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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 4, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, May 04, 2023

It's about time the home teams did their jobs in the postseason.The Boston Celtics, Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights restored faith in their hometown bases, all three winning decisively to cover their respective numbers.Road teams went into Wednesday on a 33-19 roll in the NHL Playoffs after they opened the second round 2-0 on Tuesday. But the Hurricanes and Golden Knights outclassed New Jersey and Edmonton, respectively.The most shocking element from last night's NHL action might have been in Las Vegas, where Edmonton's Leon Draisaitl scored four goals in the loss. It marked the second straight night a player on the losing playoff team scored four goals, as Joe Pavelski accomplished the feat for Dallas on Tuesday.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, but after the totals split Tuesday and the Under extended its run to 15-9, both NHL games went high last night. The record for Overs in the NHL postseason is now at 29-24-1.Meanwhile, Vegas helped improve underdogs to a 26-28 mark in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of more than $900 ($915 at DraftKings).Neither game went into overtime, leaving the overall tally at 15 overtime games this postseason. Road teams are 12-3 in those games.Went 3-0 on Wednesday, including a 2-0 sweep in Major League Baseball. And one of those two winners was my Interleague Dog of the Month on the Diamondbacks against Texas. Part of my lineup for Thursday is another MLB Dog Winner, as I have a DIVISION DOG that is wrongly priced and highly underrated. I'm on an overall run of 56-36 for $18,180 since 4/17, including a 15-10 MLB run since 4/19 for $4,530. Jump on board for this DIVISION DOG OF THE MONTH.In the NBA, only one game on the card, and the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, who got the NBA MVP back in the lineup.Boston’s 121-87 win over Philadelphia last night was the 50th game of this year’s postseason, and it marked only the fourth contest to be decided by more than 20 points.Only one game on the card today, with the Los Angeles Lakers still in San Francisco for their Western Conference semifinals against defending NBA champion Golden State.And the Warriors are looking to avoid falling into a 2-0 hole for the second consecutive series, after doing so against the Sacramento Kings in the opening round.I have the SIDE and TOTAL for tonight's NBA game bundled in one package for you. Don't miss this 2-for-1 special, as I'm on a 29-15 NBA run for a net profit of $12,400 since 4/18.How wild was MLB action yesterday?Three pitchers made their MLB debuts as the starter on Wednesday, and all three teams won.Washington ushered Jake Irvin to the hill, and the Nats beat the Cubs, 2-1.Arizona handed the ball to Brandon Pfaadt for his career debut, and the Snakes beat the Rangers, 12-7.Finally, the Dodgers turned to young right-hander Gavin Stone, and what a marathon that was. Los Angeles fell behind early to the Phillies, 5-0. The Dodgers let the Phils tie it in the top of the ninth, 6-6. And in dramatic fashion in the most picturesque MLB stadium, Max Muncy delivered the first pitch he saw to the rightfield stands for a walk-off grand slam.Can't imagine being one who held a ticket on the Phils.On the contrary, I gave you both the Diamondbacks and Dodgers on Wednesday. Today it's just one MLB winner, and it goes early. Don't miss out.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/04/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 04, 2023

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with one playoff game in the conference semifinals on ESPN. The Golden State Warriors host the Los Angeles Lakers at 9 PM ET. The Lakers took a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with a 117-112 upset win on the road against the Warriors as a 4.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Warriors are a 6-point favorite with the total set at 227.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).  The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two games in the conference semifinals on TNT. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Florida Panthers at 7:10 PM ET. The Panthers took Game 1 of this best-of-seven series with a 4-2 victory on Tuesday. The Maple Leafs are a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Seattle Kraken at 9:40 PM ET. The Kraken have a 1-0 series lead after their 5-4 victory on Tuesday. The Stars are a -195 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has 10 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs travel to Washington to play the Nationals at 1:05 PM ET as a -210 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 PM ET. The New York Mets play in Detroit against the Tigers as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -180 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. St. Louis plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:15 PM ET as a -145 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. The Baltimore Orioles visit Kansas City against the Royals as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Minnesota Twins play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET as a -140 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Seattle Mariners travel to Oakland to play the A’s at 3:37 PM ET as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins are at home against the Atlanta Braves at 4:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays play in Boston against the Red Sox at 6:10 PM ET as a -165 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League concludes with Brighton and Hove Albion playing at home against Manchester United on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. Brighton comes off a 6-0 victory at home against Wolverhampton on Saturday. Man United beat Aston Villa, 1-0, on Sunday, Brighton is a -0.5 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 3, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, May 03, 2023

