThe Titans and Eagles pulled off the big trade of the night. Philadelphia picked up receiver A.J. Brown in exchange for the #18 overall pick.SURPRISE We've learned not to question Belichick. He's certainly earned the benefit of the doubt. Still, many were surprised to see the Patriots pick Cole Strange with their first pick. The guard out of Chattanooga may well turn out to be a decent player. However, most felt he could have been picked up later on. Sean McVay laughed out loud at the selection. REMEMBERING 1991The first six picks of the 1991 Draft were all on the defensive side of the ball. The first overall pick was Russel Maryland, who went to Dallas. While some had very solid careers, arguably, none of those six ended up being a "superstar." Seven of the first nine picks were defensive players and the other two were offensive tackles. Time will tell how this year's draft picks turn out. All I know, is that I'm already itching for some football. 

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April National League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

April National League Overachievers With a month of the season underway there is enough pitching data to draw some early conclusions and the marketplace will start to adjust to the current season numbers more than history and reputation. In a four-start sample several starters have had fortunate results however and here are four NL starters that could see adjustments in their upcoming outings.   Drew Smyly – Chicago Cubs:  The Cubs have competed reasonably well in the first month this season with a positive scoring differential and the pitching has been capable with Smyly off to a solid start to the 2022 season. Smyly has bounced around significantly in recent years without sustained success but wound up in the right spot last season as a contributor for the World Series champion Braves. That led to a one-year deal with the Cubs that so far has paid off with a 2.79 ERA in four starts.  Smyly has a K/9 of only 6.1 this season while he has had unusual ground ball success this season at nearly 55 percent compared with a career average of around 37 percent for a huge difference. Smyly has the best strand rate in the NL at this point in the season as more than 97 percent of his base runners have failed to score and his CSW% below 27 percent that is the lowest of his career at this point in 2022 despite his solid conventional line through four starts. Smyly has allowed four home runs in last two starts as things are likely going to head in the wrong direction moving forward.  Julio Urias – Los Angeles Dodgers: Urias was a slight overachiever last season going 20-3 in 32 starts with a 2.96 ERA despite a 3.73 xFIP. His career xFIP is 4.10, more than run higher than his career ERA but the gap in those numbers is more than two runs at this point in 2022, with a 2.50 ERA compared to a 4.51 xFIP. Fading the Dodgers will always be difficult, but compared to the other options in the rotation, Urias looks beatable for several opposing lineups.  Urias faced struggling Cincinnati and Arizona in his two most successful starts this season and he has a 7.5 K/9 and a 4.0 BB/9 so far in the 2022 season, hardly elite figures that would suggest a front-line starter that Urias will often be valued as. Urias is only 25 and has a bright future but he has managed a .170 BABIP so far this season as a lot of things have gone right in the first month.  Dakota Hudson – St. Louis Cardinals:  Hudson has been lucky so far in 2022 with a 2.75 ERA built on a .180 BABIP through four starts. His xFIP is 4.48, right in-line with his career average but he has managed to get away with a high walk count and a low strikeout rate this season. Hudson has always been an effective ground ball pitcher but so far this season his ground ball rate would be the lowest of his career. Hudson has topped 40 innings in an MLB season just once in his career back in 2019 and he is likely to be an erratic option as the season moves on. Hudson has a CSW% of below 25 percent, a rate that will be among the worst of NL starters by season’s end and right near 25% has been the career norm for Hudson whether as a starter or a reliever. St. Louis looks like a playoff threat in the NL with a solid first month from the offense, but Hudson is not in the same class as the rest of the rotation even if the early season numbers are right there at first glance. Sandy Alcantara – Miami Marlins:  Alcantara has been deserving of a breakthrough season, 22-34 in his career despite elite potential pitching for typically lousy Marlins teams. This year Miami looks like a group that can compete and so far, Alcantara has a 1.78 ERA. He is going to face steep pricing moving forward even through the current clip is not likely sustainable. Alcantara was a dramatically worse pitcher in his road starts last season and in 2022 his two road starts have been favorable pairings.  Alcantara has stranded nearly 85 percent of his baserunners this season and has only allowed one home run after allowing 21 last season and only stranding 72 percent of baserunners in 2021. Alcantara’s xFIP is 3.94 in 2022, with a career xFIP of 4.31. His strikeout rate so far in 2022 is down from the past two seasons while his BB/9 is as high as it has been since 2019. Alcantara is one of the better NL starters, but he may start to be valued as one of the very best, which just hasn’t been the case this season or in his career. 