The postseason road warriors continued to haunt home crowds Tuesday night.After road teams went 31-19 in the opening round, to set an NHL record for most wins by the visitors in any round, both guests won Tuesday.The Florida Panthers (+155) and Seattle Kraken (+180) shocked most by winning Game 1 of their second-round openers against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Dallas Stars, respectively.The Panthers, fresh off overcoming a 3-1 series deficit to eliminate the overall No. 1 seed Boston Bruins, took an early 2-0 lead in Toronto before pulling away from a 2-2 tie with goals from Carter Verhaeghe and Brandon Montour to take a 1-0 series lead.Florida has now won four straight road games in the postseason.Second-year franchise Seattle, fresh off their series win over the reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche, overcame two first-period deficits to take a 4-2 lead out of the opening stanza.Dallas' Joe Pavelski scored his third and fourth goals of the game in the third period to help send the game into overtime, but it was Yanni Gourde with an unassisted goal at the 12:17 mark in the extra period to give the Kraken a 1-0 series lead and home ice the rest of the way.The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, but after the totals splitting Tuesday, we've now seen the Under cash in 15 of the last 24 playoff games.Underdogs improved to 25-27 in the postseason, with a $100 wager on the pups turning a profit of more than $900 ($915 at DraftKings).There have now been 15 overtime games played in the postseason, and road teams are 12-3 in those games.I'm on a 53-36 run since April 17, with a NET$ of $15,080 in all sports. That includes a 4-2 mark with my 1st Round Plays of the Year on ice. I'm on an 85-76-2 run in the NHL since the start of the season, with a NET$ of $11,850. Tonight I'm unloading on one of the two hockey games for my 2ND ROUND CONFERENCE GAME OF YEAR.In the NBA, after the New York Knicks avoided destruction by coming from behind at home to defeat the Miami Heat and tie the series at 1-1, the Los Angeles Lakers struck the first blow in their series opener against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.Both underdogs covered, as the Heat caught +10 points and lost 111-105, but the Lakers (+4) won outright in San Francisco, 117-112.Anthony Davis had 30 points, 23 rebounds, five assists and four blocked shots, while LeBron James added 22 points and 11 rebounds.Scary part for the Warriors is James’ 23 points were his third-fewest in 23 playoff games against the Warriors.James said it best, explaining how the Lakers have been in postseason mode."We’ve been playing playoff basketball for about 2 1/2 months now just to punch our clock to be able to play right now in the postseason," he told reporters after the game.One key takeaway that allowed the Lakers to cover for the fourth time in five games, was their paint dominance, outscoring Golden State in the area, 32-12.

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Big Al's 2023 Kentucky Derby Preview

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, May 03, 2023

After 2022 when an 80-1 horse -- who wasn't even in the field until a couple of days before the race -- crossed the finish line first, the question for the 149th Kentucky Derby is simply what will it do for an encore?  With a pretty wide-open field of runners only one thing appears certain: there won't be an 80-1 winner this Saturday.  And that's not to say that the longest shot in the starting gate doesn't have a chance, but rather that the "Rich Strike Effect" as it's been known to be called now, will ensure that every horse in the field gets bet to some extent.  So with that, here is a preview of some of the field for the most exciting two minutes in sports -- including the contenders, pretenders, and live longshots. Contenders: #15 - Forte.  The most accomplished horse in the race will deserve to the be the favorite come post time.  The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Violence has done little wrong in his career and an exciting Florida Derby win cemented his status as the one to beat.  But that doesn't mean there aren't reasons to take a stand against Forte.  For one thing, his running style -- while fine for a race like the the one at Gulfstream Park with 11 horses -- is not generally conducive to the Kentucky Derby.  Forte might be near the back of the pack early on, and that means having to navigate his way through a much larger field than any he's faced before.  He could win, but at a likely price of around 5-2, it might not be worth jumping on board to find out. #5 - Tapit Trice.  Another Pletcher trainee, this grey son of Tapit is likely to get you twice the odds of his stable mate.  But he took an easier road to the Derby than Forte, winning the Tampa Bay Derby and Toyota Blue Grass in his prior two races and winners of those generally don't come back to win the Derby.  Plus Tapit Trice is even slower early on in his races than Forte is, so you will have the same concerns with him regarding traffic and his ability to navigate his way home.  Add to that his post position being on the inside and he could have a lot more horses crowding him around the first turn.  But you can't deny his talent and he has seemingly gotten better with every race.  No one would blame you if you said Tapit Trice was your horse at a likely 5-1 closing odds.#14 - Angel of Empire.  The only trainer with more bullets in his holster this weekend than Pletcher is Brad Cox, who will send four horses to post on Saturday.  Of these, the standout is this son of Classic Empire.  Like Forte and Tapit Trice, he's done almost nothing wrong in getting here and you could argue that he's faced tougher competition in better races than those two.  It's hard to separate his performances from those of Forte but you'll be getting better odds on Angel of Empire, so that may make the decision easier.  There's been buzz on the track in the mornings due to Angel of Empire's impressive workouts and he likely will be bet below his 8-1 odds.  If there was concern that he's a cheap ($70K) PA-bred he's put those to rest by now.  And besides, we remember a PA-bred who did pretty well here a while ago (Smarty Jones). Pretenders (likely over-bet horses): #17 - Derma Sotogake.  The Japanese invader has garnered a ton of interest since winning the UAE Derby in dominating style back in March.  Many are saying he may be the horse that finally breaks the curse of winners coming over from that Dubai race and in fact he may get bet like it as well.  The problem is that there IS such a drought and the numbers are quite staggering.  Winners of the UAE Derby are 0 for 18 in the Run for the Roses and in two previous tries by Japanese runners, the best finish was Master Fencer who came in sixth after the Maximum Security DQ in 2019.  Some are saying this horse could be different.  Let's see it first before we commit our dollars at the windows.#6 - Kingsbarns.  He's an undefeated Pletcher runner with a 12-1 morning line.  Think he'll get bet?  Of course he will and his final odds will probably be below 10-1.  That may sound like a bargain, but the problem is two-fold.  The first is that he's too lightly raced with only three starts to his credit and none as a two-year old last year.  The second -- and probably bigger -- problem is that he just looks too slow.  He won the Louisiana Derby in his last race in gate-to-wire fashion but he faced a field of slow horses and the split times that he ran would put him well back in this field.  Like many Pletcher runners who aren't fully developed this time of year, Kingsbarns may have a bright future, but it will likely be later this year and beyond -- not on Saturday.#10 - Practical Move.  Not that long ago, horses from California were coming to Kentucky and owning the Derby.  But most of those were the result of one trainer -- Bob Baffert.  And Baffert showed he could take his horses away from the West Coast and win with them in Derby preps in Arkansas, Illinois, and other places.  Practical Move has run all his preps in California, and that's by design.  His trainer Tim Yakteen is based there and runs almost exclusively in the Golden State.  His record when he ships to other places is much worse than it is in his home base.  But this son of Practical Joke will get plenty of interest on Saturday as he won the premier event in California, the Santa Anita Derby and because he has the proper running style for the race.  He won't be a favorite for the win money but will be heavily used in the exotics.Live Longshots: #2 - Verifying.  The likely second-most bet Brad Cox runner battled like a champ with Tapit Trice all the way down the stretch in the Blue Grass only to lose by a nose.  But that loss may have unveiled a bona-fide star in the making.  This sun of Justify has gotten better with every race and if he does his Blue Grass performance one better, he should be right there on Saturday.  He also gets Churchill's leading rider of late, Tyler Gaffalione, and that's another plus in his column.  And he's been turning heads big time in his morning workouts.  So what's the problem?  His post position draw of #2 in a 20 horse field is horrible.  He may be fast enough to be near the lead but not on it and that could put him in a very difficult position.  But Verifying is 15-1 and with that #2 post, his odds could go up from there making him a very tempting proposition.#11 - Disarm.  In years past we've heard about the exploits of Steve Asmussen and the fact that despite being North America's winningest trainer, he's 0-for-twenty something in the Derby.  Last year turning for home it appeared Epicenter would give him his first blanket of roses but it was not to be.  So this year with only one horse in the race -- and a 30-1 outsider at that -- hardly anyone is talking about him.  And Asmussen just might prefer it this way.  But this son of Gun Runner who needed a third place finish in the recent Lexington Stakes just to get enough points to be here should not be dismissed.  He just might have the longest stride of any horse in the field and that could serve him very well on Saturday.  Leave him out of your exactas and trifectas at your own risk.#4 - Confidence Game.  More people familiar with racing have no doubt heard of jockey Kent Desormeaux than his brother the trainer.  But it's Keith and not Kent who will have a hand in this year's Derby with this son of Candy Ride.  He only cost $25,000 at auction and he went on to win the Grade II Rebel Stakes. So Confidence Game's owners -- how can you not root for a group called "Don't Tell My Wife Stables" -- are playing with house money at this point.  You'll get every bit of his 20-1 odds come post time and jockey James Graham has been known to ride a longshot or two to victory in Kentucky before.  If the track comes up muddy or sloppy on Saturday, elevate this one in your wagering.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 03, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with one playoff game in the conference semifinals on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers at 8 PM ET. The 76ers took the opening game of this seven-game series with their 119-115 upset victory as a 10.5-point underdog. The Celtics are a 10-point favorite with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with two opening games in the conference semifinals on ESPN. The Carolina Hurricanes play at home against the New Jersey Devils at 7:10 PM ET. The Hurricanes finished their opening-round series with the New York Islanders with a 2-1 victory on the road on Friday to win that game in six games. The Devils beat the New York Rangers, 4-0, in Game 7 of their opening-round series on Sunday. Carolina is a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Edmonton Oilers travel to Vegas to play the Golden Knights at 9:40 PM ET. The Oilers beat the Los Angeles Kings, 5-4, on Saturday to win that series in six games. The Golden Knights defeated the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday by a 4-1 score to end that series in five games. Edmonton is a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The New York Mets travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:40 PM ET in the opening game of their doubleheader. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 2:05 PM ET as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the San Francisco Giants at 2:10 PM ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The Philadelphia Phillies visit Los Angeles to play the Dodgers. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -260 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games start at 6:40 PM ET. The Atlanta Braves play in Miami against the Marlins as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -210 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Mets play against the Tigers in the second game of their doubleheader. Two more MLB games begin at 7:05 PM ET. The Cleveland Guardians are in New York to play the Yankees at 7:05 PM ET as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -195 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays visit Boston to play the Red Sox as a -145 money-line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Chicago White Sox hosts the Minnesota Twins as a -140 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play at Kansas City against the Royals as a -150 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels are in St. Louis to play the Cardinals as a -150 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 PM ET as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 12. The Seattle Mariners play in Oakland to play the A’s at 9:40 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with two matches at 3 PM ET. Liverpool hosts Fulham as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from DraftKings). Manchester City plays at home against West Ham United on the USA Network as a -2 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 2, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, May 02, 2023