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April American League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

April American League Overachievers With a month of the season underway there is enough pitching data to draw some early conclusions and the marketplace will start to adjust to the current season numbers more than history and reputation. In a four-start sample, several starters have had fortunate results however and here are four AL starters that could see adjustments in their upcoming outings.  Michael Wacha – Boston Red Sox: An instant star early in his career with the Cardinals, postingseveral great starts in the 2013 postseason before St. Louis lost to Boston inthe World Series, Wacha was an upper tier NL starter for several seasons.Things have fallen apart for Wacha now with his fourth team in four seasons.Wacha graded as one of the least successful starters in MLB from 2019-2021including posting just three wins over 23 starts with a 5.05 ERA with Tampa Baylast year. Wacha is only 30 years old as it makes sense for teams to continueto take a chance on him as Boston did with a one-year contract. So far, theresults have been promising with a 1.77 ERA in four starts and a 2-0 record indecisions. Wacha has just a 7.5 K/9 however and a 4.0 BB/9 that would be thehighest of his career. He has stranded nearly 93 percent of his base runnersand has a .154 BABIP so far this season compared to a .300 career average. Ashis 4.00 FIP suggests, the current pace for Wacha is unsustainable. Jordan Montgomery – New York Yankees: The Yankees lead the AL East with a 13-6 start and the pitchingstaff has excelled with some of the better numbers in MLB through the firstmonth of the season. Montgomery has been an important piece of that successwith a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings of work, even though he is winless. Montgomeryhas benefitted from facing Baltimore in two of his starts while also posting astrong outing vs. a light hitting Tigers lineup. Montgomery had average results last season for New York in over157 innings and a season line like last season is likely the ceiling for theleft-hander at age 29. The April success for Montgomery has come with the worstK/9 of his career at 6.8 while his xFIP of 4.16 looks much more realistic thanhis current 2.70 ERA. The Yankees should not count on Montgomery being amainstay in the rotation all season if they want to stay on top of the AL Eastand the opportunity to fade New York at an elevated price may be there whenMontgomery’s takes his turns in the rotation in May. New York has a pair of serieseach with Toronto and Chicago in May, both teams that hit left-handersextremely well. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals: A closing stop in Kansas City should be a nice way to end aremarkable career for Greinke; a storybook 2022 season is however not likely tocontinue for Greinke who has had some great early season fortune. Greinke hasnever been reliant on elite strikeout rates, but his current K/9 is 2.5compared to his career average of 8.1. Greinke has pitched exclusively in theAL Central in his four starts this season as there will be tougher matchupswaiting as the schedule moves on for the Royals. Greinke has a 4.75 xFIP next to his 2.86 ERA and he has so farallowed only one home run in 22 innings, after he allowed 30 home runs in 171innings last season pitching for Houston. Greinke has had his lowest groundball rate this season since 2007 as more home runs are likely to happen in hisfuture starts and unless Greinke can start to generate a few more strikeouts,it will be difficult for the Royals to count on Greinke to be a leader in therotation. The pricing to fade the Royals won’t often be appealing but Greinkestarts may be worth an ‘over’ look, particularly in a May schedule for KansasCity that features several formidable offenses. Cal Quantrill – Cleveland Guardians: Quantrill pitched well over his head last season in nearly 150innings for Cleveland going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA. That was with a mediocre K/9of 7.3 and his xFIP of 4.43 was almost exactly his career average despite thebig improvement over his career ERA. This season Quantrill has a 5.15 xFIPagainst a 3.27 ERA as he again is overachieving. His groundball rate has beenjust 37 percent so far this season for by far a career low and his CSW% is justover 23 percent, among the worst of any AL starter at this point in the season. Quantrillwas a 1st round pick in 2016 but he doesn’t have a first-round secondary pitchesand his current BABIP of .221 will be hard to sustain. Quantrill has only 10strikeouts this season in 22 innings while also walking 10 batters. Despite astrong 3.27 ERA at this point in the season Quantrill has allowed at least tworuns in all four of his starts as he has not had a dominant outing and he hashad great fortune to only surrender one home run at this point in the season.With the Cleveland offense off to a decent start, the ‘over’ may be worth alook in upcoming Quantrill outings. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/29/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 29, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with one game in the first round of the playoffs. Memphis travels to Minnesota on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Grizzlies took a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 111-109 victory against the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Memphis is a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 229 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Fifteen games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Seven games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at home against Columbus as a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Buffalo is at home against Chicago as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Toronto hosts Boston as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida visits Montreal as a -280 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. New Jersey plays at home against Detroit as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers are at home against Washington as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Philadelphia is at home against Ottawa as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Tampa Bay plays at New York against the Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Three more NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. St. Louis hosts Vegas as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Colorado travels to Minnesota as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Calgary is at Winnipeg as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Dallas plays at home against Anaheim at 8:37 PM ET as a -235 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Edmonton hosts Vancouver at 9:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Seattle is at home against San Jose at 10:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Nashville visits Arizona at 10:37 PM ET as a -285 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. San Diego plays at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Seattle is at Miami at 6:40 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston travels to Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Toronto hosts Houston at 7:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Tampa Bay plays at home against Minnesota as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets are at home against Philadelphia as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Chicago White Sox host the Los Angeles Angels as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta visits Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees play at Kansas City as a -210 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Milwaukee plays at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. St. Louis is at home against Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7. Colorado hosts Cincinnati at 8:40 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Oakland plays at home against Cleveland at 9:40 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Detroit at 10:10 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. San Francisco hosts Washington at 10:15 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/28/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 28, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues the conference quarterfinals with three in the first round of the playoffs. Philadelphia visits Toronto on NBA-TV at 7 PM ET. The Raptors won Game 5 in a 103-88 upset victory as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. The 76ers still hold a 3-2 lead in this best-of-seven series. Philadelphia is a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 209.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Phoenix plays at New Orleans in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:30 PM ET. The Suns took a 3-2 lead in this series with their 112-97 victory as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.Dallas travels to Utah in the nightcap on TNT at 10 PM ET. The Mavericks have a 3-2 lead in the series after beating the Jazz, 102-77, as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Dallas is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 210.5.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for five games. Boston hosts Buffalo as a -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Florida is at Ottawa as a -220 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Carolina host New Jersey as a -250 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at Columbus as a -260 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Washington visits New York to play the Islanders as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary travels to Minnesota at 8:07 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. Colorado hosts Nashville as a -295 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Edmonton plays at home against San Jose as a -320 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vancouver is a home against Los Angeles at 10:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has 12 games. The first pitch gets thrown for two games at 12:35 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against San Diego as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Milwaukee