Is Gerard Gallant going to get fired?It's the question many New York Rangers fans want to know after the New Jersey Devils thoroughly dominated the Blueshirts in a decisive 4-0 Game 7 win on Monday.A pick'em game, the Rangers saw a lot of the action to get the line -110 on each side, as the Devils opened a -120 favorite.On to the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, which begins tonight in Toronto and Dallas, but not before I send out of the first round with some things to chew on... The Panthers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to eliminate the team with the best regular-season record in NHL history. Seattle, a second-year franchise, dethroned the reigning Stanley Cup champions to win its first-ever playoff series Seven of eight teams advanced after facing a series deficit (tied for the most ever). Carolina is the only outlier. There was an average of 6.2 goals per game, trailing only 2022 (6.6) as the highest-scoring first-round in the past 28 years. The Over was 26-23-1 in the first round, but the Under cashed in 14 of the last 22 games. Road teams went 31-19 to set an NHL record for most wins by the visitors in any round. Underdogs went 23-27 in the first round, but a $100 wager on the underdog in all 50 games would have turned a profit of roughly $600. A total of 14 overtime games were played, and road teams went 11-3 in overtime. NBA WATCHWhile the Phoenix Suns may have fell in Denver by 10 to the Nuggets, dropping to 0-2 in the series, they may have lost even more with Chris Paul leaving the game with groin tightness. Could be over for the Suns, as the most consistent - and underestimated - team in the NBA continues to be the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic scored 39 points and pulled down 16 rebounds one night before we find out the NBA MVP. The Nuggets are now 5-2 ATS in the playoffs, including a 4-1 start in Denver. They're also on a 4-2-1 Over run in the postseason.In Monday's other game, Philadelphia stole homecourt advantage after James Harden hit a go-ahead, step-back 3-pointer over Al Horford with 8.7 seconds left to help the 76ers to a 119-115 victory over the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup. No Joel Embiid? No problem. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris combined to add 44 for the Sixers, who drained 17 3-pointers in the MVP finalist's absence. The Sixers are now 4-0-1 ATS in the postseason, while the Under remains 3-2 despite Game 1 soaring Over.Two games on the slate tonight, as the Heat and Knicks engage in Game 2, and the Lakers and Warriors open their series in San Francisco.MLB TEAMS IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONSThe New York Yankees' demise continued, as they lost their fourth straight, dropping a 3-2 decision at home to the Cleveland Guardians. The Pinstripes are struggling terribly at the plate during a 3-8 skid since April 21, hitting just .214 while averaging less than three runs per game. The Yankees have plated three or fewer runs in nine o those 11 games, and two or fewer in eight. Their pitching staff has a 4.88 ERA during that 11-game stretch. We're also looking at a 3-7-1 mark to the Under in those games, with the Yankees failing to score runs.Flipside from the left coast, the Los Angeles Dodgers are back where they seemingly belong, on top of the NL West thanks to a four-game win streak after last night's 13-4 destruction of the defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers have jumpstarted their offensive a bit after averaging 5.0 runs per game over their first 21 outings, as they're averaging 6.0 runs per game during a current 7-2 win streak. They've 15 home runs in that span, since April 22. The Over has cashed in seven times during the nine-game stretch.All teams are in action Tuesday, with 15 games on the schedule.

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Vegas Writer's Daily Recap - May 1, 2023

by Vegas Writer

Monday, May 01, 2023

Happy May Day!As we turn to the fifth month in 2023, so comes a new era for yours truly, as I usher in the VW Daily Recap, a quick synopsis of the previous day's action that encapsulates the entire card, points out the occasional bad beats, updates you on favorites and underdogs on the whole, and delivers an anecdote or two to take into the day with you.Consider it a bit of a column, as there will be some opinionated thoughts here and there. But overall, some added insight for with daily nutritional value to whet your appetite for your sports investment diet.Let's start this thing off in the postseason - both the NBA and NHL - where the road underdogs went a combined 4-0.The Miami Heat (+4') stole Game 1 of their Eastern Conference semifinal with the New York Knicks with a 108-101 victory, led by 25 points from Jimmy Butler. Miami's defense continues to impress, ranking second in the league in allowing just 109.8 points while limiting opponents to 48.2% shooting. The Heat are now 5-1 ATS as an underdog in the postseason, and have covered seven of eight when catching points dating back to the regular season. The Knicks continue to struggle offensively, as they're averaging a mere 99.8 points per game through six playoff games while shooting 43.8% from the floor, including 26.8% from 3-point range.The Golden State Warriors (+1') made a huge statement in Sacramento, trouncing the Sacramento Kings by 20. The betting market moved the number from Warriors -1 to the other side, and defending champs proved everyone wrong. Stephen Curry was as animated as he's ever been during a game en route to a playoff career-high 50 points in what was the most dominating performance of his career. The Warriors overcame an 0-2 series deficit to win four of the next five games - including two on the road - and snapped a three-game slide as an underdog by winning Sunday's game outright. Looking ahead to their next series, the Warriors have lost three straight to the Los Angeles Lakers - all in 2023.A $100 two-team moneyline parlay in both NHL Game 7s would have netted $726.50 (based on closing numbers at Draft Kings), as the Florida Panthers stunned the Boston Bruins in overtime and the Seattle Kraken ousted the defending champion Colorado Avalanche. Just how we drew it up, right?For the Panthers, who next meet Toronto, it was their offensive prowess throughout the series that sent them past the President's Trophy winner. Florida scored four or more goals in its four wins, averaging 5.2 goals per victory. It's their high-scoring ways to keep an eye on for their upcoming series with the Maple Leafs, as the Over is on a 10-4-1 run, including a 5-1-1 streak in Toronto. Make note, the home team has won 15 of the last 20 meetings.The Kraken got incredible play from their inspired goaltender, Philip Grubauer, a castoff from the Avalanche. Gru was left out to dry when the Kraken came into the league, and Seattle gladly signed him as a free agent. The Kraken slowed the Avs to pedestrian outcomes throughout the series, holding them to less than four goals in five games. Overall, the Kraken limited Colorado to 2.7 goals per game. The second-year franchise is just 2-4 against the Dallas Stars, whom it'll face in the conference semifinals, but did win the most recent meeting 5-4 in overtime on March 21.MLB DOG POUND - Sunday saw eight of 14 underdogs win. Betting $100 on each game, based on closing numbers at Draft Kings, an investor would have made $690. One of those underdogs, the Texas Rangers, handed the New York Yankees their third straight loss. The Pinstripes will try to right the ship as they return to the Bronx for a three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians before heading to Tampa to face the first-place Rays next weekend.The Miami Marlins were a nice money grab, as they won their fourth straight with a 4-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs. The Fish have caught fire at the right time, as they get a day off before hosting the Atlanta Braves this week. We should see some value prices during that three-game set.Though the Pittsburgh Pirates lost 7-2 to the Washington Nationals, they remain the most impressive investment with a 20-9 mark that would have profited more than $1,300 with a $100 wager on all 29 games. The Bucs have been an underdog in 20 of those games. They open a tough three-game set in Tampa on Tuesday, which will likely bring some high prices to pay attention to.The dreaded Oakland Athletics pulled out a victory over the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday, and went over for the 19th time this season. The A's are tied for the league lead with 19 Overs. They're now 19-9-1 Over this season, tied with the Boston Red Sox, who are 19-10 Over this season. Flipside, the Yankees are 10-18 Under on the year, with the defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies just behind with 17 Unders in their 29 games.SEA DRAGONS ARE NO KRAKEN - In the XFL on Sunday, the Seattle Sea Dragons couldn't keep up with their NHL brethren, as they were stomped out of the postseason by the DC Defenders, who won 37-21 to easily cover the 1 1/2. Tied 9-9 at halftime, the Defenders scored 14 points in both the third and fourth quarters to cruise into the championship game, where they're laying -6 points to the Arlington Renegades. In their lone meeting during the regular season, the Defenders eked by the Renegades 28-26 in overtime on April 16, despite being outgained by Arlington on offense, 434-314. The total in the championship game is 46 1/2 points.

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Conference Titans: Jokic and Embiid

by AAA Sports

Monday, May 01, 2023

As the NBA playoffs grind into the conference semifinals, a lot of light will be directed on the performances of two-time reigning MVP Nicola Jokic and this year’s expected regular season MVP, Joel Embiid.They have so much in common, these massive men. They have size in a league that has gotten smaller and faster, they can dominate when it’s needed, they can shoot 3s and they are in the primes of their careers in their late-20s. If Jokic’s Nuggets or Embiid’s 76ers win the title this year, it’s a near-lock that one of them will have to be the Finals MVP. Oddsmakers placed Jokic third at +800 and Embiid a tick back of him at +900, behind only Boston’s Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant of Phoenix.The comparisons end there, though, simply because Jokic is healthy and Embiid is not.Looking almost like a burned-out accountant bored with his job, Jokic and the Nuggets dominated the star-laden Suns in Game 1 of their series Saturday night, and can turn the vise even tighter Monday night in Denver. If the big guy is bothered by a series of Nuggets playoff flame-outs during his career, he’s not showing it. Phoenix might have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and whatever is left of Chris Paul, but those four were a combined minus-71 on Saturday night while Jokic ho-hummed his way to a plus-19.Injuries to teammates Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, plus Golden State’s Western Conference dominance, have kept Jokic and the Nuggets from making it out of the conference. They came closest in 2020 but were pantsed by the Lakers in the Bubble.Fast forward to today, and the Jokic-led Nuggets are +550 to win the title, with the center +950 to win the Finals MVP trophy. The latter number will certainly dwindle a bit if Denver makes it two in a row over Phoenix on Monday night, lessening the chance that Durant (+700) even gets to June.In the East, Embiid and the 76ers figure to have all sorts of problems figuring out a way to beat a healthy Celtics team four times in the next two weeks. If Embiid plays at all, he won’t be at anything near 100 percent after suffering a sprained knee in Philly’s first-round sweep of the Nets. And while the 76ers were able to take care of business in Game 4 vs. Brooklyn, no one thinks Philly has a chance against Boston if Embiid is in street clothes.Embiid being banged up in the playoffs is more than a bit ironic and discouraging because he’s coming off the two healthiest regular seasons of his career – 66 games played this year and 68 the year before. And he basically sewed up the MVP Award in early April when he torched the Celtics for 52 points. That effort produced a rare win over Boston for the 76ers, who lost to the Celtics the other three times they played this year and can’t seem to get past their rival in the Northeast.Captain Obvious could tell you that without Embiid (+900 to win the Finals MVP but a heavy favorite to win the regular season award), Philadelphia will, for the 40th consecutive season, be knocked out of the playoff at some point  -- mostly like in these Eastern Conference semifinals for the fifth straight time.Game 1 vs. Boston (Celtics -9) is Monday night and the Sixers say that Embiid is doubtful despite getting the gift of a few extra days rest when the Celtics surprisingly lost Game 5 at home to Atlanta.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 01, 2023