plays at Pittsburgh as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Three MLB games start at 1:05 PM ET. Philadelphia hosts Colorado as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 7. Miami visits Washington as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Baltimore as a -220 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Seattle at 1:10 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston travels to Texas at 2:05 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Toronto hosts Boston at 3:07 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against Cleveland at 4:07 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta hosts the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 8. St. Louis is at home against Arizona at 7:45 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League concludes with one match on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET. Chelsea plays at Manchester United as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Ness Notes: Early Look at 2022

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Apr 28, 2022

The 2022 MLB season enters its fourth week on Thursday (Opening Day was Thursday, April 7th) and here's a few "random thoughts." Few, if any, still consider baseball "America's Pastime'' but there is something about MLB and its history that can still gain national attention. That was the case last weekend when Miguel Cabrera joined the 3,000-hit club on Saturday, becoming the 33rd member of that exclusive club. What's more, he became just the SEVENTH member of the 3,000-hit, 500-HR club, joining Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Rafael Palmeiro, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Eddie Murray. Most impressively, Cabrera is just the THIRD player to reach 3,000 hits, top 500 HRs AND own a lifetime BA of over .300. He joins Hank Aaron (.305, 3,771 hits and 755 HRs) and Willie Mays (.302, 3,283 and 660). Through games played Wednesday, Cabrera's 'triple crown' line sits at .310, 3,002 and 502).Albert Puljos is the only other active player in the 3,000-hit, 500-HR club and at 42, is playing the final season of his career. His rookie season with the Cardinals was 2001 and he hit over .300 in each of his first 10 years (low of .312 and a high of .359), while also driving in 100-plus runs in all 10 (average of 123 per season). He also hit 403 HRs in that time frame. The Cards won the World Series in 2006 and then again in 2011, when Pujols failed to hit .300 for the first time (.299 with 42 HRs and 118 RBI). He became a free agent for the first time in his career after 2011 and decided to not take the Cards' offer (reportedly a 10-year, $210 million deal with $30 million deferred. He instead signed a 10-year deal with the Angels worth around $254 million. I think all know how that worked out. After averaging 40 HRs/year through his first 11 seasons, Puljos only reached the 40-HR mark ONCE while with the Angels (hit 40 HRs in 2015) and after batting .285 in his first season with them (2012), he never came close to hitting .300. He hit .256 as an Angel from 2012-2021 with 222 HRs. Pujols signed a one-year contract to return to the St Louis Cardinals back on March 28, 2022, announcing that 2022 would be his final season. We'll see how the season plays out but the saying "You can never go home again," comes to mind. Through the season's first three weeks, Pujols has played in nine games, batting .259 with two HRs and four RBI.That said, we should take a moment to appreciate both Cabrera and Pujols. Cabrera is 39 and will likely play beyond this season but as noted, Pujols is 'walking away' after the 2022 season. At the moment, his 681 HRs rank 5th all-time, his 2,135 RBI rank third and his 3,308 hits rank 12th. Cabrera joined the 3,000-hit club last Saturday but It's going to be a while until we see another player join the 3,000-hit club. There are only FIVE active players with 2,000 hits, INCLUDING Pujols and Cabrera. Robinson Cano (2,631 hits) is 39, Yadier Molina (2,117) is retiring this fall and Joey Votto (2,035) is 38. The Mariners and Dodgers opened the 2022 season as MLB's biggest 'streakers.' Seattle finished second in the American League West in 2021 with a 90-72 record, just two games out of a wild-card berth. That extended Seattle's postseason drought (the longest active one in MLB) to 20 years, as the Mariners last made the playoffs back in 2001. Ironically, that team won 116 games, tying a MLB record for most wins in a single season (one COULDN'T make that up!). Seattle also finished as MLB's best moneyline team in 2021 (+$3,670 at $100/game), barely edging out the 107-win Giants ($3,626). It may come as a surprise that the 76-85 Tigers were the third-best moneyline team (+$2,303), dwarfing the 106-win Dodgers, who finished -$73 at $100/game. The Dodgers saw their streak of EIGHT consecutive NL West titles end in 2021 but they entered the 2022 season having made the postseason NINE straight seasons, the longest-active streak in MLB.Let me check in on some other active streaks, both good and bad. I'll start with the bad. The Phillies have missed the postseason for 10 straight years, while the Angels and Tigers have failed to make the