The Monday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL.The National Basketball Association playoffs continue with two playoff games in the conference semifinals on TNT. The Boston Celtics host the Philadelphia 76ers at 7:30 PM ET in the opening game of their best-of-seven series. The Celtics won for the seventh time in their last nine games in a 128-120 win at Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Thursday to close that series out in six games. The 76ers are on a six-game winning streak after completing their sweep of the Nets with a 96-88 win at Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite on April 22nd. Boston is a 10-point favorite, with the total set at 213.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Phoenix Suns at 10:05 PM ET. The Nuggets won for the sixth time in their last seven games with a 125-107 win against the Suns as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday in the opening game of this seven-game series. The Suns were on a four-game winning streak before the loss. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with the final game in the conference quarterfinals. The New Jersey Devils are at home against the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Rangers forced a seventh game in this series with a 5-2 victory at home on Saturday. The Devils are a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Monday card in Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. The Atlanta Braves travel to New York to play the Mets in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:10 PM ET as a -245 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Braves play the Mets in the second game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play in Washington against the Nationals as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Boston to play the Red Sox at 7:10 PM ET as a -145 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. The Houston Astros play at home against the San Francisco Giants on FS1 at 8:10 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 9:40 PM ET as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies at 10:10 PM ET as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Leicester City plays at home against Everton on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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Contrarianism as Fool's Gold: UConn and Getting Out of the Way of a Freight Train

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

At first glance, it looked perhaps too easy to side with the Connecticut Huskies against the San Diego State Aztecs in the college basketball National Championship Game. UConn had been a freight train in the Big Dance with all five of their victories by 13 or more points. They dominated a well-coached Miami Hurricanes despite Jordan Hawkins dealing with a stomach bug and Andre Jackson, Jr. only playing 22 minutes due to foul trouble. Most of the college basketball experts were siding with the Huskies to win and cover the 7.5 points they were laying as the favorite. The betting public was more mixed as they were giving more credit to an Aztecs team that was one of the best defensive teams in the nation to keep things close. I like fading the cadre of college basketball experts when their group think form a clear consensus on a side. But this was not a situation to get too cute. Sometimes the contrarian play is the wrong side — and that became evident in UConn’s 76-59 victory to easily win and cover the point spread. Thankfully, I thought better of my contrarian instincts in this instance. Here are a few of the reasons why. Jim Larranaga did not have many answers to slow down the Huskies in the Final Four — and San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher has 48 hours to address that conundrum. UConn demonstrated their vast potential in the fall — and after hitting a couple of bumps early in Big East play, they were steamrolling teams again. The Huskies had covered 16 straight games against non-conference opponents with an average winning margin of +24.7 points per game — and they have covered the point spread by +11.9 points per game in those 16 contests. There is a logic to that success. Head coach Dan Hurley felt his team is particularly difficult to prepare against — especially if the team lacked familiarity with the Huskies' approach. As Gonzaga head coach Mark Few said after their 28-point loss to UConn last weekend, only 48 hours to prepare his team to play UConn was overwhelming. Handling Adama Sanoga’s post-up game is a chore — and then Donovan Clingan presents an entirely different challenge in the lob game. Defending Hawkins coming off the Huskies’ multiple off-ball sets and screens is demanding. Jackson presents a challenge in his role as a point forward. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning their four previous games by double-digits. Their floor for scoring in this game was probably at least 68 points — they had reached that number in ten straight games while scoring at least 82 points six times in that stretch. But it was the play of the Huskies’ defense that is even more impressive. They held the Hurricanes to just 32% shooting and below 60 points despite them ranking sixth in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They stymied Gonzaga to just 54 points despite the Bulldogs leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Now they were playing an Atzecs team that is susceptible to scoring droughts. San Diego State has scored no more than 75 points in ten straight games — and they had scored 64 or fewer points in six of those contests. They were only making 33.3% of their 3-pointers in this tournament — so a hot shooting night from outside the arc seemed unlikely. The Aztecs took many of their shots from the midrange — and now they were playing a UConn team that ranked sixth in the nation by holding their last ten opponents on the road to 42.9% shooting inside the arc. The Aztecs were the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite Eight game and then their Final Four game by just one point. They had endured a difficult schedule — but they had been good matchups for them since FAU, Alabama, Creighton, Furman, and the College of Charleston all lived (and died) by their 3-point shooting. While UConn was a good 3-point shooting team, they probably had the most reliable scoring threats inside the arc that San Diego State will have played. Sanoga was shooting 63.9% from inside the arc — and Clingon makes 65.9% of his 2-point shots. Jackson was making 54.1% of his shots inside the arc — and starter Alex Karaban was making 59.8% of his 2-pointers. The Aztecs had dug themselves into several holes in this tournament — but they had used their defense and offensive rebounding to climb back against Alabama, Creighton, and FAU. Not only does UConn have reliable scoring options to stop scoring slumps but they also ranked 67th in the nation by holding their opponents to rebounding 25.9% of their missed shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less. They had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning six or more games in a row — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning nine or more games in a row. UConn had covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. They held their opponents to 40.1% shooting while making 46.5% of their shots. San Diego State had failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 42% — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams who make at least 45% of their shots while holding their opponents to 42% or lower shooting.There was one final nugget that convinced me to strongly endorse and invest heavily in the Huskies. UConn was the sixth team in the history of the NCAA Tournament to win their first five games in the tournament by 13 or more points. Four of those previous five teams then went on to win the Championship Game by double-digits: Michigan State won by 13 points in 2000; Duke won by 10 points in 2001; North Carolina won by 17 points in 2009; Villanova won by 17 points in 2018. The 2016 Tar Heels were the lone team to lose in the Championship Game after beating their first five opponents by 13 or more points — and they played a Villanova team with more balance and scoring threats than this Aztecs’ group. That 2018 Villanova team was of particular significance to me since I had taken the contrarian route in backing Michigan in that game. I learned a lesson from that game. Avoid standing in front of freight trains if what you are looking at is, in fact, a freight train. Sometimes contrarianism is Fool’s Gold. And sometimes the college basketball expert class gets one right when they form a near-consensus. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. More importantly, we won our College Basketball Game of the Year by seeing the forest through the trees regarding the Connecticut Huskies.Best of luck — Frank.  

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Betting Numbers (not sides) -- and the Value of Passing

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

When the Milwaukee Bucks got upset for the second-straight time to the Miami Heat in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, it sure seemed at first glance like they would offer a nice opportunity for bettors in Game Five back at home. The problem with this logic is that if a vast majority of bettors also feel this way, then the resulting point spread number may not offer value relative to the situation. Bettors make a mistake if they become fixated exclusively on the circumstances -- without taking into account the corresponding point spread number. In this instance, the books placed Milwaukee as a favorite back at home as an 11.5-point favorite. So, the real question was: after the Heat pulled off two straight upset wins and now were traveling to play a Bucks team motivated to avoid playoff elimination after being upset in two straight games enough to expect them to win by 12 or more points? Empirical situational angles can be helpful to ascertain how teams in similar situations have responded relative to the point spread. However, when the point spread gets so high, the relevant sample size gets diluted. How many NBA teams coming off two straight upset losses and were now staving off elimination were then laying double-digits? One could go back 50 years to extract more numbers for that sample size, but does data prior to the establishment of the 3-point line really add insight to this situation? Sometimes the large point spread is indicative of just how resounding the favored team will respond. But sometimes it simply reveals how committed the betting public is to a narrative. The Bucks had failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite — but the public was still zombie-betting Milwaukee despite Giannis Antetokounmpo not being 100%. The Bucks closed as a 13-point favorite in many locations. At a certain point, one simply has to pass. Fortunately, I concluded with a "No, thank you" on this proposition. I was not going to consider playing the Heat under those circumstances. But I have seen better results in my handicapping when accepting that sometimes the best way to utilize situations that I "like" is to use it simply say "no" to the other side. Passing is fine. Avoiding losers is good! For me, that Milwaukee had most recently failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss was concerning. I was troubled that they had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points. They had not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The warning signs were there. Miami was also demonstrating that it is possible for "Heat Culture" to simply flip the switch in the postseason. I was so dismayed by their effort in their opening Play-In Tournament against Atlanta two weeks ago -- and that included Jimmy Butler. Things have changed. The Heat not only pulled a third straight upset in the playoffs by beating the Bucks in Milwaukee to end that series in five games, but they pulled off that trick again with a fourth straight upset victory against New York in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. Sometimes the best option on the table is to pass. The number has to reflect the value of the prospective situation. Best of luck — Frank.

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The Value of 1st Half Plays in the Bettor's Tool Box