playoffs in each of the last SEVEN. The Angels won the franchise's only World Series title back in 2002 but I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). Note the Angels own two of the biggest and brightest stars in the game in Ohtani (2021 MVP in the AL) and Mike Trout. Ohtani hit 46 HRs with 100 RBI and 26 SBs in 2091, while going 14-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 156 Ks in 130.1 IP. All Trout has accomplished is finishing among the top-5 in the MVP voting in each of his first NINE seasons, winning in 2014, 2016 and 2019. Trout played in just 36 games last season and didn't play at all after May 17! The Pirates and Royals have each sat out the postseason for the last SIX years. KC deserves a mention in that the Royals played in back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost to the Giants 4-3) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but six playoff-less seasons have followed. The 2016 team went 81-81 and the 2017 went 81-81. However, the last four seasons have seen KC go 217-329 (.397). KC fans may be sensing some "deja vu," as after the 1985 team won the franchise's first World Series crown, the Royals didn't make the playoffs again until 2014 (that's a span of 28 years!).As noted, the Dodgers own the longest-active postseason run at NINE but playoff success had been lacking for this legendary franchise, as the team's 2020 World Series win came in a season in which  MLB played a 60-game schedule due to COVID. It still counts but the Dodgers hadn't won a World Series since 1988 ('crickets' from 1989 thru 2019!). The Astros and Yankees have the second-longest active streaks at five in a row. The Astros remain the team everyone 'loves to hate' because of the team's "sign-stealing" scandal. However, Houston has made the World Series in THREE of the last five years. Houston won the 2017 World Series (over the Dodgers), lost the 2019 World Series (to the Nats) and then lost it again last season to the Braves. The Yankees are MLB's most famous and successful franchise (27 World Series titles) but since winning FOUR World Series titles in a five-year span (1996-2000), the Yankees lone World Series win came back in 2009. It HAS to 'kill' Yankee fans that in the past 21 seasons, the-hated Red Sox have won four World Series (2004, 2007, 2013 and 2018) and the Giants have won three (2012, 2014 and 2016). MLB 2022 (Three Weeks In).Despite no Jacob deGrom, the Mets own MLB's best record at 14-6 (first team to play 20 games) and have captured all of the SIX series they've played. For every Yin, there has to be a Yang, and that would be the Cincinnati Reds. Cincy lost 11 straight from April 12-23, scoring a total of 20 runs in that span (note: The Reds scored two or less runs in the final eight losses of that streak). The Reds check in at 3-15 and also own MLB's worst moneyline mark (-$1,041). Arizona pulled off that unwanted 'daily double' in 2021, going 52-110 and -$3.941. The D'backs aren't 'lighting it up' in the early going but are off to an 8-11 (.421) start, after playing .321 baseball last season. Watch out Cincy fane, the Reds' winning percentage (if you radon the pun) is .167.Where do things stand after just three weeks around the two leagues? The 12-6 Yankees lead the AL East over the 12-7 Blue Jays and 10-8 Rays (Tampa Bay has won this division each of the last two seasons). The Twins went just 73-89 in 2021 (20 games behind the division-winning White Sox), after winning the AL Central in 2019 and 2020. Minnesota is back atop the division after three weeks, at 10-8. The White Sox ended an 11-year postseason drought in 2020 with a wild card appearance. They then ran away with the American League Central title last season with a 93-69 record, winning the division by 13 games. Chicago expected even more in 2022 but just ended an eight-game losing streak Wednesday night and check in at 8-10. The Angels have missed the postseason for SEVEN straight years (2014) but lead the AL West at 12-7. Seattle is hoping to end its 20-year postseason drought and is 11-7. Meanwhile, the Astros (winners of the division in FOUR of the last five seasons) are just 9-9.Over in the NL, the 14-6 Mets lead the East and the defending World Champion Braves are just 8-11 (Braves have won the East the last four seasons). As noted earlier, the Phillies have missed 10 consecutive postseason and are off to a 9-10 start. The Brewers lead the Central at 12-7, with the Cards checking in at 10-7. The Giants ended the Dodgers run of EIGHT consecutive NL West titles last season (Giants had 107 wins to the Dodgers 106) and many thought that was a fluke. However, the Giants are 13-6 and the Dodgers 12-6. The Giants played .660 baseball in winning 107 games in 2021 and right now are playing .684. Let me close with a note on the Dodgers. LA won its first five home games of the 2022 season, before losing 3-1 to the Braves on April 19. That ended a streak of 20 consecutive regular season home wins by LA, going back to a home loss in August of 2021 (August 29th, to be exact). Which team beat LA in that game? Naturally, the Braves.I'll check back on the current MLB season come Memorial Day.Good luck...Larry

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