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Apr 30, 2023

The Team had three winners with NBA 1st Half plays in the NBA playoffs in the last week, including our NBA Round One Playoff Game of the Year on Memphis covering the 1st Half point spread against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday. Some bettors and handicappers consider 1st Half plays to be simply regurgitations of full game plays. Tell that to bettors on the New York Knicks today in their opening game in their Round Two series with Miami or the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday in their Game 4 against the Heat. Both those two teams covered the 1st Half point spread after being installed as the favorite for the first 24 minutes of the game, yet went on to lose the game. Granted, if the lone reason for liking the 1st Half play is just repeating the reasons to like that team to cover the point spread for the entire game, then the logic is limited. Doubling and tripling down on the same basic argument is what got Adam Sandler in trouble in Uncut Gems. Yet specific arguments to support the 1st Half play while keeping that oddsmakers 1st Half number in mind are good reasons to consider these plays unique and valuable. When used carefully, taking the 1st Half options offered by the oddsmakers presents successful bettors and handicappers an additional weapon in their arsenal to extract profits. Let’s look closer at these three 1st Half winners in the NBA this week. The New York Knicks had an average halftime lead this season of 2.6 points going into the first game of their series with the Miami Heat. Of more significance for this 1st Half wager, the Knicks led the league with a 51-30-1 ats mark in the 1st Half this season. At home, they held their opponents to only 54.8 points in the 1st Half which allowed them to go into the locker room with an average lead of 5.1 points. They had a 26-14-1 ats record in the 1st Half when playing at home which was the second-best mark in the league. When the oddsmakers installed them as favorites in the 1st Half, New York had a 24-16 ats mark, the third-best record in the NBA. When playing teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better, they had a 31-12-1 ats record, the best ats record in the NBA. The Knicks last played on Wednesday when they finished their series against Cleveland with a 106-95 victory. They had covered the point spread in nine of their thirteen 1st Halves when playing again after taking three or more days off. They held the Cavaliers to only 46.1 points in the 1st Half in their five games against them in round one of the playoffs. Their average halftime lead against Cleveland was 3.2 points. They covered the 1st Half point spread in four of those games with the lone exception being Game 2 on the road in Cleveland.Miami pulled off three straight upsets to stun the Milwaukee Bucks last round. Yet most of those victories came from surprising 2nd Half efforts by the Heat. They trailed at halftime in three of their five games against the Bucks. Miami had the fourth-worst ats record in the 1st Half in the regular season. They had an even 56.5 points scored and allowed average in the 1st Half this season. When playing on the road, the Heat were getting outscored by 1.0 points in the 1st Half. In their five-game series with Milwaukee, they went into the locker room at halftime trailing by an average of 2.7 points with the Bucks averaging 63.1 points. In all seven of their postseason games, Miami was outscored by 3.3 points in the 1st Half. The Heat were 12-point underdogs in Game 5 before upsetting Milwaukee, 128-126 in overtime to win that series. Considering that Miami has covered the point spread only eight times in their last thirty-four games after covering the point spread in their previous game, a flat effort from the Heat seems likely, at least early in the game. The Knicks covered the point 2 to 3 points they were laying in the 1st Half by going into halftime with a 55-50 score. Yet Miami outscored them, 58-46, to pull the upset by a 108-101 score. In hindsight, bypassing the New York full game play and only taking the Knicks minus the points in the 1st Half was the preferred option. On Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies found themselves trailing by a 3-1 margin in this series after losing in overtime in Los Angeles to the Lakers on Monday, 117-111. The strategy for head coach Taylor Jenkins seems for his team to start fast and loose to feed off the energy of the crowd and crush the morale of this veteran Lakers team. Lebron James and Anthony Davis knew full well that the reward for pulling out Game 4 was that they have two games in hand even if they lose this game. Conserving energy may become a higher priority for Los Angeles if they fall behind early. The Grizzlies had been a fast-starting team all season as they went into halftime with an average lead of 3.8 points. When playing at home, Memphis averaged 62.8 points in the 1st half and goes into the locker room at halftime with an average lead of 7.9 points. Their 53-32-1 ats record in the 1st half was the best in the NBA. They had covered the point spread in the 1st half in all four games in this series, and they had covered the 1st Half point spread in seven of their last ten games against the Lakers. Los Angeles had exerted plenty of energy in outscoring the Grizzlies by six points in the overtime period in Game 4 Monday. Even without considering the physical toll of a playoff series, the Lakers had been a slow-starting team this season. Los Angeles had gone into the locker room at halftime with an average score of 58 to 58. On the road, the Lakers were being outscored by 1.9 points in the 1st half. In their five games in the postseason, they had been outscored by 2.8 points in the 1st half while only putting up 51.8 points. The strength of this Lakers team is their ability to step up their game in the clutch. Los Angeles had a 59-27 ats record in the fourth quarter this season, the best mark in the NBA. This reflects not only the veteran savvy of James and Davis but also the team’s attention to conserving their energy for winnable opportunities. We predicted that if the Lakers fall too far behind in the second half, they would likely take their foot off the gas pedal by the fourth quarter (and the oddsmakers will adjust their fourth quarter line with the game out of hand with the benches coming on). Yet if Los Angeles finds themselves with a good opportunity to end this series tonight (and gain the extra few days of rest), James and Davis would step up their game in the final twelve minutes. That was the situation we wanted to avoid, and that is why we did not endorse Memphis as a full game play. The Grizzlies successfully covered the 2 to 3 points they were favored by in the 1st Half by going into halftime with a 61-52 lead. Given the final score of 116-99, one could assume that simply making the full-game bet was the same choice. Yet it is not as if playing an ats side winner in the 1st Half is not an argument that they will not cover the point spread for the game. A bettor can take an underdog yet decline the money line bet for taking the points despite suspecting that an upset may be in the cards. It is about preferred choices. Later, the Lakers pulled within one point in the second half with the score 75-74 with under four minutes to. Memphis then went on a 26-2 run to put the game away. If not for that surge, perhaps the Lakers win the game. Los Angeles went on to blowout the Grizzlies on Wednesday, 125-85. On Monday, the Bucks found themselves at risk of falling behind, 3-1, in this series to that ever-dangerous Miami Heat team which had three pending 2nd half comebacks forthcoming in their next three playoff games. With the expectation that Giannis Antetokounmpo returning to the court after being injured, the oddsmakers and the market had responded by moving Milwaukee up from a road favorite in the five-point range to them now favored in the eight-point range. We considered those are a lot of points to offer a home underdog like Miami with so much playoff experience. Instead, we preferred the 1st half bet. After falling behind, 66-53, at halftime in Game 4, the Bucks would be determined to get off to a fast start. They had covered the point spread in eleven of their last twelve games after getting upset as the favorite in their previous game. They play well on the road against good teams and had covered the point spread in ten of their last fourteen games on the road against teams with a winning home record. They were going into halftime with an average lead of 2.1 points when playing on the road. Miami had outscored their opponents in the first half this season, yet they have been outscored by 2.0 points in the first half in their five postseason games this season. That trend continued in Game 4 as they went into halftime with a 57-50 lead. Yet they got outscored in the 2nd Half, 69-57, to lose the game by five points. Like with the Knicks in Game 1 of their series with the Heat, the profitable rout in bacon the Bucks was only the 1st Half ats side option.  In basketball, 1st Half plays are distinct from full-game side plays. Oftentimes, they are the preferred betting option. They remain an important tool in Team Del Genio’s ways to beat the books.Good luck - TDG.

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